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"SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-05, 07:10 AM (EST)
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"SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
One Survivor's attempt to forge an alliance is overheard by a lurking tribemate.

A castaway is livid after a tribemate targets her for elimination in a Reward Challenge, which leads to an eruption back at camp.

Paranoia fills the air, leading one Survivor to declare, "Everyone is lying, even the people you'd least expect!"

Tribal Council is full of surprises when one Survivor takes advantage of the group setting to call out a tribemate. How will this influence the vote?


Discuss!

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Chapdog 11-18-05 1
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 LibraRising 11-18-05 3
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 kingfish 11-18-05 2
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 esquire 11-18-05 8
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Flowerpower 11-18-05 4
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 knuckles487 11-18-05 5
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 JazzyJax 11-18-05 6
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Surviette 11-18-05 7
       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 tidefan1987 11-18-05 9
           RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 emydi 11-18-05 10
           RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 bostonrobfan 11-18-05 16
           RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Surviette 11-19-05 18
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-18-05 11
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 emydi 11-18-05 12
       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 fallingtogether 11-18-05 13
 RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-18-05 14
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Flowerpower 11-18-05 15
   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 emydi 11-18-05 17
       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-20-05 19
           RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 mockingbird 11-20-05 20
               RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-20-05 21
               RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-20-05 22
                   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Myrla21 11-20-05 23
                   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 mockingbird 11-20-05 24
                       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-20-05 26
                       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-20-05 27
                           RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-20-05 28
                               RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 mockingbird 11-20-05 29
                   RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Loquatrix 11-20-05 25
                       RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11 Outfrontgirl 11-21-05 30

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Chapdog 27 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-05, 09:13 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
EASY

One Survivor's attempt to forge an alliance is overheard by a lurking tribe mate.

definitely Gary Judd interaction overheard by one of steff, raff, Lydia, Cindy.

A castaway is livid after a tribe mate targets her for elimination in a Reward Challenge, which leads to an eruption back at camp.
Key work 'her' screams sore looser stef. Makes total sense that Judd goes after her.

Paranoia fills the air, leading one Survivor to declare, "Everyone is lying, even the people you'd least expect!"
Sounds like Judd

Tribal Council is full of surprises when one Survivor takes advantage of the group setting to call out a tribe mate. How will this influence the vote?
Most likely Judd or Steff obviously there rift from this week will be aired out in Tribal Council.

Prediction: Judd gone unless Judd wins immunity - Then Gary Toast.


Is it me or are they making this way to easy as of late?

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11-18-05, 12:49 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
Key work 'her' screams sore looser stef. Makes total sense that Judd goes after her.

Gotta be, with her quote in previews about "If you think this doesn't show me were loyalties lie, you're wrong."


A kyngsladye/IceCat masterpiece.

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kingfish 20674 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-05, 10:48 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-05 AT 01:26 PM (EST)

Hey FloPo, not fair. You're supposed to tell us what it means, not let us loose on our own!

OK, seriously,
First impression is that all of these MD's stem from the first one, "One Survivor's attempt to forge an alliance is overheard by a lurking tribemate."

Gary seems to be playing a pretty good game, he is in the minority but no panic, not digging the hole deeper, still trying to spot strategies, and alert to taking advantage of events (RC last week esp). Still looking for a receiver even though a linebacker is menacing his health. Reminds me of the situation Chris (Palau?) faced. (Ami as the linebacker then. Ha Ha.)

So, assuming Gary is the alliance tempter, who from the other five would it be with? He and Danni need two from the five, and one would assume he would target the less secure, Lydia stands out (esp after last weeks RC), then Cindi and/or Rafe.

Judd should be the target Gary hopes to deflect votes to, so an alliance with him would be a waste of energy. And although Steph would be a good F2 partner for him, her secure position would mean that she is less pliable.

So he is spotted by whom talking alliance with Lydia/Cindi/rafe? Could be Stephanie, but Judd would be my guess, his temper and lack of control is a matter of record.

ETA: per LR (above, and thanks) "her" would probably mean Steph.

Steph is aware of Gary as a threat, and he's the most likely next boot. But, Steph etal may tire of Judd as she did Jamie. They could boot Judd and still have the numbers. Gary? Judd? Gary seems like the most likely, but Judd - maybe?

BTW, although I think there's a cold beer's (within Judd's arm reach) chance of surviving that this will happen, they better be thinking about booting Steph pretty soon unless they want to just hand her an F2 seat.


