 Welcome to the State of the Spoiling for Episode #3 of Survivor Tocantins: The Brazilian Highlands which has sometimes been called: Millionaires vs Models. We are glad you stopped by the State of the Spoiling thread where we try to put together all the clues available to spoil EPMB’s show. We try to predict what will happen on Thursday night before the show airs... sometimes we are right and sometimes we are not but we always give it our best shot and try to have fun with it along the way. Based on the discussions that are spread out on this board and elsewhere, we present what our experts think regarding the reward and immunity challenge winners, which players might be sent to Exile Sandbox, which one finds a hidden immunity idol, if they use it or give it away, and which survivor takes the walk of shame after Jeff snuffs their torch. To catch up with what happened last week, you can read Samboohoo’s fine summary here. You can also read the play by play in Estee’s East Coast Spoiler Thread where posters write their comments as they are viewing the show to help out those who need to know but are either in different time zone or unable to watch. We had a slow week in the ECST so, if you have nimble fingers and like to share comments as they happen with other posters, you can join Estee and friends next Thursday. These scenes, however, tell you what happened last week: At first, everyone wanted to get rid of Sierra 
“We’ll make her sleep with the fishes.” 
“Help!” Sierra was saved when Candace threw herself in front of an incoming bus: 
Even John Madden commented: “See Al; that’s what happens when you try to tackle a running back by the shoulders: BAMM! They give you a stiff arm and you go flying. You can’t tackle a big back like George that way.”
So, while the Jalapeno Red Peppers celebrated with Shorty
They were…I mean she was voted out. The upcoming episode is titled: "Mama said there would be days like this" It was brought to us by FlowerPower in this thread which also contains the CBS clues for the week. Immediately, Brownroach realized that the title could be a quote from Taj, our former pop star, because that’s also the title of a song by The Shirelles. Last week, Taj was confronted by her tribe and its leader, JT, about being so rich that she doesn’t need the money. The clues themselves are: 1. One castaway begins to suspect that the company she has been keeping may have put her chances of winning the game in serious jeopardy. Some posters think this could also be about Taj but she already told us last week that her tribe wants her out so she wouldn’t « begin to suspect ». My opinion, which was backed by Tribephil, is that Erinn will say this after returning from Tribal where she realized that an alliance had been formed behind her back. If this is misdirection, then Erinn would be safe this week. More on that later. 2. A devious plan is hatched on Exile Island, giving rise to what could prove to be a devastatingly powerful alliance. When we get to the previews, we’ll see a devious plan being hatched. Because there’s probably not going to be two devious plans presented in the same episode, then we know who will be sent to Exile Sandbox. The way the clue is phrased makes us think that the devastatingly powerful alliance will not come to fruition because one of its members will be sent to Loser Lodge. (which is starting to look like the Brazilian Hooters!) The question is when? Will it be this week? To get a better chance of finding the answer we need to look at the previews which were brought to us as always by FP, courtesy of our friends at Survivor Fever. They can be found here: First we have scenes of a blindfolded challenge that eventually leads to the players having to fill pots with corn, too much corn!
 
Then we see the players lifting something which could be taken from a second challenge. They appear to be wearing the same clothes but their wardrobe has been very limited up to now thanks to production:
 As a side note, what do you think of production choosing the players’ clothing so that they are color coordinated? I don’t particularly like the meddling but, if it’s to give Sydney that cute little red bikini bottom, it isn’t all bad! Enough distraction, we need to spoil this one! We don’t have any celebration vidcaps and we can’t compare the progress of the Timbits against their rival Red Peppers. We’ll have to look further for answers. Now, we get to the serious stuff: The devious plan:  
 During this segment of the preview, we hear the following exchange: Jeff: And Taj makes a secret alliance.
Taj: We would have a four-way alliance that nobody knows about...
Male: That nobody knows about...
Taj: Exactly.
Taj <in confessional>: They won't even know what's coming. *wicked laugh* Combined with clue #2, we know that this must happen at Exile Sandbox so Taj is exiled which is interesting in itself:
Did Timbits win the challenge and did Brendan use his influence to impose his choice?
FP speculates that the one making the alliance with Taj has to be the same Brendan which would follow if Taj chooses someone to accompany her from the winning tribe.
On the other hand, the tribes may simply be using the “Sugar” plan, exiling always the same players so that a limited number have access to the idol.
Brownroach notes that, since Taj was the one shown making the alliance, she could see something bad happening down the line. The first week end promo presented by “you can call me cat” Sylvester showed evidence that we will have a second challenge this week.  
Erinn fears that she is on the outside of the alliance which would tie in nicely with the first clue.  We also see Tyson and Coach discussing strategy. CTGirl brought us an extended version of that promo where the voice-over adds interesting information: Joe: We're just a force to be reckoned with.  Announcer: One tribe is coming together. 
Joe: We could really do some damage if we win the next challenge.
Announcer: The other is falling apart. (notice that the vidcap focuses on Sierra and Debbie)
Jeff Probst: Momentum has definitely shifted.
Announcer: Survivor, Thursday...  Joe: One, two, three...
Stephen/Joe/Sydney/Spencer: Pao! Announcer: ...who will get crushed by the competition?
Jerry: It's gonna fall.
Erinn: I feel like I'm kinda fighting for my life a little bit.
