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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
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complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-02-05, 00:02 AM (EST)
 
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"Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
"Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed"...is one of the oldest Survivor Spoiling Theorems. First hypothesized during S2, when this editing pattern was identified during Survivor: Outback, it has been used consistently during every season since. While there are occasional exceptions, it has withstood the test of time. It continues to be an effective editing tool, used to mislead the general viewing audience, while at the same time, a useful spoiling tool when the pattern is recognized. Shakestheclown, once postulated about one of the exceptions: “MB never reveals a winning strategy until it becomes absolutely necessary."
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=3079&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes Loquatrix had suggested that a distinction should be made between short, medium, and long term strategies and proposed revising the theorem to read: "Long Term Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed." http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5621.shtml#42 Both Shakes and Loquatrix make valid points. As spoilers, we need to distinguish between short term strategies that will play out quickly, and the longer term strategies revealed to us in order to mislead, and then finally to identify the winning strategy that can no longer be concealed, as critical events unfold in the game. Voting strategies fall into the short-term category. There will usually be two opposing voting strategies revealed during an episode. They usually play out at TC; one fails and one succeeds. This theorem is really about longer-term strategies involving alliances, betrayal, and “playing the game.” This thread is intended to be a place to discuss the Theorem, and it’s exceptions, as well as a place to identify and track the strategies revealed to us as the story unfolds… 
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-02-05, 00:03 AM (EST)
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1. "Pre-Show Strategies Revealed" |
Looking at the pre-show confessionals, the only strategies revealed so far have to do with flirting and using sex appeal to gain an advantage…
Kimberly Mullen, 25, is a graduate student and former Miss Ohio USA from Huber Heights, Ohio;
"And unless I can get a boy to fall in love with me, and use that to my advantage...then...then my looks can play a factor, because there are some hot boys" (Early Show Promo)
Bobby Jon Drinkard, 27 and a waiter from Troy, Ala.;
“Flirting is fun, man. And it makes people smile, they like that. They need that, that's what they're supposed to get. They're females. They need to be lifted up.” (ET Promo) Ibrehem Rahman, another 27-year-old waiter from Alabama;
“I think that being an attractive or good looking person can be good for you if you use it right.” (Web Promo) Jennifer Lyon, 32, a nanny from Encino, Calif.
"Being one of the more attractive people, I think it's uh...it's gonna be a challenge...to do just the right amount of flirting, and just the...not doing it and stepping on other people's toes" (Early Show Promo)
Applying the theorem to these comments, we might conclude that while flirting and sex appeal may help these survivors short term, it’s probably not the strategy, or the basis for the alliance that leads to the final four.
Krautboy
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confab 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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02-02-05, 04:36 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Pre-Show Strategies Revealed" |
Katie and Willard talked about strategy specifics too: Katie: I am manipulative, outgoing, flexible, compassionate, sneaky, and I think that plays into my strategy, because that is my strategy, to be myself cause all of those attributes can win you the game, that is why I am perfect for this game. [Acting] I am not trying to win a million dollars, I am just here to lose some weight so once I hit my goal weight I can be gone, but please don't kick me off before my goal weight. Willard: I'm certainly not going to let people know I'm a lawyer... There's an old game called Dungeons and Dragons, you roll the dice and create a character. I have created one. I'm going to try to be non-threatening, helpful, likable, until I get rid of all the people that have to be gotten rid of.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-02-05, 12:38 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Pre-Show Strategies Revealed" |
These two do not bother me as bad, but here is something Willard does not realize. There are two other lawyers there and if he does not do a really good "acting' job, those other two lawyers will be able to sniff him out quickly. Katie may be able to get by with it. As long as she does not become too passive. They may see her as a weaker player.
I wonder if these two strategies are a sign of first boots somehow? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....................
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-02-05, 08:20 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Pre-Show Strategies Revealed" |
Hey, Jennifer, we know your an attractive female, not that attractive, but can you show us some survivor skills. After 4 days we are not gonna care about your looks, the bo will set in.
