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"Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:08 PM (EST)
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"Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
It's tht time of the week...time to take what we know (no matter how little that is) and try and apply it to well-thought out speculation and come up with a bootee. I am starting new threads for this cause the othe threads are becoming jumbled with all sorts of info, some of it relevant, some of it not.

So, to start us off....this thread is ONLY FOR seculation on what would happen if Ogakor loses Immunity....do not post about the injury on this thread, there will be a separate thread fotr that as well as a possible Kucha bootee.

Also, if you find yourself writing the sentence "....because I really hate Jerri and wnat her gone", DON'T waste our time by posting.....we want OBJECTIVE speculation hopefully based on some facts....we DO NOT WANT emotionally driven speculation based on what YOU WANT to happen in the Outback.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... Kokoro 02-27-01 1
   RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... shakes the clown 02-27-01 3
 What we have so far..... shakes the clown 02-27-01 2
   RE: What we have so far..... fedupwithothers 03-01-01 38
 If Ogakor loses...... MDSkinner 02-27-01 4
   RE: If Ogakor loses...... samiam 02-27-01 8
       RE: If Ogakor loses...... MDSkinner 02-27-01 14
 RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... Elwood 02-27-01 5
   RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... Kokoro 02-27-01 24
       Thanks! Elwood 02-28-01 34
 RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... weltek 02-27-01 6
   something Bitchell said during inte... shakes the clown 02-27-01 7
       Tina isnt safe Lockescythe 02-27-01 9
       RE: something Bitchell said during ... samiam 02-27-01 10
           RE: something Bitchell said during ... namssa 02-27-01 11
           Maralyn interview and Amber AyatollahKhomeini 02-27-01 20
               PS on samiam's signature AyatollahKhomeini 02-27-01 21
                   RE: PS on samiam's signature samiam 02-27-01 27
       RE: something Bitchell said during ... ItzLisa 02-27-01 19
       RE: something Bitchell said during ... MistyG 02-27-01 29
           RE: something Bitchell said during ... shakes the clown 02-27-01 30
               RE: something Bitchell said during ... MistyG 02-28-01 32
               RE: something Bitchell said during ... MistyG 02-28-01 33
 RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... FunkyD 02-27-01 12
   RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... rudysson 02-27-01 13
       RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... managerr 02-27-01 15
 Why Jerri will be gone dangerkitty 02-27-01 16
 Jerri ItzLisa 02-27-01 17
   Agree AyatollahKhomeini 02-27-01 23
 RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... Dalton 02-27-01 18
   Later, Jer. ACPS65 02-27-01 22
       RE: Later, Jer. MistyG 02-27-01 31
   RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... dangerkitty 02-27-01 25
       Keith's cooking AyatollahKhomeini 02-27-01 26
           Motorcycles? dangerkitty 02-27-01 28
               The Motorcycle Reference AyatollahKhomeini 02-28-01 36
       RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... samiam 02-28-01 35
           RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor lose... Lurking 03-01-01 37

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:20 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
Alright, ~if~ Ogakor loses immunity this week this is their last chance to eliminate a personal threat before the merger. This is where they'll have to put all personal feelings aside because even Jerri and Keith will have to vote together after the merger or risk total annhilation. (being 6-4 it should happen that way anyway, but we've been led to believe that it doesn't so...) I don't put much weight into the more-men-than-women "spoiler" anymore so this week it should come down to the two strongest-Colby and Keith. Since I also believe the info that Keith lost a ton of weight and there hasn't been anything about Colby like that, Colby is my pick.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:29 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
>it should come down to
>the two strongest-Colby and Keith.
> Since I also believe
>the info that Keith lost
>a ton of weight and
>there hasn't been anything about
>Colby like that, Colby is
>my pick.


...actually, there have been reports about weight loss regarding Colby. Plus, looking at how little they are eating at Ogakor, they could've already lost all that weight by now.

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:27 PM (EST)
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2. "What we have so far....."
...what do we know so far regarding Ogakor.

1 We know that Jerri and Lamber vote together.

2. We know that Keith and Tina will MOST LIKELY vote together, although we have heard from Mithell that Tina has always been a part of the Jerri/Lamber alliance, so she very well might jump back on that boat.

