LAST EDITED ON 01-31-06 AT 02:57 PM (EST)

Survivor12: Panama, Exile Island

Episode 1: The First Exile

Welcome back everyone! It's great to get this ball rolling!(...wait a minute...ball rolling...that was last season, snicker, snicker, choke...cough!) Welcome to the first SOTS of the season! Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1 Colleen, Be nice and play fair!

Now, let the game BEGIN!!! The Panama location was spoiled by Wezzie and Dan at Sucks many months ago sometime just prior to the airing of S11. It was introduced officially as Panama, Exile Island by CBS at the S11 Finale when Jiffy surprised us with the theme of exile. Following this preview, emydi started the speculation here with her S12 Panama: EXILE ISLAND thread. With the introduction of a commercial regarding exile island shown on the OLN channel in late December, SurvivorScott started an excellent thread noting 4 Tribes and a Date, here. In that thread we got many sightings like this:

We got lots of pics of skulls and skeletons. Tribephyl and Capn2Patch noted in particularly the scroll pattern with the 4 points noted on one of the skulls. Tribe identified this scroll like pattern as VeVe’s, which are from the Voodoo (or Vodoun) religion. Bound to be a theme throughout S12, no doubt!

Pre-Season Spoilers

Chill One, a voice from our past, returned and started his spoiling thread over at Survivor Spoilers at Sucks. He claimed his sources were all old friends he'd made during his trip down there for A$$. He had lots of descriptions to provide, and even spoiled the first hint at a "penalty island". Way to go with that, Chill! Brownroach started the Chill OneThread here at Blows. Some great discussion going on in there but the gist of it is:

F1: Terry, Military Guy,(at first thought he may have had air force roots, possibly even an astronaut. Name rhymed with "Barry", or course we now know that his name is Terry. Wins 7 IC's in a row. Wins the Family Reward Challenge. He's the leader and most in control.
F2: Tall skinny guy(Aras vs. Dan)
F3: Danielle: Doesn't get along with Military guy. When the others are spending time with their loved ones after the family RC, she is sent to Exile Island and doesn't get to see her mother.
F4: Cirie: Black girl. Nurse. Awarded a family visit by military guy and sees her husband.
F5: Very small man(thought to be Shane): Awarded a family visit by military guy and sees his son.
F6:? Unknown contestant
F7: Another blonde with "noticable highlights". Voted out the night before the Family Reward Challenge.
F8: Asian Guy, Bruce: Sent to Exile Island early in the game and comes back to help his tribe win the next challenge.
F9: Caucasian girl with Rasta-style hair, Courtney

*Spoiled the use of a "penalty island"
*Notes that at the F4 TC there is a deadlock between Danielle and Cirie. It is settled with a fire-building challenge, first to burn through their string is the winner. Danielle wins, Cirie goes home.

The second major preseason spoiler to emerge is Wickchix, who has also posted in the Chill One thread over at Survivor Spoilers in Sucks. Brownroach has pulled all the Wickchix info over to Blows in the "Wickchix says the first boot is female" thread. Here is the gist of what she has to say:

F1: Aras, young male, favored to win by a longshot
F2: Danielle, young woman
F3: First reported that the Astronaut was F3, NOW reports that F3 is "the Pilot", Terry

*The show begins with the survivors having to endure another 2 day hike.
*Exile Twist, includes a chance to find a hidden immunity that if found can be used anytime before the F4 TC's. Terry, the pilot, finds it.
*First boot is female
*First tribe doesn't eat for 10 days
*Second tribe doesn't eat for 12 days
*One of the two tribes wins a huge feast but this leads to many of them getting sick. Bruce and another female become seriously impacted. Due to his family history of aorta problems, Bruce is taken out of the game on Thanksgiving Day(which as far as we can tell would be at F8). The woman who was also impacted ends up staying(so must be F7 or better?)
*Aras gets a cut that requires stitches on the last day of filming

TDT has also received his share of info as well and has a very nice, chronological listing of them here. He has heard that the F2 are a young man and a young woman as well. He has Shane out at F5(possibly CO's "very small man").

Now I would be SERIOUSLY REMISS to not give major KUDOS to our Bianca! Bianca is a one woman wonder when it comes to spoiling the DAWS prior to the cast announcement. She is absolutely the queen of uncovering the cast. I have no idea how she does it, but she and some her friends at Sucks, including TDT, SurvivorFire, and Survivorof Christ as well, were able to uncover them ALL prior to the announcement. See how it all unfolded at this remarkable thread, which is located in Survivor Spoilers over at Sucks. Most of the information in our Survivor 12, Meet the Castaways Thread, was copied from Bianca’s.

