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"Final Predictions For Episode 4..."
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:16 AM (EST)
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"Final Predictions For Episode 4..."
LAST EDITED ON 11-10-00 AT 09:18 AM (EST)

OK, lets start the thread...

(I'm locking the one from Ep 3)

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Kimmi sgoogs 11-10-00 1
 A female will be booted Tina im gue... Lockescythe 11-10-00 2
   RE: A female will be booted Tina im... Tarot Dragon 11-10-00 3
 Tina Dreamingofcolleen 11-10-00 4
 Tina goes GuitarMan 11-10-00 5
 Rodger Expert Texpert 11-10-00 6
 "Tina" rameses 11-10-00 7
 Rodger MDSkinner 11-10-00 8
 mitchell janisella 11-10-00 9
 Mitch -- by Superman AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 10
 Tina -- by Conspiracy Jim AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 11
 Mitch -- by janisella AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 12
 Mitchell -- by Elwood II AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 13
 Mitchell -- by Corkie41 AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 14
 Kimmi -- by sgoogs AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 15
 Tina -- by Mistofleas AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 16
 Keith (if Ogakor loses immunity) --... AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 17
 Tina -- by siebured AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 18
 Mitchell (Rodger if Kucha loses) --... AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 19
 Jerri -- from fba90392 AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 20
 Keith or Nick -- by Kentucky Joe AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 21
 Elisabeth -- by AthenaDax AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 22
 Rodger -- by m4md AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 23
 Kentucky Joe (Rodger) -- by dangerb... AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 24
 Tina -- by castaway AyatollahKhomeini 11-10-00 25
   Hey AK -- thanks a lot for all the ... SurvivorBlows 11-10-00 31
       RE: Hey AK -- thanks a lot for all ... Elwood 11-11-00 32
 I so hope it's Jerri DivaByTheSea 11-10-00 26
 RE: Final Predictions For Episode 4... colbysincharge 11-10-00 27
   sorry...rodger colbysincharge 11-10-00 28
       RE: Rodger moonbaby 11-10-00 29
 RE: Final Predictions For Episode 4... Roydal1 11-10-00 30
 Mitchell AyatollahKhomeini 11-11-00 33
   RE: Mitchell feels weak GuitarMan 11-11-00 35
 Results so far AyatollahKhomeini 11-11-00 34
   RE: Results so far MDSkinner 11-11-00 36
       RE: Results so far dangerboy 11-11-00 37
           RE: Tina (Ogres) OR Rodger (Kucho... Dalton 11-11-00 41
 Jerri or Tina md23rewls 11-11-00 38
   Just to be different 666Advocate 11-11-00 42
 Mitchell flying squirrel 11-11-00 39
 RE: Final Predictions For Episode 4... kandlo 11-11-00 40
 FINAL TALLIES AyatollahKhomeini 11-11-00 43
   RE: FINAL TALLIES Tamia2001 11-11-00 44
       Surprise to the average viewer, not... AyatollahKhomeini 11-11-00 45
   RE: FINAL TALLIES Minstrel 11-11-00 46
       Just call me "Jeb" AyatollahKhomeini 11-11-00 47
           ...but if I'm Jeb... AyatollahKhomeini 02-16-01 48
           RE: Just call me "Jeb" Minstrel 02-16-01 49

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sgoogs 32 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:22 AM (EST)
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1. "Kimmi"
It's kimmi this week,, my evidence,,
not much,,

1. 7 seats at the TC (Kucha)
2. 7 torches entering the TC (kucha)
3. Nick has no airtime and no pics on cbs (he's safe)
4. kimmi has scheduled appearance next week
5. kimmi has more photos on cbs web than others.
6. Maryln's chat mentioned she got to know kimmi
6. gut feeling

not much to go on this week, and much of the above could point to any of kucha,
and for the surprise I just don't know,,
"red hering/pig" maybe?

