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"SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 02:41 PM (EST)
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"SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
Oops! I completely forgot about this yesterday. Sorry!

The Rules

1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Amy. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote.

2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women (which would explain why I haven't seen any episodes this season). Y'know, I'm not sure if I've been clear enough about this. Curves on women are really great things. Y'know what else is good? A nice MLT. Mutton, lettuce, and tomato with just a little bit of mayonnaise. Mmmmm.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Blake (or Whoever)". That said, there is not an exception to the fact that curves on women are good.

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please.

4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren). And really, if I can refrain from flashing the greens at 100 posters, surely you can refrain just this once from extolling IceCat's animated glory, no?

5. Have fun. That's an order.

(And thanks to both BebeKid and Dabo for the reminder. I need to check my email more often.)

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Amy Flowerpower 09-21-05 1
 Amy PepeLePew13 09-21-05 2
 Amy Scarlett O Hara 09-21-05 3
 Amy redbeard103152 09-21-05 4
 Amy travelingbetty 09-21-05 5
   RE: Amy body 09-21-05 6
 Gary forehead 09-21-05 7
 Amy JazzyJax 09-21-05 8
 Amy... RudyRules 09-21-05 9
 Amy MJewel 09-21-05 10
 Gary littletown 09-21-05 11
 Blake smokedog 09-21-05 12
 RE: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time ... michel 09-21-05 13
   RE: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time ... SherpaDave 09-21-05 17
 Blake kingfish 09-21-05 14
 AMY applejack93 09-21-05 15
 Amy greg2557 09-21-05 16
 Amy flygirl 09-21-05 18
 Stephanie dabo 09-21-05 19
   Vote Change: Lydia dabo 09-22-05 34
 Amy kircon 09-22-05 20
 Blake tribephyl 09-22-05 21
 Amy KObrien_fan 09-22-05 22
 Amy jackandjill 09-22-05 23
 Amy chick 09-22-05 24
 Amy FesterFan1 09-22-05 25
 Amy volsfan 09-22-05 26
 Amy Corvis 09-22-05 27
 Amy survivorscott 09-22-05 28
 Amy KeithFan 09-22-05 29
 Amy Krautboy 09-22-05 30
 Lydia Brownroach 09-22-05 31
 Amy PenMike 09-22-05 32
 Stehpenie twinsmomm 09-22-05 33
 amy Lisat723 09-22-05 35
 Amy VerucaSalt 09-22-05 36
 Amy DearAbby 09-22-05 37
 Blake blacknwhitedog 09-22-05 38
 Amy Colbys_Chick 09-22-05 39
   Vote Change - Lydia Colbys_Chick 09-22-05 40
       Blake Lisa0116 09-22-05 41
 Amy Max Headroom 09-22-05 42
 Amy Max Headroom 09-22-05 43
 amy justwrong 09-22-05 44
 Amy King Will 09-22-05 45
 Lydia.. MDSkinner 09-22-05 46
 HEY BLAKE... Round Robin 09-22-05 47
 Amy emydi 09-22-05 48
 Barf Blake Estee 09-22-05 49
 Amy strid333 09-22-05 50
 BLAKE (BLECH) flipxcyd 09-22-05 51

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 03:22 PM (EST)
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1. "Amy"
Yaxha wins the RC, maybe, as Amy sits out. Blake is all over the preview vidcaps leading the average viewer to believe that he'll be the next mercy boot. Blake is left to suffer another three days when Nakum wins IC. Jamie's work ethic is flushed out by Steph but he's too strong to lose now. Ditto for Gary...he may have choked in the challenges but he's not going anywhere, he's just too strong.....Steph really influences the tribe to stick together and get rid of the weakest players....that leaves Lydia and Amy. Lydia brownnosed Steph when she arrived, and perhaps doesn't do too badly in the challenges. Ami on the other hand is rubbing the tribe the wrong way, and she's weak....she's toast.

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 04:08 PM (EST)
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2. "Amy"
KOb has convinced me that Amy is the most plausible boot candidate via her SOTS. I see no reason to go against the reasoning for her boot there.
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 04:41 PM (EST)
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3. "Amy"
Amy, It's too bad you won't be around long enough for us all to enjoy that Rawb-fadda accent of yours!
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redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 04:46 PM (EST)
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4. "Amy"
To much misdirection by EPM toward Blake to suit me.Going with the flow and the reasoning of KOB Fan. I really enjoy having a season without a boot list.
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travelingbetty 296 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 04:53 PM (EST)
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5. "Amy"
seems logical
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body 36 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 05:13 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Amy"
based on all the info i`ve read i`d say it`s amy in week 2.
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 05:13 PM (EST)
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7. "Gary"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 03:17 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 01:08 PM (EST)

Just to play devil's advocate for now. Clearly, Amy is a good option for the boot. I do agree that Nakum wins IC.

