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"Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity"
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-27-01, 01:43 PM (EST)
 
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"Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
DO NOT TALK ABOUT THE INJURY ON THIS THREAD. Assume that the injury is a red herring and approach this thread as if Kucha loses the IC and must go to TC.
This one is harder than Ogakor b/c of the lack of footage thus ar regarding the "politics" of Kucha.
Wht do we know? 1. Jeff and Alicia are a voting block 2. Lizliz and Rodger are a voting block
Further, do we know that Kucha is smart enough to realize that the time is now to dump yoiur strongest member?
****** So, who's in trouble and who's safe? Rodger is the MOST safe based on the fact that he is a non-threat in post merger physical challenges Jeff appears to be safe b/c he controls two of the votes and seems more in control than his partner, Alicia. Is Lizliz under the radar? We know that Jeff and Alicia fear her cause she would win if they all made it to the finals...but, does that warrant an ejection at this point in the game?? Plus, dump Liz and you run the risk of pissing off Rodger to the point where he might be willing to join up with the Ogakor's post-merger. I think Liz is safe.
That brings us to Nick, Mike, and Alicia.
We've seen Mike denying (to Kimmi) that he is part of Jeff and Alicia's club...although, he could very well have been lying to her.
Nick doesn't appear to be with anyone, yet he DID vote the same as everyone so there is a good chance that he IS involved in a voting block and we just aren't seeing it. Alicia has already pissed off a few people, plus she would add credence to the more man then women rumor. But, she's clearly the weakest of the three...I don't care how buff she is, she's still a woman and therefore weaker than Mike and Nick. And don't waste my time calling me a sexist...it's a scientific fact, and although she is well built, it's not like she's HUGE, she's just in great shape.
So, who's it gonna be? Could we have another tie? IF a tie looks possible, look for Roger and Liz to team up with either Mike or Nick to vote off Jeff sicne he already has 2 votes. But, do they even know the rules?
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Elwood 93 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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02-27-01, 02:00 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
Rodger - safe, as ya point out, no question. Elisabeth won't vote for him, I don't think Mike or Nick would, either, so at most I see him getting 2 votes (a worst case scenario). I don't think he'll go against Mike or Nick (or Lizzie - duh).Lizzie - I think she's safe. No real reason. Michael - Same as Liz (btw, I think the unseen stuff we've not been privy to is that Mike talks with Nick, and is more in tune with Rodger than he is with Jeff/Alicia). Nick - Too little face-time to have lasted this long and then leaving, though if what we've seen is standard stuff, then maybe there just wasn't much to show. I think he's at least a "buddy" of Mike. (but could also be the 3rd of JeffLicia, just not enough info to go on) Jeff - Would look to vote off Mike (I think). We've seen him and Alicia talk of strats (the only ones we've seen of Kucha so far), but remember, Kimmi at least knew of this, as she thought Mike was part of their "pact" (and face it, if Kimmi can she this, then I'd expect Nick, as well, and Mike seemed to indicate it wasn't much of a shock to him, and from that I'd take it that Rog/Liz know, too). The brainier part of JeffLicia. Alicia - The strength part of JeffLicia. I can see a vote by Kucha going 2 ways (with 3 possible targets). 1 - Mike is the lynch-pin of 3 groups (Mike-Rog-Liz, Mike-Nick, and Jeff-Alicia-Mike) and convinces the other "knowing" people that Jeff and Alicia are part of a 2 person alliance, and that one of them should go (my guess is he'd target Alicia, simply because she seems the most annoying of those that are left). But maybe Jeff has bitched as much to the tribe as he has to the camera, and so he'd be targetted. OR, people get clued in that Mike is playing all sides while taking none, and see that as bad, so he gets burned (pun intended) by his lack of commitment to one team. Plus he's the strongest, so a likely target. I think this is a much harder tribe to pin down, since there's not much intrigue there, and the wildcard is Nick. I just have this strange feeling him and Amber both go very far (due to lack of, well, anything interesting...if they were to go soon, we'd at least see more "negative" stuff about them). I'd have to say it's down to Alicia and Mike, and I'm leaning towards Alicia, though my off-the-wall theory has ONLY Lizzie or Jeff being possible bootees if Kucha goes this week.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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02-27-01, 03:17 PM (EST)
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2. "Tie vote, then Alicia" |
Kucha voting blocks:Rodger and Elisabeth: solid block, look like father-daughter in camp. No double-crosses here. Jeff and Alicia: solid block, and MB has chosen to emphasize hem. Michael: appears to side with Rodger and Elisabeth. The video clips made it look like he was the prime reason that R&E chose to vote against Kimmi instead of Alicia. Nick: MB has chosen NOT to show us his alliance. I think that's an important clue that Kucha doesn't lose the IC in E6, because his vote is obviously crucial here. He is too smart to NOT be linked to one of the alliances (yes, I think HLS students tend to be smart) -- so it has to be deliberate on MB's part to not show us the link. Since Jefflicia is the "evil" alliance, I think Nick has to be part of it, and that's why MB has chosen not to show any of his "plotting." I also think he was the one who misled Kimmi, which I have posted elsewhere. But it could just be that Nick is better at being guarded. Anyway, I see the first vote going like this:
For Alicia: Michael, Elisabeth, Rodger
For Elisabeth: Jeff, Alicia, Nick Revote: Nick changes sides, Alicia's gone. Why? Well, because (1) he's not as committed into the Jefflicia alliance as the principals, and (2) if he can get into the final four against M, E & R, he has to figure that he has a decent chance of winning all the ICs, a la Kelly, to make the final two.
