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"The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
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01-27-05, 10:49 AM (EST)
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"The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"

Anyone else ready to play with me yet?

It is hard to believe we are already beginning another season of Survivor but it is right around the corner. Since we now have commentary by Jeff and his thoughts on the contestants along with a usual refresher course on the basics of the game, let’s get started in our analyzing the end of the road! As those of you who love doing this, we try to see long term results as opposed to short term to get an idea early on who appears to be headed to the end of the game. This is based on looks, descriptions, the game etc. Obviously when the show starts all the editing will play a factor as well.

Blame Survivor for having twenty people - my posts will just get longer

In our dime store analysis, let’s recap what we do know for this season:

Mixed Tribes in the long run

Obviously we know they will start as one group but the long haul will not be this. Going back to mixed tribes since we did the men vs. women again, the dynamics are obviously different. The socialization will have a different aura since we can include a measurement of flirting, and mixed gender alliances. Feminine wiles and male chest puffing should be seen by us viewers. Now will that carry over to get rid of those not in that crowd?

Unlike same sex tribes, reasons for booting can be different. Where an elder on a same sex tribe be highly regarded, in a mixed tribe it could be a death wish. The initial boots this time around may be vastly different

Age
The majority of the players are on the younger side which seems now to portray anti Vanuatu much like last season had an air of anti Amazon. We could surmise then that the younger may prevail here as opposed to last season when the elders took control (anti Amazon) Assumptions are never good however but we can see if this does indeed head in that direction. Again, with a heavier makeup of younger people, the elimination of the older people may be sooner rather than later.

War
Heavy this season is obviously the war theme. Looks like Sarge helped pave the way for this How this plays out in the themes that Mark Burnett brings to our screen should be interesting. Whereas last season, balance, sacrifice, spirituality played an integral part, Lea’s “casualties of war” may be prevalent. In war, the weak are overcome by they strong in battle. Will we see an annihilation?

Challenges
Heavy on the artillery? I would suspect we are going to have some interesting and fairly challenging ones ahead. Due to the fact there WILL be mixed tribes, it will not be as necessary to “equalize” the playing field so perhaps balancing challenges will not be as prevalent as last season. Considering the makeup of this season, MB may make these challenge very exhausting which may not fare well for those less physical


The Players thus far

As I recall, Jeff was pretty on target with his assessment of some of the contestants last season. To recap a few, he deemed Brady an early target, Brook was a “dark horse”, he “pulled” for Chad, Eliza “could emerge as a villain and is lippy”, young John “not long for the game”, “Scout is one of my favorites; I wouldn’t want to kick Scout off”, “You can’t help but pull for Twilla, what is against her is her being out of her element, it will be an uphill battle”, “Bubba is our Big Tom..I don’t know if he is strong as he is putting on” , Leann: “......can settle in the middle but the problem is you get lost and no one connects with, fine line between connect and hanging out on edges” , Ami “....background that gives her that chance to be a leader or prepped her to be a leader” and our winner..........

“If Chris is everything he reports to be, he’ll do just fine in the game, that’s the question. Is he putting on a really this strong “I’ll tackle anything bring it on, you can’t beat me kind of guy? I don’t know. I think he’s one of the guys that could either emerge as really strong or fade fast” Also, a guy you know will play the game like Mariano; super exciting to us.............”

With that, let’s take a brief look at his current commentary; I bolded certain parts and I wish to acknowledge DCReads at SS for the transcriptions:

Ibrehem: I think hisbig challenge is going to be integrating for obvious reasons – cultural differences, only black guy in the show, and that is never easy, no matter what anybody wants to say. There’s a difference there and I think that’s going to he his challenge. He’s a physically fit guy –could be seen as a threat or could be a quiet leader. It’s really hard to tell what these choices these guys are going to make, but that’s the assessment I’d make on him.

Ashlee: Ashlee is young, very good looking, Mormon. Her beliefs are going to play a part in this game – they’re going to have to if she lasts very long because this is an ethical game. Sooner or later she’s going to have to decide where the line in the sand is for her. (Cut) For instance, I don’t know if it’s okay if you’re a Mormon to use sex appeal as a weapon (laughs). I don’t know – is that a sin? (laughs) She’ll be fun to watch either way.

Bobby Jon: Bobby Jon is a young, good-looking guy. Kind of plays the “aw-shucks” game which I don’t buy for a second. This guy knows exactly how charming he is and how good-looking he is. But when we met him, he’s really good at it, and it could really work. That guy could go a long way. Unless the other guys look at him and say “No way are you sticking around, dude! You’re gone!

Caryn: Caryn is someone that I liked right when she walked in the room because she has such a strong presence. Strong point of view – you don’t get the feeling that she’s going to waffle. Doesn’t mean that she’ll play her cards. But I think she’s got a pretty good head on this game. She’s one of 3 attorneys we have, so that should be fun to watch these guys go at it. And I think any time you have a mother, and in her case a mother of 3, there’s an experience there that tends to help them in the game. They’ve been around these situations where you have multiple people wanting multiple things and how do you please everybody. Moms do okay on this show.

Angie: Angie is looks-wise is a fish out of water. Tattoos. Very interesting background. Some of the stuff she’s been through. And I think her obvious obstacle is going to be: Are people going to judge her by the way she looks? Or will she be able to socialize quickly enough for people to look past how her body looks and get into who she is - because she’ a very bright and crafty girl. I think if she can assimilate, she might be able to hang low enough to stay in the game.

Coby: Coby’s the kind of guy who walks into room and right away, you’re laughing. You’re not laughing at him, you’re laughing with him because he’s either got a funny story to tell, or he’s done something wacky with his hair. And because he’s around people all the time in his profession, I think he’s probably smart enough to assess people and know who he can push and who he should back off from so he doesn’t sabotage himself in the game. If he’s as good as he thinks he is, that’s what he’ll do.

Gregg: Gregg’s a big question mark to me. I don’t know how he’s going to do in this game He reminds me of some guys we’ve had on the show before who are very physically fit and they’re pretty good overall in terms of skills and athleticism. The big question is how they will integrate with the group. And that’s going to be the question for him. I think if he’s too quiet and too laid back, he’ll be a guy they’ll hold on to him for a while and then get rid of.

Ian: Ian is another guy that instantly puts a smile on your face because he just has a fun, warm energy about him. Done a lot of things in his life for a young guy – you know, he’s skipped around all different sorts of places, and that could really serve him well if in those travels he’s learned to socialize with people (Cut). Or it could work against him is if he’s become so independent that he’s just used to doing things his own way. That will kill you in this game.

James: James, the self-described redneck – I don’t buy for a second. This is the second guy this season that I think is putting us on. But he’s a great character and I’m looking forward to seeing him on this show, but I don’t think he’s near as dumb as he tries to play. For a guy who’s so poor, he sure has enough money to color his hair. So I don’t know what’s going on there. But it will be interesting to see if he can keep that charade up. That’ll be the question I have. See on Day 1 if he’s the same on Day 25, and then I’ll be impressed.

Janu: Janu, the Las Vegas showgirl. Here’s the thing that impressed me about her: She graduated college after 20 years. That is impressive to me. She didn’t quit. It took forever, but she did it. And I think when you accomplish something like that, your self-confidence is such that you believe you can do anything. She’s certainly been in the world – has to be a little backstabbing in the Las Vegas showgirl world. She’s physically fit, been a dancer all her life. She can be fun out there.

Jeff: Jeff is a charming guy in an odd way. We gave him a hard time when we met him about shaving his body, and talking about how many women he’s dated, but at the end of the day, we kept talking about him. So there’s something about him that always kept us coming back for a little more. He’s kind of an underdog favorite of mine. I hope he does well on the show. I’m not sure he’s skilled enough socially to do as well as he thinks he’s going to do. We’ll have to see.

Jennifer: Jen the nanny. This is going to be interesting to watch her – because if you look at her and her nails with the French manicure and her neatly tucked in hair, you’re thinking “You’ll never make it out there. You’re going to fade on Day 1.” But I think there might be a little more to her than people are going to see at first glance. Her biggest competition? The other women.

Jolanda: Jolanda is yet another attorney, a defense attorney, with indigent clients. So she is clearly someone who respects and wants to take care of the underdog, but she does it with such force that she’s intimidating! This is a world-class athlete, still in great shape, very smart, comes in tall and strong and you’re thinking “Oh my god!” And then she smiles and puts you at ease! She’s got a lot of skills, this woman, and if she can maneuver in a way that doesn’t come on too strong and get to a point where the game’s individual, she could kick everybody’s butt in this game.

Jonathan: Jonathan – you know, young guy, testicular cancer, survived it. I always watch guys like that, because, “You can’t tell me 39 days on Survivor is tougher than what I went through.” So, you know, he’s kind of a dark horse I might put a little money on.

Katie: Katie is a huge personality. From the minute we met her, she’s writing poems, telling jokes – she’s like a comic. That can be really fun to have around if the group is fun. If the group is serious and you’re the one popping off jokes at night when everybody’s trying to sleep, you’re gone.

Kim: The thing about Kim that’s most intriguing is that she learned Arabic. And the reason she learned Arabic is because she wanted to be able to read magazines that might have a different point of view than the United States, and she wanted to be able to understand an unbiased point of view. That says a lot about how she might approach this game. If she’s able to reason like that and make other people feel like they’re being heard, and that she’s listening and considering, that’s huge. That is the essence of Survivor – being able to communicate with different people you don’t know, that are from different walks of life. And this is a girl who went out and learned Arabic (laughs) simply to understand why we’re at war.

Stephenie: Stephenie’s good-looking, athletic, strong. From what she says, she’s very loyal until you cross her, and then she’ll cut your throat. Perfect candidate for Survivor! And let’s just hope she lasts awhile, because she could be fun. And if she can also get to the individual part of the game, she’s tough. There’s a lot of guys in this game who would be afraid to go up against her in a challenge.

Tom: Tom is salt-of-the-earth guy. A father. A firefighter. There’s no chance of this guy being a villain. You hope he lasts long enough in the game to be a hero. If he does last for a while, he’s the kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say, “You know what, why not him?” Everything about him is good.

Wanda: Wacky Wanda is a wild card. She could be the first one out of this game so fast your head is spinning, or we could see a situation like we did with Lil, where suddenly she’s in Final 2 and you’re scratching your head going, “How did the woman with all the songs make it to the Final 2?” Wanda likes to sing! and she likes to come on strong! and wear big bright clothes! and come on like this! Some people really take to that and find it charming, and other people just want to shut it off. If she can read people and figure that out, great. If she can’t, I’ll be snuffing her torch.

Willard: I liked Willard the minute I walked in the room, and I liked him because he’s my kind of guy. He’s got a point of view. He’s well spoken. He doesn’t hold back. He’s in great shape. Loves his wife, loves to make love to his wife, and wants to win this game. And, for the first time, we have a guy who’s telling us coming in, “I’m not going to tell people I’m a lawyer. I’m going to tell them I’m a postal worker, and I’m going to play every one of them.” And I hope he does

So, what do we have here. A lot of very interesting observations which I do believe we should eye very carefully. Merely a glance over on my part and most of you know I don’t dally too much in information that has been given so my observations are purely from what I am reading right now and the “look” of them along with how we know at some juncture there will be mixed gender tribes with a makeup of more young than old.

Mind you, Jeff does like to throw out teasers that can hurt us. About Mia he said: “So far my interaction with her, she’s easy to get along with; I think Mia may find a way to hover in the middle and not cause any problems and people might forget about her for awhile Ahem.

So with that, my initial take with very sketchy thoughts and in no particular order

Ibrehem: If he plays low key in a midst of more chest thumping young men, he could do fairly well. Unlike what Jeff says, I don’t think his being the only black man on the show is a detriment to him whatsoever. Interestingly he made the same references about Rory last season and how it may work against him when in reality that is not what caused Rory to leave. I do not think he is an early boot but I’m not sure about the end result.

Ashlee From what I glean here, Ashlee apparently will use sex appeal as Jeff makes a point of bringing this up in an attempt to make her feel at a cross roads. Since I am surmising there will be flirting going on, I will assume she will be part of it. She will be fun to watch says Jeff but something about his synopsis doesn’t say longevity to me. I don’t think she makes it far into this game

Bobby Jon Another flirt coming in. The advantage he will have is he is in a majority of younger people but since there are other younger men out there who appear to me to be more stable in longevity I don’t know how he will fare long term. This type of attitude could bother anyone if all play and no work. I don’t initially like him long term

Caryn She sounds great on paper doesn’t she? “Moms do okay on this show” Jeff was very positive about Lisa as a mom as well but then again the mechanics of last season were very different. She is one of the older people which may hurt her due to numbers however an older person can go far in the game even in those circumstances. If she goes fairly early it may simply be about the age factor

Angie Jeff makes a point about her being/looking different though she may mesh well if, as Jeff states, she socially adapts. I’m sure some of the young ladies who are very into themselves physically may have a thing or two to say about her because physical appearance does play a part (and I'm sure the young guys out there will be looking at some of the other women first) I’m not sure about Angie; but she already has something going in against her perhaps. It doesn’t look good for her.

Coby Jeff speaks highly of him and humor is ALWAYS a good thing. I think both sexes will like him until perhaps a certain point. Can he handle the elements and will his humor go south if he can’t?. I find it interesting that Jeff used the same words for him as Chris ”If he’s as good as he thinks he is....... With nothing more than our initial observations, I like him for doing pretty well though

Jonathon Again interesting how he uses dark horse He used this for Brook as well but again the mechanics were different. Jeff doesn’t say much about Jonathon; while I don’t know how far he makes it, not saying much about him may indicate his being able to ride for awhile.

Kate Well she certainly looks like Jenna Lewis and sounds like her personality could match. Why is it a male jokester is fun to be around but a woman jokester ends up annoying everyone? Only a feeling on my part but what worked for people like Rob C. sometimes isn’t as “accepted” when a woman does it. I’m not sure about her but I’m not positive about her stay in the game being for any length of time

Kim She certainly has the physical attributes to help her with the men but will that hurt her with some women? Catty behavior among good looking women can be a problem. For lack of any further information other than Jeff discussing her learning Arabic, I think she can last for awhile purely from a physical appearance standpoint and Jeff’s nod of approval that she may approach this game very open

Stephanie I like Stephanie and I’m not sure why. Based on Jeff’s description and her appearance, she “looks” like she could appeal to everyone on the show, the younger women, the older women and both age groups of men. She reminds me of Shawna in that capacity; cute and potentially dangerous but disarming where you don’t worry about her. I think she has longevity.

Tom Tom sounds like a dream and he may be one of the only “elder” people to get past the danger zone he still has bad odds. He may be an unfortunate casualty of war however I do think the younger men could accept him willingly as he will provide the father image which is a positive. Unfortunately those who are in the elder group, I have initial concerns about. He may be a latter boot but not make to jury.

Wanda Well in my honest opinion if there is any clear indicator as a typical first boot, Wanda could fit this bill. What I found interesting was Jeff’s description in that she could have a Lillian situation. What he failed to expand upon is that Lillian had the opportunity to come back and Wanda will not. With a makeup of mostly young coupled with this “wacky” behavior, it doesn’t bode well for this woman. She already has obstacles and her personality doesn’t seem like it will help. I recall how bizarre Peter appeared to his tribe and to the viewers; that type of behavior is a no no

Willard While we can ascertain the first boots typically are the obnoxious, the sick, the old or those who are not trying to be social, I will go out on a limb and believe that Willard will be there after the first episode however, how long thereafter I’m not optimistic. They may very well like him but will the tribe he is on after perhaps losing two challenges want to keep a potential liability? With the younger people in the majority it is logical to conclude older people may be the targets therefore I cannot believe at this time he does well.

Gregg Jeff couldn’t figure out Rory either. He questions Gregg’s social ability however if he is on the winning tribe he’ll certainly be able to make it to merge IF he doesn’t alienate people. I don’t have a clear feeling on him yet but he should last somewhat long enough because it seems that there are other young men out there who may go before him. Once individual he can do very well

Ian We have another fun guy in the midst which is again a positive. Jeff flip flops in his opinion not giving us too much but I will at this time assume that he will be someone that the women will gravitate towards as being their “buddy” and the older people will enjoy him which will serve him well

James Well “rednecks” never fare too badly in this game but I am more used to seeing the older rednecks than younger ones. I don’t think he will make it to get to jury and while he is “a great character” to me, those who are literally “characters” don’t win the game but he will no doubt get quite a lot of air time.

Janu I think she will be lucky to make merger. Naturally perceptions are colored by how one “appears” to another etc. A Vegas show girl on Survivor. Physically fit notwithstanding it would not surprise me that she will attempt to throw herself into this game and get dirty but then allow her surroundings to annoy her completely. Without anything but gut instincts to go on, I see her leaving earlier than later

Jolanda A very positive description by Jeff but may be too intimidating for her own good. Her downfall may be simply a numbers game as she is still in the “older” group or it could be a clear reason in that she could probably beat all the women and a lot of the men individually. Threats are dangerous . In addition if she sees someone being picked on, or an injustice occurring her nature may get the best of her. She may cost herself her own game. The question for her remains if she can get past the “hard part” Once individual, she could certainly keep herself there for a while.

Jennifer Again, she will certainly have no problem with the men. While there could always be dirty looks by some less than secure women she has the wiles to be passed over if she lacks in any other area. I would suggest she is safe for awhile

Jeff An underdog favorite of Jeff. Will he jump right into the flirting as well? Perhaps one of the earlier of the young men boots, I’m not sure. Many of these younger men will be perplexing but he isn’t in a minority so he shouldn’t do horrific but I don’t know about jury.

With that, I am anticipating and hoping for everyone’s observations since we now have more to go on with these players. With just a brief look, the elders this time may not prevail and while a lot of these men and women are blending into one another there appears to be a few that may stand out but I don’t have a good feeling for those who are older. However, one or two may squeak by if people like Ashlee, Angie, Katie or James can’t conform enough to not be a target.



