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"Episode 7 Boot Discussion"
echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-21-05, 10:50 AM (EST)
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"Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Last week was a relatively easy week with most people on board with the Margaret/Brian boots. Perhaps this week will be more difficult to predict. In the previews we see Amy confronting Gary about playing football. Has this issue really been swept under the rug, or is it something to think about again. We also Yaxha show up at Nakum's camp. An early merge? Do they get to "kidnap" somebody? Also, will there be any fallout from Judd's TC tantrum? Is that alliance still strong, or will we begin to see people distance themselves from Judd? Most important, who do you think is vulnerable this week and why? Discuss here!
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echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-21-05, 11:29 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-21-05 AT 11:33 AM (EST)Okay my very early thoughts! Yaxha Brian was voted out 5-1, so you can either conclude there wasn't much loyalty to old tribal lines from Gary and Amy, or they are merely in slef-preservation mode. We can also squash any thought of Brandon being an outsider. Obviously BJ was okay with his not voting Blake the previous week, and I suspect Danni is okay with it too. He may not be entirely happy with the direction they took, but is smart enough not to make waves. He's safe. We also saw Gary balk when Brian mentioned voting for BJ. Gary mentioned strength, but it's fairly obvious that Gary feels like he's "in" with his new group, and sees Bobby Jon in particular as one he can influence and manipulate. Amy. Her injury was once again misdirection as we saw her "gut it up" and lead her and Danni to victory the next round of the challenge. She is obviously well-liked, and I took particular interest in Brandon's lavish praise during TC. If tribes don't merge and Yaxha goes back to tribal council I think it comes down to Gary vs. Amy. That is why we were shown the discussion in previews. Amy has been given an underdog edit, an edit of someone who won't quit. Her edit has been overwhelmingly positive. We have also been shown Gary wiggling his way into the majority alliance with Danni and BJ. However will Brandon sit quietly on the sidelines or actively try to lobby for Amy over Gary? And will Danni once again have to cast the deciding vote? With the merge looming, who would be the most likely individual immunity threat? I think Gary's football story was brought up again for a reason. He's going to be a target this week. Will Amy be able to use that against Gary? Will the underdog survive? Right now I'm thinking yes she will. Gary 60% Amy 40% Nakum Everything revolves around Judd! Although Margaret was an obvious boot, the outburst from Judd may have lingering consequences. On one hand Judd is the perfect F2 foil. His arrogance probably won't play well in front of a jury, so those with an endgame in mind have to be thinking about that. With six players remaining you have three (Judd, Jamie and Steph) that are physically strong and have dominant personalities. That leaves Rafe, Lydia and Cindy who are less confrontational and not seen as physical threats. I could not help but sense how uncomfortable Rafe was sitting next to Judd last night. He was obviously trying to be diplomatic, but did mention that he was leary (at first) about being on a tribe with Judd. Also Jamie and Steph seemed to acknowledge (in a positive way) most everything Judd said, either verbally or through body language. Cindy also appears to be emerging as a player. I have no doubt that she dislikes Judd, but it was very smart of her to go along with the Margaret vote as it gives her a possible opening. She has "long term" written all over her, but by virtue of being on the wrong side of an alliance is still vulnerable pre-merge. I don't see Nakum going to TC this week, but if they do (assuming no merge) then it could be interesting. Judd 50% Cindy 30% Lydia 20% Let's say they do merge. Old and new alliances will be tested. I imagine quite a few players will secretly try to play two alliances. Physical threats would likely be targeted. I could also see a fractured vote.
Judd 40% Gary 30% Bobby Jon 20% Jamie 10% Once more info comes out I'm sure I'll change my thoughts, but that's what I'm thinking now.
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true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-05, 12:28 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Hey BR, I missed TES, but did they give a reason why they decided on Brian over Amy? I'd think with her injury, that she'd have been an easy boot for them to justify.
