LAST EDITED ON 10-28-09 AT 03:41 PM (EST)

Survivor 19: Samoa State of the Spoiling – Episode 7

Welcome to the SOTS where we try to one-up EPMB and his merry band of editors and accurately predict the results of Survivor before it airs... sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not -- but we'll get up from the canvas more often than Rocky just so we can continue to bring you the SOTS!

Rocky? You didn't think I was talking about the one who got blown away by Dreamz in Fiji, did ya? Ah, either Rocky will do - work with me here, folks.

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Last Week's Episode

First, let’s go to the East Coast Spoiler Thread to get a brief play-by-play of the action from last week.

Then we have michel's excellent summary neatly wrapping up last week's episode, complete with videos and photos.

Squid brought over James Barber’s Insider Transcript. This is where we first learn that the Galus might start to be splintering after seeing little of their tribal dynamics throughout the first five weeks of the show.

Jiffy’s blog is here. One nugget that he did mention in there that might have future implications on the game, as pointed out by DearAbby:

If we start with 20, as we did this year, it gives us plenty of wiggle room for quits or medical evacuation, but because we have 4 extra people we have to get rid of them at some point. Thus the “win or lose, you’re voting somebody out” scenario. I am happy to say that we have since figured out a better way to do double eliminations. So should we ever need to vote out two people in one episode it will not be a “win or lose both tribes going to tribal council” scenario.

We also have the RTVW interview with RussWell here as posted by Snidget – not a whole lot of spoilerish material, but it was refreshingly honest and also RussWell did say “watch for Kelly and Brett.” Hmmm.

There’s a good ongoing discussion of how analysis of editing patterns in past episodes could help us to figure out what’s going to happen in the episodes to come in VerucaSalt’s The Players, The Game, The Editing – Survivor Samoa. Always a great read, as usual.

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This Week's Episode

The title of this week’s episode is “Houdini Magic”, as brought to us by CTgirl in the Episode 7 Title and Press Release Thread.

Vidcaps! Get ‘em here while they’re still hot! There’s a lot of debate about which camp is it that RussHell and Laura are having their ‘secret alliance’ meeting at ... more on that below.

The press release, from the above CTgirl title thread:

Still reeling from the loss of their chief, Galu struggles to elect a new leader and the men hatch a plan to put a puppet regime in power as a pre-emptive strike against a blossoming female alliance on “Survivor: Samoa”.
During a visit to the opposing tribe, one castaway strikes a secret deal and manages to make some new friends.

Oooo, that’s a toughie. Who could it be? *glances over at vidcaps* ... I know! I know! Could it be Shambo who is named Galu’s new leader?

You can clearly see the leader’s pendant around Shambo’s neck here while she’s standing at full attention while the rest of the tribe behind her are looking very much like Police Academy’s newest recruits.

SquidProQuo chimes in about the “blossoming female alliance” part:
But the "blossoming female alliance" clue does pretty much confirm what I speculated over in the Insider Transcripts thread: Laura is mad that she's losing control over John/Dave/Erik and that they would have booted her ally Monica over Shambo, so the Yoga Alliance is splintered and a girls vs. boys power struggle ensues over a Galu. This could be just the "opening" that RussHell needs to make inroads at Galu and overcome the numbers. Jeesh, didn't any of these Galu folks watch what JT and Stephen did last year???!!

And could it be RussHell and Laura who are the ones making a secret deal? Why, yes... let’s take a look at this vidcap:

Again, we’ll get to the secret deal after we bring in the Reward Challenge discussion here.

Reward Challenge

It’s a game of “Concentration” and the challenge consists of a memory game where contestants must match various items hidden under a pyramid-shaped cover. Not much visual evidence of this challenge, but there is one picture in the vidcaps that is of particular interest in that it not only shows the pyramid-shaped covers, but also it shows who is wearing the leader’s pendant for the Galus: Shambo.

Note the set up of the challenge in the background behind the Galu tribe.

Now. Who wins reward and who goes where? From the vidcaps and the promos everywhere, it’s clear that it can only be one of two people that gets to go to the other camp: RussHell or Laura.

Here’s a good debate on whether it’s RussHell going to Galu or it’s Laura going to Foa Foa. This is what TV Guide had to say:

Galu struggles to choose a leader after Russell's medical departure and Evil Russell from Foa Foa visits Galu and strikes up an alliance with one tribe member.

