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"S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection"
KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 07:18 AM (EST)
 
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"S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Feeling vulnerable, Ozzy proves his worth by catching a feasts of fish. As the only member left from his original tribe, would this be enough to keep him safe?He is safe, this is misdirection. One tribe finds itself divided: men against women. Can they find a way to pull together as a team and work as a team or will their division be their downfall? As shown in the previews this is NuRarotonga. On the Billy's friends list on MySpace we have Adam, Parvati, and Jenny. None of them were on his original tribe, so is it loser lodge for one of them this week? When Candice returns from Exile Island and is questioned about why she thinks she was sent away, she plays dumb and avoids discussing her ties to the other tribe. Will her tribe's growing suspicions put her in jeopardy or has she talked her way out of trouble? They have 2 misdirection clues for each tribe and no episode title yet. This has got to be a double boot. Ozzy is mentioned as a potential, and now so is Candice. Interesting because Cao Boi is shown bothering Aitu again. If Candice (who is listed as a Billy friend though that could be from the love at first sight) is the boot, that really weakens Jonathan/Yul/Becky and gives strength to Cao Boi and Ozzy. Not sure yet what way this mis-direction leads. J.P.'s dominance and controlling demeanor around camp angers some of the women in his tribe, will this behavior put a target on his back? Taking the first clue of lazy men at NuRarotonga one step further and calling out JP. I'll have to think about this one a bit.  
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 08:02 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Aitu:
Feeling vulnerable, Ozzy proves his worth by catching a feasts of fish. As the only member left from his original tribe, would this be enough to keep him safe?
AND
When Candice returns from Exile Island and is questioned about why she thinks she was sent away, she plays dumb and avoids discussing her ties to the other tribe. Will her tribe's growing suspicions put her in jeopardy or has she talked her way out of trouble?Both will probably be fine.
Candice's time is approaching soon and if this is a double boot episode I predict this will be her week to go.
However, I think one more week will pass before things are accelerated to multiple-boot episodes.
What is interesting about this is it sounds as if Canidice will be accused of being in an alliance with Parvati and Adam. (This will not bode well for her if people become concerned about her "numbers". May even be enough to get Jessica and CaoBoi to switch sides for a TC.)
Raro:
One tribe finds itself divided: men against women. Can they find a way to pull together as a team and work as a team or will their division be their downfall?
AND
J.P.'s dominance and controlling demeanor around camp angers some of the women in his tribe, will this behavior put a target on his back?
Granted, JP's dominance and the difference in work ethics between the sexes will be "target" worthy.
However, Billy's List includes Adam as the only male from Raro to get the boot but, in order for that to happen JP's gotta dodge a big bullet.
Or Adam's gotta do something twice as horrible to the women in order for them to band them together to boot Adam.
But if JP has a target so does someone else.
That someone has to be either one of the lazy men, doubtful, or one of the women. That leaves Jenny, Parvati, Cristina, Rebecca or Stephannie to be the opposing vote. So rather then Adam going this week... (Which is still completely possible) I'm suggesting there is a crack in the "womens alliance" that is exposed by the time TC rolls around.
The misdirection is also that there is a split in the tribe down gender lines. When after all is said and done, one or more of the women are going to vote out another woman. Of those women...only Jenny and Parvati are on Billy's List.
So with that under consideration, I would have to point my finger at Parvati.
She's a challenge weakness and she's already been shown playing her only survivor card...flirting.
Would Adam, step in to save her? Doubtful, when he still has Candice. And his new guy friends.
Jenny: Possible but I can't see it. Not yet. She needs somewhat of a story, right? But it could be her.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 08:26 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-29-06 AT 08:27 AM (EST)This is the second time Candace has to explain herself about links to other tribes, it cannot be good. Ozzy and especially Sundra will try to gain favor, I suspect. The power triumvirat can decide on any of the 5 others to vote out. We heard something in the recap that hadn't made the first episode when Jeff was heard saying: "Aitu showing no interest in this challenge." This is stronger than just "Having a Holiday." Can it be that everyone knows Aitu threw the challenge and are making them pay? I avoided reading who is on the list of friends of Billy but JP wouldn't be on it even if they spend the next month together. 
