During the recap we heard Jeff saying: “After a surprise switch, the young and old were combined but, on each tribe, the young adopted a feisty older mom to get the upper hand.
The Espada youth picked up Holly…
And the LaFlor kids picked up Jane.
That left everyone else north of forty out in the cold.
<Note that everyone apparently meant only Marty and Jill because Dan and Yve weren’t shown>

Then, an even bigger surprise sent both tribes reeling…Both tribes will vote somebody out of this game.
At LaFlor, Brenda and Sash were in complete control.
They wanted to flush out Marty’s hidden immunity idol and blindside Kelly B.
At Tribal Council, Sash and Brenda were sure that Marty would play his idol…
…But he shocked them by holding on to it.
Marty’s gamble paid off because he kept his idol and Kelly B went home.
Now Marty and his ally Jill are 2 against 5.

At the Espada Tribal Council, the youth had to decide between Yve, whose strength could help them in challenges, and Dan who, because of his bad knee, would never be a threat.
In the end, Yve’s strength was her undoing.

The first thing to note is that the recap was extremely generous to Sash and Brenda. The way it was presented, they never targeted Marty himself, only his idol and Kelly was their true target. Marty stayed in the game with his idol not because the two “in control” made a terrible mistake but simply because his huge gamble worked. On the other hand, Jeff saying that they are in complete control isn’t very good as far as Survivor goes because the editors like to set up blindsides.

We should also note the positive way Jeff described the two players that betrayed their alliances: They were called feisty moms when they could have been called traitors.

Behind The 8 Ball

Espada
Night 15

Hugging both Na’Onka and Alina to thank them for keeping him around, Dan said: “They used to call John Gotti the “Teflon Don” because every time they tried to get him on something, it could never stick. I feel like “Teflon Dan”.

Chase: “At Tribal Council, we discussed the original plan and voted out Yve tonight but I am a little concerned about Dan’s performance. It would be a hard pill to swallow if Dan costs us the challenges but we made our decisions, we made our bed and we have to lay in it.”

Chase then told Nay and Holly: “Dan’s not near as much of a threat once we get to the merge. Right now, what we have to do, what’s next is Alina is out.

Na’Onka: “Alina is strong and she’s very smart. From day one, she has these eyes that can see straight through you. I never trusted her at all so we need to get Alina out next.”

Chase, Na’Onka and Holly agreed on that plan.

Chase remained tied to Na’Onka while we heard yet again that Alina is the endangered one. Now, apparently she can’t even count on Holly even if she reminded her of her daughter. Like Marty and Jill, she is behind the 8 ball but “The Perils of Alina” could also serve as title. It’s a recurring theme of her season so far and, since there were no Tribal Councils to set up, no immediate doubt to instill, that story has long-term prospects. Note also that Alina wasn’t mentioned as a target because she was not liked but because they see her as a smart and dangerous player.

LaFlor

Marty’s first words were “Can I just say Wow!”
Jill wanted to know why they weren’t told that Kelly was the target.
Fabio said they wanted to flush the idol.
Marty then wondered why they put votes on him.
Sash simply replied that it was because he had the idol.

Marty: “You got to have big cojones to pull the move that I pulled tonight which is I did not play the immunity idol. I kept that immunity idol in my pocket and I debated long and hard and something told me to hang on to it and I was right. I also have to get to the bottom of Jane who obviously voted for me so that is going to have to be dealt with. She turned on me. She’s a desperate one and she has been from the beginning and she has to go.”

Again, nothing was said about LaFlor missing the opportunity to eliminate Marty since it is said that their only target was the idol. Even Marty seemed to have forgotten that is opponent is Brenda because he’s focused on getting Jane. It’s good that Brenda (and Sash) isn’t presented as a Dumb Player but, oddly, it takes away some continuity to LaFlor’s story. It’s as if the explosions are more important than the overall plan. They really are like the young Nicaraguan Volcanoes.

LaFlor
Day 16

Marty talked to Jane, wanting to know why she had voted against him.
Jane just laughed at the notion that she had written his name.

Jill: “Kelly B going home buys Marty and I another three days. I’m hoping Jane is going next but Marty and I are scrambling around from behind the 8-ball. I don’t know if it’s going to work.”

The Challenge

When LaFlor walked in the challenge area, the screen showed Brenda as she smiled and winked at the camera. We even heard a little bell sound to underline it.

(Just missed the wink!)

