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"Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 11:48 AM (EST)
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"Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-06 AT 12:00 PM (EST)

Remember last season when we went for weeks missing the boot? We did this because we followed spoiling information that turned out to be wrong. In hindsight, it was obvious that Bobby Jon and Stephanie would each influence their tribes to get rid of the weakest first. And that is exactly what occured.

This season, with no Bobby Jon and Stephanie types to influence the tribes to "keep the strongest," we can expect the booty to come from one of two places: First, they could be booted because of their "weakness" or inability to help the tribe.

Or second, as we witnessed last week with the Tina boot, they could be booted for being the Odd Man Out. In other words, they do not get along with the majority of the group -- or they are in some way different than the majority. Last week, the group dynamics had everything to do with the boot.

Now that the tribes are merging and there are two larger groups, I think we need to identify who the odd men out are. Also, if we can identify who the group leaders are in each group, it will help us to more clearly pinpoint the odd man out in each situation.

It is speculated that La Mina will consist of Terry, Dan, Misty, Sally, Nick, Ruth Marie and Austin. IMHO, the leaders of La Mina will be Terry and Dan, our resident high-flyers, who will want their tribe to work as a well-oiled machine. However, the two in charge will have to find a willing majority alliance. I would expect the tribe motto to be "shape up or ship out." Therefore, IMHO, I would have to think that this tribe will either boot the insubordinate one or the weakest one.

On the other hand, at Casaya, we are speculating to have: Melinda, Cerie, Bob Dawg, Aras, Danielle, Courtney and Shane. And we don't know where Bruce is yet (but in MHO, I think he will be here with Shane). Now it is indeed harder to speculate who the tribe leaders will be. We have Melinda & Cerie who will not contribute much to the tribe's survival or the challenges. They will feel vulnerable wherever they go. Then we have mild-mannered, yet thoughtful Aras with Courtney and Danielle, all young and athletic who will contribute to the challenges. Last we have poor, suffering Shane, who I think, will gain sympathy from his tribe mates. Lastly, there is Bob Dawg -- a cocky, go-for-the-jugular attorney. I think he will try to take on the leadership role but will be rejected by the young guns. Aras will be faced with the dilemma to vote against his earlier tribe mate. In the end, I think he will join Courtney, Danielle and Shane, and vote off Bob Dawg.

ETA, I am discounting C-1's and other spoiling information. It got us in trouble last season when we should have been using common sense. Therefore, let's logically analyze who the boot candidates will be.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Brownroach 02-07-06 1
   RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Scarlett O Hara 02-07-06 2
       RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Brownroach 02-07-06 3
           RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread emydi 02-07-06 5
       RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread emydi 02-07-06 4
           RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Brownroach 02-07-06 6
               RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread KObrien_fan 02-07-06 8
               RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread emydi 02-07-06 10
                   RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Scarlett O Hara 02-08-06 11
                       RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread michel 02-08-06 12
                   "At least" one person -- what if..... Brownroach 02-08-06 13
                       RE: "At least" one person -- what ... emydi 02-08-06 14
                           RE: "At least" one person -- what ... Brownroach 02-08-06 16
           RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread knuckles487 02-07-06 7
               RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Whole Lotta Rosie 02-07-06 9
 RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Flowerpower 02-08-06 15
   RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread emydi 02-08-06 17
       RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread Carnac The Adequate 02-08-06 18
 TDT update Brownroach 02-08-06 19
   RE: TDT update Carnac The Adequate 02-08-06 20
   RE: TDT update michel 02-08-06 21
       RE: TDT update Brownroach 02-08-06 22
           RE: TDT update emydi 02-08-06 23
               RE: TDT update Brownroach 02-08-06 24
                   RE: TDT update emydi 02-08-06 26
           RE: TDT update Flowerpower 02-08-06 25
 The Pickem KObrien_fan 02-09-06 27
   RE: The Pickem Scarlett O Hara 02-09-06 28
       RE: The Pickem Brownroach 02-09-06 30
           RE: The Pickem emydi 02-09-06 31
               RE: The Pickem Brownroach 02-09-06 34
               RE: The Pickem HaroldBalzaccio 02-09-06 35
                   RE: The Pickem Brownroach 02-09-06 38
                   RE: The Pickem emydi 02-09-06 40
   RE: The Pickem emydi 02-09-06 29
       RE: The Pickem KObrien_fan 02-09-06 32
           RE: The Pickem Scarlett O Hara 02-09-06 33
               RE: The Pickem michel 02-09-06 36
               RE: The Pickem Brownroach 02-09-06 37
                   RE: The Pickem Scarlett O Hara 02-09-06 39
                       RE: The Pickem Brownroach 02-09-06 41
                           RE: The Pickem emydi 02-09-06 42
               RE: The Highlights "reel" Carnac The Adequate 02-09-06 43

