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"Post-Merge Discussion"
byoffer 15947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-09, 01:20 PM (EST)
 
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"Post-Merge Discussion" |
From the previews we know that the merge happens next week. That means Timbira goes in with a 6-4 advantage, which is huge.
Timbira
Coach, Brendan, Tyson, Erinn, Debbie, Sierra Jalapao
JT, Joe, Taj, Stephen But this season there are some other interesting dynamics:
Major Inter-Tribe Hidden Alliance (MITHA)
Taj, Stephen, Brendan, Sierra
Is JT part of this now from Taj and Stephen?? Small Inter-Tribe Hidden Alliance (SITHA)
Erinn, Joe Will MITHA be defensive or offensive in their actions? Defensive: Will Brendan and Sierra just try to protect Taj and Stephen from becoming early targets of Timbira? Will they be able to move the target over to Joe or JT?
Offensive: Or will MITHA act quickly to take out the Timbira power players (Coach, Tyson)? If they are smart they will target Coach right away. He isn't a challenge threat, but he is annoying and IMO dangerous as a leader (he would seem to have Debbie and Tyson, at least, following him). If MITHA doesn't act quickly (ie they let Joe and JT get picked off first) then they risk getting to 4-4. If they can reduce Coach, Tyson, Debbie and Erinn right away then they should be able to keep numbers to the end. I do not think SITHA will be large enough nor strong enough to have a significant bearing on the game, other than maybe Joe being able to get Erinn to flip over to Jalapao since she probably feels like an outsider at Tibira. So who goes next? Joe: I figure the obvious next target is Joe. He is on the weaker tribe (Jalapao) and is the only one that doesn't have anyone from MITHA protecting him. Plus, his injury may get worse and they give him a mercy boot.
Erinn: Coach might decide that at 6-4 he can throw one away. He has always indicated he doesn't like Erinn, and he may worry that she is one who will flip.
JT: He is certainly the biggest challenge threat, and should get the biggest target from Timbira because of that. Will Stephen risk his own neck to protect JT? Will Taj?
Tyson: is another challenge threat. Will MITHA target him instead of Coach?
Debbie: I am not sure why she would be a target. She is not a challenge threat, and is part of Coach's Timbira core. So what do you think???  
It's Bachelor Love, which is like Monopoly Money in that it has no actual value outside the game. - frodis
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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-09, 01:58 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
I think that the instant I start thinking, I fall out of line with Benji.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-09, 02:43 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-03-09 AT 02:46 PM (EST)Thanks, byoffer. Very nice layout of the dynamics.
ETA, I had that reply window up for awhile and only saw BR's reply when I submitted. Agreed, BR. JT may also get immunity the first time, or he could get Taj to give him the idol. well, I think Joe has to go next from the perspective that even in a season with almost no spoilers, TDT has had him on the radar for weeks as one player who was rumored to go prematurely. Now he's made merge. He has an infection. The rest are all slotted for jury at least. It has to be Joe.
It sounds like Brendan is weighing his options in the previews. Stay Timbira or go with MITHA. A Joe boot leaves it all open. In fact, Joe is the only boot that allows everyone to not play their hand this week. The question is, will a medivac replace the boot? There are no extra players in a cast of 16, so I would think so. Which would mean that Erinn doesn't flip this week.
I am worried that Coach will get the upper hand, very worried.
TDT has a spoiler posted that may or may not be right, that Debbie makes it 37 days and family visit. I think that would be F4. There is another rumor that Coach is out at F5. Again, maybe, maybe not.
But what would make that happen? If Coach's alliance gets that far, would that mean his alliance eats itself at that point or that another alliance picks his off and Debbie is last? Could be either. Jeff says we'll love the winner, yeah, heard that before, supposedly best winner in ages. But that will NOT be, I hope: Coach, Debbie, Sierra, Taj, Erinn. It will not be a woman at all. The women have had poor edits as players, with Taj having the best but making a dumb move or two. Then, I like Stephen quite a lot, and wish him well, but I don't think he has the big personality that would cause Jeff to say that. For me that leaves Brendan, Tyson, JT as the stars of this show. All three are currently targets. Well, a great winner should be a target so as to make victory difficult to achieve. I don't think Tyson will win, but I love him as a character. Brendan is the smartest and he is personable, and athletic.
JT could be the new Colby, maybe? 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-09, 03:34 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
Hiya OFG!!! Love everyone's spec in here! And I have to say, that you are right, OFG, that I agree, a good winner has to have the odds stacked against them, and what does JT sum up in this last preview....We're going in this 4 on 6. That's not good odds. Clearly, as a member of the tribe with the least numbers, JT is indeed an underdog. JT seems to be a man of far more substance than he lets on, and his "good ole country boy" first impression may bode well for him. I do think it will be someone that did give off a strong first impression...either for the good or for the bad.I can not see how Brendan will ever make it to the end game, not only is he a target for the other tribe, but he's one on his own tribe as well. As I have stated, I do see how the weaker females, like Debbie, Sierra, and Erinn can make it to the end game, they are non-threats, people that can be removed at any time in the game....and wouldn't Jiffy love it if Sierra were the last one standing in a game where she appeared to her tribemates as the weakest link...