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ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-27-01, 03:20 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
No, No, No! You've got it wrong, OGAKOR goes to Tribal Council this week!! *Sigh* Okay, if Kucha goes, I think Rodger will be voted out of the tribe as he is seen as a weak link...which does'nt make much since considering how he won't be any threat at all after merger....so then I see Nick, being one of the physically stronger people, being the absolute positive person booted off if Kucha goes to Tribal Council this week.Final Four: Alicia Calaway, Jeff Varner, Elisabeth Filarski,
Michael Skupin.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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02-27-01, 03:41 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
To me, this one is far more difficult than if Ogakor goes to TC since each of the votes from this tribe have been unanimous and we have no voting history really to come from here, but here is the way that I am looking at it right now. I am trying to think of who I feel is in danger and at the current time it seems that the most confrontational people in this tribe are in fact Jeff, Alicia and Michael. Jeff and Alicia are together and will most likely vote together, and I get the feeling that they may want to get rid of Michael, simply because he is the one getting the food which could make him difficult to get rid of once the tribes merge(I am assuming he would be popular with the Ogakor's if he can continue to provide food). So I believe that they will vote for Michael. They will most likely try to pull Nick their direction, so that at worst they get a tie out of the deal. I believe that Michael is smart enough(I think he may be the smartest at playing the game in Kucha) to realize this possibility and I think he will be able to sell Rodger and Lizliz on voting for whoever he decides that he wants out. Nick is the swing vote here, and I believe that he will side with Michael before he sides with Jeff and Alicia, since I get the feeling that they are further apart from the group than the rest. This would leave Alicia vulnerable in my opinion, though Jeff is just as likely as Alicia at this point. On the other hand, Nick is lazy, and the only real asset that he brings to the team is the Immunity Challenges. Since the tribes merge, this is no longer something that will be useful to them. For that reason I see that it is also possible that Nick could be voted out unanimously, since both sides will see him as not only a threat to their survival post merger, but also as one that is completely useless in the everyday aspect of the tribe. So really I have it narrowed down to the four that I think are possible to be voted out - Michael, Nick, Jeff and Alicia. The most likely of these to me is Nick and the least likely is Michael. Nick is my best guess for Kucha right now, just because it would be advantageous for everyone else if he were to be voted off.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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02-27-01, 08:19 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
I agree with a lot of this. I have a few questions, tell me what you think:J/A: Yes, they will vote together. They may not like Michael and may recognize his threat, but they do need to eat! Why vote him off right away? He is valuable to them, and I can see that winning out for now. Getting Nick to vote with them is a big assumption - they have bad-mouthed him.
