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Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-06, 05:53 PM (EST) "Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." Here's the possible scenario as I misdirection-inspired understand it from the series and the preview trailer. 1. Aitu is now a tightly-bonded alliance of four. No one's going anywhere. 2. The merge has to happen at some point. Things are already bad enough with some jury members never having really gotten to know (even briefly) the potential Final Two. 2a. The latest the merge should happen is eight. Nine -- next week -- is a possibility. 3. Yul's got the idol. 4. Yul is a major target for Raro at any merge vote. Ozzy would be the secondary target if Yul had Immunity, or people suspected he had the idol. 5. Numbers are good. So let's say the tribes merge at nine. Aitu is in the minority and looking at the wrong side of the Pagonging. Yul has the idol, but -- whoopie. Yul has the idol. It's good once. Yippee skippy. Maybe he'll get rid of one Raro on the bounce, and then they dump him for real the next week. In fact, they could save him for last, use the bounce to get rid of the most disliked member of their tribe, and move to Final Four from there after getting rid of him on Take Two. What Yul is holding is an extra three days that few people know for sure about and several people suspect. Last Aitu Out. All things considered, it's the classic 'who cares' position. Or... ...Yul tells Ozzy about the idol. And while he's at it, he tells Sundra about the idol. Becky's already covered. The plan is simple. Find out who Raro is voting for. Say if they think Yul has the idol, they're going to go to Ozzy on primary. Pass the idol to Ozzy. Boing! Aitu controls the bounce with the minority vote. The tribes are now tied four to four. A tie may not sound like much, but it's a major improvement over a Pagonging: you have a second chance, and maybe your chosen one can beat the tiebreaker. Maybe the idol will reset to Exile Island and you could try the same stunt twice. It's a chance -- and a chance is better than a slow, steady elimination of your alliance. You just need to be sure of who Raro is voting for. And you have to be certain that the person you're passing the idol to won't buy their way into a new alliance with it. Right now, Aitu seems close enough that it's worth taking the chance. This works even better if the tribes merge at eight. In that case, the bounce doesn't create the tie, it beats it -- and the Pagonging starts on Raro's side. Congratulations to Aitu: stay together, hope to avoid inconvenient Immunity wins on the other side, and you're Final Four. But you need to have trust. You need to have confidence, and believe that the best way to save yourself is by saving someone else. You have to give up Immunity. Terry couldn't do it. Burton had a spare and wasn't at risk. Heidi and Jenna -- hah. One person has been able to pull that trick off to date, and that season is taking place somewhere very close, yet very far away... Does Yul have the courage? Can Ozzy be trusted that far? Would Becky and Sundra sell them out? One way to find out. Let's see if anyone has the guts. Opinions? Speculation? The mandatory 'are you insane?' Posted to Spoilers as that's where most of the heavy speculation seems to wind up. Move to Fanatics if needed? Regardless, Alex did it first. I say Yul owes her a nickel.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... mommamia 11-17-06 1  RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... Scarlett O Hara 11-18-06 2    RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... dfi 11-19-06 3        RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... Scarlett O Hara 11-19-06 4            RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... xwraith27 11-19-06 5            RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... dfi 11-19-06 6                RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... ktchong 11-20-06 8                    RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... Georgianna 11-21-06 10        Fake-outs and fake idols. Estee 11-20-06 7            RE: Fake-outs and fake idols. wsmith_1972 11-20-06 9                I've just realized an irony ktchong 11-23-06 14            RE: Fake-outs and fake idols. Chez 11-23-06 16                RE: Fake-outs and fake idols. guerra1942 11-27-06 20                    RE: Fake-outs and fake idols. katethegreat 11-27-06 23  RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, ... chessmaster 11-22-06 11  Jonathan finally becomes a PLAYER Woogie 11-22-06 12    RE: Jonathan finally becomes a PLAY... forehead 11-22-06 13  It's bad karma to take the Asian ma... ktchong 11-23-06 15    RE: It's bad karma to take the Asia... ktchong 11-25-06 17        RE: It's bad karma to take the Asia... Estee 11-25-06 18        RE: It's bad karma to take the Asia... Loree 11-25-06 19            RE: It's bad karma to take the Asia... Brownroach 11-27-06 21  Raro think Adam has the idol ktchong 11-27-06 22