  Top

  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Brownroach 01-27-05 1
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Flowerpower 01-27-05 2
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Bebo 01-27-05 3
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 01-28-05 4
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... aethelstan 01-31-05 5
       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... ohmyheck 01-31-05 6
           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... aethelstan 01-31-05 7
               RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... stonedog 02-01-05 8
                   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... DRONES 02-02-05 10
                       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... aethelstan 02-02-05 12
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... echogirl 02-01-05 9
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... DRONES 02-02-05 11
 Introductory videos are up Brownroach 02-02-05 13
   Was just coming to post this PhoenixMons 02-02-05 14
       RE: Was just coming to post this Brownroach 02-02-05 16
           RE: Was just coming to post this PhoenixMons 02-02-05 17
               RE: Was just coming to post this Brownroach 02-02-05 19
                   RE: Was just coming to post this PhoenixMons 02-02-05 20
                       RE: Was just coming to post this Brownroach 02-02-05 21
                           RE: Was just coming to post this Jerrethan 02-02-05 23
   RE: Introductory videos are up Krautboy 02-02-05 15
       RE: Introductory videos are up VerucaSalt 02-02-05 18
           RE: Introductory videos are up Krautboy 02-02-05 22
               RE: Introductory videos are up Flowerpower 02-03-05 24
   Interview thoughts FesterFan1 02-03-05 25
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... applejack93 02-03-05 26
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... RyrieRae 02-04-05 27
   RE: TV GUIDE Preview KLicK 02-06-05 28
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... cuon10 02-07-05 29
   Episode One VerucaSalt 02-18-05 30
       RE: Episode One emydi 02-18-05 31
       RE: Episode One Brownroach 02-18-05 32
           RE: Episode One VerucaSalt 02-18-05 33
       RE: Episode One LookeeLoo 02-18-05 34
           RE: Episode One Loree 02-18-05 35
               RE: Episode One volsfan 02-19-05 36
                   RE: Episode One VerucaSalt 02-19-05 37
                       RE: Episode One Flowerpower 02-19-05 39
                           RE: Episode One dreamerbeliever 02-19-05 40
                               RE: Episode One michel 02-21-05 46
                       RE: Episode One Brownroach 02-22-05 53
                           RE: Episode One Flowerpower 02-22-05 54
               RE: Episode One PepeLePew13 02-19-05 38
                   RE: Episode One Wheezy 02-22-05 56
           RE: Episode One braveheart 02-24-05 60
       RE: Episode One DRONES 02-21-05 41
           RE: Episode One VerucaSalt 02-21-05 42
               RE: Episode One biancaxxx 02-21-05 43
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... KObrien_fan 02-21-05 44
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... redbeard103152 02-21-05 45
       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... emydi 02-21-05 47
           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... redbeard103152 02-21-05 48
               RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Whole Lotta Rosie 02-22-05 50
           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 02-24-05 61
   James is my early pick sorgee 02-21-05 49
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... aethelstan 02-22-05 51
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... KObrien_fan 02-22-05 52
       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Devious Weasel 02-22-05 55
           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 02-23-05 57
       On the flipside... television 02-23-05 58
           RE: On the flipside... confab 02-23-05 59
               Episode Two VerucaSalt 02-25-05 62
                   Coby aethelstan 02-25-05 63
                   RE: Episode Two memacmur 02-25-05 64
                       RE: Episode Two VerucaSalt 02-25-05 65
                           RE: Episode Two michel 02-25-05 66
                               RE: Episode Two Devious Weasel 02-25-05 68
                           RE: Episode Two jkokoj 02-25-05 67
                           RE: Episode Two memacmur 02-25-05 69
                               RE: Episode Two volsfan 02-25-05 70
                   RE: Episode Two Krautboy 02-27-05 77
                   RE: Episode Two LookeeLoo 02-28-05 81
 The Tribes, The Editing Devious Weasel 02-25-05 71
   RE: The Tribes, The Editing DRONES 02-28-05 79
       RE: The Tribes, The Editing JazzyJax 03-02-05 91
 Episode 2 emydi 02-25-05 72
   RE: Episode 2 Whole Lotta Rosie 02-25-05 73
       Ian vs Tom... Risti 02-26-05 74
           RE: Ian vs Tom... Loree 02-26-05 75
   RE: Episode 2 Flowerpower 02-26-05 76
       Irony Krautboy 02-28-05 78
       RE: Episode 2 Brownroach 02-28-05 80
           RE: Episode 2 VerucaSalt 03-01-05 82
               RE: Episode 2 Brownroach 03-01-05 83
               Eyemail: Episode 2 emydi 03-01-05 84
                   RE: Eyemail: Episode 2 forehead 03-01-05 85
                       RE: Eyemail: Episode 2 Brownroach 03-01-05 86
               Adding to the J or K boot talk - or... kingfish 03-01-05 87
               RE: Episode 2 DRONES 03-01-05 88
                   RE: Episode 2 braveheart 03-02-05 90
 Pre - Episode 3 LookeeLoo 03-02-05 89
   RE: Pre - Episode 3 VerucaSalt 03-04-05 92
       I *heart* VS!!! emydi 03-04-05 93
       Excellent post macamrox 03-04-05 94
       RE: Pre - Episode 3 redbeard103152 03-04-05 95
           RE: Pre - Episode 3 kingfish 03-04-05 96
               RE: Episode Four Boots? VerucaSalt 03-05-05 97
                   RE: Episode Four Boots? redbeard103152 03-05-05 98
                   RE: Episode Four Boots? kingfish 03-06-05 100
                   RE: Episode Four Boots? Brownroach 03-07-05 106
       RE: Pre - Episode 3 applejack93 03-06-05 99
           RE: Pre - Episode 3 Whole Lotta Rosie 03-06-05 101
               RE: Pre - Episode 3 sylvester 03-06-05 102
               RE: Pre - Episode 3 Flowerpower 03-06-05 103
                   RE: Pre - Episode 3 PepeLePew13 03-14-05 114
       RE: Pre - Episode 3 DRONES 03-07-05 104
           RE: Pre - Episode 3 VerucaSalt 03-07-05 105
               RE: Pre - Episode 3 LookeeLoo 03-07-05 107
                   RE: Pre - Episode 3 Brownroach 03-08-05 108
                       RE: Challenge Thoughs VerucaSalt 03-08-05 109
 Coby's story not over? LibraRising 03-11-05 110
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... DRONES 03-13-05 111
   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... redbeard103152 03-13-05 112
       Tom's edit LibraRising 03-14-05 113
           Episode Four VerucaSalt 03-14-05 115
               RE: Episode Four ADKer 03-14-05 117
               Ian and the "RAT" emydi 03-14-05 118
               RE: Episode Four Gothmog 03-14-05 119
               RE: Episode Four bobscure 03-14-05 120
               RE: Episode Four DRONES 03-14-05 121
   James' edit kingfish 03-14-05 116
 Merged Tribe location applejack93 03-15-05 122
   RE: Merged Tribe location VerucaSalt 03-15-05 123
       RE: Merged Tribe location Round Robin 03-15-05 124
           RE: Merged Tribe location VerucaSalt 03-15-05 125
               RE: Merged Tribe location emydi 03-16-05 126
                   RE: Merged Tribe location VerucaSalt 03-16-05 127
                       RE: Merged Tribe location redbeard103152 03-16-05 128
 Episode 5. aethelstan 03-17-05 129
   RE: Episode 5. Brownroach 03-17-05 130
       RE: Episode 5. kingfish 03-17-05 131
   RE: Episode 5. Bebo 03-17-05 132
   RE: Episode 5. Loree 03-17-05 133
       RE: Episode 5. VerucaSalt 03-17-05 136
           RE: Episode 5. LibraRising 03-17-05 142
           RE: Episode 5. DRONES 03-21-05 151
   RE: Episode 5. LibraRising 03-17-05 134
       RE: Episode 5. michel 03-17-05 135
           RE: Episode 5. TanNymph 03-17-05 137
               RE: Episode 5. Brownroach 03-17-05 138
                   RE: Episode 5. Peachezz 03-17-05 141
           RE: Episode 5. sorgee 03-17-05 139
               RE: Episode 5. memacmur 03-17-05 140
                   RE: Episode 5. VerucaSalt 03-18-05 143
                       RE: Episode 5. Risti 03-18-05 144
                       RE: Episode 5. Brownroach 03-18-05 145
                           RE: Episode 5. Whole Lotta Rosie 03-19-05 146
                               RE: Episode 5. Loquatrix 03-20-05 148
                                   RE: Steph, Jenn, Ian television 03-20-05 149
                               RE: Episode 5. Brownroach 03-21-05 152
 RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Loree 03-20-05 147
   idle chatter kingfish 03-20-05 150
       RE: idle chatter VerucaSalt 03-23-05 153
           RE: idle chatter Surviette 03-23-05 154
           RE: idle chatter KLicK 03-26-05 156
 Episode 6 DRONES 03-25-05 155
   RE: Episode 6 Flowerpower 03-26-05 157
       RE: Episode 6 redbeard103152 03-26-05 158
           RE: Episode 6 emydi 03-26-05 159
               RE: Episode 6 VerucaSalt 03-28-05 160
                   RE: Episode 6 DRONES 03-28-05 161
                       RE: Episode 6 Whole Lotta Rosie 03-29-05 162
 BJ's edit mavsfan 03-30-05 163
   RE: BJ's edit VerucaSalt 03-30-05 164
       RE: BJ's edit Round Robin 03-30-05 165
       RE: BJ's edit knuckles487 03-31-05 166
           RE: BJ's edit steemerman 03-31-05 167
               Episode 7 VerucaSalt 04-01-05 168
                   RE: Episode 7 sylvester 04-01-05 169
                       RE: Episode 7 michel 04-01-05 170
                   But didn't Tom say JohnMc 04-01-05 171
                       RE: But didn't Tom say kingfish 04-01-05 173
                           RE: But didn't Tom say emydi 04-01-05 174
                               RE: But didn't Tom say kingfish 04-01-05 177
                       RE: But didn't Tom say gwrbassin 04-01-05 175
                           RE: But didn't Tom say Monte71 04-01-05 186
                       RE: But didn't Tom say Loree 04-01-05 176
                           RE: But didn't Tom say gwrbassin 04-01-05 178
                               RE: But didn't Tom say Loree 04-01-05 185
                       RE: But didn't Tom say Devious Weasel 04-01-05 184
                       RE: But didn't Tom say watermelon 04-02-05 188
                   RE: Episode 7 emydi 04-01-05 172
                       RE: Episode 7 TanNymph 04-01-05 181
                           RE: Episode 7 emydi 04-01-05 182
                   RE: Episode 7 dreamerbeliever 04-01-05 179
                       RE: Episode 7 emydi 04-01-05 180
                       RE: Episode 7 VerucaSalt 04-01-05 183
                   Gregg and Jen KObrien_fan 04-01-05 187
                       RE: Gregg and Jen applejack93 04-03-05 189
                   RE: Episode 7 zazzy 04-03-05 190
                       RE: Episode 7 Whole Lotta Rosie 04-03-05 191
                           RE: Episode 7 DRONES 04-04-05 192
                               RE: Episode 7 Loree 04-04-05 195
       RE: BJ's edit DRONES 04-04-05 193
           RE: BJ's edit VerucaSalt 04-04-05 194
               RE: BJ's edit Whole Lotta Rosie 04-04-05 196
                   Ian's Plan LookeeLoo 04-05-05 197
                       RE: Ian's Plan Loree 04-06-05 198
 The music BEHIND the action applejack93 04-06-05 199
   themes littletown 04-06-05 200
       RE: themes applejack93 04-07-05 201
           RE: themes VerucaSalt 04-07-05 202
           RE: themes kary1371 04-07-05 203
               RE: themes applejack93 04-08-05 204
 The Editing of Jenn and Strategies ... PepeLePew13 04-08-05 205

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Brownroach 15340 desperate attention whore postings
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01-27-05, 11:00 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I'll come play in your thread since you beat me by a minute in posting this.

(More vidcaps at Fever here, of them hanging around camp. Jeff's assessments are from before the game started.)



Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-27-05, 01:33 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
VS! Great to see you back in action! As usual, I think you have assessed the situation with great accuracy! I do think that the quest of Palau will be to change the outcome seen in Vanuatu...the elders of the tribe, I'm afraid, won't be long for this game. With so many physically fit and beautiful people, the weaker links will be disposed of quickly!

It will really be fun to watch the initial episode for those that vie for leadership....I wonder how many dominant leader-types there are with this group. They seem to be a bunch of intelligent over-achievers, and I suspect there will be alot of manipulation and power plays. I think the weakest physically will be off quicker than the elders will be, albeit, that some of the oldest may be the physically weakest as well. Wanda, imo, is a sitting duck.

So upon eliminating the physically weak and then the oldest, I look for the young, inexperienced, and naive to be the next group to go. Of course if the members of these three groups can get it together quick enough to align with each other ...who knows.

It will be very interesting how the World War II theme enters into the game. Right off the bat I get a feeling that an under the radar player will take this game! Can't wait for it to begin, and I look forward to the pages and pages ahead to read regarding the players, the game, and the editing!

Can't wait, Fp

Ps. My initial prediction on the first two eliminated are Wanda and Ashlee, fwiw!



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Bebo 21075 desperate attention whore postings
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01-27-05, 03:37 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Phenomenal as usual, VS.

One more quote stuck out at me - about Kim:

And this is a girl who went out and learned Arabic (laughs) simply to understand why we’re at war.

With all of the war emphasis, this statement could hold significance too. She's the type who's going to be trying to understand the game and the alliances, and won't be a shoot from the hip type. Her decisions will be thought-out and deliberate.


I make this look good.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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01-28-05, 02:33 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
BR it isn't often that I beat you to the punch

fp and bebo I knew I could count on you both to lend an early hand.

fp your initial boot selections are pretty close to my thoughts. Wanda seems like a "shoe in"; as for the second, I have a couple in mind.

bebo interesting correlation you make with the theme of this season. We should watch her to see whether or not her actions can play a part and if Jeff is noting them for that reason.

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aethelstan 4433 desperate attention whore postings
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01-31-05, 10:11 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
That could also be a dangerous thing to admit to or even not to admit to.

For example, I imagine that many topics are covered in conversation. If, at any point in time, politics and war come into the conversation and the majority of the survivors are very pro-war in Iraq or even remotely distrustful of things linked to Arabs/Muslims, then she could, by expressing even an interest in hearing the other side, be seen as being 'againt them' and not 'for them'.

Still, I'm impressed at her interest and commitment to doing just that. I think it speaks volumes for her character.


©Kittyloaf Creations, 2004
Winter warning in effect.

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ohmyheck 1919 desperate attention whore postings
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01-31-05, 01:47 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I believe that an Ibrehem-Kim alliance is very possible because of the Arabic, he's Muslim thing.
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aethelstan 4433 desperate attention whore postings
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01-31-05, 04:00 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
On the other hand, high on EPMB's irony scale, we may discover that Ibrehem speaks no Arabic whatsoever, doesn't read the news much and is a non-practicing Muslim.

Even if he does, he may claim he doesn't to distance himself from the 'anyone who speaks Arabic must be bad' crowd.



©Kittyloaf Creations, 2004
Winter warning in effect.

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stonedog 2 desperate attention whore postings
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02-01-05, 04:21 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Though it's quite possible Iberhem does read/speak Arabic (who's to know if it's the same dialect Kim knows) but if you notice in his photos, he has a tattoo in Arabic text on his right arm.
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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-02-05, 04:56 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I have a tattoo on my arm with Korean writing on it and the only part of that language I know is related to my martial art.

DRONES

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aethelstan 4433 desperate attention whore postings
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02-02-05, 11:36 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Ha-na, dul, set, net!

I can read Korean but I don't know the language (much). That is, I've learned what the characters say but not the meaning behind them (unless it's an English loan-word or a something from my limited vocabulary - like hwajangshil)

Well, with regard to all our speculation, it will be interesting to see what actually happens but we still have to wait over 2 weeks!

~aethelstan

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echogirl 2120 desperate attention whore postings
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02-01-05, 06:15 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
LAST EDITED ON 02-01-05 AT 06:17 AM (EST)

I think this cast and the anticipated twist are specifically designed to allow the physically fit younger males to fare better in this game. The war theme does suggest the strongest will survive, and I'm sure they would like to see 3-4 strong, young men to make the merge. One only becomes an early target if they alienate themselves from the other young men. I think the one younger guy who might do this early is Bobby Jon if he becomes overly obsessed with himself and flirting with the women. I could see one or two going right before the merge, but otherwise I think most are pretty safe. Tom is only 40 and physically fit, so I don't see him as an early target. I get a good vibe from Willard, but if the challenges are indeed physical they might not keep him around long.

As for the women? Seems like half intend on using a sex appeal or flirting strategy so I expect some catfights. When and who I don't know, but since the tribes will be mixed I don't see a "pretty girl" alliance here. It's totally going to backfire on some which may allow someone else to slip by. Wanda seems to be an obvious first boot. The oldest woman, outspoken and quirky. Not a good combination. No matter how hard she works, there will be little reason to keep her around. Caryn looks physically fit, but if she comes across more like a bossy attorney than a motherly figure then she won't last long either. Angie doesn't seem to fit in, but may be able to slip through if the catfights happen early. Janu? Showgirl or not, she's one of the older women and may be on the outside too. Jolanda appears to be one of the more athletic women which should help her immensely if she isn't too outspoken. Kim and Stephenie appear to have a lot going for them as well. I also think Katie could go far if she is indeed as engaging as Jeff suggests. Think Sandra.

I'm really looking forward to this season.

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-02-05, 05:57 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Great job VS.
The deck is definately stacked against the older players. That is not to say that there isn't room for an elder role model.

A successful pairing on this show has beeen the man woman alliance especially of the old and young variety. Colby/Tina, Ethan/Kim, Pappy/Liz and RoMber. These pairings were more than just alliance partners. They leaned on each other for support.

I believe that at least one older player will make it to the final 4.

The dynamic of having everyone start out without a tribe should prove interesting especially with alliances. We know that the young good looking women tend to stick together.

A few players that stick out:
Ashlee like many before her lacks any life experience. She'll gain alot from the people she meets but she is going to eaten alive by the game.
Caryn could be dangerous player if she stays low key. She has lots of experience and as a mother of 3 could fit in the role of den mother well.
Angie could surprise. If she becomes the target of undeserved teasing then she could wind up being an underdog that is protected.
Could Coby = RobC? Just a thought.
Kim with her looks and listening skills should help her. She seems extremely caring and that could work against her. This game is not for the faint of heart. She may end up being someones pawn like Julie was last season.
Iaw with his size is going to stick out. He reminds me of Mitchell.
Jolanda would be smart to down play her physical abilities, especially early on. Her goal should be to lay low and work an alliance with one of the men. Some fast enough to almost make the Olympics should be interesting. This won't do her a lot of good in the swimming challanges though.


DRONES

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Brownroach 15340 desperate attention whore postings
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02-02-05, 12:16 PM (EST)
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13. "Introductory videos are up"
LAST EDITED ON 02-02-05 AT 12:17 PM (EST)

SurvivorShrine has the transcripts posted here and here.

Angie Jakusz

I work in a bar that you know the beer and the shot kind, none of that chi-chi fancy cocktail nonsense you know. People are like, what's a good drink, a Budweiser draft. What do you mean what's a good drink? I am really silly and I have the freak factor working for me, I stick out, like I am the only woman who has ever looked like this on Survivor. I am a hard worker, I'm a hard worker, very organized, you know, I don't leave a job until it is done and I think that will be one of my really strong points in terms of toughness. I don't know, I kinda sorta excited to see how diabolical but I do have the evil haha emotion down so I don't know if that will help me. I am actually a really horrible liar, so this is kinda gonna be a challenge for me to see if I can be a better liar.


Ashlee Ashby

I am very goal driven and I do have my hates and desires and that is priority most of the time. My sexuality, and being seen as a sex symbol, it's a good thing, of course it's a good thing. I think that every women wants to be perceived as sexy. I think it will hinder me maybe with the women, they could see that as a threat to themselves. I am a member of the Church of Jesus Christ the Latter Day Saints. Being a member of my church has instilled me with the qualities of being dedicated and committed. People would almost perceive me to be as loud and crazy and not have the morals and standards that I do, they are astonished to believe that oh yea right, you're Mormon and you haven't had sex, and yet you have huge humongous breasts and dress sexy. I like to have a fun and I can have a good time, and I can accept different views and opinions and I am very open minded but that in no way will alter my own morals and views and standards. It's so hard for me to kiss a gorgeous guy and get all hot and heated and then tell him hold on and say stop, that's all we can do. I would describe myself as being very happy, flirtatious, and fun yet at the same time, I am very dedicated and stubborn.

Bobby Jon Drinkard

I am just a boy from Troy, Alabama and born and raised down there and raised on fishing ponds and hunting deer and catching catfish and you know getting in a truck and seeing how fast you can go and try to wreck it, I don't know. My plan has not changed from what I have been doing so far, it's gotten me this far. I am not going to change, not going to change, definitely not going to push the envelope too hard because you scare people away, but you know for the most part be me, be who I am and definitely stick my hand out there, put forth a little effort to making alliances, I think sometimes people like to coast, and I am not going to coast. These m60s are I got here are waiting for everyone to get a little piece of. I am a strong Christians a lot of the things that I do a lot of the ways that I act are from the Bible, that's the way I try to live my life. I don't always going to live like that, I am not going to get on this show and live like that. I am going to have people think that I am the biggest you know what, but you know what though, but they just gonna have to call me, because when I rest my head down to God and I have a little conversation, we get it squared and way and make it straight and the next the sun comes up and we keep on doing it. I am going to cuddle it up with the ladies cause I like to flirt but that's flirting is fun man, nothing wrong is flirting, just having a good time, you know look good, you know what's going on, it puts a smile on people's face.

Caryn Groedel

I would describe myself as lucky, hard working, ambitious and fun loving. I didn't have abusive parents, but they were very very strict. And we had to do everything just right, we had to be good at what we did, and we had to give 110%, my parents would not accept anything less that, and that is what defined me from my youth. And what defines me as an adult is having three daughters. I think I am perceived as being really really really tough. You know in my law profession, people say stay away from her, you don't want to try a case against her. But little do they know, that I have fears, and I cry, I am a softie. I think I am very persuasive, I've only lost two jury trials in my career and I think I am can be very persuasive. I think that being an attorney will help me in several ways. First of all because I have a keen insight into people which I have learned from being an attorney selecting jurors to be on my jury when I try a case, so the keen insight is one thing and also, the ability to persuade is another aspect of being an attorney. I am going to go far in this game, that I can assure you.

