EPISODE 1
Day 1 Oct 23
Day 2 Oct 24 - Fire Challenge
Day 3 Oct 25 - Tribal Council - Deb gets voted out 7 to 1.

EPISODE 2
Day 4 or 5 Oct 26 or 27 - Leap of Faith reward challenge for treasure chests containing blankets. Winner get all.

It is now known for sure that the above photo is from episode 2's "Leap of faith" reward challenge. Right after this shot Marilyn jumps. I read an article last night that explained this challenge and stated that Roger can barely swim, though he did jump from the cliff. At that point he began to doggy paddle toward the treasure chest but made no headway until Michael came to help him. This puts Roger as one of the next few to go, especially thrown in with the fact that Michael sees him as a weak link ("Anyone over 50").
Day 5 or 6 Oct 27 or 28 - Mad Cow Buffet for immunity

Day 6 Oct 28 - Tribal Council - Kel is the likely candidate here as proved by the fact that he is not seen in the "Water Torture" pictures from day 7 thrown in with the rumors that someone cheats. I think that we will find out that it is Kel and he will be 2nd to go.

EPISODE 3
Day 7 Oct 29 - Water Torture Reward Challenge
E! reported this as day 7. It must be for reward as it is on day 7 and not 8 or 9.
Day 8 or 9 Oct 30 or 31 - Immunity challenge?
Day 9 Holloween - Tribal Council
Now at this point we know that someone gets really sick, it looks like that may be Jeff. If so that would be a good reason to give him the boot, even before Roger, as a sick young guy is more of a hinderance than a non-swimming, healthy old guy. Kimmi is annoying so she would probably be next for Kucha, after both Jeff and Roger. My prediction for EP3 is Jeff, due to his sickness.

EPISODE 4
Day 10 or 11 Nov 1 or 2 - Reward Challenge?
Day 11 or 12 Nov 2 or 3 - Immunity challenge?
Day 12 Nov 3 - Tribal Council
My prediction, as it is believed that Kucha loses 2 in a row in epicodes 3 and 4, is that Roger would be the next weak link, with Michael controlling the voting.

EPISODE 5
Day 14 Nov 5 - Triage immunity challenge
Taken from day 14 call sheet
Day 15 Nov 6 - Maze immunity

Day 15 Nov 6 - Tribal Council
My prediction here is that the girls now outnummering the guys will form an uneasy alliance with Marilyn spearheading. This would put one of the stronger males at risk. We know that Jerri and Kieth are not what I would consider as friendly and I can just see that as getting worse. Also I can't help but feel that Colby and Jerri will hook up. This puts Kieth at high risk... hey anyone can cook rice and fish, you don't need a chef.

As more evidence is presented I will continue this post. If anyone has any further info to add regarding the challenges, please do.

Conspiracy Jim