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"Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion"
Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-29-08, 01:35 PM (EST)
 
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"Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-29-08 AT 02:35 PM (EST)It's time to post our thoughts on how the end game will play out. To date, we have seen that some of the other Boards' Spoiler lists have been a little less than accurate. This week, we are told by Jiffy that at least one more DAW will be removed from the game WITHOUT the benefit of having been voted out (a la Jonathan Penner and Kathy) at Tribal Council. It is very clear that indeed, James will be med-evaced out with that abcess on his finger. Another one of the "Power Players" will also be voted out tonight. IMHO, it's got to be either Natalie or Alexis. In order for this to happen, Erik must win the IC and Parv must decide to stick with Amanda and Cirie or her new alliance of Natalie and Alexis. It is also speculated that Amanda will be sent to ExI this week and most likely will find the HII. Given this information, it would be likely to speculate that this might help sway Parvati over to her side to vote out one of the fans -- either Natalie or Alexis. With Alexis also having suffered from a knee injury, and seeming to be the "nicer, more well-liked" of the two, she could well be the next Survivor voted out of the game, IMHO. Assuming this is the case, then we are left with Erik, Amanda, Cirie, Parvati and Natalie as F-5. In order to stay in the game, Erik MUST win immunity. However, I think that he will not and the girls will vote him off as they know they could not beat him in the end-game endurance challenge nor possibly in the F2 in front of the jury. He has offended practically no one! With Erik out, our F-4 would be Amanda, Cirie, Parv and Natalie. Who would most likely win immunity here and who would most likely be voted out. My thinking is that Cirie or Natalie would not win immunity. If Parv or Amanda wins immunity, who would they want to take out of the game at this point? It would have to be the most liked survivor left -- either Natalie or Cirie, IMHO. If Amanda doesn't win the Immunity necklace, she could be voted out as she prolly is the most-liked player left in the game. If it is NOT an F3, but an F2, and there was an endurance challenge at F3, than who would you take if you won the endurance challenge? I think Amanda would take Parvati -- she has offended or backstabbed most of the jury (Ozzy, James, Erik, Eliza) I think Parvati might take Natalie over Amanda -- Amanda really has not doublecrossed any one so far, while Natalie backstabbed Jason and was part of the evil-girl alliance to blindside Ozzy. Natalie might also take Parvati for the same reasons Amanda would. Therefore, I am thinking for Amanda to make it to F2, she must win the last endurance challenge. Otherwise it would be a Fan v. a Favorite. Any thoughts?  
"Your'e amazing -- own it!" ... Ami Cusack talking about Ozzy
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-29-08, 02:02 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
My first question is: Has it been spoiled that it is a F2 only that faces the jury?My second question is: When did the "Amanda wins China" spoiler come out last season? I only heard about it after the season but I know it came out much earlier. If the jury thinks Amanda won China (and we know that Eliza and some fans must have been on spoiler boards) then that could cost Amanda jury votes this time. At one point, I thought Parvati had to face Natalie and Alexis in order to win but the PACT (Parvati - Amanda - Cirie Trio) could be in the Final 3 and Parvati could still win with a couple of Fan votes, 1 or 2 "good game" votes and 1 or 2 "I don't want to give Amanda a second million" votes.
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-29-08, 02:27 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
No, it has not been spoiled that it is F2. I'm just speculating. If it is an F3 scenario, than who would it be and why?
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-29-08, 06:03 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
Also, in the Survivor Fan podcast (which I listened to thru itunes so there's no link), Jason refered to the "final 2." He was getting pretty passionate and the hosts, I think, cut him off to keep him from spilling too much! My comments on that interview are here.
