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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"20-20 Hindsight"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-10, 06:06 PM (EST)
 
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"20-20 Hindsight" |
Warning: Spoiler Alert! Do not read this thread if you don’t want to know the outcome of events before they air on the show.This season will provide the spoiling community a unique opportunity to analyze the show with the benefit of perfect hindsight: a complete boot list, as well as many other details, available long before the first episode even airs… My hope for this thread is that it becomes a hybrid of Brownroach’s Outside Spoiler thread and Verucasalt’s Editing thread; a place to sharpen our spoiling skills by studying the editing and making observations to identify the tools and tricks used to mislead, foreshadow, hide or enhance the eventual outcome…which this season is already known by the spoiling community. We can also check validity of the old reliable spoiling tools, such as the “OFG Theory”, “Strategies Revealed do not Succeed”, etc. We can revisit the Confessional Analysis, look for Hidden Alliances, and identify editing patterns that may help us to spoil the outcome in future editions of Survivor. This season we are in the unique position of watching the story unfold, knowing we have the answers in the back of the book.
Krautboy
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-10, 07:45 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
*blink*Hi KB! Long time no see, and I hope all is well with you. I think one of the more interesting aspects of spoiling this season will be to see whether there's any unintentional reveals of in-game alliances or conflicts through the "past Survivor that you respect the most" and "...respect the least." For one thing, I think we got a major clue of the dynamics on the Villains tribe from Danielle's reveal that she respects Parvati the most and dislikes/respects Russhell the least. She was never on a show with either one before and S20 was filmed before S19 aired on TV, so how would Danielle know about Russhell? Obviously the comments were made after the show was filmed, so if she gave some info away, it stands to reason that other contestants might also have unintentionally revealed who they got along with (or didn't) in the game. Link to Danielle's bio
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-10, 02:01 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
Hey KB!! Nice to see you. I was just coming over here to see VS's thread to see what we can learn about editing with the full boot list and here you are!!and Pepe, I agree, as soon as I saw Russhell do his "final 2 speech" to Danielle, I said, ok, he uses her until f7 when she goes...and she must vote for Parvati to win. What we didn't see is whether Parvati and Danielle compared notes. Parvati was shown as being wise to Russhell but not rocking the boat. We didn't see that insight with Danielle.
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redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-10, 01:32 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
Wow this is really a special season. The 20th season of Survivor and the return of our favorite all star spoiler Krautboy. Welcome back buddy we really missed you through all the many seasons.
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ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-10, 04:11 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
Okay, I am going to try to respond on topic. In hindsight, Sugar was the first boot because she had no ready made alliance upon arrival, since there was no one there that she had played with before. Booting Sugar also helps explain why the heroes have their heads handed to them. Sugar does not play for herself; she plays to have a "good" person win the $$. Someone should have scooped her up into an alliance. Even if your criteria is to keep the team strong, a legitimate concern that Steph mentioned, Cirie has nothing on Sugar in challenges and Cirie plays for no one but Cirie.
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-10, 08:13 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
All is right with the world! Krautboy is back! It's so nice to see you here again KB! You have been missed! Welcome back!Great thread! I'll jump right in. Here are my initial thoughts. 11 Survivors were highlighted with confessionals in the initial opening scene. Back in the day, we could count one of these as our winner who would usually utter what we labeled as "the winning quote." This season, the order of the initial confessionals alternated between Hero and Villain in this way: Rupert (Hero)
RussHell (Villain)
J.T. (Hero)
Jeri (Villain)
James (Hero)
Coach (Villain)
Tom (Hero)
Rob (Villain)
Colby (Hero)
Sandra (Villain)
Cirie (Hero) In Rupert's world, good always prevails. Will a Hero win? He is followed by RussHell, who contradicts him. Some survivors talk about their past experiences (Tom and Jerri), while others mention strategy: Robfadda: "If they were smart they'd get rid of me right away. But their not. They won't." Sandra: "I'm playing the same game, only better. I have no problem lying and voting you out." Cirie: "I'm a gangsta in Oprah clothing." Colby seems to be playing 10 years later just to see if he can still do it. I didn't hear the winning confessional in any of the opening series of confessionals. Another confessional that I took note of was: RussHell: "I'm still the king unless I'm dethroned." Can anyone dethrone RussHell? Here are the alliances that I see forming: Sandra + Rob
Coach + Jerri (love is in the air)
RussHell + Parvati
RussHell + Danielle Colby + Candice
Candice + Cirie + Amanda
JT + Tom (Winner's alliance)
Tom + Stephanie (Palau alliance)
James + JT (Good 'ole Boy alliance)
James + Amanda (China alliance) It also looks like RussHell's strategy hasn't changed -- the dumb girl alliance. Over at the Heroes Camp, Colby got his way and Sugar was voted out. Tom and Stephanie had wanted to vote out Cirie, who they deemed as "the most strategic person in the game." Another important quote that bodes well for Cirie ... Amanda: "Cirie and I are out for blood. We are here to win this thing." Can they win? I don't know - time will tell. After this first show, Cirie seems to be sitting pretty, I think. As far as confessionals go, RussHell had the most - I counted 15 for him with Coach coming in second with 7. Tyson had the least - 1. Will he be this season's invisible player? I think he's kind of overshadowed (out of his league) with Coach, RussHell and Rob. All in all, I thought it was a great season opener! My personal Hero, Boston Rob showed the others once again, what he's made of! Oh, how I wish Ozzy was in this -- I'd love to see him go up against Rob! With such big egos, this season promises to be very entertaining! 
