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finner 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 02-02-01, 03:08 AM (EST) "Jerri's goin down" At the end of Survivor last year, most of the correct analysis came from logic rather than proof or fact. Most of us who chose Rich to win it all, based our picks on likely scenarios and who each person would like to enter the final tribal council with. With all the red herrings that MB planted it became very difficult to determine what was a spoiler and what wasn't. With that said, I beleive that logical analysis is just as important to this board as true spoiler information is. Using the first four theory, it is easy to eliminate Kimmi and Nick. This is assuming that this theory isn't a plant. Remember that the final four picture in the first survivor lasted for two TC's before it was shot to hell. The same thing could be going on here. MB loves to play this game, and he basically gave us Deb and Kel for free. Everybody seems to be putting on the blinders now and focusing on Kimmi and Nick. I would not be surprised at all if neither of these two get voted off next week.(whoops, a double negative). The second part of my analysis is based on Jerri. Alot of people think she is playing a great game and I strongly disagree. I think she is drawing way to much attention to herself to early in the game. People are starting to fear her, which is evident in the 7-1 landslide against Kel. With the previews from next week it looks like she is about to start working on Colby. All it takes is for one of the lambs to make a stance against the she-wolf, and the rest of the lambs are sure to follow. I know this is speculation, but I don't think Jerri will make it to the merge. finner   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jerri's goin down Cherberrie 02-02-01 1    RE: Jerri's goin down castaway 02-02-01 2  RE: Jerri's goin down Minstrel 02-02-01 3    RE: Jerri's goin down SurvivorBlows 02-02-01 4    RE: Jerri's goin down Elisabeth Rules 02-02-01 5        RE: Jerri's goin down Kokoro 02-02-01 6            RE: Jerri's goin down Irisheyes 02-02-01 8        RE: Jerri's goin down viget 02-02-01 7  RE: Jerri's goin down HippyDingo 02-02-01 9    RE: Jerri's goin down butterfly 02-03-01 11  RE: Jerri's goin down butterfly 02-03-01 10

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Cherberrie 1285 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 02-02-01, 09:09 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Jerri's goin down" >All it takes is for one of the lambs >to make a stance against the she-wolf, and the rest >of the lambs are sure to follow. I agree...my lambchop pick is Amber (as I mentioned in a prior Basher post).   Top