3. We know that Colby is the swing vote.

Here is some of the spoiler info that might be relevant.

- The rumor regarding the 6-4 man-woman split means that a woman has to go in this episode.

- Keith's cookbook is scheduled to be released March 1, which would make perfect sense if he were the next bootee so he could promote his book on the talk show circuit.

- Mike said that he didn't get to know Keith in the Outback, meaning that most likely one of them is soon to go.


Here is what the editing has shown us...


- Jerri clearly has more screen time than anyone else, and she is clearly the villian of this show

- Colby offered a deal to Jerri that would entail a Colby/Jerri/Amber alliance.

***Please add anythingI might've missed****


Now, on to the speculation:

I think that Amber and Colby are the MOST safe.

I think that Tina falls into the next category, but I think she is pretty much safe as well.


I think the only two that are really introuble are Keith and Jerri.

At this point I am leaning towards Keith.....the reason being that I think the teaser from last episode regarding a Colby/AMber/Jerri alliance will come into play this episode.

I think Colby has demonstrated an awareness for how this game is played and he knows that the time is now to eliminate one fo the strong members just before the merge...Keith is stronger than Jerri.

Keith leaving would help substantiate two spoilers, one being the Keith/Michael spoiler and the other being the March 1 book release...let us remember that at this point alst week we were debating the relevance of the "kimmi thong contest" spoiler.

That's all I'm gonna write for now, let's see what other people want to add or take away from this post.

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fedupwithothers 13 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-01, 11:24 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: What we have so far....."
shakes- you've been reading my mind. i see it playing out exactly this way too! by the way i'm new to this board/ couldn't stand others, i'm very impressed with how everyone seems to stay on topic here, and no name calling wow i've found some adults.
thanks
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:32 PM (EST)
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4. "If Ogakor loses......"
I believe that Jerri will indeed be voted off. The reason that I believe this is strictly because Colby currently is in complete control of the tribe and that whoever he wants to vote for will go, unless the others for some reason stray from the paths that they have taken so far. At this point the reason that I feel that he will try to get rid of Jerri is because before this past week she has been the one with the power in the group. If Colby agrees and votes for Keith or for Tina, then I believe that Colby loses that power that he currently holds. I also believe that voting out Jerri can help Colby in the merger. I feel that Tina and Keith together are less of a threat to Colby than are Jerri and Amber come merger time, and that he is more likely to keep the two old folks voting with him. That sided with the fact that Colby has appeared to grow tired of Jerri's attitude(stretcher challenge in particular) leads me to believe that Colby will want to get rid of Jerri, and Tina and Keith will certainly follow suit.
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 02:14 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: If Ogakor loses......"
"Colby currently is in complete control of the tribe"

Not to dispute you, but this only holds true if you believe that Keith and Tina are firmly allied and will continue to vote as a bloc. But one vote does not an alliance make, and we've seen Tina flip-flop in her loyalty before.


I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 03:22 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: If Ogakor loses......"
I completely agree with that assessment and by saying that Colby is in complete control I am assuming that Tina will continue to vote with the other oldy of the Tribe. But it is also possible that she will join a little womens alliance with Jerri and Amber, it just seems unlikely because of the previous episodes where she has been openly against Jerri. Things can absolutely change with this upcoming episode, but as of now it seems the most logical that Tina and Keith will vote together, as will Jerri and Amber, leaving Colby in control of who is ousted. You never know, Amber may also decide to flop because she grows tired of Jerri, but thinking that either of these two will flop right now is going further out on a limb than thinking that they will not. Going with logic and only logic, it seems most likely that Tina will continue to vote with Keith.
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Elwood 93 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:41 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
Hmm..okay..Okagor at TC. Someone must go. They need 4 core voters post-merger.

