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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-01-09, 08:03 PM (EST) "State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" Welcome to the SOTS where we try to one-up EPMB and accurately predict the results of Survivor before it airs... sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will always try! Last week, for Thanksgiving, we had the season's recrap. I could have recapped the whole season with just one letter: V No, not V for Visitors like in that lame show on ABC. V for Virus as in Swine Flu Virus. The swine has infected the season and all the castaways. You didn’t know that Russell was the swine flu carrier? What did you think Influenza A (H1N1) meant? It’s so clear: H1N… You have to replace the first 1 with the corresponding A to reveal HAN. With H = 8 and N = 14, from H1N1, you get (8-1) + (14-1) = 20 ==> T Finally, the A at the beginning of the code has to be transposed to the end, becoming a Z. So there you have it: The A (H1N1) Virus is really code for (HANT) Z. Like news of the virus, the swine has been all over our TV screen this year and he’s planting his seed in both tribes. Think about it: The only players that had been snuffed before the merge had been in close contact with Hantz, even Yasmin and Swan, the latter during that long bocce ball challenge. Monica wasn’t saved by the Club Med alliance but because she stayed as far away from Hantz as she could, sitting out most challenges. Natalie, Jaison and Mick all survived the Virus but did you see how much they suffered? They’ve developed enough antibodies and are doing fine now. Unfortunately, the Galu members weren’t prepared for the Russwine pandemic. If we could figure out what made Shambo resistant to the infection, we could probably solve this crisis. Could it be her mullet? That look is enough to scare away even the toughest virus. If it's the case, the prevention campaign will have a tough time convincing people. The next episode #11 is titled: “Off With Their Heads.” Who says the title quote and which heads are in danger? 4 possibilities were brought up: 1- Someone turned a wheel and we’ve flashed back to Survivor: The French Revolution. If that is the case then the heads of Louis Seize and Marie-Antoinette are in danger. However, I don't see a guillotine in the previews and we'd certainly have seen one if this was the case. 2- It's the Double Boot episode that we didn't have when Swan left. Again, nothing in the previews supports that possibility. 3- Shambo, after lopping off Laura’s head, continues to on her war path and goes after Monica. 4- Daisy’s mocking days are over. The title likely refers to this scene: Mick killing one of the chickens would symbolize just how far Foa Foa has come. Dave didn’t want to eat a chicken until all the Foa Foas had been eliminated but now, flaunting their numbers, the hungry Foans decide it’s feast time. There’s one problem with that: Foa Foa still needs Shambo and she’s been very protective of those chicken. But then, you have Monica hatching a plan with Dave that sounds very risky: Monica (to Dave): "If this goes bad, I owe you big time." Is she planning to infiltrate Foa Foa? If so, she could let Mick go after Daisy and whatsisname. The vidcaps were brought to us by Flowerpower and the discussion can be found here The first thing we see is that the previews all seem to apply to this week’s episode. We have pictures of 2 "challenges" each with 9 participants. There’s no indication of images from the Final 4 this time (thankfully as far as I’m concerned). The episode must start with some more gloating from Russwine: Russell HAMmingway saying: "I'm gonna write a book on how to win Survivor" (How funny it would be if he fell off the cliff!) After that, we should be going to the Reward "Challenge" It's the Traditional Survivor Auction: Survivor auctions have often been fun. Which was your favorite? - Survivor Tocantins where Taj nearly ripped Jeff’s arm off when she realized she had won a date with Eddie. - Survivor Micronesia when James ate the rejected bat and Natalie told Parvati, Alexis and Cirie that they could eat cake but had to let her have the first bite because she was a little "aggro". My favorite is still Survivor Africa’s auction: Tom’s reaction as he realized the surprise item he had just bought with Ethan was a complete breakfast. What made him the happiest was that he wouldn’t have to share the ham because: “He’s a Jew!” We have a few vidcaps from the Auction but no hint as to whether someone gets to steal an opponent's money. With no Exile island, maybe this twist isn't used this time. We do see: Natalie's reaction after Jeff says she could bid on a date with me! Dave looks down Natalie's dress. Monica