LAST EDITED ON 09-17-09 AT 12:58 PM (EST)

Welcome to another season of Survivor, the 19th to be exact.

We are glad you stopped by the State of the Spoiling thread where we try to one-up EPMB and accurately predict the results of his show before it airs... sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will eternally try!

Kingfish best stated what a SOTS is:

“With SOTS we try and figure out who will be kicked off, who will win the immunity challenge, and who will win the reward challenge. We also try our hand at guessing who will be sent to Exile Island, if the hidden immunity idol will be found, and if so by whom. Might even take a stab at what kind of challenges the EPMB and his junior P in training, JP, devise for the surviving survivors on Survivor.
We use the information freely available and anything we can steal. Including VidCaps provided from Survivor Fever..., the survivor quotes and clues from CBS..., and just about anything else we can lay our hands, fins, claws and tentacles on...
We use the editing clues from VerucaSalt's thread. She scrutinizes EPMB's Survivor editing. She won't be reading these SOTS because she insulates herself from the opinions and spoilerings of others so that her conclusions are pure and uninfluenced. Yet somehow she and her helpers manage to nail the long term trends each Survivor season.

The collective intelligence in this Spoilers Forum sifts and sorts this data and comes up with opinions as to who's gonna do whut to who, and why, and how. These detectives all work hard, and selflessly share their opinions... These results are definitely a community product. Lurkers contribute by just being there.”

If you’re new to our site, please check out our Community Guidelines that are locatedhere.

They keep Blows running smoothly and remind us that it is nice to be civil!

We use any information freely available to us. Including VidCaps provided from Survivorfever (Thanks SF for all the hard work you do for our enjoyment), the survivor quotes and clues from CBS, TVGuide and just about anything else we can lay our hands on.

The last couple of seasons gave us no spoiling material. We had to go back to our roots of detective work. An excellent example is VerucaSalt’s The Players, The Game, The Editing - Survivor Samoa thread. This is a must read. Thank you, VerucaSalt for your insights and posting them on our board.

OK! Let’s get to it:

The 19th season began with castaways marooned in the Pacific islands named Samoa.

In May, Outfrontgirl posted the first thread to spoil the location. Great Job!
Survivor 19: Western Samoa.

There are several other valuable links found in this thread.

Check out the link to this season’s Survivor Maps.
Thanks Dan Bollinger of Survivor Maps, you have best maps. Also check out his satellite photos.

TDT’s (True Dork Times) link was brought to us by michel.

Goldenmikd4393 brought us the name of the first spoiled contestant: Ashley Trainer.

Georjanna brought us DanieuBleau's link to see our first pictures of Ashley at Survivor Skills.

Michel brought us the final number of contestant: 20,
the names of the tribes:
Yellow- Foa Foa –the trumpet shell
Purple – Galu – to be rough, to break heavily on the reef
and a picture of the devil himself:

sol posted pictures of the two teams with their buffs.in Chinadj’s Survivor 19: Western Samoathread.

Both are from Survivor Phoenix’s site.
Another great resource, Thanks Volcanic Glass for your hard work.

Michael brought us Survivor Samoa: The cast

Chinadjadded a nice chart of each team.

Ashley Trainer (22)
Hometown: Maple Grove, Minn.
Occupation: Spa Sales
Ashley resides in Maple Grove, Minn.
Her birth date is February 27th

Ben Browning (28)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: Bar Manager
Ben is single and currently resides in Los Angeles, Calif.
His birth date is August 28th.

Betsy Bolan (48)
Hometown: Campton, N.H.
Occupation: Police Officer
Betsy is happily married with two boys and two girls
Currently, Betsy resides in Campton, N.H.
Her birth date is March 20th.

Elizabeth Kim (33)
Hometown: New York, N.Y.
Occupation: Attorney
Currently, Elizabeth resides in New York City.
Her birth date is November 24th.