Colby - Could want Keith out, could want Jerri out. I don't think he'd see Keith as a threat post-merger, since if Keith wins and IC, he wont vote Colby off. Plus another strong person would give the Kuchas another possible target. If Colby shows with Jerri, Tina and Amber, he's just marking himself for death unless he can string together a LOT of IC wins. (and that would make it worse)

Keith - I can find no reason why he would NOT vote for Jerri. If he makes a deal with her to off Colby, I'll lose ALL respect for him and pray he rots in hell right next to her

Tina - Our quiet backstabber has voted for each bootee so far (as has Colby). I think she's gonna be safe (and I have all those shares of Tina is the last Ogakor left stock that I NEED to be worth something I see her in Colby's corner (moreso than Keith's). Also, while WE know she voted off people she "allied" with, does the rest of Ogakor?

Amber - I have no idea. Will probably vote with Jerri. I can't see someone lasting to EP 6 and being so invisible and then getting the boot. I think I know more about Kel or Deb than this ghost.

Jerri - Should be gunning for Keith. I can see her possibly trying to oust Colby. Is the most vulnerable at this point and knows it.

I think the key, if Ogakor goes TCing, is the Keith-Jerri spat. It really depends on WHY they fight. I mean we all know they don't like each other, and I think the rest of Ogakor knows, too. But what leads them to argue (ala Kimmi-Alicia) openly is crucial. I feel whoever is seen as the "instigator" is gone. I'm still trying to see where the "Black Widow" comment by MB plays in, as it can only refer to a Colby vote by Jerri. Possibly Jerri tries to get Colby offed, but fails? (I doubt it) Also I think the person breaking this little spat up MAY be Amber, and this could be when we see Jerri leave the limelight a bit, and Amber step up (she's gotta get some face-time, right?).

For harmony and post-merger assurdness of voting as a group, I'd say Jerri is the best bet to go, but Keith could possibly be the cause of the spat, and be seen as the "real" instigator of the tribe. I'm leaning towards Jerri from the available evidence.

But..I do have a little theory that's been gaining steam, based solely on the opening credits. It's a bit complicated and posted somewhere else, but according to it (which I don't put faith into, yet), if an Ogakor goes, it can be anyone BUT Jerri. (If Kucha goes, per this theory it's either Elisabeth or Jeff) I just noticed a trend after EP 3, and it held for EP's 4 and 5. Will bump the thread with the full theory after this EP if it holds true again.

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 06:17 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
LAST EDITED ON 02-27-01 AT 06:36 PM (EST)

Hey Elwood =)
I bumped your theory up the other day....I find it very interesting and if it works for this ep, I think it's solid. Infact it's really the only thing keeping me from jumping on the Jerri bandwagon.

According to Elwood's theory everyone is in danger ~except~ Jerri, but I feel that Amber is totally safe for a long while now. If the more-men-than-women-thing is still trusted at all the bootee is Tina (who also seems very safe) but I still think one of the two stronger will go. Before I said Colby but I'm reconsidering Keith....About the weight loss, I seriously don't think Ogakor is that bad off in terms of food (not any worse than last year's) - only when you contrast it with Kucha do you see a big difference. Now back to Keith; We know that Mike and Keith didn't get to know eachother within the tribe - this is one thing that shifts my focus to Keith. Also the fact that I've reconsidered my logic - Tina only seems to hang with Keith and Keith really only hangs with Tina and Colby.

Things we can infer about everyone:

Tina has expressed hatred for Jerri; I don't think she'd help her get rid of Colby.

Jerri is playing the game and would vote Colby out in a second, but I still think she sees Keith as a bigger threat.

Amber is Jerri's slave.

Keith has made it his mission to not let Jerri win.

Colby has really bonded with Keith but wouldn't hesitate to vote him out.

The only thing that I don't get if Keith goes is the black widow imagery....right now this would indicate Colby
Why does everyone see this to mean a ~failed~ attempt against Colby?

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Elwood 93 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-01, 04:32 AM (EST)
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34. "Thanks!"
I'm still not sold on it, but will keep track of it. I just remember during EP 2 wondering why some people had shots with a black border on the screen, and some didn't. After EP 4 I noted who did/didn't, and noticed a slight pattern as to booting. It held for EP 5, but I'm still not buying it, but if it holds AGAIN, well, I think I'll have to start going by it.