castaway 168 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 02-02-01, 09:42 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Jerri's goin down" So who are the weak links that could possibly be up for 'banishment' next week? Keith seems a sure bet. We need Conspiracy Jim to find more pics. And it's good to see so many of the old-timers back again too, like Ayatollah. Looks like they are gonna have their work cut out for them this time...   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 02-02-01, 09:55 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Jerri's goin down" All good points here! A few observations of mine. 1. 7-1 (Kel) is also a hidden ploy not to tip your hand. Maralyn changed her mind but why? She posed the ethics of going through Kel's bag, but when she asked Jerri to apologize, Jerri said "no" and Maralyn said "OK!" So, Maralyn joined the slaughter so as to remain as non-threatening as possible. 2. I predict many more such landslide TC's. The alliances that are forming, though not actually proclaimed as such, are somewhat independent of the fact the TC's are voting off obvious outsiders. If you withdraw from the group you are history. If you are too bossy you are history. And, I don't think Kel ever got confirmation that Tina and Maralyn were supporting him. It was all one sided on his part! Pretty stupid. 3. Having said this, I see Keith in real trouble! Tina is second for Ogakor. Keith's inability to cook satisfactorily and Tina blowing two eating chances are prime. In Kucha, Mike is on the block. The only thing that may save him is he can catch fish! No one has done that before. Aka Rich, this goes a long way! Jeff is probably second in line. His "arrogance" does seem to be rubbing people the wrong way. 4. Alliances? Well one thing appears consistent. There is a lot of manipulation going on. Jerri has taken the lead and seems to have answers to anything that comes up. Her "tricks" set Kel up real good and now it seems E3 may be an attempt to flush Colby out one way or another. She already seemingly has Mitch under her spell since he bought the Kel thing "hook, line, and sinker;" and Tina should be grateful she's still in it. But, Maralyn doesn't like Jerri at all and I look for a #1 vs #2 show down within the next couple of episodes. My guess is Maralyn will take Jerri down. Keith (if he stays alive), Maralyn, Amber, and Tina all have reason to align to take Jerri out. But Jerri has a counter part inside Kucha. Kimmi was the focal point and continues to be overtly strong as she downs the worm and ceremoniously takes the immunity idol for her team. Can you say, "U - S - A!?" I felt everyone was cheering as if they had won a Super Bowl or something. But the real Jerri in Kucha is Alicia. Cold, conniving, calculated, and definitely a schemer. She has it in for Mike for sure. Her hand in Debb's departure was smooth! She had Jeff wrapped around her finger. Cool, calm, and collected! 5. Those I see still "invisible?" Well Nick and Elizabeth in Kucha and Amber in Ogakor. However all three did extremely well in the eating challenge. OK, one of the women lucked out with the apple. Yes, Jerri is going down, but not without an alliance. It is there for the forming. The problem is, who would cook? Ogakor has a big dilemna on their hands! Keith obviously learned that flour and water makes dough and likely will feature that on an upcoming segment of his cooking show. I will also say that S1 played out in a similiar manner in that the alliance formed at this time.   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-02-01, 10:07 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Jerri's goin down" ...yes, that whole Flour + Water = Dough is a tough nut to crack -- I can't believe someone put it together in only 4 days (I mean who the hell eats rice when you can eat bread? ...or um, at like bread-like stuff -- I'm assuming the producers still didn't also throw in some yeast or whatever too) Though I'm concerned this group of castaways is getting both rcie AND FLOUR, at this rate, Survivor IV will be 42 days in a McDonald's... And how hard exactly is it to cook rice -- come on, both these tribes are making Rudy et al look like world chefs. "3. Having said this, I see Keith in real trouble! Tina is second for Ogakor. Keith's inability to cook satisfactorily and Tina blowing two eating chances are prime. In Kucha, Mike is on the block. The only thing that may save him is he can catch fish! No one has done that before. Aka Rich, this goes a long way!" ...this I also don't get. Unlike S1, "catching fish" here doesn't involve swimming underwater with a spear or anything, all you have to do it put a grasshopper on a hook and put the hook in the water. Has anyone else EVEN tried to go fishing with Mike and learn maybe some special spot that he's found that seems to have lots of fish?? ...other than the time of day he's fishing and where he's fishing, Mike shouldn't have much of an advantage here -- unlike Rich, Mike's fishing is all about location and time of day and doesn't appear to have anything to do with skill. Mike sits in a boat and watches the line. I think someone else should be able to pick that up...   Top

Elisabeth Rules 39 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 02-02-01, 11:47 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Jerri's goin down" OK, first off, jerri is staying at least another week. why? go to the cbs survivor site and watch the preview for next week. the water torture event is the reward challenge (supposedly won by ogakor) and the rope race challenge is obviously the immunity challenge. from the video, which i watched a few times, it looks pretty obvious that kucha is far behind ogakor. they will most likely lose it and be forced to vote a kucha member out. now which kucha member? not mike. why? too obvious. they NEVER set up in the previews who is going to be voted off. they make mike look like the bad guy in these previews so it's just way to obvious. not gonna happen. so who else? not rodger. and why do i say this? look at the video. he's seen as falling down during the rope challenge probably helping to lose it for his team. also WAY too obvious. if he was going to be voted out, then they wouldn't be showing us in the previews that he is letting his team down. they'd save it for a surprise. just as they made it seem in the preview as if kimmi was going to be voted off this week (though we already knew better from the water torture pics). so who will be voted out?? not too sure on that one. i'd really like jeff to go but i doubt he will. most likely kimmi or nick. supposedly they both go early, aka "first 4 theory" so it could be either one. i hesitate to choose between the 2. guess we'll have to wait and see who the target is in the next episode. unless any new evidence comes to light between now and then.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 02-02-01, 05:36 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Jerri's goin down" The thing about the First Four theory is that it doesn't come from out of the blue....if comes directly from a world renowned investigative journalist (Peter Lance ;) and I don't think he'd have an untrustworty source or would post unconfirmed information.   Top