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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-05, 04:48 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"

>Judd should be the target Gary
>hopes to deflect votes to,
>so an alliance with him
>would be a waste of
>energy. And although Steph would
>be a good F2 partner
>for him, her secure position
>would mean that she is
>less pliable.
>

The interesting thing about the game played by Jon (of the fake dead grandma fame), was that he constantly switched alliances, always getting the people who felt they were on the outside and about to be voted out to join him out of desperation. People who didn't like him kept voting with him out of desperation. That tells me that Judd should not be the guy Gary goes after, but instead should be the guy that he tries to get to join him and Danni. They would then need to add only one person (my guess would be Cindy) to be in a final 4 majority

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11-18-05, 01:56 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-05 AT 01:58 PM (EST)

Okay King, I'll give it a whirl!

One Survivor's attempt to forge an alliance is overheard by a lurking tribemate.
This is the toughest one, imo, as it really could refer to any of them. I am leaning toward Gary being the one attempting to forge an alliance with one of the axis of evil....but who knows...it really could be anyone.

A castaway is livid after a tribemate targets her for elimination in a Reward Challenge, which leads to an eruption back at camp.
Okay, this, imo, is an easy one. The reward challenge will be a challenge that exposes loyalties and alliances....like the face mask bash in allstars and the chopping the ropes of another in Amazon. Steph will be the one who is livid after Judd targets her for elimination in a Reward Challenge, which will lead to an eruption back at camp....we heard her ranting in the preview, "you think that this doesn't show me where your loyalties lie, you are sadly mistaken!"


Paranoia fills the air, leading one Survivor to declare, "Everyone is lying, even the people you'd least expect!" I just think this is something Rafe would declare...nothing surprising at this stage of the game.

Tribal Council is full of surprises when one Survivor takes advantage of the group setting to call out a tribemate. How will this influence the vote? I think that Judd aiming for Steph in the RC will infuriate her and she and her minions will move Judd up to the top of the boot list. But, I think Judd will win immunity, thus deflecting the boot to poor Gary. However, at TC, Judd will indeed expose Steph to the group as best he can...(Could also fit Gary in here as exposing Steph to the rest of the group in a last ditch effort to save himself...)
Unfortunately it won't influence the vote...

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knuckles487 178 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-05, 02:14 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"

VolcanicGlass
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Posts: 839
(11/18/05 11:58 am)
Reply
S11 Ep11 - Press Release
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JUDD BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARANOID AT CAMP AFTER LEARNING HE WAS NOT CONSULTED ABOUT VOTING JAMIE OUT, ON "SURVIVOR: GUATEMALA -- THE MAYA EMPIRE,"
THURSDAY, NOV. 24

"Everything Is Personal" -- Having not been consulted about the last Tribal Council vote, Judd becomes increasingly paranoid that his alliance may be in jeopardy, on SURVIVOR: GUATEMALA -- THE MAYA EMPIRE, Thursday, Nov. 24 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

As Gary attempts to create an alliance with Lydia, he is overheard by Judd, who is pretending to be asleep in the shelter. A castaway is livid after a tribe mate targets them to be one of the first eliminated at the Reward Challenge, which leads to an eruption back at camp. Paranoia fills the air at camp causing one castaway to declare, "Everyone is lying, even the people you'd least expect!" Tribal Council is full of surprises when one tribe member takes advantage of the group's unstable alliance to call out a fellow tribe mate. Will this influence the vote?

And, the twelfth member is voted out of the tribe.

----------------------------------------------------

Just thought I would bring this over in case nobody else saw it. Apparently Gary is the one overheard trying to form an alliance.

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11-18-05, 03:22 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
>Tribal Council is full of surprises when one Survivor takes advantage of the group setting to call out a tribemate. How
>will this influence the vote?

>I think that Judd aiming for Steph in the RC will infuriate her and she and her minions will move Judd up to the top of the boot list. But, I think Judd will win immunity, thus deflecting the boot to poor Gary. However, at TC, Judd will indeed expose Steph to the group as best he can...(Could also fit Gary in here as exposing Steph to the rest of the group in a last ditch effort to save himself...)
>
>Unfortunately it won't influence the vote...


This could definitely come to pass!
-Judd belatedly realizes Steph is going to walk away with the game.
-Judd wins immunity, and it's Steph vs. Gary.
-Gary under heat calls Judd out to avoid being pegged with the "liar" title with his min-idol info (which had previously been shared in private w/ Steph and Rafe.)
-Judd in turn calls Stehanie out as he read the clue out loud to her.

Same thing could happen if Gary wins immunity, and it's Judd vs. Steph. Sounds like Judd and Steph had been fighting for a while after the RC. Gonna be good!

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11-18-05, 04:43 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
1.It would be ironic if Judd is the lurker who hears Gary attempting to oust him!