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CattyChat 3379 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-29-08, 02:43 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
I can realistically seeing it play out exactly as you said it Scar.I do think Erik's immunity run will end and he will be next voted out (after this week). Cirie is definitely the next one to go, as none of the younger, single, no real responsibilities girls will want to go against her in the end. I wouldn't give Cirie the money just because she's old, out-of-shape & a mom (especially because all she does is complain and doesn't do anything to contribute around camp. She's just a schemer and a great goat to take to the end to easily beat in an endurance challenge and vote out.) So, in a F2, I see either Parvati or Natalie winning over Amanda. Amanda just doesn't seem to have the fire in her to fight for it, IMO. Natalie will take Parvati, because they are closer and also on equal footing on back stabbing. Though I think Parvati would be more liked, overall. Parvati will take Natalie, because Amanda didn't back stab or betray alliances. Natalie betrayed her own "fans" and is a bit nasty as seen by the confessionals last week. I think Amanda has an uphill battle to make it to F2. Jury Votes if Parvati v Nat: Alexis: Nat
Amanda: Parvati
Cirie: Parvati
Erik: Nat
Jason: Parvati
Ozzy: Parvati
James: Parvati
Eliza: Parvati
Parvati wins. Yes, she betrayed her alliance, but they will reward her in the end for her shrewd playing after they attack her and try to make her feel bad, of course. Amanda v Parvati: Alexis: Parvati
Natalie: Parvati
Cirie: Parvati
Erik: Amanda
Jason: Parvati
Ozzy: Amanda
James: Amanda
Eliza: Parvati Parvati still wins, because she made more "relationships" was not "boring" and showed more strategizing. 
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Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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04-29-08, 02:57 PM (EST)
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6. "Jiffy Pop" |
I just DONT think Jiffy would have called Poverty this season's Amber if she does in fact win the game. But he could also have been hiding her win in plain sight.I just have the feeling that Poverty will not win for some reason. I think Ozzy, James, Jason, ELIZA, will not vote for her EVER. So she will not win. Not sure but I again, Just don't think Jiffy would have made that comment if she goes on to win? But then again I always want the person who does not win to win. With the exception of Tina (S2), and Danni from Guatamala and Sandra from Pearl Islands. 
It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.
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Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-29-08, 04:10 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
Here's how I see it, assuming KO's F2 information is correct:Assuming James gets a medical boot this upcoming episode, that leaves us with Erik, Alexis, Parvati, Cirie, Amanda, and Natalie. I'm not convinced that Alexis is the next boot, since we've seen very little of her throughout the season, while Natalie came out of nowhere last episode, and with a villain edit too. With Erik likely winning the IC, I think Cirie, Parvati, and Amanda will ally and vote out Natalie, with Erik voting with the three of them because he's not clever enough to see the upcoming pagonging. Next episode Erik loses the IC and is booted as a challenge threat. At this point his only potential ally is Alexis. Alexis goes next as the last Fan and someone with no allies. The F3 IC will be won by either Parvati or Amanda since Cirie is useless in challenges. If she wins, Amanda will keep Parvati as she has known jury enemies. And if Parvati wins, she will keep Amanda as the perceived weaker opponent. Projected boots:
7. James (medical)
6. Natalie
5. Erik
4. Alexis
3. Cirie F2: Parvati vs. Amanda
Winner: Parvati paints Amanda as a coattail rider who did little in the game and wins enough good-gameplay votes to overcome automatic no-votes from James and Ozzy. 
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-29-08, 10:16 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
I think you've pegged it Scar. For Amanda to make F2, she really will have to have her game on and win the final endurance challenge. My big question is is Amanda still in an (unseen) alliance with Cirie and Parvati and how strong is that alliance?If Amanda has been replaced by Alexis and Natalie and she saves herself and makes F2, then I think she could win. (If she can defend herself better at the final tribal council than she did in China!) She gets Eliza, Ozzy, James, Erik and probably Jason's votes. If she still is in the alliance, then Parvati could make a strong case for controlling the game from Day 1 and it would be her game to lose. The vote might depend on how bitter the people she had a hand in voting out are. If it's Parvati versus Natalie, Natalie might only get Alexis's vote. We'll find out Thursday how much game Amanda really has. 
Scarlett Oz'Hara ®
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-30-08, 08:47 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
>If Amanda has been replaced by
>Alexis and Natalie and she
>saves herself and makes F2,
>then I think she could
>win. (If she can defend
>herself better at the final
>tribal council than she did
>in China!) She gets Eliza,
>Ozzy, James, Erik and probably
>Jason's votes.