However,...

CORVIS CONFESSIONAL ANALYSIS

This held up remarkably well last season. In danger on Yaxha:
-Steph (tip to TDT she does well),
-Jamie (per misdirection 3 might well stay, opening credit pic in challenge which does not seem to match ep1 or ep2 challenges),
-Brian (needs to stay longer for the "villain edit" to pay off),
-Gary - I think we can't rule Gary out as easily as the previous three, which would make him the prime boot candidate according to confessional analysis

GARY vs DANNI STORYLINE

One of the key arguments for Gary being safe seems to be that Danni has the NFL scoop on Gary and at some point should out Gary. I don't think this is going to happen based on one of Jim's post interviews.

Jim on Danni: "Let’s see… Danni... Danni’s insight was, and it didn’t really turn out to be much of an influence on our tribe, but Danni came up with Hogeboom. We’d just started the game, and she said, “You know that guy? I’ve seen that guy before, he’s an NFL quarterback from back in the 80’s” or whatever. She said, “Gary Hoge—“and I said “Gary Hogeboom?” and she said “It’s Gary Hogeboom!” And of course, he lied to his tribe though the entire thing. So that was Danni’s thing, she’s a sportscaster in Kansas City."

I don't think Gary and Danni ever meet on the same tribe, nor do I think that any Nakum with Danni's knowledge will confront Gary, because Gary will no longer be there.

GARY IN A SOLO "HUNTER-LIKE" PROMO

There is this promo completely dedicated to Gary. Corvis noted (at his site ) that this is much like Hunter's promo before Hunter got kicked off. Why hype the NFL QB theme before ep2? Because it's the last opportunity?

GARY STAYS BECAUSE OF STRENGTH

The other common argument for Gary to stay is - Yaxha would be dumb to boot strength. It certainly would not be smart. However, castaways rarely exhibit rational voting behavior. This also assumes Steph learns from prior mistakes. VS often reminds us that people are who they are. They can't change themselves, they also have trouble learning from their own mistakes. At the very least, the "won't vote off strength" argument is not cast in stone.

Just thought I'd get some Gary arguments in this thread. Hope to see more counter points in the next Amy votes, and I might change my mind tomorrow.

forehead

ETA VS Always good to see you!

Yes, editing... I know noone who has a better grasp on the editing than you.

Two (small) observations/questions:
1. Gary had the compass in ep1, and this had to be shown. Rafe's comment on "Gary being a leader and leaders always get voted off" is just too beautiful for Survivor to edit out. It also establishes Rafe as someone who understands the game. So, once we discount for this, how does that affect Gary's editing?

2. Gary put himself in "father role" distinguishing himself from the younger ones - including Steph. It'll be interesting to see whether Gary will play a role similar to Steph (we're all equal tribe members) vs a role that puts him in a position different from Steph (the father role). And, how does Steph respond?

Sure is nice to not know the bootee before the show airs.

ETA2: sink or swim yes? swim please! I foresee more sinking than swimming though

(blushes) I have read the editing thread (the most interesting thread around), but seem to suffer from recall abilities... (Should have more time for the remainder of the season though.)

I guess I can see the points you raise come to fruition in a single ep2, while you expect them to play out over multiple ep's. Of course, this is why some sinking might be in order for forehead...

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JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 05:15 PM (EST)
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8. "Amy"
Okay, fine, you convinced me.
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RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 05:31 PM (EST)
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9. "Amy..."
Or Gary... (Forehead has me thinking!)
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MJewel 1951 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 06:12 PM (EST)
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10. "Amy"
Going with the theory that Steph will try to get rid of the weakest as she knows what happened last time on her tribe.
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littletown 85 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 06:35 PM (EST)
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11. "Gary"
My first choice was Blake, then Amy, but my gut is telling me it will be Gary.
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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 06:42 PM (EST)
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12. "Blake"
Just on first impressions.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 07:17 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
Seems the safe bet.
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 09:55 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!"
Um... WHO seems like the safe bet?
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 08:31 PM (EST)
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14. "Blake"
buuueeetchh!!!!!
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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 08:41 PM (EST)
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15. "AMY"
THough, I'll probably have to eat my words...

