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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"A guy is going next"
esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-28-05, 09:41 AM (EST)
 
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"A guy is going next" |
In the original version of Survivor, Gretchen was the first person voted out after the merge. Since then, in each of the 9 versions of the show, the first person voted out after the merge was a guy (Jeff, Clarence, Rob, Ken, Roger, Andrew, Lex, Rory and Coby). That tells me that Stephane, Dani, Lydia and Cindy are probably safe next week. It also tells me that either Gary, BJ, Brandon, Judd, Rafe or Jamie is going next week
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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-28-05, 11:30 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: A guy is going next" |
A lot of men and a lot of narrators. Who is our male narrator this year. Brandon.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-05, 12:23 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: A guy is going next" |
Note..Coby was at 9...it was BJ that left at 10 bc they merged late last time..Rosie, Coby was the first 1/2 half narrator in Palau...and I now see Brandon as our 1/2 half narrator in Guat. But before he goes, the lone Yaxha left on Yaxha premerge--Gary goes first...He doesn't have the protection of Danni and BJ like Brandon does and I don't see him being able to align back with Jamie, Steph, Lydia and Rafe....so as a threat he is an easy boot imo. for everyone. I think Gary is gone in Ep. 8 and then Brandon, Jamie, BJ, and Judd.... the editing of Ep. 6-7 and previews for Ep. 8 tell us that the men have a whole slew of issues that will be dealt with post merge...which benefits Danni the most, imho. She will be able to ingratiate herself to Steph, Rafe Lydia and Cindy and then she becomes a favorite to win immunities after F6.
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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-28-05, 01:55 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: A guy is going next" |
Emydi you maybe right, and I maybe crazy.At first blush I thought Brandon's D confessionals were off the chart last night. But according to Corvis he only received one. How did that happen? I have difficulty seeing Steph boot Gary or BJ over Brandon. She has a relationship with the first two and none with the third. Interesting editing patterns, I can't wait to see what VS has to say about the pool party. Did we just see Steph aligning herself with Danni, while Jamie and Cindy are on the outside looking in? Does Danni replace Cindy? Who replaces Jamie, Gary perhaps? Confused, as usual, but plenty of stuff to talk about.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-28-05, 02:17 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: A guy is going next" |
"At first blush I thought Brandon's D confessionals were off the chart last night. But according to Corvis he only received one. How did that happen?"Yeah, kind of funny how that worked out. Brandon talked about sores and how he forgets about it once he gets to the challenge. He commented about the zipline. Then he commented about the chocolate. His only D was the final one of the night. He had really the key confessional of the episode when he said, "It's like selling your soul or something." 3T/1D I think he's safe next episode.
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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-28-05, 03:00 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: A guy is going next" |
BR you are right, but the Devil you know is better than the Devil you don't. Steph will be the end of BJ, I am just having some fun on the when.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-05, 05:23 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: A guy is going next" |
At face value, what you say makes sense, BR. But, wouldn't it also make sense for Steph to hide any loyalty she might have to BJ, hoping they can partner up at the merge? The two of them knew they would be targets for having played before, so it would seem smart to me that they would have a pre-game alliance, and work very hard to keep it hidden. All the while, using each other to deflect the target elsewhere. Then again, maybe I give them too much credit.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-05, 12:37 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: A guy is going next" |
We have nuNakum outnumbering nuYaxha 6-4.
The original tribes are even, 5-5.
Men outnumber women 6-4.So, let's look at the subgroups: nuNakum women (Steph, Lydia, Cindy)
Safe, safe, safe. Sure, the women are outnumbered, but the testosterone group is going to be overly concerned with picking each other off. They won't go after these women because they'll have bigger targets in their sights. nuNakum men (Rafe, Judd, Jaime)
This would look like the safest group of all. They're new tribe outnumbers the old, and they have the gender advantage. But there is vulnerability here since nuNakum has a two-person advantage - one could go without nuNakum losing their majority...if it suited them. Would it suit them? Could be the perfect opportunity to jettison traitor Judd. He's already shown he'll abandon an alliance in a heartbeat if it suits him, and there have been hints that Rafe is intimidated by him. Jaime wouldn't want to get rid of him, since he sees him as a perfect final 2 opponent, but how far would he be willing to stick his own neck out to save Judd? nuYaxha woman (Danni)
Safe now for the same reason as the nuNakum women - there are much bigger targets available. After Tom's immunity run last season, these folks will go after perceived II threats first so that one player's run doesn't ruin the pecking order of the dominant alliance. nuYaxha men (BJ, Brandon, Gary)
Be afraid, boys...be very afraid. This is by far the most vulnerable group. All are perceived II threats. TDT is already showing Gary as the boot for next episode, and it would make sense. After all, Gary doesn't have a strong tie with any of the remaining players. The other three nuYaxha have been tribemates from the beginning, while all of Gary's original tribemates are either gone or were switched to the other tribe. And the nuNakum bunch had to get a message when they saw Brian gone that, barring a tiebreaker, someone from their original tribe had to sell Brian out. So none of them will have a reason to fight to keep Gary around. Seems like a pretty easy call, really. 
