Previously on Survivor Guatemala- an 11 mile grueling hike was the RC which Nakum won and that gave them flint and the better of the two camp sites. Sickness and dehydration hampered Nakum and in the IC a blown bicep muscle sealed the fate of the retired fire captain, Jim Lynch was the first to have his torch snuffed. To get a read on what his thoughts were, check out this thread brought to us by BrownRoach documenting Jim's interview with Reality News Online].
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This week we start off with the Episode title Man Down, thanks to FlowerPower bringing the info to us. Most of the speculation revolves around Blake still being hurt.
This theme is further discussed in the SeeBS Misdirection thread, brought to us courtesy of Tribephyl.
1. One Survivor is appalled when a nest of ants are served up for dinner in a tribe desperate for protein.
The main concensus is that this refers to Stephenie as shown in the previews to be turning up her nose at the prospect of eating the ants. Don't worry Steph, just open your mouth and the ants will go marching one by one...
2. Lacking any sympathy for ailing tribemates, one Survivor starts complaining about the weak ones being lazy and getting pampered.
There are 2 general opinions on who this is referring to. First, many think it could be Brandon as he is shown evily eyeing his fallen tribemate. Others believe it is Judd because of a clip of one of his confessionals where he is complaining of this very thing. Personally, I think it is Judd our jolly doorman from NYC.
3. Leading into the second Tribal Council, one Survivor fights back when their work ethic is questioned by tribemates.
Now this one is interesting. As our lovely Bebo points out, the week 1 and 2 boots have been usually been cut and dried, and that if the bootee isn't splashed all over the previews or highlighted in the previous episode, at the very least they will get one of the misdirection quotes.
So which of our Usual Suspects is this referring to? I guess it depends on which tribe you think is going to tribal council this week. Some say it is Jamie due to comments Steph made about him being lazy. Others speculate that it could be snot rocket scientist Bobby John. Several names are bantied about in fact, with no hard source spoiler to go by, there are at least 4-5 people this could fit.
Let's see if we can narrow it down a little more, we did after all get the Week 1 boot, didn't we? Time to hit those vid-caps!
Reward Challenge
Since we found caps of the Immunity Idol sitting on a podium during the mud challenge (see analysis below), that leaves the Spider Web as the RC. Here is what is involved. Looks like Amy is going to sit this one out for Yaxha, even though some speculate that Lydia because of her stature would be weaker.
The challenge appears to start off with one person from each tribe running down their marked lane, climbing a ramp, jumping off and then run over to the spider web where they will climb to retrieve a bag of the same color as their tribe. Once they get the bag back to the start, the next person can then take off in true Survivor relay fashion.
These caps show the progression:
Each contestant wants to stay out of the water (perhaps stocked with hungry crocs?) and in the Web Promo thread that Volsfan started, you can see some more caps that do show Gary falling kersplash, and several holding on for dear life.
So who wins this one? Well, no real clear indication based on the vid-caps so we'll have to use process of elimination and try to figure this out the old fashioned way. Biancaxx points out this picture:
Which shows 4-5 blobs of dark that really don't show much other than it may indicate a tribe is out fishing and not paddling to a challenge or TC. So is the reward some fishing gear?
I think that the Yaxha tribe with Amy sitting this one out has a slight advantage and the shots of Gary falling into the water are misdirection. You have big Judd on Nakum who will most likely not be good at this one because of his size, and if Blake is still hurting, I'm going to say that it looks like the fishmonger Lydia (who is wearing a quite determined yet confident look on her face) might have some fish to fillet relatively soon.
Immunity Challenge
The mudpit is the scene for what looks to be another very physical challenge where the Survivors are guaranteed to get down and dirty! There is alot of debate about what exactly will take place, but I'll try to map it out using some of the key vid-caps that can also be found in the Preview Vidcaps thread by FlowerPower.
First, we can see that Brianna is the one that sits out for Yaxha. The challenge looks to be a combination of a tug-of-war with maybe a touch of capture the flag.
The field layout:
In part 1 of this challenge it appears that the two tribes try to pull toward their own endzones which also keeps the other tribe from getting to theirs. Do they only need to go past a certain yard/foot marker? Do they have to dig up and find colored tribe flags? These are things that have been discussed and nothing is definitive.
We do know that at some point in this tribal game, Danni has a go with Brian who appears to be going after Margaret.
We can also see Nakum getting closer and closer to their endzone:
We see that Blake in the orange/red shorts is out in front and looking strong, and that powerful scream of BJ as he nears the 45 marker, we have seen that look on his face before.