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 09:07 PM (EST)
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6. "Innertube" |
"This is the second time Candace has to explain herself about links to other tribes, it cannot be good."Indeed, Candice is not for long in this game. Her 'on exile island' confessional is on the Insider (I guess now called Innertube). A large part of her interview is about having friends on NuRaro; being glad she still has friends who kept her away from TC; being by far the youngest on NuAitu; not having much of a connection with NuAitu except Becky; her (pre-TC) worst case scenario would be a Becky boot which she did not expect; her future 'strategy' is to stay UTR, work, and try to make it to the merge. I think Becky might keep Candice around for another TC though (simply numberwise). "Can it be that everyone knows Aitu threw the challenge and are making them pay?" Becky has a long confessional on the Insider which is almost all strategy. She wanted to split up Ozzy and Cecilia; and with an almost wicked smile she explained that it was better to keep Ozzy as he was bringing in fish... The votes on Insider are also telling: Becky is all business. I haven't seen such an all business attitude in Survivor since, well, maybe S5 Brian. If Becky can manage the 'princess perceptions' she can go all the way. (Not to mention that she has a big brother with an idol in her pocket.) forehead
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 09:48 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Innertube" |
>Becky is all business.
>I haven't seen such an
>all business attitude in Survivor
>since, well, maybe S5 Brian. Not many can play Brian's game, it would be something to watch! >Becky...has
>a big brother with an
>idol in her pocket.) Marvelously well put!
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 12:35 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-29-06 AT 12:36 PM (EST)When Candice returns from Exile Island and is questioned about why she thinks she was sent away, she plays dumb and avoids discussing her ties to the other tribe. Will her tribe's growing suspicions put her in jeopardy or has she talked her way out of trouble? I think Jon may be the catalyst to get out Candice. Remember he was shown when they returned to camp after IC asking "Why do you think Candice got chosen?" They (ie Yul) all seemed to say it was bc she was seen as weak. But I'm sure Jon realizes that it could be bc she was being protected by Parvati/Adam. Jon was never in with these 3 so he may just cut those ties and go with Flicka/CB for now. Flicka will most likely be on board bc she never liked her. But will Yul/Becky? He will have to convince them bc it would be too dangerous for Jon to use Ozzy et al now. Or he could just get wind of Ozzy et al wanting to vote Candice and convinces Becky/Yul to be unified as a tribe. I think Yul will agree to let her go and convince Becky of this.
J.P.'s dominance and controlling demeanor around camp angers some of the women in his tribe, will this behavior put a target on his back?
KO for now, I think this is misdirection. JP was the strongest male (other than Yul who Brad could not pick) Brad picked him first over Nate Ozzy and Adam. I think his bossiness will be his ultimate downfall and probably at the hands of Cristina Rebecca and Steph but not for awhile closer to merge. 
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-06, 01:39 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
As we know, there are 2 misdirection clues for each tribe. I have decided based on the vid-cap evidence that there are definately two challenges this week and so therefore they won't have time to have 2 challenges, an exile, and pre-TC strategy talk plus two TC's. This has got to also be a one boot episode.We also know from the vid-caps that the likely winner of the IC is NuAitutaki. rule the roost, to be in charge or control; dominate Ruling the roost is the episode title and it refers to one of the misdirection points: J.P.'s dominance and controlling demeanor around camp angers some of the women in his tribe, will this behavior put a target on his back? Sometimes the episode title is directly linked with the boot, and sometimes it is linked to the person that is in part responsible for getting the bootee evicted. I don't think that a man goes this week, if so it would be JP. The reason I think it is a woman is that it isn't quite time yet to start getting rid of the men. I think Parvati is a long term player and needs the men around in order to flirt and manipulate. The target might come down to Cristina vs JP. JP is dominating the tribe and pulling an Ozzy. Cristina was not too appreciative when Ozzy became overbearing, I doubt that she will like this behavior from JP. She talks to the women and Steph and Rebecca who have been through a gender war once, agree. Maybe they also talk to Nate to bring him in since he is close to the Hiki's and Parvati, Parvati acts like she will agree but is the swing vote, she really has no interest in getting rid of her puppets yet. Remember Ozzy's confessional in episode 1 "I think we have the strongest tribe of any of them out here, so as long as we stay fed and happy with each other then we'll be able to stay strong." Well, they haven't really done either have they? I think that coupled with some other quotes were key editing glimpses into the longevity or lack thereof of the original Aitu tribe. Billy got the boot because he was sick and not pulling his weight, it caused a major rift in the tribes happiness factor too by throwing the challenge. Next the tribes merge and 2 hispanics on each tribe. Cecilia gets booted because she is sick. Apparantly the original Aitu's are not "staying strong." If Cristina is also sick, she could be the one that Nate is referring to when he says "If someone doesn't want to be here I'm not going to keep them here." She could be totally sick of the game too. Looks like a good chance that NuRaro is going to lose both challenges, JP gets all bossy and Cristina can't get a word in edgewise, she is sick and not feeling like sticking around anymore. JP and the men want the tribe to stay strong so they need to target a woman. JP knows his former tribe doesn't have numbers anyway and is willing to hang with his new guys. I think Cristina goes home this week.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-06, 02:11 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