Handcrafted by RollDdice
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-28-05, 02:25 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: A guy is going next" |
Great idea to separate the merged survivors into subgroups, beebs! I agree that this is a good way to break it down, however I don't know if I agree with all of the rationale...Sure, the group is now comprised of 6 nuNakum and 4 nuYaxha. But, it's also made up of 5 old Nakum's and 5 old Yaxha's. I do think there is still some feeling for old tribemates, whether we are shown it or not.....for example, Gary. We know that Rafe assigned Gary immunity, although we have really no idea of how he came to choose him, despite what Brian said in his post show interviews. We also know that Lydia swore her early loyalty to Gary. We know that Steph and Rafe hold Gary in a somewhat high regard. We also know that BJ, Brandon, and Danni feel they have an alliance with him... so, personally, despite what all the spoilers are saying, I don't see Gary in that much danger.... I think that the Judd/Jamie group would pick a far more threatening alphamale, challenge whore to pick off before a middle aged guy that doesn't appear to be a serious contender in challenges. Just my 2 cents worth here. If I was a woman on this tribe, I'd try and align with the other women who are also in a serious minority. I'd bring in Rafe as well as I consider him the anti-alpha male, and I do believe he is troubled by all the wild, tough guy antics that occur at each challenge... Jamie was not particularly liked by the old Yaxha's, imo. Yes, he's bonded with Judd, but now we see a glimpse of a tiff between him and his bosum buddy, Judd. Steph foreshadows last night that at some point she'll be coming head to head with him. I don't really think that Rafe or Cindy are particularly keen on him, and he's definately likely to be a challenge threat. The only one that may feel any loyalty to Jamie, imo, is Lydia... I agree this is going to be a very interesting week... 
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-05, 03:41 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: A guy is going next" |
FPI agree with Beebs that Gary is the most vulnerable....and I think we will be a "compromise" boot bc once the teams merge they will not have much time to really flesh out their new "strategies" post merge. So Gary, seen too much like a Tom (by Steph and her crew) will be an easy boot to handle at F10 before the big boys JJ and BB go next. Gary doesn't have the protection that BJ and Brandon do and he is the lone Yaxha on NuYaxha...Rafe's look of concern after seeing Brian as the boot leads me to believe too that Gary may be seen as a trader. Gary wasn't going to win this thing anyway, the editing tells us that, and his boot will end the mini pagonging of OldYaxha that became NuYaxha...albeit by Shakem...yeah I'm not spelling that new tribe's name. 
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-29-05, 06:42 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: A guy is going next" |
I dunno, Beebs. Clearly Judd flipped on his old tribe, but what about Cindy? If Cindy were to realign with D/BJ/B and they keep Gary, then it's 5/5. It may be a stretch, but who knows? Why would S/R/L/Jamie want to target Gary, a past and possibly future ally, over one of the OldNakum who they have ZERO loyalty to? I'd think they'd want to get rid of at least one of BJ/B/D first, so they maintain sure control. If they pick off Gary first, then is OldNakum would outnumber OldY 5/4, no? Seems like quite a gamble to me, even IF Judd stays loyal. (who'd trust THAT guy after the way he flipped before?) Like Flowerpower said, they had pretty strong ties to Gary pre- switch, and since he's now basically a loner, why wouldn't they try to use him to their advantage to get rid of BJ or Brandon? Surely Jamie will be gunning for Bobby Jon, so unless he wins immunity, I'd think he'd be gone.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-30-05, 01:54 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: A guy is going next" |
When he realized Brian was voted out, we saw the surprise on Rafe's face. I think he figured Brian asked him to give Gary immunity to remove any fear Gary had of a tie vote. The betrayal was that much more evident.
I figure NuNakum stays together for now and they will target the other team's stronger player. Steph knows BJ isn't a leader, Judd had ties only with Brandon and may want to save him. Danni isn't a threat yet. Who is left: Gary. He wanted to stay neutral during the pool party and that will come to bite him. We didn't see Gary mingle during the party. No one on Nakum will stand up for him now.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-30-05, 03:01 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: A guy is going next" |
>When he realized Brian was voted
>out, we saw the surprise
>on Rafe's face. I think
>he figured Brian asked him
>to give Gary immunity to
>remove any fear Gary had
>of a tie vote. The
>betrayal was that much more
>evident.I think that's a huge stretch. At that point, how would Rafe know that it wasn't a purple rock tie that got Brian? Brian and Amy are gone, Gary could tell them any number of excuses as to why Brian went home.
