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"Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

02-21-01, 02:21 PM (EST)
Click to EMail shakes%20the%20clown Click to send private message to shakes%20the%20clown Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
"Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
I'm having second thoughts about the whole Alica thing and here's why:

1. I agree w/ some other posters that it is almost too obvious...the whole fight is supposed to make us think either Kimmi or Alicia.

2. I agree w/ Superman's analysis regarding the Jeff/Alicia conversation in an early episode. They stated that Nick would be the first to go, and then later on Alicia commented that "nick was too confident in his position. Why would MB include these tidbits if they weren't relevant? Also, why would he introduce us to the Jeff/Alicia alliance early on if he is just gonna get rid of it the first time it goes to TC??

We haven't seen much about the Jeff/Alicia alliance since E#2 b/c Ogakor has been to TC for 3 straight episodes. I don't think MB would introduce us to an alliance if it was gonna explode before it even got to do any damage on the rest of the tribe....that doesn't make any sense from a "storytelling" perspective.

It may be a shortlived alliance, but I don't see it breaking up in the first vote.

I think Kimmi and Alicia are safe in this TC.

All it would take is 2 more votes to get rid of Nick..what about this scenario......Kucha loses IC, all eyes turn to weakest member Rodger...Liz, wanting to protect Rodger, makes a deal with J/A to get rid of Nick instead...there is the 4 votes.

Also, if they are allowed to "bench" some of their players during IC b/c of a numbers advantage, they could rationalize keeping Rodger by stating that he doesn't ahve to compete in any more IC's since there will be only one more IC b4 the merge.


I think we need to reconsider the Kimmi/Alicia debate and start to think about Nick as well.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... Conspiracy Jim 02-21-01 1
   RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... shakes the clown 02-21-01 2
       RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... sgoogs 02-21-01 3
 RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... Minstrel 02-21-01 4
 RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... Superman 02-22-01 5
   RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... ItzLisa 02-22-01 6
 RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towar... NewWave 02-22-01 7

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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-01, 05:43 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
There is something to the "pictures on the CBS site" logic. I believe that if a contestant does not have any outback photos of him/her on the CBS site then they are safe. This held true all through last season's show and so far this one. Currently there are only two cast members who do not have any outback pics of themselves...

Amber & ...

NICK!!!

That would lend credability to him sticking around.

Conspiracy Jim

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

02-21-01, 05:49 PM (EST)
Click to EMail shakes%20the%20clown Click to send private message to shakes%20the%20clown Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
2. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
>There is something to the "pictures
>on the CBS site" logic.
> I believe that if
>a contestant does not have
>any outback photos of him/her
>on the CBS site then
>they are safe. This
>held true all through last
>season's show and so far
>this one. Currently there
>are only two cast members
>who do not have any
>outback pics of themselves...
>
>Amber & ...
>
>NICK!!!

....so , what you're saying is that everyone except Nick and Amber is in trouble cause they HAVE outback pictures of them on the CBS site. Keep in mind that it might be because those two are the only two that haven't done anything since they got to the outback.

I don't put any weight into the "picture" theory....hell I even ahve trouble belittling the word "theory" and all it stands for by using it to describe THAT idea.
>
>That would lend credability to him
>sticking around.
>
>Conspiracy Jim


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sgoogs 32 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

02-21-01, 06:10 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
>....so , what you're saying is
>that everyone except Nick and
>Amber is in trouble cause
>they HAVE outback pictures of
>them on the CBS site.

No, you either have misunderstood Or you have not read my post
the lows and the highs will not go,, according to certain premises.

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/663.shtml

i'm not going to argue with you over whether it's nick or whoever, nor am I going to get into a debate over the meaning of the word "theory",,, we'll save that for later,,
but, what I will say is that the "show picture" theory/idea/nothing is based on the premise that CBS needs a pattern and a sense of order in the web design, this order may be a chinc in the armor. I don't beleive that it is a planted clue.

If it is true, then it's a real spoiler (read as mistake by the other side) and we can gleen from it. however, also if it is true and we have now exposed it, and they know we know it, then the "wall will be patched" and we will lose it.


>I don't put any weight into
>the "picture" theory....hell I even
>ahve trouble belittling the word
>"theory" and all it stands
>for by using it to
>describe THAT idea.
>>
>>That would lend credability to him
>>sticking around.
>>
>>Conspiracy Jim


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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"

02-21-01, 08:48 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
Not only has Nick (from what we've seen, LOL), improved his work ethic (if you call it that), but I can see this sort of 4 vote alignment. The problem is that I feel current events like Alicia going ballistic, and Kimmi continuing to whine and profess her beliefs toward the tribe are much more important. Maralyn was axed, in part, for sticking up to Kel. She became someone "in the spot light."

Granted the dynamics in Kucha are different than Ogakor, but outsiders seem to be the theme here. Alicia and Kimmi look to be "in the spot light." This takes the focus away from Nick and Rodger and even Jeff. Disharmony in the tribe. Remember Mike's "Last Supper Prayer?" Whether heartfelt or not, Mike wants the tribe to pull together. Certainly, he wants to be leader. But what's important here is how he sees the need to keep the tribe together and focused on winning challenges by being nurished. It is partly why I think Mike would vote against Kimmi. Yes, Kimmi has done as well if not better than Alicia in challenges, but just what is she eating? Is she going the way of Mitchel, only slower?

