|
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
|
"Episode 6....put your analysis here"
Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 04:33 AM (EST)
 
  |
|
"Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
Ok, gang it's time to get started. I'm starting this thread for those of us who want to try and figure out who gets BOOTED, not who gets hurt(unless you can provide reasonable analysis, that this is the same person). Side note to the newbies: I believe that the majority of regulars are glad that you have joined us, BUT please read Siebured's "Bacardi and Coke" post. If you have legitimate analysis with sound reasoning and/or resources to back you up, by all means post away, otherwise, I fear that you're in for a flaming very soon. Enough of that...... I realize that there is very little to go on this week, besides rumors, but as AK has pointed out in the past alot of these "rumors" have come to fruition. So, that being said, let's get this rolling. I feel that it's going to be easier to concentrate on who's safe rather than who's in danger this week, so I'm gonna go with that. Basis of analysis: The rumor that Ogakor would lose 3 ICs in a row has come to pass. Kucha now has booted only Debb and Kimmi. This I believe has made Kucha an unbeatable team. They have trimmed the fat so to speak with their weakest member being Rodger, who is still better feed(and probably stronger mentally because of it) than the strongest Ogakor. The team now consists of 6, 1 more than Ogakor, which will give them an advantage in almost any IC or RC, for that matter. I think Kucha will sweep the challenges this week, because of this.......and don't forget the 6-4 rumor....... Ogakor at TC: Who's safe? Amber for one. She has not received a vote, yet. Everyone in Ogakor knows that Amber is Jerri's puppet. Why target the soldier when you can take down the general? Jerri is not likely to try to team up with Keith/Tina to vote out Amber, she's busy nursing her wounds from her alliance break-up and knows Amber is the only one she can trust. Amber stays. Tina, I feel is relatively safe this week. It's the last council until merger, Jerri has already seen that with enough persuasion, Tina will vote with her group, why vote out someone weak right before merger? Keep in mind that all challenges after merger are for INDIVIDUAL rewards or immunity. Keep the weak, vote out the strong. Last week, after Og. lost the reward challenge it was Tina who comforted Amber, perhaps a friendship in the works. Only flaw here is that before the merge you should keep the strong and vote out the weak and Jerri didn't seem to realize that either.....Good chance that Tina stays. Colby, fairly safe. No one is really targeting him now, they are fighting to get him back on their side. He's likable and not really causing any trouble. Only scenario, where this is a problem: Jerri feels that with her recent disagreements and falling out with Colby that she should vote against him. She stresses to everyone that after this merge it's gonna be hard to win Immunity against Colby. Keith/Tina agree, they all align to vote out the Colbster........ I don't think this is likely, but it would probably be the smartest thing to do. Jerri, in a little bit of trouble here. She has succesfully ticked off everyone except Amber. But, why vote her out now? She is not physically capable of winning many ICs. If you carry her over to the merger she will likely become one of the first targets because of her bitchiness, taking the heat off of the remaining Ogs.....Jerry = 40% chance of leaving. Keith, here's the smoking gun: Micheal and Keith, supposedly did not meet until after they got back to Michigan. I honestly think that this happened. I think it was a slip up. I know it's a rumor, but........I'm going with it. Last TC before merger, Jerri, with her claws still somewhat imbedded in Colby, convinces him to vote Keith, to vote out the strong, convinces him he will be more likely to win more ICs this way. Remember the clip of Amber saying something to the effect of "Colby is not solid in his opinions" .He's easily swayed. This was a clue, Colby goes away from the alliance, Colby comes back to the alliance. Jerri is still thinking Tina has voted with us before, she will again.....Keith = 60% chance of leaving. Let's get it right this week guys. As of now, I'm saying this: Kucha sweeps both RC and IC and Keith is voted off and I'm saying absolutely nothing else about who gets injured. 
|
|
|
Top |
| |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-26-01, 05:26 PM (EST)
|
|
54. "Who misled Kimmi?" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-26-01 AT 05:27 PM (EST)We have still only seen some of the dynamics in Kucha, and I have a feeling we won't see them all until the last episode. The question that I have is this: who misled Kimmi into thinking that people were voting for Jeff? I think it had to be Nick: 1. It had to be someone who was worried that Alicia would get voted off instead of Kimmi. Moving Kimmi's vote to Jeff was the equivalent of wasting it. 2. I have no difficulty in believing that Elisabeth, Rodger and Michael coordinated their voting. 3. If E, R & M coordinated their voting, they wouldn't be worried about Alicia getting voted off instead of Kimmi, so they wouldn't have any reason to lie to Kimmi. 4. Jeff wouldn't say he was voting himself off. 5. Kimmi wouldn't ask Alicia. What does this mean? Well, it might mean that Nick is actually part of an alliance but is concealing it at this time. Or it might mean that he is just trying to lie low for now. But I'm not prepared to accept that Nick is a "lone ranger" without further evidence. Edited for typos.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
|
02-25-01, 01:43 PM (EST)
|
|
8. "My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
Let's take a look at some of the things we know so far. I don't know if this has been posted on here yet, but there was an interview with Mark Burnett on Entertainment Tonight this past Friday. He talked about the accident, and how it was so significant, he had to include it into the episode. He also said the accident causes some of the remaining Survivor's to relocate. That leads me STRONGLY to believe it has to do with some sort of fire....hence the name of this week's episode, "Trial by FIre". Some other information I've gathered.
1.) There was an article in the Los Angeles Times saying that there would be more men then women at merge time....this was later debunked (Sorry, no source by who) .
2.) A family member to Michael Skupin quoted that he returned to the United States with his hands bandaged, possibly from burns. This information was from a Film Threat article.
3.) We all know of the radio interview with Michael saying he and Keith did'nt get to know each other as well as he would have liked to have. I personally think Keith will be the 1st victim of the merged tribe.
4.) Let's examine the causes now. I think any kind of horseback falling by a 63 year old can be debunked for the time being. I think the theory about a fight between Alicia and Michael is quite comical. I think any kind of attack by a crocodile would have somehow leaked through....and if it was a crocodile, then we can eliminate Alicia. Post- Survivor II, she talked with Entertainment Tonight. No scars on her legs or arms were visable. I think if she were tore up by a crocodile, they would be. I feel any kind of airplane (?) or chopper crash is unlikely. Any sort of insect bite seems possible, but somehow I don't think that's it either. I'm also disregarding any rumors about lightning or hail storms seeing how it's a clear day that the attack occurs on.
Leaving me to believe that the accident is indeed a fire, and the victim is either Rodger or Michael. If you take a closer look at the water splash, you can see either black or brown hair, and caucasian skin....which would eliminate Alicia, Nick, Elisabeth, and Rodger.
But.
There are many reports that Rodger is indeed the one, but upon inspection of the previews, the brown hair leaves Michael, Rodger, and Jeff. In the clip, Jeff looks more traumatized than anything to me, so I'm eliminating him, leaving the accident victim to a burn injury between either Rodger or Michael.
On a side note, I think that this event occurs the day after the last Tribal Council. However, the victim returns to camp before any challenges take place. Kucha wins Reward Challenge and Immunity Challenge, Ogakor votes off Jerri and Tribal Council.
That's my theory. I welcome any questions or comments. Final Four: Alicia Calaway, Jeff Varner, Elisabeth Filarski,
Michael Skupin.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 03:05 PM (EST)
|
|
9. "Big Clue in editing from Episode #5!" |
Because I write the summaries I have the burden of watching each episode 3-4 times....so I hve a chance to pick up on some things that we might've missed.I am a big fan of trying to speculate by following the story lines that MB is giving us...as well as the foreshadowing to future storylines.
Here is what I saw in E#5:
During the "previously on Survivor" segment from the beginning of the show, MB showed us a clip that ad nothing to do with the E#5 storyline.....it was a clip of Scarri and Colbster talking in which the narrator said "...while Colby tries to make a deal with Jerri." The clip is from E#4 and it is highly cut and edited, but the exact scene is Colby talking to Jerrri and saying "I'll make you a deal.....its me, you and Amber." Now, we all know that this conversation was related to the Bitchell vote and Colbsters attempt to save Keith. So, why would MB be showing it to us in E#5, especially considering that it didn't come up AT ALL in E#5! The answer is simple...MB is setting the table for a Colby/LAmber/Scarri alliance. Agreeing w/ the lgic already asserted on this thread, it makes sense for Colby to knock off Keith next vote as opposed to Jerri.....it makes sense in terms of post merger IC's as well as the possibility of facing one or the other in the final two. Additionally, Colbster has already let us know that he knows the strategy for playing this game, that being to keep the strong members inorder to win IC's pre-merger, and then after the merger to form voting alliances. That lets me know that he won't be stupid inthis last vote...he will definitely have his eye on the future.
The key to this theory is embracing the idea that MB WON'T show us a storyline unless he plans to explore it at some later point inthe series....this is the same logic I used late last week to change my pick from Alicia to Nick...I know that I was wrong, but I was not wrong in the reasons I used for Alicia staying....that being that MB has spent TOO much time showing us the Jeff/Alicia "future talks" for it to not be part of the story.