2.Steph

3.Judd. Even Cindy and Lydia knew about voting off Jamie, so I think Judd considers them the liars "you'd least expect".

4.Gary calls out Judd. On SL, Dalton asked Jamie whether Gary
ever discussed Judd lying about the hidden idol. Jamie replied,
"He did. He did at Tribal Council". I think Jamie actually witnessed this as a juror!

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11-18-05, 04:52 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
What Jamie said on Survivor Live is that Gary called Judd out at the same Tribal Counsel where he used the hidden Immunity Idol not at a future one. Bobby Jon confirmed that as well last week.

Another clue to Judd being the one to go this week. There is no Survivor Live on Friday because of Thanksgiving, it is going to be shown on Monday. Since the boot would normally not still be in NYC on Monday, how convenient it is that Judd lives there.

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11-18-05, 05:52 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
but ToT's spoiler says he's gone after the family visit that he wins and supposedly takes Steph and Cindy...and it does not appear that Ep. 11 is the family visit. But if Judd goes after Steph in the coconut RC challeng in Ep. 11, why would he take her in Ep. 12...does she turn back to him and vote Gary off in Ep. 11?

I think maybe Steph wins immunity in Ep. 11.

hear me out...

At first Gary could be trying to sway Lydia before IC to vote Judd but then when she hmmms and haws as Lydia always does and doesn't get back to him...Gary goes to Judd to vote out Lydia because they are both vulnerable and Steph cannot go bc of II


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11-18-05, 10:42 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
>What Jamie said on Survivor Live
>is that Gary called Judd
>out at the same Tribal
>Counsel where he used the
>hidden Immunity Idol not at
>a future one. Bobby
>Jon confirmed that as well
>last week.
>

And they cut that part out? Why? I think most people wanted to see Gary letting everyone know that Judd was lying.

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11-19-05, 10:28 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
>Gary called Judd out at the same
>Tribal Council where he used the
>hidden Immunity Idol not at a
>future one.

Here are the quotes from Survivor Live part 2:

Caller: After the tribal council when Bobby Jon went home did anyone bring up the fact that Judd was lying about the hidden
immunity idol?

Dalton: Great question........

Jenna: If I were Gary I would have saved it........

Jamie: Gary brought it up.

Dalton: How did he bring it up?

Jamie: He said you've been lying. He brought it up at Tribal Council. You've been lying the whole time. You said it was on the ground and it was in the air. He brought it up in the jungle some time.

Dalton: How did Judd react?

Jamie: Judd said he was just protecting his lead. Things like that.

It sounds to me as if Jamie contradicts himself by first saying it was brought up at Tribal Council and then saying it was brought up in the jungle. I don't think it matters what the original question was bc we all know how well Jamie listens!
Maybe he realized he slipped and then tried to cover. Just a guess.


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11-18-05, 06:14 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
I always feel ready to discuss Thursday night before this thread goes up, so I put my ideas here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/6135.shtml#25

That was before the Press Release. Now we know that Judd overhears Gary, which is one of the options I was thinking of. Very helpful of CBS to make that clue explicit. Yay for that!

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11-18-05, 06:26 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
I think you are right it will be Gary...but I'm not so sure that Judd has immunity...it would be much more interesting if he did not and Steph did...and Steph sides again with Judd and offs Gary..he does supposedly take her on Family visit which is supposedly now Ep. 12. Right now, he would pick anyone but Steph...how does she get back into his good graces... by voting for Gary over Judd when they are both vulnerable...

and Gary goes to Judd to try to form a "weak" alliance and oust Lydia after she is hesitant when he approaches her earlier in the ep???

I'm seeing Lydia as the F5 boot now...


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11-18-05, 06:34 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
I don't know. Why would Rafe and Steph cut Lydia before Danni? Wouldn't they want to keep Lydia (who Gary considers undeserving) over Danni (who everyone seems to like)? I'm just having a hard time believing Danni makes it into the final four. Rafe, Steph and Lydia seem tight, and Cindy has always been loyal.

hmmm....maybe I'm missing some major spoiler here about Danni being in the final 2.

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11-18-05, 07:55 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-05 AT 08:09 PM (EST)

Biancaxxx has done some vidcap work at MESS on this and TDT agrees that we probably have another RAFE IC win. I posted link and caps in the Vidcap thread.

The IC will be the listen to a story and remember the answers as you run around and collect things. Rafe is SO the obvious winner with his knowledge of Mayan culture and brilliant mind and memory. Combine that with his physical agility ...