Finally, the real question is how much are the Kuchas thinking about the merger? The more they do, the more of a target people like Nick and Alicia are under suspicion. The less they do, the more they revert back as if it were E1 or 2. Ogakor got caught up in tribal conflict and ignored the merger consequences as Jerri hit Kel in E2 and is at odds with Keith. She is poison when it comes to tribal unity for the sake of winning challenges. While we aren't that far from the merger, now, I see Kucha more in the "tribal" mode than looking toward the merger. And, after E5, only one tribe will be forced to reduce it's numbers while one will stay the same. While I think this is important, Kucha may not be looking at it that way. And if not, Kimmi is a very viable target.

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Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

02-22-01, 01:10 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
>All it would take is 2 more votes to get rid of Nick..what >about this scenario......Kucha loses IC, all eyes turn to >weakest member Rodger...Liz, wanting to protect Rodger, makes a >deal with J/A to get rid of Nick instead...there is the 4 votes.

I'm thinking along the same lines Shakes.

One other scenario I have puts Rodger as the swing vote. Depending on how much the Kimmi/Alicia argument affects everyone (I don't think it will) voting may go off like this.

Nick - Rodger
Mike - Kimmi
Jeff/Alicia - Nick
Liz/Kimmi - Mike
Rodger - ?

I know it's common knowledge that Liz/Rodger won't vote against each other, BUT it's never been said that they will vote in block. It just doesn't seem like they would play that way.

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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-01, 12:24 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-22-01 AT 12:28 PM (EST)

>Depending on how much the
>Kimmi/Alicia argument affects everyone (I
>don't think it will)

They want us to think, that Kimmi's going. I think she is too, but here's where I totally contradict myself and further elaborate on Superman's point above....

They want us to think Kimmi's the target here because of the disagreement. But twice before in S1, someone else got voted off after an argument. Gervase made the "women aret stupider than cows" comment, and Joel wound up being voted off. Towards the end when Sue and Kelly were at each other's throats and no more Pagongs were around to pick off, Sean wound up getting the boot. Focus is on Kimmi here - is it just to distract us, or is she a goner? If Kucha goes to TC, I think Kimmi's probably outta there. But part of me also thinks Ogakor could go to TC again - they're out numbered and have very little food going on. Guess we'll see in seven and a half hours!

****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)

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NewWave 20 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"

02-22-01, 03:05 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Now, I'm starting to lean towards NICK over Alicia..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-22-01 AT 03:20 PM (EST)

Nick's got my vote currently. Here's why:

They have made Nick's laziness a small theme aided by Nick making comments about how he does 'busy work' to give the appearance that he is contributing. Jeff and Alicia, at one point, both felt that Nick should be the next one voted off and I don't think much has changed that. No member of Kucha has voted for any of the current Kucha members. They have had almost two weeks to bond w/out a TC. My belief is that as more time passes, giving them more time to think, they are more likely to vote the 'outsiders.' A vote for someone in the spotlight is reactionary vote. Let's look at the individuals...

Elizabeth: Nothing has been shown of her feelings toward the other members outside of Rodger. She has no affinity toward Nick and I see her going along w/ any existing alliance against him.

Kimmi: Kimmi has made somewhat of a deal about doing work for the tribe and, while most of her thoughts are concerns about herself, she has had adequate time to notice any lack of effort on Nick's part and build up some resentment. "Why am I so worried about getting voted off when this guy doesn't do half the work I do?"

Alicia & Jeff: They have shown a willingness to vote just about anyone off, but I don't believe MB would make a small theme out of the their alliance if it didn't pan out in some form (no matter how short lived it may be). Their initial "reactionary" tendancy was toward Michael, but it didn't take long for hunger to set in and Michael produced. Alicia may have begun to bond some w/ Nick (and her fight w/ Kimmi may be a last ditch effort to sway votes for Kimmi), but in the end it's probably too late.

Rodger: Probably the most likable individual thus far. He seems to have a good heart and I don't believe he feels negatively toward any members. His vote is very likely to be a vote about contribution to the tribe.

Michael: More worried about being in the spotlight himself more than anything else. Obviously, production in the tribe is important to him. He'll go along w/ any other votes toward Nick.

I don't believe it is entirely impossible for Nick to get booted in an unanimous decision.

We have seen zero talk from Nick about where he may vote, his thoughts on his status w/ the tribe, or his thoughts on anyone else's status. I can't think of another member of Kucha in which this holds true. My belief is that we haven't seen this because he simply has not made any comments on these topics (he is a real outsider) and/or they are not relevant (he is voted off).

The Alicia/Kimmi spat is too obvious. Alicia wouldn't take this risk of being in the spotlight by yelling at another member unless she was confident in the knowledge that much of the tribe already had their mind set to vote for another. 'Course...she ain't the sharpest tool in the shed.

Just my thoughts...this post was way too long

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