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echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-21-05, 12:40 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Thanks BR for clearing that up. Obviously Gary appears in with Danni/BJ and Amy would be the logical target. However I can't see anyone Amy can realistically target other than Gary, hence the football story being brought up again. Perhaps I'm putting too much emphasis on what Brandon said about Amy in TC, but I see him as a possible ally for Amy. Amy and Gary may have been close, but become spilt by virtue of numbers. They have to target one another. Bringing up Gary's past again may indeed put a larger target on Amy's back, but I don't see any other option for her. We've seen Gary with Danni and BJ, but not with Brandon. Plus we saw Brandon ask BJ about his Blake vote. Brandon may indeed play along with an Amy vote, but if I'm Brandon I'm probably very aware of how Gary is influencing BJ and Danni. It might be a good test of BJ's loyalty to talk to him about keeping Amy over Gary.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-05, 01:20 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Actually I saw the TES segment this morning. It began with Danni in a confessional saying that BJ and Brandon preferred Brian as a target over Amy, and that she was going to ask Gary first what he thought. See, this is what makes me feel that while Danni is the go between, I get the impression that she is indeed feeding off of what the others want, especially Gary. She's seeking him out here to get his opinion. She starts talking and then tells Gary that BJ and Brandon want it to be Brian and how does he feel about that. Gary notes that yes I really likes Brian but agrees that Amy is the stronger so he wants Brian out as well. It's like Danni wouldn't firm up her choice until she had discussed it with Gary first. Yes Danni was leading Brian into the number one boot choice to Gary, but I felt as if it would/could have been different had Gary argued for Brian over Amy. Gary seems to me to be sitting pretty over here. BJ and Danni both admire and respect him and his opinion. I think Amy bringing up the football lie is the only card she has to play.....it's a shame though, as I really like her. I am wondering about Brandon as a possible boot choice next week? He seems tight with BJ but I just don't know what Amy/Gary/Danni really think of him?
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Chapdog 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-21-05, 01:33 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
i like your analysis flower.. my guess is that Amy is gone this round and if they don’t merge at ten then Gary is next for them unless he can convince BJ and Brandon to take out Danni (doubtful). If the merge does happen then BJ may be in trouble.
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echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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10-21-05, 01:55 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
I just read the transcripts. It's really amazing how much power Gary already has here. Why should Danni defer to him? I totally understand how Brian got booted, but the dynamics of BJ/Brandon/Danni and Danni/Gary/BJ are interesting to me. If Gary really thinks he's tight with Danni/BJ then I guess I could see him suggesting Brandon over Amy as he has ties with Amy and I have not seen him and Brandon socializing much. That seems like a risky move to me though, one that could potentially backfire if BJ is forced to decide between going along with Gary to boot his buddy Brandon. It looks like an uphill battle for Amy, but I think she has a better chance than Brian did.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-05, 02:36 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Well, I just read Corvis' confessional analysis over at Survivor Thoughts and I have come to some drastic conclusions. At this point I really see Danni and BJ far more bound to Gary than to Brandon.(Unless this is all editing) With the spike in Brandon's D confessionals, I'm thinking that Gary will outlast Brandon, thus making the merge. At this point I think if the rationale for a boot comes down to physical strength being the biggest target, as the merge approaches they must be weary of those that could go on the "immunity runs", then I'd still say that Brandon is more of a threat than Gary, at this point anyway. I wouldn't be surprised to see either Gary or Amy make the merge.
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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-22-05, 12:33 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
FWIW, FP, I too came away from last ep feeling that Brandon is on the outside looking in with his tribe, and that his spike in face time bodes badly for his immediate future. I really hope we're wrong, but viewers are certainly being given to understand that Brandon is batting on a sticky wicket at the moment.