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mommamia 114 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-17-06, 08:53 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." According to TV Guide the merge is confirmed for this week as well do the latest pictures of the merge feast. Also, according to the Survivor website Yul does share that he has the HII with more than one person. Has to be Jonathan and Ozzy for starters and maybe Sundra.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 11-18-06, 07:37 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." Thanks for posting this thread -- it's worthy of its own discussion in its own thread. Yes, we see Yul telling Ozzy about the Idol and I think we see the birth of a Plan! Next, we see a smiling Yul tell Jonathan he wants to realign with him. Most likely, he may also tell Jonathan that he has the HII. We do not know that at this time. Now what will it take for Jonathan to swing back with the Aitu's? And, in my opinion, we will indeed see Jonathan swing back with the Aitu's at TC to vote off Nate.   Top

dfi 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-19-06, 00:22 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." LAST EDITED ON 11-19-06 AT 00:35 AM (EST) I think Yul telling Jonathan that he has the hii is completely genius. If Jonathan is trustworthy, this means that they have added an extra person to their alliance, making it 5 against 4. If Jonathan is not trustworthy, Jonathan will go back to the Raro tribe and tell everybody that Yul has the hii thereby causing the Raro 5 to vote for Ozzy. Yul will then give Ozzy the hii and thus insuring somebody from the Raro tribe will get booted off. If Jonathon sticks with aitu, he votes with them meaning somebody in Raro is going home. If Jonathan betrays them, ozzy has the hii meaning somebody on Raro is going home. Either way aitu wins.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 11-19-06, 07:08 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." Welcome to the boards, dfi!! I hope you'll continue to stick around and add your two cents! After all, I agree with you completely! That's exactly what I think will happen! Either way, a Raro is going home on Thanksgiving night and I happen to think it will be Nate. And, fwiw, I think it's a brilliant plan and I can't wait to see it unfold!   Top

xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 11-19-06, 07:58 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." Agreed. Nate or Adam with the remote possibility of Jonathan. If Aitu's smart, they'll get rid of Adam first before Nathan unless Adam wins immunity.   Top

dfi 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-19-06, 11:07 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." LAST EDITED ON 11-19-06 AT 11:15 AM (EST) Thanks.. I read a couple of survivor forums and there's some crazy speculation going on. Some guy speculated that Yul gives the hii to Jonanthan, but instead of giving the real hii, he gives a fake one. That makes no sense to me, plus I'm sure it would be really easy to spot a fake hii. Also, it wouldn't be in keeping with the way Yul plays the game. Telling Jonathan about the hii and then giving it to Ozzy would still keep Yul completely up front with everybody. I   Top

ktchong 106 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-20-06, 07:36 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." LAST EDITED ON 11-21-06 AT 11:59 AM (EST) Yul gives a hidden immunity idol to Jonathan -- a two-fold strategy: PLAN A: -Yul without the immunity idol = become less of an obvious thread to Jonathan -The Raro majority becomes Jonathan's bigger thread, because Raro can flush out Jonathan's hidden immunity idol. -Jonathan keeps his precious idol to himself, so he doesn't tell any Raro about it. It's HIS precious idol now. -Jonathan becomes paranoid of Raro because of his precious idol: "My prrrrrecious..." -Yul manipulates Jonathan into believing his best interest is to reduce Raro's number, so Raro can't flush out Jonathan's precious idol. -So, Jonathan's best interest = Aitu's best interest = to diminish Raro's number -Jonathan votes with Aitu to wear down Raro's number Jonathan will do whatever that is in his own best interest. He is not going to vote with Aitu to redeem himself or for some mushy reason. He's in the game for the million dollars, and he will do what is best for himself. BUT... Yul gives a FAKE hidden immunity idol to Jonathan, which brings us to: PLAN B: -Jonathan thinks he has the idol and Yul no longer has the idol. -Yul's hidden immunity idol becomes really hidden. -Yul can use the hidden idol to blindside Raro when necessary, a backup plan against Jonathan flipping again. -If Jonathan flips again, Jonathan, thinking that Yul no longer has the idol, will rally Raro to target the biggest Aitu threats: Yul or Ozzy. -That takes the guesswork out of to who Yul should transfer the hidden idol. i.e., if Raro suspects Yul has the immunity idol, then Raro's target will become less predictable. So, Yul have both bases covered: -If Jonathan votes with Aitu, then great! Yul keeps his hidden idol for another turn. (Plan A) -If Jonathan votes with Raro, then Yul and Ozzy will use the hidden idol to truly blindside Raro, and at least the odds will even out between Aitu and Raro. (Plan B) After Yul and Ozzy are done with using Jonathan, they will toss away Jonathan when Aitu secures at least a two-vote advantage over Jonathan. At Tribal Council, Jonathan will be stunned when he receives the most votes and then finds out that his precious is not so precious after all. Give someone a fake idol -- a simple trick, but effective and has a much deeper complexity. That's what I think will happen.   Top