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-10, 09:25 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
He also said that he was going to play the same game this time around (thinking it was successful). It didn't work last time; it won't work this time. He's being shown to be as arrogant and over-confident as he was in Survivor Samoa. Not a good sign!
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Rebel Crown 1413 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-10, 05:18 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
Along with the winning quote, I would like to add a "winning scene" to be considered:Boston Rob losing the bet to Sandra. It was shown early on, included in the general "camp life" part. But it seemed to focus on Sandra alone and how she plans to play this game. It struck me as different than the other scenes. And no one has brought it up yet, so I wanted to point it out. I've heard rumors she is in the F3, so this could be something.
Welcome back, Krautboy! Great to see you again. I'm just a lurker, but I remember you from back in the day.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-10, 00:31 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
The Heroes got into camp and team-building right off the bat, but individual scheming and game positioning is creating rifts. The Villains were content to ignore camp and team concepts and just jump into game mode. But Rob, of all people, pressed the team-building and succeeded in leading a group effort to get a fire started.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-10, 00:38 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: "Who's On First" of Episode 1" |
<sigh> And this is exactly why Survivor BLOWS.From zap2it Interview with Sugar:
On Russell and what anybody knew before the season started:
Certain people might have inside people who might know more about what's really going on and they're best friends with people... It's life, it's "Survivor," it's Hollywood. People did know certain things (coughsParvaticoughs). That's exactly who I was thinking of. She made some comments in an interview during the show that seemed like she knew more about Russell. Yeah. Well, all they told us, the common players, was that Russell was on the last season, he obviously did something important or big enough for them to bring him back and when he was placed on the Villains team we knew he was a villain and probably went really far in the game. But some other people maybe knew some things... http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2010/02/survivor-hero-jessica-sugar-kiper-on-the-colby-flirtation-inside-russell-info.html I'll give them the shenanigans with the RC editing to build the tension but this is kinda too much. Sometimes I hate this show. Where dat Stacey Stillman at?
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-10, 03:59 AM (EST)
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23. "EP1 Editing Clues" |
Thanks for the warm welcome!
Now let’s get back on topic…
“Strategies revealed do not succeed”
Since the survivors in S20 are all known to us, the editors didn’t need to spend a lot of time developing the characters in EP1. Instead, they were able to focus on alliances being formed or considered. As Scarlet pointed out, during EP1 there were many alliances formed or rekindled from the past. As a general rule, those revealed to us will not succeed, and this season we can check them immediately. Only the alliance between Pavarti and Russell will last to the end of the game, but as we’ve been told, even they come up short. The hidden alliance is the one made with Sandra, which at this point is still unclear. She told us that she is most like Boston Rob, but also that she would consider aligning with him “until it’s time to cut his throat”, which if it happens will occur before the merge. The alliance she uses to get to the end, may be with Russell, Pavarti, or Jerri, but regardless, it will probably remain hidden for a while.
“The Boot Decoy”
In EP1 Sugar was the primary boot target, but standard editing practice is for the audience to be presented with other viable choices; the decoys used to create doubt about he outcome at tribal council. This week Stephanie and Tom were shown to be targets, as Cirie, Candice and Amanda discussed who to vote at TC. Amanda saying, “Stephanie has game and has got to go…” The editors had to work hard to give the audience and alternative to consider besides Sugar. In doing so, they gave away that Stephanie is the next target if the Heros go back to TC. The point is that a “Boot decoy” one week, often becomes a primary boot target the next week.