When Espada walked in, we did see Marty but not really to show him reacting to his ally Dan still being in the game. It was almost as if it wasn’t important.

The camera also likes Fabio as we had several close-ups of his smile as he defended LaFlor’s goal. We even heard the same bell that sounded for Brenda’s wink but Fabio spit water at “us” instead of winking. Any thoughts that this scene was good for him, disappeared when we heard how he had used the pool. (Dumb!)
Benry scored a nice goal, Jeff praising his double fake-out (foreshadowing a double-cross maybe?!) and Fabio adding: “That was a good move, guys. Remember that one.” (and would that double-cross bite Jud in the butt or work because of Jud!)
Marty hit Chase below the belt!
The game was another example of Dan’s weakness, his throw stopped effortlessly by Jud.

Kelly scored one of LaFlor’s goals and, not only did we see her reaction...


...but we heard a confessional from her: “Reward was for a horseback ride and breakfast and you get to milk your own milk if that makes sense…That sounds amazing. We should have won.”

LaFlor
Day 17
Jane: “We lost the reward but it makes you get up and do things and keep going. The word quit is not in my vocabulary. I work all day long cause I’m a farm girl and farm girls have a strong heart and a strong will. I could do a whole lot more than Marty and Jill ever thought I could do. I’m trying to stay in the good graces of the 4 tribe members I have made friends with over at the LaFlor team. They can lounge around, that is OK as long as they feel I’m important. I don’t care what they do right now. I’m not going to tell them to get off their lazy little asses Let them sleep, let them relax, as long as we win challenges, that’s all I care about.”

I found it extremely interesting, in view of what was to come at the challenge and in his following interview, that it was Sash who told Jane: “Just let me know when you need me.” It means that Sash was the one we should see as the lazy one. He didn’t even help win that challenge. I presume that was to prepare us for when Jane doesn’t tell Sash that she needs him, that she’ll hold it against him when she flips again.

Sash: “The older people who came over from Espada can work their butts off, feed me all day long and they’ll help me get stronger. I love it: I get to stay home all day, relax, eat the fruits of their labor while they go out and work hard. I give them a lot of credit but this is a game and, in the long run, for me, who stays in this game isn’t about how hard you work in camp, it’s about how loyal you are to me.”

I feel the credit Sash gave to the old members of Espada is directly proportional to the blame the editors wanted us to give him. Selfishness doesn’t win jury votes and, if we had winners who said nasty things about others players, those winners were never presented as parasites. This is telling us why Sash will either be voted out or will lose the necessary jury votes.

The Reward

Chase: “We won the reward and.. it was unbelievable. (Note that, while Chase was talking and riding, the camera was more focused on Alina’s smile than him) I grew up on a horse farm in Florida and since my dad passed away, we stopped having any horses in our barn…You get a lot of time to reflect on stuff you miss and I really miss my dad… This is like he is with me.”

The milking of the cow showed us that Dan is better at something than Na’Onka!

Nay: “I’m not a farm person…”

Back to LaFlor

Jane: “People that don’t fish with me shouldn’t get all the riches. I’ve been up since 5:30, working to catch fish. I’m starving. I want me a fish and I’m gone eat this one I just caught. I deserve it.” (The howling monkeys seemed to disagree!) “They sat me on the last challenge and they lost the food reward. That’s my food reward…This is the first thing I’ve done behind anybody’s back except vote for Marty…Bon appétit!”

The Feast
Holly: “Not eating for 16 days and seeing the food, I actually started to shake. We take for granted sitting down and having a meal together. We’ve been together for how many days? The six of us sitting down and being so appreciative of a meal, it became very emotional for a lot of us.”

Inserted during that confessional, Holly told the group: “Alina and Chase, you’ve called our camp home.”
The emotions we were supposed to feel were expressed by Alina who started to cry. She hugged Holly and said: “I’m glad you feel me on this emotion thing.”

Not everyone was feeling her!
Na’Onka: “Alina is so grimy. She is so grimy and so sneaky. I think she got emotional because she is trying to keep herself in the game but I can put on a show just like Alina. I have been playing a role, we have been getting close you know but it’s all part my plan and the next thing you know, you will be walking away and your torch is going to be put out.”

Knowing how Survivor loves those who show emotions, it’s pretty easy to predict which player will see their torch being snuffed.

