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"Visting Survivor Fever's list"
Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 09:43 AM (EST)
 
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"Visting Survivor Fever's list" |
I looked over Survivor Fever's list, particularly the longevity of the players, and realized we have a lot of information about the course of the game from here on out, if we believe the list is accurate. I figure we can look at the list as a whole and see what it could tell us about the remaining stages of the game. So I threw together a quick SOTS for the rest of the season, to get the information together.Players who are gone pre-jury:
- Ami
- Chet
- Jonathan
- Kathy
- Tracy Merge:
- James Early jury:
- Eliza (first juror)
- Erik
- Jason Mid-Jury:
- Ozzy Mid to Late Jury:
- Alexis
- Amanda
- Cirie
- Parvati
- Natalie So, what does this tell us?
- There's only one two Airai on the pre-jury list, and both leave for medical reasons, so Airai wins every immunity challenge until the merge.
- Eliza is the first juror, and James is the only person without any jury reference in his longevity. So that leaves 9 people in the jury and finalists. Have we gotten confirmation on whether it's a final 3 or a final 2? If not, then my speculation is on a final 2, with a 7 person jury. This also tells me that James does not win the first II, since he gets voted out.
- Quote from CobySucks: Someone this season does get it "jamie style". (Burned by a fake hidden immunity idol?) - We're shown Jason in the Ep. 6 previews finding the fake idol, so Jason looks like our best candidate for getting burnt by the fake II. Quote from Jeff: A major blunder. I know when it happened that James was thinking, thank God. Since James is in an alliance with Ozzy, the would not be pleased if Ozzy made a blunder with his idol.
- Quote from Jeff Probst: I can tell you that the idols play a major part in this season. Capital letters. They do have more impact than I think they've ever had. They have more impact this season than ever before. Jeff is saying plural idols, which means that not only does the fake one get played, Ozzy plays the real one.
- Other than Eliza, all of the early merge boots are strong men. The trend of picking off the strong continues through the season.
- Quote from Jeff: The fans wanted to be sure that a fan won the game. The favorites wanted to be certain that no matter what a favorite won the game. - Have we just been given the jury votes? If so, a Favorite wins a Final 2, since a Fave vs. Fan jury would be 4-3 Faves.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 10:23 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Visting Survivor Fever's list" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-08 AT 10:24 AM (EST)It will come back to bite them. How do you figure? If the 5 women do make the final 5, it hasn't bitten them at all, it gets one of them the million which is what the game is all about. What should the women do, bow down to the men, take their lot in the game and be happy with 10th, jury spot, what? They are plotting and scheming and figuring out a way to get to the end game using what they have best to use. Not everybody can be an Ozzy that is physically strong and a provider, but if Ozzy is stupid enough not to see the future by his moves now, then he deserves the boot he will eventually get when the women out number the men. When people sit back and don't make a move in the game we complain that they have wasted space, when people do scheme and make moves we complain because they are getting rid of the strong. I learned early on that Survivor is not about how well you can survive on an island with nothing but a machete, it is about the social pecking order and how do you manipulate that. Cirie has done the best job of positioning herself for the future, like it or not the woman is playing the game.  
I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 11:00 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Visting Survivor Fever's list" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-08 AT 11:25 AM (EST)Someone this season does get it "jamie style". (Burned by a fake hidden immunity idol?) - We're shown Jason in the Ep. 6 previews finding the fake idol, so Jason looks like our best candidate for getting burnt by the fake II. Quote from Jeff: A major blunder. I know when it happened that James was thinking, thank God. Some spoilers said James makes the merge, others that he makes jury (On SF's general spoiler it says jury). If the blunder is Jason using the fake idol, and Jason makes the jury, James must be on the jury to see it happen. I think probably there will be three finalists with a jury of seven. Why would they revert to two finalists now? 
Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 12:56 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Visting Survivor Fever's list" |
If James makes the jury, then I agree that a 3 finalist/7 jury members scenario is the way it would be. This bodes well for the Favorites. We're looking at a potential F5 with 3 Favorites and 2 Fans. Let's assume that everyone the Fever says makes the jury does in fact make the jury - the remainder would be 3 Favorites, 2 Fans (James, Eliza, Ozzy, Erik, Jason). Let's also assume that Jeff's quote about Fans wanting a fan to win and Faves wanting a favorite to win is a predictor of their final votes. In a Final 3 with both fans, a Fave would win 5-2.