This means no immunity for Judd or Gary, I think. So that means they have to resort to other tactics to make the other one the target. That would explain a calling out at TC.

And we see now that the RC is the old mask breaking thing. Flowerpower has pointed out that the caps of Rafe, Judd and Cindy are recycled so I'm editing what I said at first based on TDT. I could still see Cindy winning. She or Lydia have a good shot at being ignored, and Cindy as a zoologist has a good shot at getting the trivia right. Cindy and Rafe both.

Guess CBS needed to post feasting shots so as to promote Thanksgiving feast vs. famine theme. So recycle that gorging!

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11-18-05, 08:49 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
Totally agree with you, OFG! And by the way, Gary makes a good "OFG" candidate this week, don't you think?


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-05, 10:58 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-05 AT 11:17 PM (EST)

I agree I think Cindy (or Rafe) wins the RC break the pot challenge

And Rafe is a good choice but might it be Steph...I'll look at your other post. ETA: I see the sleeve it is Rafe

Also, if Gary and Judd both lose, why not join together with Danni and Cindy to oust Steph or Lydia? going to TC in he said he said she said is much more risky..it just doesn't feel like a Gary move to me...maybe Gary tries and Judd is fed up with Gary bc he earlier eavesdropped Gary talking to Lydia (about booting him most likely)

But I guess Cindy doesnt' have anything to gain by switching now...she's 4th with Steph Lydia Rafe and would be 4th with Gary Judd Danni..and hopefully Cindy would be smart enough not to rock her UTR boat if she would happen to make to F2 if she turned now she'd lose the votes of Steph Lydia and Rafe...ETA: I read Fishercat's post over in Fanatics in Rat's thread and he made a point it might be better for Cindy to turn and go 2/2 with Judd at F4 v. danni/gary...I guess Cindy would have to balance that against losing votes...but wiht Judd as her f2 partner...but Fcat also says Judd probably won't see the forest thru the trees...

So I guess Gary is reduced to acting like Judd at TC and it will be interesting!!

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11-20-05, 02:22 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 04:30 AM (EST)

I just got around to reading the Ep10 Insider transcripts (thank you! to mollysgrama at Sucks) and there's some good stuff from Jamie on the alliance dynamics:

I donít think Iíll ever be 100% confident that Stephanie hasnít switched Rafe and hasnít switched Cindy, because Rafe has Cindy. Me, Judd and Lydia are on our own, standing. I need to get to that six before I feel like I got a strong three.

I thought Rafe was the one "handling" Cindy just because I think Rafe is making sure he is the intermediary, smart way to never get left out of the loop. Also he has gotten to know Cindy as shown by his comment to Jamie:

Jamie - Iíve never really talked with Cindy
Rafe Ė Really? Well, sheís best in one on one conversations.

To me, this explains why Cindy hasn't been willing to flip.

Re the negative turn in Lydia's editing that we've been discussing, it appears the editing could have shown much worse than it did:

Jamie: it really hurts that Lydia voted against me because I took her so far and took care of her so much and lost challenges with her. Itís going to be hard for me to forgive her for that. ...
....................
But I think what hurts me the most is I asked Lydia today. As much as I warned Lydia about the times she was in trouble, she couldnít tell me I was in trouble. Even though I knew she was lyiní to me. It hurts when you see good people go bad and itís going to be the hardest for me to forgive her. It seems to me she bit the hand that fed her.

I'm not putting that much weight on Jamie's feelings about it as he was in a paranoid state, but, it appears there was a scene we could have been shown where she lied to his face (as Steph did to Gary). Even if Jamie went to her before she was enlisted to boot him, if we had seen him ask her we would have really wondered why she didn't tell him.

Lydia made one of those tough game decisions and I definitely think they could have edited her even more negatively had they wished.

The big piece of information here, to me, is the confirmation that Steph talks to Rafe who talks to Cindy (and also to Lydia, as we are shown.) We've also seen that Judd talks mostly to Jamie (or did) and Steph (did).
.......

Rafe (votes Jamie) Ė You asked me when I voted you out, to blindside you and to say a mean comment. Well, yes, youíre getting blindsided but Iím not going to take you up on the mean comment. I think youíre a great guy and I think you let this game kind of take you away from who you really are. I hope weíre friends when this is all over.

That could explain Jamie's "blindsiding" comment. It also may explain why Rafe chose to do that to a jury member.

I feel strongly that Rafe is not really taking orders from Steph; he is just doing a great job of not appearing to be the one making the decisions to cut people from the team.