Immunity Challenge

When Jeff asked who would sit out the challenge for LaFlor, everyone was surprised when Sash said he would. Even the maestro dropped his baton and the music stopped! Na’Onka and Benry were shocked, the camera returned to Sash to make sure we had seen it right and finally, Jeff said Sash would sit out.

As noted above, it makes Sash look bad that Jane said she would tolerate LaFlor’s laziness as long as they won challenges. Sash himself wanted to be fed to grow stronger and then he decided to sit out. Of course, it had to be shown that he was the one sitting out but his previous interview didn’t. That pause in the action certainly reminded us that it was a weird decision.

Benry and Alina were up top for Espada while Brenda and Kelly threw the cannon balls for LaFlor.
While Kelly hit on Laflor’s first shot, we had a feeling that there was much more disagreements in setting the ramp on Yellow’s side because Marty, Jill and Jud kept arguing with Brenda and Kelly.
Espada’s decisions were much smoother just like in the game.
Even if Benry hit her in the face while lining up a shot...

...Alina trusted his aim. Brenda and Fabio could only argue, Brenda saying: “Last time I listened to you.”

After Espada won immunity, Kelly said to Brenda: “I really thought we could have had that.”
I wondered of she meant only this challenge or the whole game!
Asked about back-to-back wins, Alina told Jeff: “It feels absolutely amazing.”

Jeff told them to use the afternoon to figure things out and Jill had an interview: “Losing immunity today for me means that we go to back to tribal council and the way things are shaping up, the other LaFlor members want either Marty or I gone and, since he has the immunity idol, it means it will probably be me.”

Jill really had the role of a pawn because we never even heard her trying to save herself. In the end, she was a dumb player because this was a direct result of both giving Marty the clue to the idol and convincing him to show it to everyone.

LaFlor
Day 18: Go Figure

“Fabs”, getting rid of his dumb blonde act, told Brenda and Sash: “We got to put 3 on Marty, two on Jill. Make Marty play the idol so Jill and whoever they vote for…
Brenda noted: “Which is me.”
Fabio continued: “…are tied and then we all vote Jill off.”

Jane agreed saying: “I’m a firm believer in what goes around, comes around.”

Jane: “Marty and Jill have treated me like I don’t exist from day 1, going all the way back to the old Espada tribe. I really felt like the ugly duckling over there and I know I earned the respect of Brenda, Purple Kelly, Fabio and Sash. At tribal council, I hope that Marty goes home. It’s still icing on the cake if Jill goes home. I want the cake and I want to eat it too and I want both of them gone.”

Jane seemed to be part of the discussion where Sash brought up the idea of getting the idol from Marty in exchange for a promise to stay but we never saw her in the same picture. Was she in on it?

Fabio: “Right now the plan is to put 3 of our votes on Marty and 2 on Jill and tell Marty: “Bro, you have to play the idol” so he does. Then it will be a tie between Jill and whoever Marty and…Jill vote. On the revote, Jill ends up going home.”

Brenda told Sash that if he could get the idol from Marty in exchange for a promise to vote Jill out, they should vote him out.

Brenda: “Tonight, either Marty or Jill is going to go home. That’s the plan. Sash and I are both stuck on what is the right thing to do and we are wondering if we could be super-mean, ask Marty for the idol and vote his ass out.”

Sash promised Marty that he would be safe if he handed the idol over.
Marty objected that he’d simply go out next time.
Sash then added: “If you give it to me, I’ll look you in the eye, shake your hand again, if we lose next time, I will give you back the idol.”

Marty: “Right now, I feel absolutely powerless in every way, shape or form. If I keep the idol, I have to use the idol tonight. So, I give Sash the idol, maybe I go home tonight, maybe I don’t. I got to give the idol to somebody. I’m either giving it to Jeff tonight or I’m giving it to Sash.”

He gave it to Sash, saying: “A curse at times, a good thing at times, the immunity idol is yours.”

Marty: “I’d rather give it to Sash because, maybe, if he lives up to his word, I would maybe live one more cycle. One more cycle could potentially get me to the merge and then things are wide open.”

Being cynical, I would say that Burnett is bringing the merge a few cycles early just to help you out. He did it for Russell in Samoa, didn’t he? But that is for Bashers!!

Sash: “Well, it turns out I don’t even have to dig for idols; all I have to do is ask for them. People will literally hand me an idol just because I may or may not keep them in the game a little longer. Marty made a big mistake. That’s probably his biggest mistake in the game.”