Can you play the game?Bobby Jon, pretty boys come a dime a dozen. Get out of the way
for those that want the million. Ibrehem, how about using those eyes for focusing or observing,
instead of making eyes at the mirror. Oh, that set of instructions you missed while smiling at your reflection in the water, they were for the next challenge. Kimberly, I thought there was hope for you. I was hoping you had the eye of the tiger in you, not an affection for the eye of the snake.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-02-05, 12:33 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Pre-Show Strategies Revealed" |
The problem with these "confessional type strategies" is they are not, at least not full strategies. Kim is playing off Amber's situation. The difference is, Amber and Rob had time to develop a relationship from being on previous survivors and having common ties. Bobby Jon is assuming, first, that all the women or even some of the women are straight and that if he flirts they will be flattered. Not.
Ibrehem and Jennifer are both assuming that their looks will automatically win them the game. This is objectionable and can be insulting to those of us out here who would like for the people to actually participate in Survivor, instead of parading around and seeing if someone picks up on their scent.
This is not Big Brother,For Love Or Money, The Real World,
that loser show Forever Eden or Temptation Island. These people are kind of losing the meaning. They might be able to flirt their way through some people, but what about the others that do not give a s*** about romance or lust. We all like sexual connotations on survivor, but sparingly. Too much of a good thing or anything...........is just that. Too much.
Please give us all a break!!!!!
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-03-05, 09:22 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
I believe MB showed us Brian's strategy for a reason. There was quite a backlash when Vee won the season before. Nobody understood why she deserved to win. So MB decided to go the exact opposite and finally show us the strategy of his winner in the next season. Also Thailand had very few interesting players and Brian was interesting to watch. He had a cold calculating way to get the job done but none of his followers even realized he was leading them around. It worked for that series. But that was an exception and usually the winner is hid with very few clues what their real plan is.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-03-05, 05:48 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
I do remember Brian talking about strategy: about being "the iceman" and like "a shark", and we did see when he made alliances with Ted and later Clay. But he never said point-blank to the camera, "I have alliances with Ted, Clay, Helen, and Jan, and I've convinced them all that I'm taking them to the final 2." If he'd said that early on, his whole strategy would have been revealed, for the purposes of this argument. It was easy to speculate what he was doing as the show progressed. But he didn't articulate it for the audience until the penultimate episode. To me that is the difference. But, I will concede that MB may have had to give clues to Brian's strategy along the way because, like in A$$, no one else in the game had anything going on. The Chuay Gahns were all dependent on Brian and the other tribe (I forgot the name) just self-destructed. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-22-05, 12:40 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
In survivor Vanuatu, they showed us Chris as he talked to everyone except Twila, about going to the final 2. That alliance wasn't revealed until the very end letting us think Twila was with Scout.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-03-05, 11:21 PM (EST)
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22. "Disagree" |
We weren't shown the winning strategies for 5 of those 6 seasons from the start.In S4, the focus, at least for Vee, and as far as there was any focus on Vee, was on her relationship with Sean. That was not her winning move, nor was it any kind of decisive move. In fact, it was more red herring than anything else. The primary focus for S4 was Rotu, and, specifically, the Rotu 4. That someone from original Maraamu won the thing came completely out of left field. In S5, the alliance they focused on most was Brian/Ted. Second? Brian/Helen. Brian's winning strategy was to take Clay to essentially do what Colby wouldn't. That is to take the guy you know you can beat to the F2. I'd like to see where this was shown to us at all, let alone in the first few episodes. Brian saying he was on a business trip doesn't qualify as a strategy any more than Chris saying he started playing the game on Day 1 does. In S6, what won it for Jenna was not her alliance with the pretty girls. In fact, it almost did her in. Beyond that, I'd argue strategy didn't win the game for her at all unless you consider picking Matt over Rob a strategy. She was toast if she didn't win those last 2 ICs. That's not strategy, that's competitiveness. The strategy shoved down our throats was the Men will stick together. Didn't happen. Then it was the F3 alliance of Deena/Heidi/Jenna. That didn't pan out either. In S7, Burnett went out of his way to show that Sandra wouldn't win. Fairplay said "no way she makes the final 4 and no way does she win". Raise your hand if you thought Sandra would win when Rupert got bushwhacked and she went mental. At that point the editing was trying to push the Lil/JFP/Burton F3 pact. That didn't pan out either. S8 is the exception noted elsewhere on this thread. S9 was all about the Fat Five (which didn't work). Then it was all about which woman would win. The reason this theory holds is because, with the exception of S5 and S8, there has been a HUGE game shift (or multiple game shifts) during the back half of the show in every season since S3. Rotu 4? Nope. Deena's bunch? Nope. The Graduate alliance from S7? Nope. The Yasur Wimmins group? Nope. That's the point we're trying to make here.  Fester