Jaison Robinson (28)
Hometown: Chicago, Ill.
Occupation: Law Student
Jaison resides in Chicago, Ill.
His birthday is September 25th.

Marisa Calihan (26)
Hometown: Cincinnati, Ohio
Occupation: Student
Marisa is single and currently resides in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Her birth date is July 26th.

Mick Trimming (33)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: Doctor
Currently, Mick resides in Los Angeles, Calif.
His birthday is May 10th.

Mike Borassi (62)
Hometown: Marina del Rey, Calif
Occupation: Personal Chef
Married without children, Mike resides in Marina del Rey, Calif.
His birthday is March 13.

Natalie White (26)
Hometown: Van Buren, Ark.
Occupation: Pharmaceutical Sales
Currently, Natalie is in a relationship and resides in Van Buren, Ark.
Her birth date is April 22nd.

Russell Hantz (36)
Hometown: Dayton, Texas
Occupation: Oil Company Owner
Russell is married with four children and currently resides in Dayton, Texas.
His birth date is October 10th.

Brett Clouser (23)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: T-Shirt Designer
Brett is single and currently resides in Los Angeles, Calif.
His birth date is December 27th.

Dave Ball (38)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif
Occupation: Fitness Instructor
Dave is single and currently resides in Los Angeles, Calif.
His birth date is August 13th.

Erik Cardona (28)
Hometown: Ontario, Calif
Occupation: Bartender
Currently, Erik resides in Los Angeles, Calif.
His birth date is April 13th.

John Fincher (25)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: Rocket Scientist
John resides in Santa Monica, Calif.
His birth date is August 16th.

Kelly Sharbaugh (25)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: Hairstylist
Kelly resides in both San Diego and West Hollywood Calif.
Her birthday is December 26th.

Laura Morett (39)
Hometown: Salem, Ore.
Occupation: Office Manager
Laura Morett is a Hawaiian mother, wife of 21 years and also a grandmother.
Currently, Laura resides in Salem, Ore.
Her birthday is July 30th.

Monica Padilla (25)
Hometown: San Diego, Calif.
Occupation: Law Student
Monica resides in San Diego, Calif.
Her birthday is July 14th.

Russell Swan (42)
Hometown: Glenside, Pa.
Occupation: Attorney
Russell is married with one daughter and currently resides in Glenside, Pa.
His birthday is February 17.

Shannon Waters (45)
Hometown: Renton, Wash.
Occupation: Sales
Shannon is a native of Renton, Wash., where she currently resides with her canine kids Bruce and Kali.
No birthday given.

Yasmin Giles (33)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: Hairstylist
Yasmin is single and currently resides in Los Angeles, Calif.
No birthday given.

Now that you have met the Survivors here’s a little more research for you.

Our own Georjanna has her Signs of Survival: Samoa up and running. It’s a great one this year. Thank you for all the hard work and time you put into this subject. And a big thanks for sharing it with us. You are a valuable resource for us.

Michel brought us a thread to discuss all of Jeff’s interviews: Probst talks about Samoa

There are several interviews and talk about the TV Guide Preview. We find out:

The 19th edition of the series begins with 20 castaways being stranded on the South Pacific island nation of Samoa. They are immediately divided into two tribes: Galu and Foa Foa. Next, without speaking to each other, the tribe members select a chief who will make all of their decisions. At tribal council, the first person is voted out of the game.

Now we are at the point of true spoiling:

The State Of The Spoiling is great this season.

We have talented new contributors, true old friends, great discussion threads, and a fresh new season before us.

But best of all ... we have spoiling material.

I would invite all lurkers to join us this season. Join the discussion. It always helps to have many voices to figure out who wins what, who loses, who changes tribes, who has alliances, and who will be booted. YOU just might see the missing piece of the puzzle. Even if you are wrong, that just helps narrow down the answer.

So we’re off!

