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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-08-09, 08:15 PM (EST) "SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Welcome to the SOTS where we try to one-up EPMB and accurately predict the results of Survivor before it airs... sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will eternally try! Please, if you are not familiar with the Blows site already, then feel free to peruse our guidelines here. Last week, incredibly, we had yet another blindside! John took the walk of shame. He certainly seems quite the cocky character back at loser lodge, yet, he presumably will vote for the "deserving player" over the coat tail riders…we'll see about that later. The next episode, #12, is titled Damage Control. Damage Control Two people were blindsided last week. One, John, is no longer with us, he's enjoying himself at loser lodge with his best friend, Laura. Second, Shambo, is still reeling from being kept out of the loop once again. So, we figure that "damage control" must be referring to how to get Shambo to drink the remaining kool-aid…most likely this is something that our star, Russell, mumbles to himself in confessional, and something that he will handle himself. So, this brings us to our first fork in the road. It will either work, or it will not. If damage control is unsuccessful than Shambo is likely to go rogue, and will inevitably end up the target and therefore the boot. OR, damage control will be successful and she will get back in line and do what she's told to do. Well, we all know that what RussHell wants, RussHell gets. So, more likely than not, Shambo will be a good little girl, follow orders, and proceed to vote for who she is told to. Who knows, perhaps RussHell will let Shambo hand pick the next boot to go…I'm sure that would pacify her somewhat, no? Misdirection Clues Survivor Phoenix also posts some misdirection clues: 1. The castaways are shocked to discover a twist that will ultimately send two of them home, on Survivor Samoa. Well, CBS is also kind to us in that they hit us over the head with this in the promos: and, even Jiffy tells us... ...that 2 people will indeed be going home... 2. Fearing that he is next on the chopping block, one castaway gives a shocking performance at TC. Folks seem to think that this will be Dave, as he is seen in the secret scene at the end of Jiffy's blog, here. He tells us that he is saving up all the instances where RussHell proves he is a despicable liar and backstabber to relay to "the others" at the appropriate time. Sure sounds plausible. But, the weekend promo tells us this... Russell <camera confessional> :  I have a lot of options in the game right now.  Announcer:  Two people going home... Mick <camera confessional> :  Part of me wants to make a big move getting rid of Russell. Announcer:  With two chances at Immunity... Dave:  Anything to keep you here another day, it sounds pretty good. Announcer:  With only 3 episodes to go... Jaison:  Russell is Russell, so we better watch out. Natalie:  Oh my word.  Announcer:  Master manipulator Russell pulls the boldest move ever at a Tribal Council. Russell <camera confessional> :  I'll do whatever it takes. Announcer:  Will it be his last? Jeff Probst <at Tribal Council> :  I'll go tally the votes. This transcript implies that it will be RUSSELL that indeed makes the boldest move ever. Well, after much consideration and debate here, I think that "fearing that he is on the chopping block", is the dead giveaway. If the choices are between Dave and Russell, I think this clue must be referring to Dave Ball, as Russell certainly is not afraid of being next on the chopping block...not as a member of the dominant alliance and having the ole HII in his back pocket. VIDCAPS Well, the preview vidcaps have Mick and Jaison questioning Russell's loyalty to them... ...and then Mick proceeds to talk to Monica and Brett about the snake story, and how it will bite you in the end, because it's a snake, that's what it does. Russell, the snake For me, this promo is ALL about our misdirection for the episode. Yes, Jaison and Mick will finally talk about questioning RussHell, but it will most likely not amount to a hill of beans. This promo does however give us one of our boot candidates a la the OFG theory....Monica. Note there is no siting really of Brett, Dave, Shambo, or Natalie. The next promo tells us about the two immunity challenges, the two tribal councils, and the two people going home. Seems like the first IC is one where they have to jump on a see-saw type device and cast off the bean bag into an elevated box. rachelOH63 noted in the vidcap thread that Mick is indeed in the yellow, Monica is in the white tower, and Brett is in the green tower. As to the winner, I suspect that it could indeed be... Mick ...or it could be Brett? We don't see him ANYWHERE in the entire promo, so odds are that he's safe. He could win this IC as well. As for the next IC...it's bowling... As for who wins...I think it really could be anybody's game! In the rest of the promo we see our likely suspects... Monica: Dave: and here is one of Shambo: Note we see both Monica and Dave pleading and plotting with RussHell, most likely for their Survivor life. Note that we see ONE random shot of Shambo at TC, which I might add is an old one, as we see she is sitting next to John. In all of the preview and promo vidcaps this is the ONLY shot of Shambo...imo, she is safe. RESULTS REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER: NO ONE, most likely there will be no time for a RC. IMMUNITY CHALLENGE WINNERS: Most likely Brett wins at least one, Mick could be a winner, and really anyone but Dave or Monica. BOOTS: First to be voted off at the first TC: Dave Ball Second Boot at the second TC: Monica Please stop by and vote in Dabo's Vote Thread. Don't forget to check out the must read Veruca Salt's The Players, The Game, The Editing Thread. Check out: Snidget'sRTVW (and other) Interview's Thread. OFG's Promo scenes not in the episode Thread. Brownroach's two threads: 1. Missyea Spoiler Thread and 2. Episode 13 Title Thread, "Two heads are better than one" SquidProQuo's Jiffy's Blog Thread CTGirl has started a thread to predict jury votes, Survivor Samoa: A Bitter Jury   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... michel 12-08-09 1  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Outfrontgirl 12-09-09 2    RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Flowerpower 12-09-09 3        RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Brownroach 12-09-09 8        RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Outfrontgirl 12-09-09 13            RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Brownroach 12-09-09 16                RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Flowerpower 12-09-09 17  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... PhillyBrat 12-09-09 4  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... CTgirl 12-09-09 5  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... emydi 12-09-09 6  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Max Headroom 12-09-09 7    RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... JC222 12-09-09 9        RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Outfrontgirl 12-09-09 11        RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... Brownroach 12-09-09 12  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... goldenmike4393 12-09-09 10  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... kingfish 12-09-09 14  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... samboohoo 12-09-09 15  Thanks for an excellent SOTS! kircon 12-10-09 18  RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Contr... redbeard103152 12-10-09 19