Meet the Cast!

|||
|-------VIVEROS--------|-------BAYONETA------|--------LA MINA--------|--------CASAYA--------|
|||
|----------Aras----------|---------Courtney-------|----------Bruce----------|---------Cirie---------|
||||
|---------Austin---------|---------Danielle--------|----------Dan-----------|------Ruth Marie-------|
|||
|---------Bobby---------|----------Misty----------|---------Shane---------|--------Melinda--------|
|||
|----------Nick---------|-----------Sally---------|---------Terry----------|----------Tina---------|

**To find out more about these DAWS just click on their pictures and read their CBS bios.

Here’s basically a bit about the cast:

Aras: 24,Yoga instructor, California boy, MBA, ex-pro basketball player, Jiffy says “he’s bringing a lot of talk”.
Austin: 24 from High Point, NC, religious, Author, model, soccer player
Bobby: 32 from LA, "Bob Dawg", baseball player, prep school, college then law school, lawyer, works out, single, “modern day cave man”, Jiffy says he’s a big talker.
Bruce: 58, Japanese American, LA, Eagle Scout, Black Belt, Teacher, Backpacking instructor and hiker, married with 2 kids, son and daughter. Jiffy says if he quiets down he could be ok, but thinks Bruce won’t realize it and he’ll be gone.
Cirie: 35, OR Nurse, from Jersey, now in South Carolina, lost 30 pounds swimming, running and with a personal trainer in preparation for Survivor, strong, married with 3 sons, the couch potato that got off the couch.
Courtney: 31, Nationally ranked gymnast, now a fire dancing performance artist, single, “clean” dreadlocks
Dan: 52, South Hadley, Mass, retired astronaut with 3 space flights, extremely educated, married with a daughter and a son, into Robots.
Danielle: 24, from Boston, now in Florida working for a medical sales company. Serious athlete in high school and played soccer in college. She says that physically no one can touch her.
Melinda: 32, Tennessee, singer, sang at Dollywood with Dolly. Model, jogger.
Misty: 24, Texas, beauty queen, electrical engineer getting a masters, rocket scientist, marathon training
Nick: 25, Arizona, waiter, applying to Law school. Jiffy call him a “frat boy” that’s athletic.
Ruth Marie: 48, South Carolina, ex beauty pageant winner, ex-policewoman, now in Shopping Center Development, very competitive runner and marathoner. 2 kids, a daughter and a son
Sally: 27, “Survivor Sal”, Minnesota, soccer player and coach, social worker, ran a marathon, divorced now in Chicago with 2 kids.
Shane: 35, from Nebraska now in LA. Son Boston, entertainment marketing company, chain smoker, manipulates people without having them resent it? “Colin Farrell lookalike”, Jiffy says if he plays the way he’s been showing us he’ll be short term.
Terry: 46, from NJ, now in Simsbury, Connecticut. US Naval Academy, retired Navy Pilot and Naval Reserves, now flies for American Airlines as a commercial pilot. Jiffy says that this guy could win it.
Married with 2 kids, a daughter and a son.
Tina: 45, Lumberjill, Hayward, Wisconsin, lost her only son in a car accident last year, Jiffy says she’s a likable Sue Hawk.

Episode 1, "The First Exile"

The title for the first episode wasn't discovered until the TV Guide online listing was released: "The First Exile" (episode: #1): The 12th season begins with 16 castaways arriving in Panama and dividing into four tribes (older men, older women, younger men, younger women). The four teams compete in a reward challenge.

There were various articles released prior to the airdate of the show, coming from Variety, Celebrity Spider, and Zap2it. These articles can be reviewed in the Four tribes and a date Thread started by survivorscott. The gist of it was that there would be 4 tribes divided by age and gender that would go from 4 to 2 tribes via a school yard pick'em in the second episode. One castaway will be banished to Exile Island every week until the IC, where the exiled one has a chance to find a hidden immunity idol to be used to save themselves should they be voted out at TC. We have ruled out that they will have to compete as an individual in the IC's, however.

The Reward Challenge

While the timeline for the show has been argued for weeks, we think we have a pretty good idea as to how it will go. At this point we think the Daws will have been given their buffs and placed by tribe onto 4 separate boats with the "no talking" rule into effect.

Here we see the girls arriving perhaps, mouths shut....

...and here are are the young guys arriving to the beach where we can see other boats have also arrived. Note the deck hand waiting on the boat next to the guys and the hand that is stabilizing the boat for the guys to disembark on the right of the cap as well. Note that they already have their buffs, see Bobby is wearing his on his head.

Once disembarked the Survivors will immediately be gathered together by Jiffy and they will have their cast photos taken, as they are all seen in the exact same clothing, looking fresh, but notably having wet pants below the knee....

Note Nick's and Aras' wet pant legs below the knee. This is also noted in all of the individual tribe shots as well. Once all of the cast photos and tribe photos are done, Jiffy calls them all in and says it's time for the first RC. The tribes then break off to decide who will participate for each. They end up with Ruth Marie, Terry, Danielle, and Austin. On Jiffy's go, they're off and running...