We should start to keep a thread keeping track of storylines...that way we can keep track of stroylines tha have been exhausted (Kimmi & the chickens) and storylines that are still floating in flux (the Colby/Jerri/Amber alliance)
If Ogawhore loses, I'm leaning towards Keith.
And one more thing, relating to ACPS65's claim that Rodger is a "fire victim". You better take your theory back to the drawing board b/c of the shot of Rodger hugging Liz post-accident......THERE IS NO WAY THAT A BURN VICTIM COULD HUG ANYONE.......getting hit by a slight breeze would be agony for a burr victim. Nice try, though.
-Shakes
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-26-01, 05:12 PM (EST)
|
|
53. "RE: Big Clue in editing from Episode #5!" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-26-01 AT 05:30 PM (EST)>During the "previously on Survivor" segment from the beginning
>of the show, MB showed us a clip that ad nothing to
>do with the E#5 storyline.....it was a clip of Scarri
>and Colbster talking in which the narrator said "...while Colby
>tries to make a deal with Jerri." The clip is from E#4 and it
>is highly cut and edited, but the exact scene is
>Colby talking to Jerrri and saying "I'll make you a
>deal.....its me, you and Amber."
>
>Now, we all know that this conversation was related to the
>Bitchell vote and Colbsters attempt to save Keith. So,
>why would MB be showing it to us in E#5,
>especially considering that it didn't come up AT ALL in E#5!
>
>The answer is simple...MB is setting the table for a
>Colby/LAmber/Scarri alliance. Agreeing w/ the
>lgic already asserted on this thread, it makes sense for
>Colby to knock off Keith next vote as opposed to
>Jerri.....it makes sense in terms of post merger IC's as
>well as the possibility of facing one or the other
>in the final two. I don't agree that this has to be the reason. An alternate reading is that the fraying of the Colby-Jerri alliance was a main theme of E5. I still think the video clip (on the CBS Web site) showing Jerri almost crying at the end while apparently discussing Colby being mad at her over the travois-making is significant, ESPECIALLY because MB chose NOT to show the end part of the clip during the show, just the beginning (in which Jerri sounds arrogant). STORYLINE:
E3 -- Colby is a solid part of the alliance
E4 -- Colby wants to stick with Jerri and Amber but not Mitchell
E5 -- Jerri ticks off Colby
E6 -- Colby votes Jerri off >Additionally, Colbster has already let us
>know that he knows the strategy for playing this game,
>that being to keep the strong members in order to win
>IC's pre-merger, and then after the merger to form voting
>alliances.
>
>That lets me know that he won't be stupid in this last
>vote...he will definitely have his eye on the future. Who would you rather have on your side -- Tina, who voted off her best friend to stick with the alliance (which Mitchell confirmed that she belonged to) without giving any hint of her intentions, or Jerri, who openly displays every emotion she feels and wouldn't respect you in the morning? As far as Kan-Kook-Keith goes, he provides the Kuchikoo with an obvious target for E7, giving Colby a chance to look around and try to make some deals to save himself in E8.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
|
02-28-01, 00:20 AM (EST)
|
|
87. "RE: Big Clue in editing from Episode #5!" |
Aya, I agree with this. Colby is playing for himself and trusts no one. Tina is similiar though she is a backstabber. Jerri and Keith oppose each other. I don't see Amber as being seen as a threat, but the other four are. I see Tina not alinged to Jerri. The tribal council list of Jerri bondees and the fishing boat incident make Tina sharpen her knife. The question is, how safe does Tina think she is? Does a 2-1-1-1 vote occur? I don't think so. It's too risky to plan that way and who would vote for Amber alone? Unless of course, she gets the two. But the animosity points to Keith and Jerri. And, there's little to suggest Tina is a second choice consensus. So a minimum of three votes is more likely. IMHO, in order for Keith to go, Jerri and Amber need Colby or Tina. If Jerri doesn't get her way on hitting Keith for some reason, she must join the voting against Amber, Tina, or Colby (if there is any). I don't see Colby allowing Jerri to have the advantage again. I think he is disgusted with her. She didn't take his offer and he knows what she's all about. A quick look at the merger consequences. Keith gone does not mean Tina is aligned with Jerri again nor is Colby. This just sets up the same "problem" the tribe ended up having with Jerri and may prove a problem later on especially at a block of 2-1-1. Ogakor needs at least a 3-1 or 4-0 block. Even a 2-2 is too risky. OK, Colby hit? Jerri would have to turn on him and pick up Tina to do it. Not likely from Tina's point of view of being brought back even if to only vote the same as Jerri. I see Tina's despise for Jerri growing. And, as I said, I believe all four are virtually equal threats. And Keith could see Colby stronger and thus easy to get out later when he doesn't win immunity. Right now, Keith knows he needs Colby to get Jerri with. That leaves Amber and Jerri. Amber as I said isn't as threatening and I see her only as a second choice. But even this is remote. That would mean leaving Jerri around. I think Colby would rather have a lamb around than a black widow. For one thing, lambs are good to form alliances with because they do what you want them to! In this tribe, there is much less certainty. So it's Jerri. It's possible that Amber is told that Jerri is next and she should consider her vote carefully, but it isn't necessary. With 3 votes from Keith, Tina, and Colby Jerri is gone. It also supports the 6-4 theory and the more men than women theory. Basically it's reducing the possibilities down to what is actually common sense. What we have been wanting since episode 2 aired. Just like Kimmi, Jerri falls.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-28-01, 01:05 AM (EST)
|
|
88. "Trust and Strategy" |
Minstrel, we're on the same wavelength this week. It's nice to be able to sit back and view this game dispassionately and strategically, as we can do while watching the show, but these people are experiencing real emotions that influence their judgment and that don't just get washed away in three days. This is especially true when trust is damaged.Tina, for example, saw herself as part of a 5-person alliance that was planning to advance to the merged tribe. Suddenly, in E3, Jerri lists a FOUR-person alliance MINUS Tina. Imagine how she feels: she's just about to vote her best friend off the island and she's not in the core alliance? Then, the very next day, Jerri's Kidz steal the boat out from under her. No matter how strategic it might be to vote along with Jerri ... would you ever trust her enough to do so if you were Tina? Colby has a different trust problem with Jerri: he doesn't trust her judgment. We don't know what he thought of her comments at E3 TC, but we do know that he thought it was essential to cut Mitchell loose to win challenges although Jerri disagreed. The Ogies are 1-1 since Mitchell left, FINALLY winning the IC -- and the loss in the RC, in Colby's mind, might be tied to Jerri's travois-making, since her version looked to be significantly wider (and thus harder to carry) than Kucha's version. Keith doesn't like Jerri and doesn't trust her any farther than he could throw her. To expect these people to disregard these feelings suddenly, in the heat of battle, and vote in a more strategic manner is simply not rational. This is the point that MB has made several times: the S2 crew came in with strategies, but under pressure they reverted back to themselves. For once, I think he's telling the truth. BTW, I think Amber defects from the rest of Ogakor once they vote Jerri off. She'd see Tina and Colby as traitors to Jerri's Kidz and Keith as the instigator of the rebellion. Plus, turning defector to Kucha gives her the best chance to save herself!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-25-01, 03:09 PM (EST)
|
|
10. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
The title of the article: "Trial by Fire"Leaves us to believe there was a fire, but also, by using the word "trial" possibly, this means that the fire is the cause of the booting. I've also read that Michael is signing autographs, "I'll do you proud". Maybe this means he was a hero of some sort. Maybe embers came flying again, and someone catches on fire (clothing) and Michael grabs them and brings them into the water. 2 people going in could explain the big splash. Maybe this was Jeff. That is why he is so distraught. His fleece catches on fire and Mike saves the day. Mike sacrafices the game to do the humane thing. One thing that strikes me odd though is that there was that fictitious report of Michael being seen in New York with bandaged hands. There is a picture on one of the sites of Michael and Rodger that was taken at Rodger's house. In the quotes from Rodger's wife, it said Rodger was glad to be able to clear the air. On this note, maybe Rodger was the one getting burned up, Michael saved him, and Michael came to his house to let him know that there were no ill-feelings. Even with all the posts saying there is a tribal council, I don't think there is. I think Michael leaves the game due to the injury. Also, it says how one team gets cocky. So, I could see Ogakor winning the Reward Challenge, then at first getting excited about the incident, and then realizing, Geez, what are we becoming? Someone is seriously injured and all we can think of is the game, making them think twice as well. Elizabeth is crying into Rodger's arms thankful that he is ok, and upset that Michael is hurt. Can anyone find any holes in this?
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
kandlo 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-25-01, 06:39 PM (EST)
|
|
27. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
well, if the footage of rodger hugging elisabeth was from a previous incident, what was she so distraught about?
if its from a future show, rodgers hands looked alright to me.
i buy all of your other deductions about who it can be and i agree its michael.
im not sure if he makes it back for the RC but im sure he'll be there for the IC.
i know its easy for me to sit back and comment on all of your theories especially since i havent done any research or posted any of my own, so i hope you dont think im starting some sort of war
id hate to be voted off the message boards
p.s. my p.s. was a joke and again no harm meant
k
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 03:52 PM (EST)
|
|
15. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
>
>I've also read that Michael is
>signing autographs, "I'll do you
>proud". Maybe this means he
>was a hero of some
>sort. ...where have you seen this???? Maybe embers came flying
>again, and someone catches on
>fire (clothing) and Michael grabs
>them and brings them into
>the water. 2 people going
>in could explain the big
>splash. Maybe this was Jeff.