Coby Archa

I became the funny guy out of sheer defense because being the gawky, gay kid on the playground you to had something going your way, so mine was my sense of humor. I came out when I was 15, to my mom, who had a brother who actually died of AIDS so that's how the subject was approached, so it was very easy for me to come out quite honestly, and it has never been a problem, even when I was little though, preschool, people have always known I was a gay. Originally I was going to turn the girls on the boys, being the obvious gay guy thing to do. But through the process, I have learned a lot about myself. I've learned that I basically, I think I am going to have attached myself to one or two people that I really like that really know everything that I am doing and I'll push us to the top and lie cheat and steal everybody else. I spent some time in jail when I was young because as a troubled teenager but I think that will help me in the game to be honest because I know what it is like to be secluded and away from your family. There was also a time in my life where I was homeless, so I had to sleep in the streets for a little while, I know what it feels like to sleep in an alley, in a cardboard box and have a rat crawl on you. I think me being flamboyant is going to help me in the game, oooh it's going to help me. Because I am going to be down by the beach, braiding some girl's hair, sticking flowers in her hair, and all the jocks are gonna be up by the camp and they are gonna be like there is that fag playing with her hair but little do they know while I am over there braiding her hair, I am going to be plotting who will I be taking off next. So I definitely am going to use their prejudices against them in the game. I think my mouth can get me into a lot of trouble in this game to be quite honest, I hope that it doesn't always get me in trouble, I am sure moments where my mouth will shoot off and hopefully it will be at the right time so they won't hold it against . I will shoot my mouth, that's a given, I am too expressive but hopefully I won't go around screaming at people all day long.

Gregg Carey

I manage you know, several types of projects, everything from projects meeting with CEOS to help them find corporate objectives, help them find roadmaps or plans for three to five years, I also manage large scale global communication projects. I am an athlete, in addition growing up and playing sports, high school sports, I play college football (mumbles other sporting activities) and continuing that athletic endeavor with adventure racing. I am the type of guy from a personality perspective, I like to hang out with my family and friends I prefer a good dinner and good conversation over a loud night at the bar where you forget everything. I like quality time, one on one, I like to get to know people, I like flirting with people, I think from the outside I have had a good life, there is nothing I can really complain about good health, good family, done well on school, work. I am pretty hard on myself, and it stresses me out a lot. It just eats me up on a day to day basis but I keep a lot of that to myself and it could be a cause for a lot of stress sometimes.

Ian Rosenberger

Last year, I got to spend a year as a student government president at Penn state which was a blast. But I got a lot of applicable skills that I learned last year that will help me here, dealing with people, and learning what it means to have someone stagger in the back. I always said that I can talk a fat man out of his bag Doritos, you know what I mean. I think this game will come natural to me, being outside is something that I am used to being with folks and people, and learning the intricacies of community thought and group dynamics work into it, something that I have always loved to do. I love to flirt and that is going to be a big part of the game. Obviously not lying, cheating, and stealing is like not collecting the 200 dollars when you pass go in Monopoly. It's just part of it. You do what you can do to play a classic game, you do what you can to make sure you don't other things, you know when it comes down to it, everybody else is going to do it to you. I am probably the most competitive guy that I have ever met that nobody would know if they were talking to me. I kinda play it off as a happy go lucky dude. I try to be as upfront as possible. Underneath I am pretty competitive. It's just a matter of seeing what the tribes need, where do I need to go next, in order to get to the next level. I am going to be aggressive with it and use all the things that I have, I think time will tell, I am going to use what I have to get to the next round.

Ibrehem Rahman

I think I am a fairly interesting person and I think that I thought I would be a pretty good competitor, or at least I was able persuade them to think so. It's important to definitely feel the people out that you are in this game with because I guess you could say they have the power of the pen, and that could affect you winning the million. I think it is important to be able to keep some good standing with the people you are on the team with or you're playing the game with. It is important to be very very competitive and of course to be a little conniving, it is a game. I like to have fun, I like to laugh, I don't like to be serious all the time. I get a little over passionate, over zealous, if I really want to get something done, I can kinda be a little tough on people, I have never been a big camper but I don't think it will be a problem for me.

James Miller

I am ******** redneck, damn right, I am come here to steal the show. That's what I am here to do, take a million dollars and pay off some debts because I am a broke #####. A lot of people think rednecks are racists but we aint, it's the skinheads that are racists. We are the ones that just want to drink beer, get stoned and hang out with our wives and our kids that's all, that's all we wanna do. You know not drink with our kids of course, family guy, mow the lawn, smokes cigarettes, that's all we do. I am a hard talker, I am head strong, people are going to be scared at first, but accept me. I am going to be the first redneck to win a million dollars on this show. Characteristics of a real redneck: Got to be able to drink some beer. Got to be able to choose a back up? You got to have a wife that is a stripper. Your kids have to be able to mow the lawn before they are five years old. That's a fact. You have to drive a pickup truck that has a lot of miles on it, and it's gotta have a big ol dent on the hood. Your house, you in debt, you never own it rednecks rent, they don't buy, it's cheaper to rent, so they can be like gypsies and move around. They are going to think I am dumb, because most rednecks don't go to college, they just go to work at the steel mill and get drunk all the time. So yea, they are going to think that I am dumb and I am idiot. If I win a million dollars, first thing I am going to do with thatI am going to buy a nice spread, will fornicate with her, then we are going to go out pay for the tuitions, buy a few vehicles for the kids, they are going to need it when they get older because I will be broke again, buy me a new truck.

Janu Tornell

To be a Folies-Bergère showgirl, it's very exciting. I've been doing it for 9 1/2 years, fell into it by fluke, by accident, was not thinking of doing that. I am kinda of a legacy, my mother was a showgirl in Cuba. Left her island, traveled, ended up in Las Vegas in the rat pack years, however, I never thought of being a showgirl, it just kinda happened. When I tell people that I am showgirl, topless is one of the first questions that they want to know about. Face it, sex sells, we live in a country that sex is very open and in your face. However, there is a side of the world, United States, whatever country you may be in, that it's taboo. Part of my strategy, I kinda know, I know that I won't be the leader, the know it all, because I am not the know it all, I don't do that in life anyway. I won't be a bitchy one, #####, #####, #####, #####. I am not here to make friends, I know it's been said before, but I didn't come all the way to make friends, I came here to win a million dollars and to be the showgirl turned Survivor. This is what I am, so if I can be sexy and appeal to someone, then I am going to sex appeal everyone that I can.

Jeff Wilson

I have a decent amount of experience with certain things that could help me out on the island, not nature-wise, just being outdoors. I love to fish, I am always hiking, I am always outdoors. Being that I am 21, I think that may give other people a pretty bad disposition of me. Their impression of me is probably gonna be a little off. Whether I walk away the first guy voted off which won't happen or I win the million bucks, I want to get in the fire department. My life up to this point I would say has been a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10. I enjoy the way my whole life has gone, good and bad, they have all led up to very important things. Day to day, I am a personal trainer, I have very flexible hours, I have a lot of free time, I enjoy doing everything I enjoy doing, I have plenty of time to do whatever I want to do, and that keeps me happy everyday I wake up being happy. I think the biggest thing that surprises me about being a personal trainer is that people generally for the most part don't really care about their health. Some people do, and they get a personal trainer and that's them trying to take a step in the right direction, but for the most part, if you calculate the amount of people at the gym and the amount of people in your town, it's nowhere near. I'd say it's the most important part of living. Anything that I am fascinated with, anything I am intrigued with, I won't stop until I have it, or conquer it. I can guarantee you that I will work harder for the money than anybody.


Jennifer Lyon

I plan on flirting a lot with the guys but also trying to make good friends with the girls too because that could be really difficult and that probably going to be my hardest thing and you know, just making a good, strong alliance that will help carry me to the end. But I plan on helping everyone and being everyone's best friend. The nanny thing, I think I've used the analogy, it a lot like a tribe. You go into the tribe, this family, you try to make yourself useful, to this family and yea, you can get kicked off, it's very much like that: making relationships, being able to blend in, being able to succeed. My secret is going to be getting by on being well rounded, being able to find something in familiar, in common with each person. I will be underestimated, I don't think I look like I can sleep on the ground, and eat bugs if I have to, I don't think people will know that about me. I am a fighter and I grew up camping outdoors all the time, I'm going to hang in there until the very end. Being one of the more attractive people, it will be a challenge to just the right amount of flirting, and not doing it and stepping on other peoples' toes.

Jolanda Jones

I have a lot of athletic accomplishments, a lot of academic accomplishments, a lot of civic accomplishments, and I just think it's a unique combination. I was the oldest of the five siblings and I was responsible for caring for them, and I was looking for anything to keep me out of the house. And athletics was one of the ways I could stay out of the house longer. Turns out I was very good. I ended up winning (insert lots of awards). As a criminal defense lawyer, when I pick juries I've gotta figure out how to read people, especially when I cross examine witnesses and figure out their weaknesses are and exploit them and make sure the whole world sees it. My dad blew his brains out, I was in the room with him and that was one of the many bad things that happened to me. I was a year and a month, two of my dad's brothers committed suicide, so my grandmother has lost three kids to suicide. My 19 year old brother was murdered, shot 5 times, twice in the head, I got a brother in prison now, I've got a cousin in prison for murder, I got an aunt who was murdered, I've been shot at, I could continue for a good 20-30 minutes so the journey has been daunting.

Jonathan Libby

I overcame cancer this year, so that was a really challenging thing mentally, I think that is the biggest thing I have ever had to overcome in my life. At first it was probably for the first month, I was waking up everyday, telling myself, oh my god, I am 23 and I have cancer. After I finally was treated and everything and pretty much cured, it was one of those things I would wake up and put a smile on my face - I am 23 and overcame cancer that was a big step and a real positive thing and probably the best motivational thing, and that runs through my mind nonstop and now it's a big part of my life now. It makes you kind of stop and think and life is precious, you got to cherish everything, and you really can't take too many things for granite, I really don't take things for granite, I am pretty upbeat about everything, as far as spending time with my family, and stuff like that, and no one is invincible and life can be taken away from you at any moment. There's no ice with me to break, there is no breaking the ice. I take that all right out of the spectrum, I make everybody feel as comfortable with me as possible. I think I am going to play the game, just be nice to everyone, try not to make a lot of enemies, try not to burn a lot of bridges right off the bat. I think I am good at reading people and I good at manipulating, but I am not really a cruel person.

Katie Gallagher

I was a rebellious teenager, and my parents divorced when I was 11, so that was a rough time anyway and we moved so my way of fitting in was to be bad, but I have always been a little bit like a class clown. There's never been anyone like me on Survivor ever, there's never been a funny female. I know that all these people that are here are just a dynamic, interesting, diverse group of people. And that's a lot of material for Katie to handle, and I hate when people talk in third person, Katie hates that. I work pretty well under stress but I also get narcolepsy when things are overwhelming. I don't think they realize how raunchy I can be, I just say things to shock people. I am manipulative, outgoing, flexible, compassionate, sneaky, and I think that plays into my strategy, because that is my strategy, to be myself cause all of those attributes can win you the game, that is why I am perfect for this game. I am not trying to win a million dollars, I am just here to lose some weight so once I hit my goal weight I can be gone, but please don't kick me off before my goal weight.

Kimberly Mullen

I am going to use my political knowledge as far as, I think my political knowledge and international relations is going to play a big factor, and how people will form up and the position you take within in the alliance. I am able to bite my tongue when necessary, I've started doing this probably in the past couple of years because I used to never be this type of person and that's a good thing, because I can brush things off quite easily instead of wasting my energy on people I don't have to. I am spontaneous and adaptable and it's very hard to throw me off course from what I want to get. There is always the kind of nerdy tomboy growing up, and so I worked so hard in college to try and be the cool girl and but I am still just a nerdy tomboy. Unless I can get a boy to fall in my love with me, and use that to my advantage, then my luck is probably a factor because there are some hot boys here. I was always a tomboy so I have made a really big effort in the past couple of years to work on my female relationships and be more of the chick that can talk with the girls, I am always the person for some reason that people gossip to and they tell me all their issues so I think that will definitely play to my advantage.

Stephenie LaGrossa

I grew up with four older brothers, and a mom and a dad, so that was kind of tough, it's had like five fathers growing up. Instead of playing with Barbies, I was always outside playing sports, I was either the goalie, or the pitcher or the quarterback. Growing up with four older brothers has definitely helped shaped the person that I am. Instead of playing with Barbies and putting on makeup, I was outside playing sports with the boys. I am a lot of fun, and I think I am going to bring fun to the game in the stressful environment. I am just going to work hard, be myself, be outgoing, value other people's opinions and give other people mine's, and go from there. People think that I am the girl next door that you know which is a nice thing, but they realize I am very , I am a little nutty, a little crazy, I am not so calm and crazy. I have a boyfriend, he doesn't like when I get crazy, but I get crazy anyway.

Tom Westman

The most rewarding job you can ever have, I went to it as most of us guys did, because my dad is on the job too, it tends to be a family business, it's not because your parents are telling you to get rich doing this, but because they have had a rich life doing, it's just a rewarding experience, a lot of time at home with your family. I like my job. I like my job, there's no two fires that are the same, there's no two circumstances in this game that are the same. We don't know what the format is going to be, what the tribe will be, everything could be different, you can't when the curve ball gets thrown, you can't stand there when it goes by, you have to react to it. I like the game, I like the kidding around in the firehouse, the fun and games and the fooling around, there's that game to be played out here, I mean there is some depravation with the food and the conditions, but you are playing a game. I think it is a good thing to be a 40 year old guy playing this game because you are not seen as a physical threat like the 25 year old guy who spends all his time in the gym and you are not seen as a liability to your tribe early on as maybe an older guy would be.


Wanda Shirk

I have always wanted to be a genuinely good person in every way, character, hard work. Life has been often difficult for me. We had some financially difficult times. My husband took a business and sold it and got into another where he thought he was going to be would be the vice president of a company and it went bankrupt. We had a lot of hard times. There was a day when the sheriff at the county came to our house and said, I hate to do this, but you haven't made your mortgage payment in six months so we have to take the house back. I think I am the kind of person that people will respect for who I am, wisdom that I bring I hope, wisdom and fun that I bring to my tribe. I want to ask questions and listen and listen and listen and show to each person on my tribe that I care about them. I want to see the good things in them but then I want to find out who has the most good things in them, the most character. I am going to almost have to be the big sister that everybody loves, maybe even the mother, although I am trying really hard to camouflage my age with the hair dye and things like that. So I hope I don't look like some old lady. ::A brief rap::


Willard Smith

I really started this, uh, as a weight loss program. And the joke got out of hand. And here I am. And now, I'm going to use it as a smoking sustention program. I don't care if I win this thing or not, I've already lost 35 pounds, got back in shape, and I'll soon be a non-smoker. So I'm here to have fun, at other people's expense. I'm not sure if there going to be advantages that come from being a lawyer, or there advantages that come from being me. I'm a good problem solver, I'm analytical, I can generally tell when people are being untruthful, and I persuade people for a living, that's what lawyers do. I'm just here, really, to have a good time. And to stop smoking. I don't need the million dollars. I'm here to last as long as I can. I'm certainly not going to let people know I'm a lawyer. Uh, I have, uh... there's an old game called "Dungeons and Dragons", you roll the dice and create a character. I have created one. I'm going to try to be non-threatening, helpful, likable, uh, until I get rid of all the people that have to be gotten rid of.



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14. "Was just coming to post this"
I think the most noteworthy thing about the videos is the length.

Ashlee's is nearly TWICE as long as the person with the next longest video (James). Ashlee's is over 3 minutes whereas no one else's is over 2 minutes long. Also Angie's is the shortest at only 49 seconds. Angie's probably doesn't mean much - she said a lot of things in her 49 seconds.

Ashlee's very long video must means something, IMO. There is no foreseeable reason to not cut out more of her video - unless we're being shown so much for a reason - her boot. As I previously predicted, I think she's toast and she's probably the one who gets the actual vote against her (and I think James and Wanda or are looking like the most likely 'never make it to the challenge' folks). Bobby Jon is probably toast within the first few episodes.


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16. "RE: Was just coming to post this"
Ashlee and Bobby Jon both give schizoid I-am-very-religious-but-also-oversexed speeches that sound like they don't have a brain in their heads. I don't expect them to last long either.


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17. "RE: Was just coming to post this"
Ashlee certainly came across as a weird one in her video - her 'non-verbalisms' were so bizarre...and she sounds almost like she's trying to convince herself of this 'story' she's creating about herself. She's gets pretty loud and forceful with some of her comments...she gets really loud and does this nervous laugh thing when she's talking about her 'sexuality' which just makes me a little suspicious...I just get a really strange vibe from her.

Bobby Jon certainly seems dense.


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19. "RE: Was just coming to post this"
I haven't seen the videos but her transcript is weird enough.

I hate to say it but I get the feeling your fave Ibee is going to be a snooze.
-- I think I am a fairly interesting person and I think that I thought I would be a pretty good competitor, or at least I was able persuade them to think so. -- WTF? LOL


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20. "RE: Was just coming to post this"
LAST EDITED ON 02-02-05 AT 04:06 PM (EST)

Watching the interviews is a must, BR. The context of what they are saying makes SO Much more sense when coupled with their non-verbal cues. Ibrehem sounds more interesting than I thought he would be based upon his bio (which makes him sound rather boring). I am also glad that he is coming across very calm and relaxed in the video - MB's not exactly known for kind editing with black males - and not at all like the stereotypes we usually see. He could turn out to be a snooze, though.

FTR, he actually says: "I think I am a fairly interesting person and I think that THEY thought that I would be a pretty good competitor, or at least I was able persuade them to think so." That's kind of a big difference, I'd say. He's talking about the producers/casting directors.

He's just the prettiest to look at for me, anyway. I'd love it if he won, but he's not my favorite in terms of personality (not yet anyway).

etf a grammatical booboo


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21. "RE: Was just coming to post this"
Thanks, I think there are probably other errors in the transcript that, if corrected, would make more sense (I changed "she she" to "chi-chi" in Angie's -- that one was obvious ).


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23. "RE: Was just coming to post this"
Ashlee's clip isn't really that long. It's less than 2 mins. long, just like everybody else's. The CBS folks made a mistake.
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15. "RE: Introductory videos are up"
Reading through the interviews, it appears that many, if not all of their previous pre-show confessionals were taken from this interview...

Wonder how and why the comments used previously were selected? Can we read anything into the selections, or were just the most interesting remarks lifted out? Were they selected to emphasize the character they will be edited as, or not?


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18. "RE: Introductory videos are up"
BR, thank you kindly for posting the interviews for additional insight on this new cast.

I tend to pick out the more psychological aspects of their interview for some insight on these people and I tend to think KB that yes, these interview comments are to give an idea of their character.


Angie Jakusz

I am really silly and I have the freak factor working for me, I am actually a really horrible liar, so this is kinda gonna be a challenge for me to see if I can be a better liar.

I'm keeping note on her being a terrible liar. That being said "freak factor" may not necessarily work for her


Ashlee Ashby

I think that every women wants to be perceived as sexy. I think it will hinder me maybe with the women, they could see that as a threat to themselves. People would almost perceive me to be as loud and crazy and not have the morals and standards that I do

Uses a lot of "I think" in her interview. Also she seems to have a very conflicted way of behaving. Her "flirtatious" ways may go overboard

Bobby Jon Drinkard

I am not going to change, not going to change, definitely not going to push the envelope too hard because you scare people away, but you know for the most part be me, be who I am and definitely stick my hand out there, put forth a little effort to making alliances, I think sometimes people like to coast, and I am not going to coast. I am going to have people think that I am the biggest you know what, I am going to cuddle it up with the ladies

Bobby doesn't sound like he even knows what he wants to do. He is not going to change. Not push the envelope. Put forth a little effort with alliances. Not going to coast and so forth. His strategy appears all over the place which I don't think bodes well

Caryn Groedel

my parents would not accept anything less that, and that is what defined me from my youth. I think I am perceived as being really really really tough. I am going to go far in this game, that I can assure you.

Caryn may do okay but there may be a locking of horns that come from her that may cause her problems. She acknowledges she may be perceived as being tough and some of these younger people may not take kindly to this

Coby Archa

I became the funny guy out of sheer defense because being the gawky, gay kid on the playground you to had something going your way, so mine was my sense of humor. I think I am going to have attached myself to one or two people that I really like that really know everything that I am doing and I'll push us to the top and lie cheat and steal everybody else. I think my mouth can get me into a lot of trouble in this game to be quite honest, I hope that it doesn't always get me in trouble, I am too expressive but hopefully I won't go around screaming at people all day long.