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greg2557 166 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 09:33 PM (EST)
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16. "Amy"
going with KO on this one
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flygirl 159 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 10:53 PM (EST)
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18. "Amy"
Seems like the logical boot but....."One Man Down" suggests something else - unless they are refering to Blake and his physical condition?
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-05, 11:30 PM (EST)
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19. "Stephanie"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 00:14 AM (EST)

Going out on a limb here. We've had Blake or perhaps Gary boots handed to us (shoved at us) this week; but Blake's collapse seems most likely a Day 4 event and he is seen sucking it up for the challenges, and all the talk about Gary's denial of his real ID makes me think he lasts a bit longer as well (loathe though I am to buy into Jiffy-generated spoilers). Which leaves us with politics. Steph is shown at odds with Gary about sourcing ant for protein; even though she was basically the established tribe leader at the outset, Gary has emerged as the more leadership-type member of the tribe. She's also a very popular player with the viewing audience from the previous season: how many of these wannabe attention ho's really want Miss Congeniality around hogging the spotlight? Not many I think.

Alternate: Lydia

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 12:26 PM (EST)
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34. "Vote Change: Lydia"
see Brownroach's post.
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kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 04:57 AM (EST)
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20. "Amy"
If Steph is a swing vote she will keep Gary
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 06:06 AM (EST)
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21. "Blake"
tribephyl, smokedog and kingfish are moving to a private island and claimimg the next bootee as ... a very obvious BLAKE.

You know, the one who can't breathe and is about to die.

How much more convincing do you need???

Man Down!!!!

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 07:06 AM (EST)
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22. "Amy"
Last season is still fresh in my mind. The episode title for Palau at this point in time was "Love is in the air, rats are everywhere" and Ashlee was a very well hidden boot. She was mentioned in the SeeBS misdirection "Tribemates notice one survivors reclusive behavior at a feast", but other than that the week long chatter was all about whether they would boot BJ or Jeff. Corvis even made the comment "Figuring out a week 2 boot should never be this hard"

Flash forward to this season and we have deja vu all over again.

We have at least 5 plausible boot candidates. I am sure beyond a doubt that the episode title "Man Down" is referring to Blake and the eye mail confirms that. But I also believe that is total misdirection, if you read the SOTS I outline what looks very convincingly a Nakum IC win and Blake is looking mighty strong out in front pulling. That means Blake can't be the boot.

Others like Jamie and Lydia I think will have just enough strength to eke this TC out so I am not going to go into all kinds of detail.

It comes down to Gary and Amy. Both of these players were splashed all over the pregame promos, yet Gary's story continued last week and he seems to be heavily focused on in this episode. With Jim's exit comments that apparantly "Gary lied about his identity to his tribe the entire time." Now is 6 days long enough to be an entire time? I suppose so, but my gut says his story is not finished yet and won't be wrapped up this week. Gary can contribute leadership, strength, smarts, and charisma to a tribe that Rafe says "Has that Yaxha spirit".

Amy was my gut first boot from the very beginning but since her tribe did not go to TC last episode, this will be the first chance to boot her. I don't see her as someone overly friendly and able to understand or get along with her other tribemates, she lacks the social part of this game. She sits out a challenge. She had trouble keeping up in the first hike. She doesn't fit in. She isn't social. MB hasn't needed to invest alot of time in her story because who cares, she has no real character.

I still have reservations, because I do think Forehead makes a good argument for a Gary boot this week. But between my gut, and knowing that the tribe should at least try to keep their strength up, I think this boot is all AMY.

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jackandjill 204 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 08:43 AM (EST)
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23. "Amy"
baaaa! baaaa!
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chick 49 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 09:05 AM (EST)
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24. "Amy"
I think there are too many leaders-types on Yaxha, and they will butt heads. Amy is probably the most anoying, and expendible....
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09-22-05, 09:37 AM (EST)
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25. "Amy"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 09:38 AM (EST)

Logic seems to indicate that it's either Amy or Gary here. I was leaning toward Amy, based on KO's arguments. E3's title pushes it over the top, as I'm convinced it refers to Gary. Therefore, I think he's safe this week (but probably just this week), and Amy's toast.