>That is why he is
>so distraught. His fleece catches
>on fire and Mike saves
>the day. Mike sacrafices the
>game to do the humane
>thing.
....this "speculation" has ZERO basis....it's on the same level as the Mike/Alicia brawl speculation we saw yesterday.
>
>One thing that strikes me odd
>though is that there was
>that fictitious report of Michael
>being seen in New York
>with bandaged hands. ...you yourself even acknowlege that this is "FICTITIOUS" and then you USE it for your analysis....more problems with your "theory"
There is
>a picture on one of
>the sites of Michael and
>Rodger that was taken at
>Rodger's house.
....provide a link, please or else this is obviously boolshit.
In the quotes
>from Rodger's wife, it said
>Rodger was glad to be
>able to clear the air.
>On this note, maybe Rodger
>was the one getting burned
>up, Michael saved him, and
>Michael came to his house
>to let him know that
>there were no ill-feelings.
....by your own twisted logic, how does this evenmake sense???? Mike saves Rodger and then goes to Rodgers house to clear the air of hard feelings???? Why would Roger have hard feelings for the guy that saved him from a fire. This post gets more and more ridiculous by the sentence.
Even
>with all the posts saying
>there is a tribal council,
>I don't think there is.
....and you are basing this on WHAT???? This board is for fact based speculation, not your random, baseless thoughts.
>I think Michael leaves the
>game due to the injury.
...but, just two seconds ago, you said that Rodger was the one who got injured and that Mike saved him....you need to make up your mind as to which of your ridiculous notions you are "backing".
>
>
>Also, it says how one team
>gets cocky. So, I could
>see Ogakor winning the Reward
>Challenge, then at first getting
>excited about the incident, and
>then realizing, Geez, what are
>we becoming? Someone is seriously
>injured and all we can
>think of is the game,
>making them think twice as
>well.
.....this is the dumbest thing I've ever read...this is a spoiler board, not a fantasy fill in the blank choose your own adeventure board. The truly retarded part is that even in the scenario you dreamed up, that still wouldn't qualify as being cocky.
>
>Elizabeth is crying into Rodger's arms
>thankful that he is ok,
>and upset that Michael is
>hurt.
>
>Can anyone find any holes in
>this?
....The more appropriate question is "can anyone find anything in this post that ISN'T completely retarded.
The only one catching on fire is you Cowboyroo, cause you just got flamed.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-25-01, 04:19 PM (EST)
|
|
19. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
http://www.communitypapers.com/grantky/myarticles.asp?P=165246&S=502&PubID=3079&EC=0This is the link to Michael going to visit Rodger at his house. If it doesn't work, it's under www.survivornews.net Halfway down the middle of the page is the link to this article. It's about Michael getting more freebies than Rodger. The autograph signing thing, I can't remember where I read it, but it was shown several times on the spoiler boards. The reason I implied to the Michael seen in NY with bandaged hands is that if he did burn his hands in Week 6, he surely would not still be bandaged 4-5 months later and the photo on the link above doesn't show much of Michael's hand, but I think enough to say its not bandaged. Rodger would have hard feelings that Michael lost the game for saving him. As competitive as Michael is, I could see a lot of guilt in Michael losing the game due to saving Rodger, especially if an Ogakor alliance picks off Kuchas one by one going even into the merger. Obviously this is a lot of speculation, but just being devil's advocate on everyone being so FIRM that there is NOT someone leaving due to injury...
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 04:38 PM (EST)
|
|
20. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
...thanks for the link to the Rodger/Michael story. I liked the article, but think there is ZERO spoiler value to it. But, the article does help enhance something I have believed all along, that posts relating to who gets along w/ who nowadays has VERY LITTLE spoiler value....the article pointed out the obvious, that being that all 16 of these people are in a sense "a family"...they all experienced something extremely unique that will connect them for the rest of their lives...with that in mind, it wouldn't be hard to imagine all of the survivor adopting Kimmi's mantra, that being "whatever happens in the Outback stays in the Outback" This is a GAME and even if someone screws you over completely in teh GAME, you are still going to be connected to that person for the rest of yoiur life, so why wouldn't yo attempt to be friends with them. I put ZERO stock in the "jeff, Alicia, Mitchell, Jerri" premiere party spoiler...it has no significance to the outcome of the game. The only thing the article shows is that Roger wsa relieved to finally have someone he could talk to when Mike came to visit.....I'm sure they stayed up all night just reminiscing. Think how hard it must be to partake in something like this and then come home and hve to be 100% silent about it for 3 months, that would be torture..the only people you would be able to turn to are the ones you experienced it with.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 05:04 PM (EST)
|
|
23. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
>The main reason I am looking
>for the Michael leaves without
>a vote is that if
>it doesn't happen, my Glossary
>theory goes out the toilet.
>If it does happen, a
>lot of stuff can fit
>in perfectly.
>>I'd like to hold onto
>my glossary theory for 4
>more days.
> ....that's one of the problems people run into when trying to speculate.....they tend to try and construct a theory and THEN try and FORCE the evidence to fit into the theory, instead of the correct way which is to analyze the evidence and THEN try to construct a theory that fits the evidence as opposed to the opposite.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 05:41 PM (EST)
|
|
25. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
>Shakes, check out the glossary theory....it's
>a bit confusing but works....
>...I read your theory, but I'm not putting ANY stock into it...it looks like a load of crap to me...sorry, just being honest.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-26-01, 05:50 PM (EST)
|
|
57. "Premiere party analysis" |
>I put ZERO stock in the "jeff, Alicia, Mitchell, Jerri"
>premiere party spoiler...it has no significance to the outcome
>of the game.shakes, I was the one who originally posted this tidbit from the Hartford Courant article. What I forgot at the time was that the only member of this group really coming in from out of town was Jerri, because the others were from NYC. The only important element of these friendship stories is TRAVEL, because that requires someone to do something that he or she wouldn't otherwise have done. But we already knew that Jerri and Lurch were close; she probably had to come to town to return his backbone. In short, I agree that this has no more spoiler value than Michael and Keith attending a premiere party together. As far as Michael and Rodger's meeting, we also have already figured out that they are likely to be voting together. And I've driven from Detroit to Louisville for overnight business trips; it's not that far. So this doesn't tell us anything new either. I would give spoiler value to one of these stories that introduced a new relationship and involved travel (for example, Amber coming to visit Elisabeth in Boston). But so far, we haven't come across any such stories. Maybe there aren't any! "Society's goal is to be part of the whole. That may sound good to you, not to me." -- P.F. Sloan
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-26-01, 05:54 PM (EST)
|
|
58. "What about the glove?" |
tooti, take a look at the glove Michael is wearing in the thread that quotes the Chris Gore article and see if that doesn't restore some of his credibility to you.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-25-01, 10:23 PM (EST)
|
|
32. "RE: My Analysis...Rodger or MICHAEL." |
I also saw the photo of Rodger and Michael together at Rodger's house. But I just thought Rodger's wife was saying that it was great for Rodger to be able to talk to someone else about everything because they are sworn to secrecy. Rodger has had to be quiet about the Survivor experience and now he had Michael that he could talk to because they both were there. I didn't think it meant anything else but that.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
BIGsurvivor 23 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
02-26-01, 00:27 AM (EST)
|
|
36. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
if kucha does lose IC, then i dont think there's any chance anyone else could get the boot than nick.. nick allying w/ J/A is not probably, as a three person alliance is not going anywhere after merge. nick allying with M/E/R is possible, but i think the will realize they are better off allying w/ J/A (they can always cut them off later w/ a 3-2 advantage w/i group)..plus if hey do lose they will need a unified 5 going into merger, and if they vote off jeff or alicia then other person will go w/ ogakor
|
|
|
Top |
| |
frogspit 95 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
02-25-01, 03:25 PM (EST)
|
|
12. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
I also think the Ogawhores will lose both the RC and IC, so here's an alternate analysis. Susan Hawk says in her TV Guide Close-up this week, "Either the strongest or most LIKABLE (my emphasis) person needs to get chewed up" at the last tribal council before the merger. Amber may be considered too likable by the Kuchas and otherwise not voted off (look how long Colleen managed to stick around). The Ogawhores cannot even grasp how to form an alliance (thanks to Jerri's vile stench), but maybe they can finally come to the realization that they MUST have a real alliance of four to stand a chance. Jerri is such a bitch that she'd gladly drop Amber if she is allowed into the Final Four Alliance. Keith and Tina might also be open to that compromise of allowing Jerri in if Amber goes. Colby would also understand the wisdom of that choice. Think about it... Amber is the only one who has ZERO influence in the tribe and she can be safely booted without a shred of remorse. As it stands now, the lame screwoffs are too divided to have a cohesive alliance, but by coming to a compromise (out of earshot of Amber) they just might be able to have a real alliance by voting off Amber. That's really Jerri's only hope to make it into a four-person alliance, and she likely knows it, and will trade out Amber as a compromise in order to stay in Colby's and Keith-Tina's graces. Just my thoughts on an alternate analysis of what might happen. Do I think the Ogawhores will do it? Nope, they're not a bright lot. But who knows, I just thought I'd throw it out there to ponder.  Likely they'll vote out Jerri or Keith and the Kuchas will pick off their nonexistent alliance starting with Amber early on.Alicia has it right, BTW, when she said Elisabeth must go because she could easily win (or words to that effect) because of the likability factor. frogspit
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
|
02-25-01, 03:27 PM (EST)
|
|
13. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
Superman, it pains me but I must disagree with two
of your basic premises about which team gets immunity
in E6. You said: Kucha is an "unbeatable team"...."with their
weakest member being Rodger, who is still better feed
(and probably stronger mentally because of it) than
the strongest Ogakor."