And I will definitely bump it if it holds again

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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 01:49 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
I'm torn between Jerri and Keith, but I am leaning towards believing the more men than women merge theory. So far that theory is valid.

Arguement for Keith going: cookbook release (only partially valid since it's already been sold at B&N), he's competition for Colby and Colby knows that. This also verifies that MB intends Jerri to be a continually strong character and that's why he's spent so much time on her.

Argument for Jerri going: above men/women theory, Jerri is also a threat for individual immunity-she's fairly tough and is intelligent, also, Colby might realize that if Jerri gets into the merger, her alliance forming skills might backfire on him. Also, it sounds like Amber might develop a personality. I can't see her doing that if Jerri continues to be around pulling her leash.

I think I've convinced myself that Jerri will be going, but it still doesn't set quite right with me.

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 02:00 PM (EST)
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7. "something Bitchell said during interviews...."
...is that he has NOT talked to Keith since leaving the game....how would that be possible if Keith is the next boote.

I know there are rumors about Bitchell and MadDog traveling together...but ahs anything been substantiated regarding that rumor.

The only person we know for sure that took a long vactation after getting booted was Debb who went to China.


Now, I'm starting to lean away from Keith...Im so confused.

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Lockescythe 52 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 02:30 PM (EST)
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9. "Tina isnt safe"
it would be fitting that tina left this week
for colby is somewhat friends with keith so jerris not sure if he will vote off keith but she knows he will probably vote off tina
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 02:36 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."
I guess the question is, does "leaving the game" to him mean being voted off, or does "leaving the game" mean leaving the Outback completely?

I found this on the Richmond Times-Dispatch's site:
http://www.timesdispatch.com/MGB6CPJO7JC.html
"What did you do after the Ogakor Tribe voted you off?
I stayed on the continent till the shoot was over. It was magic. Even when I came back knowing I hadn't won the million, everyone thought I did because I wanted to make sure my family and friends and my friends at Hunter's Way - where I board my horse and take lessons - had an Australian Christmas. I really contributed to the Australian economy!....
Where did the rest of the Ogakor and Kucha tribes go as they were voted off?
They were scattered to the four winds, but stayed on the continent."

Of course, she could be lying, too.


I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush

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namssa 24 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 02:48 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."
You are right. Deb said in an interview that she visted China while waiting for the shoot to end. She said she had over 2 months to kill. They send everyone back at the same time so that you can't tell the order of banishments. It would be obvious if Deb and Bitchell were sent home right after being voted off.

So everthing is basically speculation. My guess is that it is Jerri's turn. And that the injury is an illness or someone like Roger suffering from a heat stroke.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 04:39 PM (EST)
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20. "Maralyn interview and Amber"
samiam, thanks for the link to the Maralyn interview. I feel that Maralyn is the ONLY ex-survivor who has given us any info in her interviews. I have a post in a previous thread -

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/640.shtml#1

about the "Mad Dog 4" (flying squirrel's term; he expressed the belief on ss.com that the four people left out of Maralyn's list of contacts might be the final four, with Michael going fourth (perhaps due to the burn?) to explain his friendship with some of the early-booted survivors).

In my post, I question whether Maralyn might just have carried over some of her anger at Jerri to Amber, which is why she hasn't talked to Amber since the show (as she says in the chat). But your article contains this tidbit:

"Q: Why did you put your "Mad Dog" cap on Amber's head as you left Tribal Council?"

"Maralyn: Just a couple of days before I got the ax, I was starting to bond with Amber and was starting to call her the 'Mad Pup.' I wasn't using her as a hat rack ."

I'm starting to think flying squirrel may have been right in his contention that Maralyn's omissions were deliberate. Why else would she say that the "Mad Dog" had not talked to the "Mad Pup" since the end of the show? Because Amber doesn't want to talk to her? I think not --- For reasons expressed best by shakes in another thread, I think these people want to talk to each other DESPERATELY because there is no one else they can share stories with.

