Great analysis, Michel!!

I must say, I was pretty surprised by Alina's torch getting snuffed. I guess mainly because it gave Naonka some cred (in her having stated it last week) Still, I guess her consistent edit up until now, was for that of the first juror (like Marcus, Brendan, or Eric from Samoa)

Interesting to read your thoughts on Jud (can't bear to call him Fabio) I was already figuring him to be the last male standing and even in my top 4. And as you've stated there appears to be a case for him winning.

The scene you mention between him and Alina does seem pivotal, and even seems to have had some forewshadowing with earlier episode previews, like when Jud's name was left out from being mentioned with Alina and Kelly B's link to the wrong side of the vote with Shannon. When first viewed it could have been perceived that it was unfavorable for him not to be mentioned. But now that they are both gone, it is good that he was edited out of that scenerio.

Another thing about his scene with Alina is that she reminded us that "It seemed we got along too" And I would say they did, and moreso than Alina getting along with Nay. Compare this scene to the blatant confessional that Naonka made following her scene with Alina, about how she was softening up to Alina to work on jury votes. I found this very peculiar that it was stated so straight-forward. My inclination was to think 1) Nay will make it to the final 3, and 2) the editors are already starting to plant seeds for us to think that Nay may actually have a chance to win. I don't think she does. Nor do I think that Nay will get Alina's vote. I think the more subtle hint of Jud and Alina's scene showed that she will more likely vote for Jud.

It's interesting that in the beginning of Act 3: the merge, we revisit the Jud and Nay connections, just like we did in Act 1, pre-swap. (Will we again see this pairing in the final act?) The first showings of Jud and Nay could've been viewed as the editors merely taking advantage of the more "character" type castaways in the earlier act. They sure took advantage of lots of her nay-saying ;) While this did remind me of Sandra and Jon's portrayal in Pearl Island, now it appears confirmed. Jud and Nay have a similar bantor to them. And both pairs appeared to be the weakest (or in some way the least likely to make it the end) from their tribe. I feel though, this time around, Jud is the more likeable antagonist, equating him more to Sandra. She went on to win, as may he, while Nay may finish 3rd, just like Jon. Will be interesting to see if these similaries hold true.

Also, I like your thoughts on Jane as fan fave. In another link to Pearl Island's, she's getting a bit of the quirky, island thriving Rupert-esque spin on her edit. Makes her more endearing, even through some of her more negative scenes. Personally, I think she's awesome