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 03:57 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-06 AT 04:03 PM (EST)

Maybe I've missed something but an awful lot of people already seem convinced that Casaya is going to TC this week. Can anyone explain where this is coming from? There's no clear indicator of who loses the IC.


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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 05:12 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-06 AT 09:32 PM (EST)

You're right, BR. I do think we need to identify who the boot choices are on both tribes. That is why I started this thread.

Also, wanted to point out that over at TrueDorkTimes, they too are guessing at a La Mina Immunity win.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 05:22 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
Misty would be worth entertaining as the boot if La Mina goes to TC this week, after her hidden II-performance at the IC last week, which I doubt anyone bought.


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 05:37 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
BR my alternate is Misty.. bc of editing of Misty..if she was more long term, she would have been focused a lot more on EI...add to boot the lame "I found hidden II" and I think she would be one to go.

My problem with Bobby going so early, is that now Casaya (until a tribal switch and assuming Melinda is the blond hilite girl..which I recall you saying you thought she was too) then they have to win out until such time as a switch up or merge and that is making me pause a lot

Therefore right now I'd say it's 60-40 Bobby-Misty as boot for me. I'm torn but the twist is making me think Bruce is Exile...

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 05:28 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
You mean Casaya loss, Scar!!

BR, I don't think there is a lot to go on in the caps of water challenge. But I'm going on both the "assumption" that Terry does well with diving and also that La Mina wins the RC and may be the better physical team.

Also, my spec is that Bruce goes to Exile bc he is last one and I do not think the RC is held on the small Exile Island, they leave him there, and he does not know which team he will be on. Corvis' idea that the RC winners also "win" Bruce, is, I think, a very good one and Bruce goes to La Mina. I am not supposing any equality of 4/4 men on tribes.

Then with C1's spoiler about Asian man going to EI early and coming back to help win IC for his team, I spec. that La Mina wins.

I really looked at the blonds on the show and the only one I can consider is Melinda to be F7. So Bobby is the boot. I think Aras is courted by Courtney and he feels pressure as to not boot his original teammate but goes with them to get into a bigger alliance.

That is my reasoning...

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 06:14 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
I don't think Bruce goes to Exile Island this week, and I don't think he's the leftover tribemember either. I do think now that he is one of the tribepickers, based on the vidcaps of them standing with the discs. That puts him on the La Mina tribe, which, from vidcap evidence, wins the RC.

I also still think Melinda is probably the highlight blonde -- at least to me she is the one most apt to be described that way -- but I just wanted to point out that for the other endgame people we have names and more concrete attributes to pin them down, but this one is still a little vague.

From the brief caps of IC I'd agree it looks like something La Mina should win, especially if it is they and not Casaya that have the luxury of sitting someone out. But I'm also suspecting that the "Shane wants to quit" angle is total misdirection: that not only does he not quit (obviously), his tribe doesn't even go to TC this week.

Which gives Casaya more time to lose an IC (or two) before the merge, even if there is no second tribal switch.

I don't know yet...


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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 06:33 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-06 AT 06:36 PM (EST)

I agree with you BR, I don't see why people are saying a Casaya loss nor that Bruce is picked last and exiled.