Just for the record, here are the "Mad Dog 4": Nick, Elisabeth, Michael, and Amber. I can visualize several endgames in which Alicia and Jeff were targeted, and immunity or injury led to Rodger's elimination before the last four, leaving this group. But I need to see the "accident in the Kucha camp" before I make any serious predictions.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 04:43 PM (EST)
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21. "PS on samiam's signature"
My favorite George W. Bush quote:

Reynoldsburg, OH, Oct. 4, 2000: Bush is asked whether he wished he could take back any of his answers in the first debate--

"I think if you know what you believe, it makes it a lot easier to answer questions. I can't answer your question."

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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 10:28 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: PS on samiam's signature"
Heh heh. I almost used that one. But there were oh-so-many to choose from! *sigh* I would laugh about it if I weren't crying.


I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush

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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 04:38 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."
>...is that he has NOT talked
>to Keith since leaving the
>game....how would that be possible
>if Keith is the next
>boote.

***Because Bitchell can't stand Keith. He probably wouldn't talk to Keith if they were seated side by side on the flight home. So, don't read too much into that remark. Keith could very well be next, but I still hold tight to my theory of why it will be Jerri packing her bags.


****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)

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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 11:34 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."
>...is that he has NOT talked
>to Keith since leaving the
>game....how would that be possible
>if Keith is the next
>boote.
>
I guess the only reasoning I can come up with is that Mitchell may have gone out of his way not to talk to Keith. Keith might have gone home to his family directly ( he does have a business to run) or maybe he and Mithcell just steered clear of eachother. Niether one especially liked each other, it would make sense that they might just avoid one another.

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 11:51 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."
> I guess
>the only reasoning I can
>come up with is that
>Mitchell may have gone out
>of his way not to
>talk to Keith.

...that's not possible...they were the only people staying on the ranch...they would've seen each other nonstop and propbably had all their meals together.

Keith might
>have gone home to his
>family directly ( he does
>have a business to run)


.....no, you're wrong on that one as well....al the survivors had to stay until the end of filming.....that is common knowledge amongst even the most casual fan..get with the program.


>or maybe he and Mithcell
>just steered clear of eachother.

...once again, not possible...yes, you can avoid each other to a degree, but Bitchell said that they haven't even talked since the show ended.



>Niether one especially liked each
>other, it would make sense
>that they might just avoid
>one another.


...actually, I don't think Keith had ANYTHING against Bithcell...he never said anything bad about him other than he looked weak.....when Bitchell got voted off he even reached out to pat him on the leg as he walked away.


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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-01, 00:01 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."
I was gonna replay with a smartass comment to the get with the proram remark LOL, but you were right... I forgot about the ranch they all had to stay at. In my defense though.... a casual observer of Survivor wouldn't know that... casual people just watch the show... they don't look into every nook and cranny as most people on the board do.
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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-01, 00:04 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: something Bitchell said during interviews...."

>
>
>
>
>...actually, I don't think Keith had
>ANYTHING against Bithcell...he never said
>anything bad about him other
>than he looked weak.....when Bitchell
>got voted off he even
>reached out to pat him
>on the leg as he
>walked away.

Didn't Jerri do sort of the same thing with Kel when he got the boot?

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FunkyD 5 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 03:08 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
I haVe been a passive reader for awhile, but now think it's time to poke my head out of the bushes and say "Hi!"

I have a different tack as to the situation in Ogakor.

Clearly, Jerri ruled the roost for the first 4 1/2 episodes, and all it got them was 3 IC losses, not to mention missing out on the chickens. All of this losing finally left Colby ready to jump ship in Ep 4.

Keith, who has been trying to be a team player, convinced Colby to ally with him and work against Jerri. That still left them a vote short. I am convinced that the plot to boot Mitchell was hatched along the way to TC in order to bring Tina on board. I doubt she would have voted against Jerri in Ep 4. This way, Tina felt that she could boot off an obviously weak member of the team and still not alienate Jerri. This enabled Keith to cut off Jerri's alliance at the knees.

The reason I believe Colby is firm against Jerri is that he is convinced without some team cohesiveness, they stand no chance against Kucha post-merger. Given the apparent complacency within the Kuchas, this may not be a correct assumption.

Thus, the current alignment, IMO, is Jerri/Amber vs. Keith/colby, with Tina wielding the crucial swing vote, which I believe will fall against Jerri.