> I figure NuNakum stays together
>for now and they will
>target the other team's stronger
>player. The other team's strong player certainly isn't Gary. He hasn't done squat in challenges. Steph knows BJ isn't
>a leader, Well, it wouldn't surpise me to find that Steph and BJ have a prior arrangement to protect each other, but I'd assume Jamie would have something to say about getting rid of BJ. Judd had ties
>only with Brandon and may
>want to save him. Well, hopefully, Steph, Rafe, Lydia and Jamie aren't dumb enought to let Judd call the shots. As loud as he is, I don't think he has that much power in the alliance. Danni
>isn't a threat yet. Agreed.
Who
>is left: Gary.
From what we actually know, I just don't see booting Gary as a smart move at all. Heck, if they're voting on betrayl, I'd say Judd would be the biggest target. BJ/Brandon/Danni should be plenty upset with Judd, and I don't think they'd have a hard time getting Gary on board. And, wouldn't now be a good time for Cindy to "step up and play the game" and join her old tribe in cutting the traitor, Judd? He wanted
>to stay neutral during the
>pool party and that will
>come to bite him. We
>didn't see Gary mingle during
>the party. Most of the foucs was on Jamie, so I didn't even notice Gary's actions or inactions at the party. I don't think that's a huge factor as far as Gary is concerned.
No one on
>Nakum will stand up for
>him now. Well then, they're idiots. If they vote along NuTribal lines, the only way Gary goes is if Judd is calling the shots, and he wants to protect BJ/Brandon for some unknown reason. BJ/Brandon are much bigger challenge threats, and one of them should go, depending on who wins II.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-30-05, 03:12 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: A guy is going next" |
True you have good arguments..but I am with beebs and michel here....gary goes at F10... editing supports it. I think BJ finds the tree idol...see vidcap thread and he fulfills his lifelong dream of making the jury on survivor...Brandon has more longevity, editing wise..Judd and Jamie do have the numbers and I think for now NuNakum will stick "to the plan" like they told Jamie after the party. Cindy didn't want to go to Yaxha for the party, she was never in with the BBD alliance, and she will stick with SLRJJ now. If it isn't Gary, it's Brandon, but I doubt it. Gary is more of a leader ala tom which Steph knows can be very dangerous. She tried to get Tom out at F7 in Palau but couldn't, she'll get Gary out here...I think in an unanimous vote with Gary voting for Jamie or Judd.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-31-05, 02:15 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: A guy is going next" |
Judd may be the "misdirection" option presented to us this episode.I'm picturing an episode where we see more of the Steph-Jaime power struggle within nuNakum. Steph could think that the right move would be to remove Judd now. After all, they don't need him anymore, since they would still have a 5-4 advantage over nuYaxha. That also brings around a 5-4 advantage or original Yaxha vs. original Nakum. And it gets rid of one of the strong male II threats. Meanwhile Jaime is going to want to keep Judd around since he's looking at him as a great F2 opponent, so he could be using Brian and Amy's boots as a way to cast doubt on Gary's loyalty. He might also decide to target Gary so that he can make sure he keeps his spot in the tribal pecking order. After all, if nuNakum pulls Gary back into their fold, Jaime may not be part of the key alliance anymore and would then be vulnerable. Right now, TDT has Jaime going before Brandon or Judd. If he's really the second jury member, then it's time for his storyline to crank up. We've been seeing how he'd like to strategize, but we'll need to start seeing reasons why he loses his standing in his core alliance. Is it simply his rivalry with Steph, or is there something specific that brings about his downfall?
Handcrafted by RollDdice
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-30-05, 05:47 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: A guy is going next" |
The fact is, is NuNakum sticks together then someone in the NuYaxha is toast. Danni is probably the most benign, as she's a girl and not in alpha male contention. That leaves one of BJ, Brandon, or Gary. The thing with Gary is that he does have previous relationships at NuNakum, namely Lydia for one. She promised him her loyalty early in the game. Now I don't know Lydia, but I took that commitment as solid from her. She also has Jamie's ear, and Jamie as well knows Gary. He knows that Gary is not a physical threat to himself. Steph/Rafe also had a good relationship with Gary and I just think that they would target one of BJ/Brandon more.Also, regarding Gary and the editing. He is a semi-celebrity. CBS has been really drumming him up since all of the pre-show hype. We have all thought that he would have been off much sooner than this. Because of all of the CBS promotion, his editing is definately not following as per the usual. Therefore, it is really hard, imo, to peg him solely on the editing. For example, he had so many early confessionals and thus lots of early D's and T's. But I really think that was CBS trying to hook the football fan viewer. He really is appearing under the radar in the vidcaps this week as well. This gives me great pause in considering him as the boot for this week. Despite the spoilers and their sources, and the editing...just my 2 cents...