GREAT ANALYSIS KT!!You have convinced me. I was not really comfy with any of my choices in my mind this week. I really think you have something with the OldAitu tribe going by the wayside sooner rather than later(exc for AnnakinOzzy. Although I think Adam is first guy to go from NuRaro and then JP based on Adam's flat edit and laziness. when a double boot comes I think Candice/Adam will go as a "couple" either next week or the next... Any Cristina getting her ouster at the hands of Oscar's sidekick fits into my editing analysis anyway akin to Marg/Judd from S11
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-06, 06:45 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
I love your rationale, KO and I'm thrilled you are starting the discussion. One thing that keeps stumping me is the fact that there are still 3 Hiki's on the nuRaro tribe, while all other tribes are less. The Cece boot was directed at busting up the old Aitu, and neutralizing Ozzy. I would think that the nuRaro's would want to bust up the three strong Hiki's...just thinking outloud. If they lose 2 challenges back to back, then the weak link could be targeted and Steph could qualify in that regard as well. Found it very surprising that Billy and CeCe both noted feeling sick at the end...makes me wonder if they were both "ready to go", as Nate may be noting that someone else is feigning illness and may be "ready to go"... 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-06, 08:58 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
You bring up some good points regarding Nate, and I do agree with those assessments...that Nate already knows how tight the women are and it's his second chance with the mix up. BUT, are the women reminded that there are still two female Hiki's left, perhaps they would want to break them up and neutralize Rebecca, the strongest female? Do the men want to zone in on the Hiki females?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-06, 10:38 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Does that make it less likely that a young guy gets voted out? Does it imply that one of the "somewhat older women" gets voted out? Yes, I think it does! I feel somewhat strongly that the lazy boys are misdirection...for whatever my opinion is worth... fp
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 00:57 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Me too!
Just because Parvati says the laziness doesn't fly with her, why should that have any bearing on voting strategy? We know her game strategy. Cozy up to Nate, Brad, JP, having already made friends with Adumb. So we need some misdirection sound byte that makes it sound like she's through with the guys.That group of women will vote Parvati out first; she's the youngest and the sorority girl. The rest of the women have a more serious mature attitude. Actually I think the guys will annoy her more knowing she can't afford to vote them out and has to deal with the work ethic some other way. Any one of the other women could become a target.
Cristina could say the wrong thing; so could Rebekka.
Steph seems to have a good hold on her tongue, but she could easily be perceived as weakest (or sick).
The Hiki women should indeed be broken up.
Rebekka's athleticism could save her or kill her ...
Jenny is small and maybe not a huge asset, although having a small girl ought to help them win the stretcher challenge. It's not a bad thing to have a tiny woman, IF they realize that.
I think Jenny is safe this time; there are other targets. Overall I think Steph or Cristina, but the fact is we won't know until the episode starts how these women are getting along in the new tribe. We saw almost nothing of them last time. Crapshoot really.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 01:25 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Added thought:It seems to me Parvati, Adam, and Candice have a strong alliance. They want to reunite after the merge. This alliance was kicked into Insider so the general viewer doesn't know if it's still a go. I think this favors the alliance's future. Parvati & Adam need to have each others' backs in this camp. If the women start in on the brawn, even if they target JP, can Adam be long for the game? No, she needs to be part of his group. Re Cristina:
I wish I knew what her deal is with JP. When she sees Cece gone, either she will feel like Aitu is dead for her or that she needs JP more than before. It's a tough one. I doubt she thinks she has a future with JP & Ozzy if they get back together. She may decide, screw it, I'm with these women. In which case she could easily confront JP about his attitude because they've had tension before. That could bite her.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 10:57 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
I also agree with you and OFG that the lazy boys are misdirection, in the sense that it's not going to get any of the boys booted. We have two different irksome elements though: the laziness factor and the JP control freak factor. We know Cristina doesn't like control freaks but she's already used to similar behavior from Ozzy and JP was his buddy so she shouldn't be surprised. But we never heard Cristina complain about Billy's laziness. We know Stephannie doesn't like laziness since she complained about Sekou taking too many breaks. She also didn't think Sekou was an effective leader, though he tried to convince them as much. I think Stephannie would get irritated by both factors. She was also the one to actuate the gender split at the first tribal council with her swing vote. I think she's the one that's most likely to try to persuade the Raro women to form a gender alliance, since she saw it was successful initially. Cristina might be up for it but I don't really see her instigating the idea. 
Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 11:10 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
I agree with KO that this piece of misdirection is important:J.P.'s dominance and controlling demeanor around camp angers some of the women in his tribe, will this behavior put a target on his back? BR, I like your idea that Stephannie is the instigator. She did it at Hiki, while Christina just went with the "voting flow" at Old Aitu. Predicting from past behavior (granted a sample size of one whole observation for each target), Stephannie might find her self on the short end of her "anger". forehead
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-06, 00:40 AM (EST)
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34. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
>>Unlike the real Tangaroa, this one is missing a critical appendage. So, VG, it could be one of the guys gets, um, "nipped in the bud" so to speak? Do the promo people have a wicked sense of humor? I haven't done an astrology thread this time, but re the teaser of JP's controlling demeanor putting people out of joint,
I find it noteworthy that JP and Jerri Manthey share a birthday.
Maybe he just can't help pointing things out when maybe he should just shut up. Points for a JP boot:
initial thoughts for the week -- as FP says, something puts Raro on a losing streak, booting strength often has that effect. darnell voted for him. Points against:
Not seeing a clear path to a Steph/Cristina/Rebecca exodus after that, unless both Jenny and Parvati ally with Nate/Adam/Brad next time they lose, which could happen, come to think of it. Parvati did pick Jenny, Jenny should be tight with Brad, Parvati clicks with all 3 of these guys. OK, I can see that, which pretty much nullifies my objection to a JP vote.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 10:47 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Just want to throw this theory out there...If the men or Raro stick together and decide to vote out a woman (with Parvati's help), then which one will it be? I'm thinking either Stephannie or Rebecca because they'll see a need to break up the alliance of those two rather than taking out Jenny or Cristina, who are not an alliance. Strategy-wise, it makes sense. Nate won't like it, but he won't be calling the shots anyway. As for whether it's Steph or Rebecca - I have no idea. 
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 01:30 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
I would expect it to be one of them too. I lean toward Stephannie leaving before Rebecca, but I don't know...If the men or Raro stick together and decide to vote out a woman (with Parvati's help) Suppose all the overkill with Parvati's flirting has been misdirection. Maybe it was a set-up because she really does vote with a female alliance this week? I'm not sure Parvati would be comfortable in an alliance with four men. But three men and one other woman I could see. She could plan ahead for that by enlisting Jenny (Parvati picked her for the tribe, plus she has the connection to Brad). This week they vote for a male and next week they have an alliance with the remaining males and start taking out the other women. Maybe we should consider JP a little more closely for this week?
Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 04:58 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
Maybe we should consider JP a little more closely for this week?Well, I am willing to consider it....JP has a controlling demeanor....I can see Cristina getting her nose out of joint over this just as she did with Ozzy. While Ozzy was clearly the more knowledgable one regarding survival in the jungle, Cristina just seemed to be so threatened by that...as much as everyone saw Ozzy as the villain in that ep, I never did. He identified their weak point and he wanted to nip it in the bud....so, maybe he didn't see Burton in Panama...so what. Regardless if JP was from Cristinas original tribe or not, she has a problem with people "controling" her and things that affect her. I don't see Stephanie zeroing in on JP, I see Cristina. The biggest reason I could see a guy going this week is that I see most of the end game "players" on the other tribe....yet, nu Raro has all the muscle/brawn....so therefore, perhaps they do decide to cut some of that excess beef out, which leads to a few double boots down the road where both tribes have to cut, and a possible immunity run by nuAitu???
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-06, 06:41 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
I think she'll be the person who manipulates this boot and who better to get rid of than the one man on the tribe she can't control - JP?This is a very solid point, Corvis. She definately is getting alot of hype, and it seems positive...it makes sense.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-05-06, 10:33 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: S13 Episode 4 SeeBS Misdirection" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-05-06 AT 12:42 PM (EST)Corvis, it was the way you phrased it up above that cleared my head a little: If the men or Raro stick together and decide to vote out a woman (with Parvati's help) The idea of the 4 doofuses forming an alliance and then getting Parvati to come in, or Parvati insinuating herself in, ultimately just didn't seem plausible to me (despite the age closeness, the flirting, etc.). Nate already had the experience at Hiki of being in a 3-2 minority and having to depend on a woman to swing the vote in the men's favor, which she (Stephannie) didn't. So I don't see this happening. (Or, if it does happen, I don't see it working in the men's favor this time either.) While I like Stephannie as the boot very much in theory, any scenario by which she would go seems to fall just short right now. Whereas JP is in the perfect position to get booted. The only thing against him really is the fact that he's suggested as a target in the misdirection, but as forehead noted, they already did that with Billy (and last season they had Nick saying "I'm outta here") in a preview for his boot episode).
Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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