I disagree! Rodger (53) hasn't shown nearly the
strength or agility to win against
Colby, Keith, Tina or Jerri. Also factor in
the fact that Ogakor won IC last week and they
are going full-out, do-or-die to win the last
IC before the merger. Next you said: "The team now consists of 6, 1 more than Ogakor,
which will give them an ADVANTAGE in almost any IC or
RC, for that matter." I disagree! Last week in the RC "stretcher race" --
Kimmi and RODGER were excluded to even up the numbers.
This was the ONLY reason Kucha won the reward...the lack of
Rodger's participation. Later in the Maze IC -- the team with the larger number (Kucha)
was at a DISadvantage and lost big time because they had
more people and because one of them was dead-weight Rodger. So, I'm leaning towards Kucha going down in E6:
because they have Rodger,
because they have more people,
because they are at odds among themselves,
because they are not as desperate to win as Ogakor,
and
because "some accident" happens in their camp which
causes emotional upset; thus throwing them off their game. Dalton
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-26-01, 00:39 AM (EST)
|
|
37. "Good Point Dalton, but................" |
Who's to say they won't let Rodger sit out again? For some reason, you never hear negativity directed toward Rodger from his team. This could either be a setup via MB( every show kucha goes, ohhhhhh we love Rodger and then suddenly one week everyone votes him off) or it could be that he is just a perfect balance between likable and helpful. Nobody expects him to go that far because he is old, but he's playing the game. He's endeared himself to most of them and he's yet to cost them an IC. >Later in the Maze IC -- the team with the larger number (Kucha)
>was at a DISadvantage and lost big time because they had
>more people and because one of them was dead-weight Rodger Agreed, but that's why I said almost any challenge. I'm not sure what the IC is this week, but judging by the resembelance of challenges in S1 and SII, it's about time for a spear toss/boomerang type game and I believe that this is something Rodger would be good at. >So, I'm leaning towards Kucha going down in E6:
>because they have Rodger,
>because they have more people,
>because they are at odds among themselves,
>because they are not as desperate to win as Ogakor,
>and
>because "some accident" happens in their camp which
>causes emotional upset; thus throwing them off their game I can see your logic in all of this D., but still, I think "some accident" happens, causes emotional upset, and gives Kucha a "win one for the Gipper" attitude.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
kandlo 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-26-01, 07:12 AM (EST)
|
|
45. "RE: Good Point Dalton, but................" |
didnt rodger cost them the immunity challenge where they jumped off the cliff?
i think it was from episode 1
or was that a reward challenge? i dont remember
k
|
|
|
Top |
| |
kandlo 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-25-01, 04:04 PM (EST)
|
|
17. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
i agree in the line of thinking that kucha wins this weeks IC, because they have the better team.
i also see colby as the swing vote again
now does he side with tina/keith or jerri/amber?
if he were smart and thought things out (which he has showed signs of) he'll vote keith off.
keith is a threat to him vs the other members of Okagor in the upcoming individual ICs.
keith is stronger than the girls and is probably smarter than jerri.
for colbys survival hes gotta get rid of keith
sayanara chef
k
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
kandlo 25 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-25-01, 04:06 PM (EST)
|
|
18. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
p.s. if anyone out there can tell me who is in ACPS65's final four, i am dying to know
k
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
DonkeyWood 17 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
02-25-01, 09:57 PM (EST)
|
|
31. "Jerri is going down" |
Jerri is voted off this week. Here's why.I'm betting on: 1) the "Kucha has more members in the merge" theory to assume that Ogawhore loses Immunity this week. 2) From the CBS website "Who orders a "time out" when Jerri and Keith butt heads?" OK, so Jerri and Keith finally go at it. Obviously, Keith and Jerri are going to try to recruit members to vote the other off. Keith/Tina and Jerri/Amber are certain. Colby is the swing. Colby already voted against Jerri in the past and doesn't trust her because he voted against her alliance in the past. Colby sides with Keith. Jerri is GONE.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
K DOGG 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
02-25-01, 11:27 PM (EST)
|
|
34. "RE: Jerri is going down" |
I agree with Donkeywood's idea that Jerri is going to get booted this week (assuming Ogakor loses the Immunity Challenge). Everyone keeps on saying that Keith is more of a physical threat to win Immunity Challenges. And Jerri knows this and she will convince Colby to vote Keith off. Well, the thing is that Keith is not as much of a physical threat to Colby as he is to Jerri. Colby is stronger, more athletic, and younger than Keith. In most physical Immunity Challenges post-merger, Keith does not pose much of a threat at all to Colby. Also, Colby knows that in order to be able to compete with Kucha post-merger, Ogakor will have to be a unified team, which they are struggling with now. The best way to unite Ogakor to go after Kucha post-merger is to eliminate Jerri from the mix. She is the least-trusted and most commonly disliked member of Ogakor. And if she is eliminated next week, I think Amber would have no problem fitting in with Colby, Keith, and Tina to form a quality alliance.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-26-01, 07:40 PM (EST)
|
|
60. "RE: Jerri is going down" |
Jerri was wearing the pink bandana when they ate the bugs and cow brains. I don't think it is the merged tribe colour.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-26-01, 01:02 AM (EST)
|
|
38. "DonkeyWood and K DOGG" |
First of all, glad to have you aboard. Overall, I can see your logic about Jerri being the bootee this week, BUT you've got to take other things into consideration. - MB put a whole put a whole lot of effort into making her the villan. Now, he could have done the same thing to Jeff, Mike, even Colby if he wanted. It is highly unlikely that he spent this much time developing her character only to have her booted pre-merger. - Sometimes (and we are all guilty of this) we base our theories on who we want to see go, rather than who is likely to go. NOT at all saying this is what you have done, but it's something to watch for when somebody new shows up because, let's face it, 95% percent of us want Jerri to go and we could honestly bring up a weekly theory that would make it look like Jerri is leaving this week. It's a little harder this week, 'cause.........hell, you might be right. >2) From the CBS website "Who orders a "time out" when Jerri and Keith butt heads?"
OK, something about this bugs me. Here it is:
1. who orders a time-out is not relevent.
2. last week Keith said it wasn't worth the effort to argue with Jerri
3. Jerri is a #####. Why would they butt heads now? Well, Jerri has been a relentless ##### from the start, doesn't care what she says to who. But, Keith, why would he respond, didn't he just say it's not worth the effort? I think it's because he knows he's leaving and wants to tell Jerri off before he goes. This is a subtle CBS hint, it doesn't matter who breaks it up, it matters that they are fighting.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
DonkeyWood 17 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
02-26-01, 07:34 PM (EST)
|
|
59. "RE: DonkeyWood and K DOGG" |
Superman, thanks for the insight.>2) From the CBS website "Who orders a "time out" when Jerri and >Keith butt heads?"