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-09, 03:53 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
hi flopo!>>>wouldn't Jiffy love it if Sierra were the last one standing in a game where she appeared to her tribemates as the weakest link... yes ... and she could be F2 ...
but with her game, as passive as it is, I don't see her as being the greatest winner in a long time. I do think that for Jeff a great winner will play an aggressive game. He said the end is Shakespearean ... well, I majored in the Bard, but who knows what he means. Othello, Hamlet, Macbeth, Taming of the Shrew, Tempest, Richard III, um, a lot of plays there. In the tragedies, they usually end with a high body count. Who knows, but I imagine he means highly dramatic. I agree about JT. I think the winner will have had a first confessional. Who is that again? Brendan, JT, Stephen, Coach, Tyson, Erinn, Taj, Sierra? Oh well, that is at this point going to be all F9, with Debbie the only one left out. 
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-09, 09:10 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
*waves at OFG*
>but with her game, as passive
>as it is, I don't
>see her as being the
>greatest winner in a long time.
I don't think anyone thought of Bob as a potential winner after episode 6 last season - and he was a popular winner. There's still plenty of time for things to happen and for certain people to make a move in the game that makes them look like the good guy -- and who's to say that the winner has to be the one making all the moves to appear as a popular winner? The F2 goat could be a villainous type who makes anyone besides him/her look popular.
>I think the winner will have
>had a first confessional.
>Who is that again?
>Brendan, JT, Stephen, Coach, Tyson,
>Erinn, Taj, Sierra? Oh
>well, that is at this
>point going to be all
>F9, with Debbie the only
>one left out. Food for thought -- as I pointed out in the editing thread, Erinn was one of only two people who received a confessional in both the original episode and the recap episode when all of the Survivors were on the truck rolling into Tocantins while Jiffy was doing his season-opening spiel ... and both times, she had the first confessional. Significant, maybe?
Stinky Musings <--- blog's been updated!
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-09, 03:00 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
Great thread, byoffer, thanks for posting!The preview kind of summed it up nicely...if Timbira sticks together they can proceed to pick off the Jalopao's one by one...we know that this is HIGHLY unlikely to happen. Clearly, the easiest answer is to pick off the easiest male who could be a challenge threat, which would be Joe. He's also ailing with his infected knee, so there is a red flag for a mercy boot, or even a medivac. We know that JT and Taj are around at LEAST until F8. So they are safe at least at F10, F9. Jiffy's blog gives away that Coach is the "dragon slayer" and he is after Brendan. Hmmmm....no doubt with his co-coaches, Tyson and Debbie. Would JT go along with that plan, would Erinn? I think the weak females will be left standing for a while, but remember that Coach's ultimate plan was to have the strongest at the end, and we know he doesn't consider the females to be among the strong end game players...I think he could possibly target Erinn sooner, rather than later, and when he does, perhaps it will backfire on him, leading to his demise. When you think about it, Taj is the one that has betrayed Brendan and Sierra, by disclosing the 4-way alliance to JT...and we know that JT is playing to win, I think this disclosure could lead to the demise of Brendan as well as Taj. Who will she be aligned with to the end? Her Jalapao roots or to Brendan? It's going to be fun to see how it unfolds, there are sure alot of possibilities!
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-09, 02:44 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-09 AT 02:57 AM (EST)ADKer
I have to differ with you although I realize that a lot of us were taught this ... >>>A Shakespearean tragedy involves the downfall of a character as a result of a character flaw that causes the character to bring ruin upon him/herself. Aristotle's theory of tragedy involved a fatal event (not a character flaw).. However, Aristotle's work on tragedy was not known in the Renaissance, and was not translated into English until the 18th century. Shakespeare never read Aristotle ... nor was he familiar with Greek tragedy. This is an interesting article on the definition of Shakespearean tragedy, which is not so easy to define:
http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521674928&ss=exc In any case, who knows what Jiffy means, he didn't even say tragedy; he said Shakespearean, I think. Which could mean a lot of things. Georjanna, I like your idea that Tyson is Puckish. A mischievous sprite.
Speaking of Midsummer's Night's Dream, we don't have a man with the head of an ass, but we do have an Ass who believes he's a man ...
my first image of a Shakespearean moment was of Tyson playing Iago to Coach's ego, playing him like a fiddle.