1. In the vidcaps Bob is stepping forward and so is Bruce.

2. If the C1 intel is correct and if as the others say Bob is out this week, then that means that Casaya: Shane, Danielle, Cirie, Aras, Bobby, Melinda, and Courtney are going to have to run the table on immunity challenges against La Mina: Misty, Nick, Austin, Bruce, Terry, Dan, Sally, Ruth Marie? That is a mismatch if I ever saw one.

I think that La Mina wins reward but then loses the IC. Terry and Dan will pull in Ruth Marie and Bruce and vote out a young weaker player. Most likely they will target Misty or Sally. From what I have seen so far, Misty is smarter. The other boot possibility is Austin. He is young, strong and cocky. If he becomes a target for doing or saying something stupid, then the others could shoot themselves in the foot by booting strength too early and that could lead to why they get killed in challenges if C1 is correct.


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 11:44 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
That is also bothering me BR about Casaya. But I think there will also be a tribal switcheroo and Casaya members will get the numbers on each tribe or be able to "turn" people ala Judd.

The other thing that I can't shake, and I'm no vidcap expert, is that the RC is not done on EI because it is such a small island and the RC looks like a lot of room is needed. Now...I'm also not sure where the pick em with the discs on the ground is held...but I'm thinking it's on EI and they will start on EI most eps.

But the reason I am thinking Bruce is exile is that he is nowhere to be found in RC and I don't think it's just him sitting out. I think the twist has something to do with Exile Island....it's going to be all important. He's not in RC bc he was left on EI.


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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-06, 08:34 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-06 AT 08:38 AM (EST)

Gosh, I'm so confused!!!

Consider this: Getting back to the "Pick 'em" -- if Bruce and Bob Dawg are the two that Pick 'em (because they are the two that have stepped forward), than Bruce would have to be on La Mina and Bob Dawg would have to be on Casaya. Because we see Nick with the Blankets and we speculate he is on La Mina, than that has to mean that La Mina wins RC and that the Exilee must come from Casaya and that would mean that Bruce IS NOT the Exiled one. Perhaps his absence from the vidcaps is simply misdirection?

ETA: If Bob Dawg is indeed the Picker and thinks of himself as the "Leader" of Casaya, could he possibly suffer the same fate as Jolanda, the "Leader" and Picker of Palau's Ulong tribe?

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-06, 09:18 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
I haven't voted yet but I think that looking at the characters on each tribe can guide the choice.

I see La Mina as a tribe that will be quickly structured. Terry has definite leadership qualities. Dan is already following him. Nick and Austin weren't inclined to take the lead in Vivero and Ruth is a follower. Sally and Misty haven't displayed enough will to impose their views on this tribe. Misty is my choice to boot on this tribe because of her timid bluff about the hidden idol.

On Casaya, first I always take source spoiler with a grain of salt. I prefer to go with what I see. And lets not forget what Jeff said about the bonds formed in the initial tribes. If they were to spend episode #2 until merge with the present tribes, those original bonds will have weakened a lot by then. I think another switch (at 13 to balance teams 6-6 + 1 exile?) is inevitable. I therefore don't consider the present composition of this tribe as a signal they can't lose.
How will they play the game? If Bobby imposes his view, then I agree, he can have the same fate as Jolanda. However he didn't display any desire to lead in Vivero and the evidence that he his captain for the picks relies on what may have been a "twitch" while standing in line!
Aras was more of a leader in Vivero and I think he will try to create a good team spirit on Casaya. Courtney will follow. Cirie will try to convince him to boot Shane. Shane will target the old ladies. Bobby and Danielle will look on for now. To keep the peace Aras will direct the vote towards Melinda.

So Melinda, Misty or Bobby? Can't have 3 picks! I'll say Melinda because La Mina appears to be a better team and they have the better swimmers for the water challenge.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-06, 11:14 AM (EST)
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13. ""At least" one person -- what if..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-06 AT 11:15 AM (EST)

The other thing that I can't shake, and I'm no vidcap expert, is that the RC is not done on EI because it is such a small island and the RC looks like a lot of room is needed. Now...I'm also not sure where the pick em with the discs on the ground is held...but I'm thinking it's on EI and they will start on EI most eps.