Irisheyes 276 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 02-02-01, 06:17 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Jerri's goin down" I think Jerri will go far, at least to the merger. She has her tribe wrapped around her finger. Colby will likely fall over her because of the attention a real Hollywood actress is showing him. Mitch is right there. He bought that beef jerky story right away. She grabs one more, and there is an alliance. ANd I think they may go after someone weak, like Tina, before they go after Keith. At least he is going off and getting wood and stuff.   Top

viget 7 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 02-02-01, 06:15 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Jerri's goin down" Right on the money ER, It seems pretty obvious to me that the rope challenge is the IC (we know the water torture was a previous RC in SI (and at virtually the same time, too) and from what I've seen, all challenges have been "variants" on counterparts from SI), and with Rodger lassoed to the rest of the group, it seems like Kucha is toast. That being said, let's look who's left, Mike, no way he goes since he's the current catch of the week (Red Herring, that is). Jeff, well I doubt it. He's been telling a lot of the story from his own view, and as we saw in SI, those who tell the story live to the end. (eg Rudy, Rich, Sue, Kelly, Colleen) THough in my current iteration of picks, I do have him going right after the merger, but we'll see. Rodger, also too obvious, somehow he manages to screw up a lot of challenges a la Sonja, but everybody likes him. Alicia also seems to be a storyteller, so she's safe for now. That leaves Kimmi, Nick, and Liz. Liz hasn't been developed at all, nor has nick. I suppose they could spend a lot of E3 developing one of those two, but I kind of doubt it. We already know people hate Kimmi (Jeff for sure), and she nearly cost her tribe immunity for a *willful* act (not a mistake like Rodger might). She's a liability. Time to dump her. Yes, she's been a storyteller of sorts, but so was Stacey early, and they dumped her E3. Plus it fits with the first 4 theory. Personally, I'd put a 85% chance on Kimmi, and 15% on Nick right now. I think first 4 is right until proven otherwise, so those are the only 2 I see in trouble.   Top

HippyDingo 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 02-02-01, 10:53 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Jerri's goin down" Ok, first off let me say I'm new here to this site, don't even ask where I've been I'm sure you can guess. So, I'd like to say Hi!!! Jerri is definately going, when is the question. I've heard that Kelly "The Rat" Wigglesworth met Jerri "Scerri" Manthey and Kelly quoted as saying she is a "loser". I think Jerri is so obvious in her manipulative ways and I don't think Colby will buy it either, in fact, I think he will use it to his advantage. An alliance to form to get her off, Keith (she's a total bitch to him), Maralyn and Colby (both spoke about Jerri and her ways)and I think Amber and Tina can easily be brought voer. Mitchell forget him....he'll stay with Jerri. I think he's just one of those kind of guys that's a total fool when it comes to beautiful women. I also think that Keith at some point will redeem himself in the cooking area. If someone can just get them some food, I think he just might wip up something nice plus I heard he spent alot of money on a charity dinner from his winnings for like 300+ kids, must have gone pretty far and made some "dough" but then again I think he already has money. Kimmi definately the next to go on Kucha I think (remember Stacey). Nick most likely next after Kimmi, Nick reminds me of Sean in the sense of he being a Harvard law student and Sean being a Neurologist both seem kinda stupid. Alicia is definatlely cool calm and collectively, someone to watch out for. Rodger is hard for me, everyone seems to like him but he does mess up alot. Final Four for me,....tough this early but if I have to pick right now, I'm gonna say Keith, Colby, Mad Dawg and Alicia. I could have egg on this face though and I"m sure I"ll change my mind, God only knows how many times.   Top

butterfly 20 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 02-03-01, 07:19 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Jerri's goin down" LOL HippyDingo..i'm new also and would like to say hello.I've been enjoying the site and i'm sure you will also. I unfortunatly have egg on my face already.It seems that these people change day to day..like the wind! I felt i had it fairly narrowed down...then the kicker..Kel was made an ass of and Jerri turned into a coniving> u know what.I wont speculate anymore lol.I think i will sit back and watch closely and hope i will i have a pick soon.   Top

butterfly 20 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 02-03-01, 07:03 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Jerri's goin down" My speculation is the lamb will be Mad Dog.I agree with you on Jerri's position,she moved way too quickly and brought attention and suspicion to herself.Maralyn has already won over the majority of okakor with that.   Top

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