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ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-04-09, 07:49 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
I absolutely cannot imagine why you would bring up Aristotle, other than to show that you are more erudite than me, which I readily concede, but whatever ... I hope you don't mind if I post and try to contribute a little to the discussion. I don't believe that Jeff pretends to be any more of a classics scholar than me. Since we are speculating - I believe that Jeff would use the term Shakespearean in the most accessible sense - that there is some drama in which someone causes their own downfall as a consequence of their own choices. But of course you are correct Outfrontgirl, Jeff could mean anything by use of the term Shakespearean.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-04-09, 10:55 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
Yeah, OFG, I don't see what Aristotle has to do with what Shakespearean tragedy is either. Your own explanation says that Aristotle's tragedy is about fatal event and then makes it clear that Shakespeare never read Aristotle. Yeah, he wasn't arguing that, OFG.Whatever the scholars say (my BA doesn't qualify me for that title), all you have to do is read the plays (as I have) and you can see the pattern that a self flaw is the downfall of many of main characters of Shakespeare's plays. And it is a common idea about Shakespeare and one that Jeff could have been referring to. Who has a fatal flaw? Clearly, Coach. Which does make me think he makes it to the end. HOWEVER, and this a big however, we usually like the character despite their fatal flaw. And NO ONE seems to like Coach right now. He's being portrayed as a big tool. So if they start rehabilitating him some, I think that could point to him being the one who is involved in the Shakespearean ending.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-09, 03:44 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
OK, sorry guys ...
I brought up Aristotle not to sound erudite - I haven't even read the Poetics other than as it relates to Shakespeare. The fatal flaw theory is a modern misinterpretation of one of Aristotle's elements of Greek tragedy -- which has been misapplied to Shakespeare by later critics. This wikipedia article is quite good:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HamartiaI reacted badly to the fatal flaw theory because leading Shakespeareans don't subscribe to it; it's outdated/discredited, yet it still floats around. You're right, I do have a different perspective, because I took my MA at Berkeley in Shakespeare (and Joyce), and was blessed to study under some of the most brilliant Shakespearians in the world, who showed me a more complex Shakespeare. As to what JEFF thinks about Shakespeare, you are right, could be anything, including the tragic flaw. btw, even though a lot of us think of the Renaissance as the moment when the individual emerged, in Shakespeare's great tragedies there is an overriding concern with the "state of the state"- which individual actions have thrown out of balance. Balance must be restored at the end, to the state, to society. Individual fates and psychology were not that important until the time of Romanticism and after. In Survivor terms - the state of the tribe is what matters, and individuals who take it out of balance must be eliminated ... Shakespeare's world was pre-merge, not post. My initial thought on what Jeff means is something along the lines of high drama, perhaps some "fancy" speeches, perhaps a lot of "bodies" left in the wake of someone's plot. Again, sorry about the disagreement and getting overly academic. The wikipedia article is worth reading though, for students of drama. It explains how the original concept in Greek tragedy was of a fatal error or mistake that was NOT the fault of the person - not a character flaw, more like taking a wrong direction at a crossroads and paying the price.
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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-06-09, 08:43 AM (EST)
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26. "Random thought." |
Benji as Falstaff?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-09, 07:25 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
Taj is the one that has betrayed Brendan and Sierra, by disclosing the 4-way alliance to JT......crawls under the table...my bad...you are absolutely right, she did not disclose the 4 way alliance, but I felt by letting JT in on the idol at their camp, she somehow jeopardized the pledge to Brendan and Sierra...as it was not part of their plan to divulge the info to others....albeit, he did really stumble onto it all by himself, which, I suppose is just circumstances...
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-09, 08:10 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
I agree FloPo ... she did go against the spirit of the alliance, which was 4 people, 2 idols to protect the group.The thing is, I don't think she had another move to make. JT didn't like going against Joe and Sydney. Having a post-merge alliance doesn't do a person any good if they don't make the merge, so I would hope Brendan/Sierra would understand, she had to use her idol leverage pre-merge just as they may have if Timbira had the losses. *OK, so logical people would understand, Survivor players are always a crapshoot. Brendan seems reasonable though.*
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-09, 06:34 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
The thing is, I don't think she had another move to make.No doubt about it, I definately get why she wanted to share the news of her idol with JT...she did feel that it was either her or Sydney, and she had to make the play to make certain she did at least make it to the merge....Brendan will definately get it!
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Rahaim 28 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-04-09, 02:35 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
If you slow down the opening credits , you will see 7 survivors. Looks like Taj, seirra, Debbie, Errin, Brandon, Jt and I think Stephen. Not sure. Hsa anyone else noticed this in the opening credits?
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Rahaim 28 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-04-09, 09:56 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Post-Merge Discussion" |
towards the end. 2 weeks ago there were 8 survivors,
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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Though, I'm sure Tyson would know what to do with those too. . . he's VERY creative. Hmmm, maybe we need to keep those two apart! ;)