But the reason I am thinking Bruce is exile is that he is nowhere to be found in RC and I don't think it's just him sitting out...He's not in RC bc he was left on EI.

emydi, you just gave me an idea. Jeff has consistently said that each week "at least" one person will go to EI. Suppose two people visit EI this week. Bruce stays on EI during the RC, which takes place somewhere else, because he is sitting out; he returns afterward and someone else is exiled from the tribe that loses the challenge.

Since we think La Mina wins reward, that is one way that Bruce could be on La Mina and still spend time on EI in this Ep.


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-06, 11:36 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: "At least" one person -- what if..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-06 AT 12:07 PM (EST)

Interesting IDEA BR...

But I looked at the vidcaps and it is clear that the discs and the beginning of the obstacle course are in the same place. and it appears it is EI. But I can't tell...I need FP to confirm (I posted it (no 40) in regular Ep 2 vidcaps (not web))

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

It appears from the karate vidcap that VG just added from recent promos is that Bruce is on EI...I'm still thinking!!

eta vidcaps

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-06, 12:08 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: "At least" one person -- what if..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-06 AT 12:08 PM (EST)

I know, I just realized that too, emydi. So there goes that theory.

But, it's possible there could be two exiles anyway. When Jeff says "at least" one, I don't think he means more than one person is there at the same time. So maybe the losing RC tribe exiles someone for a day, then Jeff shows up at the other camp and says "guess what, you have to send someone to EI now."

It may be too soon for that kind of twist, but I could see it happening down the line. Kind of like the double TC's when there were 18 contestants that penalized a tribe for no reason.


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knuckles487 178 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 06:25 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"

I've been known to be wrong before.......no wait, that's not right. I have never been right yet. That's better. That's better??? Oh well.

I'm going with a Casaya win based on the exile but I have arrived at a different location than everyone else seems to have reached. One of the voiceovers says something along the lines that "the last survivor picked fears the worst until Jeff reveals a twist to Exile Island". This tells me that if Bruce is indeed the exile, which all signs point to, then I doubt that he is the last player picked. I'm thinking of someone more uhhhhh, "non-helpful" such as Cirie. Then with the two new tribes even at 7 people each Jeff reveals the exile twist. Since the last player is fearing the worst, it must be something completely unexpected such as "ok, you are the last one, now you get to trade places with anyone you choose". Let's say it is Cirie, so perhaps she wants to be on the same team as her former tribemate Melinda (maybe a closer tie than with Ruth Marie) so she chooses to trade places with Bruce.

Now Bruce is the odd man out and is sent packing to Exile Island where he has to stay until just before the immunity challenge. At that time he gets to rejoin the team that picked him........Casaya. The spoilers haven't been very good so far but if we give any credence to the one that says Bruce is exiled early and then returns to help his team win immunity, this would be a good spot for it to happen. Casaya wins immunity, La Mina goes to TC.

Now the boot. If it is indeed La Mina, I see the possibility for two different scenerios. Actually voting out who they want off the tribe, or voting for Misty to force her hand early to see if she does have the immunity idol. If they have the numbers, maybe they could give her enough votes to boot her, and also give enough votes to their second choice just in case she does have the idol. First or second choice is a goner. The other possibility is that they just all vote for her as the weak player and she does have the idol.....her vote sends a surprise boot home. Doubtful but hey, it could happen. lol In any event, I am sure hoping that she has that dang idol or else Austin has done something incredibly stupid because I am going with him as the surprise boot. I am such an idiot.


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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-06, 07:14 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
I am making an attempt to stay away from the major spoilers for at the first part of the season, so much of this could be garbage.

Based purely on editing I see us in Casaya this week. It appears that everyone has done a great job in disecting the new tribles. All of our major players from last week appear to end up in Casaya. Plus the preview tends to focus on Shane, Bruce and Cirie so once again we appear to be in Casaya.