Coby's biggest asset right now is the women. As stereotypical as this may sound, women love to be friends with gay men especially if there are other men who are puffing their chests out a lot. He may have problems with some of the men and it appears he may get dramatic but if he is safely insulated with the women, he is in a good position

Gregg Carey

I like to get to know people, I like flirting with people, I am pretty hard on myself, and it stresses me out a lot. It just eats me up on a day to day basis but I keep a lot of that to myself and it could be a cause for a lot of stress sometimes.

He may be his own worse enemy considering he acknowledges he has a good life yet is hard on himself. I tend to think there will be other young men out there who may ruffle more feathers than himself and it appears he may be a true asset to his tribe for competition purposes

Ian Rosenberger

I think this game will come natural to me, being outside is something that I am used to being with folks and people. I love to flirt and that is going to be a big part of the game. I try to be as upfront as possible. Underneath I am pretty competitive.

He may be a natural at this game. He appears to be someone both chest puffing men and ladies will like and all age groups as well.

Ibrehem Rahman

I think I am a fairly interesting person and I think that I thought I would be a pretty good competitor, or at least I was able persuade them to think so. I like to laugh, I don't like to be serious all the time. I get a little over passionate, over zealous, if I really want to get something done, I can kinda be a little tough on people, I have never been a big camper but I don't think it will be a problem for me.

Another person with a lot of "I think" which I have always found interesting in determining the type of person they are. I don't know how sure of himself he is nor do I think socially he will do really well. Again, however, in the beginning you tend to keep those who will assist you in winning immunity but I don't know socially how he will fare later on

James Miller

I am ******** redneck, damn right, I am come here to steal the show. I am a hard talker, I am head strong, people are going to be scared at first, but accept me. So yea, they are going to think that I am dumb and I am idiot.

This man is there purely for television purposes. I cannot fathom that he will not grate on everyone's nerves. There are those who can get away with this type of persona and those who can't. My instinct tells me he can't

Janu Tornell

Face it, sex sells, we live in a country that sex is very open and in your face. Part of my strategy, I kinda know, I know that I won't be the leader, the know it all, because I am not the know it all, I don't do that in life anyway. I am not here to make friends, I know it's been said before, but I didn't come all the way to make friends, I came here to win a million dollars and to be the showgirl turned Survivor.

Janu's strategy entails not making friends and not the leader. I'm not sure what Janu is planning to do however part of this game is social adaptibility and I'm not convinced that Janu will be able to not take the show girl off the island

Jeff Wilson

I have a decent amount of experience with certain things that could help me out on the island, not nature-wise, just being outdoors. I can guarantee you that I will work harder for the money than anybody.

Jeff has that coasting quality that should fare well for him but I don't necessarily know that he has that edge to win. He, like Gregg seem to me that they will do fairly well but somehow not succeed in the end

Jennifer Lyon

I plan on flirting a lot with the guys but also trying to make good friends with the girls too because that could be really difficult and that probably going to be my hardest thing and you know, just making a good, strong alliance that will help carry me to the end.

Jennifer acknowledges that flirting is fine but don't allow it to alienate the women. Some females cannot do this. She is aware that she needs to be friends with the women as well so I will give her some "thumbs up" for that recognition as it will serve her well

Jolanda Jones

I have a lot of athletic accomplishments, a lot of academic accomplishments, a lot of civic accomplishments, and I just think it's a unique combination. As a criminal defense lawyer, when I pick juries I've gotta figure out how to read people, especially when I cross examine witnesses and figure out their weaknesses are and exploit them and make sure the whole world sees it.

While Jolanda has everything it takes to be on that island, I have worries about her personality. She is obviously physically a powerhouse, her occupation as an attorney (criminal defense) requires much passion but this may border on arrogance. Jolanda may need to watch herself carefully

Jonathan Libby

I am pretty upbeat about everything, as far as spending time with my family, and stuff like that, There's no ice with me to break, there is no breaking the ice. I take that all right out of the spectrum, I make everybody feel as comfortable with me as possible. I think I am going to play the game, just be nice to everyone, try not to make a lot of enemies, try not to burn a lot of bridges right off the bat. I think I am good at reading people and I good at manipulating, but I am not really a cruel person.

Another one that I feel may become friends with Jeff and Gregg. Jonathon appears to want to play the game but I don't know if he is "evil" enough to do so. He says he is not cruel but good at manipulating but will be nice to everyone, not make enemies. I think this may be a test for him if he will be able to do what is required of him

Katie Gallagher

I have always been a little bit like a class clown. There's never been anyone like me on Survivor ever, there's never been a funny female. I work pretty well under stress but I also get narcolepsy when things are overwhelming. I don't think they realize how raunchy I can be, I just say things to shock people. I am manipulative, outgoing, flexible, compassionate, sneaky, and I think that plays into my strategy, because that is my strategy, to be myself cause all of those attributes can win you the game, that is why I am perfect for this game.

Katie may be the life of the party at home but unfortunately (and I said this before) funny females are not as accepted as funny males. Funny females are "obnoxious" With the abundance of other young women, she may be an early casualty of the younger sect. It strictly depends on how well she can keep the "humor" in check

Kimberly Mullen

I am able to bite my tongue when necessary, Unless I can get a boy to fall in my love with me, and use that to my advantage, then my luck is probably a factor because there are some hot boys here. I was always a tomboy so I have made a really big effort in the past couple of years to work on my female relationships and be more of the chick that can talk with the girls, I am always the person for some reason that people gossip to and they tell me all their issues so I think that will definitely play to my advantage.

Kimberly should hope that her efforts recently in working with females is sound because that could be her biggest problem. She is counting on her appearance and again, there may be a lot of cattiness on this island that we haven't seen yet.

Stephenie LaGrossa
I am just going to work hard, be myself, be outgoing, value other people's opinions and give other people mine's, and go from there. People think that I am the girl next door that you know which is a nice thing, but they realize I am very , I am a little nutty, a little crazy, I am not so calm and crazy.

Stephanie, as stated earlier, seems to have that Shawna persona to me. I think she will have a good equilibrium with all the men and the women much like Ian may have. Her discussion of her craziness sounds like typical fare we get as opposed to her character being one that goes off the charts

Tom Westman
I think it is a good thing to be a 40 year old guy playing this game because you are not seen as a physical threat like the 25 year old guy who spends all his time in the gym and you are not seen as a liability to your tribe early on as maybe an older guy would be.

Tom sounds like all things wonderful yet he has his age against him. I do think he would make that perfect older person that gets far in the game but it truly depends on how the younger people are thinking.

Wanda Shirk

I have always wanted to be a genuinely good person in every way, character, hard work. Life has been often difficult for me. I think I am the kind of person that people will respect for who I am, wisdom that I bring I hope, wisdom and fun that I bring to my tribe.

This interview did not really raise my hopes for this lady. In Thailand, she would have stayed but with the mechanics of this season it is virtually an impossibility. I anticipate she will try TOO hard and put people off immediately

Willard Smith

I don't care if I win this thing or not, I've already lost 35 pounds, got back in shape, and I'll soon be a non-smoker. So I'm here to have fun, at other people's expense. I'm just here, really, to have a good time. I don't need the million dollars. I'm here to last as long as I can.

Willard's motiviation is obviously not winning. Regardless of his intention to lie about his occupation, it is clear that he is there to have fun and I don't think anyone would have issue booting him off.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"

02-02-05, 06:12 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Introductory videos are up"
LAST EDITED ON 02-02-05 AT 06:14 PM (EST)

Here are the video transcripts with the comments selected for the pre-show confessionals/promos in bold. It's interesting to see them in context...

Angie Jakusz

I work in a bar that you know the beer and the shot kind, none of that chi-chi fancy cocktail nonsense you know. People are like, what's a good drink, a Budweiser draft. What do you mean what's a good drink? I am really silly and I have the freak factor working for me, I stick out, like I am the only woman who has ever looked like this on Survivor. I am a hard worker, I'm a hard worker, very organized, you know, I don't leave a job until it is done and I think that will be one of my really strong points in terms of toughness. I don't know, I kinda sorta excited to see how diabolical but I do have the evil haha emotion down so I don't know if that will help me. I am actually a really horrible liar, so this is kinda gonna be a challenge for me to see if I can be a better liar.


Ashlee Ashby

I am very goal driven and I do have my hates and desires and that is priority most of the time. My sexuality, and being seen as a sex symbol, it's a good thing, of course it's a good thing. I think that every women wants to be perceived as sexy. I think it will hinder me maybe with the women, they could see that as a threat to themselves. I am a member of the Church of Jesus Christ the Latter Day Saints. Being a member of my church has instilled me with the qualities of being dedicated and committed. People would almost perceive me to be as loud and crazy and not have the morals and standards that I do, they are astonished to believe that oh yea right, you're Mormon and you haven't had sex, and yet you have huge humongous breasts and dress sexy. I like to have a fun and I can have a good time, and I can accept different views and opinions and I am very open minded but that in no way will alter my own morals and views and standards. It's so hard for me to kiss a gorgeous guy and get all hot and heated and then tell him hold on and say stop, that's all we can do. I would describe myself as being very happy, flirtatious, and fun yet at the same time, I am very dedicated and stubborn.


Bobby Jon Drinkard

I am just a boy from Troy, Alabama and born and raised down there and raised on fishing ponds and hunting deer and catching catfish and you know getting in a truck and seeing how fast you can go and try to wreck it, I don't know. My plan has not changed from what I have been doing so far, it's gotten me this far. I am not going to change, not going to change, definitely not going to push the envelope too hard because you scare people away, but you know for the most part be me, be who I am and definitely stick my hand out there, put forth a little effort to making alliances, I think sometimes people like to coast, and I am not going to coast. These m60s are I got here are waiting for everyone to get a little piece of… I am a strong Christians a lot of the things that I do a lot of the ways that I act are from the Bible, that's the way I try to live my life. I don't always going to live like that, I am not going to get on this show and live like that. I am going to have people think that I am the biggest you know what, but you know what though, but they just gonna have to call me, because when I rest my head down to God and I have a little conversation, we get it squared and way and make it straight and the next the sun comes up and we keep on doing it. I am going to cuddle it up with the ladies cause I like to flirt but that's flirting is fun man, nothing wrong is flirting, just having a good time, you know look good, you know what's going on, it puts a smile on people's face.


Caryn Groedel

I would describe myself as lucky, hard working, ambitious and fun loving. I didn't have abusive parents, but they were very very strict. And we had to do everything just right, we had to be good at what we did, and we had to give 110%, my parents would not accept anything less that, and that is what defined me from my youth. And what defines me as an adult is having three daughters. I think I am perceived as being really really really tough. You know in my law profession, people say stay away from her, you don't want to try a case against her. But little do they know, that I have fears, and I cry, I am a softie. I think I am very persuasive, I've only lost two jury trials in my career and I think I am can be very persuasive. I think that being an attorney will help me in several ways. First of all because I have a keen insight into people which I have learned from being an attorney selecting jurors to be on my jury when I try a case, so the keen insight is one thing and also, the ability to persuade is another aspect of being an attorney. I am going to go far in this game, that I can assure you.


Coby Archa

I became the funny guy out of sheer defense because being the gawky, gay kid on the playground you to had something going your way, so mine was my sense of humor. I came out when I was 15, to my mom, who had a brother who actually died of AIDS so that's how the subject was approached, so it was very easy for me to come out quite honestly, and it has never been a problem, even when I was little though, preschool, people have always known I was a gay. Originally I was going to turn the girls on the boys, being the obvious gay guy thing to do. But through the process, I have learned a lot about myself. I've learned that I basically, I think I am going to have attached myself to one or two people that I really like that really know everything that I am doing and I'll push us to the top and lie cheat and steal everybody else. I spent some time in jail when I was young because as a troubled teenager but I think that will help me in the game to be honest because I know what it is like to be secluded and away from your family. There was also a time in my life where I was homeless, so I had to sleep in the streets for a little while, I know what it feels like to sleep in an alley, in a cardboard box and have a rat crawl on you. I think me being flamboyant is going to help me in the game, oooh it's going to help me. Because I am going to be down by the beach, braiding some girl's hair, sticking flowers in her hair, and all the jocks are gonna be up by the camp and they are gonna be like there is that fag playing with her hair but little do they know while I am over there braiding her hair, I am going to be plotting who will I be taking off next. So I definitely am going to use their prejudices against them in the game. I think my mouth can get me into a lot of trouble in this game to be quite honest, I hope that it doesn't always get me in trouble, I am sure moments where my mouth will shoot off and hopefully it will be at the right time so they won't hold it against . I will shoot my mouth, that's a given, I am too expressive but hopefully I won't go around screaming at people all day long.


Gregg Carey

I manage you know, several types of projects, everything from projects meeting with CEOS to help them find corporate objectives, help them find roadmaps or plans for three to five years, I also manage large scale global communication projects. I am an athlete, in addition growing up and playing sports, high school sports, I play college football (mumbles other sporting activities) and continuing that athletic endeavor with adventure racing. I am the type of guy from a personality perspective, I like to hang out with my family and friends I prefer a good dinner and good conversation over a loud night at the bar where you forget everything. I like quality time, one on one, I like to get to know people, I like flirting with people, I think from the outside I have had a good life, there is nothing I can really complain about good health, good family, done well on school, work. I am pretty hard on myself, and it stresses me out a lot. It just eats me up on a day to day basis but I keep a lot of that to myself and it could be a cause for a lot of stress sometimes.


Ian Rosenberger

Last year, I got to spend a year as a student government president at Penn state which was a blast. But I got a lot of applicable skills that I learned last year that will help me here, dealing with people, and learning what it means to have someone stagger in the back. I always said that I can talk a fat man out of his bag Doritos, you know what I mean. I think this game will come natural to me, being outside is something that I am used to being with folks and people, and learning the intricacies of community thought and group dynamics work into it, something that I have always loved to do. I love to flirt and that is going to be a big part of the game. Obviously not lying, cheating, and stealing is like not collecting the 200 dollars when you pass go in Monopoly. It's just part of it. You do what you can do to play a classic game, you do what you can to make sure you don't other things, you know when it comes down to it, everybody else is going to do it to you. I am probably the most competitive guy that I have ever met that nobody would know if they were talking to me. I kinda play it off as a happy go lucky dude. I try to be as upfront as possible. Underneath I am pretty competitive. It's just a matter of seeing what the tribes need, where do I need to go next, in order to get to the next level. I am going to be aggressive with it and use all the things that I have, I think time will tell, I am going to use what I have to get to the next round.


Ibrehem Rahman

I think I am a fairly interesting person and I think that I thought I would be a pretty good competitor, or at least I was able persuade them to think so. It's important to definitely feel the people out that you are in this game with because I guess you could say they have the power of the pen, and that could affect you winning the million. I think it is important to be able to keep some good standing with the people you are on the team with or you're playing the game with. It is important to be very very competitive and of course to be a little conniving, it is a game. I like to have fun, I like to laugh, I don't like to be serious all the time. I get a little over passionate, over zealous, if I really want to get something done, I can kinda be a little tough on people, I have never been a big camper but I don't think it will be a problem for me.

James Miller

I am ******** redneck, damn right, I am come here to steal the show. That's what I am here to do, take a million dollars and pay off some debts because I am a broke #####. A lot of people think rednecks are racists but we aint, it's the skinheads that are racists. We are the ones that just want to drink beer, get stoned and hang out with our wives and our kids that's all, that's all we wanna do. You know not drink with our kids of course, family guy, mow the lawn, smokes cigarettes, that's all we do. I am a hard talker, I am head strong, people are going to be scared at first, but accept me. I am going to be the first redneck to win a million dollars on this show. Characteristics of a real redneck: Got to be able to drink some beer. Got to be able to choose a back up? You got to have a wife that is a stripper. Your kids have to be able to mow the lawn before they are five years old. That's a fact. You have to drive a pickup truck that has a lot of miles on it, and it's gotta have a big ol dent on the hood. Your house, you in debt, you never own it rednecks rent, they don't buy, it's cheaper to rent, so they can be like gypsies and move around. They are going to think I am dumb, because most rednecks don't go to college, they just go to work at the steel mill and get drunk all the time. So yea, they are going to think that I am dumb and I am idiot. If I win a million dollars, first thing I am going to do with thatI am going to buy a nice spread, will fornicate with her, then we are going to go out pay for the tuitions, buy a few vehicles for the kids, they are going to need it when they get older because I will be broke again, buy me a new truck.

Janu Tornell

To be a Folies-Bergère showgirl, it's very exciting. I've been doing it for 9 1/2 years, fell into it by fluke, by accident, was not thinking of doing that. I am kinda of a legacy, my mother was a showgirl in Cuba. Left her island, traveled, ended up in Las Vegas in the rat pack years, however, I never thought of being a showgirl, it just kinda happened. When I tell people that I am showgirl, topless is one of the first questions that they want to know about. Face it, sex sells, we live in a country that sex is very open and in your face. However, there is a side of the world, United States, whatever country you may be in, that it's taboo. Part of my strategy, I kinda know, I know that I won't be the leader, the know it all, because I am not the know it all, I don't do that in life anyway. I won't be a bitchy one, #####, #####, #####, #####. I am not here to make friends, I know it's been said before, but I didn't come all the way to make friends, I came here to win a million dollars and to be the Vegas showgirl turned Survivor. This is what I am, so if I can be sexy and appeal to someone, then I am going to sex appeal everyone that I can.


Jeff Wilson

I have a decent amount of experience with certain things that could help me out on the island, not nature-wise, just being outdoors. I love to fish, I am always hiking, I am always outdoors. Being that I am 21, I think that may give other people a pretty bad disposition of me. Their impression of me is probably gonna be a little off. Whether I walk away the first guy voted off which won't happen or I win the million bucks, I want to get in the fire department. My life up to this point I would say has been a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10. I enjoy the way my whole life has gone, good and bad, they have all led up to very important things. Day to day, I am a personal trainer, I have very flexible hours, I have a lot of free time, I enjoy doing everything I enjoy doing, I have plenty of time to do whatever I want to do, and that keeps me happy everyday I wake up being happy. I think the biggest thing that surprises me about being a personal trainer is that people generally for the most part don't really care about their health. Some people do, and they get a personal trainer and that's them trying to take a step in the right direction, but for the most part, if you calculate the amount of people at the gym and the amount of people in your town, it's nowhere near. I'd say it's the most important part of living. Anything that I am fascinated with, anything I am intrigued with, I won't stop until I have it, or conquer it. I can guarantee you that I will work harder for the money than anybody.


Jennifer Lyon

I plan on flirting a lot with the guys but also trying to make good friends with the girls too because that could be really difficult and that probably going to be my hardest thing and you know, just making a good, strong alliance that will help carry me to the end. But I plan on helping everyone and being everyone's best friend. The nanny thing, I think I've used the analogy, it a lot like a tribe. You go into the tribe, this family, you try to make yourself useful, to this family and yea, you can get kicked off, it's very much like that: making relationships, being able to blend in, being able to succeed. My secret is going to be getting by on being well rounded, being able to find something in familiar, in common with each person. I will be underestimated, I don't think I look like I can sleep on the ground, and eat bugs if I have to, I don't think people will know that about me. I am a fighter and I grew up camping outdoors all the time, I'm going to hang in there until the very end. Being one of the more attractive people, it will be a challenge to just the right amount of flirting, and not doing it and stepping on other peoples' toes.


Jolanda Jones

I have a lot of athletic accomplishments, a lot of academic accomplishments, a lot of civic accomplishments, and I just think it's a unique combination. I was the oldest of the five siblings and I was responsible for caring for them, and I was looking for anything to keep me out of the house. And athletics was one of the ways I could stay out of the house longer. Turns out I was very good. I ended up winning (insert lots of awards). As a criminal defense lawyer, when I pick juries I've gotta figure out how to read people, especially when I cross examine witnesses and figure out their weaknesses are and exploit them and make sure the whole world sees it. My dad blew his brains out, I was in the room with him and that was one of the many bad things that happened to me. I was a year and a month, two of my dad's brothers committed suicide, so my grandmother has lost three kids to suicide. My 19 year old brother was murdered, shot 5 times, twice in the head, I got a brother in prison now, I've got a cousin in prison for murder, I got an aunt who was murdered, I've been shot at, I could continue for a good 20-30 minutes so the journey has been daunting.


