LAST EDITED ON 03-01-06 AT 09:28 AM (EST)

Survivor Panama – Exile Island

Episode 5
“For Cod's Sake”
aka: "For the Lvoe of Cod"

Come on in guys! Another week at Exile Island and what do we get? (No, not another day older and deeper in debt- while that may be the case that isn't what I meant.) We get the State of the Spoiling, and let me tell you something is fishy this week! After Bob Dawg took a carp in the outhouse, almost as if it was his own private little deuce coop (you all know what I mean), it was smelt all the way to La Mina, yeah it was a roughy. Regardless, I know we all saw his storyline developing and if VerucaSalt has taught us about the editing, things don't bode well for Bdawg, we know that eel get his.

SeeBS Misdirection

Outfrontgirl brings us the thread and is a major contributor to the theories inside:

#1) Winning the Reward Challenge ends up being a raw deal for one tribe.

This has been looked at from a couple of different angles, and if you are an avid angler like most of us around here, you'll take the bait.

First off, it looks like the reward winners might go home with raw fish and booze. If it is Casaya, we also know their camp gets flooded ala Saboga. So if they can't get a fire, the reward is a real "raw deal". If it is La Mina, even though they can get fire and cook the fish, the play on words of it being raw to begin with is enough for SeeBS to tease with.

Another viewpoint was saying that this could refer to the reward Casaya got last episode, and the raw deal is referring to raw sewage instead.

#2) A couple of Survivors secretly bond when they selfishly share one of the Reward prizes and anger their tribemates.

and the TV Guide teaser of:

A reward challenge breeds resentment, not solidarity, within the winning tribe, when two of its members take more than their fair share of the prize. Hey, all's fair in love, war and jungle survival.

This is another teaser that has been looked at from two sides. If it applies to LaMina the speculation is that Austin and Nick overindulge in the booze portion of the reward by taking more then their share. But with Austin being so christian the question is, would he sneak off with more than his share just for the halibut?

It could also apply to Sally and Nick (or Sally and Austin) as she takes him aside for some booze, alliance building, and a moray (yes, that is italian for lvoe ).

If however this applies to Casaya, then Shane has shown his ability to be shellfish, so has Courtney. Some say it could apply to Bobby and either Shane or Courtney.

So many choices, which one is the red herring?

#3) Two Survivors fall ill, keeping them up all night and leaving them drained right before the Immunity Challenge. Can these two strong players pull through, or will they bring their tribe down?

Most speculate that this applies to Nick and Austin as shown in the previews. More often then not when a question is teased in this manner the answer is the misdirection. Nick and Austin will be sick (quite possibly from too much booze and food after the RC) but they will come back strong and help lead La Mina to victory in the IC.

#4) It's a long afternoon for one tribe as chaos and confusion hampers the decision of who to vote off. Will an alliance stick or fall apart?

Most people see this as referring to Casaya since they have one distinct alliance and a couple on the outside. Cirie is on her perch watching over the day to day drama. Courtney is floundering as Bruce sings "I beg your pardon, get your toukas out of my zen garden.". Danielle is a snapper as she defends her lazy butt. And even though Aras is a grouper- he finds it hard to keep that pyscho alliance together. All misdirection trying to keep our minds off Bobby.

Reward Challenge

Not a ton of discussion this week on what the challenge entails, however don't pout, we do have some vidcaps thanks to FlowerPower and more in the web promo.

This is clearly the reward challenge because you can see on the left side of the cap in the picture is a bucket of booze:

Bobby has a big fish over his shoulder, it appears that each tribe will have to gather as many fish as they can in a certain period of time, the tribe that has the most fish by weight wins the fish and the booze. (That is one idea, if you have others you can add them to this thread or that thread, we still have a day and a half to spoil this.)

The Exile

Discussion of the exile is in a couple of different threads but this one about the hidden idol that Samboohoo started for us a while back, has the most.

If a La Mina goes, it could be Terry that is secluded again since most on his tribe believes that he has already found the idol.

If a Casaya goes, the leading candidate is Shane as foreshadowed by the comment made by La Mina at one of the challenges last episode about Shane being stronger than he looks. It could also fit Shane because of comments we see from Bruce and Aras about how they wish they were exiled. Plus, who is most likely to face "solitary confinement" then our detox pyscho boy?

Immunity Challenge

Again, not much speculation or discussion going on yet in our vidcap threads, however it isn't too late. We do have these caps:

A race to open each underwater coffin, but what is in each coffin? Oh my cod, it is Rupert and the rest of his Saboga tribe! Well, no not really, at least I hope not.

The Boot

All that we don't know not withstanding, the one thing that seems to be pretty clear from the editing of last weeks show and the previews and vidcaps is that Casaya will lose the IC and Bobby is the leading boot candidate.

Recap

RC: Coin flip
Exile: Terry? Shane? Austin?
IC: LaMina
Boot: Bobby? Sally?

Ongoing Spoilers

(With a nod of thanks to Pepe Lepew for adding this to his SOTS last week, some links I have copied right from his)

VerucaSalt’s always fascinating The Players, The Game, The Editing – Exile Island.

ChillOne’s S12 Spoilers has plenty of preseason spoilers plus speculation on putting the pieces together.

architecturegirl’s Opening Credits thread has some new discussions since the credits are back on and have changed.

Corvis’ confessional analysis which has been a rather good source of boot possibilities in the past. Who's in danger based on confessional analysis:

All of Casaya except Bruce

Sally
Nick
Dan

For those that enjoy astrology analysis Georgianna and OFG have provided plenty! Here, we’ve got Signs of Survival: Exile Island, Signs of Survival, Thread II and Astroanalysis Solar/Lunar Signs.

Carnac the Adequate has Print Spoilers here that are always useful to keep in the back of mind to help us figure out long-term spoilers.

It is time to vote, swim on over to Sherps’ thread

Thanks to each of you for indulging me and my "fish schtick" this week, we know someone is going to get a raw deal, I just hope it isn't us