Shane, Cirie, Aras, Danielle, Courtney appear to be longer term players and if Bruce ends up here as well I think he also has some longevity. This leaves us with Bobby and Melinda as the two most obvious boot choices.

Of these two Melinda is the more obvious boot choice. Corvis lists her as vulnerable from confessional analysis and the tribe would have to be absolutely nuts to boot their strongest player.

But then again the OW were nuts to boot their strongest player last week so this could be a theme. I also didn't like Bobby's exclusion from Aras's little fire/team building thing last week. And finally I remember reading in an interview with, I think Jiffy, that Aras makes an early ethical decision against what we would expect from his character (I couldn't source this quote, and I looked, so it could have been a spoiler I stumbled onto, or I just couldn't find the interview, or I just could have imagined it :^)).

I still like Melinda to go this week, but I think Scarlett has made a very persuasive arguement for Bobby. Regardless I do think we are in Casaya this week even though it makes very little logistical sense.

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02-08-06, 12:02 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-06 AT 04:20 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-08-06 AT 12:07 PM (EST)

Okay, I have come to some deductions that I find the most logical at this point. We know the 4 tribes are gathered together on EI for what they think is the next RC(ETA: Actually looking at the post BR made above, I am not sure if the RC is on EI or not...). We see them there lined up, and we see parts of the RC challenge apparatus in view. They are lined up with Jiffy by the covered reward table and we have what appears to be Bob Dawg and Bruce stepped forward in the line. There are 7 dark colored discs and 8 light colored discs placed in front of them. I have not formulated any solid hypothesis' as to who are designated as the RC pickers of the school yard challenge. I do think that they will pick along tribes, however...I don't know. Hey Knuckles, I like your spec about the last one getting to trade places with one(Bruce) and that person then goes to EI to rejoin their tribe later....

Here's what I can logically conclude: At this point I do not think that Bruce or Bob Dawg will be the last man standing in the school yard pick. I think Melinda or Cirie are likely to win this position. While they are thinking that , uh oh, I could be toast, Jiffy reveals that they get some kind of bonus and the two tribes try to convince them to come and join their tribe. I think the last one standing will get a choice as to which tribe they will join.

Now, I think that the last one standing will obviously be on the tribe of 8, which is also the tribe that must have Bruce on it, as he is the one sitting out the reward challenge. Now we know, or think that the LaMina's will win the RC as the cap of Nick with the blanket. So the Casaya's must lose the RC and then have to send one of their own to EI. With the latest vidcap of Bruce shown shirtless and alone, and I think conclusively on EI, I feel Bruce will indeed be our Exilee, therefore he must be on the Casaya tribe, the loser of the RC.

So, if CO is correct, then Bruce will come back to help his tribe win the retrieve the skulls and reunite them with the skeletons and burn them, IC challenge. La Mina will go to TC...

According to the OFG theory then, our bootee could be one of Austin, Misty, Nick(from the La Mina tribe). Using Corvis' confessional analysis, he lists 2 or the three names as most likely to be the boot from La Mina...Misty and Nick. Could one of these be the most likely bootee from La Mina?

So far, this is what makes the most sense to me....still open to suggestion though!


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-06, 12:37 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
Fp, I'm now leaning this way too..

If you look at my edited post above, I added the vidcaps and it does look like it is EI where pickem/RC is held.

I think it is Misty...to smoke out the hidden idol and bc of her editing and confessionals last week, if she was to stick around, like Corvis and VS spec, she would have had more conf. about the concept of EI itself and not just her stay there.

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02-08-06, 01:46 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Ep. 2 Boot Discussion Thread"
FP, Emydi --

This is starting to sound good.

The loosing team winds up "swapping out" their Exile for Bruce. I like that.

It also ties in with the reply I put in over at VidCaps
(http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=6267&forum=DCForumID2&omm=42)
about HOW Bruce gets to pick LaMina, but winds up not working with LaMina AND gets exiled/left behind.