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Lockescythe 52 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 10:33 AM (EST)
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2. "A female will be booted Tina im guessing"
in survivor one the first six bootees went in this order

FEMALE ((sonja, debb))
MALE ((kel, BB))
Female ((STACEY MARALYN))
Female Ramona
Male Dirk
Male Joel

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Tarot Dragon 19 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 11:07 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: A female will be booted Tina im guessing"
Well! I finally got onto this board! I've been trying for days now having browsed this site for some time! So, my first post. As you can see from my "handle," I do Tarot card readings (and I am a dragon in the Chinese New Year). I enjoy doing readings, but I don't know how long posts can be. I would like to share my readings regarding Survivor 2, which I love watching, so if someone can tell me how long a post can be I would appreciate it. With the number of survivors at the moment, the text would be long.

In the meantime, I have done a reading for episode 4 and the ultimate question of who is voted out next. I feel everyone will enjoy my readings and, I will use them as my predictions. Since time is of a concern at the moment, and I need more information from this board, I will summarize.

The Ogakor tribe has a separation or ending and a major decision on a situation to make. Since the reading for Kucha was not negative or threatening, I predict Ogakor loses immunity. I see this separation as a loss of a member and the decision at Tribal Council. In reading the individual tribe members, Keith is facing a new start or an ending coupled with increased suspicion from his tribe. I read this as his exit from the game in E4.

Of course, there is more to my reading, but as I said, I will be brief this time. Please let me know how long a post can be. Thanks.

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Dreamingofcolleen 73 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 11:29 AM (EST)
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4. "Tina"
With the surprise being a tie between her and Mitchell. A stab in the dark.
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GuitarMan 6 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 11:45 AM (EST)
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5. "Tina goes"
OKAKOR will lose both challenges in Ep4. They have the weaker tribe.

After losing the IC, Okakor will start showing signs of panic because they are getting worried about being swept by the other tribe. The weakest will go and that is Tina. She also performed poorly in the other challenges.

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Expert Texpert 113 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 01:01 PM (EST)
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6. "Rodger"
It'll be Elisabeth that deals the fatal blow. She's got a heart of stone.
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rameses 89 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 03:23 PM (EST)
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7. ""Tina""
Ogakor will lose IC. Other than that, just basing this on a
gut feeling. Plus, payback for Mad Dog.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 06:56 PM (EST)
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8. "Rodger"
As much as I hate to say it, I think the old guy is going to be dropped this week. I believe Ogakor will win the IC and I think that they will vote Rodger off pretty easily, with really only Liz going against the flow.
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janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 06:58 PM (EST)
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9. "mitchell"
Again, I'm deciding (although not with a lot of conviction, I have my doubts about the truthfullness of the 3 in a row statement) that Ogakor is the tribe that loses 3 immunities in a row (and that Kucha will lose the NEXT one). I'm also predicting that Mitchell will go because they are finally realizing that they need to worry about their strength in physical challenges (they're not total morons; they do realize they should have held onto Kel until they won a few more challenges) and Mitchell is their weakest member right now (as much as Jerri may dislike Keith, he and Colby are the only strong males left and both are probably needed to win challenges).

My second guess would be Rodger based on his supposedly being seen in New York yesterday (I kind of doubt he would have been brought in a whole day before the show aired - maybe he was brought to New York as a red herring).

J.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:09 PM (EST)
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10. "Mitch -- by Superman"
The vote thread on the temporary board contained a lot of analysis. I've decided to bring it over here a person at a time so that we can retain it for future use.

Post #1

Superman
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 5:45:13 am)
Reply Time to vote....................(Mitchell)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't know for sure when this is usually started, but with the limited amount of info this week, I don't really think it matters. I'm gonna buy into all the speculation this week and go for Bitchell. Please put your vote for bootee in the subject line.

Superman
Registered User
posts: 2
(2/14/01 12:58:52 pm)
Reply
Re: Tina -why would you even think Mitchell?????!!!!!?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is a pic that appears in the teaser, appears to be immunity challenge, tribe approaching Jeff....

CJ, I've always respected your analysis and opinions, but this time I just feel like Tina is way, way too obvious.