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11-20-05, 03:07 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 03:55 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 03:49†AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 03:37†AM (EST)

Just watched SurvivorLive and read a transcript of a florida radio interview with jamie. Mentioned his dissapointment with Lydia, also was really really close with Judd. He said he loved him like a brother-and hinted that Judd's feelings for him were like his own deceased twin brother(Judd's that is). Both twins. Very tight connection.
Also said that he and Judd were planning on voting Steph out after Gary.
Says he still likes everyone there-but has some really harsh feelings towards Steph, Rafe, and Gary.
Said Rafe wont leave Steph's side, sleeps with her, always near her, lapdog etc. also said if Steph had said no to Rafe in regards to the question of voting him(Jamie) off-they wouldn't have voted him off. Insists she is top dog. (Incidentally-if some of you are right and Rafe is in charge-then he must be brilliant to have Jamie, Brandon, Margaret, and BJ fooled since they have all said Steph is in charge of the entire tribe which, personally, has made me lose just a little tiny bit of my respect for her gameplay as I never think it's best to show one's control). I tend to think it is collaborative on hers and Rafe's part.
He said that both Lydia and Cindy had no gameplan.
The most interesting part, to me, was the fact that he was so very close to Judd, and had immediate plans to vote off Steph.
He also said that he and Steph were closer earlier during the switch-and that they swung Judd over to their side-and that gradually he grew closer to Judd and started distrusting Steph.
HE ALSO SAID THAT HE KNEW THAT STEPH WANTED HIM GONE WHEN HE WON IMMUNITY-and that's when his plans to oust her began to form. I wonder why in episode 9 when they showed us Steph saying she wanted to get rid of him(and bad mouthing him with Cindy)-they didn't let us know that Jamie knew of her plans? I'm curious if she mentioned it to Judd then? or hid it as in this last episode? I think that Jamie's knowledge of this might tell us something. If Steph didn't tell judd then-in episode 9 when the idea originally came up-then how did Jamie know? Remember, he continues to say in post show interviews that Lydia gave him no warning-at least in this episode-but did she warn him in ep 9 when he had immunity? or did CINDY perhaps tell Judd-who then told jamie? Cindy was sitting right next to Steph when she was badmouthing him. I suppose it was lydia-but Jamie has never said she warned him.
Now, considering his closeness with Judd-I think that there's a possibility Judd's target at the next Reward challenge might be Lydia and not Steph. I realize that she doesn't seem the type at all to be livid-but it is a possibility.
There is so much lying in this particular show that I find it extremely difficult to analyze(which is why I'm on the boards more this season)-and I'm loving every minute of not knowing!
Danni was barely mentioned-something about her Dogs on tape and the birthday swimming party.
M

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-05, 05:08 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
That is interesting stuff, mockingbird! I had been meaning to go find the other Jamie interviews.
>>HE ALSO SAID THAT HE KNEW THAT STEPH WANTED HIM GONE WHEN HE WON IMMUNITY-and that's when his plans to oust her began to form.

There's so much that goes on in camp they don't show us (which I find annoying at times), but there's also the possibility that Jamie "KNEW" because his paranoia told him so. Listening to his gut, picking up on a vibe, noticing that people didn't respond too well to his going off at the first IC. In his state of mind, if he says I KNEW IT it might just mean "I knew it in my gut" and now it's confirmed. Steph did want him off and if she tried to deny it, she's not that great a liar, plus he already thought everything she said was a lie ...

Jamie's Final Words ... excerpt:
I could tell, today, that everybody was lyiní. Iíve got a sixth sense for it. So I kind of knew I was goiní out. Iím not too mad about Stephanie because she is a liar Ė she always has been, since Palau.

Someone may be feeding him information as you speculate, I don't know, but to me it looked like everyone was trying to calm him down by playing down his danger, including Judd. In Insider, Jamie talks about thinking too much in the jungle, and how it made him crazy with all the mosquito whining ... he was losing it.

Was Judd planning on turning against Steph with Jamie and Lydia at F7? How, exactly? They needed one more vote, Gary was supposed to be gone, Cindy is with Rafe, and there's no sign at all they were courting Danni. Sounds like a half-baked plan that involved trying to turn Rafe as we saw last episode. I'm not at all sure Judd wanted Jamie to make that pitch. I think Jamie was a loose cannon at that point, but the way he threw Judd's name around to Rafe may have already gotten back to Steph and that might have been why they didn't inform Judd, fearing that he would try to rally the underdogs and pull a coup.

But if Jamie wasn't authorized to make that offer for Judd, Judd will be rightfully pissed at being distrusted. (Jamie's like Jamie in BB6, only much dumber, sewing paranoia all around him!)