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-08-09, 08:28 PM (EST) 1. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Great job, Flowerpower! I think you've covered everything except Russell's big move. If he needs to pull off a bold move, I feel that means he doesn't get Shambo under control. His bold move gets Dave voted out because we need to hear Dave's TC performance but then, in the second IC, Russell could go after Shambo for forcing his hand.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 03:31 AM (EST) 2. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" A FlowerPower SOTS always delivers the goods. I agree with all the assessments, and particularly the observations you made about misdirection. The majority of viewers who don't spoil are going to be obsessed with whether Russell leaves each week, whereas at this board we know he's not going anywhere. CBS is working the question for ratings. I wish we knew on which vote we will see Mick and Jaison considering a move. In the scene with Mick's snake story, Dave isn't there in the scene, is he? It's possible that the move is considered at F7. Why would two Foa Foa give up a numerical advantage to align with three Galu (Dave/Brett/Monica)? As Dave points out in his secret scene, a 2-2 F4 deal might have some appeal. (OK, not if they're thinking jury votes, but as a way to get there and not get dumped by Russell.) At F8, 5 votes needed to avoid a tie. Russell needs Shambo, or Dave, if all the Foa Foa stick together. Shambo can probably be assuaged with an agreement to vote Dave. People keep talking about the danger of Shambo flipping and voting with Galu. But that is no greater danger than leaving 3 Galu in the game who most definitely are tight. 2 + Shambo or 3 Galu, which is more of a threat? I think the 3 Galu. I'm thinking here of whom Russell would want to target, or Mick and Jaison. Shambo is a wild card but not the most dangerous person to leave in the game IMHO. At F7 they need four votes; Mick and Jaison could make a good move against Russell there if they aligned with Monica and Brett, but they would have to keep it down low or he'd play the idol. I'm curious to see if they try it; it sounds like Russell does feel pushed to make a move of some sort. I think Brett is throwing the immunities (see Insider clip). He is not ready to go all out as it will just move him to the top of the boot list, and he can't win them all. Perhaps at F7 he might feel vulnerable, as I think it will be down to him and Monica. But then, bowling is one that you kind of need to have experience to be good at it. We don't know which of these players has it ... I bet the producers do though.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 07:36 AM (EST) 3. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Thanks, as always, for your feedback michel and OFG! I know I can always count on you two for extra insight and new perspectives. I agree, I did end up blowing off Russell's big move. I think when I was writing this, I was going more with that being misdirection.....what bolder move could Russell make than playing the HII and using it to effectively blindside someone? Also, I discounted Russell being afraid of being voted out, so I gave that clue to Dave. For arguments sake though, I do think we should consider that clue pertaining to Russell. I think the first IC will go smoothly. I think Russell will bring Shambo back into the fold and even let her choose the boot....Dave will be toast. But, as OFG speculates, and I tend to agree, I think Mick and Jaison will really weigh their options for F7. If Russhell really makes a bold move, than he must feel very threatened, so Natalie must have tipped him off....either she or Shambo. Perhaps Brett is in on it, and he seemed to be the one that told the 90210 things that were being plotted against them. We see Brett lying in the shelter discussing the snake that Russell is with Mick and Monica. Perhaps Brett will confide their plans to Natalie and she will clue Russhell in. Regardless, if Russhell is to feel threatened, he is indeed likely to do something bold. But, what could be considered bold at this point?   