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-04-05, 02:22 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Disagree" |
I don't think we'll agree, but just to offer the other side.In Survivor 4, Vee's strategy was to stay out of the way of the fighters and let them take each other out. We saw this from early on, when she pointed the finger at Hunter and lead to the confrontation which lead to his boot. Then after the switch, she continually stayed out of the line of fire and let Rob and Sean take the heat. In Survivor 5, we were constantly shown Brian's strategy which was to control his tribe and the voting, never get emotionally involved, and win challenges. He didn't lay out all the alliances until the end, but it was clear he was controlling things and what his strategy was. In Survivor 6, we were shown Jenna's strategy, which was bond with people so they'll vote for you in the end. That's why she won the game against antisocial Matt. I agree that it wouldn't have worked if she didn't win those last ICs. In Survivor 7, we saw Sandra's strategy early on when she talked about how as long as it wasn't her, she'd vote for anyone. All of those strategies were revealed early on. We didn't pick up on all of them (at least I know I didn't!), but they were there. Like I said, I don't think we'll agree, but there ya have it. 
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-04-05, 10:24 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: The disconnect" |
This is very good advoce. Be wary of what they want to sell you on. It is a way of putting a spin on it. The element of surprise. Alot of these seemingly helpful "clues" are really meant to mislead us and have us second guess everything. One might think Burnett is zigging when he is zagging with the show
and the storyline.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-04-05, 12:09 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: The disconnect" |
Oooh! Festerfan, I get it. I see the disconnect. Hmm. The trick is to figure out what EPM is selling, not necessarily what we're observing.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-02-05, 10:54 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
Episode 1 all stars:The beach, a dead tree, two survivors walk over to pick it up each grabbing an end. Rawb: "So, you want to make an alliance?" Amber (giggles): "Are you serious?" Rawb: "I'm dead serious" Amber: "OK" The rest is history. Sometimes it IS in our faces from the start. 
S10 PTB Sign up HERE
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-02-05, 11:22 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
I realize that it is the exception and not the norm, I'm just pointing out a more recent one that did work. Since MB edits the show his way and he also realizes that spoilers look at that kind of thing, he could reveal a bunch that don't work, but also could slip in the one that does. It is like the opening credit spoilers, you really don't know until the end of the season what if anything was let slip.I guess what I am saying is that while I agree that most of the time that strategies revealed do not succeed (when specific and not just broad statements), I won't be discounting a players strategy revealed out of hand.
S10 PTB Sign up HERE
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-02-05, 05:54 PM (EST)
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17. "regarding Rob and Lamber" |
...as I argued before they won when this was first brought up, I felt that MB's need to justify Amber as a worthy all-star + Survivor finally having the romance that MB had been striving for since he tried to force Greg/what's her name lip balm girl BS romance on us overid his desire to hide the winning strategy from the viewing public for as long as possible.Remember, this was allstars, so there were some different editing rules. Most important to MB was that the viewers understood and, more importantly, accepted the winner at the end. The only way he could do this was to show us step by step what a great game of Survivor Amber (and Rob) played from Day 1 to the end. MB knew he was gonna take heat for picking Amber in the first place, so imagine his suprsie when she actually won the thing. Now, in order to protect the integrity of playing ability of the rest of the allstar cast, MB decided to focus on what a great player Amber has become since S2. This way, when she won, people would find it believable and wouldn't be scratching their heads as to the other 17 people selected for the show (i.e. they must be retarded to let her win) Plus, as was pointed out in this thresd, it really was the ONLY story of the entire show so what else was he gonna show? Rob so completely dominated the show that it wasn't even worth the time to try to misdirect the audience week in week out with the tease of a Rob boot. How many weeks in a row would taht have worked before the audience got tired of it? 