Swapping out the exiled person WOULD make for even teams and fulfil the "at least" one exile concept.

Bruce could also be the edge that Casaya needs to win the IC. (Dan doesn't impress me as much of a swimmer.) Bobbie, Aras, Courtney and Bruce could really prove a strong water-team.

So, who does La Mina boot?

I'm leaning towards Misty.

A more savvy, well-balanced group like LaMina is going to go after that potential "nuke" in their midst, and try and force out the hidden immunity idol pretty quickly.

Misty is only likely to be "allied" with Sally at this point, and we know they didn't get much time for that, so there is likely little "bond" there. This leaves Misty kind of on her own.

Terry, Dan, and probably Ruth Marie will likely be pretty tight, and I can see the younger La Minas (Nick, Austin, Sally) pulling together, too -- but Misty remains the odd person out, and a potential threat because of the possibility of her holding the immunity idol.

Given no other CLEAR choice about who to boot (no one dominating, no one particularly aggrevating others): go with the "scary one," the unknown threat, and at least "out" the idol.

I think they will vote to eliminate the idol -- Misty just happens to be the one person who COULD be holding it.

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02-08-06, 04:47 PM (EST)
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19. "TDT update"
He's been told the boot is Melinda.


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02-08-06, 05:01 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: TDT update"
Well, this will be a "do or die" prediction, won't it?

Fingers crossed for TDT!

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02-08-06, 05:05 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: TDT update"
"I feel good!" (see post #12)
Still have to wait and see though!
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02-08-06, 05:16 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: TDT update"
Last week TDT was told Misty wasn't the boot. He already marked Melinda as toast, so he must be pretty sure.

Sounds reasonable to me -- she did nothing in the first IC, so she's a logical first boot from Casaya. Highlight girl must be Sally or Ruth Marie. Bruce must end up on La Mina if C1's spoiler is correct -- his exile must be the result of the last-person-picked twist.


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02-08-06, 05:45 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: TDT update"
i guess, but it just doesn't seem like this would happen...but I've just spent all week determining who I thought boot would be and...I think the C1 spoiler of Bruce is gonna happen...I'm sticking with Misty..for now


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02-08-06, 06:02 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: TDT update"
I think the C1 spoiler of Bruce is gonna happen

emydi, this spoiler can happen if Bruce is exiled, ends up on La Mina, and they win the challenge.


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02-08-06, 09:51 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: TDT update"
Yes, I know that...but hilites is how you would describe Melinda...not Sally and not Ruth Marie...I guess I'm just stubborn...and I don't think Melinda goes yet based on editing...but I'm wrong quite often


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02-08-06, 09:17 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: TDT update"
Sounds reasonable to me -- she did nothing in the first IC, so she's a logical first boot from Casaya

Actually it does sound very reasonable....the only thing that I could not get past was the vidcap of Bruce and Bobby stepping forward. To me it seems that the only answer for this is that they are both called out at the beginning of the school-yard pickem....it makes perfect sense that they should be on opposing tribes....I just can not figure out how Bruce gets exiled then unless as some of you suspect, it involves the twist for the last person standing somehow....perhaps the last one standing (who I wouldn't be surprised at all was Melinda) does indeed get to displace one already on the tribe, who then has to be sent to EI...and perhaps the winner of the RC will get the one displaced upon their return to EI.

Also, in the few vidcaps we have of the IC, retrieve the skulls challenge we have mostly shots of the Casaya tribe...Shane, Bobby Dawg, Danielle, Courtney, Aras, whereas we only have one lone shot of the wonderboy, Terry for La Mina.....just as I was thinking why are they NOT showing more vidcaps of the older Casaya girls in the first IC....it must be because they are losing it....and they ended up doing just that....SO, why are there no more shots of any one other than Super Terry at La Mina, perhaps because Bruce is there and they are WINNING. It makes perfect sense to me!

Yes, I could indeed buy this scenario. If the less physical tribe indeed loses the challenge the most obvious choice for the boot would indeed be Melinda.


