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"How each person can get to the prize"
esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-18-05, 05:23 PM (EST)
 
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"How each person can get to the prize" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-05 AT 09:57 AM (EST)At this point in the game, I think its interesting to figure out what each remaining players logical strategy should be to get to million dollars and see how likely it is that the strategy would be successful. Tom - Seems to have a very close alliance with Ian, Katie, Greg and Jenn that would get him to the final 5. Also has alliance with Katie and Ian to get to the final 3. He also is courting Stephanie as an extra vote if needs it. He has to think that the million dollars is within his reach. Ian - Seems to have a very close alliance with Tom, Katie, Greg and Jenn that would get him to the final 5. Also has alliance with Katie and Tom to get to the final 3. He also thinks that Stephanie as an extra vote if needs it. He has to think that the million dollars is within reach. Katie - Although she seems to be part of the core Koror alliance, she also seems to be close to Jenn. Her best move seems to be to follow Tom's lead to the end and let Tom take the risks. Jenn and Greg - Has close 2 person alliance and part of final 5 core alliance. They may think that if they get to the final 5 that Katie would be with them to vote out Tom and Ian. Stephanie - She is by herself and you have to believe that there is only so far she can go as an outsider. Her best strategy is to watch everyone in Koror and try and play everyone against themselves. She needs to be somewhat like Chris or Rob or Johnny Fairplay. I'm not sur whether she has those skills. She is lucky that people find her less threatening that an alpha male like BJ. Caryn - I have trouble seeing how she gets to the million dollars. She doesn't have the talents to go on an immunity run. She hasn't built the relationships needed to be carried to the end. She can be carried forward a bit like Jan and she can try and sell herself to everyone as the person who will vote for anyone to move ahead like Sandra Janu - I don't know how she gets to the million dollars. She is tired and doesn't seem to want to play anymore. She seems resolved to losing.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-18-05, 07:36 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: How each person can get to the prize" |
Concerning Katie's strategy, I agree that she has to go along with Tom but up to a certain point. The first step (at least after Janu is gone)would be to get rid of Stephenie in a similar move that Tina did to Amber in S2 eventhough Colby wanted to keep Amber. Then swing back towards Tom (saying voting out Stephenie isn't a betrayal to the real Koror)and get rid of Gregg. Only then could she make her move and have the women (Jenn and Caryn) vote Tom out (or Ian if Tom has immunity). She would be better off in F2 going against someone else than Tom or Ian. I only see her winning going against Jenn or Caryn since Janu is not staying no matter what else happens. Tom would have to annoy people a lot more to lose Ian, Gregg, Stephenie Janu and even Caryn's votes to Katie.
Stephenie can't act as Chris did and turn against the leading alliance. She has to hope that she indeed,has friends and that they'll stick with her. If Tom keeps control of the votes, she might wind up in F4 and then hope for an immunity run because no one would want to go against her in F2. It would be hard to call the jury's (all Koror members) vote. Would they go for one of their own who probably got on their nerves in the long run or consider that Stephenie would indeed represent the ultimate survivor if she lasts that long? Her final speech would be easy to make.
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chaipo 11 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-18-05, 07:36 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: How each person can get to the prize" |
I've been thinking about this as well, actually thinking more about alternatives to the current spoilers.We've got the following groups of people:
Tom/Ian, Katie, Greg/Jenn, Stephanie, Caryn, Janu. For Janu:
The most likely scenario, based on what we've seen, is Tom/Ian/Katie/Greg/Jenn sticking together. Tom/Ian is a strong pair, Katie has ties to both Greg/Jenn and Tom/Ian. But shouldn't Greg/Jenn sense that they are in the outside of this alliance? If so, wouldn't this be a good time for Greg/Jenn/(Stephanie|Katie)/Caryn/Janu link up to kick off one of the boys? I realize switches at even numbers tend to not work (too many people who could flip-flop). Following the thought forward, let's say Tom goes (likely high target). Then Greg/Jenn/Ian/Katie could kick out Steph (most likely other "alliance" threat). Left with Greg/Jenn, Ian, Katie, Caryn, Janu. At this point, Janu is likely not a target, and the big guns should take each other out, and Greg/Jenn being a strong pair should be split. Let's say Greg goes, Ian wins immunity. Ian/Katie/Jenn, Janu and Caryn. Essential immunity for Janu. Janu somehow wins a challenge, and Caryn goes. This leaves Ian/Katie/Jenn and Janu. Perhaps this is when Janu becomes the one everyone wants to take to final two, causing others to take each other out. So there you go, a possible (albeit unlikely) Janu win scenario. It requires a lot of scheming to make it work though. A good Stephanie scenario:
Another way it could work, is that Janu is kicked off this week, causing Tom/Ian, Katie, Greg/Jenn, Stephanie, Caryn. Most likely Greg/Jenn/Stephanie/Caryn would have to vote off Tom again to make an advantageous final scenario for Greg/Jenn. Then you are back to Ian, Katie, Greg/Jenn, Stephanie, Caryn. Ian could be on the out, then you have Greg/Jenn/Katie vs. Stephanie/Caryn/Ian. Everyone hates a tie, and Katie would suspect Greg/Jenn of taking each other to the final four, causing a Katie/Stephanie/Caryn/Ian vote for Greg. Ian would be next logically to vote out, due to threat and likeability, so then you have an all-women, Katie/Stephanie/Caryn final. Pretty good chance of Stephanie taking the F3 immunity and winning. Any of these would be cool. I hate to think that this season would wind up another Thailand with people not thinking for themselves out there.
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