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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 02:06 PM (EST) "SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" LAST EDITED ON 11-18-09 AT 08:27 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 11-17-09 AT 06:57 PM (EST) Survivor 19: Samoa State of the Spoiling – Episode 10 Welcome to the SOTS where we try to one-up EPMB and accurately predict the results of Survivor before it airs... sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will eternally try! If you are new to these boards, please take a look at our Community Guidelines. You will find them helpful in navigating your way around SurvivorBlows. This week, our title thread was brought to us by SquidProQuo, which was initially reported by Volcanic Glass at Survivor Phoenix. Many of our sharper tools in our Blows shed speculated that this title would refer to Laura in some way, shape, or form, going against the majority grain in our boot thread that had Laura as toast. We should have listened, as indeed it does. We don't know how, as the promo promises, but, it is going to be the most dramatic TC yet! After last weeks dramatic blindside of Kelly, we are eager to see if EPMB and company can deliver! The Day of Reckoning We got our first clues to the Day of Reckoning with the preview promo which aired following episode 9, which are found in our Vidcap Thread posted by SquidProQuo. Here's what Jiffy and the voice over had to tell us... Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor...it's a showdown between Russell and Laura. Laura: It's only a matter of time, Russ. Russell <in confessional> : I'm 10 times smarter than she could ever be. Jeff Probst: And finding the next idol means everything. Dave: Their moving. (Russell and Jaison shown walking through jungle) Laura: Go get 'em. Let's follow them. Russell: <starts running> : Come on Dave! Laura: We need to get that immunity idol out of Russell's hands. Clearly, it will be Russell vs. Laura for the entire episode. If you are like me, you are already thinking...hmmmm, RussHell, the DAW that seems to be the only one showing any initiative and serious game playing this season vs. Laura, who appears to be a major bi-otch with a capital B, and thinks she can outwit by winning rewards and relaxing while others are left to scramble....hmmmm? Our next set of clues came with the misdirection from CBS... 1. TEMPERS FLARE AND AN ALLIANCE THREATENS TO SPLINTER APART AT THE MOST DRAMATIC TRIBAL COUNCIL YET, ON "SURVIVOR SAMOA" There is alot of discussion regarding this clue. First of all, many are pondering the possibility of a tie vote. As reported by Georgianna here, Missyae made a comment over on another board, So on an upcoming eppy one of the players is so concerned about a tie vote possibility at Tribal Council that they went to producers for a clarification of the rules so they knew how to plan. And, let's face it, a tie vote would certainly spice up the ole TC. Some are speculating a re-vote, while others are speculating a purple rock scenario. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that it could indeed be a tie vote with FF+Shambo vs. Galu. The operative word in the above clue is threatens...an alliance threatens to splinter...well, it will or it won't...if it does, who will it be? Well, when we apply the second clue, we can continue to ponder this question... 2.A clever castaway jeopardizes the success of a scheme to ensure their own safety in the game. Most are speculating that the clever castaway who cares more to ensure their own safety and less about the success of a scheme is indeed John. Arguments that favor John include: 1. Kelly told us that the Galu's realized it was John that first wanted to target Monica that led to Eric's demise, NOT Eric. 2. We can deduce that John must know that Shambo is in good with the FF's. He must know that Laura and company suspect he could have had a hand in aiming for a Monica boot. He had to have been sweating with the last TC and felt great relief when Kelly was the chosen one. In other words, John must know that he is at the bottom in the pecking order, and therefore he is most vulnerable to switch, in order to outlast his Galu tribemates. 