>OK, something about this bugs me. Here it is:
>1. who orders a time-out is not relevent. Agreed. Who breaks it up is not important. What IS important (in my mind) is that Keith and Jerri go at it. This tells me:
1) It becomes personal. i.e. Keith is NOT going to vote for a random like before (Mitchell), he's definitley voting for Jerri. vice verca for Jerri wanting to vote for Keith. Thus I think that both of them will try to organize alliances with Colby being the swing. I've got to agree with you that MB wouldn't have built up the story line around Jerri. I stuggle with this explanation because Jerri is clearly the VILLIAN and as we know every show needs a villian. I'm sure with proper editing MB could have made Lizzie seem PURE EVIL. Then again, Jerri could truly be EVIL (no editing required!) and the story line was too juicy to pass up. SPECULATION BELOW I think that E6 marks a major shift in story lines and that the "Accident" will be the crux. I think that after E6 there will be a 'hero' and also probably someone who is shown to be 'at fault'. (and someone will obviously be the 'victim') Anyway, that's my $.02
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-27-01, 06:57 AM (EST)
|
|
67. "RE: Jerri's story line" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-27-01 AT 07:03 AM (EST)> Why not build a story line around Jerri, even if she goes in E6? It gives audiences that were >bummed by seeing Tricky Dicque win it all in S1 the chance to see that evil does not always triumph >on Survivor. Well, true but......why wouldn't he have built the villian to be someone else, someone who goes a lot farther, possibly loses in the final round. I would get alot more enjoyment, seeing Jerri go down via jury vote than by TC. The SI and SII contrast would be gold for MB. Picture it: You watch all season, it comes down to Jerri and uhhhhhh....oh say, Rodger. The Jury votes, oh crap, they are going with Jerri, it's just like last year, i hate this damn show...........oh wait it's Rodger! Rodger wins!!! Oh my sweet Jesus (thanks expert texpert) Rodger wins!! So, I feel unless MB REALLY, REALLY, demonizes Jeff a little more this episode, he can't dump his main character.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Elwood 93 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
02-27-01, 08:34 AM (EST)
|
|
70. "RE: Jerri's story line" |
Maybe because Jerri by far did the most "Evil" thing out of anyone in the cast, at least up to this point, by framing Kel. That was seriously low, evil, however you want to describe it. I know this game is all about backstabbing, but lying like that is below pretty much any standards of semi-decency. And it was STUPID on top of it all.And maybe because we'd all assume, like last time, the evil person is going all the way, and this time her not making the merger would make us feel all that much better. I know if Jerri happens to win (which I do highly doubt) I'd really not have much of an interest in S3, as I'd assume the evil person would win again, and not really care. I know I'm not alone in that I was seriously pissed at the jury when they gave S1 to Richard when Kelly should have won, no question.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-27-01, 12:38 PM (EST)
|
|
74. "Evil is as evil does" |
Visualize this:Jerri goes in E6, and the final four are Michael, Elisabeth, Nick and Amber (P.S.: this is not a prediction; I'm just using the "Mad Dog 4" per flying squirrel). Who's the villain? SO the way that I would build my show, were that to be the case, would be to use intermediate villains: Jerri first, then Jeff. If Nick is part of the Jefflicia alliance, I'd keep him out of the show until that alliance crumbles, just as I kept Amber out of the show until the Jerri alliance fell. Michael would be developed first, on his own, but he would be overshadowed at times. Elisabeth would be developed second, allied with Rodger; Amber third; Nick last. Hmmmm .... (reminder: this is not a prediction) "I don't want to start complainin'/ but you know there's always pain/ in my heart." -- name that song!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-25-01, 11:13 PM (EST)
|
|
33. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
as you
>generally don't get close enough
>to send xmas card friends
>in 2 weeks
.....that is where your analysis is clearly flawed....being on a Reality TV show does not qualify as "generally"...it oen of the most UNIQUE experiences anyone could ever have...and it would not be strange to develop the beginnings of lifelong bonds based on jsut a couple of weeks of contact...additionally, it was just Christmas Cards, which are not exactly the most personal things in the world...I send 100's to clients every year.
i think
>-and also that is not
>a huge time frame to
>remember but in a month
>or more you would forget
>a lot of things- ....this reasoning has no basis to it....you have NO IDEA as to Rodger's memory....additionally and more importantly, it never mentions that he "forgot" things, only that being w/ Mike and rehashing things helped him remember things more clearly.
This has ZERO spoiler value.
>also colby
>is showin saying "oh my
>god" when hearing the news
>but this seems like a
>reaction more to an animal
>attack then a burn as
>burning incidents are a lot
>more common in general.
...what????? Newbie, now you're just talking out of your butt. If you can offer up some fact based speculation, go ahead, but htis stuff you're spewing now clearly is not inthat category.
Welcome to the board Newbie, but you've got a lot of work to do...I grade your first effort as a C- at best.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-26-01, 01:27 AM (EST)
|
|
39. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
I'm a "Newbie" so treat me gently before you rip apart my theory on who goes next.lol.... Actually, I couldn't give a rat's ass. If I'm wrong, I'd rather know, than start a thread with no basis of factual information following me. So here goes...
I want to keep this as simple as possible. I think Keith is the next to go. Not because of any complicated points of view. I don't think the Colby, Keith, Tina alliance is all that strong. Also, I've read a lot of rumors since the show started, but none of them really have anything on Keith making it past the merger. (Not that there is a whole lot of info on anyone else, it's just that most all the rumors center around Tina, Amber, Colby and Jerri making it). Then there is the Sue blurb in the TV guide I just read. I don't think she has seen any shows ahead of time, but it stands to reason that she may know a few more things about what's happened to the current cast than we do. Her column didn't have any real spoilers to it, BUT she mentioned Colby, Amber, Jerri, and Michael specifically. Colby and Michael are some of the stronger people in each tribe, and stand to give a lot of competiton. To me, Keith seems just as strong and competitive of a player, why no mention of him? This is the weakest part of my theory I think. She may have been edited for storyline purposes???
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
wolf1bh 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-26-01, 01:29 AM (EST)
|
|
40. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
shakes, i said-
>-and also that is not
>a huge time frame to
>remember but in a month
>or more you would forget
>a lot of things- your reply-
....this reasoning has no basis to it....you have NO IDEA as to Rodger's memory....additionally and more importantly, it never mentions that he "forgot" things, only that being w/ Mike and rehashing things helped him remember things more clearly. shakes did you even read the article?
rodgers son is qoted as "it was unbelieveable stuff that mike started telling that dad had forgotten. crazy stuff." i am a student of psychology/psychiatry and a lot of my theories are based on guessing what goes on in their heads - much like you do with your theories of MB's ideas -
a random example from your posts- >The key to this theory is embracing the idea that MB WON'T show us a storyline unless he plans to explore it at some later point inthe series....this is the same logic I used late last week to change my pick from Alicia to Nick...I know that I was wrong, but I was not wrong in the reasons I used for Alicia staying....that being that MB has spent TOO much time showing us the Jeff/Alicia "future talks" for it to not be part of the story. you're making assumptions about MB's mindset in a similar manner as me making mine about colby or rodger's. maybe if a few of my theories are proved wrong you can flame me but in the meantime i think you should be a lil more open minded. wolf
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
stephon_marbury 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
02-26-01, 01:59 AM (EST)
|
|
41. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
Newbie here as well- been lurking for 2 weeks now, and finally have the guts to post- shakes, dont kill me!First, I will add points to some of the debate in here- I think being in a confined space with someone for 14 days straight is good enough time to send xmas cards, and well wishes- from everything we have seen (killing the chickens) Mike and Rodger are pretty close. The thing Im sketchy on is, how, after how long after the show, did people see Mike with his hands bandaged? To me, it would have to be very serious to still have bandages monthes after- it might not have happened, on the show. I believe Kucha wins RC and IC this week- I like the win one for the gipper concept, and the drive to have a numbers advangtage for the merge. This leads Ogawhore to TC- where Keith gives one final ditch effort to sway Colby, by getting into a spat with Jerri- this is where I think the whole "someone has to split up an arguement at Ogawhore" comes from- it doesnt really tell us that is is a member of Ogawhore- it could very well be JP- the spoilers dont lead me to believe this couldnt be true. I think Susan is taking her comments from things that happened in S1. Joel was the last castaway booted pre merger- probably the strongest of any. Instead of booting the not so mentality smart, or physically strong Jerri, Colby axes Keith.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-26-01, 02:24 AM (EST)
|
|
43. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
>
>shakes did you even read the
>article?
>rodgers son is qoted as "it
>was unbelieveable stuff that mike
>started telling that dad had
>forgotten. crazy stuff."
...Yeah I read it, but the above quote adds nothing to the analysis.....any "stuff" that Mike might have brought up could not have been related to the game since Rodger's son was present for that conversation.
>>The key to this theory is embracing the idea that MB WON'T show us a storyline unless he plans to explore it at some later point inthe series....this is the same logic I used late last week to change my pick from Alicia to Nick...I know that I was wrong, but I was not wrong in the reasons I used for Alicia staying....that being that MB has spent TOO much time showing us the Jeff/Alicia "future talks" for it to not be part of the story.
>
>you're making assumptions about MB's mindset
>in a similar manner as
>me making mine about colby
>or rodger's.
....not true. My theories related to MB's mindset are based on "proven facts", that being his use of storylines and the methods he has used over the past two seasons to draw out those storylines.....that is much different than trying to "guess" the mindset of Rodger and Colby based on an article and a 1/2 second high;y edited clip. IT's a fine line b/w fact based speculation and pure guessing....I know how to toe that line.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-26-01, 02:30 AM (EST)
|
|
44. "RE: Possible important info...." |
....my guess is that this pick came from early on and we just haven't seen the red jackets yet......the clean shaven thing is th efirst bit of evidence, however as Superman points out, they couled've used Kel's razor.But, we can definitely put this clue to rest after teh merger if the tribe decides to rerside at Ogawhore's camp cause this picture is clearly taken inside the Kucha shelter.....therefore, if the merged tribe picks Ogakor's house, we know that this photo had to happen in Day 1 or Day 2, based on the clean shaven look.
Someone mentioned that the coats looked like possile reward spoils from Target, based on the color of the coats matching the color of Target....but, Target has already sponsored a RC, the triage.....does anyone remember a sponsor being used more than once in Survivor I??