bids on a surprise item... "It better be something good"... "OH!" Russell: "Dumbass Monica didn't read my book so she got the shaft" The key moment of the Auction is this: Who will bid for an advantage at the Immunity Challenge? Jeff thinks it's worth a lot: Monica won't be buying it: "I only had 5 bucks left.” After the challenge, the Survivors will be returning to camp where Jethro Tull will be playing the half-time concert. (That’s for fans of classic rock) After some meaningless character development crap we should be going to: The Immunity Challenge: It's an endurance challenge: Sometimes these challenges are like watching paint dry (think of Palau’s 12 hour marathon between Tom and Ian or China’s game of cups that Amanda won) but some have been memorable: - Borneo where Hatch showed he was smarter than Burnett when he dropped out of the challenge. - Australia where Ogakor protected Keith while making Colby appear vulnerable. - Micronesia where everyone acted as if they were tricking Jason into giving up when they were actually setting up Ozzy. My favorite is the one from Amazon where Rodger never figured out he was the target. What made it really memorable was Jenna and HeiDDi promising Jeff they'd jump naked off their podium for peanut butter and chocolate: Jenna shows how easy it is to get her naked. Our genius HeiDDi shows her IQ. This one looks like it will be boring: See John sleeping... See John scratching... Mick is so bored, he's imagining being on water skis... After a while, we see John reaching the end of his rope... Dave is also hanging on by the tip of his fingers while Jaison seems to have a lot of rope left. This could be where the Auction advantage plays a role, extending his rope. Who wins? Well, this seems to have been spoiled as noted by OutFrontGirl immediately after the recrap: That's certainly Jaison's shirt. It tells us he will win immunity at some point and, since all vidcaps appear to be from episode #11, he’s the best bet right now. So, now we’re at the strategy portion of the program and the previews try to pull us in many different directions: John and Russell planning on voting out Mick. That's probably Russell messing with John, making him think there is a chance in RussHell that he’ll follow on his promise of 1 Galu first but 1 Foa Foa next. Shambo leading a cabal against Russell Seen after episode 10: Shambo: <talking to John and Dave> Let's pull the trigger... Dave: I agree...He's a cancer we've got to dump him now... Shambo: <talking to Jaison>: So, Mick's on board with the plan? Jaison: Yeah, we're all with you, Sham. Monica planning a high risk move with Dave. Russell and Dave plotting against Shambo This one could be promising, if not in this episode then maybe soon because we also are shown that old friends are becoming enemies and vice-versa: They are even trying to convince us that there could be trouble inside the F2 alliance: Russell attacking Natalie: "Why would you do something stupid like that?" Nat: "I didn't do that" Then there's: Shambo working on her strategy... Shambo having a dream (Cao Boi's dream didn't work too well, did it?!) "I dream some really crazy things. I think that's God's divine intervention at work... I had a dream last night we voted Dave off." So, who will it be? The case for Shambo: She seems to think she's in charge and, sooner or later, that will cause a reaction from Russell. Probably not with the numbers the way they are right now but after another Galu or two leave? I'd say most likely. The case for Dave: He had many scenes in the recap and he’s the closest thing left to a leader in Purple. Shambo’s dream also points to him. The case for Monica: She’s always on the block but it never turns out to be her turn. Shambo had a very motherly scene with her in the recap so that could help. Also, John was the one after her but now he’s thinking of Mick. Then there's this vidcap: Odd picture which could be a clue to Monica's exit. However, if Russell continues to keep strong physical players in the game, he'll deserve to see one make a run to the end which could kill his plan. That brings us to: The case for Brett: He’s one of the best athletes left so it could put a target on his back. His airtime increased in the last episode and in the recap. It seemed to be more of a new start than an end. Anyway, Brett has put back his designer camouflage T-Shirt because he’s nowhere to be seen in the promos. The case for John: John's also a good athlete. No one likes a fence sitter. Monica's way to infiltrate Foa Foa could be selling out her “best friend” John. Her vote could be important if Yellow can’t count on Shambo. Some, like CTGirl, think that Dave and John are the two that make most sense. I'd have to agree. Also, it was strange that