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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 02-25-05, 11:42 AM (EST) "Confessional Analysis, EP2" Well, that was an interesting episode. Five people had zero confessionals. I am willing to bet there has never been an episode on any season where five people didn't receive a single confessional. The editors are changing the rules on us again. It's time to adapt. The Codes: T= tribal history confessional D=tribal dynamics confessional * = war theme confessional ^ = choices theme confessional Koror * Ian - 2T + 4T = 6T/0D * Coby - 2T/3D + 0 = 2T/3D * Katie - 2T/1D + 1D = 2T/2D ^ * Janu - 1T/1D + 1T = 2T/1D * Tom - 2T + 1T = 3T/0D * Caryn - 1T + 1T/1D = 2T/1D ^ * Willard - 1T/1D + 0 = 1T/1D * Gregg - 1T + 0 = 1T/0D * Jennifer - 0 + 0 = 0 Ulong * Angie - 2T/4D + 4D = 2T/8D * Stephenie - 2T/1D + 1T/2D = 3T/3D * Jeff - 0 + 3T/3D = 3T/3D * Bobby - 1D + 2T/3D = 2T/4D * James - 2T + 1T/2D = 3T/2D ^ * Kim - 0 + 1D = 0T/1D * Ibrehem - 1T + 0 = 1T/0D * Ashlee - 1D + 1T = 1T/1D * Jolanda - 2T/1D Let's start with Koror. Not too much going over there. The main thing we saw is that Ian has emerged as the storyteller for that tribe. Tom also has the makings of a storyteller. Not a lot of Ds at Koror, but that's mostly because we haven't seen them at Tribal Council yet. Tom, Ian and Gregg have zero Ds - none of them is the first boot from the Koror tribe. Look to Coby, Katie, Janu, Willard, or Caryn for that honor. What happened to Coby in this episode? I was expecting him to be the storytreller for Koror, but he didn't have a single confessional. That doesn't bode well for him. And then there's Jenn. Two episodes and not a single moment in the spotlight. Is she the Zoe of Survivor 10? Remember how I mentioned that one of the themes of this season is "making choices"? Well, two Kororians got interesting confessionals that were about making choices: Caryn and Katie. Caryn talked about what a bad decision it was for them to choose the new island. Katie's response to that in her confessional was: "Oh well. We're here. Get over it." We see in the previews that there's a confrontation between the two women next episode. I think one of these two is going to be in the game for a long time and the other will see her time cut short. One last thing about Koror. In the Survivor Insider footage, there's a couple of scenes about Koror losing a piece of flint and finding it again. It is narrated mostly by Gregg. This really looks like stuff that was left on the cutting room floor and almost made it into the episode. I think it's probably significant that Gregg would have had some more Ts if that footage had been included. I am not putting those confessionals into my official totals, but don't be surprised if Gregg emerges as a storyteller soon. Whew. I guess there was more going on at Koror than I had thought. Onto Ulong. Things do not look good for Angie. She's got a lot of Ds. So does Bobby. Kim got a confessional finally, but it was a D. Not a good sign. Ibrehem disappeared this episode - not that we saw much of him last week. After being absent last week, Jeff popped up with six confessionals. Making up for lost time because Jeff's time is running out? He does have an even number of Ts and Ds. Last season, there was a theory that the bootee is often hidden the week before their boot. It didn't happen this week as Ashlee wasn't hidden last week. I don't think it'll happen next week either. But if you subscribe to that theory, Ibe or Kim are at risk. (Jenn, Gregg, Willard and especially Coby fit that bill at Koror.) Back when I used to do confessional analysis, people got a "D" confessional boost right before their boot episode. Of course, this would have been Survivor 4 or 5. Editing patterns change. Still, if that holds true, Jeff is in trouble. While some are probably picking Angie for the Ulong storyteller, I like James and/or Stephenie for that role. Angie is getting Ds - storytellers get the Ts. Her narration is all about the tribal dynamics. She might last a little while, but eventually it'll catch up with her. James and Stephenie didn't have a lot of Ts in this episode, but they are the only two Ulongers that had Ts in the first and second episodes. The pattern is beginning to appear. Also, James got a choices confessional in this episode. "We're not going to follow a leader. We can make our own decisions. We're Americans and we're going to do a democracy." (not an exact quote) The editing tells us this plan will fail. Right after he says something to the effect of "we can make our own decisions", we are shown a shot of Ulong standing around, totally unsure of what to do. This tribe is heading in the wrong direction and we'll see this through James' eyes as the show progresses. In danger for episode 2 based on confessionals: Angie Jeff Bobby Jon Coby Katie   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    How are you counting them? emydi 02-25-05 1    RE: How are you counting them? Corvis 02-25-05 2        RE: How are you counting them? Flowerpower 02-25-05 3    RE: How are you counting them? Witless 02-25-05 4  RE: Confessional Analysis, EP2 Krautboy 02-28-05 5    RE: Confessional Analysis, EP2 DRONES 02-28-05 6

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-25-05, 02:51 PM (EST) 1. "How are you counting them?" LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 02:55 PM (EST) What is a "confessional" do their names have to appear on the screen. Several times with Jeff Angie and Ian they were talking but no name came up. I have Ian without a "real" confessional--he talked about the flint. I have 6 people not getting a confessional that way Ib, Coby, Ian, WIllard, Gregg, Jenn (has anyone gone 2 eps. w/o one?) Caryn-1 (the first one) Janu-1 --is her rat conf on tribal dynamics?? who will the rats vote for Tom-1 Katie-1 James-2 I agree, he's the narrator with Steph-3 Jeff-3 BJ-4 Angie-3 Kim-1 Ashlee-1 She's gone Another thing that may be happening if the all Koror plus Steph jury is true--EPMB is editing the first half of the show with more Ulong confessionals bc they won't be around later..so he doesn't have luxury of "hiding" them. So whoever is having a lot now it's bc it's the only time they will be seen.. Therefore, I'm leaning right now towards a Jeff quit/boot or BJ boot in ep. 3. If Kim is smart she will hook back up with Steph and pull an Angie in the challenges....   Top

Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 02-25-05, 03:05 PM (EST) 2. "RE: How are you counting them?" My personal rule for confessionals is they have to be talking to the camera - their name does not have to come up on the screen. Also, sometimes the counts are different depending on how you count them because sometimes a castaway will say something in a confessional, they'll go to a scene which shows what the castaway is talking about and then they'll come back to the castaway for more confessional time. That's only one confessional UNLESS the person switches to a new subject. And sometimes you just have to use your best judgement when counting 'em because it's not always really clear. In Survivor 4, I am sure Zoe went more than two episodes without a confessional.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-25-05, 07:04 PM (EST) 3. "RE: How are you counting them?" Excellent observations and interpretation, Corvis, and much appreciated! I felt the same regarding our impending cat fight, one will perservere, while the other will not be long for the tribe....Caryn did frankly appear quite bossy, and is not willing to just accept their consequences following the choice to go to the unknown island. What went through my mind as well, was why crucify him for it, what's done is done and you have to adapt or get out.....the fact that she is not "adapting" spells trouble for Caryn... At any rate, I find your confessional analysis intriguing, especially with how you classify them. I felt as though James was indeed emerging as the narrator of Ulong and found his "this is a democracy" quote quite charged. I am in agreement with your assessments and thanks for doing this! I especially agree that EPMB changes the way he edits his productions from season to season. While Ashlee had a confessional last ep, she would have still been classified as hidden...Kim with one confessional this ep, I'd say would still classify as hidden as well.   Top

Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 02-25-05, 09:28 PM (EST) 4. "RE: How are you counting them?" >Another thing that may be happening >if the all Koror plus >Steph jury is true--EPMB is >editing the first half of >the show with more Ulong >confessionals bc they won't be >around later..so he doesn't have >luxury of "hiding" them. >So whoever is having a lot >now it's bc it's the >only time they will be >seen.. This could be used in reverse, too. For example, Jenn hasn't had a single confessional yet, which could be a good sign that her story is being saved for later in the show. I'd take that as a good sign for Jenn. Gregg hasn't had much to say, either, which I find interesting in light of rumors that Gregg and Jenn have an island romance. Since MB loves irony, wouldn't it be ironic if Kim and Jeff's romance dooms them early on, but Gregg and Jenn pull off a Romber-type of deal later on?   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-28-05, 04:16 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Confessional Analysis, EP2" Nice analysis Corvis! Thought I'd throw in the "Cliff notes" version... CONFESSIONAL COUNT ULONG,,,EP1…EP2…TOTAL Angie…………6…4…10 Stephenie…….3…3…6 Bobby Jon……1…4…5 Jeff……………0…5…5 James ………2…1…3 Kim…………….0...1...1 Ibrehem.………1…0…1 Ashlee..……….1…1…2 (Boot) Jolanda..………3 (Boot) KOROR,,,EP1…EP2…TOTAL Ian……………2…3…5 Coby…………5…0…5 Katie…………3…1…4 Caryn………..1…2…3 Janu………….2…1…3 Tom………….2…1…3 Willard………2…0…2. Gregg………..1…0…1 Jennifer………0…0…0 ELIMINATED Jonathan……..1 Wanda……….1 Narrators: At Ulong, Angie and Stephenie continued to share the narrator responsibilities with the highest confessional counts. Angie’s narration has tended to focus on her own situation, while Stephenie has been more general in nature. Angie gained the respect of her tribemates, so both of our Ulong mnarrators appear to be secure in their positions. At Koror, Ian took over the narrator responsibilities from Coby, who disappeared with no confessionals. We’ll have to see if Ian is emerging as the Koror narrator. EP2 Boot: With only 1 confessional in EP1 we could consider Ashlee to have been “hidden” during EP1 leading up to her boot episode, but Ashlee received only one confessional in her boot episode as well. She may have been denied the traditional face time spike because of the situation surrounding her departure. She essentially “quit”, or asked to be voted out; behavior which is frowned upon and as such not rewarded with favorable editing. Negative Editing: At Ulong the negative attention shifted away from Angie and focused on Kim. While she only has one confessional herself, she was the focus of several others. At Korror, the negative spotlight was on the mounting tension between Caryn and Katie and several of their confessionals set the stage for the coming week. Under the Radar: Ibrehem, Gregg and Jennifer are currently flying well under the radar and seem safe for the time being. There is apparently plenty of time to tell their story. On the radar: Bobby Jon and Jeff both had confessional spikes during EP2, with Jeff going from zero to five. Dramatic swings in confessional counts are usually a telltale sign of a change in their status…usually moving in or out of danger. Conclusions: If Koror goes to TC, the drop in confessionals for Coby and Willard would suggest that they should be considered vulnerable. If Ulong goes to TC as we suspect, the confessional analysis is a little different. Ibrehem was “hidden” but he appears to be underdeveloped as a character at this point in the game. Kim was also “hidden” in her confessional counts, but was the focus of lots of negative attention, more indicative of misdirection. The spikes in face time for Bobby Jon and Jeff are the more significant confessional evidence and appear to place them in the greatest danger. Given the rumors of Jeff’s injury, he may have received his face time in preparation for his departure during EP3. Krautboy   Top

DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 02-28-05, 05:57 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Confessional Analysis, EP2" Thanks KB. Next to VS thread I always anxiously await your confessional analysis thread. Please keep it coming. DRONES   Top

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