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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-06-05, 11:58 PM (EST) "Episode 5 Boot Options" I feel so bummed...no one even partially agreed with my Episode 4 analysis But to start things off based on the editing, group dyamics, etc for Episode 4 going into Episode 5, these are the only options for boots: Yaxha: Gary 70% Amy 25% Brian 5% The football story on Yaxha came and has been put on the back burner. If Yaxha goes to Tribal Council, there is no way the 4 Nakums are going to alter alliances. Blake is obviously tied to both Danni and Bobby Jon. Bobby Jon even told Blake to discuss things with Danni. Brandon does not seem like the type of player who would make a bold move to switchsides. We were told the pecking order: Amy, then Brian, then Gary. This would lead me to believe that Amy is probably safe, except for the fact that the previews set Brian up as the potential bootee. The Gary football story has disappeared, so most likely if Yaxha goes to TC, the story may catch up with him, and he'll be toast. Other option is that Brian is being set up to be the potential boot, and in actuality it is Amy. Brian most likely is not going anywhere. Nakum: Lydia: 40% Cindy: 35% Margaret: 25% The boot here will be among these three. Steph/Jamie promised Judd that Lydia would be next if Nakum went back to TC. This would be the smart move for the former Yaxhas to earn Judd's trust. However we know Jamie doesn't want Lydia going anywhere so it could be interesting. Cindy was pegged next on the chopping block of the Nakums before Margaret, but if Cindy keeps quiet and Margaret goes off on Judd too much for his betrayal she could very likely move herself up the line. From what we've seen in challenges, Cindy and Margaret are equal assets. Margaret may do more around camp but I think the difference is negligible. Cindy is the only UTR player left in the game that we don't really know much about and typically one UTR player usually makes it pretty far. I do find it interesting that Cindy was voted Tribe Cheerleader and we haven't seen much of her at all.... Web vidcaps and CBS misdirection should probably narrow the odds and eliminate some of the choices. As of now, my frontrunner choices for boot are Gary because he's the Yaxha perceived to be in the least trouble and Lydia because she's shown being giddy in the previews (rarely a good sign)... Without the information we're used to getting, people need to start using their brains and looking at the clues over misleading unproven speculation that is all over the place.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 1    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-07-05 3        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 14            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Quiddity99 10-07-05 42                RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 45                    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Witless 10-07-05 46                    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Quiddity99 10-07-05 47  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options lorily 10-07-05 2  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Max Headroom 10-07-05 4    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Quiddity99 10-07-05 43        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Max Headroom 10-10-05 54  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-07-05 5    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-07-05 7        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Scarlett O Hara 10-07-05 11        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-07-05 12            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-07-05 40    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options emydi 10-07-05 8    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Bravehart 10-08-05 50  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Scarlett O Hara 10-07-05 6    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options emydi 10-07-05 10    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-07-05 13        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 16        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-07-05 17            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-07-05 19                RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-07-05 21                    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 23            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Witless 10-07-05 48    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Flowerpower 10-07-05 15        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options sylvester 10-07-05 18            Peepee alliance.... Flowerpower 10-13-05 85                RE: Peepee alliance.... TanNymph 10-13-05 86        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-07-05 20            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Flowerpower 10-07-05 22        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Corvis 10-07-05 24            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Flowerpower 10-07-05 25                RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Corvis 10-07-05 28                    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Corvis 10-07-05 29                        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-07-05 35            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options emydi 10-07-05 27  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options ADKer 10-07-05 9  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options kingfish 10-07-05 26    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options emydi 10-07-05 30        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 32            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options emydi 10-07-05 34                RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 37        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Quiddity99 10-07-05 44  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options MJewel 10-07-05 31    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-07-05 36        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options echogirl 10-07-05 38  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options starman 10-07-05 33  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options MJewel 10-07-05 39  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Quiddity99 10-07-05 41    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-08-05 49        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Scarlett O Hara 10-09-05 51            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options cowboyroo 10-10-05 53                RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-11-05 57                    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options PhillyBrat 10-11-05 58                        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-11-05 61        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Quiddity99 10-09-05 52            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options chessmaster 10-10-05 55            Amy goes Ep 5 (i think) emydi 10-10-05 56  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options dabo 10-11-05 59  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Scarlett O Hara 10-11-05 60    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options emydi 10-11-05 62    RE: Episode 5 Boot Options PhillyBrat 10-11-05 63        RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Scarlett O Hara 10-11-05 64            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Brownroach 10-11-05 65                RE: Episode 5 Boot Options dabo 10-11-05 68            RE: Episode 5 Boot Options Whole Lotta Rosie 10-11-05 70  Amy Safe, ep 5 Flowerpower 10-11-05 66    RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 emydi 10-11-05 67        RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 Flowerpower 10-11-05 69            RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 emydi 10-11-05 71        RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 echogirl 10-11-05 72            RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 Flowerpower 10-11-05 73            RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 cowboyroo 10-11-05 75                RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 echogirl 10-11-05 76                    RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 emydi 10-12-05 79                        RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 echogirl 10-12-05 80                            RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 emydi 10-12-05 81                            RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 Brownroach 10-12-05 84    RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 Quiddity99 10-11-05 74    RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 GeoFreek 10-12-05 77        RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 fallingtogether 10-12-05 82            RE: Amy Safe, ep 5 mimo 10-12-05 83  RE: Episode 5 Boot Options dabo 10-12-05 78

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echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 01:26 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I kind of came around to your logic a few hours before the show but I thought it might Margaret instead of Judd who switched. Didn't change it on the vote thread though. I should go back and read what I said! I just knew it wouldn't be Blake. Nothing logical pointed to him. Amy is misdirection. I know Blake gave the boot order, but with five athletic males (okay maybe not so much Brian) I think the boot will come down to personalities rather than athletic ability. Amy seems like she has the greatest chance of fitting in. Danni totally has Gary pegged and if he does anything out of line he's first. I think that happens next week. Brian, from the prayer confessional, is obviously not going to fit in, but I see that as misdirection. In fact he may play a part in Gary's downfall. Gary is my boot choice next week if Yaxha goes and it's not even close. Nakum is more interesting. Judd has a lot to think about. On one hand Steph and Jamie agreed to boot Lydia next. However Margaret will confront him which might give Judd incentive to vote her off next. I think there is zero chance he flips back over. Cindy is safe for now. I think Margaret goes next, and then probably Lydia the next time they go to TC. That said I think Yaxha goes to TC next week. In fact I think we can pretty much determine who makes the jury at this point. In no particular order our next 5 boots should be: Gary, Brian, Amy, Margaret and one of Lydia/Blake/Cindy. Even if they are physically superior, New Yaxha will make sure Gary, Amy and Brian are gone before the merge, even if it means throwing challenges. They will find out what Judd did and not take any chances. We could go into the merge 5-5 (counting Judd with old Yaxha) and that could be pretty enertaining.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 09:11 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I somewhat agree with that echogirl; I'd say worse case scenario (if there is no further tribe switching) is that the same tribe loses Immunity all 4 times and assuming there is a traditinal merge. If this is the case, worst case scenario is that one tribe has 7 and one tribe has 3 going into the merge with 10. If this is the case, I'd say Danni,Blake,Bobby Jon are safe on Yaxha and Steph,Rafe, and Jamie are safe on Nakum. Other than the tug-o-war challenge Judd hasn't been such a star in the challenges. The way things are right now, Blake and Steph (or Jamie) are the safest on their perspective tribes. The scene with BJ and Blake taking a wizz shows that Blake is more connected than BJ because BJ wanted Blake to talk to Danni about the plan meaning Blake and Danni are closer than BJ and Danni. Brandon is on the outside at this point in time should it come down to those 4.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 11:51 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" One interesting thing about last night was that unlike Morgan/Brianna, Brooke was barely featured in her boot episode. I think they are more concerned with editing in the best material instead of developing lesser players storylines. It just so happened there was less drama in the Morgan/Brianna episodes therefore easier to show them. Interesting that you see Brandon as the most likely outsider of the four Nakum's on Yaxha. That could be true I guess. He seemed to be the closest to Judd, so I wonder what his reaction will be when they see the new Nakum as compared to Danni/BJ/Blake. I really don't see any of them going before Gary/Amy/Brian. However if the merge is ten with Danni/Blake/BJ/Brandon/Judd/Steph/Jamie/Rafe/Cindy/Lydia it could be interesting. I can't see new Yaxha giving Gary, Brian or Amy any chance to get back into this game. The key to Yaxha is what happens next. Will Judd insist that Lydia goes next? Will Stephenie and Jamie agree? I can't help but think Margaret confronting Judd puts the target on her back. If Cindy has any game it's time for her to try and wiggle into the Yaxha group ahead of Lydia. It will either be Margaret or Lydia. A note about Judd. Ego aside, I thought it was a good move on his part. With three women, he would have been the outsider in that group. Had old Nakum succeeded in winning a tiebreaker to oust Lydia, and then kept losing, Judd would have most likely been the first old Nakum member to be booted when that time came. And booting Jamie and Stephenie would have insured they wouldn't be any winning challenges.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-07-05, 08:36 PM (EST) 42. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >A note about Judd. Ego >aside, I thought it was >a good move on his >part. With three women, >he would have been the >outsider in that group. >Had old Nakum succeeded in >winning a tiebreaker to oust >Lydia, and then kept losing, >Judd would have most likely >been the first old Nakum >member to be booted when >that time came. And >booting Jamie and Stephenie would >have insured they wouldn't be >any winning challenges. I completely disagree, I thought it was a very dumb move on his part. If Nakum had voted out Lydia as opposed to Brooke, the original Nakum members would have the advantage and Judd would be safe for at the very least, the next 3 weeks and probably more since anyone booted off the team would be the weaker members from the original Yaxha. Instead he's labelled himself as a traitor and frankly, doesn't deserve and probably won't get help from anyone. He's viewed as a traitor by his original team members and the 4 now in power don't need his vote! They don't need to appease him by voting off Lydia, on the contrary, they very well may boot him off next week! The only way Judd has any worth to anyone on his tribe now is if Margaret & Cindy are somehow able to get someone from the Yaxha alliance on their side. Lydia is the logical choice. Then Judd's vote would be important as the 4th needed to vote out Steph, Rafe or Jamie. At this point its irrevelent. No matter how Judd votes, the Yaxha alliance has the 4 votes needed to knock out however they please. And I find your comment that getting rid of Steph would weaken them in the challenges absurd. If anything, Steph has proved herself as the biggest loser in the history of the show. Margaret & Cindy have won more in 3 weeks than she has in all the time she's been around. Its time to realize that its not bad luck surrounding Steph, she is the problem.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 09:16 PM (EST) 45. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I completely disagree, I thought it was a very dumb move on his part. If Nakum had voted out Lydia as opposed to Brooke, the original Nakum members would have the advantage and Judd would be safe for at the very least, the next 3 weeks and probably more since anyone booted off the team would be the weaker members from the original Yaxha. Instead he's labelled himself as a traitor and frankly, doesn't deserve and probably won't get help from anyone. He's viewed as a traitor by his original team members and the 4 now in power don't need his vote! They don't need to appease him by voting off Lydia, on the contrary, they very well may boot him off next week! One problem with your voting out Lydia theory. It would have been a tie, then you have a 50% chance of being on the majority side. Flipping gave Judd a better chance of making the merge, period. Plus once Judd gave his word to Steph/Jamie, had he retracted he most certainly would have been the next target. Judd knew with Margaret/Brooke/Cindy he was last in that alliance. He may be no better with Steph/Jamie, but at least he's in the majority group. Now if he doesn't show loyalty to Steph/Jamie he's toast, but if he does he will certainly outlast Margaret. The only way Judd has any worth to anyone on his tribe now is if Margaret & Cindy are somehow able to get someone from the Yaxha alliance on their side. Lydia is the logical choice. Then Judd's vote would be important as the 4th needed to vote out Steph, Rafe or Jamie. At this point its irrevelent. No matter how Judd votes, the Yaxha alliance has the 4 votes needed to knock out however they please. Wrong again. And why is Lydia a logically choice? Margaret and Cindy already cast votes against her. Steph & Jamie have been instrumental in keeping her around over the likes of Morgan, Brianna and now Brooke. And Judd doesn't like Margaret. Repeat Judd doesn't like Margaret. No way he goes back to her now. As for Judd's value to Steph/Jamie/Rafe/Lydia? Well since he did flip, old Nakum isn't likely to take him back which makes him valuable to old Yaxha especially if Gary/Amy/Brian are eliminated. Plus we don't know where he stood in that original alliance. Quite possibly he was not in the majority Nakum alliance to begin with, which makes this a smart move by Judd IMO. And I find your comment that getting rid of Steph would weaken them in the challenges absurd. If anything, Steph has proved herself as the biggest loser in the history of the show. Margaret & Cindy have won more in 3 weeks than she has in all the time she's been around. Its time to realize that its not bad luck surrounding Steph, she is the problem. Steph rocks in challenges. I have yet to see her single handidly lose any challenge. In Mayan Basketball was it her fault they lost, or perhaps Brianna & Lydia? In the last IC she hit her target quickly and Nakum had the lead, it wasn't her fault they lost. In Palau she consistently outperformed the men on her tribe. I guess Katie last season was better in challenges because her tribe won? Winning challenges does have something to do with your tribemates.   Top

Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-07-05, 09:41 PM (EST) 46. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >>>In the last IC she hit her target quickly Not according to Brooke on the Early Show, who said it took Stephenie 30 tries to hit the first target (it took Yaxha four) and she refused to switch out when the tribe asked her to. I figure that means she's going to be around for a while, but everyone knew that already. What you see isn't always what you get with EPMB.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-07-05, 09:43 PM (EST) 47. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 09:47 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 09:45 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 09:44 PM (EST) >One problem with your voting out >Lydia theory. It would >have been a tie, then >you have a 50% chance >of being on the majority >side. Yes there would have been a tie, but at least Judd wouldn't have caused Margaret & Cindy to turn on him like now if virtually guaranteed. >Flipping gave Judd >a better chance of making >the merge, period. On the contrary, I feel now that he has no allies whatsoever, the only way I see him lasting is if there is another switch of tribes. The smartest move for the Yaxha alliance to make now is to immediately vote him out. They still have a 4-2 majority and now don't have to worry about him down the line after the merge. >Plus >once Judd gave his word >to Steph/Jamie, had he retracted >he most certainly would have >been the next target. >Judd knew with Margaret/Brooke/Cindy he >was last in that alliance. > He may be no >better with Steph/Jamie, but at >least he's in the majority >group. Except I don't think he's in the group period. Steph and the others needed one fool from the original Nakum to jump for one week. Thats all they needed. His vote is now irrelevent as long as those 4 stick together. >Now if he >doesn't show loyalty to Steph/Jamie >he's toast, but if he >does he will certainly outlast >Margaret. Why? They don't have to show loyalty towards him at all because he now has no power! The only advantage to voting off Margaret before Judd is the fact that Judd is a man who is more athletic and younger than she. It would help them in the short term to vote of Margaret first (although if they truly cared about the strength of the members of the team, Rafe and Lydia would be the next 2 out) In the overall sense, its smart for Steph and the others to get rid of a potentially strong player now while they have the power. >Wrong again. And why is >Lydia a logically choice? >Margaret and Cindy already cast >votes against her. Steph >& Jamie have been instrumental >in keeping her around over >the likes of Morgan, Brianna >and now Brooke. Not that its likely, but of the 4 in the Yaxha tribe I feel she's the most likely to jump because she's the weakest, and hence the one who will feel the most like an outsider among those four. Yes, Steph and Jamie wanted to keep her around, but thats when they were on the original Yaxha! When the Yaxha members vote off Judd or Margaret next time she becomes like Judd, pretty expendible. With the Nakum members down to 2, they can vote her off and still have the advantage. That said, I find it unlikely that she would jump, at least next week. But her or one of the other 3 jumping is the ONLY way Judd's vote gains any meaning to it. >And >Judd doesn't like Margaret. >Repeat Judd doesn't like Margaret. > No way he goes >back to her now. Thats right. He's an ungrateful, arrogant baffoon. Which is why he's an easy choice for my most hated on the show and the guy I truly want to see booted next time Nakum loses. >As for Judd's value to >Steph/Jamie/Rafe/Lydia? Well since he >did flip, old Nakum isn't >likely to take him back >which makes him valuable to >old Yaxha especially if Gary/Amy/Brian >are eliminated. After last season where 1 strong man (Tom) dominated the show because he won practically every immunity challenge after the merge the smart thing is to get rid of anyone who has that potential as soon as possible. Which is why I think Judd becomes a big target among the Yaxha members. The only reason to keep him around is to get his vote post merge, but that may be giving him too much power which is why its smart for them to get rid of him next week. As for Steph, see the above post. She's extremely popular, thats for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if they edited the show to make her performance look better than it actually is. The fact remains, all she does is lose.   Top

lorily 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-07-05, 08:38 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I read your analysis yesterday and out of everything I read yours made the most sense so I went with it in the pool I am in. I think you were right on except for the who was the person that turned. I choose Brooke to be voted off because of you. You certainly did a lot more thinking than True Dork and Survivor Fever did. They were way off once again. Thanks for your analysis.   Top

Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 10:17 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Hey, wait a minute, I believed your analysis-- I was one of the three enlightened people who picked a Brooke boot, based primarily on your posts! On the upcoming episode, you've got more good points. The Yaxha tribe dynamics have changed with the swap and Gary doesn't seem to be the type to quickly adapt, so I see him being on the block from his tribe. The ex-QB story keeps coming up but nothing can be proven as long as Gary continually denies it. But Gary's group of old Yaxhas is outnumbered, meaning one of them goes if they go to TC. And Gary is wearing a target as a leader-type. As for Nakum, Judd's departure leaves Margaret on the block. Previews show Margaret confronting Judd about his switcheroo, which is an enormous tactical error. Yes, Judd is a traitor, but Margaret needs to shelve the emotions and remember that Judd was never that fond of her to begin with. Margaret's outburst at Judd will make it easy for Steph and her cronies to convince Judd to move Margaret ahead of Lydia on the boot list. That way Steph keeps her core alliance of 4 intact for another round without having to betray anyone, and Judd can be disposed of at a later date if it becomes necessary. Just my two cents' worth. Generally I'm not much of a spoiler, but you've gotten me thinking about what happens next.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-07-05, 08:41 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 08:41 PM (EST) >As for Nakum, Judd's departure leaves >Margaret on the block. >Previews show Margaret confronting Judd >about his switcheroo, which is >an enormous tactical error. >Yes, Judd is a traitor, >but Margaret needs to shelve >the emotions and remember that >Judd was never that fond >of her to begin with. > Margaret's outburst at Judd >will make it easy for >Steph and her cronies to >convince Judd to move Margaret >ahead of Lydia on the >boot list. The problem with your theory is that Steph and the other's don't need Judd's vote anymore. Regardless of how Judd votes, the 4 in power can vote off whoever they choose. Does Judd want to boot off Lydia? That really is irrelevent. In fact I predict here and now that if Nakum loses next week, he's the one to go. Margaret's certainly in danger, but Judd's the one who painted the big target on his back by betraying his fellow tribe mates.   Top

Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-10-05, 11:41 AM (EST) 54. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" You have a good point for the short-term, but I was thinking longer-term. If Steph and the rest of the Fantastic Four can keep Judd voting with them, that can only help after the merge. A block of 5 votes is better than a block of 4 votes, and Margaret and Cindy are easy targets in the meantime.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 10:35 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" roo, congratz to you and Max Headroom and Bravehart for getting it right. Frankly I did not believe we would get a third invisible bootee, but the editing style seems to have shifted away from the things we used to look for. The bootees don't even necessarily get airtime in their own boot episodes anymore (we heard people talking about Morgan in Ep 2 and about Brooke last night, but did either one of them ever say anything? I don't remember it if they did). The big mistake a lot of us made was thinking that because Gary was being questioned about football again, he was probably the red herring boot. In retrospect there was no real reason to believe that; we knew the tribes were switching and it was logical for it to come up again now that he was meeting new people. But it didn't have to mean his tribe was going to TC. Nevertheless, we didn't know which tribe would end up with 8 people. I thought it was ridiculous to use the notepad seating arrangement to place people on their new tribes when there was no evidence that it would matter (and it didn't). As far as next week, I hesitate to predict anything based on editing anymore, but I do think there is a possibility that if Yaxha goes to TC, the boot would be between Amy and Blake. Amy was heard worrying that she, Gary and Brian would be picked off. And suddenly we heard Blake speak -- to Bobby Jon about strategy, with ominous music in the background (hopefully applejack will have more to say about that). Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 10:46 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Thanks BR, but I disagree on Blake. He is not going anywhere yet. No chance at all. Especially seeing that an original Nakum is gone, there is NO way, the 4 Nakums are going to take a chance of defecting. Nope, nope, nope. Not gonna happen. Blake may be the "glamorous life bragger" but if that is the case, it won't lead to his boot, just misdirection. If Yaxha goes to TC, Gary or Amy are gone, most likely Gary because they keep showing us how hard Amy is working to hide her ankle. If Amy loses that battle and causes the IC loss, she's toast. If she's able to keep her cover, Gary's toast. Its kind of ironic that they both have something to hide that if that hidden thing gets out would lead to their demises. Brian is clearly the misdirection. On Nakum, its a tossup between Lydia, Cindy, and Margaret. The smart move for Steph/Rafe/Jamie would be to boot Lydia with Judd. Lydia is not in Rafe/Steph's core alliance, and Judd would be, filling in for the loss of Brianna or Morgan. To earn Judd's trust, Steph/Jamie/Rafe would have to make good on their deal. However if this was going to happen, I think Margaret/Lydia would have been more prevalent in the previews. 80/20 that Yaxha goes to TC this week. And I repeat....Blake is NOT going anywhere   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-07-05, 10:56 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" And I repeat....Blake is NOT going anywhere ... and I agree whole-heartedly!! I think he is receiving the same type of editing as Danni (and many of you may disagree with me there ) -- I think their stories have yet to be developed and that tells me they will both be sticking around for a while. There was a rumor running around the boards this week that it was Blake who was going. I think this was a "plant." As Spoilers, we need to make up our own minds and base our decisions on logic, not heresay.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 11:26 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I said between Amy and Blake (okay, maybe Gary instead of Amy). The three Yaxha's have to vote for someone. They aren't going to vote for each other. Someone else has to get votes besides Amy/Gary. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 06:38 PM (EST) 40. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I'm starting to think the one going on and on about the glamourous life may be Danni. She's in broadcasting. She was married to country singer Wade Hayes, she's been in beauty pageants, and there has to be some distraction from the obvious Yaxha minority boot. What is interesting is it seems TDT is pointing to a Blake boot already for this week. I just can't see how that could possibly happen, especially with Brooke booted. Even if he were deathly sick, I'd still think they'd boot Amy first to have an upperhand.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 10:51 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I disagree with one point BR, the seating itself did not come into play but the vidcaps of the four Steph Jamie Lydia Rafe after Gary and Amy were picked for picnic and Brian for most school spirit did in fact show the 4 Yaxha now Nakum...and that's what I based my "guess" that the NuNakum would contain those 4...and usually the tribes stay the same with nos. so I also "guessed" that Nakum would be 8. So the vidcaps did give us a heads up on that But I do agree that editing is a bit different this time I can't wait to read VS' post on this episode!! I too still think Blake is a potential pre merge boot...maybe later rather than sooner now...thanks for heads up about the music...I will wait to hear what AJ has to say on that!!   Top