With Jerri gone, I believe Amber can be carried over into a 4-member Ogakor alliance and potentially pick off Nick and possibly Mike (Ogakor being hungry and Mike eager to feed them).

After that, things will REALLY get interesting.

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rudysson 9 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 03:19 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
Colby must decide who he would rather go into the merger with Jerri or Keith. I think he votes off Keith, because he feels Jerri will not make friends in Kucha as well as Keith might.
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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 03:51 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
If you read MB's Survivor II Field Guide, you'll know that he is trying to tell a story. He constantly refers to different parts of his story as "Act I" or "Act II" etc. Well, Act I (Pre-Merge) will officially "end" as of this episode.

With the Kimmi/Chicken storyline being resolved last week, the only unresolved one left is the Jerri vs. Keith storyline. It makes the most logical sense that this episode will provide some sort of closure to this story, while also changing the dynamic of the story/game. (The upcoming merger)

The way I see it, there are two obvious outcomes:

A real villain emerges as Jerri gets booted: Jerri as a villain was just a red herring and the real villain of SII emerges. It could be Tina or sweet and innocent Amber.

(The to me, the more obvious

Keith gets booted: Keith is filling the sub-Protagonist, that is he is the sacrificial hero going to battle with the wicked witch, but will ultimately fail, leaving the real "hero" of S2 to emerge when the tribes come together.

*If* Jerri survives this episode, give her a free pass to the end of Act II. (The Final 3/4) Typically speaking in Act II things get worse for our heroes as the villains usually start to get there way. Look for Jerri to continue her manipulations when the tribes merge--but if Jerri is going down anytime in the near future, it *will* be this week.

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 03:51 PM (EST)
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16. "Why Jerri will be gone"
Colby holds the power. Keith and Tina hate and distrust Jerri too much to agree to vote with her against Colby. So, Colby is safe.

Ep 5 showed us Colby annoyed with Jerri and friendly with Keith. Colby understands the game and will vote in his own best interest. He needs an alliance after the merge, and his own tribe is a mess in this area. He and Jerri would both want to be the boss in the alliance, he disagrees with her voting decisions, and he can't deal with her bossiness anymore. So I don't see him re-allying with Jerri.

Keith will be loyal to Colby, I believe. He owes him, and likes him. Even though Keith is physically strong, he isn't as strong or young as Colby, plus I bet Colby has enough confidence and ego not to see Keith as a threat to him physically (he's a Texan, remember?). Keith's value is in his chef skills, and here is where Colby can ride on him into an alliance with Kuchas after the merge. Keith will be more valuable as a chef after the merge - more food, spices, his special pan - I can see him coming in and cooking up an awesome meal right off. The Kuchas are a new audience and will dig this! He has an in, and Coby can be protected by coming in as a package deal with Keith. Colby must know that he will be a target early on due to his strength and charm, so he needs to get into an alliance quick.

I don't see why Colby should feel threatened in any way by Amber or Tina, so why vote either of them off. Jerri is of no use to him anymore. Keith is.

As far as the "Jerri as villian" storyline, maybe that is played out. She has thoroughly irritated tribemembers and viewers alike. What more can she do? And can you imagine the cheer going up across America as the votes are read and "the tribe has spoken"? TIme to move on to learn more about other people on the show. Kucha alliances, Nick, Amber, etc - there is plenty that hasn't been developed. Jerri is over.

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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 04:22 PM (EST)
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17. "Jerri"
LAST EDITED ON 02-27-01 AT 04:30 PM (EST)


While the speculation is that things don't look good for Keith with the release of the cookbook, it's just becoming available through HIS SITE March 1st - but it's being sold at Barnes & Noble right now as we speak, as was pointed out earlier. The show being currently on the air hasn't kept it from being released and sold. So I think the cookbook means nothing as far as Keith's safety at TC.

Colby is, right now, the swing vote, and therefore in control of the tribe, like it or not. I wouldn't worry too much about him re-aligning with Jerri and Amber. I think right now he feels he has an ally in Keith and Tina should all three of them make the merger. True, Tina HAS backstabbed Kel and Mad Dog, but I think she was a bit more under Jerri's influence at the time. Now Jerri has over-played her hand with both Colby and Tina, and Keith never liked her to begin with. She isn't getting back in Tina and Colby's good graces so fast - she has worn out her welcome, and Amber alone can't save her.