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11-20-05, 05:26 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
>>(Incidentally-if some of you are right and Rafe is in charge-then he must be brilliant to have Jamie, Brandon, Margaret, and BJ fooled since they have all said Steph is in charge of the entire tribe which, personally, has made me lose just a little tiny bit of my respect for her gameplay as I never think it's best to show one's control). I tend to think it is collaborative on hers and Rafe's part.

Well, I'm not sure how the other Rafe fans think, but when I say he is running Steph I'm not thinking of him being de facto in charge. More like he has a better mind and a better grasp of this game than Steph could ever dream of, and he is letting her be in charge and call the shots; it's his job to manipulate her mindset in subtle ways so she calls the shots the way he wants them to go.

Steph is the kind of bossy person who seems to like a lot of reassurance. You don't argue with a person like that, just give them positive feedback when you like the track they're on, a nudge of encouragement when they're stuck and undecided, and plant a few seeds of doubt when they propose something you don't like and help them talk themselves out of it. Suggest strategy without trying to lead.

Isn't that what Capricorns are known for, the skill of managing from behind the scenes without being the flashy front person?

Rafe said from the get-go that leaders get voted off. He let Gary and Steph assume the top dog roles, but that doesn't mean he doesn't know how to steer.

I've collected a bunch of interesting facts and quotes on Rafe from before he started this game. Maybe I should start a Rafe thread and post them, as it seems to me his gameplay is underestimated. What do you think?

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Myrla21 30 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-05, 10:13 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
Yes Please!

Fairly new to posting, but long time lurker. I would love to see what you have on Rafe.

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mockingbird 61 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-05, 01:03 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
OFG,
I think that Jamie said on SL(and that was at 3 AM-I kept going back and rewatching-then updating my above post) that Cindy was the other person. He definitely said "JUDD HAD CINDY AND I HAD LYDIA" when mentioning his plans to get rid of Steph.
As for Rafe(by the way-my favorite player but I don't want to cloud my thoughts-I do not think he's "suggesting" to Steph and controlling her thoughts subtly-I truly think it's collaborative). You know, do you ever look for similarities between yourself and the players? I keep thinking as a Gay man AND a Sagittarius/Capricorn cusp--12/19. The Capricorns I know are not subtle-they are quiet leaders-but leaders nonetheless. Not in the Leo sense. I think there is a difference between sublety and quiet leadership.Actually kind of like Tina and Tom(we we'ren't shown Tina's leadership in the editing. The Sagittarians I know are NOT leaders-but they control without other parties knowing-including themselves I think. Think of comversations you have with a group of people if a Sagittarian in there-ever notice how a subject is brought up? In past Survivors, for instance, think of Julie(with the Mia/Twila incident--and Vecepia with nearly every argument in that season regarding Sean/Hunter or Sean/Paschal. Jamie said it bothered him how Steph always kept her emotions in check(in interviews) and on the show he mentioned how calm Rafe was. So I really think you have two people who are working together. I admit that I am giving Steph more credit this year than others on these boards-I can't help but be amazed that she's gone this far-I would never have allowed it if I were playing with her. She charms people-and she fights hard-so I respect that. The Sucks board is so completely tainted in their personal opinions of Steph that they aren't analyzing as well as usual in my opinion.
OFG I want to know what you think about my suggestion that Judd is furious with Lydia rather than Steph-his closeness to Jamie makes me think SHE would be his target instead. Also-Stephs comment in the previews about Lydia not getting to eat-boo hoo-what does that mean? Why would she say that? It could be Lydia being upset about the RC.
If Steph is the leader then like I said-my respect for her gameplay has lessened-she shouldn't put herself in that position.
Rewatch the Rafe/Steph/Lydia plotting moment--very powerfully done-and to me, very subtle on both their parts.
Astrologically-if Rafe were a Cancer-I'd say you're 100 per cent right that he's controlling her without her knowing.
Oh and OFG-nice to see you over ar sucks!
PS--rafe is certainly more like Tina than Ghandia or Ted(both Caps).
His Gameplay is not underestimated in my opinion-he's brilliant, his relationships with everyone there, his quiet strength both physically and mentally, he's really a perfect player-the best one there-but that does not mean he's controlling Steph. Also, some posters on this board jumped on the anti Rafe bandwagon a few weeks ago simply because Rafe didn't switch sides when Brandon got voted out. Why? He made the absolute right decision-yet he was called spineless, wimpy, etc. That, to me, was clouded analysis from some posters. rafe would have been a fool to have done that. And isn't it interesting that it took the "axis of evil" to break up the "axis of evil? Not outside players.
M
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-05, 03:03 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 03:05 PM (EST)

mockingbird, I liked what you said in disagreement with what I said, and I think you are right that I was on the wrong track about the way Rafe is staying low key. I am actually on the same page with what you wrote about him above. (and I too don't think Rafe is wimpy because he didn't make a dumb move).