Bravehart 264 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-08-05, 10:49 PM (EST) 50. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Thanks for the congrats BR! I do enjoy reading your posts. Congrats to Coyboyroo and Max Headroom as well! Congrat to JazzyJax, body and michel for picking Brianna is ep3. I went with my gut that the third boot would be another hidden one (Brooke) because we hadn't seen any clear alliances form yet. I'm 3 for 1 so far but forgot to make my picks on the Spoiler Island game...kicking myself now! LOL EPMB is all or nothing...I think he gives it to us obviously...too obvious sometimes, or not at all (ala the last 3 eps). This weeks ep entitled Crocs, Cowboys and City Slickers I think is too obvious as to refer to Gary. It must refer to another Cowboy. Some are speculating that NuNakum throws the IC, while I agree this would be a logical thing to do, I just can't see Steph letting that happen (you know what happens when you lose all the challenges). My initial reaction for the next boot is Cindy, although I see TDT has Cindy in the F4. How reliable are these spoilers?? I don't see Judd going anywhere this week, Steph and Jamie will keep him for the numbers alone. So if NuNukum go to TC this week I see a Cindy or Margaret boot. If NuYaxha go to TC I think it will be a Blake or Amy boot. Still, it's too early to make a pick. I'm really thrilled this season wasn't completely spoiled, the specualtion around these boards is terrific! Bravehart ps. Recently changed my addy so had to alter my handle a little, also explains the low posts #.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-07-05, 10:43 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 11:01 AM (EST) The football story on Yaxha came and has been put on the back burner. ... The Gary football story has disappeared ... I beg to differ, dear Cowboyroo, I think we are about to jump into this story with both feet! It was very apparent to me that last night's immunity challenge was "made-to-order" for who? Why, the NFL Quarterback Gary, that's who. However, we saw last night that he did not come forward to partake in the long pass, did he? However, they got lucky and still won that challenge. There is only one problem for Gary, and that is Danni, who knows his secret. She knows who he is and she knows that he could have easily hit that target. I think next week we will again see a Challenge custom-made for our NFL Quarterback and I think he will again, not step up to the plate. (Perhaps, our resident City Slicker Judd, will beat the Cowboy in the challenge?) There will come a time however, when Danni is going to call him on it. Perhaps this will be in Ep. 6 whose title is "Big Ball, Big Mouth, Big Trouble?" As of now, my frontrunner choices for boot are Gary because he's the Yaxha perceived to be in the least trouble ... Based on what I just stated above, I have to disagree with you again. For next week, I think we will again see the continuing story of Gone with the Weakest. ETA: Congrats on your correct choice for Bootee. I too, posted in the Boot Thread yesterday that I had a strong feeling the boot would come from one of the two "hidden" peeps -- it would be either Brooke or Cindy. I still feel that with Bobby Jon and Stephanie in the game, it is all about winning the challenges this year, and therefore, the pagonging of the weakest! That is of course, until Ep. 6 when the Sh!t hits the fan for Gary!   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 10:52 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" scar..see my post in esquire's thread...what do you think about a "WEAK alliance" on NuNakum....Rafe is key there!   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 11:30 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Hey Scarlett, I meant in the previews for next week....even though the title alludes to it...Its funny how several of the challenges can be "football related". And I agree, Gary is going to avoid anything that will confirm what Danni says. That could be his story line. He is trying so hard to hide the fact that he was a quarterback and by dodging that stuff in the challenges, he will help lose a challenge that leads to his boot. I'm starting to agree with you on the pagonging the weak. I'm leaning more toward an Amy boot now over Gary, but still have Gary on the back burner. I'm pretty confident Brian is safe, and pretty sure Yaxha is going to TC this episode, or they would have played up the Cindy/Margaret/Judd stuff more in the previews. I'm also starting to think (forgot to mention this earlier) that there is some signifigance editing-wise to Jamie getting nibbled on by a fish. I see it could mean one of two things: a) He's not going to be fooled by the "crocs" and outlive Steph or b) He's not that good a player and will be tossed by the work of a "fish (monger)" over that of a "croc (Steph)"   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 12:10 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Gary isn't very bright! Last night when Danni confronted him he even admitted going to the same college that NFL quarterback attended! And I think he intentionally avoids the limelight in any challenge that might show his talents. In fact he hasn't been all that impressive in challenges at all. Not a weak link mind you, but he hasn't shined in any of them. Contrast that with Brandon, Blake, Danni or Stephenie. Jamie is an intersting character. I'm unsure yet whether he's a good player, but I was impressed by him last night. He does understand what a threat Steph is, but was able to put that aside when things didn't go his way after he mentioned her during the Morgan boot episode. I think a showdown will come, but it appears they need each other now so I predict any showdown will be after the merge. And I think Stephenie will win that showdown. Lydia may indeed be a key. If Margaret goes next and Yaxha makes sure (even by throwing challenges) that Gary/Brian/Amy go pre merge then Lydia's target is removed. She won't be seen as an individual immunity threat. However if the fragile alliance between Jamie/Steph breaks up too soon it could be the demise of both of them.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 12:10 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Danni might not be too keen on booting Amy because then she would be the only woman on the tribe. And likewise Amy probably wouldn't want Danni out first (although Gary would). I think the Yaxhas would end up targetting one of the guys (I'm guessing Blake for now but it could be any of them). Danni would likely have to defer to what the Nakum guys want to do. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 12:16 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Good thinking BR. I'm thinking Danni may be our prima donna and Gary rallies to get rid of her. I think we will see a Danni/Gary showdown either this week or next.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 12:34 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I'm thinking more Ep 6 with that Big Mouth, Big Trouble title. So -- what will Brian, Gary, and Amy do when Yaxha has to go to TC? They know they are sitting ducks but I don't see them just laying down and dying. And Brian is a schemer. They will almost certainly try to flip someone. Danni might actually be the one they go for -- it would be attractive for Gary because if she's in an alliance with him she'd presumably keep her mouth shut. And also attractive for Amy since it puts another woman into her alliance. Say that happens in Ep 5. If Danni considers flipping and then doesn't, it could set the stage for the commotion in Ep 6. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 12:45 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I could see Gary or Brian approaching Danni. And I don't see Gary, Brian or Amy going down quietly. And honestly the more flip-flopping (like Judd) the more interesting the show becomes. However Danni appears to be sitting pretty right now! I like her position with BJ/Blake/Brandon better than I did Judd's with Margaret/Brooke/Cindy. Her thing with Gary is fun, but a showdown is upcoming. Originally I thought perhaps Blake was the outsider of these four, but perhaps it's really Brandon. I think a telling sign will be how they react to Judd flipping. I'm sure Margaret will do everything in her power to let them know it wasn't a tie, but was Judd who flipped. If Brandon was the closest to Judd, I'm especially interested in seeing his reaction.   Top

Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-07-05, 09:49 PM (EST) 48. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >Danni might not be too keen >on booting Amy because then >she would be the only >woman on the tribe. >And likewise Amy probably wouldn't >want Danni out first (although >Gary would). > I think Danni and Amy are both very comfortable with guys. And if I were there, I wouldn't mind being the only woman on the tribe at ALL. The men on Survivor consistently underestimate the women and spend too much time considering the macho threat. If one woman was left, I would think they would all pretty much ignore her when it came to the boot as long as she wasn't annoying. I think Danni has a better shot there than Amy, but I think Amy probably gets along great with the guys, too. My problem with the PP alliance is that they laid out a boot list. It was a perfectly logical boot list, exactly the right strategy for them to take. But--strategies revealed never succeed.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 12:06 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 12:09 PM (EST) okay, time for my 2 cents....may be worth only 1 cent now, lol! But at any rate I see Gary's story arc coming to a rapid crescendo right now. As Scarlett pointed out, last nights IC was hand made for a professional quarterback, but Gary did not even try. While the Yaxha's ended up winning it anyway, I think Gary's lack of participation is really going to urk Danni. Then, with next week's title regarding the "Cowboy", I also see Gary failing to contribute to his teams effort in the IC which, imo, will lead the Yaxha's to TC. Gary, I think will escape this boot in ep 5. But when they get back from TC the poop is going to hit the fan and Danni is going to outright challenge the lying player....Gary will not step up to the lie that he's told or to the challenge, and when they go to TC in ep 6, Big Mouth, Big Ball, and Big Trouble Gary will be toast....and all because he stuck to his strategy and doesn't come clean. I predict Gary out in ep 6. Now back to ep 5. I do see Gary failing to rise to the IC challenge and the Yaxha's back to TC. The one person you are discounting is Brandon. I do NOT trust him at all, he was in cahoots with Judd and probably has some animosity toward Blake. I do think that Blake, Danni, and BJ are tight and will stick together. I do not trust Brandon to do the same. I can definately see Amy, Brian, Gary, and Blake all as premerge boots, I'm just pointing out that when BJ and Blake had their bathroom alliance plan to take out Amy, Brian, and Gary, I heard absolutely NO mention of Brandon. I really like Blake and think he's a key factor in winning the challenges. But, I question his longevity when I have suspicions about Brandon. I don't want you to discount Blake as a premerge boot. As for little Lydia over at Nakum. I think the website teasers could be referring to her as the one who blazes through a challenge leading to an awesome reward. Perhaps it's a puzzle challenge and Lydia really rocks at it....that could be why she is on the high in the previews, dancing around camp singing that she's the queen! So if she is redeemed a bit at Nakum then perhaps Cindy will be their first target or perhaps Margaret, as you suggest... And don't forget your hidden boot theory, so far the most hidden in the preview are Gary, Blake, Brandon, and Jamie.   Top

sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 12:14 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" "I'm just pointing out that when BJ and Blake had their bathroom alliance plan to take out Amy, Brian, and Gary, I heard absolutely NO mention of Brandon." LMAO FP! BJ and Blake are now the PeePee alliance to me.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-13-05, 06:50 AM (EST) 85. "Peepee alliance...." Here's a little something for you cat!   Top