In a Final 3 with 1 Fan/2 Faves, it could get interesting. The Faves could all vote for the same Favorite and make it a 4-3 win, could force a tie with a 3-3-1 vote, or give it away to the Fan if they spilt 3-2-2.
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television 282 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-07-08, 07:53 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Playing the fake idol" |
What I was thinking was that, indeed, playing the fake idol like Jamie wouldn't be such a blunder. But having the fake idol and trying to blatantly use it for leverage (ala Yul in Cook Islands), waving it about in front of everyone, when some of those people know it's a fake, would be described as an epic blunder. Jason seems to have the type of personality that might pull such a show-offy stunt. I'm leaning towards that being the blunder described by JP.
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dingbat 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-08-08, 04:11 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Playing the fake idol" |
I think there must be more to this "biggest blunder." Simply playing a fake idol doesn't sound like enough of a blunder. What does sound like a major blunder would be if someone won the individual immunity necklace and gave it up to protect a tribemate, then attempted to play the fake idol and got voted out. That would be a major, big time blunder.
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accidentalparent 8 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-10-08, 04:06 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Playing the fake idol" |
Jason playing the fake HII may be worse than Jamie but I doubt that it's worse than James not playing 2 HIIs. I think maybe James watching from the Jury will witness how the girls misdirect Ozzy into thinking Amanda was in trouble and have him give up the HII to Amanda only to be booted off. Now that would be a bigger HII blunder than James' and would probably get a few chuckles from James. IMHO.
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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 01:38 PM (EST)
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12. "Ami" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-08 AT 01:49 PM (EST)Her dream gets realized and she has to watch it on TV? Ironic. James has to at least be on the Jury to see the super-duper HII (or fake HII) blunder so the camera can catch the "Thank God" reaction...... If it's a F3 we'll know it exactly when the Jury begins: 1. Because that's Eliza boot, and 2. Jeff will tell us when they will become the first member.........
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electropoprebel 34 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-07-08, 03:49 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Ami" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-08 AT 06:09 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-07-08 AT 03:55 PM (EST) lookz like thingz are going to break down this way Ep6- Jonathan medivaced/Chet voted out when Ami remains aligned with favs instead of Tracy/Chet/Erik
Ep7- Tracy then booted
Ep8- Kathy now with no allies left and a couple more Exile islands trips under her belt leaves due to mental issues, Malakal loses and Ami is 'blindsided' elimnating her over Erik
Ep9- This is where it get's tricky... If it's a F2, with 7 jurors, and they merge, lookz like Eliza and the favs band together and vote out James. Either 5-5 tie or someone else flipz from the FAVS or throw's away a vote (could see Cirie doing something like that)
Ep10- Eliza boot, for being a traded/flip-flopper; 1st juro
Ep11/12- Erik, Jason boots... False Idol played
Ep13- Alexis... I wouldnt be surprised if Ozzy play's Idol this episode and knocks Alexis out and then.
Ep14- Ozzy "blindsided" and is voted out by Parvati/Cirie/Natalie
Ep15- FINALE... F4, Amanda/Parvati/Cirie/Natalie ALSO, last night's episode foreshadowed Ozzy's inevitable rise and fall. In his confessional, he said he didnt think he was going to tell anyone about the idol, then he told not only James, but Amanda AND Parvati. Now they ALL know he has it, can ride the wave of power behind it until they realize the need to get rid of it and him from the game. Had he not told ANYONE, he could have used it when he really felt he was going or being aimed for, but now because 3 people know, he wont ever know when it's looking like it will be him. A lot of times the editors and Burnett love showing the member of the alliance who get'z knocked out talking about how he/her can trust their alliance members, which Ozzy did, saying he TRUSTS James, THINKS he can trust Amanda, and KNOWS he can trust Parvati
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ohmyheck 1919 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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03-07-08, 05:57 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Ami" |
The double-elim's are the episodes with the medivacs.
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electropoprebel 34 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-07-08, 06:07 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Ami" |
I dont think there will be any double boot episodes, but the 2 medivac's aren't going to cancel out a tribal council this season like they have in the past.
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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 06:29 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Ami" |
I think the timing of the medevacs happened to be convenient to SEG, because they were gonna have to have some kind of double boot, both to TC episodes sooner or later to get to the merge and try to get done by Mother's Day or the week after....... especially if they take one week off during March Madness......