I was trying to reconcile the perception of Rafe as lap dog wrapped around Rafe's finger that we are getting from the booted players. That was saying to me that Steph is the one who seems to be laying out the strategy when the alliance talked. So if as you say Rafe is a co-partner and expressing his opinions as much as Steph, then for some reason these guys aren't seeing it.

This may be no more than the old story that when a woman has a strong opinion and gets her way she is THE BOSS, and when a man has a low key way of expressing opinions in comparison he may be seen as deferential and submissive by these young jock guys (with some gay stereotypes in their heads).

They talk about Rafe always sleeping with Steph as a sign that Steph is controlling Rafe and that he has to cling to her. It could just as much be that she is deriving emotional comfort. It may be he is smartly keeping her from being approached and swayed by other players.

Steph's game--well, to me it is pretty basic strategy. She plays whole-heartedly, but all I see in her game is that she saw the need to pull together an alliance, that she had the good luck to come into the merge with more numbers, and that she got a strong ally (Rafe) and a couple of players like Cindy and Lydia, and in some sense Judd (because he was alone and needy), who are willing to ride along. Had her alliance consisted of Gary, Brandon, Danni, and BJ, I'm not at all sure she'd be running the show with all those more alpha types.

Rafe, OTOH, I think if he'd been put in a bad position like Brian he could have worked his way out of it without dooming himself as a perceived schemer like Brian. Rafe has a kind of natural authority that is quiet but persuasive, doesn't come off as arrogant. He's the kind of nice guy you want on your side. But as it turned out, Rafe didn't need to play hard to get into a great position, so he has played rather low key except for when the situation required a tweak--as when Jamie lost it. He is not like Rob C, always trying to hop sides and play both sides of the fence.

I will start that Rafe thread, later today when I have time to pull the materials together.

ed to change a Steph to a Rafe

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11-20-05, 03:24 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 03:32 PM (EST)

>OFG,
> I think that Jamie said
>on SL(and that was at
>3 AM-I kept going back
>and rewatching-then updating my above
>post) that Cindy was the
>other person. He definitely said
>"JUDD HAD CINDY AND I
>HAD LYDIA" when mentioning his
>plans to get rid of
>Steph.

This is odd because he said Rafe had Cindy in his "next day" thoughts on Insider. Don't know what to make of it, except INSIDER tells us what Jamie thought immediately after being booted, whereas on SurivorLive he knows how the game played out. Maybe he found out later that Judd had something going on with Cindy and that IF he had gotten so far as pulling together the rebellion it would have worked with Cindy and Lydia.

His Insider quotes from inside and outside the game show that Jamie didn't have a clue what Cindy was thinking, didn't get her, had never really talked to her, and that he was planning on going to Gary and Danni with Judd and Lydia to get his five votes. He never said maybe Judd could talk to Cindy.

What Jamie planned doesn't matter in the game from here on out, so yeah, it is interesting to note that Cindy may be close to Judd in Jamie's hindsight. That could be Cindy's demise.

I want to know
>what you think about my
>suggestion that Judd is furious
>with Lydia rather than Steph-his
>closeness to Jamie makes me
>think SHE would be his
>target instead.

It's possible that he's pissed at Lydia, sure. My thinking is along the lines of where has the communication line been open. Judd tells Steph important things and would think he has the right to quid pro quo. Unless Lydia has been pulling some Mata Hari stuff that we haven't seen and reporting to the rebels--it appears that she talked to Jamie and not Judd. I'm taking Judd's reaction as being all about Judd (not Jamie) and his sudden nervousness that he's out of the loop, so I would expect he is pissed at Steph, the head of the alliance, for making him feel out of it.

However, he definitely might despise Lydia for being spineless.

Also-Stephs comment in
>the previews about Lydia not
>getting to eat-boo hoo-what does
>that mean? Why would she
>say that? It could be
>Lydia being upset about the
>RC.

I haven't seen this comment in a promo yet so it's hard for me to judge. What are her exact words?

ETA, found them at Fever. This promos is trying to pull in the Thanksgiving theme of have-nots on Survivor, so it has an agenda and this is all pulled out of some context we don't get to see.

Lydia: There's water, salt, and the leftovers.
Steph (conf?): She's starving out her, boohoo for Lydia.