So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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02-05-05, 04:01 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: If you don't like that example, then how about:" |
the alliance itself didn't fail, didn't vote each other out,
and didn't flip flop. The Theorem is about revealed strategies, not *necessarily* specific alliances...altho they can be a big part of it. Another subtle distinction is that the strategy doesn't need to fail; it just won't succeed. To use your example in S3, one of the first alliances revealed was a Lex-Tom F2 agreement. Any viewer who spent time on the Spoiler Boards during S1 and 2 knew that this F2 wasn't gonna happen based on this Theorem. Later, we see the close alliance between Lex-Ethan. Just how allied these two were became clear on the trip to town following the RC. Uh-oh. Revealed so not going to happen.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-02-05, 11:04 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
Some specific strategies that were revealed and did not succeed:S9: The fat five alliance; Ami's all-woman alliance S7: The Burton/Jon/Lillian final 3 agreement S6: The Deena/Jenna/Heidi/Rob/Alex final 5 agreement S5: Ted's alliance with Brian S4: The Rotu 4
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-03-05, 03:55 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
Could it be then, that to spoil this game effectivly, we go about it in 2 or 3 "parts". Part 1 could be KB's "Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" theorem. Part 2 Just before the Merge, could be an assesment of successful and unsuccessful strategies so far, confessions, etc. Part 3 Near final 4, something else, all bets are off. Trying to decide on THE stratigy that always is in effect, to pick a boot order, just will not work (unles you know someones Uncle...).
Charter Member, April 2001; Club Anti-DAW
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-21-05, 03:44 PM (EST)
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34. "EP1: Strategies Revealed..." |
The EP1 strategies revealed to us fell into two primary categories: Voting strategies and alliances formed.As we’ve discussed, the voting strategies are short term and play out during the episode in which they are revealed; one succeeds and one does not. They are used to create suspense leading up to TC. We were shown Jolanda’s strategy of organizing a vote against Angie and Stephenie’s conflicting strategy of voting out Jolanda… The other strategies revealed to us were attempts at forming alliances. They have already been discussed here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5713.shtml We were shown Coby and Angie’s kind of unspoken, kindred spirit alliance, and Tom’s strategy of aligning with Stephenie and Ian…only to have them fail at the Pick ‘em, when members of thee alliances ended up on opposite tribes. The only significant long-term alliance strategy revealed to us was that of Coby, Caryn and Greg...formed during discussions before the Pick’em, and reinforced by the result of the tribal selection and Coby’s decision to select Caryn over Angie. Based on this theorem, we can expect that eventually this strategy revealed will not succeed and the alliance between Greg, Coby and Caryn will fall apart...it's just a question of when and how.
Krautboy
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Wheezy 9153 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-22-05, 01:32 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: EP1: Strategies Revealed..." |
I don't know if this falls into the category or not, but it's worth mentioning...Coby's early-on 'strategy' of choosing a person to boot (Jonathon) was revealed. We saw Coby going from person to person to sort of direct this move and it actually worked. Even though they didn't end up voting Jonathon off at TC, there were plenty of chances to pick strong-looking young Johnathon over some of the other guys. In essence, Coby was dead-on and his strategy may have encouraged several survivors to 'vote' Jon off by not choosing him. Perhaps we need to watch Coby as/if he tries this technique again. Perhaps it will be his downfall. I believe he goes far, but who knows for sure...  Wheeza
Wheeze * Everything In Between
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-05, 02:59 PM (EST)
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40. "EP2: Strategies Revealed..." |
The main new strategy revealed to us during EP2 was the alliance of Steph, James and Angie.The recent spoilers of Angie and Willard going in EP5 and speculation about the last three Ulong being Steph, Ibrehem and Bobby Jon, seems to support the notion that the alliance of Steph, Angie and James will not succeed because it was revealed to us. The only real interaction we've seen between Steph and Bobby Jon is his verbalizing his differing opinion...so the editing is probably hiding whatever plans Steph, BJ and Ibe have...perhaps an alliance that keeps the three of them around longer than the rest of the Ulong tribe.