“Misdirection”
Misdirection is a basic editing tool used to add surprise and drama to the storyline. This week we saw the Heros edited being off to a great start, winning reward, catching chickens, getting along, and Amanda commenting on the “Good Karma” she felt from her tribe…a sure bet that their luck will change and that they were counting their chickens a bit too soon. And as we know, four of the first five boots come from the Hero’s tribe. Misdirection is also used to edit a contestant as being vulnerable and in trouble. This week Rupert broke his toe, couldn’t catch fish or start the fire, even with flint and steel. He was edited as injured and useless, worried about his status on the tribe. As we know, Rupert goes on to do fairly well, confirming the misdirection used in his portrayal in EP1.
“Injuries”
Injuries are good for the show and add to the “reality”. They make the story seem more real and add the illusion of the show being live or filmed in real time. Injuries are rarely edited out and can result in an unexpected departure, sympathy boot, or misdirection of someone who goes deep into the game. With Rupert his injury was used as misdirection. Next week’s preview shows Rob passed out, probably edited to take the target off of Stephaine and make Rob appear vulnerable. Stephanie’s injury on the other hand, was quickly brushed away, perhaps to keep the audience from considering her vulnerable this early in the game.
“Foreshadowing the irony”
EP1 saw lots of confessionals of the former all stars talking about people not making the same mistakes again this time. Rob is shown talking about how if the others were smart they would vote him off early…”but they won’t”. Ironically they do vote him off before the merge. Tom is shown talking about how important it is to vote off the strong strategic players like Cirie, because he didn’t want to make the same mistake his tribemates made when he won. Ironically they don’t make that mistake and this time they do get rid of him early. Sandra is shown saying something like…I may lie, “but I’ll make up a good lie.” Apparently foreshadowing an important turning point in the game.
KB
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-10, 02:20 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: EP1 Editing Clues" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-10 AT 02:21 AM (EST)>KB - good analysis. I
>should point out, though, that
>while it's generally true that
>alliances revealed do not succeed,
>it's worth remembering that we
>saw Russell and Natalie make
>an alliance on day one
>of Samoa and stick together
>throughout the show. Yes, you are correct about the alliance succeeding, but not Russell's strategy . His strategy was to take Natalie to the end thinking it would insure his victory...his stragegy was revealed early on, but it did not succeed; in the end the allaince helped only Natalie, and now Russell will unknowingly make the same mistake again.
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-10, 11:09 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: EP1 Editing Clues" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-15-10 AT 11:34 AM (EST)What a thrill it was to peruse the boards and see Krautboy's name on a thread once again. I, too, thought I had dragged up the wrong season, or something! Welcome back, my friend! So happy to see you again and thrilled to have your wise and most logical input on all topics survivor! Sorry to be late to the party, but I was indisposed for a bit...this season's spoiling thread received a huge dose of rejuvenation with you! Thrilled to have you back. I had to watch the show this AM from my computer for the first time, so lots of my assessments have already been noted. I sure do hope Corvis comes to add his two cents with his confessional analysis, because this is the season to test it as well. My first impression is that it was all about Russell and his perspectives...overwhelmingly to me. Foreshadowing about the force that he will be in this season as well. Interesting how Courtney's observation of "battle of the Titans" for dominance, and who's going to go up against Boston Rob for the title? Then it cuts to Russell. This is foreshadowing of a contest between the two, and as we hear so much from Russell, and from Boston Rob it's just how different he is now that he's married and a father...foretelling about the outcome of the two, imo. I loved JT's confessional, very meaty, on how he's not going to be playing the tried and true hero game this go round, he's calling on his dark side and he'll do what he has to do to win, it's a different ball game. That was the meatiest confessional from the hero's for me. I did feel like the first 11 confessionals were very telling....Rupert, Russell, JT, Jerry, James, Coach, Tom, Rob, Colby, Sandra, and Cirie... Regarding the alliances that were made and we were shown, and trying to consider the possible alliances that were NOT shown. We saw Tom go to JT to make an alliance with him, as he knows that in order for him to win, he'll stand a much better shot with another winner....so regarding the winners on the other tribe...Sandra and Parvati, clearly they must align for the same reasons. To me, exposing the alliance of JT and Tom, lead me to believe that the same would hold for Sandra and Parvati, but this was omitted. Regarding the boot decoys. The editing was all over them. Tom, Cirie, Amanda, Stephanie, Rupert, and Sugar all received zoom-ins when Jiffy says, "I'll go tally the votes". And, I agree, of all the decoys, Stephanie will most likely be the next boot to go for the heroes. As you have noted while she was injured, it was glazed over, not like Rupert, the misdirection. Regarding the boot, the editing did present Sugar on a silver platter, imo. While considering misdirection for the next episode...clearly Boston Rob and his fainting spell, and the title of the episode..."It's getting the best of me". ETA: OFG Theory... the only OFG targets I see so far are these: 
Stephanie and Cirie and, I guess I'll throw in this one...but I think it's more the misdirection. 