3. Kelly also was asked who she thought would be the most likely to switch if Shambo was with the FF4, and she answered, John. See what else Kelly had to say to our own SquidProQuo here. For other interviews see Snidget's RTVW and other Interviews thread here. The second option for the clever castaway is Brett. CTGirl speculates that this solo shot of Brett in the full promo is indeed significant, and stands out as there are not alot of solo shots other than RussHell and Laura this week... With the way the vidcaps are lined up, it does insinuate that Brett does quite well and may indeed win the IC. But, additionally others here at Blows speculate that from day one in the first episode Brett had the first confessional and it was tied directly to Shambo. Speculation is that they must have something that ties them together far more than what we have seen so far. This could be the episode that Brett finally emerges....could he be the clever castaway? The full promo notes this: Narrator: 2 Immunity Idols played... Laura: We totally underestimated Russell's capability of finding the Idol. Narrator: 2 victories for Russell... Jeff: The tribe has spoken (shots of Erik and Kelly voted out) Narrator: Now... Jeff: The hidden immunity idol goes back into play. Narrator: A 3rd Idol is hidden on the island. Laura: We need to keep the Immunity Idol out of Russell's hands. Russell: They're like magnets to me. ***Now here are shots of the challenges. Could be one RC with trying to break your opponents tiles, along with shots of the IC where there is the arrow shooting on a bullseye target...sure looks like Brett gets a bullseye indeed! Or, it could be shots of one challenge with different heats*** Narrator: Will he find it and become the greatest Survivor ever? Russell: I know I don't need it. (laying in a hammock, cocky attitude, can't see who he's saying this to) Narrator: Or the biggest fool? First off, let's discuss the challenges. Clearly the tile breaking one is re-cycled from a previous Survivor. It is tricky as when aiming at others, you can break tiles that you did not mean to break. But, I agree, this challenge is designed to reveal the pecking order. Which, imo, bodes nicely with our second clue regarding our clever castaway. His standing in the pecking order is revealed, and thus, just another point to weigh when considering a flip. Next, this full promo is all about the 3rd hidden II. Will it be found, and will RussHell be the most clever survivor ever, or the biggest fool? All of the other promos ask the same questions and use the same footage. It does appear that RussHell is saying it to another daw, and not in a confessional, as his eyes are looking directly at them. He is either being cocky with someone from the FF4 + Shambo, OR, he could be bluffing with one of the Galu's. With the Missyae spoilers brought to us by Brownroach and with the way that Russell has been attacking this game, my money is on him... So: RC WINNER:Most likely to win: someone like Brett, least likely to win: RussHell, Laura, John. IC WINNER:Most likely to win: Brett, Most likely to lose: Natalie, Monica, Laura MOST Likely to FIND the HII: RUSSELL BOOT: LAURA ...or, here she is as the wicked witch of the West, and since vampires are in vogue... *I will note that there are a few holes in this prediction, notably that Jiffy spilled in his blog last week that Laura will never see it coming...this week, I don't see how she could possibly be blindsided, but, as I have noted, in an episode that pits Russell vs. Laura, my money is on Russell. Don't forget to go and vote, in Dabo's vote thread. Please stop by and visit Veruca Salt's The Players, the Game, the Editing Thread. Check out esquire's Sticking Together Thread, and SquidProQuo's Jiffy's EW Blog Thread. LATE BREAKING SPOILER FROM MISSYAE, HERE!!!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" goldenmike4393 11-17-09 1    TDT IS SPOILING REWARD: Monica/Joh... goldenmike4393 11-19-09 20  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" emydi 11-17-09 2  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" michel 11-17-09 3    RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" SquidProQuo 11-17-09 4  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Max Headroom 11-18-09 5  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" redbeard103152 11-18-09 6  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Brownroach 11-18-09 7  Please check this out yucca 11-18-09 8    RE: Please check this out michel 11-18-09 9        RE: Please check this out yucca 11-18-09 10  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" CTgirl 11-18-09 11  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Outfrontgirl 11-19-09 12  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Outfrontgirl 11-19-09 13    RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Brownroach 11-19-09 17  Congrats FloPo jbug 11-19-09 14  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" SquidProQuo 11-19-09 15    RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" SquidProQuo 11-19-09 16        RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Outfrontgirl 11-19-09 19            RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" Outfrontgirl 11-19-09 21  RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning" RudyRules 11-19-09 18