Georgianna 514 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-21-06, 00:57 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." LAST EDITED ON 11-21-06 AT 06:06 AM (EST) ktchong, You know, this has been a season of 'firsts' that must have caused these Survivors to question just which, if any, of the show's traditions were still bankable. For instance: if they could count on there being only one HII. And didn't I read somewhere that Jonathan is purported to 'make Survivor history'? So, wouldn't it be absolutely rich if, in an audacious emulation of another memorable Pisces' Grand Lie (the dead grandmother who wasn't), this Jonathan (perhaps not Cook Islands' smartest player but certainly its most ambitious) fashioned from a great performance and a few tropical odds and ends the 'second' HII that never was ... Can you imagine the delicious mayhem that would ensue (among players and editors alike) when his possession of this 'surprise twist' was revealed to his own 'select few' tribemates by the actor? Yul's reaction alone would be worth the price of admission. But, given the abysmally high burst rate of my balloons, this will, of course, not happen. However, I can always hope that your scenario (or a recognizable version of it) will ... G   Top

Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-06, 12:28 PM (EST) 7. "Fake-outs and fake idols." Heh. Well, it would save a lot of work on making Raro guess... Yeah, that's a 'blessed if you do, damned if you don't' play where Jonathan is concerned. Brilliant -- great work for your first post. And as for making a fake idol -- it's possible. When people generally think about idols, they don't picture beat-up old compasses. All Yul needs is something a little more worship-worthy, and it'll pass. After all, only one other person has seen the thing so far. And that's not Jonathan. The main problems are going to be finding the time and materials to make the thing -- and making it in isolation, if it has to be done after Raro shows up.   Top

wsmith_1972 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-20-06, 08:50 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Fake-outs and fake idols." LAST EDITED ON 11-20-06 AT 08:57 PM (EST) Telling Jon would be a bad idea. If he doesn't know then raro will vote for either Yul or Ozzy. If one of them wins the II, then the whole group is safe. If they tell Jon then it puts both Becky and Sundra in danger because they could go after one of them. The only reason to tell Jon is if neither Yul or Ozzy win II. Then you could threaten to vote for him and the HII could be in any of their hands. I like the idea of giving a fake II to Jon in exchange for him voting for them. But Yul seems to be too honest to do something like that. Maybe even give him the fake idea and tell raro about it...hahaha   Top

ktchong 106 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-23-06, 03:22 PM (EST) 14. "I've just realized an irony" LAST EDITED ON 11-23-06 AT 03:27 PM (EST) Jonathan is the chicken man who thinks he's outsmarted the Asian man by taking the Asians' chicken. After he takes the chicken, he doesn't want anyone else (especially Raro) to screw with his chicken. You know how Jonathan will not forgive the other White players if they screw with the chicken he takes from the Asian man. Unfortunately for Jonathan, he never really has the chicken. So this season is really about the chicken man and his chicken: "I can forgive her but I don't have to because she screwed with my chickens," which was revealed in the very first episode.   Top

Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 11-23-06, 07:21 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Fake-outs and fake idols." I think the most devious way to trick someone with a fake hidden II would be if right after someone finds it, they fashion a fake idol from other items on Exile Island, put that item back in the box along with any written material, and rebury it. Then someone else would later "find" it and would think they actually had the hidden idol. Imagine how much fun it would be at tribal council when they were voted off, produced the fake idol thinking they were safe, and then Jeff rejected the fake idol.   Top

guerra1942 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-27-06, 04:15 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Fake-outs and fake idols." maybe somebody already said this and i missed it, but isn't it possible that yul did hide a fake idol and adam found it? that would explain why adam and candice were both so positive that "yul doesnt have the idol". first time posting, so please be kind.   Top

katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 11-27-06, 09:38 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Fake-outs and fake idols." Great ideas - Yul should have done the re-burying as noted AND it would explain Candice's opinion; if it was done, they are covering it up! NOT FAIR NOT FAIR If not, you should definately be a contestant or a consultant to one . . .   Top

chessmaster 25 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-22-06, 09:02 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Fiction becomes reality: Yul, Ozzy and the idol." I think the reason that the idol was previewed this episode could simply be that it finally gets played (and thus they cannot talk about it afterwards) Ozzy wins immunity, Yul gets targetted .. without revealing to anybody on Raro, else they wouldn't target .. and Jonathan threatens to switch but does not. The Aitu's probably want Candice off first, but they decide that she would be the easiest to beat in a fire starting tie-breaker, so first they target Nate (deciding he is biggest threat) and then save Candice for a 4-4 vote. Would not be a surprise if Raro would toss all their votes at Ozzy or Yul, and that one of them handily beats Candice making fire.   Top