one nation, under
Romber...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-10, 02:00 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: 20-20 Hindsight" |
Hi OFG! Looking forward to some good discussion. However, the focus will probably be more about spoiling theory, since so much is known about the general sequence of events.And in response to your question, I tried to follow the proper protocal of warning those who read this thread, that it will include discussion of the information presented in Brownroaches "outside spoilers" thread, including the boot order. It does appear that many readers have tried to avoid the boot list, but the discussion here will include references to it as needed.
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-17-10, 02:29 AM (EST)
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35. "Narrators" |
The editors often select one or two "narrators" from each tribe, who for the sake of continuity, are used to tell the story unfolding at each tribe. This happens in the "confessionals".The editors usually select narrators from those contestants who will be around at least to the merge, at which point a new tribe is formed and a new narrator can be used. Identifying the narrators is a good tool to use to determine who might make the merge. After EP1 the players with the most confessionals were Coach and Russell on the villians, and Rupert and Colby on the Heros...and as we know all four of them make the merge, so there is a good chance our narrators come from this group. We can check this theorem after EP2.
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-10, 09:44 AM (EST)
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36. "Post Episode 2, Hindsight" |
Well, clearly the OFG Theory and pinpointing the Ep 1 boot decoys led us to our next boot, Stephanie. It's not so obvious for Episode 2.One tool that we have now to help spoil the show is Jiffy's Blog. In the first week Jiffy told us: Boston Rob and Sandra led the villains to victory by leading them through the puzzle. Period. They’re both scrappy players and scrappy will be the key to winning this season. That doesn’t mean a Hero can’t win, it merely means that in my opinion, by the time this season is over, the idea of what makes up a Hero or Villain will fluctuate quite a bit. ”Outwit, outplay… outlast.”
Okay, without thinking it through – just off the top of my head — here are some overall thoughts about some of the returning Survivors: Sandra Diaz – I am so glad she is back. I love her lippy way of telling it like it is. Courtney is also surprising me early on. I like how hard she fought in the initial challenge. Cirie is a legit, 100% full-on threat to win this game. Parvati, if given any kind... The first week he told us point blank that to win this season you need to be scrappy and that Sandra and Rob were both scrappy players. Then he goes on to comment on some of them and he leads with Sandra... The second week of his blog, Jiffy almost rants about the road the Heroes have chosen to go down with these: The heroes are clearly starting to fall apart. I still do not understand the rationale of players who come into this game, some of them for the third time, and continue to make selfish decisions, based solely on alliances, in only the SECOND WEEK OF THE GAME! And while we’re on the topic, “strong” doesn’t just mean in challenges. Strong means work ethic, attitude, ability to provide food or build shelter, as well as leadership abilities and a whole host of other qualities. I’m going to say something that will probably be very unpopular but if I were on the Heroes tribe I would have to seriously consider getting rid of James. I know he’s the strongest guy to ever play this game, but his attitude is just not there and that is more damaging long term than his biceps are helpful short term. NOTE # 2 TO ALL FUTURE PLAYERS: If you are at tribal and something is going south – have the guts to change your mind and call an audible. Make a stand. To get a shot at the million dollars you have to make it to the end and to get to the end you have to avoid tribal council and to avoid tribal council you have to win. He is going on and on about how the hero's have blown it....choosing individual alliances over the health of the tribe is going to spell disaster for the Hero's tribe...he tells us basically where and when it goes wrong for the Hero's....right here in episode 2. Jiffy's blog spells out the winning tribe early, and he gives alot of hints regarding the winner. We just have to find them. Regarding Episode 2 and the boot and the decoys. This week Stephenie and Amanda were the two boot choices spelled out in the end. But, I would say that boot decoys discussed included Stephanie, Amanda, Cirie, and Candice. I think James became a big boot decoy as well by the end of the episode. One of these: Amanda, Cirie, Candice, or James will most likely become the boot the next time the Hero's go to TC. Regarding the OFG Theory for this week: This week there are alot of shots of the mud challenge, which is most likely the IC. There is alot of featuring of James, who is going off the deep end with his wanting to win rants, and his bullying....with lesser shots of Colby and Tom. Misdirection: the Hero's tribe and the conflicts that are going on especially with James. The only vidcaps I see regarding our boot for this week are a random shot of the Villains tribe: 
and this one.... 