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 12:00 PM (EST) 8. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" LAST EDITED ON 12-09-09 AT 12:15 PM (EST) Regardless, if Russhell is to feel threatened, he is indeed likely to do something bold. But, what could be considered bold at this point? Suppose Russell whips out the hidden II before they all vote and announces that oh yes, make no mistake, he plans to play it after the vote, so vote for Russell at your own peril. Then, to complete the bold move -- HE DOESN'T PLAY IT. And, lo and behold, he has gotten no votes. It could be something like that, the "shocking performance by someone who fears he's on the chopping block." And the promo calls Russell the "master manipulator." I do think all the Russell stuff comes after the first boot, and the big move is designed to work as a deterrent to Mick and Jaison, who Russell believes are gunning for him. What else would he need to make a big move for? p.s. -- great SOTS, FloPo! ETA: Imo, Russell is the "chopping block" person because the suggestion, to me, is that the next-on-the-chopping-block status comes as something of a surprise to the person. Whereas Dave knew he was in trouble last week. Although...you never know about the wording of these things. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 02:06 PM (EST) 13. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" LAST EDITED ON 12-09-09 AT 02:08 PM (EST) FloPo, I love this SOTS and didn't feel it was any deficiency not to go into the big move. We really have no guidance as to what, if anything, it might be. But I like hearing your further thinking on the matter. Remember when Kathy O'Brian told the sheep in All Stars that F7 was their last chance to make a move against Rob? I think students of the game do keep that F7 moment in mind. No chance of a tie, and a moment when the bottom of the alliance can switch up the game against the leader. IF there is no HII in the picture ... but there is. I too had been unable to think of a bolder move than he's already made, but I think Brownroach's idea is pretty great. That would be a jaw-dropper. If Russell and Mick are going to make a move, then they know they need to blindside Russell or he'll play the idol. Therefore if Russell comes out and announces there will be no blindside because he's on to them and ready to play the idol, that will be that. Jaison and Mick's only move is not to vote for Russell so they can tell him he was just being paranoid. If they go forward and vote for him, he's their new enemy. Monica is an easy fallback target. If they tell Natalie they are considering going after Russ, then she and Russell have done an awesome job at keeping the "secret alliance" secret. And maybe they have. Interesting thought about Brett as double agent. He has functioned that way, and I'm sure he is capable of it. I'm just not sure there's any advantage to him in blowing cover on a move against Russell. Seems to me he is best off if the move succeeds. Which it won't.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 03:56 PM (EST) 16. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" I think I've sold myself on this idea, especially rereading this: Announcer: Master manipulator Russell pulls the boldest move ever at a Tribal Council. Russell <camera confessional> : I'll do whatever it takes. Announcer: Will it be his last? Jeff Probst <at Tribal Council> : I'll go tally the votes. It will be especially cool if Russell gets, say, two votes from Monica and Brett -- which Jeff will of course read first -- and viewers will wonder "uh-oh, should Russell have played the idol after all?" Oh, the suspense! A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 05:03 PM (EST) 17. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" See...I knew if I posed the question, that you would deliver...! I love it, Mr. Roach, just love it, and yes, it would indeed be a bold move. Very clever, and true to form Russhell! Now, let's see him deliver!   Top