I think the three way PACT that we saw in episode #3 ("They should carry me on the chariot-type thing") has always been in effect. What Jonathan and Eliza said: "Amanda and Parvati are feeding Cirie BS" would prove to be mis-direction. It would explain Alexis' comment when leaving Airai, something like: "We're counting on Parvati. If she has a stronger bond with her old alliance, that's the game." It could fit the story.
Would James, who saw it first hand, Eliza and other fans, who probably saw an "Amanda wins China" spoiler before leaving for Micronesia, risk giving Amanda a second million?
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-30-08, 09:41 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Survivor Micronesia: End Game Discussion" |
Let's continue this discussion after we see how this week's boot goes down. 
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Das Mole 2366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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04-30-08, 04:52 PM (EST)
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18. "Das's Bizarro Speculation" |
Alright, I don't usually do much posting at Spoilers, I just do some light browsing BUT here's my two cents:The Injuries
James's finger, Alexis's ankle.
Then they say that "two Castaways' positions in the game are threatened in drastically different ways by serious injuries." Drastically different ways? I have to disagree with all the other speculation out there...if they both leave this week, how is that drastically different? I say James is Medivac'd (durr), Alexis's position is threatened in that she'll have trouble competing in the next few challenges. I think her injury plus the "jure" over her picture is leading us to believe that she'll be out, but why would they boot her if she's injured? Only seems like more of a reason to keep somebody around if you ask me. Not to mention she's been so unseen and has said so little. Unless she's going to be like Erik in China. Which I don't see happening. Since Erik wins Immunity, then the boot will be Natalie, and I'm using this as my main point of reference: 
Natalie: If Nat and Alexis stick together and sway a few people...the problem is, they won't sway anybody. Pair this with Amanda's realization that she needs Cirie and Parv, she brings them in by convincing them that Nat is untrustworthy, Nat's now last week's so-called Power Player who is now desperate, and Natalie (and Alexis, eventually) are toast. Medivac: James
Boot: Natalie Final 5
Since Jiffy says we're not done with dumb moves at TC, I have an idea. Amanda or Parv (whichever one was exiled the last time) has the Idol, it's the last HII-playable TC. Erik doesn't have Immunity, yet he's not the main target; the player with the HII is. They all try to "blindside" her, she plays the Idol, Erik goes home. Maybe not, but either way I think it's apparent that Erik's NOT "going to be OK", since he won't have "that immunity necklace around his neck." Boot: Erik Final 4
Parv is "making moves and alienating people. That's the only way to get to the end of this game, and she's doing it." She makes the Final 3. Amanda knows Cirie and Parv are her best chance to get to the Final 3. She'll pull off the Immunity win anyway and get in. Cirie's a favorite to win. She's in. Which leaves Alexis out, and a conveniently-edited token lovable 4th-placer. Boot: Alexis Final 3 and Final 2 KO says there's a Final 2, and while I don't doubt her I'll come up with an F3 FTC scenario just in case. FTC with Amanda, Cirie, Parv as the choices. Amanda did nothing, will choke, gets 1 vote. (Ozzy)
Parvati's backstabbed, bothered people, like Courtney. Bitter jury means she will receive just 2 votes. (Erik, Jason)
Cirie's dominated the game, period, just like Todd. Gets the other 4 votes, wins the game. (Eliza, James, Alexis, Natalie) In the case of a Final 2, Cirie loses immunity and gets booted as both Amanda and Parv know they stand no chance of winning against her. Amanda will get the votes that Cirie would've had, giving her 5 votes.
Parvati gets Cirie's vote, giving her 3 votes. Amanda wins. ---------
Summary F7 Medivac: James
F7 Boot: Natalie
F5 Boot: Erik
F4 Boot: Alexis
Final Tribal (F3): Amanda/Cirie/Parv, Cirie wins 1-4-2 or F3 Boot: Cirie
Final Tribal (F2): Amanda/Parv, Amanda wins 5-3 *Phew* 
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