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-03-05, 03:12 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: EP2: Strategies Revealed..." |
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 03:25 PM (EST)The only real interaction we've seen between Steph and Bobby Jon is his verbalizing his differing opinion...so the editing is probably hiding whatever plans Steph, BJ and Ibe have...perhaps an alliance that keeps the three of them around longer than the rest of the Ulong tribe. Well if things go the way we think they are going to go for Ulong, it would make sense that these three outlast the rest. Once Jeff is gone they are the strongest trio at Ulong. If they hope to mount any kind of comeback against Koror, they'll pretty much have to drop the weaker Ulongs in succession. It may not be so much an alliance as a desperate attempt at self-preservation. I think Steph feels connected to BJ because he picked her for the tribe. She always discusses the vote with him, even though he disagrees with her. But we haven't seen either of them discuss the vote one-on-one with Ibrehem. Which may support the idea that BJ outlasts Ibrehem.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-05, 03:39 PM (EST)
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42. "Thoughts on Steph, James, and Angie" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 03:40 PM (EST)This grouping, to me, is not one that would naturally flock together. I think, presently, this group is not a strong alliance. Body language and reluctance to talk freely about who they were going to vote for in E2 demonstrates that they're still feeling each other out. Also presently, they all agree that the Jeff-Kim pairing needs to be dealt with sooner rather than later. So for the moment, they're more of an alliance of convenience than one of long-term goals. They have been presented to the audience as a potential alliance, but once Jeff is gone, will they still have a common purpose? As I mentioned in the BJ Spoiler thread, it could be E5's TC that splits them up (as Angie is rumored to be going then), or it could be changing priorities with continued trips to TC. In the long run, ALL Ulong alliances will fail, if the spoilers are correct. And if the spoilers are correct, we likely won't see much of Koror's alliances until the merge. Fester
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 11:32 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
This is how the alliances appear at this point:- Ian, Tom, Katie, Jenn, Gregg vs. Coby, Janu, Caryn, the-now-expired Willard - Jenn and Gregg consider flipping to ally with Coby and Janu after Caryn is voted off and get rid of Tom and Ian. - Tom and Ian are appear inseparable. If the spoilers hold true, these are the fallacies that we know exist in those assumptions: - Caryn is not the next target of the major alliance, since she is projected to finish fifth. Since the odds of her going on an IC run appear extrememly slim, this must mean she has a hidden alliance protecting her. This alliance may not exist now...maybe she saves her neck by revealing Gregg's potential betrayal? - Jenn and Gregg either did not ever plan to flip, or they change their strategy, possibly when they realize Caryn is not the next head on the chopping block. With all the negative editing of Janu, they may question whether she would be willing and able to physically stay in the game long enough to make their plot work. - If only one out of Tom and Ian make the final two, then either Katie wins the final IC or Ian is smart enough to separate from Tom when the timing is right.
Beblo and Kimdra
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 11:54 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
I think if Steph is able to re-establish a closeness to Tom that she could also play a part in nixing Gregg's plan. Janu is weak and given a sympathy boot. And Steph wants to vote with Tom's side. So Coby and Caryn would not look so sure as alliance partners for Gregg and Jenn. And Gregg has been speaking for Jenn. But we have also seen a closeness between Jenn and Katie. So maybe Jenn isn't crazy about Gregg's plan with Coby that would go against Katie.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 12:09 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-17-05 AT 01:13 PM (EST)I think Jenn must be fully on board with Gregg's plan, or he wouldn't have spoked so confidently about it. The monkey-wrench, I have a feeling, is going to be Janu. All we ever see is her shuddering and shivering and looking distraught. I don't think she's going to be able to last much longer. So Tom, Ian, Katie, Caryn and Stephenie could vote her out in a mercy boot -- which would thwart Gregg's plan since it moves Caryn into the other faction and denies him anyone to replace Janu with. It might be smarter for Gregg to pull Caryn into his alliance NOW -- then the next time they go to TC this quintet could vote out Katie. But I guess Gregg doesn't want to tip his hand yet to Tom and Ian; plus, he may be worried that in another alliance of five he and Jenn would eventually be targetted by the other three. In an alliance of four he and Jenn have the control.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-17-05, 12:08 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
Corvis: You missed the asterisk didn't you?"Stragegies Revealed Do Not Succeed" * *Unless they are hidden by 10 other revealed strategies. 