Jonathan Libby

I overcame cancer this year, so that was a really challenging thing mentally, I think that is the biggest thing I have ever had to overcome in my life. At first it was probably for the first month, I was waking up everyday, telling myself, oh my god, I am 23 and I have cancer. After I finally was treated and everything and pretty much cured, it was one of those things I would wake up and put a smile on my face - I am 23 and overcame cancer that was a big step and a real positive thing and probably the best motivational thing, and that runs through my mind nonstop and now it's a big part of my life now. It makes you kind of stop and think and life is precious, you got to cherish everything, and you really can't take too many things for granite, I really don't take things for granite, I am pretty upbeat about everything, as far as spending time with my family, and stuff like that, and no one is invincible and life can be taken away from you at any moment. There's no ice with me to break, there is no breaking the ice. I take that all right out of the spectrum, I make everybody feel as comfortable with me as possible. I think I am going to play the game, just be nice to everyone, try not to make a lot of enemies, try not to burn a lot of bridges right off the bat. I think I am good at reading people and I good at manipulating, but I am not really a cruel person.


Katie Gallagher

I was a rebellious teenager, and my parents divorced when I was 11, so that was a rough time anyway and we moved so my way of fitting in was to be bad, but I have always been a little bit like a class clown. There's never been anyone like me on Survivor ever, there's never been a funny female. I know that all these people that are here are just a dynamic, interesting, diverse group of people. And that's a lot of material for Katie to handle, and I hate when people talk in third person, Katie hates that. I work pretty well under stress but I also get narcolepsy when things are overwhelming. I don't think they realize how raunchy I can be, I just say things to shock people. I am manipulative, outgoing, flexible, compassionate, sneaky, and I think that plays into my strategy, because that is my strategy, to be myself cause all of those attributes can win you the game, that is why I am perfect for this game. I am not trying to win a million dollars, I am just here to lose some weight so once I hit my goal weight I can be gone, but please don't kick me off before my goal weight.


Kimberly Mullen

I am going to use my political knowledge as far as, I think my political knowledge and international relations is going to play a big factor, and how people will form up and the position you take within in the alliance. I am able to bite my tongue when necessary, I've started doing this probably in the past couple of years because I used to never be this type of person and that's a good thing, because I can brush things off quite easily instead of wasting my energy on people I don't have to. I am spontaneous and adaptable and it's very hard to throw me off course from what I want to get. There is always the kind of nerdy tomboy growing up, and so I worked so hard in college to try and be the cool girl and but I am still just a nerdy tomboy. Unless I can get a boy to fall in my love with me, and use that to my advantage, then my luck is probably a factor because there are some hot boys here. I was always a tomboy so I have made a really big effort in the past couple of years to work on my female relationships and be more of the chick that can talk with the girls, I am always the person for some reason that people gossip to and they tell me all their issues so I think that will definitely play to my advantage.


Stephenie LaGrossa

I grew up with four older brothers, and a mom and a dad, so that was kind of tough, it's had like five fathers growing up. Instead of playing with Barbies, I was always outside playing sports, I was either the goalie, or the pitcher or the quarterback. Growing up with four older brothers has definitely helped shaped the person that I am. Instead of playing with Barbies and putting on makeup, I was outside playing sports with the boys. I am a lot of fun, and I think I am going to bring fun to the game in the stressful environment. I am just going to work hard, be myself, be outgoing, value other people's opinions and give other people mine's, and go from there. People think that I am the girl next door that you know which is a nice thing, but they realize I am very , I am a little nutty, a little crazy, I am not so calm and crazy. I have a boyfriend, he doesn't like when I get crazy, but I get crazy anyway.


Tom Westman

The most rewarding job you can ever have, I went to it as most of us guys did, because my dad is on the job too, it tends to be a family business, it's not because your parents are telling you to get rich doing this, but because they have had a rich life doing, it's just a rewarding experience, a lot of time at home with your family. I like my job. I like my job, there's no two fires that are the same, there's no two circumstances in this game that are the same. We don't know what the format is going to be, what the tribe will be, everything could be different, you can't when the curve ball gets thrown, you can't stand there when it goes by, you have to react to it. I like the game, I like the kidding around in the firehouse, the fun and games and the fooling around, there's that game to be played out here, I mean there is some depravation with the food and the conditions, but you are playing a game. I think it is a good thing to be a 40 year old guy playing this game because you are not seen as a physical threat like the 25 year old guy who spends all his time in the gym and you are not seen as a liability to your tribe early on as maybe an older guy would be.


Wanda Shirk

I have always wanted to be a genuinely good person in every way, character, hard work. Life has been often difficult for me. We had some financially difficult times. My husband took a business and sold it and got into another where he thought he was going to be would be the vice president of a company and it went bankrupt. We had a lot of hard times. There was a day when the sheriff at the county came to our house and said, I hate to do this, but you haven't made your mortgage payment in six months so we have to take the house back. I think I am the kind of person that people will respect for who I am, wisdom that I bring I hope, wisdom and fun that I bring to my tribe. I want to ask questions and listen and listen and listen and show to each person on my tribe that I care about them. I want to see the good things in them but then I want to find out who has the most good things in them, the most character. I am going to almost have to be the big sister that everybody loves, maybe even the mother, although I am trying really hard to camouflage my age with the hair dye and things like that. So I hope I don't look like some old lady.::A brief rap::


Willard Smith

I really started this, uh, as a weight loss program. And the joke got out of hand. And here I am. And now, I'm going to use it as a smoking sustention program. I don't care if I win this thing or not, I've already lost 35 pounds, got back in shape, and I'll soon be a non-smoker. So I'm here to have fun, at other people's expense. I'm not sure if there going to be advantages that come from being a lawyer, or there advantages that come from being me. I'm a good problem solver, I'm analytical, I can generally tell when people are being untruthful, and I persuade people for a living, that's what lawyers do. I'm just here, really, to have a good time. And to stop smoking. I don't need the million dollars. I'm here to last as long as I can. I'm certainly not going to let people know I'm a lawyer. Uh, I have, uh... there's an old game called "Dungeons and Dragons", you roll the dice and create a character. I have created one. I'm going to try to be non-threatening, helpful, likable, uh, until I get rid of all the people that have to be gotten rid of.


The selected excerpts give us a glimpse of how the contestants will be probably be edited during the show and which aspects of their personalities the editors will choose to emphasize...



Krautboy

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

02-03-05, 10:01 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Introductory videos are up"
Thanks BR and KB for transcribing these interviews. I found them pretty insightful.

As this season seems to contain alot of beautiful, over-achievers, probably type-A personalities I tried to initially put them into some order as to most likely to leave the game early, early post-merge, and late game.

I am convinced that Wanda and Ashlee will be the first two eliminated. Unfortunately for Wanda I think that the fact that she is the oldest, probably most un-athletic female will do her in, which is unfortunate, as she does seem to be an interesting character. As for Ashlee, as I've stated before, I just think she's a walking oxymoron....her interview is very helter skelter and I don't believe she looks to have any real assets or resources to bring to the tribe. I think she'll be out before she's started, at any rate, she'll be an early boot.

Bobby Jon definately could be put into the same catagory as Ashlee, however, his physical abilities could keep him in the game a bit longer, I'm sure he would be an asset to the tribe as long as the challenges are physical and not mental. Some people may write him off as not too threatening a competitor which could also buy him some time(in other words there may be far more threatening people out there to target in the beginning). IMO, he could last to the merge, but definately he'll be gone around then.

I most definately thought that James was trying to overact, and I think VS has pegged him correctly. He's a daw, and will not last too long. I can't see him bonding well with too many people out there. I think he's likely to go earlier, rather than later.

Janu, in my opinion, does'nt have much to bring to the tribal table. I think she'll be an early boot. Don't think she'll be able to "sex appeal everyone"....she's too much of an individual and I don't see her bonding too well with the younger women, and the men have younger, fresher females to woo.

I was disappointed in Willard's motivation to be on the show, yet I think there will be more to him as he plays the game. I think he could be a good resource for his tribe, hopefully he can get on a very physical tribe that can win the challenges, if he is, he could last through the merge. If he gets on a weaker tribe, he could be an earlier boot. I love the fact that he's telling them that he's a postal worker! He's definately taking the whole experience as a game.

Ibrehem strikes me as an under the radar, strong man that could be a real asset to the tribe early on. Come merge time, he'll be perceived as more of a threat and therefore a target. I think he'll go around merge time.

Katie is going to be most definately a character. However, she seems a bit sarcastic to me and although she appears non-threatening, I am thinking that her mouth might just be too much for alot of these people. As one of the lesser physically fit people out there I don't see too many assets that she can bring to her tribe. She could fly under the radar some and coast being not one of the more threatening peeps there, yet I think her mouth will make her an earlier target.

Jolanda is going to be a tremendous asset to the tribe in the early game with her supreme physical prowess. She's also a smart woman and may be a strong problem solver. I look for her to be a real target come merge time, as she could be unstoppable in land challenges.....she may be nothing to worry about however, in the water challenges. She could be a very strong ally.

At first I was thinking that Angie would be an early boot just by virtue of her individuality. However, I really liked what she had to say in her interview. She does not seem to be the most physically adept woman, yet she is young. Who knows, she could be more physically fit than some of the babes on the show.
If she's as organized and as hard of a worker as she claims, she could be a real asset to the tribe. As a bartender I would definately think she does indeed have some social skills. I would love to see her make it to the end game as I would love to see her diabolical side come to fruition....could be very entertaining! It will be interesting to see who she is able to bond with, and who she'll align with...could be any of them. But, I am worried that she will go sooner rather than later as she too is a real individual in a game with beautiful, super-achievers. If she is not an asset to her tribe in the challenges, she's toast.

I get the impression that Caryn is a bit too "severe" for this game. She's in good physically fit shape, she's a mother, but she is a driven attorney. I think she may end up coming across as too directive for most of the people out here and may be perceived as threatening. I suspect she will not make the merge.

Kimberly is a very attractive and intelligent woman, but I question how much personality she has. She's a tomboy, she's "hot", yet she's the one that the girls all share their gossip with??? She's not impressive. I think she'll be a coat tail rider, and I don't think that she will see the end game. She could be perceived as threatening from the other women.

Jeff, IMO, is not going to last too long in the game. He seems very physically fit, which will probably serve him well, until the merge draws near. He is very young, and does give off "leader" vibes from the body language he exhibits. When he speaks of being a physical trainer, I get the impression that he is indeed a bit judgemental of others...this spells trouble for me. I found it interesting that he wants to be a fire-fighter and this is who we have speculated Tom hooks up with....yet, we propose that it is Jeff that "leads" Tom around and not the other way around. IMO, he may come across as an alpha male, that others will take offense to, as he is so young and inexperienced and perhaps a bit judgemental. From comments that I have read over at Sucks regarding Tom's comments post game, Jeff may hook up with/bond with more women than men. Look for him to get a few women that will try to ride his coattails.

First appearances considered, I did not put too much stock into Jennifer. Yet, after reading her interview I think that I may have underestimated her as well. I do think that she will be underestimated. Yet, judging by her reaction to the early eliminations, she may let her emotions lead her in this game, and we all know that that is a death sentence in Survivor. She could be the "Dolly" in this season. I see her as an earlier boot or perhaps a premerge boot. She will definately be an under the radar player.

Tom may make it to the merge, but somewhere post merge he could get booted. I look at him as an asset to the tribe in the beginning and through merge. He is a father, and holds a very well respected job. I think people will feel safe with him around. From what I have read, it may be that he puts more stock into aligning with the men(seems natural as I think firefighters are part of a "brotherhood"), and that may be his downfall toward the end game.

Coby looks to be a very entertaining character, and I loved his interview. I do think he'll bond with the women, more than the guys, but I could see him getting along with some of them anyway. I don't think he'll appear too threatening with alot of the men, so I think he'll make it well past merge. I can't wait to hear what his take on things will be! I think he'll go pretty far. His mouth could be his demise...I look to him to be a sort of "Sandra" like player...tries to stay under the radar, not afraid to speak their piece, and will write anyone's name down as long as it's not their own....

Gregg is a very strong, intelligent male that I think alot of the females may like, and alot of the men may respect. I don't think he'll be a forceful alpha leader, yet more of a reserved one. He will be a great asset to the tribe, and I think he'll make it to the end game. I think that there will be much more "in your face" alpha types, that are just as physical as Gregg, who will be perceived as more threatening. He's a contender, IMO

I think that Jonathan could make it past merger in this game. He's physically an asset and again, I think, at this point, that there will be more imposing alpha types to knock off at merge time, than him. Having beaten cancer, alot of the others could empathize with him. I think he could last a while in this game.

Ian, I think is going to be a really interesting character, and I think he could go very far. The burly boys may perceive him as threatening as he'll probably be able to bond with most of the peeps out there. I don't think he'll be an aggressive alpha leader, and I really think he's got a shot of making the end game.

Stephanie is also an early favorite of mine. I think she also has what it takes to get to the end game. If she aligns with the right people, she could go far. I think she'll have the ability to get along with most of the girls, while being able to bond with the men as well. Her physical competence will serve her very well, and she is sure to make it well past the merge. She'll be classified as an under the radar girl, as I don't think that she'll force her opinions on the group.

Of course there is so much more to this game that is unforeseen to us. Such as the twists that lead to eliminations, how the tribes are divided, and who they all align with. I'm ready for the game to begin!


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02-03-05, 03:58 PM (EST)
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25. "Interview thoughts"
LAST EDITED ON 02-03-05 AT 04:10 PM (EST)

Wow. On the whole, a very unimpressive lot in terms of game savvy (at least as presented in these introductory interviews). If that was the best material from those interviews, it's going to be another season where game logic won't be a prime, secondary, or even tertiary consideration in weekly boot predictions.

Individually...

Angie strikes me as scatter-brained. She wants to be a freak, but she also wants you to know that she's borderline OCD. I'd say this is not a good combination for longevity. She's likely to alienate some with her appearance. If she alienates others with her supposed work ethic and "evil side", she's going to be spending a lot of time by the pool at the Loser Lodge. In order for her to be successful, she's going to need some luck.

Best case scenario: Mid-jury. Most likely: Pre-jury.

Ashlee is a walking contradiction. I don't think she knows who she is. The first boot rumors sound about right with her. There's a reason she got 3 minutes, and everyone else got about 1:30.

Best case scenario: Pre-jury. Most likely: One of the 1st two booted.

Bobby Jon is not long for this game. If he makes it as far as John K. it'll be a miracle. He's nice enough, but he doesn't have an ounce of perception, deception, or awareness outside of his mirror.

Best case scenario: Merge. Most likely: Pre-jury.

Caryn is way too intense to live up to her prediction of going far in this game. I'll bet she's a hell of a lawyer, but she comes off as intimidating. That, combined with the fact that she's got an age disadvantage, will work against her. She'd like to be perceived as motherly. Yeah, so did Patricia in S4. Didn't work out too well for her, either.

What she does have working for her is the tradition of older women who make it past Day 9 generally making it to the last days. Still, I think she's more of a Trish than a Kathy.

Best case scenario: Final 4. Most likely: Pre-jury, shortly before the merge.

Coby has good instincts, but he's also a tirade away from getting booted. He's likely to bond with the women on his tribe, a la Brandon, but he doesn't have a lot to work with, at least on first glance. If he can lead them by the nose, and minimize the cattiness, I like his chances with this bunch. If he winds up with duds like Jenny, Ashlee, and Janu, he'll be lucky to make it as far as Brandon did.

Best case scenario: Final 4. Most likely: Mid-jury

Gregg is the fullest of himself among a group narcissists. He may be Burton or Brian, but he also might be Hunter or John P. It remains to be seen. I didn't like what I saw, which is a guy who thinks he's one of the guys, but really thinks he's better than everyone else. This group of guys doesn't look too collectively bright, so he might be able to do well with them.

Weight loss spoilers indicate he might be more of a Burton than a Hunter.

Best case scenario: Winner. Most likely: Late jury.

Ian I can't really get a grasp on. Is he really that perceptive, or is he one of those guys who did Model UN and think they understand the world of group dynamics, only to be thrown to the wolves? He doesn't look outwardly threatening, but at the same time, among these giants, he comes off as a Skinny Ryan type. Hopefully he's not, because if he's perceived as physically weak, it'll take more than diplomatic method to get him to the merge. I'm betting he's stronger than he might appear.

Best case scenario: Winner. Most likely: Mid-jury

Ibrehem might do better than all the other strongmen of this season. He gives off some Osten vibes, but I think he's more grounded. He may be too grounded. He doesn't strike me as a "think outside the box" kind of guy. That will work against him, because when this game becomes individual, he'll stick out. I don't believe he has the skills to get the target off of him.

Best case scenario: Final 4. Most likely: Early jury.

James is being presented as the next Fairplay/Robfaddah. I don't think he's that smart. I do think he'll be a big deal in this game, in terms of story, though. He's likely to have a Rory-esque story arc. For several episodes it'll be all about him, and then, like a forest fire, he'll burn himself out. If I thought for one second that he had more than one speed, I'd give him a shot, but I don't. I think he'll be loud the entire time he's on this show.

Best case scenario: Early jury. Most likely: Pre-jury.

Janu didn't impress me. I think she thinks she's not a primadonna, yet I'd be willing to bet that she is. She doesn't seem to have a plan, and that's never good. She might get carried a bit, but I think she's too much of a cold fish to endear herself to any group. I could be wrong, but that's the vibe I get from her.

Best case scenario: Early jury. Most likely: Pre-jury.

Jeff is a little much, isn't he? He wants so badly to impress people. If he can pull an Ethan, and find a Lex to be the Batman to his Robin, he might go deep into the game. Otherwise? He's gonna be the guy going fishing when everyone else is talking strategy. That means you're out of the loop, and you don't want to be out of the loop. Providers don't win this game (See Boneham, Rupert). People who know what's going on in the tribe win this game. I don't think he's that type of guy.

Best case scenario: Jury. Most likely: Pre-jury.

Jenny wants us to think she's stronger than she looks. She better be. She strikes me as meek, and while that will certainly get you to a certain point in the game, it won't win it for you. You have to be prepared to backstab or get your hands dirty. I'd be surprised if she could really do that.

Best case scenario: Mid-jury. Most likely: Mid-jury.

Jolanda scares the bejeezus out of me. Probst says she has a charming side to go with the intimidation. If she does, and can con these fools into allowing her to make the merge, she's got the best chance of all of them to go on a Colby-esque challenge run. If she doesn't freak them out (like Joanna did) or come off as a HUGE physical threat (like about a dozen former players), she could win this thing.

Best case scenario: Winner. Most likely: Merge.

Jonathan is, like Probst said, a darkhorse. I like his laid back attitude with this crew. He's got the physique to pull that attitude off without too many repercussions. If he lays low, he could be the last stud standing. The thing I wonder about is his ability to politic when it gets nasty...and it will get nasty.

Best case scenario: Final 4. Most likely: Jury.

Katie is comedian without an audience. Personally, I think she'd be a cool person to hang out with. Unfortunately, she's stuck with a group of straight-laced muscle freaks. If she winds up on the same tribe as Coby, it would work to her benefit (and probably the audience's, as they might be the comic relief this show desperately needs). The information that she came back without losing much weight doesn't sound like it worked out that way, though. They probably kicked her off before she reached her goal weight.

Best case scenario: Jury. Most likely: Pre-jury.

Kim is like Ian, in my mind. Is she really politically savvy, or is she an academic pretender? She has the potential to be quite effective in this game. She's good looking, gets along well with men, and understands that she has to listen more than speak. I like her chances, as long as she doesn't piss the women off.

Best case scenario: Winner. Most likely: Final 4.

Stephenie is a jury lock, imo. Her non-threatening exterior hides her competitiveness and athletic ability. She's about the only player I have a very good feeling about this season. I think that bare minimum she makes the jury, and quite likely is in the mix at the end. She's young enough to fit in with the majority. She grew up in a house of athletic men, so she'll be able to live with the model-types and all the machismo that brings. She may even be adept at stroking the occasional ego.

Best case scenario: Winner. Most likely: Final 4.

Tom is too good and wholesome for this mess. He seems like a Savage or Sarge, in that he's all about team, team, team. That's all well and good at the beginning, but it'll be your undoing around the merge. I'd like to say I think he's got a shot, but I don't really think he does.