the recap didn't even mention John's supposedly clever move in the previous TC. I saw that move as a great way to kill his chances of ever getting the jury votes but booting him would show just how poorly he judged the situation. I hope you can join us in the editing thread that is found here. We’ve got a fun discussion going as always. If Russell is the story of the season, there are some hints that he may fall short. Mick, with his consistent edit and Natalie, with her good social game, could give him problems in front of the jury. Jaison and Shambo also have strong edits but with too many flaws to get them to the end. For example: Jeff practically told us that Shambo should go home because she couldn't catch fish. Jaison winning after telling us Survivor is the worst decision of his life would be very odd. What clues have you noticed? For those who must know, Brownroach has been keeping track of the source spoilers from Missyae. Even if spill-over is inevitable, I thank you for keeping the discussion in that thread. So, to recapitulate: Most Confessionals: RussHell. Reward = Auction: Monica gets tricked, Jaison gets the IC advantage and most of the others get something. Immunity: Jaison. Boot: John. If you have a different opinion, let us know in this thread. If there are new developments, I will edit this post and make a new one to alert everyone. Once you’ve decided who goes, be sure to visit Dabo’s voting thread found here. Thank you for reading and enjoy the show. Popcorn, chips and beer can help...Lots of beer! Do you know the difference between bird flu and swine flu? The first needs tweetment, the other Oinkment.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... CTgirl 12-01-09 1  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... Flowerpower 12-02-09 2  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... samboohoo 12-02-09 3  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... emydi 12-02-09 4  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... goldenmike4393 12-02-09 5  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... Tercel 12-02-09 6    RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... PepeLePew13 12-02-09 8  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... suzzee 12-02-09 7  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... Brownroach 12-02-09 9  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... Outfrontgirl 12-02-09 10  RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode... Scarlett O Hara 12-02-09 11  Press Release Brownroach 12-03-09 12    RE: Press Release michel 12-03-09 13        RE: Press Release Outfrontgirl 12-03-09 15    RE: Press Release Outfrontgirl 12-03-09 14  Great SOTS kircon 12-03-09 16

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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-01-09, 08:23 PM (EST) 1. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" Awesome, awesome job michel! You've spoiled the entire show and I think you were spot on for everything! A funny and clever SOTS: figuring out that Russwine was the carrier for H1N1 was hysterical and I LOLed at Russell HAMmingway too. Great job. *groan* Please pass me a beer!   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 08:43 AM (EST) 2. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" Michel, you never disappoint! A strong and thorough SOTS served with a big side of RussHell humor...well done! You certainly covered all the bases and included all of the usual suspects. I agree with you 100%. John is playing both sides of the fence, and we all know what that means, as others have noticed....it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the writing on the wall...thanks so much, as always! fp one nation, under Romber...   Top

samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 11:37 AM (EST) 3. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" Well done, Michel. (And all of you SOTS writers). I don't always get to read them all. LOL at Big Tom. That is such a memorable clip in Survivor history. And, I am in the middle of watching S2 through Netflix while I work out at 5:30 a.m. I just saw that IC challenge on Monday. Yesterday was the infamaous "Honeymoon without the Sex" and ultimate betrayal of Jerri by Colby. Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 11:47 AM (EST) 4. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" GREAT SOTS michel! I forgot about the "He's a Jew" auction thanks for the laugh! I also think that John is a goner bc of the recrap clip of Jaison after the wrestling match saying he's going after John   Top

goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 12-02-09, 12:57 PM (EST) 5. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" SPOT ON! Thanks for the SOTS with the holiday diversion, it's very important this week for me. PS I feel for the chicken, too, Shampoo.   Top

