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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 10:56 AM (EST) "Jury Vote Assessments" Speculation time. In his Tocantins blog this week Probst included an assessment of each of the final four's chances. Interesting that he did that, not certain if it reveals anything about what's coming. Read it here for yourself (or check the blog thread for more): http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatch/2009/05/jeff-probst-b-2.html J.T. – If he gets to the final two he probably wins...unless he goes up against... TAJ – This would be quite a show down. Two of the most well liked people in the game. STEPHEN – Best bet is to go up against Erinn, who he could probably beat. ERINN – A long shot due to her betrayal – hard for her to get votes from the former Timbira members on the jury. Might be smart to take her all the way to the end. All four had strong strategies to get themselves to the final four. Erinn positioned herself to piggyback and save herself once it became obvious she was not welcome in the dominant Timbira alliance. JT has been fun and easygoing but willing to blindside anyone if it would improve his chances. Stephen has been the mastermind of the Jalapao Three who managed to take them from underdogs to topdogs while obliterating the Timbira. Taj formed an early and creative cross-tribal alliance, partnered wisely with Stephen and was instrumental in playing the Timbira dynamics to break the Timbira, has remained well liked throughout. The question I have (aside from whether Jeff's blog entry may indicate anything) is: How will the jurists look at the finalists? My assessments -- Brendan: Has nothing for or against any of the remaining players, will probably vote for whoever makes the best case for himself or herself at Final Tribal. He is very smart himself, though, so he may favor Stephen or Taj. May favor Erinn over JT. Tyson: A smug jerk, though some of that may have been playacting. He's likely to be in JT's corner with Stephen as an alternate. May favor Erinn over Taj. Sierra: Had a very bad time in the game and will lean towards those who were nicest to her. Taj then Stephen then JT or Erinn. Debbie: In the end she's a principal and views the kids as good or bad. This works in favor of JT and Taj, Stephen is okay, Erinn doesn't have a chance. Ben: The delusional warrior hypocrite will be unyielding, he wins too if one of his warriors prevails, JT is his favorite, Stephen the alternate, Erinn and Taj can only get his vote if they are in the final two together, in which case who knows. (potential jurists) Erinn: Unpredictable, may see herself as the swing vote. Will probably favor Taj over Stephen, Stephen over JT. JT: Stephen all the way, they were the mastermind team. Taj is married to Eddie and doesn't really need the money, though she likely gets his vote over Erinn. Stephen: Hard to tell if it is between JT and Taj. Erinn was a useful vote during the game, nothing else. Taj: Buddy Stephen has her vote unless he puts a knife in her back. Has nothing against Erinn but likes JT more and besides he's Jalapao.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jury Vote Assessments SquidProQuo 05-15-09 1    RE: Jury Vote Assessments Brownroach 05-15-09 2        RE: Jury Vote Assessments SquidProQuo 05-15-09 3            RE: Jury Vote Assessments dabo 05-15-09 4            RE: Jury Vote Assessments Brownroach 05-15-09 5                RE: Jury Vote Assessments SquidProQuo 05-15-09 6                    RE: Jury Vote Assessments dabo 05-15-09 7  RE: Jury Vote Assessments Loree 05-15-09 8  RE: Jury Vote Assessments SquidProQuo 05-15-09 9    RE: Jury Vote Assessments PepeLePew13 05-15-09 10        RE: Jury Vote Assessments SquidProQuo 05-16-09 11  RE: Jury Vote Assessments SquidProQuo 05-16-09 12    RE: Jury Vote Assessments Outfrontgirl 05-16-09 13        RE: Jury Vote Assessments Brownroach 05-18-09 15            RE: Jury Vote Assessments Outfrontgirl 05-18-09 16  RE: Jury Vote Assessments Outfrontgirl 05-16-09 14

