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"Alliances revealed do not succeed"
LibraRising 2847 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-08-05, 07:44 AM (EST)
 
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"Alliances revealed do not succeed" |
I so rarely start spoiler threads, but I haven't seen one dedicated to this old chestnut yet. For those not familiar with it, it generally means that if a group of four people say early in the game: "We're your Final 4, right here"? It ain't gonna happen.Problem is, I don't think anyone has said anything like that this season. In fact, we've seen very little long-term strategizing. So either it's being hidden from us (for a reason?) or no one's thinking that far ahead at this point (unlikely). Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only one who's really even discussed the game as far ahead as the merge was Margaret, trying to keep old Nakum together until then. That, of course, has already failed. We saw two dominant alliances emerge last episode, but neither one really said much about their post-merge plans. So -- should we assume one of these manages to hold together until the end game? Or are all bets off this season?  
A Nutzy/IceCat masterpiece.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-08-05, 09:03 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Alliances revealed do not succeed" |
I'd say that all bets are off so far this season, although some old-time spoiling methods (hello cowboyroo!) are still working.However, while alliances revealed tend to not hold all the way to the final two, it often does for the final four or final 6. In Palau, the Tom/Katie/Ian alliance wasn't a tight one but it was an alliance nonetheless. Most of the time, we were led to believe that it was Tom, Ian and Gregg as this was revealed to us early in the game, so while Gregg didn't make it, it still had two of the three principals in the final three. My thinking is that we can look at the dominant alliance being shown to us pre-merge and say "two out of these three" or "three out of these four" *will* be in the final four. That's a better indication, imho, of figuring out who's the final four -- look at who's the weak link of that alliance and replace with an UTR player or someone who has been edited positively but not as a part of the alliance. Examples: in Thailand, Ted was edited negatively at times so replace him with the more UTR Batty Jan, while Helen and Clay also made the final four with Brian. Or in Palau, the weak link of Tom/Ian/Gregg was Gregg because of his relationship with Jenn -- so Jenn replaced Gregg in the final four. Katie had always been edited as the perfect F2 foil for Tom or Ian.
  
Scratch and sniff
"Tsk, tsk. Pepe's messing with the newbies again." Spidey, 3/30/05
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-13-05, 06:56 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Boot orders revealed do not succeed" |
Thought you might need a few vidcaps to illustrate your point.......in Ep4 we had Blake and BJ on NuYaxha telling us it's Amy, Brian, Gary...that will not happen and I think Blake will somehow be the one from Nakum that goes premerge...
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Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-08-05, 11:42 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Alliances revealed do not succeed" |
>I so rarely start spoiler threads,
>but I haven't seen one
>dedicated to this old chestnut
>yet. For those not familiar
>with it, it generally means
>that if a group of
>four people say early in
>the game: "We're your Final
>4, right here"? It ain't
>gonna happen.
>
>Problem is, I don't think anyone
>has said anything like that
>this season. In fact, we've
>seen very little long-term strategizing.
>So either it's being hidden
>from us (for a reason?)
>or no one's thinking that
>far ahead at this point
>(unlikely).
>
>Correct me if I'm wrong, but
>the only one who's really
>even discussed the game as
>far ahead as the merge
>was Margaret, trying to keep
>old Nakum together until then.
>That, of course, has already
>failed.
>
>We saw two dominant alliances emerge
>last episode, but neither one
>really said much about their
>post-merge plans.
>
>So -- should we assume one
>of these manages to hold
>together until the end game?
>Or are all bets off
>this season? I agree, and think that any talk about there being an original Yaxha vs. original Nakum fight after the merge is thinking too far ahead. There certainly is two potential strong alliances at this point with Steph-Rafe-Jamie-Lydia and Brandon-Bobby Jon-Blake-Danni. But they are human, and mistakes or arguments can happen which can cause those alliances to crumble. What if through some means next weak Margaret & Cindy are able to convince Lydia that she's worthless to the other 3, and Judd, feeling sorry for his betrayal, joins them to vote out Steph? Then that alliance, which had the potential to last is completely wiped out. Likely? Probably not, but who knows what will happen at this point. Thats why I feel this 'throwing challenges' to plan for post merge notion would be extremely stupid for them to do. As for any of the 2 current alliances lasting to the final 4, I'd say its possible for the original Nakum alliance, but no way for the original Yaxha alliance. Remember, the biggest reason the Ian/Tom/Katie alliance lasted to the final 3 was because Tom and Ian were by far the strongest people there and won every single immunity challenge post merge.
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agressionx 1136 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-08-05, 01:04 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Alliances revealed do not succeed" |
I in no way claim to be a spoiler but I do believe that the new Nakum will have a stronger alliannce then many believe. I have been reading spoilers on other sites and it appears to me that the following is how the rest of the game plays out..The next four I think is gonna be: Amy
Brian
Gary
Margaret Due to a late merge Yakum will return to TC. Blake--on the end of the foursome Merge: Pre-family visit BJ
Brandon
Jamie
No family visit or long term spoliers and it makes sense that the weakers member would vote out the stronger players to stop a Tom Westman Version 2 from winning. Final Six Danni
Judd
Cindy
Steph
Rafe
Lydia all six expect Lydia has family spoilers or long term spoilers..I think Lydia is gonna be dragged alone for her vote.. If it plays out like this the boot order appears to me to be Danni--last of other tribe
Judd--Stongest male/Stop a Immunity run
Cindy-outside of old alliance
Steph-had her chance final two: Rafe
Lydia
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