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-31-05, 10:22 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: A guy is going next" |
I don't know that I agree with that, Flowerpower. Gary hasn't had a lot of extra early confessionals. In episode 2, he got a slightly big bump of confessionals (Ts and Ds) and that's it. In fact, he's had less confessionals than four of the remaining players, with Bobby Jon, Stephenie, Brandon and Judd getting more. Gary has consistently received Ds, at least one in every single episode. And he's smack in the middle of the confessional count, which oftentimes points to a mid-game boot. (The ones who make it far have a lot (Steph, Rafe?) or very few confessionals (Lydia?) at this point.) I don't think his celebrity has had much effect on his number of confessionals - they seem pretty normal to me. He's due to get booted soon. In the next one or two episodes, I think.Gary - 1T/1D, 3T/4D, 2D, 1D, 1T/1D, 1D, 2D = 5T/12D JMO. 
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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-31-05, 02:27 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: A guy is going next" |
I can’t say I have reached any great conclusions about what will happen this week, but I though I would toss out some more fuel to the fire.I think everyone has identified BJ, Gary, and Brandon as the top three boot choices for this week. There are pros and cons for each. BJ: His “I have a dream speech”, his double take of Brandon’s TC comment, and that he has been a target over the last couple of weeks, must make BJ the obvious boot choice this week. For those reasons he is probably safe. I don’t think he has to win immunity to stay, but in context to his story, an immunity win would be appropriate. If making the jury is his dream, it will be granted, but it would be surprising if he didn’t go next week. Gary: Steph keeping Gary around has both its pros and cons from a strategic perspective. It would increase her alliance numbers and both BJ and Brandon are much stronger challenge threats. But at the same time he must be considered a threat to take over her sheep; Rafe and Lydia, and even Jamie, and could easily be targeted as a potential threat. Of course we rarely see any strategy that makes sense on Survivor, and while should Gary go or stay it will probably be for one of the reasons above, in predicting whether Gary will go or stay it probably doesn’t matter. The biggest argument against Gary going is that Steph and Gary have an established relationship. For Steph to turn on Gary I would have expected at least a bit of conflict when they were tribe members. Gary has also, seemingly, relinquished his leadership role to Danni (Brandon) on Yaxha. As a leader I don’t think he is as big of a target as before. On Survivor Live Amy said it was Gary’s, not Danni’s, idea for the pool party. If this had been included with what we saw of Steph and Gary greeting each other warmly we definitely would think that Gary and Steph were are very good terms, and it would be unlikely that Gary would go this week. MB could have also ignored this edit because he needs the option of a Gary boot, although he isn’t really a candidate. However, the edit could also be protecting Steph. If we had received a full edit, and Gary is voted off, Steph would be to blame. By not showing this edit, Steph escapes being the “bad girl”, and Gary’s boot can be attributed to someone else (Judd). This also supplies the added bonus of increasing Danni’s edit. We have also saw the continued weakening of Nakum last week, via Jamie and Cindy. Could Gary and Danni replace Jamie and Cindy? Is this misdirection? I tend to think that the tribe fracture is more of a long-term story. But who knows? How obvious is this? Brandon: Should BJ win immunity, or not, Brandon is an obvious strategic target of Nu-Nakum. But for the very reasons why it doesn’t matter for Gary, apply to Brandon as well. I was surprised (see above) at Corvis’s confessional analysis. I really thought this was a very D episode for Brandon, but Corvis is correct in his confessional analysis. The Ds just are not there. Although, with BJ and Steph in the mix, the confessionals have been a bit odd this year and we have seen a bit more reliance of face time and the actual interaction of players. Brandon has received a very good edit, but more important, if any story we have received from Brandon is his “lack of game play” I am still torn between these two. Brandon has received more of an edit than Gary, and a better confessional analysis, Gary’s game play edit has been stronger. Like I said, no conclusions, just food for thought.
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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-31-05, 03:10 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: A guy is going next" |
I think the Gary/Steph interaction will be interesting this next episode. While he may try to re-establish something, I just have a feeling that Steph will remember all to well what Tom and Katie and Ian did to her last season, and wont put her faith in old bonds that time and new bonds have weakened. I think she will view him with a very wary eye.