Fester

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09-22-05, 09:48 AM (EST)
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26. "Amy"
I'm drinking the Kool-Aid!
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 10:01 AM (EST)
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27. "Amy"
forehead and KObrien_fan each did a great job making a case for the two boot possibilities this week. I am having a heckuva time deciding who I think it'll be. In the end, I am going with Amy because I don't think Gary's story is done yet. Of course, I like Gary and don't want to see him booted so that might be coloring my opinion this week.

And it's kind of ironic that two of forehead's arguments for a Gary boot is stuff I said.

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survivorscott 2191 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 10:29 AM (EST)
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28. "Amy"
In a complete shocker

Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger

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KeithFan 7422 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 11:33 AM (EST)
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29. "Amy"
I just don't see Gary's story being finished tonight.

Steph's confessional count is misleading due to her compare/contrast role.

Blake is just too obvious.

Make room on the bandwagon!

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09-22-05, 11:34 AM (EST)
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30. "Amy"
KO did an excellent job of outlining the logic that leads to Amy's boot this week.

The editing last week layed the ground work for this week's boot...Stephenie identified Lydia and Amy as the "weak links" and voiced her opinion that the "weak link" must go. Steph has taken on the leadership role, and her tribe will most likely follow her lead at TC.

Krautboy

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 11:35 AM (EST)
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31. "Lydia"
The cap of Judd in the opening credits and the excellent spoilage by the peeps here has convinced me that Nakum is going to win the IC and therefore Blake is indeed a red herring for this week.

KO made a good case for Amy, and she might leave this week, but I am bucking the trend and picking Lydia:

1) She was mentioned twice by Stephenie as being one of the two weakest on the tribe (Amy was the other). Given Stephenie’s ultra-positive edit thus far, I think that Stephenie’s opinions are going to carry weight with the tribe, for the time being anyway. Stephenie will not want to boot strong people. She may like Lydia, but I don’t think she’d have trouble voting her off.

2) Not only Stephenie thinks she is weak, Lydia was consistently described by Probst as someone he didn’t think would be able to hack it. And he hinted that her fishmonger profession wouldn't really help her.

From the 9/13 media conference: “ Lydia is a charming woman with quite a history. I don't know how much will come out on the show. Truly a survivor in her own life.” But not a survivor on Survivor? Maybe not much of her story will come out because she leaves real early?

By contrast he compares Amy to Twila and says she’s tough.

Probst also mentioned that Lydia is weak in the challenges. I think a weak person who participates in both challenges is more likely to be targeted than a person who sits out one challenge and therefore doesn’t expose his/her weakness in competition as much.

3) The cap of Lydia running during the reward challenge would render her unsafe under OFG-theory.

Another thing which may or not be a consideration -- Lydia made no secret of the fact that she loves Stephenie. If there is any anti-Stephenie sentiment beginning to bubble up at Yaxha, a potential minion of Steph is a good person to get rid of.

My alternate pick is Jamie -- Stephenie said she doesn't think his head is into it, and we know how she feels about people like that (Janu). And he's most likely the one whose work ethic is questioned.

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PenMike 95 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 11:40 AM (EST)
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32. "Amy"
Because I believe Yaxha goes to TC, and she is the most useless of their tribe........
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09-22-05, 11:45 AM (EST)
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33. "Stehpenie"
Gotta go with Stephenie. I know I'm in the minority here as most of America loves Stephenie but I don't think she or Bobby Jon deserved a second chance. They could have played again in the next Survivor All Stars. If her tribe had any sense, they'd get rid of this extreme threat from the get-go. Bracing myself for a lot of backlash for this!!!!
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09-22-05, 12:28 PM (EST)
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35. "amy"
Amy
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09-22-05, 12:43 PM (EST)
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36. "Amy"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 01:43 PM (EST)

I often forget to vote here since I am usually looking at the long term edit rather than the short term but when one ventures into SOTS................

I am impressed by the logic expressed here But I am such a doormat for editing that logic escapes me (as does the editing most times ).

Amy was already on my short list of early exits with the pre-season discussion and which essentially did not change after the first episode.

I am simply choosing Amy over a Nakum member since the consensus is that Stephenie's tribe loses this upcoming challenge (Blake is still someone who I feel does not have a lengthy edit from his tribe if Nakum should lose)

Like my friend forehead (nice to see you again ) says, Stephenie is pivotal (I think) in her tribe's dynamics. Like forehead ALSO says, people essentially do not change. I am selecting Amy as Gary's "edit" suggests some longevity despite Stephenie's aversion to "leaders".