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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-15-09, 11:47 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" Here are the clues for this week from the CBS press release: LOYALTIES AND STRONG ALLIANCES ARE QUESTIONED WHEN THE FINAL FOUR FACE THE FACT THAT ONLY ONE WILL BE AWARDED THE MILLION DOLLAR PRIZE AND THE TITLE OF SOLE SURVIVOR, ON A SPECIAL TWO-HOUR SEASON FINALE, FOLLOWED BY A ONE-HOUR LIVE REUNION SHOW OF "SURVIVOR TOCANTINS -- THE BRAZILIAN HIGHLANDS," SUNDAY, MAY 17 "I Trust You But I Trust Me More" - After one shocking vote, a seed of doubt is planted by a carefully constructed lie that, after the second vote, leaves the final two turning on each other at the final Tribal Council, on a special two-hour season finale followed by a one-hour live reunion show of SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS - THE BRAZILIAN HIGHLANDS, Sunday, May 17 (8:00-11:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 11:55 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" Squid, instead of putting this here can you start a new thread for the Episode Title and put the clues in there too? Thanks. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-15-09, 11:57 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" Sorry, I'm new -- not sure how to start a new thread.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 12:01 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" LAST EDITED ON 05-15-09 AT 12:07 PM (EST) In this forum, above the threads: Logout Help Search Post Mark User Click on post link, compose new thread with appropriate title for Subject.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 12:09 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" LAST EDITED ON 05-15-09 AT 12:14 PM (EST) Do what dabo said - click on the Post icon above the forum, and put this in the Subject: S18 Finale Title - "I Trust You But I Trust Me More" Then copy and paste your post above into the message box. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-15-09, 12:26 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" Thanks for walking me through. So is there a way to delete my post from this thread now?   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 12:36 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" You can't delete it. You could edit it to remove/change the content, there's really no reason for doing that though, it's okay.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 02:02 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" Brendan really wanted JT to win. Partly because I assume Brendan thought JT could use the money. For that reason JT would probably get Brendan's vote if he makes the F2. Of the 4 left in the game JT really disliked Sierra and was not nice to her. If Sierra knows this she probably would not vote for JT. Both Taj and Errin refused to vote Sierra out because they had promised her. If one of them makes the final I think they will be rewarded with Sierra's vote.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-15-09, 02:04 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" There is an interesting Insider clip where Erinn talks about being the last Timbira standing, and how JT has been "doing all her dirty work" and she's been the one feeding the Jal3 all the ideas. She says she can't wait to get to the F2 so her role won't be hidden anymore and she can make her case to the jury. At first I thought some of Coach's delusional thinking must have rubbed off on Erinn! But then I remembered how it did appear that Erinn had the idea first to get rid of Tyson, and it made me wonder if she's been playing a bigger strategic role than what we've been shown? At the very least, I came away thinking that Erinn might be able to piece together a better case for the jury than what meets the eye. (I still don't think any of the old Timbira will vote for her, though, because they all hate her.) JT clearly has been positioned as the leader in all the players' eyes....Stephen or Erinn (or Taj) will really have to sell their case to the jury if they're against him.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-15-09, 02:19 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" What if there is a correlation between what you said here about the Insider clip and the clue in your thread you just posted? "I Trust You But I Trust Me More" - After one shocking vote, a seed of doubt is planted by a carefully constructed lie that, after the second vote, leaves the final two turning on each other at the final Tribal Council. What if JT votes out Stephen at F3 (perhaps based on a lie from Erinn) and takes Erinn with him, then she uses the lie to plant some doubt in the minds of the jury about JT which then leads to a war of words between the two finalists taking turns sticking a knife into each other's backs? Stinky Musings <--- blog's been updated!   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-16-09, 03:59 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" Pepe, that would be awesome....and I do find it very interesting that Erinn and JT are walking alone together in the promo. JT is a sly/smooth talking devil, so I wouldn't put anything past him. I'm just hoping *something* happens to shake things up vs. a boring, predictible F2 of JT/S.   Top

SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 05-16-09, 04:08 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" I assumed JT would be a shoo-in vote from Coach, but there's a new interview with Coach up on CBS, and they ask him who wants to win. He says Tyson is the most deserving, but if he had to pick from the 4 remaining players, he'd go with Stephen. He says that JT is "silky, sultry southern boy who stabs you in the back"....whereas Stephen is more open about being sneaky. Very interesting -- perhaps JT's Coach vote might have been transparent, even to Coach! Also, perhaps Coach would prefer a more cerebral player like S, esp. since he considers himself a brainiac. On the other hand, Coach is saying this after having the benefit of watching most of the season on TV. When he was in Brazil, he sure had a mancrush on JT.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-16-09, 05:01 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" yep, Squid, that's the problem. Sometimes jury comments near showtime are their way of retrofitting a vote they wish they'd done differently now they've seen it on TV. No way to know. I remember in Thailand, I think it was Ken who had been very open about despising either Clay or Brian (forget which), such that we all thought he had never voted for that guy, when in fact he had. (And let's not forget Christy!)   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-18-09, 04:59 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" I think what happened with Thailand's Ken was that he had seemed very okay with Brian in all his post-show interviews, even semi-defending Brian (or at least not condemning him) about the porno thing. So most of us figured Ken must have voted for Brian at the end. Instead it turned out that in the jury questioning Ken really laid into Brian about something (I can't remember what specifically) and then voted for Clay. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-18-09, 07:25 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" thanks! yes, that was it. And now, the day after, it turns out that Coach voted for JT but gave out post-game interviews saying he preferred Stephen. As a lot of people thought. The Tyson and Debbie interviews did turn out to be good indicators that Stephen wouldn't be getting their votes.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-16-09, 05:20 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Jury Vote Assessments" I've given up on calling how these jurors vote. There's always someone who leaves me gasping WTF and wanting to throw a wine bottle at the TV (except I love my TV). Assuming for the sake of this post that it's Stephen and JT, who to me fit the "great winner" quote by Probst: What I'm wondering is what approach these guys will take, whether they will own their deviousness and try to argue best sneaky player, or whether they'll try to argue that they really loved so and so, and wanted to honor their promises. Or perhaps argue that they DID keep their promises. If Stephen is in it, he can take the Amanda route, and try to do it better, by arguing that he did make the moves along with JT. The "dropping my mask" strategy, which is the one Erinn hopes to go with per her Insider clip. Or he could work on exposing JT for the sneaky bastige playing good ol boy, and disillusion the jury members who think JT is so awesome. Whatever he does, if he's in the F2, Stephen will have planned what to say, and thought about how areas where he can shoot himself in the foot, and he will be articulate, I'm pretty sure. He knows he has an uphill battle. JT mumbles. I swear I need subtitles for him because he doesn't enunciate. If he tries to argue how he is the perfect all around player, good in challenges, good leader, survived the target on his back, that may or may not be enough. Like Rob Mariano, he is surely going to get hit with the "you looked right in my eyes and gave me your word" from a few jurors. Tyson might respect that more than Brendan, who isn't much good at lying. Tyson respects physical competition, as an athlete. Brendan is fit, but I think he could respect Stephen's mental game. I do think Debbie will vote JT, Southern solidarity. Coach, I think he will not be that happy with JT for not being honest and telling him it was his time to go. It depends I think on whether he figures out that even though Stephen voted against the Coach, JT was in on it and tried to angle for Coach's vote. Coach wouldn't like that kind of duplicity. As I don't know whether Coach figures it out before he sees the show on TV, I dunno. As for Taj and Erinn, without knowing their fate, I can't begin to call it.   Top

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