TanNymph 309 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-13-05, 09:20 AM (EST) 86. "RE: Peepee alliance...." FP you are so bad. lol   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-07-05, 12:20 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I think hidden boot theory is only because there are so many people and not time to develop all of them. Really, the only two people at this point that are somewhat hidden are Cindy and Rafe. For Cindy, being the team cheerleader was a schock, because we haven't seen much of her, but that shows she is a positive person and easier to get along with than Margaret when it comes down to it.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 12:35 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Yes, this hidden boot theory is a quandry. It's extremely hard to distinguish between a player that's an early boot so why bother developing them or a later boot/end game player as why develope them now as there's so much time later! Sounds like we need some VS input! the peepee alliance.....has a nice ring to it! Ha!   Top

Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-07-05, 12:58 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" "I'm just pointing out that when BJ and Blake had their bathroom alliance plan to take out Amy, Brian, and Gary, I heard absolutely NO mention of Brandon." The original Nakum alliance was Brooke, Brandon, Bobby Jon, and Danni. This is one spoiler I am very sure of. So I think Bobby Jon was pulling Blake into the alliance because Brooke was stuck on the other tribe and they needed to make sure they were a solid four. He didn't need to talk to Brandon because he knew they were on the same page.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 01:44 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" The original Nakum alliance was Brooke, Brandon, Bobby Jon, and Danni. This is one spoiler I am very sure of. Hmmmmm....I would be thrilled if this spoiler is true, as it would cement the pagonging of Amy, Brian, and Gary, in that order. BUT, this alliance has not been hinted at in the show other than I, as a viewer, felt that the men were indeed bonding, but I also thought Brandon was more in line with Judd than with BJ. I did think that Blake and Danni liked each other as Danni went running into his arms after the ep. 3 basketball challenge. I am just VERY reluctant to buy into a spoiler, when quite frankly I question wether anyone has any real inside info this go round. I'm even wondering if Snewser was a no show as even his source/s ran dry? But Corvis, I have always held you in high regard on these matters so, I will take your word for it!....guardedly, but I'll do it!   Top

Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-07-05, 02:31 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I am certain that was the alliance when they were all at Nakum. One never knows how alliances change so I understand if you don't pull all your eggs in the basket. And to answer the question below, this was not shown on the show, but rather something I got from a source before I decided to go source free.   Top

Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-07-05, 02:37 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Here's confirmation of my alliance spoiler from Brooke herself: RNO: Before your tribe was split and reformed, who had formed alliances that you knew of? Brooke: Danni and I had an alliance and then she had talked to Brandon and Bobby Jon about what our next move/vote would be so before the merger, I felt pretty secure. Link to interview   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 04:06 PM (EST) 35. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" There's been quite a bit of hostility toward Stephenie in the interviews with the last three boots. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 02:16 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Wait when was this the Canoe 4 wer Jamie Brandon Danni and Brooke and Brooke suggested ousting BJ the first week...when did this other one arise?   Top

ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-07-05, 10:52 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Please keep posting! Your analysis was great, and to the point. The dissenting voice adds alot to the discussion. I had nothing to add to your anaylsis other than, yeah, that sounds good, which would not really advance the spoiling. Without some insight to add, I did not see the point in posting, but I really appreciated your thoughts. Please don't get discouraged and quit.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 01:50 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Nice work C'boy. There were a lot of (seemingly) logical theories, depending on what assumptions one was prone to make. My problem was (and is)that I could look at it several ways, each way presented a different logical outcome. I guess we all had that problem. It's that kind of season. AS to Gary, if he maintains his cover, it's only Danni that knows (or strongly suspects) his real story. To the others, it's his word against hers. If he keeps to the lie in a believable way, he may have a chance. I assume he practiced his deception to the point of deciding that if asked about his college, that he would admit to C. Mich, if only to be able to talk knowlegably about it. If he ever owns up to his deception (Gary's big mouth?), his story will be over. Amy essentially said that, and I think that's why that confessional of her's was included. So he probably will blab. Gary seems like a stereotypical jock to me, not as bright as one might hope. I, for one, would like to see him pull it off. Just for fun. And, I think Judd may be at risk. The way for Steph etal to procede would be to oust him, not Lydia. If they are going to break their word with him (which they should do, strategically), they gotta do it now, or face his reaction in aftermath. That would keep their original team (4 of them, anyway) intact for three more weeks, and possibly to the merge. The other two (marg, Cindy?) would be pagong meat pending another tribal swap (which JP actually hinted at at TC). Ironically, as pointed out by Esquire (I think) elsewhere, It would be better right now for Steph et al to lose a few ICs, as long as they have Pagonging material and can keep their own team intact till the merge. (I can't see her actually doing this though, I think the Croc eyes - hungry, merciless - are hers). And she would keep their original teammates from being pagonged from the other 'New tribe. With the new alignment, strength in the competitions is not the asset it used to be.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 02:43 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" And, I think Judd may be at risk. The way for Steph etal to procede would be to oust him, not Lydia. If they are going to break their word with him (which they should do, strategically), they gotta do it now, or face his reaction in aftermath. That would keep their original team (4 of them, anyway) intact for three more weeks, and possibly to the merge. The other two (marg, Cindy?) would be pagong meat pending another tribal swap (which JP actually hinted at at TC). I like this idea very much kingfish...I hope Jamie and Steph are ballsy enuf to to do it...why let Judd stick around til merge...if they don't get Lydia next they HAVE to vote Judd off. He deserves it!! Jamie and Steph played the "city slicker" like a fiddle....let's hope... I don't see Steph throwing any challenges though..but they won't have to...I see NuNakum losing at least 2 if not more of the next 4 ICs (presumably to the merge at 10) and Judd and Margaret will be gone. Cindy will benefit from being UTR and she becomes our F4/5 Jenn/Darrah in Guatemala. Margaret's only hope is to turn Rafe and Lydia to her side... If Jamie and Steph haven't already told Rafe of the Brooke for Lydia deal, they shouldn't chance it bc Rafe could get mad and tell Lydia and then Margaret would have an opening. Just go to Rafe and say we are turning on Judd. Rafe will do it.. remember, he's using Sandra's "As long as it isn't me" strategy.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 03:54 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" And, I think Judd may be at risk. The way for Steph etal to procede would be to oust him, not Lydia. If they are going to break their word with him (which they should do, strategically), they gotta do it now, or face his reaction in aftermath. That would keep their original team (4 of them, anyway) intact for three more weeks, and possibly to the merge. The other two (marg, Cindy?) would be pagong meat pending another tribal swap (which JP actually hinted at at TC). I like this idea very much kingfish...I hope Jamie and Steph are ballsy enuf to to do it...why let Judd stick around til merge...if they don't get Lydia next they HAVE to vote Judd off. He deserves it!! Jamie and Steph played the "city slicker" like a fiddle....let's hope... Actually I don't think Judd is at risk at all. In fact I think it would be foolish to oust him anytime soon. Booting Judd before Margaret or Cindy isn't very logical as Judd can't easily go back to old Nakum, which includes those now at Yaxha. Judd can give Steph/Jamie information on the dynamics of that group as well fully knowing that Judd will be seen as a traitor, thereby becoming a target for that group as well. I thought Judd may have been in the majority alliance at Nakum, but it is apparent he was no better than a fringe member if that. The only boot that makes sense now is Margaret, and Judd can't really do anything about it. The more Judd/Margaret argue, the better Steph/Jamie look as it makes it easier to convince Judd that Margaret needs to go next. Allowing Margaret to stay in the game (over Judd) is the worst thing Steph/Jamie could do now. I don't see Steph throwing any challenges though..but they won't have to...I see NuNakum losing at least 2 if not more of the next 4 ICs (presumably to the merge at 10) and Judd and Margaret will be gone. Cindy will benefit from being UTR and she becomes our F4/5 Jenn/Darrah in Guatemala. Margaret's only hope is to turn Rafe and Lydia to her side... Why would Rafe and Lydia swap now? Lydia just got three more votes and she is going to flip to a pair that voted for her? Nope. I don't think Lydia is much of a strategic player, but I do think she appreciates those who fought to keep her. If Jamie and Steph haven't already told Rafe of the Brooke for Lydia deal, they shouldn't chance it bc Rafe could get mad and tell Lydia and then Margaret would have an opening. Just go to Rafe and say we are turning on Judd. Rafe will do it.. remember, he's using Sandra's "As long as it isn't me" strategy. Don't think it matters much. I think Rafe's strategy is to get along with everyone and let other targets emerge. He seems very friendly with Steph and Lydia, and also Gary in old Yaxha. Once the merge hits and a power struggle occurs I think we will see more of a visible Rafe strategy as he decides which "pair" to go along with. He does seem to have a bit of Sandra in him, just not as confrontational.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 04:04 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" echo..I think the only reason to keep Judd is for his brute strength...but he wasn't that great yday in IC challenge.. The idea Kingfish put out there for Jamie & Steph: ...you used Judd to get your majority, not vote him off fast unless you are going to stick by your word and vote off Lydia..which is not strategically the right thing to do. Why let him get mad at you for not keeping your word..you have the nos. vote him off sooner rather than later...if you screw Judd over you don't want Judd anywhere near the merge... Also, the WEAK ALLIANCE is a pipe dream of mine..but that's the only card that Margaret has to play...get Lydia mad enuf at STeph and Jamie for bartering her for Brooke and hope Rafe will get mad too..but in reality Rafe and Lydia are safer just to stick with Jamie and Steph..and if Lydia comes to Steph and Jamie about the Brooke for Lydia deal..Steph & Jamie can just say they really didn't mean it, they just needed to get the upper hand over Judd...   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 04:30 PM (EST) 37. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" No Judd wasn't great at the challenge. Unless it involves brute strength like the tug-o-war, he hasn't distinguished himself. That said I see no logic in voting him out before Margaret. How does that make any sense strategically? If Judd insists on Lydia, which I don't think he will if Margaret explodes, then you just say sorry Judd and vote out Margaret anyway. Judd can't go back, and even if he tries it's 4-3. If Judd becomes a problem, then he (not Lydia or Cindy) could go next. But I don't see that happening. Judd switching IMO was more Judd's doing than Steph/Jamie's doing. He did not see himself benefitting in a group of Margaret/Brooke/Cindy even if they would have won a tiebreaker. He mentioned he had no problem voting old Nakum members out. If he thought he was solid in Nakum, why take the chance? It seemed obvious to me that if Margaret/Brooke/Cindy were forced to vote out a Nakum member pre merge it most certainly would have been Judd. As abrasive as Judd can be I don't think he's stupid. As for Lydia/Rafe? I think they are with Steph. Better off with Steph than Margaret IMO.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-07-05, 08:55 PM (EST) 44. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >And, I think Judd may be >at risk. The way for >Steph etal to procede would >be to oust him, not >Lydia. If they are going >to break their word with >him (which they should do, >strategically), they gotta do it >now, or face his reaction >in aftermath. That would keep >their original team (4 of >them, anyway) intact for three >more weeks, and possibly to >the merge. The other two >(marg, Cindy?) would be pagong >meat pending another tribal swap >(which JP actually hinted at >at TC). > >I like this idea very much >kingfish...I hope Jamie and Steph >are ballsy enuf to to >do it...why let Judd stick >around til merge...if they don't >get Lydia next they HAVE >to vote Judd off. >He deserves it!! Jamie >and Steph played the "city >slicker" like a fiddle....let's hope... Judd's the easy choice because the Yaxha alliance doesn't even need all 4 to get rid of him, after he betrayed Margaret and Cindy they would be happy to vote him off. With Judd gone they can get rid of Lydia and still have a 3 to 2 advantage then take their pick of Margaret or Cindy. Getting rid of Judd now would not only be easy, but would help down the line after the merge when a 'potentially' (he did blow this week after all) stronger person is gone.   Top