Since I do agree that people do not change, I am somewhat of the mindset (as discussed previously in the editing thread) that Stephenie may have been more put out last season more by Jolanda's loudness in her quest to lead and Amy's shrill monkey may be very symbolic. Therefore, Stephenie is still who she is.

I tend to think that if someone is barely seen in the first episode it does not necessarily bode well and an obligatory showing of that person is often shown their boot episode. Amy may very well be seen in this episode and enough where the audience sees why he/she says goodbye (good example of this is Kel) Face time can be tricky either way.

I see some Lydia and Jamie votes as well which are extremely good choices (though I sense something deeper with Jamie) but Lydia, though weak, seems non abrasive and I go back to Stephenie and her thought process.

Editing is such a mind wracking ordeal

ETA: forehad sink or swim yes?
Two (small) observations/questions:

You did not read the editing thread - gasp!!

My gander with Rafe's comments is twofold

Irony - Despite Gary's contention to "lay low" - apparently not working

Set up a potential storyline of A potential leader conflict OR to contradict his confessional that in this Survivor, a leader is NECESSARY.

Gary's discussion about the father role was another situation that was left in since in my opinion that is obvious; he is older, we didn't need to hear it but we did. It remains unclear at this point exactly Stephenie's "take" on it but this may correlate with his leadership role as well and a potential upcoming conflict.

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09-22-05, 12:56 PM (EST)
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37. "Amy"
Sure, I'll go along!
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09-22-05, 01:12 PM (EST)
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38. "Blake"
I'm going with the obvious
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09-22-05, 01:16 PM (EST)
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39. "Amy"
She's gone
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09-22-05, 01:25 PM (EST)
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40. "Vote Change - Lydia"
Brownroach makes a great case! Changed my mind!!
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09-22-05, 01:39 PM (EST)
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41. "Blake"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 04:11 PM (EST)

I don't know for sure, but I want to play, too. I keep thinking Nakum will lose (I know-I am in the minority) and I think they will vote off Blake.

OOPS!!! Sorry-I curved the line of responses. I am NOT retarded-really!!! Maybe just a little hyper and so engrossed in reading the responses, that I screwed up!!! Sorry!!!

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09-22-05, 01:41 PM (EST)
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42. "Amy"
Without Snewser, et al, no pick is a lock, but this one looks solid.
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09-22-05, 01:47 PM (EST)
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43. "Amy"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-05 AT 01:49 PM (EST)

Sorry for duplicate vote, had technical problems!

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justwrong 63 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-05, 02:20 PM (EST)
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44. "amy"
reward: fishing gear goes to Yaxha
immunity: judd beats gary in the tie breaker
voted off: amy goes home 8-1
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09-22-05, 02:48 PM (EST)
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45. "Amy"
Endurance is the key for these early boots in this "Lets see if we can kill one of them on TV" year- putting Amy, Lydia, BobbyJon, and to a lesser extent the other guys on Nakum at risk.

I will go further to say this will put Nakum at the disadvantage by the end of the first act (switch/twist time) with regard to pure strength, even though Yaxha loses both Amy and Lydia.

King Will

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09-22-05, 03:29 PM (EST)
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46. "Lydia.."
As good as KOBFans arguments are for Amy, I think I like Brownroaches better for Lydia. It is fairly unusual that a person taht sits out is voted out because they are weak, unless they are hurt in some way or another and that is the reason for them sitting out. Consequently, I think it is far more likely that Lydia will be the one who "shows" weakness in teh challenge, and is voted out. Certainly could be wrong, but I think Amy will end up being lucky that she was able to sit out of the challenge this week.
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09-22-05, 05:52 PM (EST)
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47. "HEY BLAKE..."
...it's time for you to go!
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09-22-05, 06:15 PM (EST)
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48. "Amy"
my namesake...ugh..

Hey I picked her to go after I analyzed just the editing of Ep. 1!! I changed by PTTE list last Saturday! Woohoo.. VS's theories do work!!

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09-22-05, 07:29 PM (EST)
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49. "Barf Blake"
It's a little too obvious, but that's the same problem Nakum's having with him. The illness is a little too obvious. And loud. Really, really loud.
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09-22-05, 07:36 PM (EST)
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50. "Amy"
But I wouldn't be surprised if I were wrong.
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09-22-05, 07:39 PM (EST)
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51. "BLAKE (BLECH)"
Let's see, if I can be wrong 2 weeks in a row! Blake's ralph attack shows him weak. I sense a female alliance here - gawd, I hope not!
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