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-07-08, 07:43 PM (EST)
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20. "Eliza as first juror" |
So, why would Eliza be a good target to be the first juror? Here's my speculation on why, and the speculation also lends itself to a 7 person jury with a final 3, meaning Eliza finishes 10th.She's not considered an immunity threat, so she must be seen as threat because of her alliances. And that makes sense because... If this group of 10 is the jury and finalists, they breakdown like this: 6 Favorites, 4 Fans
6 NuAirai, 4 NuMalaki
6 women, 4 men At merge, which alliances will stick together? Given the targeting of the strong men early on in the game, the strong men have got to be concerned that they are in the minority. The favorites have seen their numbers continue to dwindle post-switch and have got to be concerned. And NuMalaki has been strategizing like crazy, given the number of consecutive TCs they will have attended, so they've got to be concerned that their tight alliance is no longer tight. Who can these minorites target that could swing people who are different from them? For example, what woman could the men target that the women would be willing to go along with? And is it possible for all of the minority alliances to improve their situation at the same time? Yes, it is, because there are two female favorites on NuAirai - Parvati and Eliza. Getting rid of one of them would be in the best interest of so many different people for so many different reasons. The men would only be down 5-4, the Fans would only be down 5-4, and NuMalaki would only be down 5-4. Since Parvati also has the showmance alliance, while Eliza is seen as less trustworthy, Eliza becomes an easier sell. The other Faves have seen her as a target from the start, so they'd go for it. The men would see her as an easy target, since she's not protected by a showmance. So it makes sense to me that Eliza would go out in 10th place to be the first juror, with a final 3.
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electropoprebel 34 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-07-08, 09:29 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Eliza as first juror" |
So, in your scenario, Eliza goes before James, and James is definitely on the Jury?? I could see Ozzy and Amanda being able to pull Erik in to vote with them giving them a voting block of OZZY/AMANDA/JAMES/PARVATI/CIRIE & ERIK. The only problem with that is, when would James get booted then??? I have trouble seeing the couples alliance turning on each other too early in the merge, especially with some physical threats around like Erik and Jason. So either the spoilers are wrong and James goes farther than than Erik and Jason or James will get booted by a very shortlived Eliza/Fans coup.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-08-08, 10:36 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Eliza as first juror" |
Who have we seen controlling the game so far? Cirie.Think about the merge and who is left based on Cirie's perspective, who does she need to get rid of and when? At the merge her alliance has the power: Cirie, Ozzy, Amanda, James, Parvati, and recently converted Erik. On the other side of the coin you have Eliza, Jason, Alexis, Natalie. Of those 4, who is the smartest and smoothest talker that might be able to convince Erik, or any of the power couples to flip? Eliza. She is Cirie's biggest threat at the merge because she needs to insure her numbers before going after the strong ones again. She can't afford for Eliza to blow her cover as the group dwindles down and have someone flip the script on her. With Eliza gone, Cirie's next big target is Jason because he is strong and it is individual now. After that you have Cirie, Amanda, Parvati, Alexis, and Natalie that have numbers over Erik, James and Ozzy. Cirie will easily convince the women that if they have a shot of winning the money that they have got to get rid of the men and now. You can do the math from there on out. In the first episode when asked what each person brought to the Faves tribe and why they should be kept, Cirie answered "I might not be good at swimming but in today's challenge I thought I did real good" (or something like that) That final challenge of endurance (most likely) would be a longshot for Cirie to win, but we have seen Mama Kim outlast two much younger more athletic men to win final immunity before, Lill outlast younger competitors. Cirie is hungry and has tweaked her game and stepped it up a notch. I don't see anyone beating her.
I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-10-08, 08:21 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Eliza as first juror" |
This might be as good a place as any to mention that the person you're replying to is part of Survivor Fever's team of prediction pros, so I presume she's also part of the team that collects spoiler information out there for the site.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-10-08, 12:23 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Eliza as first juror" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-10-08 AT 12:27 PM (EST)KOFan: You and Survivor Fever are doing an excellent job this season and we do know that you are one of the ones responsible as you have your own prediction site at Fever. Clearly you know what's up! But, when you post at Blows now, I don't know if you are spoiling based on a sources information, or if you are speculating with your own opinion, therefore its hard to respond with a counter speculation. I would be thrilled if you could differentiate between your speculation and the sources stuff that you have! Thanks so much! and GREAT JOB! I am in agreement with those that choose not to buy into bootlists as I whole heartedly love to speculate on the vidcaps, the misdirection clues etc, and then find out late on Thursday just how well we did! 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-10-08, 03:04 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Eliza as first juror" |
Thanks, KOfan! But if you want a good read each week and a little insight as well, be sure to catch my prediction article on Thursday afternoons at Fever, if nothing else I try to entertain Wouldn't miss it! Thanks so much, and GREAT WORK!