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02-09-06, 06:56 AM (EST)
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27. "The Pickem"
I have been thinking this thing out, and if the last person standing (a woman) does get to pick which tribe they are on and it then bumps a guy over to La Mina it could really skew the tribes and it could be the reason why that person gets voted out when her tribe loses both reward and immunity...

Bruce seems to get the first pick based on the fact that he gets the best studs, so the picking could logically flow like this:

Bruce picks Ruth Marie (She shined at the RC in E1)
Bobby picks Danielle (Young, athletic)
Bruce picks Austin (Strong athletic man)
Bobby picks Aras (Knows him and his attributes)
Bruce picks Sally (Young and strong from IC in E1)
Bobby picks Courtney (Strong and young, stays away from exiled one from E1)
Bruce picks Nick (Another strong young man)
Bobby picks Shane (Thinks he has more as the youngest of the older men)
Bruce picks Misty (She must be tough, she made it through exile)
Bobby picks Cirie (Thinks she is fun)
Bruce picks Terry (What a steal at this point)
Bobby picks Dan (Last man due to age and is underestimated)

That leaves Melinda as the last one not picked...She listens to the offers, chooses Casaya to hang her hat.

That leaves one order of business, who will she bump to the other tribe, would she get so much power as to get to choose? It would make sense that she would bump the last one selected because she wouldn't want to weaken her new tribe by sending a stud to the other team. She wouldn't bump Cirie because of the bond they have made already. Judging based on Dan being older, tall, thin and possibly frail she makes the choice to bump Dan...

Which leaves us with:

La Mina- Bruce, Ruth Marie, Austin, Sally, Nick, Misty, Dan, and Terry

Casaya- Bobby, Cirie, Shane, Danielle, Aras, Courtney, and Melinda

Cirie might toss Melinda under the bus to save herself based on the angle that Melinda was the last one picked and is weakest.


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02-09-06, 07:11 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: The Pickem"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-06 AT 07:11 AM (EST)

Go see this thread if you want to know who picks who ...

http://p085.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessage?topicID=18894.topic

from Harold Balzaccio at Sucks. Question is ... Is it fact or fiction?

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02-09-06, 10:58 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: The Pickem"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-06 AT 11:23 AM (EST)

Didn't our own michel speculate that the exiled person would be immune at TC and then replace the bootee in his/her respective tribe? ETA: Yep, right here. Way to go, Michel!

According to this, Nick is shown with the blanket at the very beginning of the episode. Did they already have a blanket? If so, La Mina may not win the RC.


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02-09-06, 11:31 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: The Pickem"
BR or anyone...

what is the history of Harold's trifecta? I being me am skeptical but I'd like to know about this Nova Scotia trifecta...did they get a transcript from another show (ie Apprentice) in the past that proved to be true??

Harold has Melinda as boot...I guess we have to wait for the other 2 parts to see if he has that entire show transcript

If so, Casaya (loses on purpose?) and gets Bruce next week for Melinda...damn that hilite spoiler is still bothering me..Sally just does not look like she would be described as "hilites" Melinda...in a word...does.

BR and Scar, I see you both still have Misty as your boot in the vote thread...are you waiting for parts 2 and 3?

I hate this....and love it at the same time


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02-09-06, 12:09 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: The Pickem"
I just haven't gotten around to changing my vote but I think TDT is probably correct. I don't know the history of the Trifecta, but yeah I'd guess he was able to spoil an entire episode in advance.

LOL - from the reward challenge instructions:

"For the last phase: Go through the water and into a pit of leaves, where you must find the last two snakes."

Cirie should be a big help there. Apparently La Mina does win it.