MJewel 1951 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 10-07-05, 03:48 PM (EST) 31. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I don't see Steph wanting to boot Judd. She knows what it is like to boot the strong players and continually lose. IMHO I think she would have learned her lesson. They may go back on their word about Lydia to keep their alliance strong and vote out Margaret. I think Cindy would be a stronger player than Margaret. On Yaxha, Amy could be a possibility as the brief shot of her ankle...a foreshadowing of a boot?...Maybe. I think Danni would vote with her alliance. Another possibility is Brandon could switch sides and vote with old Yaxha members and boot off Blake. Foreshadowing of Jiffy saying about the trustworthiness and switching sides. I know he said this during TC and we could all assume it was just about Judd but it could be about next week to. I think though if Yaxha goes to tribal council and old Nakum members stick together then Amy (following the weakest members go theory) would get the boot and Gary would be the next week's boot. Blake would be the off the wall boot that people might think no way and then it happens. Just some thoughts to ponder.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-07-05, 04:21 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-07-05 AT 04:22 PM (EST) They may go back on their word about Lydia to keep their alliance strong and vote out Margaret. Judd isn't in a position to force them to stick to their word. He's made his bed and has to lie in it. And frankly, I don't think he's really gonna care about it. He wasn't "getting the love" from Margaret and Cindy so he'll probably be just as glad to get them off. Especially since they consider him a traitor. Why let them get to the merge? Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-07-05, 04:42 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Judd isn't in a position to force them to stick to their word. He's made his bed and has to lie in it. And frankly, I don't think he's really gonna care about it. He wasn't "getting the love" from Margaret and Cindy so he'll probably be just as glad to get them off. Especially since they consider him a traitor. Why let them get to the merge? Exactly. I can really see Margaret getting under his skin now, so I really don't see him worrying much about her. Margaret also called Judd out at TC. Margaret will get NO LOVE from Judd now, and you're right they never cared much for one another to begin with. Also why did Margaret/Brooke/Cindy play for a tie? Why didn't we see one of them actively trying to recruit a Yaxha member?   Top

starman 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-07-05, 04:03 PM (EST) 33. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Nice job "roo" I did not tivo the ep. but after JP sent nuYax off I seem to remember almost a slo-mo cut of Amy knuckling up with Gary. Could someone confirm? I can't piece this together with convo of Amy saying Gary is toast if he is the x cowboy. help starman   Top

MJewel 1951 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 10-07-05, 05:19 PM (EST) 39. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I think you are right about Judd not caring one bit. He also does not seem to be one to be able to strategize very well. If he was he would have voted for lydia and taken his chances on the tie. After all, it's about surviving in the game not whether you like someone or not. He may not like Margaret but she would have stayed with him till the merge I bet. I do still think that Margaret will go before Cindy. Two reasons: 1. Cindy seems to be stronger and younger and 2. Judd really dislikes Margaret. I think too that we will see a lot of Yaxha boots before the merge and something tells me Cindy makes it to the merge...JMHO. It definitely has been an interesting season so far.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-07-05, 08:26 PM (EST) 41. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Cowboyroo said: "Nakum: Lydia: 40% Cindy: 35% Margaret: 25% The boot here will be among these three. Steph/Jamie promised Judd that Lydia would be next if Nakum went back to TC. This would be the smart move for the former Yaxhas to earn Judd's trust. However we know Jamie doesn't want Lydia going anywhere so it could be interesting. Cindy was pegged next on the chopping block of the Nakums before Margaret, but if Cindy keeps quiet and Margaret goes off on Judd too much for his betrayal she could very likely move herself up the line. From what we've seen in challenges, Cindy and Margaret are equal assets. Margaret may do more around camp but I think the difference is negligible. Cindy is the only UTR player left in the game that we don't really know much about and typically one UTR player usually makes it pretty far. I do find it interesting that Cindy was voted Tribe Cheerleader and we haven't seen much of her at all...." --- I disagree about Lydia. While you say it would be smart for Steph and the others to boot Lydia in order to earn Judd's trust, the fact is that his vote is now completely irrelevent to them as long as their alliance of 4 remains. They only needed his vote once, and they got it. As long as they outnumber the original Nakum members they could care less what he thinks. Booting Lydia would knock it back down to 3 per tribe; hence I really can't see that happenening until they have a 4 to 2 advantage. My prediction: Judd: 50% Margaret/Cindy: 30% Steph: 20% My reasons: Judd, simply put, screwed himself tonight. He's put a big red X on his back due to his actions. The 4 person alliance has no reason to vote for him since they got all they've needed from him. And Cindy & Margaret won't go along with him again after they betrayed him. A 6-1 booting of Judd will be no surprise to me. Particularly after that pitiful performance in the challenge where he cost them the win. Margaret or Cindy is the predictable, although dumb (from Nakum's end) choice. Both are stronger than Lydia, Steph and Rafe but its all about the alliances now and the very weak group of people has the extra person, giving them the power. M & C's only hope is to make Judd feel extremely guilty about what he did, and then convince Lydia to jump and vote out Steph 4-3.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-08-05, 11:46 AM (EST) 49. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I disagree still....On the old Yaxha, the alliances were Gary/Steph/Rafe/Amy and Jamie/Lydia/Brian so in actuality, Steph/Rafe are not going to be too hurt to get rid of Lydia. If there was not a tribal shuffle, NO doubt Lydia would have gone next. But they were looking at it as they still had a 4-3 ratio so they could get rid of Brianna before Lydia for challenge sake (at least Lydia tried). By no means are Jamie and Steph on the same page longterm. Jamie wants Steph gone at the first possible strategically sound moment. Judd will not go anywhere due to the lack of strength at Nakum. They need him now. He is safe for a while at least. If Nakum goes to TC again this week, I'd say Lydia is toast. Cindy and Margaret are much stronger challenge-wise and losing two in a row, Steph will not let that happen. Lydia's longevity in the game relies on Nakum winning a few IC's in a row. After thinking about the dynamics on Nakum, Lydia is by far the most vulnerable if Nakum goes to TC again this week. Cindy/Margaret are now having to be in the "any one but me" mode. Even if they can pull Lydia in, they are still down 4-3. Rafe/Steph will vote together and they can easily pull Cindy/Margaret in temporarily to vote out Lydia. It buys them 3 more days, regardless of what Jamie/Judd want to do. Over at Yaxha, people are saying that Amy can't go anywhere because BJ/Blake listed her as number one boot in their pagong list. I would say this is true IF they showed her as vulnerable in the previews. In both the web and tv previews, Amy was not shown as vulnerable at all. Brian was set up as the misdirection. TDT is seeming pretty confident that Blake is gone this episode which makes no sense to me at all. I'm not saying it can't happen but it would really, really be a stupid move. The only way I could see it happening is if somehow the voting signals get crossed and two of the four old Nakums vote for one person and the other two vote for someone else. Which is possible with the Blake/Bj situation of probably Blake talking to Danni and BJ talking to Brandon and would be HYSTERICAL (but doubtful). If the Yaxha Three could pull that off and then vote as a unified block to a 3-2-2 vote, that would be an awesome coup. However, the most logical boots are Lydia and Amy (or possibly Gary if he doesn't take an active role in the challenge that favors a quarteback AGAIN..we see in the vidcaps Brian tossing the balls) depending on who goes to TC. Part of what to look for, for me, is looking who is playing the game aggressively and who is not.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-09-05, 08:01 AM (EST) 51. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" TDT is seeming pretty confident that Blake is gone this episode which makes no sense to me at all. I think they are thinking this because there is a Spoiler out there who is telling them that this is so -- that they have a "source". I also think this is why everyone voted for Blake this past ep. You throw a name out there and peeps become like lemmings. I don't buy it however. IMHO, Blake is sitting pretty on his new tribe with Danni, BJ and Brandon. There is no way they will vote him off unless Brian, Amy or Gary can get one of those four to flip like Judd just did. I don't see it happening, but I've also seen bigger surprises occur in this show! Time will tell.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-10-05, 11:06 AM (EST) 53. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" I totally agree with you there Scarlett... Blake is sitting about the safest of anyone. I really get a kick out of the posts that people act like they are using logic and come up with a "For Yaxha, Blake is toast if they go to TC"...just cracks me up...We've got 3 more days to figure this one out and not get pulled into the tricks. I would say 99.9% that the boot will be one of: Amy, Gary, Cindy, Margaret, or Lydia. .1% allowed for crazy stuff people do on the show... A lot of people are saying the Big Ball, Big Mouth title has got to do with Gary, but I don't see it at all. We've seen the "Roll the Big Ball" challenge a few times already, and big mouth to me could be someone trying to stir up stuff by telling different things to different people. From the IC caps, we see Brian catapaulting the ball (another challenge that would favor the skills of a quarterback) and if Yaxha loses, I think Danni will blow his cover. This could be where she gets into her arrogant on and on about glamorous life experiences, trying to prove to the rest he is lying....   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 10:59 AM (EST) 57. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" TDT may still be relying on the outside tips about Blake. He thought the info from xbalanque about Blake leaving in Ep 4 was solid, but off by one week, and now he seems to have gotten a separate tip from elsewhere saying Blake is gone by Ep 5. 1% allowed for crazy stuff people do on the show... Like Leanne suddenly deciding the women needed to vote Eliza out in Vanuatu, paving the way for Chris to turn the tables. I will say that Blake's continued low visibility worries me after the way the last three episodes have gone. And according to Corvis, Blake wasn't in the original alliance with Bobby Jon, Danni and Brandon. Maybe if the nuYaxhas try to influence Blake to switch sides, the others will become suspicious and he'll get booted instead. Sort of like what I thought might happen last week. The most logical approach says Blake should be safe, but we know these contestants often don't do the logical thing. I also agree that Danni might be the glamorous gabber. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

