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kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-08-08, 06:03 AM (EST) "SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Welcome to another season of Survivor, the 17th to be exact. Were glad you stopped by the State of the Spoiling thread where we try to one-up EPMB and accurately predict the results of his show before it airs...sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will eternally try! If you’re new to our site, please check out our Community Guidelines that are located here. They keep Blows running smoothly and remind us that it is nice to be civil! If you missed last week’s episode you can read frisky’s summary of Episode 2: ”One Plus One Equals...FAIL!!!" You can also check out Estee’s ”Episode #2 East Coast Spoiler Thread". If you have never watched and read the thread, you are missing something. I know there are West Coasters who read before watching. How ever you do it don’t miss Estee’s Episode #4 East Coast Spoiler Thread posted sometime Thursday before the show. Thanks Estee. Welcome b1whois! They brought to our attention a source of spoiling we have yet to dissect. Visit ”Insider Videos AKA what the editors did not want the casual viewer to see" and offer your help or opinion. A true staple of our Spoiler Forum is VerucaSalt’s “The Players, The Game, The Editing - Survivor Gabon". Please remember that this is a Spoiler-Free thread. ”Jiffy's Blog " was posted by suzzee. This wee we found out it only took Sugar 20 minutes to find the idol. Estee describes the ”Survivor: Gabon: Post-ouster interviews."thread as “ the Discussion of what they said, just how badly it came out, how they tried to spin it afterwards, and what we can learn from it.” OK! Let’s get on with it: suzzee brought us the title of "S17 EP3 : " It Was Like Christmas Morning!" ~~~~~ The ”Ep 3, Website Clues..." were posted by Flowerpower. She has been kind enough to show us how to apply OFG2 Theory to the CBS Website clues. OFG2 THEORY 1. The teaser writers like to give some "love" to each tribe. 2. One of the clues holds the boot story. 3. The tribe that gets two out of three clues has a better shot of going to TC. CLUES 1. One Castaway vows that a tribemate will be "the next lamb to the slaughter". The discussion seems to lead to Ace saying Kelly is the lamb. (nuFang) 2. Exile Island leaves one Castaway feeling as if it's Christmas morning. Could this be Ace or Sugar who knows that the Idol has been found? Or could it be someone who’s lazy and not really in the game? 3. One Castaway's desperation leads to waterworks, and the waterworks lead to sympathy. Will sympathy lead to her safety? Since Sugar has the II hidden somewhere, it seems that Kelly is the one who crys for sympathy, it doesn’t work. (nuFang) 4. The tribes rank their members based on importance, and one Castaway is given a very rude awakening. This seems to shout GC (Fang) According to OFG2 Theory nuFang will go to Tribal and vote out Kelly. ~~~~~ Flowerpower posted the Vidcaps: Ep 3, "It was Like Christmas...." Promo Transcript: Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor... <Kelly and Sugar bouncing back and forth> Sugar: Ding, ding, ding ding Randy: Crystal, Kenny and G.C. are not with me. Probst: A tribe divided... G.C. <talking to Crystal and Kenny>: The tightest three is right here. Probst: ....divides again. <Fang walking up to challenge> Probst <talking to tribes>: Today you are going to rank your tribe from top to bottom. Probst: And the game is turned upside down. ~~~~~ We are picking new tribes! The order: Final 3 to be picked The tribes are divided: Dabo brought over this picture from Survivor Phoenix. The new tribes are: Nu Fang: Ace, Crystal, GC, Jacquie, Kelly, Ken, Matty Nu Kota: Bob, Charlie, Corinne, Dan, Marcus, Randy, Sugar, Susie Reward or Immunity Challenge The Challenge that we have vid-caps for, looks like a lacrosse/polo/soccer game on water. It involves individual rafts and a ball, passing? and a goal. The first team to score three goals will win. Please check out this thread there are many more pictures to help you make your decision. Because NuKota seems to have the stronger and more determined players I believe Kota wins the Challenge and erases Kelly’s pictures and sends her home. THE DETAILS EXILE: RC/IC: Kota BOOT: Kelly ~~~~~ Now go vote in byoffer’s SurvivorBlows Tribe, Time To Vote: S17 Episode 3" thread and enjoy the show. Next week: ”S17 EP4: "This Camp is Cursed" air date 10/16" Thanks suzzee for the titles! As always thanks to Survivor Fever!... Thanks Survivor Phoenix ... And a big thanks to akaIves. fall in love with tribe   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... Flowerpower 10-08-08 1  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... suzzee 10-08-08 2  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... emydi 10-08-08 3  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... byoffer 10-08-08 4  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... CTgirl 10-08-08 5  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... mattben 10-08-08 6  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... whoami 10-08-08 7  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... Outfrontgirl 10-09-08 8  RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... kircon 10-09-08 9    RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... VolcanicGlass 10-09-08 11        RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... kircon 10-09-08 12            RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like ... VolcanicGlass 10-09-08 13  Great Job on the SOTS mommy0f4 10-09-08 10

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-08-08, 08:18 AM (EST) 1. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Way to go, Kircon! Excellent and very thorough SOTS. I think you have nailed it! Thanks for giving me credit for explaining the OFG2 theory but we have OFG herself to thank for that one! I'm just glad she decides to post them on our boards!   Top

suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-08-08, 09:23 AM (EST) 2. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" One stop shopping for all my S17 needs. Super SOTS kircon! A Tribal Sig   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-08-08, 09:44 AM (EST) 3. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Nice SOTS, k. Thanks   Top

byoffer 15947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-08-08, 09:48 AM (EST) 4. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Nice job!   Top

CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-08-08, 01:01 PM (EST) 5. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" It was like Christmas Morning to find out that you had done the SOTS for this week! Way to go Kircon: two times in three weeks! Thanks, you rock. An Agman Nation Creation   Top

mattben 1265 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-08-08, 07:10 PM (EST) 6. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Nice, kircon. Thanks. So I guess there's just one challenge -- the water lacross. The other "event" time is the change-up of the tribes?   Top

whoami 2936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-08-08, 08:21 PM (EST) 7. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Thanks kircon for doing all the work this week. It has been hard to keep up with things this season, too much home work. LOL. Great job. Thanks again.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-09-08, 05:59 AM (EST) 8. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" oh lord, now I stand to have major egg on my face! Thanks for the mention though! Lovely SOTS, kircon! The swaps are always hard to sort through. I sure appreciate all the work done with the vidcaps to put the info together. Did it ever become clear who would go to Exile? I think your Kelly pick is very reasonable. Her face is suddenly prominent, and I barely know what she looks like up to this point. Seriously, Kelly who?   Top

kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-09-08, 10:15 AM (EST) 9. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Thanks everyone. It's been a drought in the spoiling field. I have looked everywhere for any bit of info. I found this on Survivor Phoenix's site: Speculation ONLY, based on vidcaps, as requested. "After players are ranked within their own tribes, the top player of each tribe becomes the MVP of that tribe. The next top rated players and the lowest rated players from each tribe are swapped, as well as one additional player from each tribe, possibly at the discretion of the top-ranked player. Based on vidcaps, we don't think that more than three players are swapped from each tribe. One of the players listed under new Kota will likely be sent to Exile, perhaps only to rejoin the tribe going to TC, making the tribes even for next week's episode." I would then say Sugar, GC, or Susie would have the chance to go to exile. I can hear Sugar giggle and say," It's like Christmas Morning!" "giggle" I have the Idol and my cake too. But SP has Fang winning which means Kelly is safe. Most spoilers have Kota winning the boat challenge then booting Kelly. My guess is Fang is able to send Sugar (Kota) to exile. Maybe because they have an extra player. That might be the picture we see of Sugar with her back to us. Kota wins the IC sending Fang to Tribal Council. Fang votes out Kelly. I don't know? What do you think?   Top

VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-09-08, 12:58 PM (EST) 11. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" Nice SOTS, kircon. I am puzzled by the following statement you wrote. >But SP has Fang winning which >means Kelly is safe. Most >spoilers have Kota winning the >boat challenge then booting Kelly. We have only posted vidcap analysis of the tribe swap, but have made no claim that either Fang wins IC or that Kelly is safe.   Top

kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-09-08, 03:04 PM (EST) 12. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" I wrote the statement by reading this: ...one of the extra players listed in new Kota will be sent to Exile and rejoin the losing tribe at TC... which to me means Kota will lose and vote out one of their own. Then on the resource page, the same statement was said: ”One of the players listed under new Kota will likely be sent to Exile, perhaps only to rejoin the tribe going to TC, making the tribes even for next week's episode." In my mind, that says someone on Kota will be booted. Am I misreading the vidcap? I see statements in Vidcaps as “claims”. I did include “Speculation Only, based on Vidcaps” in my post. Maybe I should have included it in my statement.   Top

VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-09-08, 03:37 PM (EST) 13. "RE: SOTS Gabon: Ep 3: "It Was Like Christmas Morning!"" kircon, I can see why you would reach that conclusion, but in fact, there is nothing in that graphic that suggests Kota loses. The problem, I think, comes from trying to fit three different events into a graphic that was intended to relate only to the new tribal line-ups: the tribal line-ups, Exile and the challenge outcome. The three players which have not been identified by vidcap analysis as being on either tribe are Dan, Sugar and Susie. At least two of them will be on Kota, leaving the fate of the third one undetermined. Since the number of players is uneven, with Kota having one more player than Fang, there are two possibilities for the swap: Kota remains one player up or Kota and Fang have equal number of players, with the odd player out being sent out to Exile. That was the extent of the reasoning on the tribal swap. Because I wanted to acknowledge that it is possible one of the players might get sent to Exile as a result of the swap, I made the notation on the graphic with the "it is probable" and "based on vidcap evidence" disclaimers. As a separate issue, there is the aftermath of the challenge and the conclusions we can draw from the vidcap evidence. We have footage of the challenge which includes a shot of the back of a blonde woman. Some people believe it to be Jacquie while others think it is Sugar. Honestly, the cap is not sharp enough for absolute certainty, but it looked more like Jacquie than Sugar to me, mainly because the bikini strap at the back was thin as in the one Jacquie wears rather than the thick one Sugar wears. If the blonde girl in the raft is Jacquie, then we have our Fang tribe as outlined above. In addition, we have no direct vidcap evidence of who might be on Exile and whether they rejoin Fang or Kota. If the blonde girl in the raft is Sugar, then one the three women who we know to be at Fang at some point after the swap, yet for who we have no challenge footage (Crystal, Jacquie or Kelly), must be on Exile, Fang must lose IC and they must return to Fang camp prior to TC. Either way, with the possibility of Fang losing this IC, it would seem the producers would plan for the exiled player to return to the losing tribe, making both tribes even in numbers for the following cycle, regardless of who wins this week. If Fang loses, they simply swap a boot for a new member. If Kota loses, they simply lose an existing member. 7-7 I hope this clears up any confusion.   Top

mommy0f4 32 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-09-08, 11:04 AM (EST) 10. "Great Job on the SOTS" I've enjoyed watching all the tribe change speculation this week and you did a great job of summarizing it all. Thanks   Top

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