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PhillyBrat 172 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-01-05, 07:14 AM (EST)
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29. "Bobby Jon VRS Jamie" |
So yea I was looking over the web promo once again. And Bobby Jon talking about Jamie. And earlier in the preview we had the Judd Vrs Jamie spat over whatever.I would think that Jamie and Bobby Jon thing explodes. And well If Bobby Jon gets immunity and uses it, the focus will go on one of His allys. Thus why Brandon will be targeted to go... then again if Gary spends a lot of time sticking up fro BJ he could go in this case as well.... Thoughts? Bratz
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-05, 11:21 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Bobby Jon VRS Jamie" |
I think the six Nunakums will easily hang together for this vote, despite whatever tensions are surfacing in their alliance. It's a no-brainer for them to pick off a couple of Nuyaxha's alpha males before they start turning on themselves. Bobby Jon will probably be the first target.If the IC is one of those stand-on-a-stump-till-you-drop things, BJ could easily win it. (And I do think that's what it will be; it would explain why some people just decline to participate.) Ironically, I think Gary would try to win such a challenge as well, after laying low for most of the tribal challenges. If he is the next-to-last Yaxha to jump, and Bobby Jon wins, that could shift the target to Gary. Brandon I'm not sure about, but I don't really see him sticking such a challenge out for too long. And it might work to deflect attention from oneself by *not* trying too hard to win. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-05, 11:49 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Bobby Jon VRS Jamie" |
BR--what do you make of Corvis' II necklace on Steph on walk to TC?? Before Corvis posted that, I thought BJ would be the II winner...but it really does look like they "erased" the II necklace on Steph. Steph lasted a long time in Palau and she will do the same here. And because the Ep 9 title is presumably about the use of the hidden idol...and not used in Ep. 8, then BJ is somehow spared this vote and he makes the jury..his dream. That's one of the reasons I am so gung ho on Gary going...it's an easy first post merge boot and he doesn't have the support that BJ (or Brandon has). I know some think he has the support of Rafe and Lydia...but they are not dumb enough to switch so soon from the NuNakum plan. Gary, ironically, will have no one to help him as he did not help Brian and Amy all that much...
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-05, 12:21 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Bobby Jon VRS Jamie" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-05 AT 04:34 PM (EST)I can't tell one way or the other about Stephenie and the IN. But, here is a scenario that might fit: If BJ is going to be Nunakum's target, someone will have to try to outlast him on the stumps. Who better to do that than Stephenie? But if she does outlast him, why wouldn't he get voted out? Well, maybe after umpteen hours BJ and Stephenie make a deal: he will let Stephenie have the immunity if she will guarantee that he will not be voted off this time. After all, he taught her how to build a fire in Palau, and then she won the challenge that got him eliminated. This time he'd like to make the jury and she'll have his vote in the F2 if he does. She considers and agrees to give him a pass, and convinces her alliance to vote for someone else this time. I don't know if I see this happening, but it's a thought. It might work. ETA: well, on second thought, even if Steph and BJ did strike a deal as above, the easier thing for Steph to do would be to let BJ take the immunity so then they'd *have* to vote someone else out, rather than take it for herself and then try to convince her minions of a different plan. So, no, that isn't really a good scenario to give Stephenie immunity.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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montanagirl 69 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-01-05, 02:55 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Which boy goes home this week?" |
I basically skimmed through this whole thread, so forgive me if I am repeating anything!I have to agree that Brandon, BJ, and Gary are going to be the three to focus on as the last pre-jury boot. Here is why I think it will be Gary: Gary was tight with Amy, Steph, and Rafe from oldYax. That was the main alliance over there. Lydia made some promises to Gary as well. On nuYax, Gary kept his pre-existing alliance with Amy (or anyone else, for that matter) hidden from the oldNuks, formed a new alliance with Danni, and got very close with the whole nuYax tribe in general. Unfortunately for Gary, Danni was in charge of that alliance...and shrewdly so, I believe. Gary is being strung along, all the while feeling comfortable is his place at nuYax. Tribes merge. NuNuks are tight. At least they appear to be so on the surface. Steph has her power alliance of Rafe, Lydia, Jamie, Judd. I think Cindy has also bonded with these guys and considers herself part of their group, although we haven't seen much besides the voting results to show this. Steph doesn't need Gary in her alliance any more. That is the most important thing to consider. SHE DOESN'T NEED HIM. Combine that with memories of Tom in Palau (their day 1 alliance didn't really hold up after the merge AND Gary rings a lot like Tom - older, father figure, leader, all around nice guy - I don't think Steph would be willing to take ANY chances that she could get TOMed again), the possibility of Gary trying to play both alliances (when in reality, I don't think he has any REAL alliance left) after the merge, the fact that he is a big strong immunity threat, AND he takes up a lot of room in the shelter (LOL). Why not BJ? I truly think that Steph and BJ made a pre-game agreement that if either of them were in the position to help the other one make the jury that they would do it. I think this is partially why we have seen Steph acting like such a cretin towards him so far - to deflect any suspicion of a pre-game alliance between them. ESPECIALLY special for BJ, since he just missed jury last time. So - whether or not BJ wins immunity this week, I think Steph will deflect the vote away from him for at least one more week. And there is that tidbit running around out there that says BJ did better than he did in Palau. Well, he did make the merge this time...that qualifies as better, right?...but maybe not...He left at F10 in Palau, so I would say he lasts until at LEAST F9 here in Guatemala. Why not Brandon? Good question. Let's see...he's fairly under the radar, he's way too nice, and he follows BJ around like a lost puppy. Poor Brandon. I can't really come up with a good reason why he should stay OR go, other than he has at least BJ and Danni pulling for him to stay. I don't think he really registers on the nuNuk radar. Perhaps he wins immunity this week. Gary has many reasons to be booted...