Krautboy
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 12:02 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
Don't forget the sub-alliances.You have Tom/Ian with Katie as the 3rd, then Gregg/Jenn.
You have Coby/Janu, and had Caryn/Willard You also had Coby/Willard, so the link between the weak 4 was Coby and Willard. Gregg and Jenn should definitely see that they are on the outside of the 5, and so they want to team up with Coby/Janu. Gregg had hinted before that he needed Janu for his plan, but was waiting to hatch his plan until they actually had to vote someone off. This worked out well for Gregg because had Koror truly made it to the merge without losing anyone, then the weak 4 could have made an alliance with the Ulong leftovers at least forced a tie. If they bring in Gregg and Jenn, then the weak 4 would have become the strong 6 or 7. But even so, Gregg and Jenn would have gone out at 6 and 7. So this turn of events really helped out Gregg/Jenn. The thing about these alliances, though, is that they aren't just alliances of convenience. Gregg and Jenn are a couple, and they won't split for anything. And Tom and Ian definitely have the father/son thing going. Katie is just the 3rd (or the 5th), so she is expendable. And even with Coby and Janu, there isn't that extra layer of "alliance" because of the father/son or the sexual tension. Rob and Amber proved that if you don't break up the alliance, then the alliance can take you through the whole game. So strategically, there are 2 alliances that have to be broken. Gregg is insightful to want to split up Tom/Ian, but he also has to remember that once Ian is solo (or Tom, but we can pretty much guess it will be Tom first becuase he is a challenge whore), he and Katie can team up with Coby/Janu to split up Gregg/Jenn. Ian should want Gregg gone so that he doesn't become the next challenge whore, leaving Ian/Katie/Coby/Janu/Jenn. Jenn is now the floater, but she has been betrayed by the original alliance and the flopped alliance. Logically, she should be taken out next, except that Ian is the next challenge threat. Which leaves the estrogen alliance of Katie/Janu/Jenn, and Coby. (Love ya, Coby - you're super fantabulous!) At that point it's anyone's game, kind of like when Paschal was left w/Neleh, Vee, and Kathy. But what really is there to indicate that Gregg's strategy won't succeed, at least until everything I said above plays out? I don't know that there really is. Ulong is decimated, physically but moreso mentally. They have won 2 challenges, and ended up with a sewing kit and some food. Not the most enduring rewards. So mentally they are spent. Ibe was inches away from taking the sake bottle, but he lost it. They just don't have the mental game anymore. And even if they were to win the next IC's, they would still enter the merge at a numeric disadvantage. Though they might get some Koror dissenters to flop (I mean, Koror is NOT the love tribe), they are pretty much not going to win. Neither Vee nor Chris could pull off a win after losing so much as Ulong has. Personally, I think that Koror will keep winning, and will enter the merge 8/2. Steph may make the jury, and she may pull off a Shii Ann IC to stick around one round beyond what she otherwise would. But even if Ibe is the merge boot and Caryn is the 1st jury member, Gregg's F7 will come to pass, and then there will be a flop. That is, unless Coby is savvy enough to go to Ian and tell him of Gregg's plan. Coby has that devious side to him - remember how he got rid of Jonathan? Gregg may have unwittingly pulled an Alex, and ended up screwing up his own game. And if Coby can get rid of Gregg after the merge instead of Caryn (which is excellent gameplay, since you know that you have split up Rob and Amber, er... I mean, Gregg and Jenn), then that could allow Coby/Janu/Caryn to team up with the Ulong floaters. Tom doesn't cut people much slack, and if he thinks Gregg is going to backstab him, he may not be able to see straight enough to see how his game might get screwed up. And Ian will follow Tom instead of guiding him back to doing what is good strategy. So even if Gregg's plan doesn't succeed, Coby is all of the sudden in quite a powerful position. Remember, Jeff said that knowledge is power. And Coby has that knowledge. 