I'm picking Mitch BECAUSE he's not obvious based on the show. Granted, It's all just theory, but if we are in agreement that Ogakor goes to TC this week try to see this:

Tina, voting out Marilyn last week, said she was because she made a promise. To who? Why couldn't she have promised...Amber. Remember back to SI when the alliance voted along with Sean? Who's to say Tina and Amber aren't voting together this way? I have seen no evidence that Amber is part of this alliance other than the fact that she has voted the same....And if I base it on this then, I guess everyone in Kucha is allied because they all voted for Debb and up until last week everyone in Ogakor was allied too. So they voted the same 2 weeks in a row, it means nothing at this point. This is how I see the voting:

Jerri, Mitch, Colby - Tina
Keith, Tina, Amber - Mitch

Colby changes his vote and this will put him at odds with Jerri, thus, your suprise ending and your black widow, because Jerri will avenge this. AND take into consideration this week's CBS teaser - 2 people vow to tkae down an alliance(or something like that).

CJ, I know, It's just a theory, but I can't bring myself to make my pick based on what the show is spoon-feeding me.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:12 PM (EST)
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11. "Tina -- by Conspiracy Jim"
Post from other board...

Conspiracy Jim
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 10:42:09 am)
Reply Tina -why would you even think Mitchell?????!!!!!?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thinking Mitchell is gone this week is just ludacrous. Normally I would let anyone believe what ever they want and not come down so hard but I don't want this board to select the wrong loser. Mitchell makes no sense in that he is DEFINITELY a part of the "Jerri's Kids" alliance. There are so many other members of Okagor that make more sense using the logical evidence that we have. Jerri oviously will not want to lose either control of the voting nor any further immunity challenges. Sure Mitchell isn't the most physical of the Okagorians but he is by far more so than Tina. Tina or Kieth makes the most sense. I would lean more so towards Tina in that Jerri SHOULD know that she needs Kieth, who is one of the more physical Okagorians, to win the next two immunity challenges. Tina is the one who has both lost the episode 2 "Mad Cow" challenge and hampered their ability to win the "Rope Race" challenge. So again I ask why would you believe that Mitchell gets the boot this week. It seems more than logical that if indeed Kucha loses again that Tina or Kieth are the next to go.

Conspiracy Jim

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:15 PM (EST)
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12. "Mitch -- by janisella"
LAST EDITED ON 11-10-00 AT 09:17 PM (EST)

Post from temporary board...

janisella
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 7:34:42 am)
Reply Mitchell
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm voting Mitchell too. I think Ogakor will lose (it will be three in a row, and then Kucha will lose the next one) and at this point Mitchell is the weakest member.

Second choice would be Tina, but I really think Mitchell is the biggest liability in physical challenges.

P.S. Sorry, Janisella, I see you already posted on the revived board!

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:20 PM (EST)
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13. "Mitchell -- by Elwood II"
From the temporary board...

Elwood II
Registered User
posts: 8
(2/14/01 8:28:22 am)
Reply Mitchell
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I gotta agree here. I think there'll be a tie with Mitchell and Tina, and someone voting for Mitchell will realize he's their weak link (being 7 ft tall and 130 pounds and all and boot him. This may also lead to the demise of Jerri as a power in Ogakor (we can hope, right?).


Elwood II
Registered User
posts: 10
(2/14/01 11:04:27 am)
Reply Re: Here's why Mitch (as I see it)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why Mitchell? Well, for starters because I think he's the weakest member. He's a 7 foot noodle, and has already commented to the others that he feels weak. The walk last ep for tree mail almost did him in. Plus being that tall he's probably a bit uncoordinated at the best of times.

Tina is small as well as athletic. She's some kind of tri-athlete or endurance competitor (though not a good one, but that she competes tells me she's in some kind of shape for her age). I'd guess Mitch doesn't weigh a whole lot more than Tina, given that there's close to 2 feet of size difference between the two.

Keith has already brought up Mitchell's name, and Colby mentioned the 3 that were neck and neck were Keith, Mitchell and Maralyn. Mitchell mentioned to the camera that if Maralyn went week 1 instead of Kel, they'd probably not have lost week 3. I'm guessing he mentioned this to at least one tribemate.