While many feel that since this is a Reward Challenge, that the other survivors must be involved somehow as well, as say in a relay. But BR makes a great point here, post #48. He thinks that perhaps it is just a one person per tribe challenge. Winners will receive flint for fire, and the losing tribe must IMMEDIATELY decide who will be the first exiled one!

Well, we have found fire/smoke:
At La Minas, the old guys camp:

At Viveros, the young guys camp:

and at Casaya, the older girls camp:

but in all the vidcaps that we've received so far there is NO siting of smoke/fire at Bayoneta, the young girls camp.

Additionally, TDT was the first to speculate here that out of all the pre-show vidcaps of shots around camp, there are no sightings of Misty at Bayoneta, thus leading him to believe that Misty could be our exiled one. We then note the very odd looking beach of Exile Island here:

and noting the beach that Misty is sitting on here, wearing the same exact thing sans yellow top that she had on for the cast photos:

Then with the onset/arrival at the IC challenge with all of the Bayoneta girls in swim attire except Misty, who is wearing what she had on upon her arrival at the RC:

Many of us speculate that the boats will bring the separate tribes together at Exile Island where they will disembark, immediately have their cast photo shoot, then immediately be asked to pick one tribe member to run a race. The race will reward the first 3 finishing tribes with flint for fire, and will determine which tribe will exile one of it's own immediately. Once the exiled one is determined everyone but the exilee will get on their boats and go to their respective camps. Thus the shot of the boats breaking away from each other in the vidcaps.

We are confident that our first exilee is indeed :

...as for winner of the RC, I'll take a stab at:

Immunity Challenge, 4 X 4

Once the tribes finally get to their respective beaches, they all get busy with the construction of their shelters. There is lots of drama at the camps, and on exile island, where Misty is frantically searching for the hidden II. Thanks to Volcanic Glass for posting the Dalton Ross article for us here, we are pretty sure that the exiled one will be left with a bucket of dirty water, a flint for fire, a bowl, and a machete. On day three they are all gathered at the IC site, where Jiffy calls them in and they have an incredibly long pre-challenge explanation, run-through, and question answer session. When they are finally ready to run it, it may go as follows:

*Race to the water and swim a long distance to the floating ladder platform...
*Climb up on the raft stationed there...

*Climb behind, then up and over the ladder platform and then jump forward into the water...(careful to clear the raft!)

*Note here that the tribes seem to be pretty close at this point as we see Cirie jumping, we see one of the older guys climbing(?Terry) and we can make out a figure on the young girls ladder as well...

*Climb back onto the raft, get whatever you need in the floating crate(perhaps rings for ring toss?)...
*paddle back to the beach with contents of crate...

*Note the LaMina has paddled over the lane line into Casaya's lane...

*once on the beach dig in the sand to retrieve something you need for the next part of the challenge....(perhaps the directions for the mental puzzle?)

*move onto the mental challenge/puzzle part that has the large tubes around the vertical stake with a horizontal post over it, this part requires one team member(Aras for Viveros, Ruth Marie for Casaya, Courtney for Bayoneta, and ? For Las Minas) to call out directions to solve it, while the 3 others of the tribe work the actual puzzle.

*...then on to the ring toss....*I think that the ring toss will follow the mental puzzle part as he is facing away from the water, back to the water, and behind him we see the vertical post with the horizontal bar that was used for the mental puzzle part. They are proceeding in the challenge toward the finish line which is probably the farthest point away from the water.

*first one to unfurl their flag at the end of the race is the winner! Of course I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see fire involved with this challenge as well.

So the BIG questions are who wins and more importantly, who loses? Well, I was leaning toward the younger guys winning this extremely physical challenge, but logically I have to go with the older guys winning it. I just think this particular challenge will be won and lost in the mental/puzzle part of the challenge. With an astronaut and a fighter pilot on La Mina, I think they will overcome at this point. Granted it's speculation on my part and I think the younger guys will be right there as well.

Now for the LOSER. Wickchix has been informed by her source that the first boot is female. Logically, I agree, one of the women's tribes will lose this one. While the younger girls may have arrived earlier from their raft portion than the older gals, once again, I think this challenge is won and lost at the mental/puzzle portion of the race. Historically, I think older gals have a slight advantage at puzzles so I'm going with Casaya overtaking Bayoneta here. Again, it's all spec.

So, with lots of spoilers suggesting Danielle and Courtney ending up on the Jury, that leaves Misty or Sally. With Misty as the first exilee, she has had the least opportunity to bond with her tribemates. Therefore I'll predict our bootee is:

But don’t worry Misty…..you aren’t the only Survivor exiled these days….

I apologize for the length of the post and I remind you to stop by and see Sherpa Dave to go and vote! Please go and see our Veruca Salt and her fabulous editing friends and pay Corvis a visit at Survivor Thoughts from Iowa. Thanks to Scarlett O'Hara for helping me with my 3 little graphics!