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-10-08, 01:36 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Eliza as first juror" |
...Not everybody enjoys a season long bootlist."
Here, here! I completely agree! I enjoy spoiling and speculating away with the great peeps from these boards each week based on the previews and CBS clues that are given to us. For me, it is no fun to know everything in advance.
I remember, back in the day, when Snewser would give us the bootee, but only after 4 pm on Thursdays. Back then, we could speculate as to the challenge outcomes and bootees for the week prior to the episode and it was fun to find out whether our speculation was right on target ... or not! Nowadays, it seems as if word leaks out sooner and to more people. Everybody seems to have a Survivor connection. I don't wish to know the final outcome in advance because I find it fun to speculate and spoil the old-fashioned way. I also enjoy cheering for my favorite Survivor, whether that be Ozzy, Cirie or Joel! I do enjoy the A$$ versions better because after all, don't we all have our favorites?   
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-20-08, 07:42 AM (EST)
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38. "Eliza an II victim?" |
There's been so much talk in recent episodes about targeting Ozzy, and Eliza does seem like an out of place bootee when there are so many strong men to be targeted. But what if she wasn't the target, but the victim of Ozzy successfully playing the hidden II?Here's a scenario: Ozzy doesn't win the first II - let's say Jason does. There will be a contingent who will want to go ahead and get Ozzy out of there while they can. But who would everyone else vote for? If Jason's got immunity, he couldn't be targeted. Ozzy wouldn't want to get rid of Erik yet, since Erik's such a fan of his. Ozzy wouldn't want to get rid of James or Parvati since they had an original alliance. So the logical targets would be Alexis, Natalie, and Eliza. Since Parvati is trying for a female alliance with Alexis and Natalie, she'd try to save them, and since Eliza had been an original target of the Malakal 4, that wouldn't be too hard. So the majority of the votes go to Ozzy, but he uses the hidden idol to save himself, and Eliza goes. The main argument against that scenario is the spoiler that someone goes Jaime-style. Jason's got the fake idol, and if Ozzy plays his idol to save himself, then Jason should know his is fake. Unless going Jaime-style means playing a fake idol that you know is fake just in case it's not and it can save you.
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Erika221 23 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-24-08, 03:48 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Eliza an II victim?" |
I agree with your scenario Scarlett. With both Jonathan and supposedly Ami gone, I think that Eliza is left out of the loop. I think that even Alexis and Natalie would prefer to keep Erik around over Eliza as well, in case the newly struck deal with Parvati falls through somehow, they have a contingency. I don't know where in the world I read this, but this is PURE RUMOR or maybe I made it up in my head - don't know --- Jason gives Eliza the fake Idol and she plays it. It doesn't sound plausible in the least, given that Eliza is a bit smarter than Jason and I think that she'd figure out it wasn't real, but who knows! I am also wondering what is going on with James placement...does he make the merge, only to miss the jury? Survivor Fever seems to indicate this right now, which to me is strange and would send up flags to Ozzy that his alliance is done. Would he then team up with Erik/Jason/Eliza? Doubtful, just questions I have.
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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-08, 07:43 PM (EST)
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43. "Since we've posted here last" |
Eliza got it "Jaime style" but she knew that Jason's HII was a faker......Ozzy commited bad blunder #1 by leaving his HII at home when they blindsided him, when James thought Jason giving up immunity for goodwill and a promise of safety was dumber than himself. Jason then revealed that he didn't learn from history and was doomed to repeat it by finding the newly placed HII, and either left it at home or didn't get enough blindside signals from the TC to play it to save his bacon. James is now with a hand injury and is now listed as a possible medivac for Ep. 12, and he's been upgraded from "makes merge" to "mid jury"....... but in the reasons for boot it says after "game changing injury", (leaves game, returns for jury?) which makes me suspicious........ especially since they're about to start Day 31, which puts a time limitation on fixing whatever's wrong with James in time for him to be on the FTC jury........
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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-08, 11:27 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Since we've posted here last" |
If they originally had a F3, there would've been 7 jury members, and the only possible scenario involving a tie that wouldn't have a winner would be 3-3-1.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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Sorry...I just think that Jaime had a pretty good idea that she was not in possession of the actual idol and was using it as a last ditch effort and why not? I think the show tried to play it up to be that Jaime thought it would save her, but they couldn't do a great job of it because there wasn't enough material to support the fact she believed it was in fact real.