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 12:44 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
>Katie is just the 3rd (or the 5th), so she is expendable. Katie is not expendable, because she fills an important role - the perfect F2 partner. I don't see Ian or Tom - particularly Tom - willing to put their friendship ahead of winning a million dollars. Neither will pull a Colby. Both of them know their chances are much better in a F2 against Katie, who is seen as argumentative and useless. For them, their alliance will end at the final IC - winner take all.
Beblo and Kimdra
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television 282 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 04:31 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
One problem that the strategy has, assuming Koror keeps 8 members until after the merge and votes out Ulong first, is the assumption that Caryn will be voted out next. As mentioned by a few people, Janu could get the mercy vote, or the majority alliance could target Coby if he's perceived as too popular, or too much of a wild card, strategically. By the time the individual game comes around, getting rid of weakness becomes a bad idea, so it would make sense to keep Janu around. Either way, Gregg's not in a position to dictate to T/I/K that they should vote out Caryn, so he might have to go with them if they want to get Coby, because he doesn't have the numbers. If Caryn thought it would be beneficial to stick with T/K/I (although that wouldn't make sense from what we've seen so far, but who knows) that would make his alliance a moot point, and he'd just have to hope something changed. Then, he'd get voted out once the alliance proves unbreakable and boring.
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TanNymph 309 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 05:30 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
It's possible that Gregg, Tom, Ian, Jenn and Katie have already established a pecking order among the outsiders and Caryn is the next to go. However, the previews do lead us to believe there will be a mercy boot of Janu. I do think he showed his hand to Coby too early tho.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-05, 12:15 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: EP5: Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed" |
It's also important to note that both Coby and Ian voted for Stephenie to receive immunity last night. Both of them could be thinking ahead to pulling her into their respective alliances. Tom, interestingly enough, voted for Bobby Jon...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-05, 00:25 AM (EST)
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62. "EP6: Strategies Revealed..." |
EP6 included two text book examples of “Strategies Revealed…”Stephenie had confessionals during which she revealed her agreement with Bobby Jon and their strategy to stick together and vote off James first, followed by Ibrehem the next time they go to TC. We also heard Bobby Jon confirm his alliance with Stephenie during a separate confessional, in which he stated, “Me and Stephenie, all the way to the end”. These two confessionals appear to be classic examples of the theorem we’ve been studying in this thread…This strategy revealed by both Stephenie and BJ will most likely not succeed…and somehow Stephenie will convince Ibrehem to vote with her, in order to save himself.
Krautboy
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Surviette 124 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-29-05, 12:10 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: EP6: Strategies Revealed..." |
I think Steph forced a tie in Ep6, both to keep part of her word to James and also to give BJ one last opportunity to change his vote. If you study Steph's votes (Phoenix TC Vidcaps Ep5 &Ep6)
her "male" handwriting evident in Ep5, is not the same as her neatly printed JAMES vote at the end of Ep6. This would expain her pausing (i.e. How do I disguise my male handwriting?) and is also evidence of strategy, which probably did evade BJ.
ETA: Re ringle Question about more women winning Survivor. Maybe this is a hint that Steph OUTLASTS all the men in her own tribe?!
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-29-05, 12:36 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: EP6: Strategies Revealed..." |
DW - was that week before last? I could'a sworn I that was last week. I may have to get Tivo and stop faking that I know stuff.KO - I agree, you're surely right. As you point out, her story is or has peaked, and will conclude soon. She just doesn't seem to be, in her confessionals, to be overly torn up (emotionally) regarding her vote. There seem to be some tactical aspects (thus a strategy) to her indecision. Be that as it may, bottom line is that her story isn't subtle enough (as was Chris's, and other winners)to be a long term one. I have to agree that as soon as koror runs out of other ulongs, and maybe an annoying koror or two, that she will go. 
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