L/R: They will vote together. I feel very certain that Michael is part of this alliance: these 3 went on the boat together to discuss last week's vote; M/R have been a team taking care of the chickens and pig butchering; Michael must know that he needs an alliance for protection, and I just can't see him with J/A. Nick: Yes, he is the wild card. We don't know the truth about him. Is he in an alliance? Did he tell Kimmi he was voting for Jeff? If so, was it true at the time he said it? And, is he even really lazy?? This has been coming up as a given, but we only have ever heard it from J/A a couple of weeks ago. I don't consider them the best source for objective fact. And yes, Nick himself talked about "busywork", but since then there has been a lot of work to do. He may not be as stand-out useless and lazy as we are imagining. We still have a lot to learn about Nick - which is another reason I don't see him going yet. My first guess as to the bootee is Alicia, based on comments made by Rodger and Liz last week, and the fight. Provisional guess is Jeff, since that would still break up their alliance, and it could have been true at the time that Kimmi heard it, that some were voting for Jeff. And, if they know the tie break rules, Jeff has 2 votes already, so an alliance of three could guarantee a Jeff ouster even if there was a tie.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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02-28-01, 10:07 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
>J/A: Yes, they will vote together.
> They may not like
>Michael and may recognize his
>threat, but they do need
>to eat! Why vote
>him off right away?
>He is valuable to them,
>and I can see that
>winning out for now. This is very possible, and I agree that they need to eat and so far Michael is the one providing that. Maybe I am giving Jeff and Alicia too much credit here, but if I were them I would see this as a huge threat to them. Michael is not just the most physical of this group but has the possibility of being the most popular with the Oga-whore's since he does get food. This would be a threat to me, if I were them, because I would say he has a shot at winning it all and I would want to get rid of him as quickly as possible for that reason, and I would learn to get food on my own. Again I may be giving them more credit than they deserve, and they may truly just be thinking about the current day and not about the game.
>L/R: They will vote together.
>I feel very certain that
>Michael is part of this
>alliance: these 3 went on
>the boat together to discuss
>last week's vote; M/R have
>been a team taking care
>of the chickens and pig
>butchering; Michael must know that
>he needs an alliance for
>protection, and I just can't
>see him with J/A.
I totally agree with this statement. So far there is no logical reason to disbelieve it.
>
>Nick: Yes, he is the wild
>card. We don't know the
>truth about him. Is
>he in an alliance?
>Did he tell Kimmi he
>was voting for Jeff?
>If so, was it true
>at the time he said
>it? And, is he
>even really lazy?? This
>has been coming up as
>a given, but we only
>have ever heard it from
>J/A a couple of weeks
>ago. I don't consider
>them the best source for
>objective fact. And yes,
>Nick himself talked about "busywork",
>but since then there has
>been a lot of work
>to do. He may
>not be as stand-out useless
>and lazy as we are
>imagining. We still have
>a lot to learn about
>Nick - which is another
>reason I don't see him
>going yet.
> I also see your reasoning here, because we have not learned nearly enough about Nick yet. But I see him as a huge threat to everyone after the merger since he is athletic. We could learn about him this episode pretty easily if he were to be ousted, and I believe that his lack of airtime is not a guarantee that he stays with us. In everything that they have shown us, Nick has not been as productive to the group as has anyone else in the group(except possibly Liz who I can not recall seeing doing much work at all). That sided with the fact that he is a threat to everyone post merger makes me think that he could be a prime candidate to go. The lack of airtime could be an indicator, but I do not see any reason to buy into that just yet, since he could get a load of airtime on this episode, should he be eliminated.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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02-28-01, 11:13 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
Thanks for your comments. Yeah, J/A are pretty scheming and know that Michael is a threat to them. The thing is too, that just the two of them is not enough to vote him off, and even if they could pull Nick to vote with them (big if), it would stil be a tie. And, if Kuchas know about the tiebreak rule, and if L/R/M realize that there is 3 against them, (again, big ifs, I know), then all they need to do is vote for Jeff, and his two previous votes will oust him.I totally agree, if we see a Nick -themed ep 6, it will look ominous for him. His status is just such a mystery! I am really pretty curious about his "alliance" status. But even one episode where he gets more airtime seems like not enough. I'm going to stay with my prediction that he will not go yet, and even that he will go quite far.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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02-28-01, 12:04 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
MB is definitely sneaky like that. It seems umlikely that Nick would be gone, but MB is not above doing that type of thing.