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goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 11-17-09, 03:28 PM (EST) 1. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" AWESOME JOB! YOU MAKE IT LOOK EASY AND IT IS NOT! Thank you, Flo   Top

goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 11-19-09, 07:33 PM (EST) 20. "TDT IS SPOILING REWARD: Monica/John/Shambo/Mick/Natalie win" Monica/John/Shambo/Mick/Natalie win REWARD.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 05:42 PM (EST) 2. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" thanks flopo! you're a pro!   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-09, 06:52 PM (EST) 3. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" Great job, FP. I always love your SOTS! This is the week we should see what we've been expecting since episode #2 = Foa Foa taking over. Maybe that's all the drama and what Laura never saw coming.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 11-17-09, 09:55 PM (EST) 4. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" Awesome job as always FloPo!!! The wicked witch shot is hilarious. I must say, I will be soooo happy when Laura is finally gone. Thanks again for pulling this together. P.S. Check out my cool new siggie. (Thanks again Tribephyl!)   Top

Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-18-09, 09:49 AM (EST) 5. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" Very good job, FloPo. This looks like an exciting episode, and you've pulled the spoilers together nicely. agman's helping me survive   Top

redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-18-09, 11:26 AM (EST) 6. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" Great job as usual FloPo. No one puts things together as well as you do. Thanks.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-18-09, 12:21 PM (EST) 7. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" LAST EDITED ON 11-18-09 AT 05:08 PM (EST) A wonderful SOTS, FloPo. I'm also considering Dave for the role of the Clever Castaway, since he was "wowed" by Russell's play at the last TC. I don't really think it will be Brett, I'm sensing Brett will stay at relatively low visibility for the time being (though he may win immunity). ETA: just checked the Survivometer -- TDT has officially remanded Laura to the jurybox. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

yucca 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-18-09, 08:54 PM (EST) 8. "Please check this out" LAST EDITED ON 11-18-09 AT 08:56 PM (EST) http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_files/4b04950ca11888a7.jp I was trying to bring this vidcap over, but can't seem to figure it out. Over in the vidcap thread for this episode someone posted a picture of Russell, which at first looked like he found the idol in a tree or maybe was putting something in the tree. Then they blew it up and it showed that it was just a leaf in his left hand. However, could someone please look at his right hand. I swear it looks like the the wrapped up idol. I also posted over there but I think my post is lost in the long thread. Sorry, I got the hands mixed up. The leaf is in his left hand.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-18-09, 09:38 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Please check this out" Yucca: Here's the picture: I think it's another leaf.   Top

yucca 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-18-09, 10:19 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Please check this out" Thank you for bringing the picture over. I don't know. I guess we shall see tomorrow.   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-18-09, 10:41 PM (EST) 11. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" Awesome job FloPo! Glad to have you back for a SOTS. And the photo chop is great too! This season really is turning around. You and OFG have convinced me that John is the clever castaway, but that vidcap of Brett still bothers me! Looking forward to tomorrow night's show!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 08:08 AM (EST) 12. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" LAST EDITED ON 11-19-09 AT 08:10 AM (EST) Another home run from FloPo! You do make it look easy, but is surely is not. Love the bloodsucking wicked witch! I wonder if the idol comes into play ... but I think we know it does not get played. The idol has to be played after the votes are cast, and then votes for the idol holder don't count. So there would be no tie; it would be a repeat of Kelly. I wonder if the Galu dare to vote for Russell this time. They might vote Natalie. Kelly said she thought she, Laura, and Brett would make F3. I don't think Brett will give up on Galu while they still have a shot. John already lost his best ally, Erik, and FloPo has well summarized his position. Why would he go for a 1 in 7 chance of elimination by rock draw? The question asks if Russell will be the biggest FOOL ever? Why would it ask that if he doesn't find the idol? How would he be a fool? If he finds the idol but holds on to it, then he is taking a big chance on taking the James Clement Memorial Walk of Shame. I'm guessing he finds it and doesn't play it. Possibly he believes that Galu will very likely vote for another Foa Foa and it would be a waste. ETA - to CTGirl, I'm thinking the Brett shot is to show us a finalist without giving away who wins immunity - not Brett. Misdirection. Thanks again for giving your time to lay it all out this week, FlowerPower!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 09:19 AM (EST) 13. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" PS. Went over and read MESS since my last post. Some interesting spec that Russell makes up a fake idol package with old wrappings and string, not for someone else to find and be fooled, but so he can be seen "finding it" by a Galu. Then they would be afraid to vote for him. Interesting idea. Second, the rules are posted for ties, and actually there is another stage after the revote, if it deadlocks, which is a 2 minute powwow where everyone vulnerable to the rock negotiates to see if someone will agree to switch a vote. If that happens, I think that is it, no third vote. Pretty sure they did that in Marquesas before pulling out the bag of rocks. It would be interesting if the flip happened in front of everyone, very dramatic. I know missyae says on the revote, but I can hope that's a little wrong.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 11:58 AM (EST) 17. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" there is another stage after the revote, if it deadlocks, which is a 2 minute powwow where everyone vulnerable to the rock negotiates to see if someone will agree to switch a vote...Pretty sure they did that in Marquesas before pulling out the bag of rocks. They did. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