Announcer: And one partnership...
Tyson: Anytime there's a blindside it's pretty awesome.  Ben <in confessional>: He's my right hand man, he's my general.
Tyson: *laughs*
Announcer: ...may not be what it seems.
Tyson: I love seeing people cry when you crush their dreams.
CTGirl reacted to this promo by saying: “The question here is do Timbira lose both or do they come back to win immunity? I'm certain that Jalapao wins reward. Tyson versus Coach could be misdirection and cocky Joe signals a downfall for Jalapao in the immunity challenge.”
I agree that, for Timbira to be “falling apart”, they need to lose reward. At least that’s covered. Also, here we see that Timbira appears to be leading:
Another interesting vidcap in the promo is this one where Timbira appears to be acclaiming Brendan:
 Pepe asks why they showed that particular image and I admit it could be a long term clue. Brendan had a confessional where he said his job is to get people to work with him and, up to now, Coach, Sierra and Taj have offered to work with him while Jeff has said in challenges that first Erinn and then Tyson have worked well with him. For those who want more inside information: - Brownroach brought us the transcripts made by JamesBarber from the CBS Insider videos. - Estee brought us a link to RTVW’s own interview with Candace Smith where she dishes on Coach (a pervert), Debbie (a prancing-attention-deficit-disorder-cougar) and everybody else. Candace, we have room for you in Bashers! - Estee also linked us to an article about Coach where we learn that he was fired as Coach and he plans of going Hollywood. That would suggest he last long in the game and counts on profiting from the notoriety. - Also, Suzzee brought us Probst’s blog  Jeff wrote: “The problem with Taj's revelation is that you give people a reason to vote you out. Taj just shouted at the top of her lungs – ''I don't need the money! I'm already rich!!!'' That could be costly.” - On the same page as Jeff’s blog, Dalton’s video interview of Candace with Courtney Yates co-hosting is fun to watch.
You can also read Veruca Salt’s editing thread in which I started the discussion after episode #2. This episode seemed to show that the Theme of First Impressions led the players to form pairs. Of those Tyson and Jerry, Sierra and Brendan, JT and Stephen should go deep in the game along with Coach. 4 of these players are part of what I like to call the “Highland 6”; the 6 players that had confessionals during the opening segment. If those 6 were chosen because it was important that we formed our own First Impressions of them, then maybe they will all make the merge including Sandy and Erinn.
So now is where it gets tricky: Who will be booted?
A case can be made for half the cast:
- In case Timbira goes to Tribal: Suspect #1: Erinn = She appeared to have been told at the last moment that the vote was against Candace so she could be an outsider. I think it is misdirection even if her tribe has to vote. Suspects #2: Sierra = Being on Coach and Brendan’s good side should take her out of danger. Suspects #3 and 4: Coach and Tyson = It would mean that a battle for leadership has begun. They both seem to have stories that extend further than this week and Tyson seems too sly to start open warfare that could put him in danger. Suspects #5: Debbie = If Tyson wants to undermine Coach, getting rid of Debbie would do the trick and he could rally Jerry, Erinn, Brendan and Sierra. Debbie was set up during the last tribal council, when she said she trusted people. Listen for the bell sound which tells us she is wrong to do so. If you believe that the Timbits are going to Tribal, Debbie looks like the best bet. If Jalapao goes to Tribal: Suspect #1: Sandy = She can’t be getting less crazy and Spencer told us she’s the next to go, didn’t he? That in itself rules her out for me. She’ll be the misdirection vote. Suspects #2: Sydney = She was weak in the first challenge but did well in the second. She’d need to crumble in the immunity challenge to get voted out. She doesn’t appear connected to JT, the leader of Jalapao, but she doesn’t seem to be getting on anyone’s nerves.
Suspect #3: Joe = I don’t know why Jalapao would vote him out but he had been ignored by the editors until they chose him to present Jalapao’s new found cockiness. A lot of focus on Joe isn't good for him, Suspect #4: Taj = Taj got on JT’s radar last week and we didn’t hear any comments from the tribe regarding her being chosen to go to Exile Sandbox. They had to fear she’d find the idol. If she goes again with Brendan, she becomes a threat to flip in addition to potentially having the idol. Jalapao executing plan voodoo where 4 players vote Taj and 2 others vote Sandy just in case Taj has the idol wouldn’t surprise me. Nothing in the promos leads us to believe that an idol was found so Taj would be snuffed. In Summary, I believe that:
Reward Challenge: Jalapao
Exiled Players: Taj and Brendan
Immunity Challenge: Timbira
Booted Player: Taj
I know our veterans will want to vote in Dabo’s thread to post their pick of booted players but it would be nice to see new posters sharing their opinion. The link for the voting thread is here. It only takes a few seconds to register a username and a few minutes to read our guidelines which are found here. All new users are welcomed!
Hagiz 1 from Survivor Sucks tells us that Episode #4 will be titled: “The Strongest Man Alive” which really sounds like a sarcastic remark about Coach. Finally, roaming around, I spotted a picture which tells us the merge buffs will be GREEN:  I hope you enjoyed this edition of the SOTS. If you have more information, you are welcomed to share. Check back later if anything new pops up. I'll edit the post if that happens because this week is still very much up in the air. Thank You.
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) to do my first SOTS. 