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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-27-01, 03:56 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
Sexist!!! (Just joking, Shakes!)I think it's gonna be Alicia - she was close to being outta there courtesy of Liz and Rodger till they opted for Kimmi. Weeeelll, now that Kimmi's gone, guess who I think L&R might set their sights back on? And actually, you are right - 1. She's in great shape, but doesn't have the same strength that a guy does. It does make her a threat in the physical challenges (against Liz and Rodger, actually! Funny how those two names keep coming up!) 2. She does, however, have a big mouth and a shitty attitude that has already pissed off her tribe-mates. She and Jeffy V. are the kind of trash-talking troublemakers you don't want to turn your back on. 3. We know, now that Kimmi's gone, that Liz and Rodger don't trust her and want her out. Who's to say that Mike and Nick don't feel the same way, and are just playing their cards a little closer to the vest? The only one we know for certain is on Alicia's side is Jeffy V - and I wouldn't trust that diva as far as I could throw him! So there's my speculation - if Kucha goes to TC, it's Bon Voyage Muscle Queen!!! ****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)
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FunkyD 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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02-27-01, 04:42 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
I haVe been a passive reader for awhile, but now think it's time to poke my head out of the bushes and say "Hi!"  Kucha is a difficult call because of the lack of intrigue (except for Kimmi's ouster, which was pretty easy to call). I believe this could be 1 of 2 possiblities, or a little of both: - Winning 3 ICs in a row has left them complacent, and unified as a team, again sans Kimmi. This has lessened the perceived importance of alliances, at least for the time being. As Jeff said, the goal is to wreck the other team. If they are unified with 6 votes going into the merger, then this will be easy for them to pull off. - A decision by MB to cut the face time of Kucha since they were not voting anyone out. More time to set up the Ogakor votes. However, I think the following picture has emerged: Mike still has the highest profile and is potentially vulnerable, but has managed to salvage a rocky start with his fishing and hunting. Even Jeff was pleased with a pork dinner. I think this will easily carry him into the merger, but there is a rocky road ahead of him after that. Rodger and Elisabeth are friends, but I wouldn't call them a voting block. I think that it may be limited to not voting against each other. Of course it's hard to tell since Kucha's only votes have been "unanimous". I doubt either one of them are in jeopardy for now. Jeff and Alicia are the closest thing that Kucha has to an alliance. However even this is a little loose compared to the situation in Ogakor. I don't think the rest of the tribe is particularly mad at Alicia. I think that the rest of the tribe blamed Kimmi for the discord, and took the appropriate action. However, Alicia can have a bit of a temper, and that may be problemmatic down the road. Jeff has been a chronic complainer and that, coupled with 2 votes against him from previous TCs, could work against him, but I think he's at most an outside shot to be booted. That leave Nick, who seems to be the odd man out, but this could just be due to MB editing. However, he hasn't been shown to contribute much to the tribe and took heat a couple weeks ago for his furniture making. He seems a logical choice to give the next boot to, should Kucha lose again.
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-28-01, 00:29 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-01 AT 00:29 AM (EST)Kucha is simple I think. Mike is seen with Rodger and Elisabeth probably trying to feel them out and bond with "the good guys." Rodger crowned Mike the leader and has little reason to want him off except that he is stronger than Rodger (but everyone is probably physically stronger than Rodger)! Nick is disliked by Jeff and Alicia so he moves to Mike, Rodger and Elisabeth. It's 4-2. Whether Jeff sees this and goes crying to the 4 block for mercy doesn't matter. Elisabeth knows the whole issue with Alicia and Kimmi's words. She and Rodger don't want "waves" in the tribe and Alicia demonstrated her loss of control. Plus, she is as much of a threat to win challenges as anyone, if not more. Even Jeff knows "you don't mess with her." He could change his mind and add to what Elisabeth probably confides in Rodger, that she should go. It's either 4-2 or 5-1 against Alicia. Unless Alicia is the injured person, the injury theory/spoiler/promo, has nothing to do with the overall outcome. If she is, Nick is probably the main target, but Jeff could be too.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-28-01, 02:18 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Time to speculate: Kucha loses Immunity" |
"A stunning turn of events leaves the tribes in emotional turmoil"...Kucha goes from completely in control at 7-5 to a shaky 5-5 at merger. The two mini-alliances Jeflicia and Rogabeth are considering if it makes sense to jump ship and align with the Ogakor block after merger (they can only speculate that Ogakor has a stronger alliance than Kucha). Then it makes sense for either mini-allaince or even both to boot the strongest member as "the dynamics of the game are about to change". Mike,(whose hands are burned anyway), becomes the sixth member to be "voted off" after Kucha loses or is disqualified, or concedes so they can vote off the injured member. Mike then gets to know the other bootees, as per their interviews, gains his weight back, and fails to get to know Keith very well...the pieces off the puzzle fall into place.
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