jbug 17146 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 10:10 AM (EST) 14. "Congrats FloPo" Not only for the great SOTS but..... you're linked from the RTVW front page!!!! Now this may not be something new but I've never noticed it before....   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 11-19-09, 11:27 AM (EST) 15. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" Hi OFG, yes we have the rules for the tie breaker posted in the vidcaps thread (if you want to check them out, it's post #50 -- and a few posts down Georjanna also brought over the HII rules). I'm thinking the 2-min. pow wow before the revote could be part of the "most dramatic TC yet" that CBS is hyping. Hope they show it! The other interesting thing is that it's not totally clear from the rules how the HII factors in to a tie, so that could be the point of clarification that one tribe asks the producers about, per the Missyae tip.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 11-19-09, 11:49 AM (EST) 16. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" P.S. to OFG: The spec that RussHell makes a fake idol started when someone over at Sucks noticed the photo that Michel posted above (#9)...but then when SP blew it up, it turned out it was just a leave. (There's more on this in the Vidcaps thread.) It could still be a good idea to throw Galu off the scent and buy FF some time to look for the HII. They could also use this ploy as a way to steer Galu away from a certain target (e.g., to make sure they go after RussHell vs. Natalie, or vice versa). But I'm thinking that RussHell knows the tie breaker rules very well and gets them clarified in the game, so he could actually WANT to be the target this week, so then he's immune from the purple rock. (Which could be why he says in the hammock shot that he knows he doesn't need the HII....it could even tie in with the clever castaway clue, since that kind of clever plan could backfire.)   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 07:23 PM (EST) 19. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" hey Squid, thanks! I had missed the later posts to the vidcap thread. That happens to me when I'm super busy and that topic gets really long. My bad. I did see all the enlargements showing it's just a leaf, but if Russell pretended to be finding an idol and putting it in his pocket, it doesn't matter what it is, as he doesn't need to show it to anybody. All he has to do is go through the motions in front of someone who is a distance away. That's what someone suggested at MESS. Probably doesn't happen, but it's a fun idea. If it weren't that everyone is convinced Russell is the master at idol-finding, such a fake out would never work, but I think he could pull it off.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 07:47 PM (EST) 21. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" I added my logic on the remaining puzzlement about the tiebreaker combined with idol to the vidcap topic discussion. http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi   Top

RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-09, 01:56 PM (EST) 18. "RE: SOTS, Ep 10, "Day of Reckoning"" GREAT SOTS Flo Po! Yup, it's an Agman creation! "...About everything we do around here is government intrusion in people's lives. So have at it." - Ray LaHood - Nobama's Secretary of Transportation   Top

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