I'd say that to the common viewer, this boot is a totally hidden boot. Which, we do see in every season at one point or another. Regarding our Narrators: Rob received by far the most confessionals, and seems to be getting a "hero" status in the villain tribe per Veruca in her editing thread. He received 10 confessionals. Stephanie, our boot got the second most confessionals with 7. JT on the hero's tribe recieved 6. RussHell 4, and Tom 3. With such big personalities as Robfadda, Coach, and RussHell, it's really hard to distinguish who will emerge as the true narrator. But, Jerri is looking consistant for the girls. JT seems to be emerging as someone with a consistant confessional count at the Heroes and could be our narrator.
I don't think it's completely clear as of this point who our narrators are. I really wish Corvis would come and do his confessional analysis. I will try to do it, but I always have trouble differentiating what kind of confessionals they are. So, here are the total counts for confessionals for comparison from week one to week two:
Week 1 , Week 2 Russell: 15 , 4
Coach: 12 , 2
Rob: 7 , 10
Sandra: 4 , 0
Parvati: 3 , 0
Jerri: 3 , 2
Danielle: 2 , 0
Courtney: 2 , 2
Randy: 1 , 2
Tyson: 1 , 0
Colby: 10 , 0
Rupert: 9 , 1
Tom: 7 , 3
JT: 6 , 6
Amanda: 6 , 0
James: 4 , 2
Cirie: 4 , 0
Candice: 2 , 1
Stephanie 2 , 7
Sugar: 2
Now I will try and analyze it, poorly, I'm sure. Those that received a spike in confessionals from last week(re: anyone that had more than they had last week:
Villains: Robfadda and Randy Hero's: Stephanie had her spike on the episode of her exit...no one else had a spike at all. Thus looking at the confessional spikes could we surmise that the boot will indeed come from the Villains tribe and it will either be Rob(misdirection), or Randy? For a completely hidden boot, one would expect to see a big dip to no confessionals in the episode prior to their boot. If this is the case than these are our boot candidates: Villains: Sandra, Parvati, Danielle, and Tyson all fell under the radar. We know it will not be any of them. Heroes: Colby, Rupert, Amanda, Cirie, Candice. Now this group seems to include alot of the boot decoys from Episode 2....could be our next boot from the Hero's will be from this group, more specifically Amanda, Cirie, or Candice 
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-23-10, 07:40 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Post Episode 2, Hindsight" |
FP: Thanks for keeping the analysis going! Episode 2 was edited without a lot of clues about the EP3 boot...perhaps a non event, just not as dramatic as Rob's illness or the conflict surrounding Stephenie and James.
The Hidden Boot
Episode 2 was dominated by Rob’s illness and Stephenie’s demise. The editors apparently decided setting up for Randy’s boot was not as interesting a storyline, so he will become the “hidden boot” for the general audience. A hidden boot is often used during the early episodes, if the character departing is less interesting than the other competing storylines. Ironic Foreshadowing The only real editing clues we have for Randy’s are comments used to foreshadow his boot in EP3… Randy: “The only thing “paradise” about this hell hole is leaving it.” Parvati: “Why can’t we have James and Colby, Tom and Rupert”
Courtney: “How did they get every awesome guy and we get Randy!” Foreshadowing was used within the episode as well, leading up to Rob’s passing out…
Courtney: “Boston Rob is like the bright shining star and he gets so frustrated with these fools. I hope he doesn’t drop dead in the next few days because we’ll all die. There’s no way around it.”
We also got a clue foreshadowing Cirie’s upcoming boot…
Cirie: “Honestly, as long as it’s not us, it really doesn’t matter to me.”
Confessional Analysis
As FP points out, the narrators were not needed this week, because the focus on Rob and Stephenie required their own perspective to tell the story. I expect we may see Russell or Coach step back into that role for the Villains, and Rupert and Colby for the Heros Misdirection: The misdirection this week was general in nature, but a good indication that the heros will eventually come out on top. Sandra pointed out the tribe kept taking 4 steps backwards.
With everyone bickering, the scene ended with Jerri whispering next to the camera: “Good God. This is not good.” The villains were edited to be disorganized and in trouble…misdirection to hide the Villian’s pre-merge dominance.
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-10, 06:35 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Post Episode 2, Hindsight" |
Ahhh KB, you sure know how to lay it all out there. Yes, there was indeed alot of foreshadowing of Randy in this past episode...and his confessionals were all about negativity and complaining that they had to make their shelter again for the fourth time....Thanks!
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_
files/3fdfc4eb21b32fad.gif
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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