Whether we like it or not, it is now clear the alliance has been consistently doing the right thing to survive. The alliance might not be nice and even would have been a bit boring if it hadn't been for the producer's creative editing, but it has been successful. So there is no reason to believe all hell will suddenly break loose now that the Pagongers are gone. At least not for everybody. Obviously the alliance has to break for some castaway, but that doesn't mean that all strategy will break down next week. It is not just going to degrade into everyone voting willy-nilly. Strategy and alliances will continue.

Whereas Susan and Rudy have been opportunists in the alliance, Rich has been its real architect and the chief force keeping it focused on its goals. Now with just alliance members left, he is working people again and there seems to be a new understanding between Rich and Rudy, and Rich and Sean, which will create a new majority voting block next week. Rudy will go with Rich because he is a pragmatist and knows Rich has the best strategy and can be counted on to deliver the vote. Sean will go along because he doesn't like or trust Sue and Rich has reached out to him.

I think the person they will vote for will be Kelly if she doesn't win immunity. In Rich's end-strategy, he knows the only person he holds a reasonable chance of winning the jury vote against would be Susan. He can be pretty sure he would lose the vote with the predominately Pagong jury against Rudy or Kelly and it is hard to say how he would do opposite Sean. So his best chance in the final 2 is against Susan. For his purposes then, he will get the block to vote Kelly off and I don't think the other 2 will care who leaves now as long as it means surviving one more week, so Rich's choice will be the block choice.

The Immunity Challenges focus on different strengths and weaknesses each week so I think it is unlikely Kelly will win it again. If by chance she does, then I think Rich will abandon Sean and court Kelly and Sue against Sean, but I think Rich is already locked in with Rudy and Sean and will only court the other 2 if Kelly gets immunity. I think immunity is a long-shot though and the most likely person voted off will be Kelly.

BTW, I think Susan may go with the voting block against Kelly (despite her comments about not betraying Kelly) or at least won't try to create an alliance that takes out Rich, because he is the person she has the best chance against in the final 2 just like she is the best for him. Despite what she says to the camera about taking Rich out, if she is thinking clearly she will know going head-to-head against Rich in the final 2 is in her best interest and will try to keep him around even if it means voting Kelly out.