Flowerpower posted Vidcaps, "Huge Secrets"

ARRIVAL & CHOOSING OF TRIBAL CHIEFS

Sol posted a statement from Jeff: From the start of the game, Survivor embraces this Samoan culture by incorporating an ancient tradition of electing an individual leader of the village. Without speaking, both tribes must immediately choose one member of their group to become their sole decision maker, their chief.

For Foa Foa –I believe the red shirted man is Mick.
For Galu – Russell S

Reward challenge immediately following:

The first part of the challenge 3 members are chosen to participate,
they are seen on their respective mats, as the rest of the tribes look on.

2 guys run to a distal point in the sea, retrieve a key on a ring

The strong ones are next to retrieve the bundled wood piles, to be used as steps up to the balance beam

The third person needs to take the key on the ring, place the ring around the rope and get it along the twisted course, wrapped the length of the beams

...once through, there most likely is another portion of the challenge, that may require some building from the bundled logs, puzzle solving etc.

Winner by fire! Smoke around the Foa Foa camp most likely indicates a reward win.

NO EXILE ISLAND BUT HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOL

Chinadj posted the interview by Jeff Probst
Probst says "There is no Exile Island this season, simply because, you know, we felt like, 'We've done that... enough. ...But there are still hidden individual immunity idols, although how they can actually be found is unclear. We have two hidden immunity idols, but they have their own set of clues, and you can only find the one that's for your tribe, they can only find the one that's for their tribe. The problem is, they're hidden at the other tribe's camp. So you have to get selected to go over there, and then you have to find it "
So how does one get selected, exactly? Probst doesn't say.

(Probst): "Now. Shut up and listen carefully to what I'm about to say. There is one, very small, secret loophole that exists, that can help you bypass tribal council. All you do....

Is this part of the "selection" scenario? If the other tribe picks you to come over, you don't have to go to your own tribe's tribal council? If so, the logical place to put this twist would be after the IC. So maybe it will come into play in Ep1, after all.

REVEAL OF IMMUNITY IDOL

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE

Michel posted the First Boot Speculation

From the dynamics shown in previews, it seems that Foa Foa is the tribe going to Tribal Council. Who is safe?
We know Russell H. must stay a while to earn his reputation of the "biggest villain ever." He does get off to a fast start as seen in this picture

CBS gives us the two targeted players, trying to stop Russell

A look at Russell's body language in the following vidcaps is a big hint on how he feels about each woman

PepeLPew states that the OFG Theoryalso fits as Marisa is all over the previews.

Michel explains the OFG Theory:
The OFG Theory was named for OutFrontGirl who first noticed that the promos would more or less subtly feature the next evicted player and that the CBS clues usually contain the boot story. It has helped us for many, many seasons.
I noticed in the first promos, when the cast was presented that Marisa appeared in many shots. As Pepe pointed out, the latest promos confirmed that. In opposition, Betsy has only been seen in the latest promo. That could be enough to make her the OFG candidate but more likely the misdirection boot.
Players like Mike, Liz and Shannon who have barely been seen shouldn't be voted out in this episode according to the OFG Theory.

Outfrontgirl continued the explanation:

OFG Theory has been refined and mutated a lot since it began with Krautboy picking up on something I noticed back in Survivor Africa. The editing has changed a lot since then too.
For what little it matters, the original theory was in the negative. If someone is not given a good shot in the promos (any promo, not just the one post show), then they are safe.
The thinking was simply that promos are more than misdirection, which is how we were treating them. They are also ads for the general viewer that should give the viewers some exposure to the person before the boot episode.
A subsequent point I noted way back then was that the bootee may be shown prominently but not always in danger. Some took that as "look for the person who is shown being safe" - but that doesn't work consistently. Depends on whether the editors want to highlight the person't vulnerability or disguise it that week.
In general, the boot story will be hinted at in the promos, but not always the first episode. However it seems like they want to start off with a big story this time -- Russell.
Marisa did appear in the very first promos questioning Russell. Normally the first promos feature people who will be somewhat important to the game, and a character or two who don't have long for the game and need some exposure.