Tribal Council

Fabio: “I think they are a strong tribe. I think we are also strong…I think tomorrow, at the next challenge, it will be an even playing field.”
Asked what had been the fallout of the previous TC, Jane answered: “We got together and we talked, the ones that have meshed together, and we made a decision.”
Marty: “We came in as a minority in this tribe and some of us made more of a flip-flop while some of us tried to incorporate ourselves where we felt we fit in. Jane is a flipper; she’ll go wherever the wind blows in terms of making sure she saves her own skin.”
Jane replied: “When we became yellow, I became yellow. That is the way I look at it.”
Asked if she felt that from Jane, Brenda said: “Totally, from day 1. She’s very genuine. She never really tried to make an alliance; it just became a natural friendship.”
Jill: “Clearly, it’s still an old/young division. It’s a little frustrating to be put in that situation but it is my obligation to play out of it.”
Asked about his decision to hold on to the idol the last time, Marty said it could be seen as either a stupid move or a gutsy move and he went with his gut. He added: “Tonight, this is the first time I feel I may have made a mistake. I’m at a disadvantage now so do you trust somebody and transfer the idol?”
Jeff was surprised by this. He asked Brenda if she was worried about the idol, if she knew who had it. Brenda said Sash had it.
Sash: “The idol in my pocket.”
Jane was as surprised as Jeff. She said: “I didn’t know it was in his pocket.”
Marty: “In talking with Sash, we agreed that I would transfer the idol to him.”

If we were to think it was all Sash’s doing, the camera showed Brenda’s reaction, telling us it was part of her game plan. That bell sounded again in case we were about to miss it!

Asked if Marty was justified in being worried of making a blunder, Fabio said: “It is very reasonable because we could easily vote him out tonight but either way, we have the idol so we come out on top.”
Jeff asked Brenda about Fabio’s “we have the idol”.
Brenda: “I think it is ok to say “we” because that is how much we trust Sash.”
Always the one to stir trouble, Jeff asked Sash: “Do you want to give it to Brenda to hold on to?”
Sash tried to get out of it and was successful at first: “If that’s what we decide as a group then maybe, back at camp, I might do that. At this moment, I don’t think it serves a purpose.” Then he added: “But, if there’s a time when I lose trust in them…” Jeff liked that! “Sorry, if there is a time when they lose trust in me then I will have to turn it over or I will have the biggest target on my back.”
Jeff had to ask about that “Freudian slip.”
Brenda laughed.
Sash said: “That’s not what I meant to say but that’s what I said.”
Jeff asked Jud if he was familiar with Freud. (Was Jeff trying to blow Jud’s dumb blonde cover or playing along with it?)
Jud: “I’m a little bit familiar with Freudian psychology. It might have been the whole 90% of the subconscious coming out.”
Asked if it would linger in her brain, Brenda diplomatically said: “It was a slip.”
Jane: “If you watch this game, every time you give up the idol, it comes back to haunt you.”

During the vote, we saw Jane and Jud voting Marty. He voted for Jane saying: “This game isn’t over yet.” Jill did the same even if voting “Marty” could have saved her on a revote.

Jeff’s final words: “It’s obvious by the vote that this tribe is voting based on loyalty. The question is: How long can that loyalty last?”

The Story

LaFlor really lives up to the “young volcanoes” image from the season’s opening. Their tribal councils have all been a very interesting mix of strategy and personalities assessing each other. Compared to the “Ancient Rain Forest” of Espada, it has been much more explosive but the rain forest is where the dangerous animals live. The merge should be fascinating with the LaFlor 5 still intact but with Jud now so close to Sash and Brenda that they consult him on decisions and call him “Fabs”!

The Characters:

Kelly: By finally getting an interview, editing analysis tells us that she could be on the way out but game analysis doesn’t put her in any danger. She will vote with Brenda and Sash and that seems to be the extent of her impact.

Dan: Despite Chase’s words, the merge is the time when the weak players really become threats, everyone targeting the big guys. Dan calling himself the “Teflon Dan” could be a story we have neglected so maybe we should spend more time on analyzing his edit but I’ll let others make a case for him. I’d expect another player would have reflected about his ability to save himself if it were to be a winning story. Dan is just someone we have to endure, a character only because this is reality TV and they can’t erase him from our screens.

Na’Onka: Getting two negative confessionals during a reward tells us her “Villain” edit is being ramped up. It should soon reach “escape velocity” and send her all the way to Loser Lodge! Her first interview, about not being a farm girl, showed that she isn’t deserving of being considered a Survivor. The following one about Alina being grimy and sneaky only served to reinforce Alina’s underdog story.