PhillyBrat 172 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-09-09, 07:37 AM (EST) 4. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" LAST EDITED ON 12-09-09 AT 07:38 AM (EST) Awesome SOTS FP.. You got my thinking with this info here. (To which I posted in another thread..) And I thank you for taking the time to put it all together. Nice work and great job.   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 09:32 AM (EST) 5. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Great job as always FloPo!! You've laid the episode out nicely! Dash Away by Agman - bobble by Tribe   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 09:56 AM (EST) 6. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Nice SOTS FP!   Top

Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 10:24 AM (EST) 7. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Great job, FloPo! agman's helping me survive   Top

JC222 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-09-09, 12:34 PM (EST) 9. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Phillybrat has a very interesting post today in the Title thread. S/he notes that we haven't really nailed what the shocking "twist" is this week, and speculates that perhaps the 2nd IC is announced and happens right at TC...then they have to vote immediately afterwards, leaving little time for scrambling and strategizing. (If they ran 2 "regular" ICs and TCs and just condensed it afterwards into 1 episode in the editing, it wouldn't really be a shocking twist to the castaways...although could just be CBS hype.) Phillybrat also notes that you can see a blue path line in the bowling IC shots, so perhaps the bowling and tower/bean bag challenges are part of the same multi-phase, color-coded IC....which also lends itself to the theory that the 2nd IC could happen at TC and they wouldn't want us to see that. (Maybe a quiz type challenge?) One reason I like this idea (or a variation) is that it would help explain why they could easily condense 2 ICs and 2 TCs into 1 episode. And keep in mind Jeff's EW blog when nice Russell was voted out...he said something about how they figured out a better way to boot 2 people in 1 episode...this could be it. If this holds true, then it would make total sense that Monica definitely goes in the 2nd vote. (Since no real time for strategizing -- FF would just stick with the boot order plan.) And I do think CBS would rather give Shambo's boot an entire episode. Better to combine 2 boring Pagonings of Dave/Monica into 1 episode. P.S. Awesome SOTS FloPo!!!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 01:31 PM (EST) 11. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Phillybrat's spec about the two challenges being one is intriguing, because the bowling makes for a lame challenge on its own. I floated the idea of their having the second IC at TC back last Friday; that was my first take on the way they might execute the twist after seeing the press release. See post 4 of the title topic: "They could do something like play an immunity challenge at TC and go straight into a vote without strategizing. Or they could do two short cycles with no RC. The latter seems likely enough, but the teaser said it's a twist. I don't see two one day cycles as a twist. Big Brother has done the immediate HOH & veto followed by second eviction numerous times, and Survivor has done the immunity at TC then immediate vote at F3, and once at F4 (Africa)." But nobody ran with the idea. Then I saw the two outdoor challenges and changed my mind. Also they then ran the web promo that said two immunity challenges (shot of towers and then bowling implying these are the two challenges, and TWO Tribal Councils. The IC at TC would really be part of one extended Tribal Council; it would be a big stretch to call it two TC's. That's why I let that idea go. They have time in the calendar to do two one day episodes. If you want to regard "twist" as typical SEEBS over-hype --which it is more often than not -- I spec'd somewhere that it's a bit of a twist to shorten up the cycles. Dave, in his secret scene, things he has time to make some inroads with Foa Foa. Then, boom, there is no time after John goes, no rewards, hardly any down time. That is unexpected ... although if these guys are counting at all they should realize that the number of days left and number of people still in the game calls for something like this to happen - but they are so hungry and spaced out they may not be doing the math.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 01:42 PM (EST) 12. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" he said something about how they figured out a better way to boot 2 people in 1 episode...this could be it. Jeff was talking specifically about the double tribal eliminations, so I don't think the "better way" factors into S19. It sounded to me like he meant for future installments: If we start with 20, as we did this year, it gives us plenty of wiggle room for quits or medical evacuation, but because we have 4 extra people we have to get rid of them at some point. Thus the “win or lose, you’re voting somebody out” scenario. I am happy to say that we have since figured out a better way to do double eliminations. So should we ever need to vote out two people in one episode it will not be a “win or lose both tribes going to tribal council” scenario. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 12-09-09, 12:48 PM (EST) 10. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" You totally ROCK! Thanks for putting it together for us. I needed help due to press of holidays.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 02:19 PM (EST) 14. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Very entertaining, Flo, as well as informative. Now to ponder... "Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered weak and weary, Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore,   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-09, 02:50 PM (EST) 15. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Great Job Flo Po! Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie   Top

kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-10-09, 01:46 PM (EST) 18. "Thanks for an excellent SOTS!" Thank you so much for your hard work Flowerpower. It's nice when a spoiler writes the SOTS and adds their own insight. And on top of it you got a double boot. Thanks! You all have one more chance to try your hand at writing a SOTS. I signed up for next week, but I am willing to let someone else have that joy. What do you say?   Top

redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-10-09, 02:12 PM (EST) 19. "RE: SOTS, Episode 12, "Damage Control"" Flo Po I don't know how you do it but you answer all the questions in one well thought out SOTS. Thanks for all your hard work it is truly appreciated.   Top

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