Yes, from what you say it sounds like the RC, sounds like Lydia is whining. But is Lydia livid? I dunno; she seems more passive-aggressive with her constant humility; being livid over being targeted seems unlike the Lydia we have known. But hey, people can always change their behavior. I don't feel like I have enough information to say yay or nay to that one. Good thinking out of the box though, MB.

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11-20-05, 03:39 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 03:43 PM (EST)

I can't copy and paste the text lines out of Fever's VO because it's a jpeg, so here's the full thing. Sounds to me like Judd and Steph are going at each other.

IIRC the last Steph line about loyalties is a confessional, and my assumption was that by "THIS" she is referring to him knocking her out of the RC.

Here's the VO about Lydia:

Seeing the context, I think this is before RC because Rafe Steph and Lydia are all trying to scrounge up something to eat. This seems like an average camp scene included explicity to make the point about not feasting (on TG). Then there will be an RC where one or two will feast.


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mockingbird 61 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-05, 07:15 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-05 AT 02:33 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 08:03†PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 08:02†PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-20-05 AT 07:57†PM (EST)

OFG,
My God but you're prompt! Why do I sense a touch of Virgo?


We are definitely on the same page in regards to Rafe. Collaborative-he is not a lapdog-and you're right-in Jamies and Bj's and even Brandon's eyes the more masculine Steph and slightly feminine Rafe duo could appear, to them, to mean he is a follower.I think they are equal decision makers and the combo works well. I do not, however, think that Rafe was involved in luring Judd over to their side. He may have stayed on the sidelines-and I still think Steph can control Judd to some extent.


Weeks ago-many people thought that Judd intimidated Rafe at a certain TC-I never thought that someone like Rafe could be intimidated by someone with less intellect. I do, however, think that he is sensitive-and the challenge where he was almost in tears-Steph saying "it'll be Ok.." showed great insight into Rafe's complex mind.(the choice to eat challenge).


As for Judd-I think Steph works him the way some posters feel Rafe is working Steph. When Judd said he "couldn't keep a secret" I attributed it to the fact that he's a Twin. There are twins in my family-two sets-and they are so very used to intimate talks with each other on a daily basis-3 times a day-even if oceans apart-that when seperated and with new people-they open up very quickly-want to have that close person-almost like a security blanket. I believe that his brothers death(don't know if it's the twin)affected him immeasurably-and I think it was very hard for Jamie to be without his brother as well.

Incidentally, I really enjoy Jamie in post show interviews speaking of his love for his mother. Really endears me to him(horrible gameplay not withstanding). He and Jamie could never hide from themselves-and I think Steph knew that. Without Judd-her chances, in my opinion, are slim of ever winning this game-though I'd like to see more from Danni than B'day parties, dogs, butt comparisons, and praying before challenges if she's final two. Please-Editors-are you listening?


This season is top-notch in my opinion-but I'm dreading the ending. I've always said that I don't care who wins-as long as there is good strategy-and I've only been dissapointed with a win once-and that was Ethan. Danni seems wonderful, smart, clever, pretty etc.-she must have game-and this show is wrapping up. At least Amber, Vee, Ethan, were shown strategizing-and talking about it in confessionals-I find it very odd that the editors have shown zero from her. I also am not so sure Steph makes it to F2 as predicted-I'm hoping for Rafe/Steph or Judd/Steph or rafe/Judd---ahh but now I'm clouding-which is what I criticize others for doing.
Anyway-yes OFG-start the Rafe thread.
M


EDITED TO ADD: upon rereading what I just wrote above-it occurred to me that the whole thing reads like a bad soap opera..

Dead twins,secrets,lies,ambition, betrayal,scheming, loyalty, anger, beauty, homosexuality, emotional blackmail, love, threats, innocence,hunger, starvation, revenge,juries, trials, votes, leadership, dominance,subserviance, games, sports, mindraping,calculating, manipulating,plotting, deviousness, family,power, honesty, and birthday parties in the pool.
Oh, and for the commercial break, how about a cup of Folgers Coffee?

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-05, 01:41 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
Yes please, OFG!

I leaped with great gusto onto the Rafe bandwagon this week, having been tooling around looking for someone to support after Brandon got the boot. I'd love to discuss Rafe in more detail and will be very interested to see what facts you have collected.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-05, 05:06 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection, Ep 11"
Sorry I didn't get that posted today, too much was going on. Please don't think it's anything spoilerish, just various things posted about and by Rafe in the past that round out the picture on him--at least I feel they do.

Again, sorry, I seem to be feeling too wiped out to write anything coherent tonight.

mockingbird: no Virgo, I'm not that steady or reliable ... if I'm quick (at times), maybe it's that quicksilver that goes with Gemini rising

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