Best case scenario: Mid-jury. Most likely: Merge.

Wanda is a fish out of water here. I just don't see how she escapes a triple-boot first episode. She's got spirit, and probably a work ethic to match, but it won't be enough when first impressions are all they're really going by at that stage.

Best case scenario: Pre-jury. Most likely: One of 1st two boots.

Willard is a guy I'd like to see do well. He's playing with house money in this game. If he doesn't stick out (and walking around camp in his undies is NOT helping that cause), endears himself as the tribal elder, and doesn't fall on his face in a the physical challenges, he has a shot. I'd like to see him get a chance to go far in this game. I don't think he will, though. I think he's stuck with a group that won't value him. Shame.

Best case scenario: Late jury. Most likely: Pre-jury.

To sum up...

Likely to be Day-Tripping from the Loser Lodge: Ashlee, Wanda, Bobby Jon, Angie, Jeff, Katie, James, Janu, Caryn, and Willard.

Might Be Tripping, Might Be Scowling: Tom and Jolanda

Likely to Be Scowling from the Jury Box: Coby, Ibrehem, Jenny, Jonathan, Kim, Stephenie, Ian, and Gregg

Fester

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02-03-05, 07:45 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Firstly VS, I want to say that it never ceases to amaze me how perceptive you are. How do you do it?

Basically the only conclusion that I can come to so far is that MB obviously wants the younger, stronger players to survive for a significantly longer time than they have in past seasons. I have read so many articles/intervies etc. where both Probst and MB apparently say that having a whole heap of older players post-merge is boring (which is what has happened since the survivors realised that keeping physical threats around isn't a wise idea). What I don't understand is why MB would think having a whole heap of physically strong, alpha-male (or alpha-female) types would be any more interesting. I don't think MB is stupid enough to think that having a final game play made up of ridiculously similar players would be interesting, thus I think he is aiming to achiever a wider range of player types post merge - THUS the predominantly young cast: Physically strong players will ALWAYS be targets (often one strong player will target another, to eradicate their competition), but with so many strong players this season, there won't be enough time to get rid of them all before the merge happens.

Therefore I don't think Angie, Willard or James (or whoever else doesn't fit the 'strong' bill) are in alot of danger. The only player I am ready to write off is Wanda - no*chance*in*hell.

THen again, my idea will probably be proved wrong within the first ten seconds of the first episode. But I just hope MB had more sense than to think that a merged-tribe made up of mainly strong players will be more interesting.

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02-04-05, 08:37 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I am overwhelmed by the sheer volume of self-proclaimed "flirts" in this season. The only time this worked before was S6. Do you think we'll see an Amazon redux, or do you think all of these personalities will collide when they realize they are not the only ones who showed up with this strategy?

The best case scenarios for the older people will be that all of these younger ones are SO much like each other that they will each themselves alive. This could bode very well for players like Stephanie and Ian who are there to play strong and for the right reasons.

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02-06-05, 09:34 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: TV GUIDE Preview"
I just watched it (and can't wait for the vidcaps)

The first segment featuring the new cast was just Wanda, Tom, and Ian. Wanda's inclusion completely seals her fate, IMO. Tom, is being played as the hero "in danger" and will at least be the first half "star." Ian's inclusion was odd IMO.

Everyone else got their introduction later in the show in one big segment.

Did anyone else see it tonight?

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02-07-05, 11:02 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-05 AT 05:14 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-07-05 AT 04:55 PM (EST)

After watching the TV guide special, you get a little bit more familiar with some of these people. Alot of perceptions that have been "speculated" out there seem true after you watch this. (It is on several more times before Survivor premieres.)
But there are several factors riding on S10. First, you kind of get the impression that they are "overselling" this survivor. Which can be read a couple of different ways. It could be playing into the "survivor changes" or alot of the characters could be "limp noodles"
I do think that Jeffs comments on the castaways are mixed. Some are completely accurate with the role they will carry and others are misleading intentionally, but the trick is, which ones are which.

Ibreham- I think he lacks true charisma. He gives off a "stale" impression. Looks or not, he just does not throw off alot of personality.

Ashlee- She comes off as uncomfortable. She wants to believe she can use the sex appeal, but she does not seem completely comfortable speaking in front of the camera and you get the impression of "waxed fruit" Probable early boot.

Bobby Jon- Have you heard dumber than a box of rocks. Or at least he comes off that way. I understand that James is competing to be the big redneck, but I think BJ is competing for biggest, slow-talking hunk. It is good he was blessed with looks.

Caryn- Bossy, probably picky,maybe boring personality. I do not see her lasting very long. Her age is not really going to come into play. Her personality will though.

Angie- I think she will end up being the true wildcard. She won't be seen as a threat to the females, and the males may find her an ally as far as the male/female part of it goes. I think she will be one that everyone sees as the "underdog"

Coby- May be another wildcard. Depends on his mouth. He has a strong attitude. Could be seen as one that could swing from "alliance to alliance" If he is a good strategist, he may survive for awhile. He does have a mouth on him though.

Greg- He is a "true hottie" because he is not so focused on himself, yet he is good-looking and yet he does not seem to want to over-emphasize it, which can make him more "sexy" especially to the women. Which may get him farther into the game.

Jennifer- Jeff is portraying her as tougher than she looks.
I get the impression that she is stuck on herself, but maybe she will show us different. I think he is trying to sell her. Possibly she has trouble not making enemies. I do not see her as one of the physically strong threats as far as the other women go since they have Jolanda,Stephanie and Caryn.

Jonathon-He is another one that comes off as sexy because he may not even be aware of it. This can work for him. He is a player that comes there understanding the meaning of surviving.

Kate- She was one I planned on rooting for. Still probably will. Reminds me in personality of Kelli Wigglesworth. She could make it far if she keeps control of her chattering.


Kim- She is intelligent and even though she is aware of her looks, she seems to have a strategy. She does not throw off diva vibes initially. I don't think her appearance is what will keep her going. I think there is more to her than that.

Willard- While older, he may get into the game with strategy and while his initial read is one of a little bit of arrogance, he has some weird sense of humor. Gray undies. I am not positive about what I think of him.

Wanda- I don't think her age will be a factor in getting her voted off, as much as her weirdness. And maybe the fact she looks a little too much like John Kerry. They may be afraid they can never take her word for anything. And then again, they may find her interesting because she had like a jumpstart in her life at forty. Of course, that singing is a wee bit "annoying"
Kerry's lookalike may do what he was unable to. Receive an anonymous vote.

Jeff- Too arrogant. His body is great. His ego is certainly not hurting. His personality, well, his personality,
ummmmmmmmmmmm, a little on the Joel side. Possibly, he is a Casanova in his own mind.

Janu- Diva. The thing is right off the bat, I don't like her, but she has one thing people may not realize. Alot of upper body strength. Why do I say this? She is a dancer, but she is a Las Vegas Showgirl that wears big,awkward and sometimes heavy headdresses. She is probably one of the two or three strongest women on Palau. The problem with her is going to be the fact that she is used to a certain lifestyle back home in the town where what goes on, stays there. This could mean she is not going to deal with her castaway days as seemingly easy as she says she will. We will see.

Jolanda- Strongest woman out there. Has in common with Janu the fact she is one of the strongest women and guess what?She is not one of the "young ones" She will probably adapt better than Janu and she will either be able to bond with Janu in some way or despise her. Her bigger problem will be with people perceiving her as a threat.

Stephanie- She is both competitive and cocky. She is probably the "hottest" girl on the island. She is also athletic and is one of the stronger women out there. If she plays the game like I think she might, she will go far. I think she is a Jerri Manthey/Alicia/Sondra cross. Sexy, yet competitive and fit and possibly a little slick.

Tom- Being a firefighter will give him a competitive edge on fear. Which will make him take bigger risks to give his all on challenges. He seems like a good guy. He is a grounded guy, whom if people would listen to, could take himself and theirselves far into the game. He seems like one that would be a good team player with Gregg,Kim,Jolanda,Katie,Caryn,Jonathon,Stephanie and maybe Willard. We will see how many of those end up together.

James- Please, please, please. Make him an early boot.
He is Hee Haw meets Johnny Knoxville gone haywire. He thinks following a persona of the "typical show redneck" means crossing
Big Tom with Jon Dalton. Then taking LSD. No thanks. Castaways do not punish us long.

Angie- Initially, I was not a fan. Still not, but she is looking to play the game. She could surprise the heck out of them. If she plays the right people and plays the game with the right people, she might make final four. I would not have had all the body artwork, but it did not affect her thinking ability.
So to each their own. Will be watching this one.

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02-18-05, 09:22 AM (EST)
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30. "Episode One"
Well Survivor doesn’t disappoint in “tweaking” the concept and now it appears our BIG theme is most definitely Choices and Consequences With that I intend to watch the episodes keeping this in mind with respect to the players and the tribes.

Choices were made from the beginning. Who wants to jump out and swim to shore or stay in the boat. Choices of selected tribe members. Choices in the challenge and naturally choices for boot.

As some know, I enjoy my “lists” as I do feel it has bearing (such as the infamous pecking order challenges) With that, the initial selection could be a handy tool in determining alliances initially struck and/or choices for strategy purposes.

I will preface the selection with the obvious choice of Wanda not being selected and the somewhat interesting non selection of Jonathon. Coby, in his very Amazon Rob way was moving and shaking to get Jonathon out amongst many other strong men. Obviously Coby’s decision was personal as he felt Jonathon did not attempt to even speak with him. The fact that most of the others were not put off by this leads me to believe that Jonathon was like this with pretty much everyone

Ian selects Katie Both seemingly fun people. Ian, who I had good thoughts about pre show picks not for looks but for personality. The interesting point to this pick is Ian had the entire female cast to choose from. I saw no “major” interaction with them yet he chose her over every other woman.

Jolanda picks Bobby Jon Since Jolanda is gone, her rationale does not have much bearing any longer, however, Bobby Jon is now in a minority since we do know that he wanted to keep Jolanda despite the outcome.

Katie picks Tom Again, substance behind the pick as opposed to a cute boy pick or something else? Tom had originally talked with Stephenie about an alliance and Stephenie would probably have been on this tribe if not for being the next picked.

BJ picks Stephenie Interesting selection in terms of what I thought about BJ going into this game. Stephenie I had “liked” initially but in holding with stereotypical behavior, I imagined Bobby picking a cute blonde. Later we see that BJ wants strength on his tribe and Stephenie demonstrated that from the minute she jumped in the water. However, this was not part of any earlier alliance with the two of them as evidenced later by BJ’s vote.

Tom selects Janu Another interesting selection. Janu may not live up to my initial expectation of being a diva immediately. Unless there were conversations we were not privy to, I would imagine Tom selected Janu part/parcel with her demonstration during getting the camp together since he did comment on this, however I think we are not being shown an alliance that Janu perhaps is a part

Stephenie picks Jeff Though I don’t recall anything specific with them talking alone, I would imagine she selected Jeff for strength purpose. Why Jeff instead of picking Gregg for example could possibly be just due to lack of social interaction. Gregg seemed extremely low key and I believe Jeff’s pre show comments indicated Gregg may have problems integrating may have caused Stephenie to select someone she socialized more with.

Janu selects Gregg Strength would appear to be the key factor most likely in Janu’s decision since the younger and stronger men are being whittled down and then it comes down to personality tactics perhaps or so we are led to believe If Gregg is aligned with Tom, Caryn and Coby as was initially demonstrated, is Janu part of this but we are not being shown?

Jeff selects Kim Well I would assume at some point, one of the men or women would select someone they enjoy looking at As we know and had speculated, flirting is going to play a part (based on Jeff’s descriptions) We have not been shown this yet but I would suggest that a nice part of this selection was based on this premise although their voting ended up differently.

Gregg selects Jen With the females dwindling down to Jen, Caryn, Ashlee and Wanda, I’m not extremely surprised with this selection however, my recollection was Gregg forming a union with Tom, Coby and Caryn yet he did not select Caryn. Perhaps he felt that Caryn would be the next selection and wanted to ensure another younger member. If this were another younger male I would suggest his selection was more about physical appearance than anything else. Gregg, however, was not one who Jeff mentioned in that light so Gregg’s selection was probably more about getting a better balance for his tribe (also in light of his commentary later about the other tribe’s strength)

Kim picks James Again, whittling down to lessers of evils. James, I am sure was entertaining as well however, if strength is what they wanted, why not pick Ibe? Has Ibe put people off?

Jen selects Coby With Ibe and Willard left, interesting pick from Jen. Again, you may think that Jen would have selected Ibe with his obvious physical strength which then leads me to speculate that again, perhaps Ibe’s social behavior is less than stellar. Not a good sign for Ibe?

James picks Ashlee Again, with Caryn and Wanda and Angie left, the decision is not unusual. What I did look at was the fact that Ashlee was far down on this list barring any singing, tattoos and age as a factor. Does Ashlee strategy with flirting come into play because she was near bottom?

Coby picks Caryn One of the more interesting selections in that Mark Burnett highlighted the conversation with Coby and Angie and Angie’s confessional. Coby did indeed discuss aligning with Caryn so the selection was not questionable but what was questionable was the showcasing of Coby/Angee “connection” and he overrides it. This was a savvy decision on Coby’s part in that he even advises that he and Angie are the outsiders so to speak. By selecting Angee he would have affirmed this and he didn’t want to do that.

Ashlee picks Ibe The selection is not strange but like Ashlee, Ibe was down on the list. Ibe was also noted by Jeff to perhaps have integration issues and with his vote not conforming with the majority, this may not sit very well for him.

Caryn picks Willard I did smile upon this selection and I appreciated her selection. We can’t be too sure if there was any discussions during the selection that may have prompted this discussion.

Ibe picks Angie No strategy here. It was Angie or Wanda

I plan on keeping an eye on the socialization with some of these picks since any alliance making was seen very quickly in this episode. I do recall again Stephenie being part of the grouping with Tom to align. What happens come merger may be interesting to see. Will Stephenie, if the people she “bonded” with early are still there, go back to them?

Similar to Thailand, the tribes are very different as was their purpose Ian was very pleased with his group that consisted of a nice mix. Ulong seemed to (like Jake) want to consist of physical power which we know can have dire consequences.

Face Time

Interesting story for Angie; certainly and underdog premise. I don’t necessarily think this will shed longevity for her but they are capitalizing on her as long as they have her as they do with “characters”

Ian certainly has the leader role and a GOOD leader. Diplomatic and very subtle. He was everywhere but was not loud; this has always given me long term impressions

Tom, similar to Ian and appears to be partners with Ian, a good “couple”. While I don’t know that Tom gets near the very end (more likely due to his being such a threat overall) I did feel that from what we observed, he will be here for some time.

Coby was a very prominent person. Again I do see Amazon Rob in him. Coby is a perfect player on paper to go far. He is non threatening physically, there are no issues with alpha male problems and he landed on a tribe that would embrace him rather than shirk him. He is a big narrator.

Stephenie I was not surprised this particular female (barring any uniqueness as a person) got sufficient time. I had good vibes about her early on in light of the faces of the other women. She certainly made herself noticed jumping in the water and took control of the voting. Interesting that Jonathon did this as well. Parallels or opposite?

Caryn had some decent face time as well Nothing majorly overt but we saw her more than others. I did note her immediate attempts to instruct. She may have to tow a line at some point if her personality gets a bit overbearing.

James It is without question that James would get sufficient face time as he is a “character/caricature” that Mark Burnett always features. However, in these situations (like Angee) the face time may be misleading in that are they being shown for their “character” or their longevity?

Contradictory Face Time

I was intrigued at the lack of face time for BJ, Ashlee, Janu mainly in part of what the pre show perception of them were and that they were continuously mentioned by Jeff in his interviews. Could these three (or any of these three) be “emergence” people, or will they be “no investment” people. From the standpoint of the first show, Janu may be an “emergence” person as we did see some hints of her where BJ and Ashlee were relatively low key in spite of the descriptions we had of them.

The Others We barely got to know the others except for some brief flashes. Next episode, if they are fleshed out more, will perhaps be a good key.

Things That Make You Say Hmmmmm (In hindsight and maybe foresight?

Katie “That is a gigantic target on your head” (regarding Steph and Jonathon diving in the water)

James “That skinny little boy, he’s a fast bugger” (Will Ian out run the competition?)

Tom “That’s a loser job” (regarding fire) Interesting in that fire IS life on Survivor.

Coby “We can’t let all the young pretty people have the power......” (Coby’s strategy is clear, the young and pretty must go and he already succeeded once)

Ian “I wanted a wise tribe” (Prophecy?)

Observation that Jeff did not (or was not shown to) ask Willard about vulnerability during the selection process as the numbers dwindled. Conscious decision to edit this out?

Ibe “We definitely have an advantage, we are smart but strength will play a part too” (These comments always give me pause as to the downfall of a tribe or person)

Observation that Koror during the challenge........ took fire only. (Fire is life - sustaining tribe OR the downfall since they lost it. This question may be answered next week upon their attempts to retrieve it)

Coby and Stephenie Both had their individual quests and both succeeded. Coby with Jonathon and Stephenie with Jolanda.

Angie and her comments about she’d be happy if she would at least make it past this first Tribal Council (prophecy of being the next eliminated but fulfilling her wish?)

Observation of Ulong during the challenge very “Sucky” Jeff mentioning they are rowing to another island. The young, strong tribe rowing in the wrong direction......

James “A lot of testosterone” (re: tribe) (James did not acknowledge estrogen, perhaps a mistake?)

And from our host himself:

Jeff P. “Stop with the excuses and have a plan or you’ll be back here very soon” (Comments like these ALWAYS give me pause - do we see them yet again next week?)


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-05, 11:35 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Episode One"
THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR!!!!

GREAT POST VS you CUTIE

I agree with you on most, if not all, of what you have written.

I figured Coby for the narrator and a strategist-he didn't pick Angie bc he did not want to stress his/her/their "weirdness." He is a Rob C with a little bit of Hatch thrown in. But he doesn't seem (yet, anyway) to be as conniving as Rob C and Hatch are/were.

I am hoping Angie sticks around, if they go to TC again, IB and BJ both voted with Jo, so the 6 that voted for JO may get rid of BJ and IB first. I think her comment about making it past the first TC may have been edited in for its irony and she lasts over the higher "CHOSEN" ones.

I agree about IB, he must have not interacted with them (similar to Jon). He seemed very quiet and his only confessional was about athleticism, nothing about interaction or strategy... hmmmmm. I hope he sticks around for the EYE CANDY myself, but as for editing, it does not look that great for him.

And it appears CHOICES AND CONSEQUENCES will be the key here. That was stressed throughout. TOm's choice to go to a new home and losing the flint.... What I found interesting is that they did not stress any WAR themes last night. It seemed that the show focused on the alliances of some--Gregg, Coby, Caryn was the most public--but I agree I think Tom and Janu have something going on with each other and Willard too. SO the theme was not war-like but more about alliance building (as in the beginning of WWII??)

After last nite, I'm not sure who is emerging as a "WINNER" but I think Ian has the best shot taking everything together about what I know about editing, etc. WOO HOO another Pittsburgher that looks to do well!!! Me and Geggy really have to apply for this show!!




Handcrafted by RollDdice

WOOHOO VS EDITING THREAD IS BACK!!

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02-18-05, 12:50 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Episode One"
Great observations as always, VS.

Observation that Jeff did not (or was not shown to) ask Willard about vulnerability during the selection process as the numbers dwindled. Conscious decision to edit this out?

I expect that Jeff asked all four of them how they felt, and they only showed Jonathan's and Wanda's responses.


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02-18-05, 04:14 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Episode One"
emydi: Nice to see you!! I hope you are going to keep an "eye" on the eyemai

BR: I agree they asked all four, it was curious to me that Angie, Jonathon and Wanda were shown but not Willard which may or may suggest that his being picked near bottom is ever an issue?

At this moment, we can only stab at projected long term people. I would suggest that in Ulong there are many members that do not take being ordered lightly which may in turn cause an annihilation of their own tribe as was discussed pre season (regarding war) We know what happens when there are two many "strong" personalities. While Angie may, in fact, be a low person on their totem pole, she may end up under the radar due to some wrangling for the job opening of leader of the tribe.

With that, it is conceivable those such Ibe and BJ may be in danger especially in light of voting outside of the majority. Jeff also may be construed as too strong for his own good as well. Relatively safe may be all the women by sheer virtue that they are women.