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
K DOGG 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
02-26-01, 01:26 PM (EST)
|
|
47. "RE: Possible important info...." |
I think I have seen those red jackets before, or at least one of them. In the last episode, I'm pretty sure I saw Mike wearing his in the episode. I saw it on him when Kucha was discussing the cold night they had because they moved the fire further away from their hut. Remember when Mike was talking about, "Well, it was cold on the inside and if it's cold on the inside blah, blah, blah." Well, that is when it shows him wearing the red jacket.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
GWhiz3 15 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
02-26-01, 02:29 PM (EST)
|
|
50. "RE: Possible important info...." |
I'm pretty sure this picture is taken from the first episode, when Kucha received the details of the first IC.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
|
02-26-01, 01:53 PM (EST)
|
|
48. "RE: Episode 6....Challenges are: " |
REWARD Challenge = Blind Leading the Blind.IMMUNITY Challenge = Obstacle Course. I spent awhile on Zap2It, SurvivorFever, SurvivorNews,
CBS and SS....so these are my "sources" for the above. About the "Blind Leading" for Reward --- maybe the 6/5
people make no difference if one Ogakor goes twice (as
was the case in the eating contest). I see this as more
one blind member leading one more rather than ALL members
of a tribe being lead blindly as a group because MB has
already used that bit in tieing them all together with
the rope challenge. About the Obstacle Course for Immunity --- the picture
posted on SS shows a straight course on the beach with
wooden constructed "hurdles"; some of which look like
they require really climbing. Also, I found a good MAP showing the camps, TC, etc.
which helped alot to situate the action in my mind: 
I'm offering this up for analysis. Dalton
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
|
02-26-01, 04:58 PM (EST)
|
|
51. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
I'm betting Kucha is too disorganized (see maze replay) and is affected greater than Ogakor in the accident at Kucha. Ogakor will try hard to even the score for the merger (they looked good in the maze) and still have that "never give up" addage Maralyn talked about. I see Kucha losing immunity.Having said that, Rodger, Elisabeth, Mike (in the boat pic), and Nick will vote a block while Jeff and Alicia are left alone. Alica has demonstrated she can jump down your throat and will on a moment's notice (Kimmi's argument wasn't that bad), and Alicia has said she wanted Rodger, Mike, and Nick to go. In many respects, Elisabeth may be the silent leader of this block (not alliance) by bonding with Rodger, allowing Mike to be crowned leader (thus targeting him by others first), and bringing Nick along for insurance. Whether Alicia and Jeff vote Nick, Mike, or Rodger it won't matter. Elisabeth was there for the Kimmi spat and she saw the whole thing. (Jeff may even see the light and rethink his bond with Alicia). I see 4 or 5 votes against Alicia. In the event Ogakor loses immunity, Jerri is history. Amber is the only one that may side with her against three votes from Keith, Colby, and Tina. I see 3 or 4 votes against Jerri. I don't think Alicia is the "accident victim." But it won't matter either way. I don't see two people leaving permanently in one episode.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-26-01, 05:11 PM (EST)
|
|
52. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
Supe, your in-depth analysis makes sense. I firmly believe Ogakor can't get lucky enough to avoid TC two weeks running, and I think they'll wind up there. As for Keith possibly going, I hate to say I think you're probably right, because I want Jerri out and Keith to at least make the merger, but.... well, here's my two cents on what I think may happen...Right now, I think Jerri has pissed off so many people that the emotions within Ogakor aren't focusing on the merger, as much as they should be. Right now loyalties and who gets along with whom are what's still stinging them, which is why I think they'll vote Jerri off and Keith will at least make the merger. You're right, Jerri's no threat in the individual post merger IC and Keith is, and if they're smart, they'll focus on him - but she has been SO miserable and evil that I think they may want her gone just because of the trouble she's caused up to this point. They may even be worried that if she makes the merger that she may be able to align with some Kuchas to pick off any Ogakors (remember Kelly briefly hooking up with Colleen and Jenna, so it could happen). There has been so much dischord inside Ogakor that they may just want to be rid of her NOW and wash their hands of her. ****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)
|
|
|
Top |
| |
MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-26-01, 05:43 PM (EST)
|
|
56. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
I also think that Ogakor will lose the immunity challenge this week, and my reasoning is from pure speculation. It is obvious that the Ogakor tribe is weaker than the Kucha tribe, and their lack of nourishment really stood out in the Reward challenge of this past episode. I believe that the Immunity Challenge this week will be more physical than a maze challenge is(this is the sepculation) and therefor the Kucha tribe should be able to pull it out assuming that Michael does not get hurt too badly. However, IMO if Michael is the one that is hurt thiw week, and it is a substantial kind of pain, then it could decrease Kucha's odds of winning a physical immunity challenge, since I feel that he is the strongest member of the tribe in regards to physical ability(yes I believe he is stronger than Alicia and Nick). However, for my speculation this week, I am going to assume that it is not Michael that gets hurt, or that if he does it is not enough to keep him out of the game.That being said in the Ogakor Tribal Council it comes down to Colby and who he sides with, as you have all said. So who does he side with? I think that Colby may again side with Tina and Keith to vote out Jerri. The reason that I say this is because he has grown noticably frustrated with Jerri in the past couple of episodes(particularly regarding the building of the stretcher). I also think that Jerri is almost as much of a threat post-merger when it comes to physical ability as does Keith. I also think that Colby has more "control" over Keith than he does over Jerri. If he sees it this way, then I believe he will side with the old folks and give Scarri the boot. At this point Jerri is my prediction, though there is really not a lot of substantial evidence to back anything up at this point.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
moonbaby 17120 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-26-01, 10:12 PM (EST)
|
|
61. "RE: which witch?" |
I'm with you on this one, MDSkinner-unless someone delivers a crate of power bars Ogakor may not have enough strength to clinch a win in what looks like a pretty strenuous challenge. Off to TC for them. If dirty looks counted as votes Jerri would be already gone. Tribe tolerance for her queenly attitude is on the wane. Say buh-bye, Gerrymander! (A good percentage of this is based on wishful thinking).
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-26-01, 11:21 PM (EST)
|
|
63. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
What we know about Jerri....She's a schemer, snake, etc. She knows she's in trouble if Ogakor goes to Tribal Council. She has Amber will do whatever she says. All she needs is one more vote. Options: Colby vote Tina
Colby vote Kieth
Tina vote Colby
Tina vote Keith
Kieth vote Colby
Kieth vote Tina Keith voting anyone is sure not gonna happen on behalf of Jerri. She has tried with Colby already but he hasn't budged. There have been several scenes of Keith/Colby talking, playing backgammon, etc. Jerri fears they have bonded. This leaves Tina. I can see Jerri going for Colby to vote Tina as to she is running out of chances. He would unlikely go against Keith anyway now, since that would be an alliance of 3 women to 1 man, which would make him toast right away if they make Final 4 without immunity, and we all know it wasn't men winning the last two immunities last time around... I don't see Jerri getting the boot. No one else has been developed as a villain, and we all know you need a villain to make a show interesting.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-27-01, 12:19 PM (EST)
|
|
73. "RE: Episode 6....put your analysis here" |
I agree with you. If we look at the shows apart from our own feelings about the characters and who *we* would have voted off by now based on who we like, we may get a few more clues.I also think Jerri is being set up as the show's villain (as Richard was in the last show), and I don't think that MB would put that much energy into her character development unless she survives past the merge. Keith? What makes him vital to the story other than his conflict with Jerri, and do we really need him to continue the storyline? No; on the show, Jerri is someone who seems to attract conflict, and I don't think she'll have any problem finding it in the Kucha camp. In an interview with Richard Hatch after he was voted off, Mitchell told him that on the first day while walking to camp an alliance was formed: Mitchell, Jerri, Amber, Colby, and Tina. Who was not part of the alliance? Kel -- voted off first. Marilyn -- booted second. After that, Tina began to see that the first two votes were mistakes...the first a strategy mistake, the second a moral dilemma (voting off her best buddy) although a good strategic move. She decides to go to the only other person not in the original alliance - Keith - and wants to get Jerri voted off. Later, she senses that Colby can be won over from the alliance if he sees the sense in booting Mitchell rather than Keith (who was the alliance's next target, and also a poor strategic move for them), and it works. Now, what can we learn from this? The viewer's impression is that Jerri is a b****, a black widow, that she would betray her dying grandmother if the chance came up. However, when have we seen her betraying anyone? She didn't betray Kel; she didn't have an alliance with him (granted, the way she got everyone to go with