PhillyBrat 172 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-11-05, 11:17 AM (EST) 58. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >TDT may still be relying on >the outside tips about Blake. > He thought the info >from xbalanque about Blake leaving >in Ep 4 was solid, >but off by one week, >and now he seems to >have gotten a separate tip >from elsewhere saying Blake is >gone by Ep 5. > >1% allowed for crazy stuff people >do on the show... > >Like Leanne suddenly deciding the women >needed to vote Eliza out >in Vanuatu, paving the way >for Chris to turn the >tables. > >I will say that Blake's continued >low visibility worries me after >the way the last three >episodes have gone. >And according to Corvis, Blake >wasn't in the original alliance >with Bobby Jon, Danni and >Brandon. Maybe if >the nuYaxhas try to influence >Blake to switch sides, the >others will become suspicious and >he'll get booted instead. >Sort of like what I >thought might happen last week. > > >The most logical approach says Blake >should be safe, but we >know these contestants often don't >do the logical thing. > > >I also agree that Danni might >be the glamorous gabber. Ok well We have Danni Pegged as this Glamorous Gabber could it be that she gets the other three men from her prior tribe mad at her? Or at least signal to her, once it is down to us four you are the first one to go? Could Danni pull a Judd and knock out one of her own becuase she is "low man" on the pole? Brandon and BJ could see keeping Blake around as they both know or at least think that they could beat him in challenges, and we were shown that at least Blake and BJ are "togeter". What if the three men are together and are pulling Danni as their 4th? ALSO could the OFFSET of JUDD VOTING OUT A NAKUM WOMAN Makes Danni want to vote out a NAKUM Man? Revenge for what he did? There are all kinds of methods on how Blake could go. However the real question is... Who would have a good enough reason to turn. Judd (in my opinion) had a good reason. Does anyone on new Yaxia have one as well?   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 12:06 PM (EST) 61. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Who would have a good enough reason to turn. Judd (in my opinion) had a good reason. Does anyone on new Yaxia have one as well? Not really. Blake is the newbie in the Nakum alliance, but he seemed committed to the alliance last week. Unless the "culture clash" causes a real shake-up in the tribe dynamics (which I kind of doubt). But someone probably *will* be approached about turning. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-09-05, 09:27 AM (EST) 52. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >I disagree still....On the old Yaxha, >the alliances were Gary/Steph/Rafe/Amy and >Jamie/Lydia/Brian so in actuality, Steph/Rafe >are not going to be >too hurt to get rid >of Lydia. If there was >not a tribal shuffle, NO >doubt Lydia would have gone >next. But they were looking >at it as they still >had a 4-3 ratio so >they could get rid of >Brianna before Lydia for challenge >sake (at least Lydia tried). > >By no means are Jamie and >Steph on the same page >longterm. Jamie wants Steph gone >at the first possible strategically >sound moment. Judd will not >go anywhere due to the >lack of strength at Nakum. >They need him now. He >is safe for a while >at least. I agree that Jamie doesn't like Steph that much and would love to get rid of her, but the smart move for his sake right now is to stick with her and vote out Judd. This will make Jamie the strongest male on the team so he's certainly got reason to vote Judd off. As for Lydia, like Judd last week, if Steph-Rafe-Jamie can keep her on their side for just one more week, then she too becomes worthless to them since they'll have a 4-2 majority, with only 2 of Judd/Cindy/Margaret left. Then they can vote her out the next time they lose and still have a 3 person advantage. Now this is where things can get a little more interesting. The 2 remaining members of Nakum can try their hardest to flip Jamie and vote out Steph 3-2. This is most likely if Cindy & Margaret are the ones left, and somehow find out his hatred of her. This is the only way I see Jamie attempting to boot Steph before the merge. Like Jamie, I want to see Steph go badly. But I think its smarter for him at this point to stick with her for a little while. >If Nakum goes to TC again >this week, I'd say Lydia >is toast. Cindy and Margaret >are much stronger challenge-wise and >losing two in a row, >Steph will not let that >happen. I'd disagree because Judd is a traitor, and there's no guarantee he'll stick with Steph, Rafe and Jamie. Voting out Lydia wouldn't be wise until they have a 4-2 advantage. They don't want to take the risk of losing their majority. Cindy & Margaret certainly are stronger than Lydia (in fact I'd say stronger than Steph and Rafe without a doubt as well), but they've got to be thinking about alliances this point, not strength. Well if they're smart. Steph has shown herself to be dumb before, it could happen again. >Lydia's longevity in the >game relies on Nakum winning >a few IC's in a >row. I agree, but I think she's safe until one more member gets voted off. I find it nearly impossible that she gets booted this week. >Over at Yaxha, people are saying >that Amy can't go anywhere >because BJ/Blake listed her as >number one boot in their >pagong list. I would say >this is true IF they >showed her as vulnerable in >the previews. In both the >web and tv previews, Amy >was not shown as vulnerable >at all. Brian was set >up as the misdirection. Since the old Nakum has the strength on Yaxha, they don't really have to worry about voting out a weaker player too early since that won't destroy their majority. I think Amy's the next to go for that simple reason. Unlike Nakum, voting out the weakest will not affect their majority at all. Who goes on Yaxha if they lose is a much easier choice than Nakum IMHO. Too bad for Amy though, as one whose from Revere, MA, right near where I live I would have liked to see her go far. >TDT is seeming pretty confident that >Blake is gone this episode >which makes no sense to >me at all. I'm not >saying it can't happen but >it would really, really be >a stupid move. The only >way I could see it >happening is if somehow the >voting signals get crossed and >two of the four old >Nakums vote for one person >and the other two vote >for someone else. Which is >possible with the Blake/Bj situation >of probably Blake talking to >Danni and BJ talking to >Brandon and would be HYSTERICAL >(but doubtful). If the Yaxha >Three could pull that off >and then vote as a >unified block to a 3-2-2 >vote, that would be an >awesome coup. I agree, BBBD have the majority and the strength right now and voting off any of them at any point (Gary's the only one whose arguably as strong as any of them, but he holds himself back too much to hide his identity) until they're all thats left on Yaxha is quite dumb.   Top

chessmaster 25 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-10-05, 12:42 PM (EST) 55. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" After viewing the insider clips, in particular Rafe's interview, I get the impression the order of voting out would be Margaret, then Cindy, then Stephanie. Apparently the dynamics of the last episode were very personal - Jamie and Judd clicked really well, and both of them really disliked Brooke. I just think there is NO way Jamie & company should or will allow the possibility of Cindy + Margaret rejoining their former tribemates in a merge, with a 6 vs. 4. Margaret & Cindy have proven that they WILL vote along the original tribal lines, whereas Judd does not care about the tribal lines. If Judd goes, I think it would be due to Stephanie & Rafe teaming up with Cindy or Margaret (whichever is left) if they fear that Jamie & Judd are too close. But Jamie clearly votes on personality. If it comes down to 5, I suspect that Jamie would his closeness with Judd & Lydia to finally oust Stephanie, but somehow I don't see Stephanie leaving ahead of a merge. The post-show interviews by Brianna & Brooke are VERY negative on Stephanie (Brooke sounds very resentful) .. My guess is the pre-merge boots will be Margaret, Amy, Cindy & Gary Lydia probably isn't going anywhere. Apart from Jamie, Rafe apparently also really likes her, and "wants her to go far" per his interview. Margaret and Cindy are easy boots from a strategic perspective.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-10-05, 01:52 PM (EST) 56. "Amy goes Ep 5 (i think)" Quid were we separated at birth...I think you're my surv spoiling twin I had many of the same thoughts you did in this post. I think NuYaxha loses IC (mind you I have to defer to FP who usually is right on the vidcap analysis and I don't know what she thinks on that yet) either by throwing it (I really don't see this happening but BBBD won't be too upset if they lose) or just missing it. The typical viewer would expect NuNakum to lose many of the pre merge ICs. Remember Irony!! EPMB LOVES IT! So the clear majority is there and we were told by the PP alliance that it's Amy Brian Gary...no way that happens in that order....but I think the first one does go. THe title to this week's show is quite harmless and I think it will be a pretty boring show (as opp to Ep 4 which was zigzagging all over the place) and thus a "boring" result. Therefore, it's finally an "expected" boot and Amy who the majority of us had going in Ep. 2 and 3 finally is a victim of her ankle and the nos. of a post swap world. I just don't see how BAG change it...no reason in the world for BBBD to even talk to them now. At least Judd...even though it was a really bone head move...had one reason, albeit not strong reason, to do it...to avoid a tie. BBBD don't have to worry about a tie...I would just not even talk with anyone (YET). Therefore, they just go to TC and do as planned. I do believe that NuYaxha goes a few more times to TC too.. Gary and EP 6 are on a collision course!!! Brian and Danni are talking lies about Central Mich and Dallas!!! Brian will NOT sit back and let himself get pagonged. He will use what he has THE LIE and work Danni who in turn will work BBB. If they go again to TC with Brian as the only Yaxha left on NuYaxha I see something like Ibe's immunity saving him or he gets Danni and Brandon to off the sickly Blake--no. 4 in the BBBD alliance. _____________________________________________________ If NuNakum goes to TC, I agree with Quid and guppy, they have to get rid of Judd!! I just don't see Margaret (editing wise, etc.) as going out this early...Judd has premerge boot written all over him, esp. now after the Ep 4 gufu. yeah,it's from Lost, and its a PM   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 11:31 AM (EST) 59. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Thing is: What happens in New Yaxha when news of Judd's betrayal jumps to their tribe during a challenge meet? Power at New Nakum is now a five-way alliance, for all they know, of Yaxha4+Nakum1. The Nakum4 in New Yaxha have lost two OriginalNakum in one boot. At the very least they need to examine the idea of building a five-way alliance in New Yaxha, either Nakum4+Yaxha1 or Nakum3+Yaxha2. Obviously, a Yaxha should be their next boot if they go to TC, but if they reallign Nakum3+Yaxha2 they may think they're safe voting out the solo Nakum (not seen a lot of great strategy this series yet). At New Nakum the Yaxha4 are sitting pretty, why should they off one of their own just to make Judd happy? If Judd doesn't like it, his vote doesn't matter now anyway.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-11-05, 11:50 AM (EST) 60. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-11-05 AT 11:51 AM (EST) FWIW, I am now leaning toward a Nakum IC win that will send Yaxha to Tribal Council. I think Amy is the one who says "I'm surrounded by Crocs, Cowboys and City Slickers." Why is she saying this? Because she is feeling vulnerable. Why is she feeling vulnerable? Because her tribe is going to Tribal Council, and she knows she is the weakest remaining old Yaxha member on her tribe. Therefore, following along with this year's theme so far of "Gone With the Weak," I am predicting an Amy boot this week.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 12:55 PM (EST) 62. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Now will your sister join the dark side with us Scar?? Another reason I see an Amy boot... Ep 5 will be a BORING episode...boring title. boring (and finally expected) boot. Unlike Ep. 4 which was crazy... I can definitely see Blake going ahead of one of the BAG, and maybe at the outset, 2 but NOT all 3!! But cowboy .1% is always a possibility but that doesn't make it a probability...sort of reminds me of that stupid cross examination ?...is it POSSIBLE??? well of course anything is possible....how many times have you seen that on Law & Order? But I predict another production change (either another swap or double boot granting immunity) being the demise of Blake to the benefit of Brian, imho. I even thought maybe as a variation of double boot, that the Old members of each tribe get to vote out the bootee in their old tribe...but probably not a great possibility....   Top