Since I do think Ogakor is going to lose Immunity in Ep 4, some in the tribe will be looking to get rid of the most physically weak, regardless of alliance, because that would help the whole tribe in Ep 5. Plus 3 in a row would have to lead to some kind of panic, and possibly a bonding of some type (however temporary). And the next vote takes place 3 (or more) days after Mitchell already mentioned how weak he was. No doubt in my mind Keith will push for Mitchell again. I think Tina got clued in because her name wasn't mentioned by Jerri at TC, and Colby already has noticed Mitch is close. That's 3 that I think will eventually go for Mitch. Amber I've no idea on, neither about Jerri, but if the both of them think they've got 4 votes (Jerri, Amber, Mitchell, Colby) for the same person, and it ends up in a 3-3 tie, they'll know they've got a turncoat as well as one of their "votes" on the chopping block. At least one would be smart enough to switch, I think.

That's why I'm saying Mitchell. And it is pretty much a guess, since there's no real evidence for it. The only hint we have to go on is the "one tribe loses 3 IC's in a row" rumor, which could still be Kucha losing the next 3, or a false rumor.

BTW, in that TC video capture from the Ep 4 preview, over at SS it's been pretty well shown that it's at least one crew member in the pic. Not sure what that does, but I'll try to post a link to a pic in another thread.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:22 PM (EST)
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14. "Mitchell -- by Corkie41"
From the temporary board...

Corkie41
Registered User
posts: 2
(2/14/01 9:44:38 am)
Reply Mitchell
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree. Mitchell seems to be the weakest of the bunch, so even members of his "alliance" will probably decide that he needs to go before they lose another immunity challenge.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:24 PM (EST)
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15. "Kimmi -- by sgoogs"
From the temporary board...

sgoogs
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 10:57:33 am)
Reply Kimmi
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's kimmi this week,, my evidence,,

not much,,

1. 7 seats at the TC (Kucha)
2. 7 torches entering the TC (kucha)
3. Nick has no airtime and no pics on cbs (he's safe)
4. kimmi has scheduled appeared next week
5. kimmi has more photos on cbs web than others.
6. Maryln's chat mentioned she got to know kimmi
6. gut feeling

not much to go on this week, and much of the above could point to any of kucha,
and for the surprise I just don't know,,
"red hering" maybe?

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:27 PM (EST)
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16. "Tina -- by Mistofleas"
From the temporary board...

Mistofleas
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 11:16:54 am)
Reply Tina...Mitch...no...Tina
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have to agree with CJ on this one. First of all, Olgakor has not shown the best sense in who to boot (Kel). Second, I think that Jerri still thinks she can use Mitch in getting the merger tribe that she want's (although I have to admit I don't completely believe she's running the show!). Tina is definately a liability since she is so easily manipulated. She'll go with whoever gets to her first. One day, Jerri might be just a little too slow and get there second. Also, she is the one that is slower, but for different reasons than Mitchell. Oh hell, I don't really know what I'm saying. All I know is that if Ughakor goes to TC then Tina is gone.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:31 PM (EST)
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17. "Keith (if Ogakor loses immunity) -- by ItzLisa"
From the temporary board...

ItzLisa
Registered User
posts: 11
(2/14/01 12:28:34 pm)
Reply Das boot...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My picks for both tribers, depending on who loses immunity....

Kucha - Michael, if whatever he does (slaughter the pig? Poor Kimmi!!!! Okay, low blow!) horrifies the rest of the tribe like it does in the previews. He's intent on finding food for the tribe (that BASTARD!!! *Huff!*), and for whatever reason, this is really chapping the butts of his tribemates. Or, it could be....
Rodger - he's a total sweetie, I really like him alot and am rooting for him on this tribe - but he's older and has trouble with the physical challenges. Plus, it's clear Jeff and Alicia are laying for him like a couple of wolverines. But maybe....
Kimmi - no explanation needed!!! "I can eat a worm, I can eat a worm" indeed!!!

Ogawhore -
Keith - I think he'd be the only pick on here. He's a great solid person, and I like him the best out of these backstabbers, which would be why he'd better pack up his paella pan! He's the only one who's not really bonded with anyone else (though that didn't matter for poor Mad Dog with Tina around!), plus he absolutely makes it clear he can't stand Jerri, who has the rest of the tribe wrapped around her syphillis-encrusted little finger! Keith is takin' the road less travelled, and it's gonna lead the poor dude right back to Michigan!!!