****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 05:06 PM (EST)
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23. "Agree"
I don't know what the release date of Keith's cookbook means. I do know that Jerri is a sitting duck, and she knows it too. I can see her making an all-out play for Colby this week using all of her "attributes" from her days as a Hooters girl. I can't see Keith or Tina putting up with it, which might actually trigger the fight. But what will Colby do?

If Colby is really playing the game strategically, he'll vote Jerri out. He is too obviously the target with Keith gone. He might agree to vote Tina out, but he and Tina have voted together every time. And Amber is below the radar, even in a 5-member tribe. So Jerri it is ... unless Colby starts thinking below his shoulders instead of above them.

"I don't want to start complainin'/ but you know there's always pain/ in my heart." -- artist unknown(?)

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Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 04:28 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
An objective speculation based on some facts....

Mark Burnett is a twisted, evil manipulator (fact).

He has taken the "circumstance" that Ogakor lost 3 IC's
in a row to convince people that Ogakors are weak losers
who are going to lose in E6, pre-merger, and then go
into the merge and be picked off, one by one, by strong Kucha!!!!

Well great --- believe THAT and you have S2 all figured
out before the show is even half over!!!

I think it's a big serving of cow chips being offered
up by MB and I stopped believing it when Ogakor won
immunity in E5.

Dalton

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ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

02-27-01, 04:44 PM (EST)
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22. "Later, Jer."
Mwa ha ha. Now this thread....this thread, I like. Anyone remember the 6-4 theory? A woman is booted Wednesday. Remember the OTHER 6-4 theory? Ogakor goes to Tribal Council Wednesday. Remember Jerri? She's gone this Wednesday. Look at the previews. Jerri is seen crying, which I think means Ogakor loses Immunity this week to Kucha, thus, my overall theory of my final four will come to play....but...that's a topic for the future. Jerri has caused too much trouble in her tribe; ruffled one too many people's feathers. Keith, Tina, even Colby (last week when he was trying to build a stretcher and Jerri kept bothering him) . Also, there's a good theory on the opening credits on how Jerri has very little time, indicating a quick boot early on.
This is a no-brainer, people. She's voted out. Booted. Gone. That's IT.

Final Four: Alicia Calaway, Jeff Varner, Elisabeth Filarski,
Michael Skupin.

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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

02-27-01, 11:53 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Later, Jer."
I'm sorry, I'm pulling this way and that between Jerri and Keith. To me, I can see the simplicity of Colby sticking with Keith and Tina and voting out Jerri. I can even see some strategical (Good God I need a dictionary, My spelling sucks) anyway...I can see good strategy in tossing her. She's good at getting what she wants, and that can be a threat in a voting situation. However, I'm going to go with Keith.
#1 reason, even though his book has been out before, the fact that they are making a deal about a march first re-release is interesting. A publisher isn't going to let a PR Opp. pass them by.
#2 reason. His quote about making it his mission for her NOT to win seemed a little too obvious. It's a good "IN YOUR FACE" issue for up comming interviews.
#3 reason. Keith is strong competition for Colby... he may not vote against him, but he's not exaclty above voting off people he likes either.
#4 reason. Same with Tina. She's not above switching when necessary.
So to me, Keith is out... let's see if I keep my opinion tomorrow.lol
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 07:38 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
Well, first of all.. this thread is here based on the assumption that Ogakor loses IC - not saying they will, just what if they do. There is another thread for if Kucha loses.

Second, I don't necessarily see a Kucha free-for-all on the remaining Ogakors, even if it is 6/4. Here's the deal: In Kucha, Michael, at least,and most likely Liz/Rodger too, knows of the Jeff/Alicia alliance (he referred to their "pack" while talking to Kimmi). Liz/Rodger are an alliance, maybe Michael is part of that. L/R don't much like Alicia (their comments). Rodger's positive thing to say about Alicia was her cooking; otherwise they might be better off without her. Nick is the wild card - one of the questions is, does he know about the comments J/A had made about him(lazy, will be the first to go, etc.). Also, who told Kimmi that "some people" were voting for Jeff, and more importantly, was it a total lie, or actually true at the time it was said to her? And if so, how many "people" were involved?