BJ has a secret "we'll get each other to the jury, at least" alliance with Steph
Brandon is invisible to nuNuks...no real good, obvious reason to keep OR boot -montanagirl
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 12:43 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Which boy goes home this week?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-05 AT 12:48 PM (EST)I'm not sure what "alliance" or agreement Steph/BJ might have had or what will transpire in EP 8. I think Steph will want to be seen as staying away from BJ but I do still think BJ makes the jury, how he will do it, I'm not sure..whether by winning II, using hidden idol..although I think that happens in Ep. 9 or bc he has protection of Brandon/Danni... But I agree with your Gary analysis montanagirl, nice synopsis. And BR, I couldn't tell you in vote thread bc no replies are allowed there..but your analysis of Blake's comments post boot are great...just adds to the reasons for Gary going. As usual, your deductions, etc. are quite good and much appreciated! GOT-to love the Drake ROACH!
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 02:31 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Which boy goes home this week?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-05 AT 02:33 PM (EST)Thanks, emy. I don't know that BJ and Steph would have had time to make a pre-game plan, but I've been having second thoughts about Stephenie wanting to target Bobby Jon immediately now. Bobby Jon was somewhat able to influence Stephenie's voting choices on Palau. Or, at least, when there was initial disagreement, as in the tie votes, she deferred to his boot choice. Plus, he saved her neck by keeping her instead of Ibrehem, for which she thanked him. Now that they are finally on the same tribe, I'd be surprised if they completely ignored each other. It makes sense for them to renew their acquaintanceship to some degree. They should at the very least have a pow-wow about their potential post-merge risk as returning players. They may even consider if its beneficial for them to stick together, at least for a while. Bobby Jon knows he's in a minority, and Stephenie's been having problems with Jamie (who is also BJ's nemesis) and knows Jamie wanted to vote her out earlier. I expect that Bobby Jon will win the immunity this week, but I'm not sure he's going to need it as much I initially thought he would. I'm starting to think your scenario of BJ leaving next week because Jamie has the hidden immunity (I think this was in a different thread) is highly possible.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 03:38 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Uh-oh" |
not knowing xbalanque, I have no idea what to do w/ this info. does this poster have a "proven track record" and did TDT use this post to put Brandon back in contention? TDT does tend to "follow"....By the way, I did not say that I think Jamie finds the II, I still think either Brandon or BJ do... and it's used next week. But maybe you have something and Jamie uses it NEXT week to the detriment of BJ or Brandon. Hmmmmm..... Last nite when watching TAR, the Survivor promo showed BJ followed by Brandon running down a hill and one of them says "WE got to find that idol" So if they are a WE and find it in Ep. 8 why wouldn't Brandon use it to deflect the vote off of him? So it could be: 1) BB do not find it and Brandon is toast this week as X has posted, 2) BJ finds it and uses it tomorrow to the detriment of Brandon (which I find unlikely bc ep. 9's title seems to say it's used then) If this would occur, it would have to be a revote, bc I don't see a split vote btw Brandon and BJ it will be BJ/Brandon v. Judd/Jamie/Gary...so if BJ gets voted and says no, sorry jiffy, then he sets it up for a 2nd vote and the BJ voters just replace Brandon for BJ...boy wouldn't that suck for Brandon..he'd be booted under "unfair" circumstances like BJ and it would be bc of BJ...irony....hmmmmm 3) Brandon and BJ are not at risk at all in Ep 8 and Gary goes--so it doesn't matter who finds the idol during Ep 8, it will be a factor in Ep 9 4) Brandon and BJ find the idol but do not need it til next week...but does one use it to detriment of other...I think F9 is either Brandon or BJ...