****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:33 PM (EST)
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18. "Tina -- by siebured"
From the temporary board...

siebured
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 1:23:43 pm)
Reply Tina
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After three immunity losses this tribe will be severely down and I think that the person who loses the challenge for the team will be booted, regardless of who they are.
Logically, I like CJ's 6M/4F & 6 kucha/4 Ogie theory. So, a woman should go tomorrow and the male will come from Kucha. (btw CJ, the only problem I have with that theory is one of the stronger members will go E6)
If kucha loses, Kimmi goes.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:37 PM (EST)
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19. "Mitchell (Rodger if Kucha loses) -- by Tamia/Tamia2001"
From the temporary board...

Tamia
Registered User
posts: 28
(2/14/01 1:38:05 pm)
Reply Rodger /Mitchell
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I can't imagine why Mitchell would be a surprise,but perhaps there is another surprise.If Ogakor loses,perhaps the true leader of Ogakor,Colby,will vote against Jerri.Perhaps she'll stay,but it will be an all-out war between Colby and Jerri if this happens!(Oh,I hope so!)

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:40 PM (EST)
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20. "Jerri -- from fba90392"
From the temporsry board...

fba90392
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 2:26:04 pm)
Reply I'm not surprised if it's Jerri
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Could it be time the whole group is finally against her? I certainly hope so.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:44 PM (EST)
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21. "Keith or Nick -- by Kentucky Joe"
From the temporary board...

Kentucky Joe
Registered User
posts: 12
(2/14/01 3:24:32 pm)
Reply Re: The Obstacle Course
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If Ogakor loses: Keith.......just because Jerri is the devil and she feels threatened by him.

If Kucha loses: Nick....because everybody knows that he is Gervase's brother.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:46 PM (EST)
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22. "Elisabeth -- by AthenaDax"
From the temporary board...

AthenaDax
Registered User
posts: 1
(2/14/01 3:35:58 pm)
Reply
Lizzie
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just to be different!
Plus I think she is the least obvious one and sometimes thats how the edit it.
Plus I really enjoyed how the trailer for ep4 was sequenced...Mike with knife, Liz crying, Mike with blood on his face
Could be a subtle/not so subtle hint.
Just a hunch though....
Athena Dax

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:48 PM (EST)
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23. "Rodger -- by m4md"
From the temporary board...

m4md
Unregistered User
(2/14/01 4:40:25 pm)
Reply Rodger
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not know why everyone is assuming that Ogakor loses. I think that MB has planted that thought in our mind. I think Kucha loses and Liz votes for Rodger and that is the surprise because he is voted out 4-3. Kimmi and Liz get into a fight later because Kimmi gives Lizzie a hard time about voting off Rodger. Therefore there is no longer an alliamce between Rodger and Liz. Just wild ramblings! What do you think?.

Do we have any evidence to suggest who loses the challenge other than people's feelings and the idea of three consecutive IC loses. This could start a string of Kucha loses.


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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:52 PM (EST)
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24. "Kentucky Joe (Rodger) -- by dangerboy (alucard77)"
From the temporary board...

alucard77
Registered User
posts: 1
(2/14/01 10:51:05 pm)
Reply Re: Time to vote
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ok, here's my take:
If Kuchi-Koo goes to Council I think they'll slice and dice Kentucky Joe. Dragging his a$$ through more competitions has got to be the last thing they want to do.

If Ogachore goes to Council I think Keith gets the axe. It's obvious he's the outsider of the group at the moment.

I believe Kuchi-Koo will go to Council if for no other reason that the producer and crew work it out so that the same team isn't punished over and over again. They spread the misery around for better sniping.


See ya later,
dangerboy (I don't want to change my cookie because I'm on other ezboards)

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 09:54 PM (EST)
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25. "Tina -- by castaway"
From the temporary board...

castaway
Unregistered User
(2/15/01 8:50:52 am)
Reply TINA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I haven't kept up with the posts lately, so I'm not for sure, but if Supe man & CJ have logic'd it out to be Tina, I'll go with their choices. I have faith in those 2! lol, okay I have no idea WHO is going. I think we could reasonably argue any one of the survivors at this point. There is no definate 'strong' link with any of these people. I could see Jerri going just as easily as Tina. I think we're having a harder time second guessing what is going to happen with this group, they are all so wishy-washy. Too many IFS in all of their strategies. For what I have read here tho, great work all of you who have presented your cases! You have me totally confused!