SOTS Speculations

THE TRIBES:

THE TRIBAL CHIEFS:

For Foa Foa – mick & I believe the red shirted man is Mick.

For Galu – Russell S

REWARD CHALLENGE: Foa Foa

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: Galu

1st SURVIVOR BOOTED:

Betsy is in danger but just a misdirection

MARISA CALIHAN

FUTURE SPOILINGS:

Outfrontgirl posted Medical evacuation tied to weather

Probst told a news service: "Samoa is very beautiful - and it kicked the a.s.s. of two people to the point where they had to be evacuated ... "It was hot, and then it rained. And it rained for about a week. They didn't have fire. And they couldn't get water. It was hard. It was definitely hard."

Outfrontgirl posted this chart:

No significant rain from June 11th to 19th, as measured at Faleolo Airport somewhat to the northwest, but according to Weather Underground stats it rained 9.8 inches or almost TEN inches on June 20th, Day TEN according to TDT.

On the 27th it stopped and there was no significant precipitation after that (less than 1/10 of an inch per day). Nor was there significant rain prior to the big dump.

I think we should expect the trouble to start in Ep 4. Allow the situation to build, perhaps, to Ep 5, or Day 16.

Michel pointed out that Jeff used 5 or 6 episodes as his measure of how long some players can last.

There is still no consensus on which two Survivors it will be.

Esteestarted A.S.S. #2 (20) casting speculation. Check it out if you want to know who might be playing next season.

Feel free to discuss any of the items above, add to them or take them home with you.
Amaze your co-workers, family and friends with your knowledge of:

Survivor 19: Samoa

Don't forget to vote in Dabo's SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time To Vote thread located in the Spoilers Forum.
Post your vote and let us know who you think will be the first to be
voted out.
If you’re on line during Survivor check out the East Coast Update Thread, also in the Spoilers Forum.
All talk of the broadcasted show is kept in this thread.

Sign up for a Survivor Summary here.

Want to try your hand at writing a SOTS? Sign up here.

You can check out what CBS has to offer here.
They always have secret scenes and Ponderosa clips.

And if you still want more please check out the Survivor Forums we have at RTVW.

The Survivor Fanatic Forum has no spoiling in it.
Just postings for those who love the show, the contestants, Jeff, EPMB, or anything Survivor.

Now if you are not happy with the show or a castaway, check out the Survivor Basher Forum.
Bash and snark all you want, but remember we’re PG 13.
If there is a roll-playing thread this season it will be found here.

The Survivor Spoilers Forum is exclusively for the discussion of possible Survivor spoilers and their speculation.
The SOTS is located here along with VerucaSalt’s, The Players, The Game, The Editing thread, and any video or still shot for the coming week.

The Survivor Game Forum has several games for your enjoyment.

PTTE: The longest running RTVW game! kircon’s S19 Samoa Picks To The End (PTTE)
dreamerbeliever’s Pick the Booty (PTB)
MJewel’s Luck Of the Draw (LOD)
tribephyl’s new game (tribe's Survivor Tribe Phantasy)

We are still waiting for Scarlett O Hara’s Office Pool ((OP)

And if you’ve ever wanted to host a game, now is your chance.
tribephyl’s Anti-Vote Game (AVG), and for all losers,LoserLodge (LL)is searching for a new host.
Contact tribephyl if you might be interested.

Thank you, Sir Tribephyl for the wonderful SOTS Logo. Your work is legend.

If you are interested in writing and posting a SOTS, sign up here.
There's NO prerequisite for doing a SOTS so if you’re new and want to take a stab at summarizing the weekly spoiling info and present it to our hungry speculators, now's your chance. Or if SOTS is old-hat to you, we're looking for your continued participation and alumnal insights.

Now go enter some games, post in one of the forums, and enjoy the show.

See you back here next week!
Michael will be posting the next SOTS for the September 24th show.

PTTE for Fun!