At Koror, it is harder to determine in light of thier winning and we saw no discord. Willard is sensible as a candidate solely due to age and that an agreement was more/less made between Coby, Caryn and Tom with Ian and Gregg and Janu aboard. Jen may be another candidate depending on "how" they lose.

There is quite a way to go between now and the next episode obviously but those candidates so far appear to have more reasons than not to leave next episode.

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02-18-05, 08:06 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Episode One"
Goodie! I get to play a little on this one! VS, I always look forward to this thread.

I totally agree you've nailed it on the "Choices and Consequences concept". I just have a few things of note that I will be looking for in the upcoming episodes.

The pickem process: I too am wondering about what alliance conversations we were not privy to, and how those conversations could impact the players' opinion of eachother after the pickem. I wish I could find the thread, but I believe Jiffy eluded to alliance talks prior to the tribe split and the impact they will have on day 23 or 33. But since CBS chose to let us in on some, I'm thinking they may have some relevance to what happens down the road.

We were shown Coby and Angie talking. I agree with emydi that Coby "didn't pick Angie bc he did not want to stress his/her/their "weirdness." I think Coby would bond with Angie in a heartbeat outside of this game, but I think he felt that if they were both on the same team, they/he would be easy targets. Hence he didnt pick her. He is playing the game hard, but has risked ever having Angie trust him if they both make it to the merge.

I will be looking to clues as to how Angie's feelings towards Coby develop pre merge for an indication that they just might both make it to the merge to see how the "consequence" of Coby's "choice" plays out.

Tom and Stephanie talked alliance but got split, but not due to their own choices in the pickem. I will be looking to clues indicating that they both make the merge and how they will react being rejoined.

Caryn choosing Willard over Jonathan. I believe this was total strategy on Caryn's part to pick someone who could potentially be a bigger TC target (a weaker looking Willard versus a stronger team player, Jonathan) than she would be. I will look to see if her "choice" of Willard "consequently" results in her leaving before Willard and (potentially caused by Willard).

And on a side note. Again I dont have a link to a quote, but I believe Tom mentioned somewhere that he "followed this one guy around on day one". I believe that to be Ian.

LookeeLoo

Another Dicey Original 2004

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02-18-05, 08:52 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Episode One"
>
>Caryn choosing Willard over Jonathan.
>I believe this was total
>strategy on Caryn's part to
>pick someone who could potentially
>be a bigger TC target
>(a weaker looking Willard versus
>a stronger team player, Jonathan)
>than she would be.
>I will look to see
>if her "choice" of Willard
>"consequently" results in her leaving
>before Willard and (potentially caused
>by Willard).


I was thinking the same thing about Caryn's reason for picking Willard. He seems like an odd choice if you want to win physical challenges. But he would also be seen as the easy boot if you go to TC. And as Coby said... everyone is thinking anyone but me.

I also thought it was interesting we have Tom the fireman talking about fire. He mentions he doesn't want to be the one seen trying to make fire because it is hopeless. Then they decide to just take fire in the challenge and Tom is helping carry it. But now we have Tom talking about how they can't survive without fire. All these fire thoughts with Tom the fireman.

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02-19-05, 11:54 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Episode One"
Speaking of Tom, on one of the threads here at Blows peeps were talking how Tom was the one that made the decision to take the new island. However, lastnight I rewatched the episode and when Jiffy gave them the option there was a second of silence and then 2-3 people said, "that do you think Tom?" and Tom thought for a second and then made the decision. I don't think his tribe is going to blame him for losing the flint because they asked him to make the decision.

Also, after watching a second time it is really funny to me how Ian is a leader without being a leader! Ian had his hand in everything but wasn't very out there about it. I think Ian is one we need to watch out for to be a leader and I agree with VS...Tom and Ian make a great couple to keep an eye on.

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02-19-05, 01:56 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Episode One"
LL, Loree, Vols, great takes on the situations. So glad you are playing here

Very astute on Caryn's selection and no doubt correct In my rose colored way, I would also like to believe Caryn's heart was in the right place

In rewatching the episode, I have no new quotes or sticklers to put since I "think" I may have gotten everything and I'm still pretty sure on who is in danger on each tribe.

Ulong again, seems too busy worrying about who has the audacity to order them around. Their discussions in voting off Jolanda were primarily focused on a "how dare she" "we can lead ourselves" "I don't like to be told what to do" premise. This mentality will never be productive. Already discussed in past Survivors is the "too many chefs spoil the soup" Ulong seems destined for this.

In that regard, will BJ and Ibe be next because of their dissension in voting off Jolanda? Or is a bigger issue at hand?

Who wants to lead, who tries to lead and who accepts the leading? Again, what consequences occur based on these choices?

Angie is in a much better position than she thinks. When there are too many BIG people, the meek get by. She will most likely be "entertained" as a boot candidate over and over but get passed over by someone there who is stepping out of line. This is what usually happens in a tribe with too many "A" personalities.

The other "strong" personalities there that were given face time were Stephenie and James However, I feel, as already mentioned that Stephenie's pre tribe alliance formations need to flesh out or else I don't think they would have necessarily been mentioned. James is a rich character who will be featured regardless; those "characters" can be misleading. However I do think James should be relatively safe this episode

Jeff is another possibility and it is possible that the upcoming focus on Kim/Jeff is enough to set up Jeff for a boot. Low visibility in an episode does not necessarily indicate they need to be there longer.

If Ibe and BJ handle themselves accordingly considering the vulnerable position they may be in, they should be okay. Stephenie may be fine because she may be able to utilize some of the other females.

I'm concerned about Jeff's position if only because he is a strong member AND he will be a focus on next week's episode with his "bonding" with Kim.

At Koror again, they will have to deal with the environment and the choices made in that camp. However, there is a cohesive nature to this tribe. If there is a big focus on them and they end up not going to Tribal Council; we may see them there the following week.

Willard may in fact be that boot for obvious reasons. I feel too strongly that Tom, Ian and Coby will be there for awhile.

Janu is interesting to me. I'm quite sure there were people working hard and doing fantastic things but they made sure the audience saw Janu schooching up that tree with Tom's admiration. With editing, I find that sometimes seemingly insignificant events hold more meaning. The question is to figure out which ones are significant and which are shown purely for filler. Something with that particular scene struck me with regard to Janu and her getting further than I expected.

If we don't seem more of Jenn in the next episode or so, I'm inclined to think she is not there for any lengthy duration. I know, I know, Darrah! That does not happen very often so I usually tend to follow editing and character development that has occurred more often than it doesn't.

To reiterate what I mentioned the other day, on a proposed conjecture of those going home, I'm giving Jeff a low rank (more than BJ and Ibe for now mainly because we know Jeff will be featured next week) with the two other men as candidates also. Koror? I don't think we will see them there yet as Ulong is showing to be a very fractured tribe. Koror's focus next week will be perhaps about their choices with the environment. If they do visit TC, however, Willard (mainly because of the typical age factor) would be my first suggestion but I'm a little unclear on how I feel about Caryn as well.
Looking forward to more observations!

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02-19-05, 02:56 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Episode One"
VS, I have not jumped in prior to now as I seem to see things in the same vein as you, and you my dear, can write it all down so much more eloquently than I! I agree with your assessments, in total. In fact I think you have nailed the Ulong tribe when you ponder Koror going to TC with the statement, I don't think we will see them there yet as Ulong is showing to be a very fractured tribe. Bingo, if you take the assessments that you have made regarding how fractured a tribe Ulong is, with Koror having a more cohesive nature, coupled with the warning Jiffy gave Ulong at tribal counsil, something along the lines of unless you get a plan and stick to it, you will be back, I think we could indeed expect to see Ulong back at TC next ep.

I think the theme of actions and their consequences is indeed the prevalent theme for the series. Already we are seeing choices and consequences....Ulong choosing to try and get all of the the supplies through the first IC and failing(using your brains will get you farther than using just your brawn), choosing to go to a new unknown camp in leui of a known adequate camp, will lead to unexpected hurdles to cross....losing our reward flint, sleeping or not sleeping with rats....etc.

Well done so far VS, can't wait for more character development! I totally agree in a tribe of alphas, the under the radar or formidable follower will fare longer. I'd be willing to bet that Angie indeed lasts longer than a few of the alphas in Ulong.

I have also been very very impressed with Ian. He is not an in your face guy and he seems humble when he wins. He's encouraging and he totally got the rowers in the Koror boat together with excellent instruction on how to paddle while he took the major task of steering. He will be one eagle scout that will be a great source of strength and solidity to the Koror tribe. I am firmly in the "Go Ian Go" camp at this point. And he's so young! A remarkable addition to the Survivor contestants, imo. I look for the other men in his tribe to bond with him quite well as well as the ladies. He also seems very open to the differences in others, which I think will endear Coby to him.


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02-19-05, 07:16 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Episode One"
VS, like many others I so so look forward to your post and thoughts. Very insightful. First off, I'm no Kraut or Brown expert spoiler here, but I do see Koror being just as fractured as Ulong.

I see three distinct groups of three on Koror. On one side you have the obvious connection between Tom, Ian, and Katie. The pick'em proved their fondness for one another. On the side are Coby, Caryn, and Willard (the outcast feelers). Coby and Caryn have a clear connection and Willard might be along for their ride. Jennifer, Gregg, and Janu are a group of three who will be the swing voters on this tribe.

For Tom, Ian, Katie or Coby, Caryn, Willard to control the game up until the merge they must get at least two of the swings on their side. Or another scenario would be for the two strong groups of three to team up to pick off a swing voter or two and then use the remaining as a fourth vote. I'm leaning more towards the social skills of Ian, Katie, and Tom being able to pull in two swing voters next episode for a group of 5. Both Gregg and Jennifer might want to keep the tribe strong for future challenges and I,K,T would be their likely choice as to who could best help them not to go to tribal council.

Like with young alpha males, I do believe that there is going to be a showdown at TC between the older alpha males, Tom and Willard. They are one anothers biggest threats on the tribe and there is room for only one older wise male for tribe members to go to for advice. I'm probably dead wrong but hey I took a shot


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02-21-05, 01:25 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Episode One"
A while back,we had a very insightful description of the Nash equilibrium theory and how it applies to the survivor game. If I follow what was explained, I see Korror in danger of self-destruction because of its many leaders. I counted 4, Tom and Coby of course but also Ian and even Caryn who isn't acting as a follower. As far as alliances go, I think Gregg has already decided to align himself with Coby but Gregg doesn't fit the follower mold.

Ulong votes were organized by Kim but she has some work to do in order to become the sole leader of the tribe. Stephanie particularly is not a follower but cannot be a leader yet because of the error she made going to Bobby Jo to get rid of Jolanda. The only way Jeff gets voted out in episode 2 as the early prediction as it, is if Stephanie breaks the budding alliance of Kim + Jeff + James + Angie + Ashley. If she does then Ulong also is in trouble.

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02-22-05, 11:17 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: Episode One"
I'm giving Jeff a low rank (more than BJ and Ibe for now mainly because we know Jeff will be featured next week) with the two other men as candidates also.

I don't think Ibrehem and Bobby Jon are going to be in danger because they voted for Angie instead of Jolanda. It wasn't about saving Angie; Stephenie wanted Jolanda out because Jolanda was bossy and Stephenie felt she had cost them the challenge.

Ibe and BJ both seem low-key. As you say, with the dynamics we are seeing in Ulong, it appears that those who try to dominate and (as a result?) are blamed for losses will be the ones who are targetted first. Jeff seems somewhat impetuous and might try to assume the "leadership" with Jolanda gone.


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02-22-05, 01:23 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Episode One"
Well noted, BR. Jolanda indeed pointed the finger to Jeff as the leader when they got in their boat to retrieve their flag at the end of the IC, thus blaming him for the tribe loss. Perhaps this week Jeff will direct the IC again all for naught and once again Stephenie will point the finger of blame at him....and bye bye Jeff.

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02-19-05, 02:29 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Episode One"

>I also thought it was interesting
>we have Tom the fireman
>talking about fire. He
>mentions he doesn't want to
>be the one seen trying
>to make fire because it
>is hopeless. Then they
>decide to just take fire
>in the challenge and Tom
>is helping carry it.
>But now we have Tom
>talking about how they can't
>survive without fire. All
>these fire thoughts with Tom
>the fireman.

I thought it was interesting that Tom used the words "it's a loser job" in referring to the fire, especially considering it's a fireman. An editing hint that Tom will be a 'loser' in the near future?



Scratch and sniff

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02-22-05, 02:45 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Episode One"

I thought Tom had said 'it's a losing job', as in 'a tough battle'. He appeared to understand how difficult it is to build a fire that way, and didn't want to waste his strength on something fruitless. His eyes were set on the first challenge already, knowing that Survivors are almost always offered fire if they win the challenge.

Just my take on things, dear Pepe. When watching the show, I didn't see his comment as being negative.


Wheeza
though it occurs to me now that you probably have your caption setting on your TV turned on, so I bet you saw the word, huh.

Wheeze * Everything In Between

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02-24-05, 01:05 AM (EST)
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60. "RE: Episode One"
I agree Lookeeloo.

I think editing proves that producers wouldn't have shown us the Angie/Coby "alliance" unless it was going to become an issue later on. I think it proves that both Coby and Angie are primed to maybe make it to at least the merge where his betrayal can be futher dramatized. Go Angie!


However, I don't neccessarily agree with this statement:

"We were shown Coby and Angie talking. I agree with emydi that Coby "didn't pick Angie bc he did not want to stress his/her/their "weirdness." I think Coby would bond with Angie in a heartbeat outside of this game, but I think he felt that if they were both on the same team, they/he would be easy targets. Hence he didnt pick her. He is playing the game hard, but has risked ever having Angie trust him if they both make it to the merge."

I feel Coby didn't pick Angie out of peer pressure. Together, they would have made a great alliance, but Coby couldn't see this. He was blinded by the excitment of the moment and he chose someone considered a "safer" choice (as viewed by the rest of the team).
I don't think Coby is playing the game hard... but rather stupidly, otherwise he would have noticed that it takes more than a few tatoos or sexual orientation to be considered an "Outkast" on this show.

Hey Yaaaa....Hey Yaaaa....

I think it was edited to bring a showdown/confrontation later on in the game.


Braveheart

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02-21-05, 05:42 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Episode One"
The war theme has been put aside in favor of the area reclaming what was once hers, despite the great battles that once occured there.

Like you VS, I see choices and consequences theme being put front and center.
1.Jonathan chooses to swim instead of staying with the boat and he is ultimately not picked.
2.Ian chooses a wise tribe.
3.Jolanda choosing to take to many objects while the other tribe choose only the fire. This played a role in Jo being voted out first.
4.Tom choosing to go to a different island, resulting in the boat being tipped and losing the fire to the ocean.

The older tribe has the potential of an older person pairing up with a younger person in the tribe. This has always been a successful pairing in Survivor. Keep this one in the back of your mind.

The Katie and Tom quotes don't bode well for them.

If I'm not mistaken there wasn't a single negative quote or image associates with Ian...hmmmm.

Great job of getting this thread started again VS.


DRONES

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02-21-05, 08:38 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Episode One"
fp No matter if I stated what you think or not, I always welcome your insight!

db: interesting thoughts on feeling Koror is fractured as well. This is why I love this type of thread as the viewers can always see different things.

I see three distinct groups of three on Koror. On one side you have the obvious connection between Tom, Ian, and Katie. The pick'em proved their fondness for one another. On the side are Coby, Caryn, and Willard (the outcast feelers). Coby and Caryn have a clear connection and Willard might be along for their ride. Jennifer, Gregg, and Janu are a group of three who will be the swing voters on this tribe.

Your analysis is interesting. In my selection of the tribes I posted my thoughts on why who was picked where as it may give some insight on who is with who and who is low on the totem pole. Tom, Ian, Coby, Caryn, Gregg and Stephenie were all seen discussing or being discussed a an alliance. Therefore, I do feel this is why those selections were made (Stephenie missed out due to being picked by Ulong) I do still believe that "story" will play out or there wouldn't have been a focus on same.

Tom picking Janu primarily due to his observations with Stephenie standing there was no surprise. I would also not be surprised if Tom mentioned to Stephenie that perhaps they should "invite" Janu into their fold as well. Ian picking Katie FIRST mainly leads me to believe that there may have been a discussion with the two of them we were not privy to (hidden pair?)

At this point, I mainly look at Willard and Jen as two picked outside an alliance contention. I found it strange that Gregg did choose Jen (over Caryn) which then makes me question if Gregg did find her appealing.

It will be interesting to see if your theory plays out and we should keep an eye on that.

pepe - Tom certainly has a lot of fire surrounding him, the irony of his occupation. Fire we know is life though Tom deems it negatively. While they may perhaps recover their "fire" how will this play out for them as individuals? Tom I do feel is in good shape right now though his deeming fire as a useless job in the context of the symbolism may not bode well for him

drones, I've been waiting for you as well

The older tribe has the potential of an older person pairing up with a younger person in the tribe. This has always been a successful pairing in Survivor. Keep this one in the back of your mind.

If I'm not mistaken there wasn't a single negative quote or image associates with Ian...hmmm

We do love the May/December romances They do NOT have to be the Elisabeth/Roger variety either. Ian and Tom may be this couple; time will tell.

I too did not see anything about Ian in the negative regard. Considering he won immunity and was shown to us as a definite leader, it is with high expectation that I have Ian. Only James made note of the "fast little bugger"

There has been upcoming previews again of poor Angie. I'm not ready to shoo her away yet.

I wanted to also add this quote:

Coby "That's a good choice" (when BJ was selected) Again, throwaway or do the two of them meet up again. Coby apparently likes BJ but I always question why some commentary was left in when really it wasn't necessary.

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02-21-05, 08:52 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Episode One"
Looks like someones got a crush on BJ ;)
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44. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I won't say much about all the others because I agree with most of everything written about each player, with one exception.

I really think that James is going deep into the game and could very easily be the winner of Survivor Palau. His pre-game quote "I am going to be the first redneck to win the million dollars" and the way he was edited as a strong guy yet goofy protector type, puts him in good stead with all types. He can relate, and he can empathize, he can compete, he can state whats on his mind.

As for a final 2 partner...Coby is my leading pick for sitting next to him. Coby has shown already that he can influence the vote, but he also told us in pregame confessionals that he can be a bitch too. Depending on how he can maintain his relationships (he already lost a friend in Angie by not picking her for tribe), could make him the perfect F2 partner.


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45. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I am beginning to agree with you KO and the rosy future for James. He seems to be playing the good ole boy role but if you watch closely he sits back and watches everything going on around him. This combination of brains and brawn and the good ole boy charactor may be unique. This triple threat just might help him to go real far.RedBeard
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47. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I think he is safe on Ulong for now. But a tribal switch may do him in. He reminds me a lot of Chris...Chris when he ended up with females became the one they went to. James already seems to be who a lot of the women go to on U.

Katie is consistent, she did so well last time with Chris!!

I'm hoping for Ian and the editing thus far supports my early favorite. Now if Ian would shave his head.....


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48. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Ian is my fave Koror. To me he is playing the Chris role on Koror to Toms Sarge. At this point in the game you dont want to be seen as the leader. Ian seems to be able to stand back and not make waves. Great traits in a second in command. Between the two of these men Koror should be in great shape. I feel that both will make it a long way in this game.RedBeard
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50. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
LAST EDITED ON 02-22-05 AT 01:43 AM (EST)

VS I found your editing analysis on Choices and Consequences to be quite intriguing.

It led me to this quote by Gregg while speaking with Caryn and Coby, "Honestly I am not leaning towards anyone".

Additionally, when Janu selects Greg JP asks, to an upset looking Janu "Are you upset?", She responds, "No its just kind of weird." Does Janu regret her choice?

If this season is about choices, can anyone stand uncommitted?

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61. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"

emydi, still pining for Chad lolol

I agree about Ian as I think we all do at this point. Ian appears to be able to handle the social aspects of this game which is just as important (if not more so) than any other aspect.

I think as it appears, Koror on the whole, is in good shape. Obviously SOMEONE will be booted at some point but there were no indicators from the first episode that they are in danger.

Ulong has many suspects and unless we see the show, we can never know what may cause a boot selection so we, based on the editing, can only presume who is more likely to go than others. Angie is the prime target per Mark Burnett. The tribe as a whole, however, are not fond of people trying to take over (which is a commonn boot reason) but there could be someone who is responsible for losing the Immunity Challenge and they may go. Now with the romance involved, someone may not appreciate that.