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 11:56 PM (EST)
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31. "Hey AK -- thanks a lot for all the copy/paste'ing"

Wow, thanks a bunch... being now able to focus back on predicting a bootee (instead of trying to keep our server from giving us the boot) I think we're ready to post our prediction -- granted, there's not much to go one, but we're still going to give it a shot
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Elwood 93 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 00:33 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Hey AK -- thanks a lot for all the copy/paste'ing"
Ya, thanks, AK. I came here to re-post, but see that it's already here (and I still stand by that logic
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11-10-00, 10:39 PM (EST)
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26. "I so hope it's Jerri"
One can dream you know. Jerri getting kicked off would make my night, second best would be Kimmi.

I have a nasty feeling that it's gonna be Rodger, which will make me just as mad if not more as I was over Maralyn.


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colbysincharge 71 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 10:41 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Final Predictions For Episode 4..."
rodger next week kimmi
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colbysincharge 71 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 10:44 PM (EST)
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28. "sorry...rodger"
next week kimmi
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moonbaby 17120 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-00, 10:55 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Rodger"
Too much of a liability in the challenges. He goes the way of Mad Dog.
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11-10-00, 11:02 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Final Predictions For Episode 4..."
It must be Mitch the Bitch! Weakest of the men on the team. They will keep Keith for the ICs. My 1st post!! Been a lurker since the 1st show. Couldn't get reg on SS so I tried here last summer and enjoy the company here much better.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 00:46 AM (EST)
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33. "Mitchell"
Conspiracy Jim and I have been arguing all week that Tina goes tonight. There is no good reason to believe she doesn't. So why am I changing my pick now at the (almost) last minute?

1. Debb says she became good friends with Mitchell. We know she wasn't in Oz for a significant part of the game.

2. The face time theory argues that an Ogie male goes tonight. I doubt it will be Colby, so it's probably either Mitchell or Keith.

3. Keith hasn't lost as much weight as was reported so far, and I doubt that any of the survivors ever go on a diet after being voted off. Liposuction, yes; diet, no. These people are HUNGRY when they get off. Remember Kelly's answering machine message that her mother and sister weren't home because she ate them?

4. If Tina completed a mini-triathlon, she has at least some upper body strength from swimming. Mitch doesn't appear to have any. If this challenge involves rappelling, I can easily see Mitchell losing it for his team.

5. Mitchell told his team he felt weak. Why anyone who wasn't trying to get voted off would say this is beyond me. Keith doesn't feel weak.

6. I agree that it would be a major strategic error for Jerri to lose Mitch now. But I'm still not convinced that Jerri is the shiniest apple in the barrel. I'm even beginning to be convinced that she may lose control of her "alliance" (3 straight losses undermine people's confidence in a leader).

7. Kucha won't lose immunity as long as Rodger sits out.

8. I believe the pre-game report that one tribe loses immunity three times in a row. Practically, that has to be Ogakor.

9. Rodger may have been in NYC on Tuesday, but why would he schedule an appointment with the governor of Kentucky for his boot week (next Tuesday)?

Problems with this pick:

1. It ensures that Rodger will not be the next Kuchie voted off, even though he is the logical target. But the fight between two Kuchie women this week may lead to one of them getting booted.

2. It significantly weakens Jerri's grip on Ogakor.

3. There is NO REAL EVIDENCE for it!

Still, I like Mitchell to depart as of right now. After all, what's the fun of being out on a limb if no one has a saw?