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HaroldBalzaccio 30 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-06, 12:16 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: The Pickem"
LAST EDITED ON 02-09-06 AT 02:23 PM (EST)

>BR or anyone...
>
>what is the history of Harold's
>trifecta? I being me am
>skeptical but I'd like to
>know about this Nova Scotia
>trifecta...did they get a transcript
>from another show (ie Apprentice)
>in the past that proved
>to be true??
>


This Survivor episode completes the Nova Scotia Trifecta (at least one episode each from Survivor, TAR, and The Apprentice, the three biggest reality shows). 3 (or was it 4? I forget) episodes of The Apprentice (season 3) and the premiere of TAR 7 made up the first two parts.

So yeah, I've done this a few times before.

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02-09-06, 12:38 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: The Pickem"
Nice work, Harold.


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02-09-06, 12:46 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: The Pickem"
Thank you Harold. I just did not know the history.

Nova Scotia did give my town Sidney Crosby, the heir apparent to Mario...so thanks for that too!!


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-06, 10:03 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: The Pickem"
From your posts this week and this one above, I'm assuming you still do not think Bruce is the Exile? I'm confident ?? that he is...In this scenario, La Mina winning RC (blankets) then Casaya is the exiling tribe...Courtney as exilee?

I still am being stubborn on the blond hilites girl...RM and Sally...just don't cut it for me...i know that we don't want to rely on C1 but if we are relying on him for others on jury..I realize that blond hilites is not that specific, but the only one that you would describe that way on this cast is Melinda.. Sally would be braid girl and RM has reddish hair not blond...

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02-09-06, 11:45 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: The Pickem"
That sure does bring an interesting twist to the game...Casaya dropping the IC on purpose, ousting a weakling and gaining a strong man. That makes sense on where Bruce ends up and the domination of his tribe that ensues.


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02-09-06, 12:04 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: The Pickem"
NO!!!! Say it aint so!! Casaya would NEVER be that smart!

About the "Blonde Highlights girl." Why are we putting so MUCH stock in a very early pre-season spoiler? I think we need to rely more solidly on our own observations and intuition. And what I see from HB's post at Sucks is that Terry picked SALLY first. Terry seems like he could go far -- brains + brawn= Early boot OR longevity (50/50). Maybe Sally is smart enough to ride on those coattails farther into the game, if Terry can indeed make it to the end game.


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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-06, 12:21 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: The Pickem"
First of all: Thank you BR.
Scarlett, I think you have the right idea about Sally going far with Terry. If you add Sally to the original La Mina making jury then we are getting close to a majority at merge. They would need only one more and that could be Danielle. She could still have ties to Sally!
Of course we still have to see if it does happen that way!
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02-09-06, 12:35 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: The Pickem"
About the "Blonde Highlights girl." Why are we putting so MUCH stock in a very early pre-season spoiler?

IT WASN'T A SPOILER


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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-06, 12:39 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: The Pickem"
I'm sorry BR ... I thought it came directly from the ChillOne stuff. My mistake!!

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02-09-06, 12:54 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: The Pickem"
Sorry, scar, I didn't mean to yell

I should have clarified: yes, C1 said there was a blonde with noticeable highlights in her hair. I meant there is no spoiler that this is Melinda. She might be the best fit to be described that way, but who the heck knows, when you're dealing with the C1's sources?

I do agree with you -- we should let it go.


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02-09-06, 12:56 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: The Pickem"
BR was screaming at me, Scar

Stubborn since S6

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Carnac The Adequate 57 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-06, 04:34 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: The Highlights "reel""
Was just reading over all the latest talk about "the woman with the blonde highlights," and I got a very sick, sneaking suspicion.

First, when we saw the DAWs hitting the beach in the opening episode, it appeared to me that Danielle's hair was kind of "highlight prone." It looked like it had streaks in it that might REALLY come out after a few weeks in the sun.


But the really scary thought that occurred to me a few minutes ago was ... PRODUCT PLACEMENT!


What if one of the sponsors Survivor has brought on board this year is a shampoo/hair-care company that has one those do-it-yourself hair streaking/highlighting kits to push?

Maybe the person with highlights GETS them ON the island! Maybe having your hair styled winds up being part of a luxury reward!

*brbrrrrrrrrrbbbrrrrrrr* *shiver*

That could get scary.

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