But we also know that at some point it comes down to two people, Gary vs Judd. Is this the result of a tie breaker, or is this because one of the goals was to unclip the other tribes players?
One theory is that Gary realizes that Judd is closing in on grabbing the clean rope and pulling himself to victory and so he abandons trying to get to his own endzone in order to go tackle Judd and stop him. Only one problem, Gary was a QB and not a safety, him tackling Judd is about as effective as him trying to tackle the likes of Leon Lett. We can see in the caps that Judd keeps on dragging Gary despite his attempts.
PMSPML puts up a good counter argument in the vid-cap thread, she views it as just the opposite, that Gary is the one that walks away the hero of the game.
But other evidence (pointed out by FP) to the contrary, in the opening credits we have a muddy and rejoicing photo of the Juddster:
And how many times have we seen this defeated look on Steph's face?
That picture of Yaxha looking dejected shows everyone except Brianna, Lydia, and Gary. Well Brianna is the one sitting out, Gary is wrapped around Judd, so where is Lydia? Lydia oh Lydia, say have you seen Lydia, Lydia the tattooed lady...OK, if you look close you can see her hair projecting in fron of Rafe's chest. It looks like a good bet to say that Nakum will win Immunity.
The Boot
So who is the boot if Nakum goes to TC? There has been a large focus on Blake, is it solely misdirection? I agree with those who say that it is. That leaves us with 4 suspects from Yaxha.
I think we can rule out Gary, even though he is highlighted throughout the promos and had an amazing amount of pregame face time as well. He needs to stick around a little longer to one day have a show down with Danni.
Lydia will prove herself in the two challenges to be quite capable of holding her own, and who knows, if the RC was fishing gear, maybe she makes a name for herself there as well.
Jamie has been dubbed as lazy by Steph in one of her confessionals that can be seen on CBS insider. But I think most agree that he is too strong and it would be foolish with the physical nature of this season to boot anybody but your weakest player.
That leaves a big red laser scope on the forehead of our resident cop Amy who was dubbed as a weak link during the hike last week. She sits out the RC in this episode and that shows again that she is weak. "Man Down" is certainly a police term, and Amy could fit the description of the Survivor in part 3 of the SeeBS misdirection too.
But what does the eye-mail say?
It highlights both Blake and Yaxha, and since most of the misdirection is about Blake and his injuries, he sure looks to be doing well in the IC.
Recap
RC: Spider-Web, advantage: Yaxha
IC: Mud Tug-of-War, advantage: Nakum
Boot: Amy
Long Term Spoilers
Don't forget to check out some of the most important threads, those that look at the big picture and try to forecast what will be seen in the near and distant future. As you know, Survivor is all about the editing, and one thread spending time discussing that is Signs of Survival which is a fascinating astrology thread started by Georgianna. Even if you don't believe in astrology, this is a must read. It shows some interesting patterns from history and will try to predict the future.
A mainstay on this board is the thread from Veruca Salt, The Players, The Game, The Editing. Already some great discussion underway about the longevity of players based on the edit they have received.
BuckeyeGirl started another important long term thread on Key Quotes. One interesting quote from Margaret: The big strong guys are all down, and the girls are holding up so well! has Pepe LePew speculating that a woman is destined to win this season. Time will tell.
Is Brian going to last long emough to be made out to be a villian? That thread by BrownRoach discusses that very possibility.
FP brings us a possible news article spoiler where it says that Judd has a considerable weight loss. There is much discussion on whether the weight loss is realistic for a big guy of 240 lbs, but in the Guatemala climate and conditions, many think that it is plausible.
Forehead started a thread on TC Seating and how in the past it has been wise to pay attention to who sits near whom. Miscreation gave us the information of Jeff Probst's radio interview which discusses the Danni recognizing Gary as an NFL QB. Colby's Chick reminds us through Ethan's blog that first impressions can be lasting impressions. And in case you don't know, our next episode title is oddly a quote from The Princess Diary, which you can discuss here.
SOTS is provided by SurvivorBlows.com as a service to our readers. The purpose of this post is to consolidate the threads in the Spoiler Forum pertaining to this week's episode. Feel free to reply to this post if you feel that a theory you support was not adequately represented in this message. Please use this thread for unified discussion of all topics as we approach the next episode.
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I agree, you're headed in the right direction with your conclusions, but it would always be GREAT to be blind-sided as well.
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DOWN WITH JERRI!!!!