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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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10-21-05, 03:29 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Next episode will show if Danni is really the edited-to-win smart player many people think she is, IMO.There are only 11 people left now, and delayed merges have been so unpopular it would seem unlikely to happen again. Therefore there is probably only one more team immunity, maybe 2. Assuming there is a merge at 10, it would be wise to vote off a potentially stronger player with questionable loyalties. It would be foolish to vote off a weak player, If Danni boots Amy in the upcoming episode, she would be at risk next unless she really has BJ and Brandon in her pocket. If she boots Gary and they lose again, Amy would be an easier choice. And even if Gary stayed loyal after booting Amy, he and Danni would have to dump Brandon. Danni would be better off going into merge with 2 clear targets (Brandon and BJ) than with one person whose loyalties could change (Gary). If they are just going to vote based on keeping the strongest players, Amy will obviously go. But the time to keep the strong guys is over as of last night. So I think Gary should go next. But, it's pretty close. I'd guess Gary 60% Amy 40%
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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-21-05, 02:15 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Great start echogirl! My own take is in some ways similar to yours but with a few twists and variations.Yaxha Based on TES and some of the other transcripts coming out, I have to believe Amy is the most at risk. If BJ and Brandon were talking about booting Amy or Brian before, I don't see any reason Gary would move up on their radar screen this time around. I see no chance either Gary or Danni would get the boot. The only way Amy could save herself is to bend Gary's ear to boot some of the IC threats down the line like Brandon or Bobby Jon. But based on the previews where Amy is confronting Gary about his football past, that doesn't seem likely either. Nakum Based on editing, I'm fairly certain all six remaining members of Nakum are making the jury and nobody is getting voted out. But if I'm wrong on that, I agree on the three boot options. However, I'd actually pick Lydia as the most likely to go. While Margaret couldn't stand Judd, I don't think he has yet antagonized Steph and Jamie. Plus, with the possibility of a delayed merge, the tribe really needs Judd's strength: he pretty much single-handedly won this RC and an earlier IC. Rafe is safe. The only real options are Cindy and Lydia. Since Lydia has never been a member of the core OldYaxha/NuNakum alliance, I think she's expendable. Plus, we haven't seen much of her lately after a strong early presence, which has often been another sign of a boot. Early Merge With no castaways in challenge previews, we have to at least consider the earliest merge ever. If that happens, I think Steph rules the roost for the time being. She has a pretty strong alliance right now with Rafe/Jamie/Judd, and Gary was a previous ally of hers likely to return to the fold. Amy and Lydia strike me as followers who would likely rejoin an OldYaxha alliance. It's OldNakum that would be in trouble, and most likely their biggest individual immunity threats Bobby Jon and Brandon. Between the two I'd pick Bobby Jon. The footage of the Jamie/Bobby Jon fight plus Steph's previous experiences with BJ leads me to believe that he is viewed more negatively than Brandon. Plus, his relative lack of facetime compared to Steph makes me think he goes before her, and may not even make the jury.
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agressionx 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-21-05, 03:09 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
I agree that Amy is the next boot on her tribe and that Lydia will be the one to get the boot if Nakum happens to return to TC..I agree that I don't believe Nakum will be returning to TC anytime soon thou.... I believe that Yakum returns to TC and they vote out Amy...after TC a merge will happen Then I beilieve the weaker members are gonna united to take out the strong players...meaning Gary, BJ, Brandon, Judd, Jamie will be the next five leaving us with a final five of Steph, Rafe, Lydia, Cindy, Danni...just my opinion thou
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-05, 03:49 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
That's how I see it happening also, aggiex....if you look at our PTTE lists, they are similar in that respect but differentYours 11. Amy 10. Brandon 9. BJ 8. Gary 7. Jamie 6. Judd 5. Danni 4. Steph 3. Cindy 2. Rafe 1. Lydia Mine
11. Amy 10. Gary 9. Brandon 8. Jamie 7. BJ 6. Judd 5. Lydia 4. Cindy 3. Rafe 2. Steph 1. Danni Great minds think alike
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-05, 07:06 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