Yes, TV Guide called him “Evil Russell”.

But is it correct? There are a number of dissenting opinions on this, particularly from TDT. Here’s OFG’s take on who goes where, in support of TDT’s projection:

TDT, as usual, has a sharp eye. From right to left we see Shambo, w/John, Dave, Erik in back, Monica, Kelly, Brett in front.

Talk about body language. John right there in back of Shambo to pull her puppet strings, his boys next to him, Dave with arm on shoulder. Monica, Kelly, Brett shoulder to shoulder, with a nice gap between Monica and Shambo.

They look a little sad for winners, and all but Dave are watching something to their right. Sure it could be that they lose and the they are watching ER come over and not pretending to welcome him, but ... given that Laura is missing from the shot, either she has just departed, and her girls looks sad ... or the evil promo maker cut off the caps to omit her.
But Brett is taller, so more likely he would be in the back row and Laura in front by the girls if Laura were there. Instead he is comforting Kelly. I'm guessing Shambo made an unpopular choice?

The clue does sound more like Russell going, but it works either way, and these writers are sneaky. It makes total sense for Mick to send ER, who would volunteer to give up food when no one else would.

OTOH, for Laura to disappear with ER at Galu would be risky. I agree he could seek her out, although Kelly is more his type, but still, going off to the far end of the beach with the stranger would be suspicious.

Whereas at Foa Foa, there are fewer bodies, and the tribe WANTS ER to work on Laura. They need someone to flip. So of course they will let him go off and work Houdini magic on her without much concern.

I see no reason to disagree with that, so that’s my official pick – Laura goes to Foa Foa, which means that Galu wins reward and Shambo perhaps decide to “get back” at Laura for her catty remarks throughout the show (“There’s FISH in the ocean! Gasp!”) so she sends Laura, much to the dismay of several others in the tribe.

We then see many promos of RussHell and Laura discussing their new alliance and promising to go to the Final 2.

Immunity Challenge

It’s called “Canoe Dueling” where the tribes paddle out to their own canoes and fish for puzzle pieces. Once they collect all of the pieces, they paddle back to shore and use the pieces to solve a puzzle.

Brett, Dave, Erik, Shambo and Kelly are competing for Galu, while Laura, John and Monica are sitting out.

Tribes race out to the canoes

Dueling canoes – tribes fish for puzzle pieces, and we see Kelly and Dave here for Galu

Natalie and Liz fish for Foa Foa

Dave, Kelly and Brett solve for Galu
Jaison, Mick and Liz working on the puzzle portion

It does not appear to be clear who is winning this challenge, so it’s time to figure out who might be the boot choices. Last week, it appeared to be clear that it was a choice between Liz and Natalie over in Foa Foa, with Liz getting more play, while over on Galu it was mostly focused on Monica as the boot choice.

Perhaps this will help – as Squid mentioned over in the press clues thread,
The boot story, at least if FF goes to TC, is also in the Insider Clips. RussHell spells out why he's keeping Natalie over Liz (Liz is too smart).
And we see this picture here inserted in the midst of a series of caps of challenges from the press images released that doesn’t seem to fit with the others. Yes, a shot of Liz in the middle between Mick and RussHell:

A random picture of Foa Foas in camp ... or were they revealing the boot in a subtle manner, while literally screaming out “OFG THEORY!!!!!111!!”?

Since we saw the boot stories being unfolded for both Liz and Monica last week when both tribes still believed they were going to be booting someone after RussWell’s medievac, the editors don’t need to explicitly spell it out again in the previews.

The circumstantial evidence is rapidly becoming clear: The boot choice is Elizabeth “Liz” Kim.

So... whaddya think? Agree or disagree with the Liz prediction? Hop on over to dabo's Time to Vote thread and tell us what you think.

In summary:
Shambo is elected chief of the Galus
Galu wins reward challenge
Laura is sent to Foa Foa
Galu wins immunity challenge
Liz gets the boot

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Future Spoilers

Future spoilers? I haven’t seen any, have you? Merge next week, Galus fall, Foo Foo get the last laugh. No sirree, nothing to see, move along.

TDT, in concert with a rumour from Wezzie at Sucks, said that the finale would be on December 20th, not on December 13th, and KoalaChick confirmed it.

Thanks for reading, y’all ... and enjoy the show!