Woogie 135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-22-06, 09:32 AM (EST) 12. "Jonathan finally becomes a PLAYER" Jon is at the fifth in Raro and still the same even he switch to Aitu. So when Jon is approached by Yul and Know he has the idol think od a scheme that will make he's way into F4 in Raro and get rid of HII. My speculation is that Ozzy wins immunity/Nate comes second. 5 Raro vote for Yul 4 Aitu vote for Nate and Nate is off by HII.   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 11-22-06, 10:08 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Jonathan finally becomes a PLAYER" "Jon is at the fifth in Raro and still the same even he switch to Aitu." I think Jonathan MAY think that he has a better chance at being the swing vote at final 5 with Aitu than with Raro. So, he might think that he can side with either Yul/Becky or Ozzy/Sundra to go the final 3. He might think that he has no such option with Raro. Hence, his motivation to flip again. Leading to the ep 11 title "You're a rat"... forehead   Top

ktchong 106 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-23-06, 04:27 PM (EST) 15. "It's bad karma to take the Asian man's chicken" LAST EDITED ON 11-23-06 AT 04:30 PM (EST) Jonathan was the chicken man who thought he'd outsmarted the Asian man by taking the Asian man's chicken. Unfortunately, the chicken slipped out of his hands. Jonathan just couldn't forgive other Raro for screwing with the chicken he took from the Asian man. Jonathan will take another chicken from the Asian man. This time, Jonathan will make sure that no Raro can screw with his chicken again. Unfortunately for him, the chicken he thinks he has will ultimately slip out of his hands again. It's bad karma to take the Asian man's chicken. This season is all about the Chicken Man and his chicken: "I can forgive her but I don't have to because she screwed with my chickens," which was foreshadowed by the title of the very first episode. Who will have the chicken in the end? In the second episode, only two tribes have chickens. Puka and the original Aitu. So, maybe only members from those two original tribes will have the chicken in the end. (Guess who caught the chickens in Puka and Aitu?) That's what I think.   Top

ktchong 106 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-25-06, 02:45 PM (EST) 17. "RE: It's bad karma to take the Asian man's chicken" LAST EDITED ON 11-25-06 AT 03:14 PM (EST) Well, Yul didn't use a fake idol after all. I could have found a way to counter Yul's idol. If I was Jonathan and Yul had threatened me to vote with him or go home, I would go back to Raro and tell Raro to vote for Sundra. Then Aitu's number would be come down to 3, and there would not be a bounce. Then again, it would be impossible for me to convince Raro about the possibility of Yul having the immunity idol. Raro's epic stupidity is beyond my expectation. I underestimated the sheer magnitude of their idiocy.   Top

Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-25-06, 05:29 PM (EST) 18. "RE: It's bad karma to take the Asian man's chicken" I underestimated the sheer magnitude of their idiocy. Don't worry about it. You had plenty of company. The Adam Theory: 'If I can't do it, no one can do it.' So apparently no one can use words like 'apparently' any more.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-25-06, 07:04 PM (EST) 19. "RE: It's bad karma to take the Asian man's chicken" I am not sure that Jonathon really wanted to stay with Raro at all. He could have been more forceful and told them that Yul did have the HI and that he had seen it. Then told them to vote our Becky or Sundra. But he just used the hypothetical and said what if Yul had the HI. Part of me thinks Jonathon wanted an excuse to flip. Now he feels he can blame them for not knowing he was right. He can tell himself that Raro had their chance and were too stupid so he is free to flip. But if he had really wanted to stay with Raro he could have explained what happened with Yul. But he would rather keep that to himself and flip. I think he really liked Yul's idea about the F2.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-27-06, 05:48 PM (EST) 21. "RE: It's bad karma to take the Asian man's chicken" Right. Jonathan was completely exasperated with the Raros. He wants to play strategically, and in order to do that you have to connect with others who see the value in playing strategically as well. Raro appeared hopeless in that regard. Yul recognized that quality in Jonathan, since he possesses it himself. Which made it that much more tempting for Jonathan to go with Yul. Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl   Top

ktchong 106 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-27-06, 07:35 PM (EST) 22. "Raro think Adam has the idol" LAST EDITED ON 11-28-06 AT 02:26 PM (EST) Both Nate and Parvati says in Survivor Live clips that they believe Adam has the idol. Adam has deliberately misled Nate and Parvati. Candice knows Adam does not have the idol, but after the merge she lied to Sundra and said Adam had the idol. Candice tried to use that to persuade Sundra to flip over to Raro, (i.e. "We have the number, we have the idol. You can join the Dark Side, but you have to give us your vote of confidence.") Of course, Sundra did not give Candice the time of day BECAUSE Yul had already told Sundra he had the idol earlier! When Candice was lying to Sundra, Sundra must have been thinking: "B!tch, first you betrayed me and left me for dead. Now you are lying to me straight in my face." Amazing. Yul had anticipated that Candice would lie about the idol to undermine the Aitu 4 alliance, and he preemptively took out Candice's opportunity to do so. Yul has again outwitted, outplayed and outclassed Candice.   Top

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