Tercel 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-02-09, 01:04 PM (EST) 6. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" Jethro Tull - LOL. Fave food auction -- I don't remember the players, but I think Cirie was involved. Somebody bought chocolate cake and couldn't (or wouldn't) share it, but let people lick her fingers afterward.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 03:12 PM (EST) 8. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" >Jethro Tull - LOL. Fave >food auction -- I don't >remember the players, but I >think Cirie was involved. >Somebody bought chocolate cake and >couldn't (or wouldn't) share it, >but let people lick her >fingers afterward. Yep, that was Cirie, and she sold the "rights to lick" to Erik, he actually paid a small sum to lick the leftover chocolate cake off her fingers when she was done eating. Great SOTS, michel! You summed everything up quite nicely.   Top

suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 01:12 PM (EST) 7. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" That was awesome. Great job once again. Have one on me. Bad girls have all the fun   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 05:02 PM (EST) 9. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" My my my, aren't you the sarcastic little SOTS writer -- comparing Russell to a swine just because he is the smartest player ever. Russell is better than everyone who has ever existed, even if he smells really bad. So get over it.* Very funny SOTS, michel! I especially like the solo picture of Shambo "strategizing." *you probably won't get this, if you haven't read the first few posts in a certain thread.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-02-09, 06:58 PM (EST) 10. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" LAST EDITED ON 12-02-09 AT 07:01 PM (EST) Wonderful SOTS, michel, hilarious, sarcastic, and yet methodical and insightful. I like the cases that you made for the various players. A couple comments: the "cancer" scene was heavily manipulated. When I first saw it after Ep 10, I felt the intent was to show, as you say ... >>>Shambo leading a cabal against Russell Seen after episode 10: Shambo: <talking to John and Dave> Let's pull the trigger... Dave: I agree...He's a cancer we've got to dump him now... Shambo: <talking to Jaison>: So, Mick's on board with the plan? Jaison: Yeah, we're all with you, Sham. Thing is, Dave's line was shown in the recrap, and he said it about Erik, so at least one part of this is from an earlier part of the game. That 25 sec promo started with Russell opening the chicken cage as if it's coming up, but the recap showed us it was earlier footage from just post merge. Tricky promo. Watched it again frame by frame, and Shambo is talking to Dave (at minimum) when she says "let's pull the trigger." Dave's arm with his dark long sleeve shirt is in the frame. However, the cut to John and Dave is the scene where they decide to boot Erik, so John may not be present when Shambo says pull the trigger. For all we know, Shambo's giving the OK to pull the trigger on Daisy. Never can tell. Thank you michel for putting all the spoiling in perspective. Loved the decoding. ;D   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-02-09, 09:20 PM (EST) 11. "RE: State of the Spoiling - Episode #11: "Off with their Heads"" Well done Michel! An entertaining and comprehensive SOTS! Pretty darn good for a Spoiler-free dude!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-09, 01:09 PM (EST) 12. "Press Release" LAST EDITED ON 12-03-09 AT 04:40 PM (EST) MayanSun had posted this at Sucks, I didn’t see it here anywhere -- Correction: now I see OFG had posted it in the Title thread last night, but maybe we can discuss it in the SOTS. AT THE SURVIVOR AUCTION, ONE HIGH BIDDER DECIDES TO GO HUNGRY IN EXCHANGE FOR A POTENTIALLY VALUABLE ADVANTAGE IN THE GAME, ON "SURVIVOR: SAMOA," THURSDAY, DEC. 3 "Off With Their Heads!" - The Foa Foas consider a risky move in the hours before tribal that may result in the betrayal of one of their own, on SURVIVOR: SAMOA, Thursday, Dec. 3 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network. ------------------------------------------ First part is obviously Jaison. Could the second half relate to the preview before the recrap that OFG discussed above, where we saw Shambo: <talking to Jaison>: So, Mick's on board with the plan? Jaison: Yeah, we're all with you, Sham. Are they talking about John or Dave here, or do Mick/Jaison consider booting Russell this week? (I'm not sure why Shambo would end up wanting to boot Russell, but nothing Shambo does makes any sense.) Missyae was told that at some point Mick thought about leaving the Foa alliance so maybe this is that occasion. Anyway, it's clear that whatever betrayal is being considered by the Foas isn't going to happen. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-09, 07:13 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Press Release" LAST EDITED ON 12-03-09 AT 07:18 PM (EST) Thanks for bringing this over, BR. Would the promo guys consider Shambo part of Foa Foa now? That's what I think this could be. To me, Monica's move is the key to the episode. She's often made sense but no one listening. I think Dave will listen and that's the "Friends//Enemies" part of the promo. Shambo wants to stay with John, maybe she realizes that Russell is a liar so Foa Foa change partners once more and keep pagoning Galu with the help of Monica and Dave. If that's the case, it would be impressive: FF first teamed up with "Luara" and Kelly to vote out Erik after they sided with Shambo and John to get Laura and now they'd be with Monica and Dave to get John and Shambo. ETA: Thanks everyone for the kind words.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-09, 07:33 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Press Release" good spec, michel ... your post wasn't up when I started my reply to BR. >>> Would the promo guys consider Shambo part of Foa Foa now? That's what I think this could be. I wondered that too. (See Reply #5 on the title thread, where I posted the Press Release yesterday. Didn't know if it belonged on the SOTS or not, but it does seem good to consolidate the last minute spec.) It could well be as you say that there's an idea of switching Dave and Monica in to replace Shambo/John, although it's hard for me to see Russell seriously considering that. He has his plan to use Shambo at F5. I suppose he could pretend to consider it long enough to get their help to boot John, but will he agree to vote Shambo, and do they want to boot Shambo, I just don't know.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-09, 07:26 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Press Release" Even though it's not going to happen, I too would like to figure it out, as the bootee is source spoiled - but the details are not. I think a number of things we've been shown must relate to this move, including the scene where Russell accuses Natalie of saying something stupid that she denies. Shambo is solidifying Jaison and Mick. Jaison says we're ALL on board, and ALL should include at least one more person, no? Otherwise he would say, yeah, we're both on board. So does he mean Natalie alone, or does he mean Natalie and Russell? If they were following Russell's plan, wouldn't Shambo just go to Russell to get confirmation? I think Shambo must be going a different direction and trying to get the other Foa Foa to follow her. That MAY be why Natalie gets caught in the middle. Ultimately, Natalie will prove her loyalty is to Russell, and that could be pivotal here. But why is there this schism? Why would they follow Shambo? Shambo is indeed unpredictable, but we've seen nothing so far indicating she would turn on Russell. He made the Kelly boot happen, and went for broke on Laura. I really think Shambo is not interested in saving any Galu other than possibly John, and she seems close to Brett. That leaves Dave and Monica as her targets, and besides the dream, the recap focused on her clashes with Dave. Plus Russell is telling Dave he can save him, which indicates Dave is a target. Monica seems to want to boot John. (surprise). Dave I would say wants either John or Shambo gone. John wants a FF gone, can't have Jaison, so hopes for Mick. Dave and Monica are cooking up some kind of plan, and seem to be working with Russell. It's all very confusing to me. What makes sense to me is that John and Dave will be alt targets, but what would be the risky move that would betray one of the Foa Foa? Note that "betrayal" doesn't necessarily mean boot. One thing that's clear is that Russell doesn't have five votes at his service to boot John if Shambo is determined to go another direction, so it makes sense that he would negotiate with Dave. Re Mick, this would be a really odd time for him to turn on Russell and try to get him out. Mick is envisioning Russell as an end game partner, as is Natalie, as is Shambo. I think if Mick considered turning it would have been when Galu had the numbers and the Foa Foa appeared doomed.   Top

kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-03-09, 07:38 PM (EST) 16. "Great SOTS" Thanks Michel, you did a wonderful job! I haven't had a chance to read much this week. You have everything plus some great lines and pictures. Thanks!!!   Top

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