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11-11-00, 01:12 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Mitchell feels weak"
Right, Mitch said that. I didn't tape the show so I can't go back and look but didn't he say he felt weak BEFORE they caught the fish?
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 01:03 AM (EST)
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34. "Results so far"
Amazing. It would be simpler for us if the Kuchies lose the IC, because we seem to have no clear idea of what the Ogies are going to do:

Tina -- 8 votes (not counting the SB official vote)
Mitchell -- 8 votes
Rodger -- 6 votes
Keith -- 2.5 votes
Kimmi -- 2 votes
Jerri -- 2 votes
Elizabeth -- 1 vote
Nick -- 0.5 votes

Total: 30 votes

Virgins (no votes): Michael, Alicia, Jeff, Amber, Colby.

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11-11-00, 01:32 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Results so far"
Its kind of funny that we have no votes for Michael, when a few of the tribe members have been noticably annoyed with him. Granted that does not mean a lot, but it seems like it would merit at least a vote or two.
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dangerboy 128 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 02:25 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Results so far"
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-00 AT 02:27 AM (EST)

I thought about Michael but I think dragging Kentucky Joe through another challenge will grate on them more than Mikey thinking he's in charge.

THANX AK for moving the temporary board postings over. WHew! A dead muslim cleric who's computer literate - who'da thunk it?
hehe


j

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Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 05:04 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Tina (Ogres) OR Rodger (Kuchos)"
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-00 AT 05:08 AM (EST)

Explanation, of sorts.....Because I have no idea
which tribe loses tonight:

1.) If Ogakor --- I think all of them, even Keith,
knows Tina is a back-stabbing bitch who whines too
much and can't even be counted on to win immunities.
Keith and Mitchell are safe until next time but
Colby, Jerri & Amber are smart enough to know Tina
must go.

2.) If Kucha --- I think Rodger will get the shaft
simply because his "dead weight" factor is in every
persons mind. That is why little Lizzie is trying
to lend him her protection...like her bony kittenish
ass was protection, please! Alicia & Jeff won't have
any trouble getting Nick and Michael to vote off ole
Kentucky Joe.

Dalton

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md23rewls 23 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 04:03 AM (EST)
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38. "Jerri or Tina"
Tina goes because she is the biggest asset to the team and they would vote out anyone that is causing them to lose. However, I think a counter- alliance might form, and their goal would be to know out Jerri because she is leading the alliance and they know it. That is why, if there is a tie, I think it will be between Tina and Jerri, but in the end Tina might be able to win if the alliance breaks down and one member goes against Jerri.
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666Advocate 17 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 06:29 AM (EST)
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42. "Just to be different"
I believe TC will end in a tie tonight, but I am not sold on the Ogakor losing three straight theory..but I will make a pick from each tribe..although I think it will be Kucha going to Tc this week with a Mike, Nick tie and Nick taking a walk. If MB did not put the three in a row rumor in circulation and it is Ogakor I would see a Tina, Mitch tie with Mitch walking away.
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flying squirrel 290 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 04:12 AM (EST)
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39. "Mitchell"
but why, I ask myself? then I answer ... maybe Ogawhore can't fish because of the forest fire ... maybe Keith and Colby go off to look for food ... and maybe the two of them vote together with Tina against Mitch ... I remember the entire Kelly-Susan rift, which we never saw last show until AFTER Colleen left ... what do we really know about the voting alignments, other than the fact that they exist ... are we not seeing Amber now becuase the producers want her to seem untainted by her association with Jerri later on?

Anyway, I like the irony of Mitchell voting Maralyn off because she lost a challenge for his team followed by Mitch getting voted off for the same reason. Finally, if I were an Ogawhore, I'd want "stick man" off first, so that's my vote.

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kandlo 25 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 04:37 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Final Predictions For Episode 4..."
ive enjoyed reading everyones theories these last few weeks.
its addictive and its time i take a stab:
i believe kucha is the stronger tribe and if the IC is a physical one i think theyll pull it out, so who goes from ogakor?
i think its gotta be keith
i think the jerris kids alliance will stay strong and if you do the math (as im sure they did) they figurethe 4 (j,c,a,m) will make the merger and be a factor like S1's 4 person alliance (r,r,k,s) of course this is all theory and lets just hope its a great episode with lots of suspense and surprises.
so far episode 2 was my kave by far
il read ya soon
k
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 08:27 AM (EST)
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43. "FINAL TALLIES"
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-00 AT 09:18 PM (EST)

Well, the collective wisdom of this board turned out to be significantly better than some other boards that were misled by rumors. Final tallies for E4:

Mitchell: 9.5 votes (!!)
Tina: 9 votes
Rodger: 6.5 votes
Keith: 3.5 votes
Jerri: 2.5 votes
Kimmi: 2 votes
Elisabeth: 1 vote
Nick: 1 vote

Total: 35 votes

Thanks to Superman for using his x-ray vision to start us off in the right direction and to flying squirrel for casting the vote that put Mitchell into the lead for good!