PhillyBrat 172 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-11-05, 01:32 PM (EST) 63. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" >LAST EDITED ON 10-11-05 >AT 11:51 AM (EST) > I think Amy >is the one who says >"I'm surrounded by Crocs, Cowboys >and City Slickers." Why >is she saying this? >Because she is feeling vulnerable. > Why is she feeling >vulnerable? Because her tribe >is going to Tribal Council, >and she knows she is >the weakest remaining old Yaxha >member on her tribe. >Therefore, following along with this >year's theme so far of >"Gone With the Weak," I >am predicting an Amy boot >this week. I can totally agree with your thinking here that Amy is the one that would say the phrase here. (Crocs and Cowboys being obvious) However why does it mean she is vulnerable? Couldn't she just be talking about the new dynamics of her tribe since they won immunity and thus got more time to "know" one another? Bratz   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-11-05, 02:02 PM (EST) 64. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" ...why does it mean she is vulnerable? ... Well, for one, we already know she is feeling vulnerable. She told us this last week in her confessional. She was referring to the fact that her new tribe now consists of 3 telling us that she is indeed, vulnerable. Now, for this week, as Spoilers, it would be fun if we could predict what leads Amy to say "(I'm surrounded by) Crocs, Cowboys and City Slickers." IMHO, it COULD be because Yaxha is going to Tribal Council and she is feeling vulnerable because she is not fitting in with her group -- she is neither a "Cowboy" nor a "City Slicker."   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 02:09 PM (EST) 65. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Did I miss something? WHY are so many people saying "so-and-so will be the one to say this" about the title? No one said "Big Trek Big Trouble Big Surprise" in Episode 1. No one said "Man Down" in Episode 2. No one said "To Betray or Not to Betray" in Episode 4. I doubt that anyone will say "Big Ball Big Mouth Big Trouble" in Episode 6. Only the Ep 3 title has been an actual quote from a contestant. This sounds like a title dreamed up by CBS, with its cutesy alliteration. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 03:03 PM (EST) 68. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" Brandon said "Man Up!" in ep 2. Not exact, but close enough to perhaps count as a source for the title. One of the problems I have with an Amy boot (which I'm not ruling out) is that she really isn't weak. She's tough and playing through the pain of her injury. And both tribes are valuing the competative edge this time.   Top

Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-11-05, 03:22 PM (EST) 70. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" LAST EDITED ON 10-11-05 AT 03:36 PM (EST) What I really liked about Cowboy’s analysis was that it wasn’t necessarily focused on who should be booted, but who shouldn’t. So who is safe, and who isn’t. Nakum (Safe) Steph: Long term player. Rafe: Long term player. (Pretty Safe) Jamie: While he has a beef with Steph it was placed on the back burner last episode. Cindy: Corvis’s confessional analysis says she isn’t going anytime soon. Lydia: VS says she has legs. (Vulnerable) Judd Margaret Two strong boot choices here, but they were focused on during the previews and while this will definitely be a theme this week, I don’t see it playing out this episode, because all of our major themes are in: Yaxha (Safe) Danni: Long term player BJ: Doesn’t quite have the long-term longevity as Danni but I would be stunned if he didn’t make the merge. (Pretty Safe) Brandon: Narrator edit, but I bumped him down only because I didn’t really like his edit last episode. He just looked so tired. However he appears to be firmly entrenched with BJ and Danni so unless he reaches a quit point or becomes so weak he becomes vulnerable, I don’t see him going. Vulnerable (but only if MB changes his boot pattern) Amy: I spoke with my brother last night who only watches the show when he is chasing his two-year old twins around the room. He thinks Amy is gone next week. Even in prior seasons, when MB isn’t really hiding boots, he is rarely this obvious. (sorry emydi) Vulnerable: Gary: His “football lie” is his story and it has been heavily, and, like Amy deliberately developed. I tend to agree that it will be next week, but it could easily be this week. I am not sure how much longer they can string this story along. Brian: He has been seen as less vulnerable than Gary and Amy, which could be a negative if MB is hiding the boots. He is a character, but I am not sure if he is a long-term character. Blake: However, if MB is really hiding the boots Blake is the only other option. There is no reason why Blake should go. While he is in the dominate alliance, he does not have a long-term story and if Brian, and I think it would be Brian, is able to flip someone on the Old-Nakum it would be Blake who would go. In addition the entire PP alliance seemed to be forced, see VS has some excellent comments regarding this in the editing thread. ETA Amy is safe. I just said that before/after you said that. I need to type faster. Nice job FP.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 02:21 PM (EST) 66. "Amy Safe, ep 5" Amy is safe for ep 5 as she is seen in an article in TV Guide for the ep 6 show. See the Big Ball, Big Mouth, Big Trouble thread. Lydia, Cindy, Danni most likely also seen....   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 02:59 PM (EST) 67. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" thanks FP...I'm always wrong on my boots so no big whoop hmmmm....so Amy Cindy Lydia and Danni are safe... and Ep 6 is DB.... So if I stay w/ my irony NuYaxha IC loss EP5 it comes down to Brian Gary or Blake (as an outside possibility)....what makes them switch their "order up" so early...must think about this...or maybe its as expected and NuNakum goes...then its Judd or Margaret...I think I am holding onto Margaret bc I saw her as a potential winner at the beginning but now she seems more like Jeanne from Amazon.... Also, I wonder if "immunity" will be given to someone on NuNakum or NuYaxha like when Ibe got it in Palau...will they use that same thing again...I don't think so...but there has to be something....I thought maybe that the original tribes get to vote off a person from the new tribes. Either OldYaxha (BAGSJRL) get to vote the NuYaxha member off (making BBBD the targets) and Old Nakum (MJCBBBD) gets to vote off the NuNakum member which would be SJRL or JUDD if M lets it be know that Judd switched....this would give the POWER to the minorities on both tribes!! I like it...that's why this will not happen.... so FP will you be editing your switched boot order in PTTE--u can up to Thurs at 7:59 pm?   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 03:13 PM (EST) 69. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" so, FP will you be editing your switched boot order in PTTE--u can up to Thurs at 7:59 pm? Sure I will, emy....will I be penalized 5 points X 2, or just -5? Since Amy was the obvious choice for an ep 5 boot had Yaxha gone to TC, I am now considering the Nakum's going....I could definately see Brian/Amy/Gary individually approaching various members of the Nakums at NuYaxha to swing a deal, but I still do not see Blake ending up the biggest target...the target would still most likely be either Brian or Gary now at Yaxha, but I am seriously considering the Nakum's. To me, that's where it's getting exciting. We know that Jamie is gunning for Steph, and we know that Steph knows it. We also know that Jamie and Judd were the two that really bonded and hit it off. Don't you think Steph is a little weary of Jamie and his new buddy Judd. Suppose Steph thinks that down the road Jamie could get Judd to go along with him and target Steph. We also know that Cindy and Margaret are now "cornered" and will do anything to stay, and above all despise the traitor Judd. We know that Steph values strength, but does she value it more than she values booting Jamie out. Here's her chance. If the Nakum's go to TC, Margaret and Cindy will most certainly plead their worth to Steph. Here's a chance for Steph to really take control of the game and get the serious numbers and take care of the threatening Jamie. Steph really could have her choice....Jamie or Judd, it wouldn't really matter. This all makes perfect sense to me, BUT, we know that she knows they've got to have the strength for the challenges. So, does she risk being vulnerable to Jamie/Judd later, or will she opt to deal with them now? That's the question.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 03:29 PM (EST) 71. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" just one 5 pt penalty per week...you can change it as you so desire...the last one before 7:59 pm Thursday counts! I am leaning towards a NuNakum loss too now...I was so hepped up on Jamie last week that I don't know if I can push for him myself..I think the smart thing for Jamie and Steph at this point is to just get Judd.....Steph could be very indecisive as we know from her Ulong days....and want to keep the HEmen around for a bit longer...then I think it's Margaret... If it is the ironic NuYaxha...I'm leaning now towards a Brian boot....VS pointed out to me that it would be ironic for him to go bc last week he was the only one of the OldYaxha not to be seen as vulnerable. So its Brian(possibly Gary) or Margaret(or possibly Judd)   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-11-05, 05:24 PM (EST) 72. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" I think it does come down to Gary or Brian. Sources be damned, as I still don't see a logical way Blake could go this week! And since Blake/BJ gave the boot order (Amy first) I automatically crossed her off. If previews for E6 show she's still around, that works too! IMO Gary's story is done. The football thing has been brought up (and denied by Gary) three straight episodes and I'm sure will be focused on again. I think a climax is coming this week. Maybe Gary will fail in a challenge, or perhaps City Slicker Brian will have a little talk with Danni? This will either lead to Gary's boot (most likely IMO) or Brian if Brian's tactics are seen as threatening. I don't think Amy or Brian would hesitate to vote off Gary if it gives them three more days. And as an observer I don't think this story can be dragged along much further. He either has to come clean this episode or he's gone. Nakum is more interesting IMO. Can't wait to see the confrontation between Judd and Margaret. I personally don't see Judd being in danger, but much depends on how he reacts. I think Nakum wins IC and the drama with Judd continues. If he's being edited for a fall like Gary, I would expect his story to be drawn out more, like Gary's has been. Right now my boot pick is Gary. Alternates: Brian and Margaret.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-05, 05:58 PM (EST) 73. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" Yes, I think you are on to something, Echo! IFYaxha loses the IC and go to TC this is what I see happening: First of all we know that as far as BJ and Blake are concerned, Amy would be their first pick. We know that Blake is the low man on the totem pole, and we can deduce that BJ is not calling the shots in that alliance either, he's definately not the leader. So, either Danni or Brandon decides that they would rather pick someone else off first. I'm speculating that it will indeed be Danni that chooses to boot Gary out. She knew he was a professional quarterback and that that last IC was tailormade for a QB, yet Gary didn't even try to help. This will really urk Danni in that she knows it's more important for him to live his lie, than to give the game and their tribe everything he's got. She knows what a powerful adversary he'll be once the challenges become individual as well. Danni will choose the old Nakum alliances target this week and Gary will get the boot and go and live at loser lodge with his lie intact. Gary and all his "D" confessionals finally exit. If Nakum should lose the challenge, I really think either Jamie or Judd will go. Cindy and Margaret will sell their souls to remain in the game, and Steph and her little dog Rafe, will call them on it. They've got the numbers and to heck with the big strong man(Judd or Jamie, personally I think that Steph and Rafe would pick Jamie first but I think that Lydia really likes Jamie, so maybe Lydia, Margaret, and Cindy all talk Steph and pup into booting Judd first). Totally can't predict which will be going to TC.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-11-05, 07:49 PM (EST) 75. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" I'm in total agreement with you echogirl. I'm up to 75% Gary, 15% Margaret, 10% Lydia. I don't think Brian is going because of the previews. He's being set up as the potential boot with his complaining about the praying, but we see him praying so he is smart enough to do his complaining off camera. If Amy is present in the TV Guide preview...I have not seen teh actual photo..are we sure it is there and not a misassumption?? then Gary is likely the choice. I agree the football thing has been played way over the top, and we are shown in the previews that Brian is the one flinging the balls (not the quarterback who should have expertise in this area). We also see Lydia dancing around that she is the queen. Is she the ball tosser for Nakum, thus meaning Yaxha goes to TC. I cannot see any way in which Blake is going anywhere unless we have some really, really, really stupid people out there. No matter how sick he may be, booting him is not an option for at least two more boots, ESPECIALLY since one of their Nakum players went last time at TC. They are not going to take the chance to be that down in numbers. Gary doesn't take the reins and take the role he is suited for and allows Brian to step up to the plate and they lose the IC because of it. Danni lets cat out of bag once again, goes into her who she knows because of her job montage to prove she is right, then untrustworthy, challenge ruining, want to be in charge Gary gets tossed. I think the big mouth in the next episode is Margaret. With a double boot, possible the reason we saw SOOOO much of the Mother Hen thing was that they do like last year and get to give someone immunity. Whereas Margaret started out as the nurse to the sick guys, she turned to mother hen and they vote Cindy Immunity over Margaret and she gets tossed. For Yaxha, it will be Brian or most likely Amy who go. Please, please, please don't let me here its gonna be Blake!! Blake is safe at least until Ep. 7.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-11-05, 10:34 PM (EST) 76. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" I'm about 85% Gary, 10% Brian and 5% Margaret. The title (Crocs, Cowboys & City Slickers) suggests Yaxha will be featured which leads me to believe Yaxha is going to TC. Last week we saw Gary confronted again about being a quarterback (second time by Danni) and we've also seen this from Brian. Also Amy said she would "kill Gary" if she found out he was a pro football player. Can't remember if those were her exact words, but Gary is treading shallowly with his horrible lies (he even admitted going to Central Michigan) so I see his story coming to an end this week. And I see a 6-1 vote. BJ/Blake gave an order of Amy/Brian/Gary and I think it might be reversed. It makes sense for Danni to try and keep around Amy the longest. Plus we do see Amy (along with Danni, Steph and Cindy) participating in E6's Big Ball Challenge. So Amy is safe. Plus I think it's Danni, not BJ/Blake, calling the shots. She isn't going to give Gary a chance to make it to the merge, and his lies give her an excuse to rearrange the boot order. Gary is toast. Next week's big mouth? No doubt Judd and Margaret go at it! I could see either being the Big Mouth. And if the other tribe gives immunity to someone it will likely be Cindy. I really think Cindy is going to be a longterm UTR Darrah/Jen type player, not a Morgan/Brianna/Brooke. As for Blake? I'm thinking he could be the first post-merge boot, just missing the jury. I'm also thinking it could be a 5-5 tie. The last pre-merge boot will be the key. Right now I'm thinking Gary this week, and a double boot of Brian/Margaret the following week. That leaves me to think either Amy or either Judd/Jamie goes as the last pre-merge boot, depending on who Steph thinks she can trust the most. Rafe & Lydia (who I think survives) will stick with Steph, and Cindy would vote for anyone to make the merge. I think Cindy escapes. In a 5-5 vote I can see Blake being targeted as he's good in challenges, and I don't think Steph would target BJ right off (she may decide she can use him) and if Judd remains in the Yaxha alliance he won't want to target his best old Nakum buddy Brandon.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-12-05, 11:37 AM (EST) 79. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" j--you stole me answer, almost I think it will be GBA or GAB DEF. not ABG--In GBA...it could be Blake as B not Brian...sorry cowboy. Something is nagging at me about Brian and his longevity and that double boot episode in Ep 6 is too...I think the "twist" (like Ibe's Imm. in Palau and I do not think it will be the same "twist") will turn the tables somehow and make the weak strong and the strong weak on each tribe at TC...which may lead to a Blake and Judd/Jamie boot in Ep 6.   Top

echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-12-05, 01:07 PM (EST) 80. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" Next week's double boot could be interesting. I'm really thinking the tribe that wins the IC may be able to give someone on the losing tribe Immunity. I'm really convinced it's Gary this week, but anything could happen after that. Brian hasn't really done anything yet that fits the villian status he was somehow given. I do think it's possible he will play a role in Gary's ouster this week, but will that qualify? Even though I think Brian would be the next to go, cutting one original Yaxha member makes it 4-2 Nakum which opens the door for some manuevering and a possible Blake boot E6. Much depends on how they react to Judd's flipping. Either that makes the Nakum 4 tighter, or they decide old tribal lines are not that important. Since I really like Amy I'm hoping there is a way she can make it to the merge!   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-12-05, 01:39 PM (EST) 81. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" I just don't think they will use the same twist as last year...maybe some variation of it...but not same...a lot of these guys are Survivor fans that know ALOT about the show..Brian Danni Lydia? not to mention BJ and Steph...they want to keep them on their toes. I think Blake is a premerge boot period. His editing screams it it reminds me of Ibe's editing. Ep. 5....no reason for BBBD to do anything but boot GAB...and I agree Danni is in control there and she leads them towards Gary. So Blake I think will go in Ep 6 double boot....the double boot will be the reason he goes when it is not "logical" otherwise- cowboy . The other bootee Margaret or Judd over on NuNakum pending further review of preview for ep 6.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-12-05, 02:22 PM (EST) 84. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" Brian hasn't really done anything yet that fits the villian status he was somehow given. Brian gave himself that ostensible status, in an article that came out around the premiere. According to his friend, Brian was convinced he would be portrayed as the Ivy League villain. Brian knew that from what he said and/or did in Guatemala, he *could* be edited that way. That doesn't mean he *had* to be edited that way. The only thing I took away from his comment was that Brian wouldn't be one of the very earliest boots: he's seen all the shows, and would know that a villain edit runs a course over some time. He isn't in a position to do much now. If Yaxha has to go to TC this week, he might instigate a plan to get one of the Nakums to flip. That would be sort of devious. But I think his "villainy" probably consisted mostly of making snarky remarks about his tribemates (we got a hint of this when he took credit for the Morgan boot). By this point, I don't think it's too early for Brian to leave. Not saying he will, but he can. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-11-05, 06:32 PM (EST) 74. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" >Amy is safe for ep 5 >as she is seen in >an article in TV Guide >for the ep 6 show. >See the Big Ball, Big >Mouth, Big Trouble thread. Lydia, >Cindy, Danni most likely also >seen.... Phew, good to see Cindy & Amy alive at least one more episode (although I really have a hard time believing Amy will make it past 2 Yaxha losses at the most). I guess this points to Margaret as the most obvious boot in episode 5, although I still feel Judd has a good chance of being the next to go.   Top

GeoFreek 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-12-05, 01:10 AM (EST) 77. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" >Amy is safe for ep 5 >as she is seen in >an article in TV Guide >for the ep 6 show. >See the Big Ball, Big >Mouth, Big Trouble thread. Lydia, >Cindy, Danni most likely also >seen.... > If you look at the spoilers on SurvivorFever, it looks like Cindy and Steph on one side of the ball and Amy and Danni on the other, not Lydia. I think this leaves Lydia and Margaret as an option for boot this week for Nakum and Gary, Blake, or Brian as possible Yaxha boots. Just a guess. I think Margaret for Nakum or Gary for Yaxha are the leading bootees. I'm sure I'm totally wrong since I have been the entire time, but I'm doing my best for a newbee.   Top

fallingtogether 85 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-12-05, 01:54 PM (EST) 82. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" I disagree. Those are Lydia's shorts, not Steph's. I remember them. So I'd say it is Lydia and Cindy vs. Amy and Danni.   Top

mimo 563 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-12-05, 02:05 PM (EST) 83. "RE: Amy Safe, ep 5" they could be lydia's shorts (these people do seem to swap clothing quite a bit), but that's definitely not her hair. gold-blonde curly pony-tail... looks like steph to me.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-12-05, 01:50 AM (EST) 78. "RE: Episode 5 Boot Options" After a good long and interesting spoiling day, here's how I see things stacking up: Should New Nakum go to TC: Cindy, Jamie, Stephanie and Rafe are safe; Judd, Lydia and Margaret are at risk. Judd has little leverage left in Nakum, just his value in strength at challenges, which basically works against him in terms of he will give 110% in order just to save himself. The Yaxha may see the value of keeping him around, but a proven turncoat lives on borrowed time in this game. Nominally, Lydia should be safe, the Yaxha would be fools to let Nakum regain parity in New Nakum, but foolish things have happened before in Survivors. Judd got an agreement they would boot Lydia next after Brooke, he was a dope but keeping him happy could play against her. Margaret has no game left except to try to turn the tables on Judd. She's hanging on at the end of her rope. Assessment: Margaret 70% Judd 15% Lydia 15% Should New Yaxha go to TC: Amy, Bobby Jon, Brandon and Danni are safe; Blake, Brian and Gary are at risk. Blake should be safe, the Nakum would be fools to allow the Yaxha to gain parity in the tribe, but as noted with Lydia, sometimes in Survivor they throw logic out the window and do foolish things. Blake is the least valuable of the Nakum alliance, a reallignment with one or two Yaxha could leave him on the outside looking in. Brian is of little value in such a male-dominant tribe, but he could perhaps position himself well if he plays the angles of shifting alliances created by Judd's betrayal and Yaxha gaining control of NewNakum. Or attempting that could provoke his being booted. Gary should be seen as a valuable challenge asset, except he holds back sometimes in order to preserve his "I'm Not Hogeboom" strategy. It might also seem wise to off him before the game gets to individual challenges. Assessment: Brian 40% Gary 30% Blake 30%   Top

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