her on that jerky incident was underhanded, but hey, it's a game). She didn't betray Marilyn either. Even after the tie between Mitchell and Keith, when Mitchell basically agrees to be voted off, Jerri does not change her vote. What I've seen from this is that when she makes a promise to you, and you're on her good side, it's a promise that will be kept -- until it has to be broken (like the Tagi alliance). I'd have her in my alliance any day despite my personal problems with her. Who wouldn't I have in my alliance? Tina. Not in a million years. Don't get me wrong, she's smart enough and is playing the game well enough on her own...which makes her a danger if you're trying to keep her in your alliance. She was one of the first ones to search Kel's bag; she betrayed her best friend on the show; she breaks from her alliance to vote one of their own off. Not a very good record. I don't think she's in any kind of firm alliance with Keith, I think it was just convenient last time for voting Mitchell off. I think it would be a strategic mistake to vote Jerri off. I don't think booting Jerri automatically means meek little Amber will immediately bow to the will of the remaining Ogakors and form an alliance against the Kuchas -- I think it's equally possible that she would be upset enough about the whole thing to be interested in aligning with the Kuchas, which would certainly doom the Ogakors if they weren't already. This is, of course, assuming Ogakor goes to tribal council this week, and I think they will. Not because of the 6-4 rumors but just logically. If the IC is an obstacle course, which team is stronger and has more energy? Gotta be Kucha, unless Ogagor pulls one out of their collective asses. Also, if you think about wanting to have a strong tribal voting bloc going into the merge, either Jerri goes or Keith goes because those two are not going to make it in an alliance together. So, O goes to TC, and Keith gets voted off. My .02 went pretty far today
I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-27-01, 12:54 PM (EST)
|
|
75. "Colby" |
samiam, I agree with your analysis of Jerri. All we've seen her do is be loyal to her allies -- even when Mitchell resigned himself to elimination, Jerri stuck with him. The problem is this: WHY would Colby agree to go into a merger as part of a tribe that is 3 women, 1 man? They only have one day of "bonding" before E7 TC. Colby has to expect that Kucha majority will target the strongest Ogakor, along the lines of Richard targeting Greg and Gretchen first. In a tribe of Colby-Tina-Jerri-Amber, Colby is toast unless he wins the IC. BUT, if Keith comes in to the merged tribe, Kucha may take Keith out first, giving Colby a chance to try to make some friends and stir the pot even if he doesn't win the IC. If Lou Diamond Phillips were in the merged tribe, I'd bring Jerri (anyone else see the Enquirer article?). He's not, so she won't make the merger.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
02-27-01, 04:26 PM (EST)
|
|
80. "RE: Colby" |
I posted on the Ogakor bootee thread about this - a little different slant here...I agree, why would Colby want to go into merger with 3 women and no strong alliance? He should now be thinking of who will be valuable to him post merger. I say Keith. Keith will be loyal to Colby. Keith as a chef has an "in" with Kucha - with all their food and spices, with his pan and skills - they will want him around a least for awhile. If Colby can come in as a "package" with Keith, he can stay safer. He will be a big target, so he needs an alliance to protect him (along with his ability to win ICs). Tina hates Jerri, Amber loves Jerri - so they will not bond together over a Jerri boot. Either or both could be brought into the C/K alliance, but they are expendable, especially if C/K get in with any Kuchas. Jerri gets booted! Her villain story is played out, and new stories can get attention. Speculation: Who will go to merger meeting? This could lay groundwork for an alliance. Let's say it's Colby/Elisabeth, for example - they get along and we have a C/K/E/R alliance post merger, with mayube Michael thrown in. They sure would eat well!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-27-01, 05:20 PM (EST)
|
|
82. "Merger meeting" |
Presuming that MB picks the people for the merger meeting ... how about Nick and Amber? Each of them needs a better alliance (especially if Jerri goes in E6), and they could form a powerful duo voting along with Rodger-Elizabeth-Michael.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-27-01, 01:57 AM (EST)
|
|
64. "RE: Episode 6....KEITHS COOK BOOK RELEASE" |
I just read an interesting thread on Keiths book being released on March 1st... Now, this could be a big stretch but doesn't it seem rather strange that they would release a book on this day? He's a goner.... I doubt they would release his cook book on a day that Jerri or Tina or anyone else were ousted. That wouldn't bring much attention to it.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-27-01, 02:41 AM (EST)
|
|
66. "RE: Episode 6....KEITHS COOK BOOK RELEASE" |
It's on the site called "Survivor Insider" which led to the Keith site. Let's hope I did this right to provide the link..http://www.famie.com/h_index.htm. Or just go to Survivor Insider... www.angelfire.com/tv2/survivorinsider/
Hope this helps
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
duff 14 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
|
02-27-01, 08:11 AM (EST)
|
|
69. "RE: Episode 6....KEITHS COOK BOOK RELEASE" |
According to bn.com and amazon.com, Keith's book was published in February. It is currently on backorder at amazon, but available at bn.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
02-27-01, 11:08 AM (EST)
|
|
72. "thoughts on the bootee" |
wow...that's one long thread!I'm leaning toward Ogawhore being the loser at IC, so that would mean-obviously-someone from the oga-hos goes. Keith/Colby/Jerri --
Colby firmly put himself in a position of leadership, IMHO, by stepping out and getting Tina to vote with him and Keith to boot Bitchell. The REAL leader to me of the oga-hos is Colby. He's the only with that certain 'something' to really get everyone to do as he thinks. He had Bitchell convinced that he was his bud. But 'twas not to be. Amber, she's a follower. Her biggest 'accomplishment' on her bio is that she was vice president of her sorority. Now not all sororities are bad, but they do tend to attract more followers than leaders. (My opinion here...but it's based on experience). Back to the Colby in the middle stuff. Whoever Colby wants off will go. Which makes me lean to JERRI. Why? Testoterone. Seriously, Keith and Colby bonded. MB was good to edit in shots and scenes of their relationship. If they have any sense to them, they would get rid of Jerri. Keith and Colby are a much stronger alliance to have going into a merger than Jerri. Jerri is a wild card. She could go into that merger and screw everyone around, forming a new alliance. Can you imagine her and Michael? Either they will HATE each other, or Mr. Competitive and Mrs. Coniving will BOND too. (Although I think that Mike has a soft side to him--relationship with Liz and Roger as evidence). Tina--she is Colby's. Come on, Tina is a sweet middle aged southern lady who just goes for a smooth talker like Colby. In my mind's eye, I can just see Colby coming up beside Tina on their walk to Tribal Council, putting his arm around her waist, saying something to the effect of "darlin' whadda think about us all votin' together and gettin' rid of that skinny man?" He bats his eyes, flexes his hot muscles, etc. (Ok, so I think Colby is just down-right hot.) The only reason Amber isn't falling all over Colby is Jerri. She see Jerri as someone to follow. My logical mind would see JERRI getting the boot if the oga-hos go to TC. Colby's a dumbass if it's KEITH.
**** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
HomeBrewer 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
02-27-01, 01:18 PM (EST)
|
|
77. "RE: thoughts on the bootee" |
I agree completely. Colby is the leader of this group, much to the dismay of Jerri. If Colby is smart, he will realize that an alliance with Keith, Amber and Tina, and himself, is the strongest he can hope for. Jerri is too much of a wild card. Colby needs Keith or a convert (Nick?) after the merger. The alliance (can I call it that?) needs strong members (mentally and physically) who like each other to win IC's so as to control the TC's.
There are a couple other rumors, not that I believe them, that also give credit to this thought line. 1st, the 6-4 tribes and 6-4 guy-girl ratios. 2nd, Tina's phonecall (that has not been brought up recently) also manages to fall into place. The only rumor this does not fit well with is that Keith and Mike did not get to know each other well. Maybe one gets booted in E7.
I think the Jerri storyline has reached its end. MB is using the best material at the time. I think her story line was good enough to chase, even if she had been booted in E3.
My only concern is the hidden frame in the canoe scene. Was MB trying to get us to think Jerri won, or that she would get booted instead of Mitchell in E4? This board over analyzed that episode, so maybe we missed that MB was trying to mislead us, only in that episode. Just a thought.
The question of who gets hurt is trying (managing) to keep interest up, and away from who is leaving and not the injured party(who does not get voted out). Is it an attempt to overshadow the next bootee, who is a gimme? Kimmi was a gimme last week, so most of us missed that one.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-27-01, 05:45 PM (EST)
|
|
83. "E7" |
Nice to have you with us, HomeBrewer. I agree with your analysis above. If S1 is an indication, the two "ambassadors" will spend day one after E6 TC reviewing the other camp site and then reaching a decision about where to move. Day two will be spent moving and "bonding", and day three is the IC (no RC last time) and TC. Thus, if either Michael or Keith gets booted in E7, they will have had one day of contact time in the merged tribe.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-27-01, 01:11 PM (EST)
|
|
76. "Release date" |
I'm no expert on book release dates. Let's say Keith was going to be booted on March 8 (E7). Would the book have a release date of March 8, or do release dates cluster on the 1st and 15th?