I'm still sticking with Gary...for now
I actually have Brandon as my F9 boot in my PTTE and was pretty sure of that until the BJ I have a dream speech which smacks me with a F9 boot for BJ. What's bothering me is...do we even know if anyone finds it this week? it's not like it has been written in stone...and I don't think there would be a time limit on trying to find it...from the preview...it looks pretty big and in somewhat plain site..so I think someone does find it tomorrow but doesn't need to use it until next week (per Ep 9 title) What is also bothering me is why the idol will be needed in Ep 9...if it's BJ/Br that find it why in the heck would Brandon be gone in EP. 8 he should use it....and if BJ/BR do not find it and Jamie/Judd do then why would J/J be in danger in Ep. 9??? BR answer me!! PLEASE!!! I have a headache now 
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 04:07 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Uh-oh" |
Yeah, I was wondering about that, who is X? I hadn't decided yet this week, Brandon is certainly one I'm considering, but I don't know why I should factor in this X poster in any way.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 04:26 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Uh-oh" |
Thanks! I found the post where X picked Blake, X doesn't seem to be absolutely certain of these picks, dunno what to make of it really.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 04:21 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Uh-oh" |
Do I have to answer all the questions? Or can I choose random ones? By the way, I did not say that I think Jamie finds the II No, but I was referring to this post, where you said, hypothetically:
“Say Jamie finds it, he finds out/or has a feeling he is being targeted by the whole tribe and all the votes go to him...and he votes for his nemesis BJ and the votes are 8-1 or whatever. Then Jamie pulls out the hidden idol and says PSYCH...you lose BJ...and poor BJ is ousted again unfairly.... “ Anyway, if Brandon is the boot that means my meanderings about Steph and Bobby Jon can be tossed out the window. xbalanque is the one who said BJ is the first juror. He/she also said Blake would be out by Ep 4, though that was off by one episode. As for the hidden II, I don't think we will *see* anyone find it tomorrow, but that doesn't mean someone hasn't found it by then. I don't think we'll know who has it until next week, maybe, judging from the episode title. But even that is a headscratcher: if Bobby Jon and Brandon are the first two targets, and Brandon is gone this week, it doesn't explain someone using the hidden immunity next week if BJ is targeted to get the boot, and then does. A Brandon boot tomorrow is more logical than a Gary boot on the simplest level (even though I thought from his editing that Brandon was due to stick around a couple of more Eps, especially combined with Blake's remark). Can't say it doesn't make sense for Nunakum to boot a challenge hog, especially one that none of them has any connection to.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 04:48 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Uh-oh" |
Oh, I did say that about Jamie...I'm really thinking Jamie does find it now..But even that is a headscratcher: if Bobby Jon and Brandon are the first two targets, and Brandon is gone this week, it doesn't explain someone using the hidden immunity next week if BJ is targeted to get the boot, and then does.
Right, if Jamie/Judd find it this week and we don't know...maybe something else happens with Jamie that alienates Steph/Rafe/Lydia/Cindy and they hook up with BJ, Danni, Brandon OR Gary (depending on who goes ep 8) to oust Jamie, NOT KNOWING HE HAS THE hidden idol. Jamie and Judd vote for BJ and its a 7-2 vote. Either BJ is gone with 2 votes (much to my and BJ's chagrin) or they revote and Rafe Lydia Cindy and Steph switch to BJ as their original target. Whaddya think....
So that's it, you/I? have convinced me that Jamie finds the hidden idol! A Brandon boot tomorrow is more logical than a Gary boot on the simplest level (even though I thought from his editing that Brandon was due to stick around a couple of more Eps, especially combined with Blake's remark). Can't say it doesn't make sense for Nunakum to boot a challenge hog, especially one that none of them has any connection to.
I agree...and OFG's post in the vote thread is very logical and persuasive. HOWEVER the editing is making me think Gary tho...Veruca Salt's and your posts are very compelling, along with Corvis conf. analysis...and I hate being a lemming... and I'm pretty stubborn myself, Corvis!! I need to sleep on it....
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montanagirl 69 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-05, 10:48 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Hidden Idol finder" |
I think everyone is starting to read too much into this hidden idol thing. To ME, the only thing that makes sense is if one of the power puff girls (Steph/Danni/Cindy) finds it. Most likely Danni. I really think that nuNuks are intending to totally pagong the nuYax after the merge. They will get a good start with Gary, BJ, & Brandon as the first three - and when they go for Danni fourth, she busts out her hidden idol...and Jamie goes home. The hunt starts in Ep.8, the idol gets found in Ep.9...but doesn't get used until they try to boot Danni.As simple as Steph seems, remember that she has power puff Rafe on her side as well...he's no dummy. He won't let her try to get rid of any nuNuks until their day is due and they are no longer needed . No matter how annoying or grating those people may be. The major contenders for the hidden idol are the nuYax...they need it more...Gary, I'm sure, would love to find it, but has given himself a false sense of security with supposed alliances on both sides of the coin. He may give a good effort, but not good enough. BJ and Brandon frantically searching...means to me that they don't quite pull it off...that leaves Danni. Miss shrewd herself. (I also think that Cindy and Steph give a good show at trying to find it, but with that power alliance they have, they give a subconciously subpar performance.)