AMY I think she's toast. Well-buttered, positively edited, so sad but someone has to go toast. EPM has done a good job with merge timing twists including letting Ulong completely destruct, so I think Yaxha will not risk a pre-merge boot of a strong player when they are down so far in numbers. If they could count on a merge at 10 players they could safely boot strength in Ep 7 but I doubt they will. Spec: episode 8 brings us the Brandon or Gary waffle as the tribes do not merge until ep 9? I spec this because Gary has no spoilers that he makes jury and right now I can't see him as first merge boot; I think the initial agenda will be to take out BobbyJon. So Ep 8 is Gary's last chance to go pre-jury and right now I think he will. To me, Brandon's edit indicates he will not get really far but he will make jury and will have his piece to say at the end. I'm thinking: Amy Gary _______ BobbyJon Brandon Jamie Then I have no real clue at all, but for now I'll spec: Danni (spec Family visit at F6, not F7) Judd Steph, Rafe, Lydia, Cindi, F4. I've felt since the beginning that Rafe could win this. We'll see. As you can see, I'm envisioning a game with no huge shake-ups that proceeds similar to other games where a minority gets pagonged post-merge (BJ, Brandon) until one is left who is no longer the threat because she is a remainder (Danni, perhaps the Steph of Guatemala). Then the 6-person alliance turns on itself to take out an immunity threat, Jamie. Then Judd might be next in line but wins immunity and Danni goes. At F5 Judd would be booted about 3 days from the end and have no chance to gain back weight. He probably assumes he will be taken to F2 but is amazed that they really don't want him around any more even if he is the perfect guy to have sitting next to you. Then the F4 sort themselves out, with Cindi perhaps the Jenn Lyons of the S11 season. Lydia is capable of winning an endurance immunity, so she is quite possible F2.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-05, 09:52 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
I agree Amy is leaving next. The fun part starts after: If they do merge at 10, I'm thinking Gary would be safe at that point. Nakum would be in a majority of 6 to 4 but original tribes would be 5 to 5. Either Rafe or Steph will push to bring back Gary into the alliance to vote out Brandon or BJ (original Nakum now on Yaxha). I see Judd pushing Stephenie to keep Brandon but Danni going to Gary to keep BJ. How much ascendance would Gary have on Stephenie? The key could be Rafe. He solidified his alliance with Gary giving him II. If together they convince Stephenie that with Gary, they don't need Judd anymore, they could create an alliance of Rafe+Steph+Lydia+Gary+Danni. Now that would totally blindside Judd. Brandon,Jaime and BJ would follow depending on who wins IC. With so many strong competitors, no one will win every challenge.
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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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10-22-05, 01:49 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Episode 7 Boot Discussion" |
Depending who wins IC, and if there's no merge, my picks would be Amy or Lydia.
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paigesmom 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-22-05, 04:32 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Lydia" |
IMO, thinking post-merge, steph and bj will have a secret alliance and take some people out. I'm surprised to not see anyone mention a possible alliance between the two. It's in their own best interests. They have history after all. I'd be scared to be in a post-merge tribe with them. Would you trust them?
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-22-05, 05:12 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Steph and BJ?" |
The problem with a Steph and BJ secret alliance would be just that, it couldn't be kept secret. As soon as they are seen talking or just voting on the same side, the others will have to react. Of course, some obvious alliances (Romber) have worked but, if either want to have a chance, they'll have to vote out the other fairly early after merge.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-25-05, 12:19 PM (EST)
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23. "Tentative boot orders from TDT and Phoenix" |
True Dork Times and VolcanicGlass at Phoenix have, through their sources, come up with probable boot orders, which apparently match pretty closely. This is being discussed in an Orangeena thread on Sucks. Both say this is a best guess based on current information they've received but it could change. VG didn't post a list, but is in general agreement with TDT's list, which is represented by the current order of the Survivormeter: Amy Gary Bobby Jon Jamie Brandon Judd Cindy Lydia Rafe Final 2: Danni and Stephenie TDT qualifies in the Sucks thread: As a point of clarification, I'm not claiming that this is the exact boot order. Rather, it's my best approximation (spec), based on a handful of tips, most of which gave no specific info on boot position. So it could easily be wrong. I think it's pretty close, but it's hard to be sure. If better or more-specific info comes in, it could certainly change. The final four could potentially be in any order, but I think Danni and Steph are the most likely final two. And VG says: The order of the players as posted at Phoenix is not a definite boot order, but rather a worksheet based on all available information at this point. For now, we have kept the tribes separate, but careful reading of the info should have yielded a similar, if not necessarily exact, order as the one from TDT. Given that much of the spec here, and on other boards, had centered around the same players making the F6/F4, this is not a huge shocker. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-25-05, 06:28 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Tentative boot orders from TDT and Phoenix" |
I was having a problem with Danni's F2 position if all her allies go so quickly. I was about to propose flipping Gary and Judd so that he could stay long enough to get her to join an alliance with Rafe and Steph but then I thought of something: This boot order looks a lot as if a women's alliance is working. They got together after merge and booted out all the men, keeping Rafe as the least threatening. He would then win II at F5 and F4 but loose at F3. Making the women's alliance work would show us that Steph did learn from Palau.
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