BTW, one of the rumors from S1 was that the tiebreaker was the number of votes previously cast against you. Some of the posters (including me) had kept track of this as S1 went on. If MB had actually planned to apply this as the tiebreaker then (as he did tonight) after two ties ... if Kelly only wouldn't have changed her vote from Dicque to Soozin on the revote after the tie ... Dicque would have been gone and finished fourth! Kelly, you HAD VICTORY WITHIN YOUR GRASP!

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Tamia2001 0 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 08:41 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: FINAL TALLIES"
Well,I guessed that Mitchell would get voted off,but with reservations.I was expecting a surprise,which only Kucha could have provided.I was giving too much credit to the planted hints.
There was no surprise after all,and those of us who predicted Mitchell were...well...right.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 09:38 AM (EST)
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45. "Surprise to the average viewer, not us"
Tamia, we discussed these ambiguous hints in S1 and concluded that we couldn't put much stock in them, because they are written for the average Survivor viewer who hasn't spent hours reading up on the show on the Web. If you were Joe Febeetz from Reynoldsburg, you probably were shocked to see a tie vote and to see Mitch go even though Jerri had been so obviously focused on Keith. Heck, you probably were even more shocked that Rodger is still there.

We weren't shocked, but we weren't supposed to be, because we are NOT average viewers.

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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 01:55 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: FINAL TALLIES"
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-00 AT 02:03 PM (EST)

While the ultimate outcome is unchanged (because it's final?), the final tallies appear wrong. In any event, "predictions" were open where people could list virtually as many as they wanted, mostly "if Kucha loses and if Ogakor loses." Some gave "second" guesses which seem to be counted as a half vote when at other times, discounted. And what about the "Official thread?" That proclaimed going with Tina! By my count it's Tina. What, were these counts done in Florida?

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-00, 09:52 PM (EST)
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47. "Just call me "Jeb""
Basically, I acted as a one-man election board. Don't like it? Go see my friends on the Supreme Court!

Seriously, there were six votes where people could have been seen as split. Three of them were posted on the temporary board, and three were posted on this board. I counted four of these as split votes. But two of the temporary board posts, from new posters ItzLisa and Tamia, seemed to point only one way in the written analysis. I thought that, being new, they may not have understood that we do not pick someone from each tribe but instead pick just one person on this thread. Their analysis seemed focused enough to know who that person would be. Since, like the Florida courts, we put high weight on the intent of the voter here, I counted them as votes ONLY for the person to whom I thought the analysis pointed: in ItzLisa's case, for Keith; in Tamia's case, for Mitchell. I didn't do it to manipulate the outcome, because (as you can see above) I did it in the very first count that I posted, before the outcome was clear.

As far as the issue of what the board picked, like ss.com, we have always had two separate picks. One is the "official" pick, made by the SB Webmaster, which was Tina. The other is the consensus pick (the "sense of the board"), made by the votes of the individual posters in the voting thread. In this vote, that was Mitchell.

We also have the capability for a third pick, made by people voting in the poll on the SB.com home page, although all those votes prove is what a good job MB has done of fooling the public!

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-01, 07:08 PM (EST)
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48. "...but if I'm Jeb..."
then who is Katherine Harris?
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-01, 09:19 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Just call me "Jeb""
Well, I guess we won't have this problem in the future. BTW, many voters (especially in Florida) probably didn't get their votes registered properly or at all because of things like "interpretation." If it isn't clear it isn't counted is generally the rule. Don't get me wrong, I support your efforts and look forward to future "polls."


"I support Dubya because he took the oath, and would do the same had what's his name won."

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