-montanagirl
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-05, 11:25 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Hidden Idol finder" |
He won't let her try to get rid of any nuNuks until their day is due and they are no longer needed . No matter how annoying or grating those people may be.We've already heard Stephenie say she's had it with Jamie. And he's a big post-merge immunity threat. Judd is also an immunity threat, depending on the type of challenge, and has been (will continue to be?) annoying as well. Stephenie/Rafe/Lydia/Cindy might easily opt to get rid of both Jamie and Judd before all of nuYaxha is gone, as long as they still have a majority. As far as the Hidden Idol, what we are trying to figure out is if/how it might come into play in the next episode, because of "Idol Surprise" in the episode title. Does "Idol Surprise" mean someone finds it next week? Does it mean someone uses it next week? Does it mean the person who has it passes it to someone else at TC next week? Or does it mean something entirely unrelated to the Hidden Immunity? Hopefully the promos ans SeeBS Misdirection will provide some hints.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-05, 05:12 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Hidden Idol finder" |
montanagirl:
I agree that Steph/Rafe will play a smart numbers game. However, I think they'll play it similar to Koror (who dumped Gregg early by semi-enlisting Caryn).When they have the numbers, they will dump Jamie and Judd who are not only strong but have a tight bond. LOL, the Greggifer of S11 is the J-boy twins. As long as the whole alliance dumps them, it's not such a worry about alienating a juror because they'll hate everyone. I think Gary/Danni will remain a team and pitch themselves to Steph/Rafe/Lydia/Cindy. Cindy has to want to get rid of Judd and Jamie. They've been horrible to her. Lydia has an outstanding promise to Gary to stand behind him. That was shown us for a reason, wasn't it? How ironic that little Lydia who needed Gary's protection is now in a position to help Gary! So, once Brandon and BJ are gone, only 5 votes are needed to dump Jamie the challenge threat, and with Gary and Danni there are 2 plus 4. Then they ought to dump Judd just to get his energy out of the camp, but who knows whether Judd will save himself with an immunity. But still, proceeding with ditching the strong males, if not Judd then likely Gary. So then the F5 group contains three strong challenge competitors--ALL WOMEN, Cindy, Danni, and Steph, with Rafe's best asset his brain and cultural knowledge if they get a mental challenge. However, I think Danni could beat Rafe if a cultural challenge incorporates running to stations and collecting items. Lydia is actually quite the F3 endurance threat with her stoicism and low center of gravity. But they'll off her before she gets the chance to take that one. So much for the season where male brute strength is King. Use 'em and lose 'em ladies.  
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-05, 08:48 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: A guy is going next" |
Thanks for the kind words, emydi! one might also quote true's vote:
"they're stupid but they're not that stupid." 
And there you have the very thing that makes spoiling a challenge: how does one assess the stupidity factor of the Survivors going in to each episode? And you just know that at any moment there might be a giant surge on the Stupidity meter, but when and why? A blood sugar spike or maybe having to sleep in the wet spot in the shelter? So hard to predict. Re "a guy is going next: I think we could use this subject header for the next five weeks! I don't expect to see another woman booted until F5 or F6 at earliest. This season they bought into the "brute strength is an asset" idea very heavily. They booted women first no matter what alliances had been made, and now it is merge they will boot male strength -- mo matter what alliances have been made. That's my take. For this boot, I see in the previews how the young guys are snapping at each other, and I feel they will have a sort of tunnel vision just post-merge and women and weaker or older men (i.e. Gary) will be ignored in the short term. Every single season players manage to forget that if you ignore those weaker but generally smart players you end with them still around at F4. Players forget that women can win immunity even with strong men in the game (unless you're Alicia, then they don't forget). Players underestimate to the point that young women win S6, 7, and 8 and a woman would have won S9 had they not overlooked chubby Chris with the sore feet as a non-threat. They seem to forget that Tom Westman just won S10. Instead they worry about nipping the next Colby Donaldson in the bud. I do think BJ will win immunity this time, and what does that reinforce with the group? The idea that BJ and Brandon and Judd and Jamie are the big immunity threats. With any smarts at all, Gary will lay relatively low and any talks he has with his old allies Steph and Rafe will be very UTR so as not to get Judd's dander up. Meanwhile the screaming match challenge-taunting boys will only have eyes for each other. This is what makes sense to me from how things have been shaping up. The stupider the establishment is, the smarter the rebels become.
Establishment stupidity is the greatest spur to creativity in evolutionary history ~ Robert Anton Wilson
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