Benry: No one commented yet on all his challenge prowess, how they either love him for it or fear that he will go on an immunity run later on so that tells me it won’t come into play. He may win one or two of the post-merge immunities but not the one he’d need. With the early merge, the attention given Alina should turn to him but he doesn’t have the same underdog story at all. He didn’t get a confessional during that reward; it was as if he wasn’t there. Winners aren’t ignored during rewards so his fans will have to forget about seeing him become the Sole Survivor.

Jane: I am wondering if Jane, the flipper, is being shown in a way to prepare us to see her flip on Sash and Brenda. She couldn’t be happy that, after feeding him, Sash decided to sit out and then seeing her tribe lose a challenge. After all, that was the only thing that mattered to her. Then, Sash not telling her about his deal with her nemesis could be the impetus for her to move once more. He certainly couldn’t have made her feel important when he didn’t tell her something as important as getting the idol from Marty. Seeing her eating a fish alone told us that Jane was loyal to herself first, yellow second. What I do know is how Jane will vote in the end: “People that don’t fish with me shouldn’t get all the riches”!! Who will be shown fishing with Jane?

Fabio: Just when the audience could have started to realize that Fabio wasn’t that dumb, we got more evidence that he was a Dumb Blonde. I’d ask what scene stuck in your mind as a viewer: The one where Fabio initiated plan voodoo on Marty’s idol or the “pee in the pool” one but I feel the answer is pretty obvious. Even his smart answers at TC must have been forgotten by viewers laughing at Jeff’s zinger about knowing Freud.

Chase: He had a nice interview during the reward but hearing him talk about his dead dad is consistent with his edit of being on a Journey to Maturity. His strategy talks, tying him to Na’Onka aren’t very good for his prospects because the “villain” has to be on the losing side. Chase saying that Alina had to be next right after hearing him say that Dan was a source of concern was, at least, a contradiction or, at worse, another example of his difficulties in making decisions

Sash: Dealing with Jud the wildcard, keeping Jane happy by asking her how she would vote and getting the idol from Marty showed that Sash was a very shrewd player. However, his interview about letting others feed him, his decision to sit out the challenge and his slip at TC showed me that his social game will be his undoing. Either the tribe will stop trusting Sash or the jury won’t give him the votes he needs. A self-proclaimed parasite is probably not how the editors want to present a winner.

Marty: When Marty said he was powerless, he was validating my title from last week. Like Jill, he wasn’t really able to scramble from behind the 8 ball but his idol bought him another cycle. I wonder if he even considered that giving the idol to Jeff would mean no one could use it against him like Sash can now do. The early merge can save him so it will be interesting to see if his alliance with Dan can help him more than the one with Jill. Merge at 12, the LaFlor core alliance has 5…Marty needs Jane but his attacks, both at camp and at TC, won’t help.

Brenda: The camera loves Brenda but is it for her looks or for her game? That is the problem in analyzing her story. We do see that she is a good player; the editors give her part of the credit for Sash’s move by putting one of her interviews in the middle of the action and by showing her reactions at TC. Did Brenda make a mistake by trusting Jane? It would be ironic if her mistake happened during the same TC where Marty admitted making one. My main problem with Brenda’s chances is that I don’t see the winner coming from the lazy tribe, especially one in which “Brenda and Sash are in complete control”.

Holly: The feisty mom has every thing going for her to be the winner except for talks about game. She was with the kids because she can go further with them but her reward confessional showed it was mostly because she liked the family feel they brought to camp. That is more Journey player than winner but she still has time to learn the end game. Her next coach could be Jane and I will be very interested in seeing the dynamics when the two moms reunite. They could be a force in the game.

Alina: We didn’t hear much from Alina but most of the Espada scenes were about Alina. We heard she was smart and strong, yet she could also be grimy and sneaky enough to use emotions to influence others. We also have a cross-tribal alliance of Nay, Chase and Holly targeting her in an episode where they didn’t go to TC. Holly? How can Alina survive if the one that considers her part of her family, the one that thinks she looks like her daughter, is against her? Showing that scene with Holly, Nay and Chase is definitely a way to put doubt on her chances. By being a big part in winning the immunity challenge, we can say that Alina saved herself from behind the 8 ball but, in the long run, we already know how Alina will survive her perils: She would use emotions not only to keep herself in the game but to win the game.