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-27-01, 08:14 PM (EST)
|
|
84. "RE: Release date" |
Release dates can varry. It all depends on the kind of book being sold. Top ten authors tend to have books around the beginning or middle of the month. But, if there is a reason that would push sells, I think that the book sellers would be tempted to manipulate a release date.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
|
02-27-01, 10:15 PM (EST)
|
|
85. "Spoiler? What spoiler?" |
My current approach is to put my head in the sand with regard to the publication date, and I'll explain why.Two weeks ago, we received word from moonbaby about Kimmi's thong contest. My very first post on the subject was that it would make sense if Kimmi left before the second night. But then I thought about it more. What kind of person would want to host a THONG CONTEST during her week of national publicity? Monica Lewinsky, maybe, but only if Bill Clinton was a judge. I couldn't see anyone else wanting to do it. Of course, I was wrong ... because I was trying to think like a normal person instead of like a loonie who would go on this show in the first place. This week we have a person being booted and a book being published. I might very well like to tie my book's official release date to my ouster. Personally, I would release the book the week before I got booted, hoping that the pre-sale would be enough (due to my media whoredom) to put it into the best seller lists. Then I could do my publicity tour as the author of a best seller, not merely as a media whore. Maybe I could tie in some book signings! But again, I'm afraid that I'm thinking like a normal person instead of a loonie. Would it seem more fun to a media whore to start his tour the day he gets booted or a week later? I don't know. Anyway, MistyG, I agree that this info is supposed to tell us that Keith isn't long for the tribe. But whether it indicates departure in E6 or in E7, I don't know.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
|
02-28-01, 00:14 AM (EST)
|
|
86. "RE: Spoiler? What spoiler?" |
Well, I sort of feel the same way. My thoughts go two ways on the book thing. It seems that a publisher would want as much PR to go with the re-releasing of a book as possible. However, I just thought of this.... so it's really really not based on anything else but speculation.... Could it have been a red herring to steer us away from a Jerri outing. The only thing I can think to substantiate this is that MB may realize how everyone things the Colby, Keith, Tina alliance is going to take Jerri down. He may want to shift interest towards Keith....That seems very far fetched. I'm still gonna stick with Keith getting the boot. The book deal could mean nothing, but I just don't think that Tina and Colby are all that reliable of people to have in an alliance.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
02-28-01, 11:04 AM (EST)
|
|
89. "RE: Spoiler? What spoiler?" |
>Could it
>have been a red herring
>to steer us away from
>a Jerri outing.The more I read about the cookbook, the more I think that too. I'm totally steering away from my previous posts on this thread where I'm all worried that Keith's gonna get the boot this week - I don't think it's gonna happen yet. The book has been on sale at Barnes and Noble already, so I think it is a diversion - I mean, no big deal that it's only being sold as of March 1 on his own website. He's already making money off it now. As for the rumor (was it ever confirmed for certain?) that Michael and Keith never got to know each other well in Australia, that could just mean one of them got the boot shortly after the merger, before having a chance to bond. I think this week it's Jerri - Keith might not be far behind after the merger, but not this week.
****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
|
02-28-01, 07:29 PM (EST)
|
|
94. "RE: Release date" |
This issue of the book release may not be as important as we think. With a few episodes under our belts (and his), a publication release would capitalize on the exposure regardless if the person was booted out. Granted, IMO, a release during episode one for example, is potentially less effective since we haven't seen much of the survivors, but now is a good time. And, what if he goes much deeper into the game? Sales could benefit from that. If he is booted, it may inhibit larger sales. But as we saw in S1, they capitalized on their exposure on the show even after it concluded. I can see CBS authorizing (if in fact they need to), a book release anytime since it really doesn't give away any secrets (unless it actually relates to time and events within the show). Since I have no intention of buying it (I know how to filet fish and am not a bad cook if I say so myself), I will have to take what first hand cook book readers might say of it. Hell, if I was on Survivor, I'd be planning to do this sort of thing from the get go. "Life After Survivor." Though I do like the implications about the timing of these sorts of spoilers, I think they are as much coincidence as anything else. We know from hearing authorities in the business of marketing, that it is crucial for the survivors to keep their names and faces in front of the public. And most have. And, the deeper a survivor went/goes, the better. Sonya? A local celebrity at best. She's just not interested in it. She evidently gets more satisfaction out of appearing locally and supporting her charity cause. BB? A commercial and then it's back to the rich life anyway. Colleen? Perhaps make up, but she has disappeared as has Greg (what else is new?). Other S1's have done more. Part of the "demise" of S1 survivors is S2 itself. Rudy and Rich, etc., will live on longer of course. So, why not begin to capitalize now if you are an S2 player? Use the show and its run to further your attempts, dreams, and goals. I recall that the "16" have been fairly bonded as a group. There will be a lessening effect to this over time, but capitalize now. Keith has a particular advantage. Chefs tend to put out books and material on cooking anyway. But just what can Amber do? Jerri for example, has no problem. Her acting career will likely be boosted from her being on Survivor. (Not that she is a good actress though.) For Keith, it just makes good sense.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
fivebills 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
02-28-01, 01:46 PM (EST)
|
|
90. "I've yet to hear a REASONABLE theory...so here's mine" |
Take note, I haven't read everything, but I've read a lot and for the most it seems as if MB has duped you all again. This is the way that I see it. Firstly, let's disspell any likely-hood of there being some confusion or change to the way things are done due to this injury. This is a program description for ep. 7 as listed in TV Guide.
----------------------------------------
"The Merge" The 10 remaining survivors merge into one tribe, on "Survivor: The Australian Outback," Thursday, March 8 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network. As a prelude to the merge, members from Kucha and Ogakor are allowed to visit the opposing tribes campsite to assess each others current living conditions. Once the merge takes place, each tribe member must depend on his or her individual accomplishments in order to survive. In the face of these new dynamics, each person attempts to put the best foot forward, despite any loyalties to the former tribe. And, a seventh member is voted out of the tribe.
----------------------------------------- It clearly states that 10 survivors will merge, these are the rules, and this is the way it should be. Rules also state that every three days there will be a tribal council in which a survivor is tossed. This will not change. Therefore any injury that will occur, to whomever will not change the fact that someone will be voted out. Most likely the survivor is treated and returned to their tribe. Kucha will obviously go through some physical and emotional problems on this episode. Due to the injury, they may have to forefit the RC or IC if all of the teammates cannot participate. The reaction shot of Jeff covering his face with his hands is more likely due to a challange loss and not the injury. Kucha will lose one or both of the challanges. This being the final TC before a merger, it would only make sense to vote out the stongest person in the tribe to protect yourself later during the individual IC's. You no longer need that person to help win IC's as a team. This was done last season when everyone was shocked to see that Joel was voted out, but it shouldn't be a shock. It's the smart thing to do. Which ever team loses the immunity challage, the stradegy for voting should be the same. If Kucha wins immunity, which I doubt, Colby is the obvious choice, not to mention he is a swing voter and has no strong alliance. So sorry all you absence-minded Jerri haters, but she's not done yet. By the way, after episode two, Jerri or Michael were my picks to win it all, and I'm still sticking to that prediction. If Ogakor wins immunity, which is likely, I'd say they have two choices, Mike or Alicia. Besides Jeff, Alicia's attitude is not well liked. And if Mike does in fact get hurt in this episode. Why not let the injuried guy stick aroung a litte longer? He's become weaker and a less likely threat. Rodger, Elizabeth, and Mike are sure votes for Alicia. Jeff and Alicia will surely vote for Mike. That leaves Nick. We could have a tie, but I feel that Nick enjoys the luxurious that Mike brings to the tribe and could have a tough choice with that. A tie situation is tough, because neither of them has any votes. If Mike wants to insure his survival he may get Rodger and Elizabeth actually to vote for Jeff. Being that he has two votes already, a tie would go in favor of Mike. So Nick is the key that I can't quite figure for sure, but I'm sure that Kucha loses the IC and either Jeff or Alicia goes. Less than 30 hours and we'll know for sure.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
fivebills 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
02-28-01, 01:51 PM (EST)
|
|
91. "RE: I've yet to hear a REASONABLE theory...so here's mine" |
By the way, I believe that the only reason to notify Ogakar that a member from the Kucha tribe was injuried to inform them that a challange has been forefited. It is within reason that a member lives for medical attention and returns, yet misses a challange. And if all memebers cannot perform in the challange, then they must forefit.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-28-01, 05:23 PM (EST)
|
|
92. "RE: I've yet to hear a REASONABLE theory...so here's mine" |
>If Kucha wins immunity, which I
>doubt, Colby is the obvious
>choice, not to mention he
>is a swing voter and
>has no strong alliance.
>So sorry all you absence-minded
>Jerri haters, but she's not
>done yet. By the
>way, after episode two, Jerri
>or Michael were my picks
>to win it all, and
>I'm still sticking to that
>prediction. I just wanted to comment on this point. I would agree that Colby would be the most likely one of this group to be voted out, if and only if the rest of the tribe were thinking with the logic that you speak of(meaning thinking of what would give them the best chance post merger). However I am not certain that this is the way that they are thinking. I believe that Tina and Keith are trying to survive the kids, and that Jerri and Amber are trying to survive the old folks + Colby. I believe that both sides will be trying to get Colby to vote with them, and not actually voting against Colby. If they wisened up they would vote against Colby, since he is their biggest threat after the merger. But they are not thinking that way, or at least up to this point they are not thinking this way. Therefore, it is just as possible that Jerri will be voted out as anyone in that tribe. I believe that right now Colby is safe, since people appear to be vying for his vote. So I believe that Jerri, Amber, Tina or Keith are equally likely to go at this point. If Colby wants one of them out he will go and talk to the other two and will ask them to vote for that person. At this point he has started to grow frustrated with Jerri and her attitude(stretcher challenge as an example) and he may not want her around much longer, especially since she is bright and physically fit. If he does not want her around he tells Keith and Tina and they vote with him and she is gone. That is as likely a scenario as any right now for the Ogakor tribe, if they lose immunity. However, they may not lose immunity and there is no proof one way or the other to determine that.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