Given this situation, a new alliance could form post-merger and oust a Kucha or two. For instance: as I posted before, say Colby/Keith come in as an alliance, and since Kuchas want to keep Keith around for his chef skills (better chances now with more food, spices, no Jerri to rile him up), the C/K alliance hooks up with, say L/R/M(?). I can see them getting along, and they sure would eat well. Alicia would be first on the hit list - everyone is tired of being "motivated" by her, they know she is scheming, and who needs her cooking skills with Keith around? And this breaks up the sneaky little J/A alliance. Of the remainder - Nick, Amber, Tina - at least one could be brought in to create the majority needed, and none appear (at this time) to be a threat to take over from the stronger members.

I can easily see Alicia being the first post-merger boot - Jeff if she wins IC. And maybe the other one being the second boot.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-01, 08:01 PM (EST)
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26. "Keith's cooking"
dangerkitty, sounds like you've been spending too much time reading Keith's bio. If he can't even cook rice (duh, guess I used too much water again), the tribe isn't going to eat well with him as cook. Not even Kucha's spices will cover up bad rice! And there aren't any motorcycles for him to use to cook the fish...
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"

02-27-01, 10:34 PM (EST)
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28. "Motorcycles?"
Whoa, I missed something! I confess I haven't read that much about Keith, I just don't put that much faith in the whole "Keith can't cook" thing from that early episode. It seems like that was a lot of the "Jerri vs. Keith" fodder. There has been more time now to figure it out, and remember how much they loved the fish? They should certainly have plenty of fish post merger - if Michael could catch fish without gear, he should do great with the Ogakor RC gear. And there may still be a chicken left. I know, I know, maybe it's a reach. But food must be such a huge focus out there, so it gives him something to hook in with.

Although, it could backfire too - if he is pushy and they feel he is horning in where they have been doing just fine, thank you.

One more little thing - when Rodger said about Alicia that she was pretty good at cooking, but maybe they'd be better off without her - could that have been a little hint that once they have a better cook, she really has no value?

I appreciate your comments, I've been diligently reading all you sleuths posts for a while now, but I'm just starting to post my own.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"

02-28-01, 11:09 AM (EST)
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36. "The Motorcycle Reference"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-01 AT 11:10 AM (EST)

The NY Times article making fun of Keith

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/21/living/21FAMI.html

said that at a motorcycle convention last year in South Dakota, Keith attracted attention to himself by wrapping fish in tin foil and then "cooking" it against the muffler of a Harley which was raced until the fish was sizzling.

Seriously, I presume that Keith really can cook, but he's not a short-order cook, which is what these survivors really need. Warmed olives are not likely to be in their diet in the Outback. IMHO, he'll do a better job than I would, but not so great that you'd keep him around just to cook. But stranger things have happened!

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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-01, 11:04 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
This theory would also fit in nicely with MB's comments that alliances didn't really come into play on S2. We've certainly seen the only real multi-person alliance collapse around Jerri's ears. Perhaps after the merge the Kucha "alliances" break up as well, or there will be a lot of cross-joining going on.

At least this one is keeping us guessing...we knew in S1 that after the merge the Pagongs were going to get, well, Pagonged because the Tagi alliance was too strong and the Pagongs (excepting Greg) didn't know how to play the game. We don't have that situation now.

I'm still vacillating between Keith and Jerri going. Yesterday morning I was fully convinced it was Keith, and within 24 hours my resolve has greatly weakened and I'm almost ready to jump on the Jerri train (hmmm...Jumping on the Jerri Train...CJ ought to like that one ;) ).

I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush

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Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-01, 10:11 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Time to speculate: Ogakor loses Immunity"
We definitely won't be seeing any group as solid as the Tagi alliance, that's for sure. The way things are shaping up, smaller and more unstable voting blocks will be more common.
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