It seems for the most part that there are more who are unsafe on Ulong than safe. Based on editing, Stephenie appears to be someone MB invested time in. James, a great character seems safe but one never knows with the "character editing" Angie's editing is deceiving. Is a rose just a rose or do we have the Eliza situation...... target, safe, target, safe. With so many strong personalities, there appears bigger fish to fry. Those with hardly any showing would appear to be safe BUT the role of editing can only be used if there is something to work with.

While I mainly confine myself to this thread, obviously we have spoilers. This thread is not based on them so what appears in the editing and what is presumed by spoilers can be vastly different, however, I find this way more interesting We also try to see the long term game more than a weekly boot so with that Stephenie, based on the editing is the safest. Angie appears to be narrating her PERSONAL position but I feel she is safe if only because of the other dynamics going on. James appears also to be marginally safe as well. The others at this time can only be questioned until we see a bit more of them.


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49. "James is my early pick"
i love me a redneck that can weave a good tale and play a shrewd game.

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51. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Now, come on, Katie. Don't we already know that the winner must come from either the northeast US or the west coast?

Well, except for Tina, she was the exception. An Chris, he was D'oh!

Funny how we haven't seen that poster again....


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52. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
LOL, yeah Stanley.

I also remembered the other bit of irony in the editing that makes me think James is the winner. Tom stated that he didn't want to get stuck trying to start the fire because it was "such a losing job", and then they flashed to a shot of James trying to build a fire and having the bow break. How ironic would it be for the guy who picked a losing task like that to be the eventual winner? Plus we as viewers already know that building fire is a losing job, so why show us Tom's words?


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55. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I think we needed Tom's words to show us why a fireman wasn't trying to help start a fire. But to me James has pre-jury/soon after merge written all over him.


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57. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I'm glad to see some new "faces" here and hope (and demand! ) to see more of your thoughts in the weeks ahead

WLR - Choices and Consequences (Does anyone else immediately think Pride and Prejudice ) apparently is the BIG theme with "war" as a secondary theme more/less in the setting of this season. I am prepared for Mr. Burnett to utilize this theme quite often with challenges, rewards and "twists" (Let's Make a Deal?)

Your mention (I hope I remember correctly that it was you) regarding Gregg's statement and the uncommitted is interesting. Does waffling or riding a fence cause a problem for those who do it or will it actually benefit them? We should know more about this in upcoming episodes

KO, always nice to see you I appreciate exactly what you say about James. Again, I'm divided on this contestant primarily due to how MB highlights his characters. For those like Angie, Coby, James and the like, we are apt to see more of them precisely because of their uniqueness which then makes me suspicious of their longevity. However, this is not always the case such as with Tom as a prime example. Tom of Africa would have been showcased if he went early or late (as he did). But, because of the "character" and highlight of same, I am hesitant to feel solid about their length in the game as the editing on them can be misleading.

I can say, after the first episode that his length of stay may be a little longer than I speculated BEFORE the show started in light of how the dynamics of Ulong seem to be unfolding. However, I'm still not sure on the surface that his "personality" will get him toward the end game. His quote was definitly noteworthy of course . His editing progress will definitely be one that I will apy attention to as well as some of the other major "characters"

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58. "On the flipside..."
...when I saw Tom say "it's a loser's job", I noticed that (I think, at least), all 4-5 people shown around the fire eventually ended up on Ulong. There was James and Kim and I think Steph and... well, I can't remember, but I watched it twice and was pretty sure they were all Ulong. I noted that as a possible foreshadowing quote, subtle as it was. This could suggest that Ulong go on a losing streak.

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59. "RE: On the flipside..."
Yes, the people working on fire were all Ulong plus Jonathan.


L-R: Stephenie, Ashlee (leaning over with her back to us), Bobby Jon, Kim (barely visible), James and Jonathan.

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62. "Episode Two"
Again, forgive my longwind statements but we had quite a bit yesterday

The low man on the totem pole pick em selection would have been very useful in glancing at for this boot selection. Ashlee was a selection made low and all our discussions prior to the show reflected her as someone with short term status. Since we normally look at long term status here, Ashlee was not someone who was a long term possibility. Now that the members of Ulong are shown more in terms of alliances; we have a better idea of who is with who, HOWEVER, the main premise of this thread is more about each contestant’s editing and the long term projections so let's see how they fare so far.

Editing Patterns

Last season I had mentioned a pattern that “seems” to be consistent throughout each season. A potential winner usually is shown either “redeemed” in some aspect (example: Jenna) or “playing the game” consistently whether positive/negative (Brian, Richard, Chris, Sandra) or if not a clear and apparent game player is shown essentially neutral/positive throughout (Ethan, Tina) Vecepia we can determine was an exception due to the lack of visible editing. This is NOT tried and true, however there is a consistency.

With that, from this episode, there are a number of people who are readily identified but there are “catches” People with stories (so to speak; those who enjoy this thread have an idea of what I mean ) “generally” last a good portion of the game but don’t win (Leann, Rupert, Twilla, Rory and so forth)

I have rarely seen (as discussed last season) a winner shown extremely positive then negative. Chris and Brian may had negative dips in the latter part of the season but if we look back throughout their time, they CLEARLY showed us they were going to play this game which we know by now involves lies and manipulation.

With that I am now noting the levels of shifting in visibility and behavior. How this plays out long term should be interesting.

Visibility of Players

Some of the players have been consistent in their visibility. Only those that have essentially changed are being noted. Bobby Jon was seen quite a bit more this time around as opposed to his last showing. He was seen in a neutral light in my opinion. Aggressive and a bit tempered in the challenge but positive about Angie and diplomatic in speaking about the boot candidate. Kim was finally shown and hovered more in the negative light Although she participated in the RC fairly well, a big deal was made by her tribe over her lack of participation in the IC coupled with the mostly cynical comments about her flirtation with Jeff. She was also a boot candidate. Jeff’s visibility was raised as well and fairly negative. We saw his glee over Koror not having flint and his wish that it isn’t found along with his “issues” over Kim being a nominee for boot.

Due to the visibility “lift” this could indicate an upcoming problem for Jeff and Kim. Bobby essentially was not shown negative (challenge aggression is not a negative portrayal of the PERSON) so with that, he may last longer than the above two individuals.

Ibe was practically non existent in this episode. I would suspect even at this time we would have seen some of Ibe. Ibe had an opportunity to be shown discussing Jolanda’s vote and his concern over Ashlee’s wish to leave yet it wasn’t. In light of this, Ibe appears to be someone who may be there for awhile but not long term.

At Koror, there were no MAJOR changes in the amount of visibility however, Caryn was definitely shown in a negative aspect. As we discussed pre show, Caryn’s personality could get the better of her and it appears this will happen as evidenced by next week’s promo. This “dip” never seems to bode well in the long term for players hence I would not be inclined to believe Caryn is at the end (her character description led us also to have that idea about her despite “moms do well”) I will not touch on visibility with the rest of Koror at this time.

Playing The Game, Stories To Tell, No Story/No Game

This worked fairly well last season so I will take a “stab” on what I see right now

Ulong

Stephenie and James clearly are shown playing the game. This usually is a positive aspect for long term, DEPENDING on how they are shown as time goes on. If it stays fairly consistent, their prospects are good. Thus far, neither have strayed from a clear and concise game play.

Angie: Our story contestant Usually I give them high marks for awhile. Once their “story” appears to dwindle, I look for their demise. Angie is someone MB wants us to root for but usually we don’t see a win from them. If her story “changes” then I would suggest she may be gone not too long after.

Ibe: No story/No Game: Clearly Ibe is someone who could be shown more. I mentioned two aspects we could have seen but we didn’t. They are not relevant but if Ibe is someone who has longevity, I would suspect his “character” would be fleshed out more or humanized so to speak. At this time, Ibe appears to be someone going sooner rather than later.

Bobby, Kim and Jeff - Somewhat murky in terms of how much they are playing and not much story as I think Kim and Jeff's "romance" is purely more about tribe dynamics than a story for them Since Jeff and Kim came off more negative than positiveespecially since we did not see anything really on Episode 1, I have to conclude they are not long for the game. Bobby, on the other hand, may stay a bit longer if his edit continues as it is. However,again, we saw virtually nothing of this character despite all the pre show hype on him which I suspect was more to have viewers interested in tuning into the show.

Koror

At this point it is hard to determine the level of game playing for a tribe who has not lost thus far however, some on this tribe have offhandedly mentioned thoughts of what they wanted which could be indicative of future game playing.

Ian has a very positive, uplifting edit and it continues. It has been consistent thus far and it is quite evident Mark Burnett wants us to like this person. This gives me pause. With the “bad taste” that was left from last season, it raises my eyebrow that Ian is definitely a long term person. Clearly after the Veceipia edit, MB showed us immediately Brian from beginning to end. I wonder perhaps if now Mark Burnett is adjusting for last season and giving us a very likeable winner? Ian’s comments are left in; very positive and uplifting; there is reason for that. There has not been much regarding game playing but Ian had made note of what he wanted in a tribe as well as his determinationin the game (winning the run for the necklace, his quest for the fire, etc.) Mark Burnett could not give us more commentary from Ian

“It was like running a marathon and coming in first place” and “we lost the challenge but won the day” and “We are the Bad News Bears and we will come back”

Ian is a great narrator for his “little tribe that could”

Tom: We have already established a union between Ian and Tom. Tom clearly is being given a positive edit as well. I get a "Jake feeling from Tom" Notice how the decision of the camp fell on Tom’s shoulders by Caryn and quickly was shut down because Tom is not there to be “not liked” Tom’s edit is a difficult one, however, because there is always that one person we really like but eventually gets booted because frankly, they are just too well liked.

Coby: A clear game player from the first episode but nothing to play for in the second episode but it was established that he plays this game I think it is fairly certain he may be “key” when the tribe goes to Tribal Council for the first time and will stir the pot. At that point, we will see the extent of what his editing is all about but regardless that he wasn’t shown as much, I still believe he will be there for quite some time.

What about the others? Katie, fairly consistent in helping to narrate, but shown negatively in the challenge. On Ulong, this would be a death wish; on Koror, may not be immediately. Why not? Usually such a bad showing at a challenge would be discussed by someone/anyone yet we did not hear anything about this. The “older and wiser tribe” may “forgive” challenge mishaps but probably will not forgive discord. However, since Caryn was shown being negative about Tom, who is not to be shed in a bad light, Katie, should win this battle. Frankly, I see Katie as someone who lasts a good while but not at the end game.

Gregg and Janu remain consistent. No real game playing shown but negativity not a factor. Again, Janu has been raised in my opinion despite the thrown in rat situation which clearly bothered most of them. Jen again not shown in playing nor a story which is not the best scenario for her. Willard, no story, no game. MB did leave in his “wise” comment to Katie to prevail in the challenge. Again, does this help Willard stay longer than the normal “eldest boot” scenario. Ian deems wise as positive therefore will Willard lasts a bit longer than one of the more athletic members? I still do not consider any long term prospects for Willard but he may out last one of the others a bit.

The Alliances

Ulong has shown a division which should be interesting. James and Steph lead the way with Angie (wisely) going with the best scenario as well as Bobby. The decision ultimately rested with Ashlee but we saw the way paved by Steph and James.

Ibe a man unto himself. No known alliances, voting decisions clearly based on his wants/wishes and again, no story, no game playing. I sense a FBI agent situation

Jeff and Kim - an alliance of romance. With nothing to showcase this, no buildup and just a brief glimmer; I see it heading south. The discord shown about this romance instead of amusement does not appear favorable. I’ve seen posters wonder if this is a Rob/Amber scenario. Clearly it is not edited the same way. We saw buildup, fun, questions by Rob/Amber as well as the enjoyment/questions/amusement/concern by their tribe. Jeff and Kim are no Rob and Amber and I don’t expect their game playing to be either.

Koror: At this time, we can mainly go on the original pick em to determine close alliance. Interestingly again, nothing ever shown between Ian and Katie yet Ian picked Katie first. It was already established that Tom and Ian have one as well (recall JP’s comments about Tom/Ian using the buddy system) and Katie picked Tom. I would suggest this is a close alliance. Caryn and Coby with Gregg were seen pre tribe and Gregg’s selection of Jenn would be a vote with them.

I would suggest Janu would be inclined to go with Ian/Tom/Katie/Gregg and I would think Willard will do what is best for him. Ironically, Caryn picked Willard perhaps as a shield for her; would it not be interesting then if Caryn is booted BEFORE Willard.

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmm?

A potential head to head batter with James and Jeff?

Jeff P. after the RC: While everyone was very excited about their fire, Jeff threw it and Stephenie caught it though it seemed that James was grabbing for it (Again, fire is life, Steph and James both game players but indicative Steph may prevail over James then)

Despite Ibe and Bobby voting to keep Jolanda, nothing mentioned about their feelings of Jolanda going nor any potential concerns THEY have about their longevity.

Second episode where we saw subtle hints of Kim’s potential wrath. First episode about betraying her she will pretty much kill someone and this episode pegging James down about her staying or going. When Kim does go, it won’t be pretty.

Angie: “A two person alliance is a strong alliance” (Angie needs a little help in the arena of playing the game, however interesting potential foreshadow of a current two person alliance failing miserably.

James: “Kim is gone......... for sure” and the humorous “Nobody is telling people what to do round here, we are not going to follow a leader, we are Americans and we are going to follow a democracy (while they then pan to a tribe of completely inept looking Ulong. The search for lead and apparently a clue continues )

Bobby: Indicating that Angie’s performance “changed the moral of the tribe” (Ulong, like the audience roots for Angie though underdog is never really a good thing on Survivor)

Stephenie: “I don’t know what happens in a tie” (THIS issue again Will it play out in a tie or will “they” keep avoiding one?

And of course, Jeff P. “Get a CLEAR goal first, THEN harness that energy” (Last week he spoke about them very negatively and they landed at TC again, his commentary MAY indicate they do manage to get a clearer goal and not see TC the next time)


To revisit my pre show thoughts on the people and how they are faring

Koror: Caryn, Willard and Jen are the most vulnerable at Koror in my estimation. In terms of editing, I think we may see the irony in Caryn picking Willard only for Caryn to go before Willard. Jen may stay out of harm’s way if there is a battle. If not, her lack of characterization long term does not bode well for me. At this point, Ian, Tom, Gregg, Janu, Katie and Coby are faring the best but due to past editing patterns, I'm not sure about Katie, Tom, Gregg and Janu just yet at the end game

Ulong: Stephenie and James right now are better projections for long term (though I still have concern over James because he is such “character typing” I still believe Stephenie needs to reunite with her pre tribe potential alliance to continue that strategy story.

Due to Bobby’s rise in visibility and seemingly positive, I don’t think he will be gone just yet however, there is concern for me over any long term prospects but I revisit Coby’s remark: “Good choice” Will Coby see Bobby again? Angie’s continuing storyline is positive and I do wonder if she and Coby will also re-visit their pre tribe bonding. However, I do feel Angie will go out with the audience loving her but no end game.

Kim, Jeff and Ibe are the most vulnerable in terms of editing. We may have a Nick situation for Ibe but it is in my opinion he can’t win. We may just see him being blown out gently like a candle at some point while Kim and Jeff will have more “fireworks” concerning their demise.

I would love to hear from everyone else how they are visualizing the way this story is playing out.


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63. "Coby"
Is Coby getting a Chris edit?

Last season, Chris was very visible in Ep. 1 and then completely disappeared in Ep. 2. This year, Coby has done the same thing. It will be interesting to see whether we ever see Coby making suggestions to Tom and Tom acting upon them as if the ideas were his own.


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64. "RE: Episode Two"
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 12:20 PM (EST)

Excellent analysis as usual VerucaSalt.

While I'm tempted to pat myself on the back for actually correctly guessing the Ashlee boot last night, credit has to go to you for picking up her vulnerability in your first post in this thread....

Just a couple notes of my own to add to your insight:

I thought the huge focus in editting on the Ulong tribe (we say nothing of Koror once they recovered their flint and started fire) may very well confirm the spoiler that is floating out there suggesting Koror is setting themselves up for an early immunity run.

Also - while James and Stefanie are clearly shown as the two biggest game-players over on Ulong, I get a bit of a Lex feel for the James edit - i.e. I think he is likely to overplay the game. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.

As for the Jeff/Kim vs. Romber comparisons - I agree with previous posts that this will not work out. We've already seen players pointing it out, and I have a feeling the players in the game will not risk having that go too far. Also, Kim's negative edit regarding her challenge performance is telling. I didn't see any comments about Willard doing nothing but swimming slowly....

I think Caryn is clearly getting the most negative edit on the Ulong side, and agree that Ian/Tom may be the duo to watch long-term, while Caryn may try to stir the pot. Willard may actually be the first to go, allowing the evil of Caryn to establish itself (I give Caryn the staying power everyone's favorite Jerri)

Keep up the good work, and if you ever figure out what the editor's are doing with Ibe, let us know!!!

MEmacmur

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65. "RE: Episode Two"
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 12:52 PM (EST)

aeth: Very interesting comment about Coby. I do agree that Coby is pure game playing as he did the "moment he got on the beach" I had mentioned earlier that I had a very Amazon Rob feeling from Coby which makes me wonder if he fares the same way as Rob. Chris was very very subtle in what he did, Coby more open about his intentions like Rob with a flair for the dramatic I do still believe Coby does well but I envision his "antics" like Rob may catch up with him coming down the pike.

memacur - Congratulations!! I normally don't do weekly thoughts but high praise definitely you deserve

Your comments on the people are very insightful. You may be quite right that Caryn is being "set up" so to speak. I love irony in this show; perhaps that is why I envision Willard nailing Caryn's coffin shut when he was probably chosen as her cushion

But there may be a longer term prospect as you suggest however it is forseaable that Caryn should not win.

I plan on re watching the show as I usually do and naturally there will be more "stuff" I missed. While you mention about a spoiler with Koror(?) it is still unclear to me who may go to TC this week though the editing may suggest that Koror finally sees TC (and again, I don't pay much attention to the information that is put out there in the spoiling sense) but with those in terms of editing, the past post of mine fleshes out who is definitely vulnerable

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66. "RE: Episode Two"
I noticed that in the opening credits, the players are listed by teams and Jonathan is placed in the middle of the Ulong tribe while Wanda is seen in the middle of the Korror tribe. I hope this doesn't mean they come back as outcasts later on. If not why not show them at the end of the list?
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68. "RE: Episode Two"
Well, if nothing else, considering the alternating male/female aspect of the pick 'em game, if they hadn't been eliminated, Jonathan would have been on Ulong and Wanda on Koror.


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67. "RE: Episode Two"
I think we the preview of the next episode the editors are trying to lull the viewers into believing there is trouble at Kor and that they may be going to TC. It is misdirection away from Ulong. Caryn seems to be the one getting the setup for Kor but I believe Ulong will go to TC once again.


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69. "RE: Episode Two"
Well, you're certainly right about spoilers needing to be taken with a large grain of salt... I read them for fun, but rely much more on the actual show editting to determine the real long-term status for players.

You raise an interesting point about Willard possibly being the player who could eliminate Caryn. He (like Ibe) is perplexing me with his editting so far.

On one hand, since in pre-show hype JP mentioned that this Survivor may have the most water-related challenges of all, he seems like a likely boot candidate early since his swimming is clearly a liability.

On the other hand, during last nights reward challenge, it was Willard who was shown giving the advice that finally allowed the incompetent vine-swinger Katie to finally make it to the platform.

As such, I'm a little torn - I could see him getting voted out early as a possible 'weak player', but if he squeaks through to the merge, becomes a Scout/Tina/Pappy type that could stick around long-term, especially with the right alliance. I guess I'll have to watch for more of him...

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02-25-05, 01:30 PM (EST)
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70. "RE: Episode Two"
I understand everything going on here and agree with most of it.

Koror:
I agree that it looks like Tom, Ian and Gregg are buddies as they do things together. Also, I think Coby was playing the game from Day 1! However, I am slow to come to any real conclusions because we haven't seen them go to TC. When they start negotiating and positioning for TC we will get a much better idea of their relationships and who falls on which side!

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02-27-05, 02:40 PM (EST)
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77. "RE: Episode Two"
>>Stephenie: “I don’t know what happens
>in a tie” (THIS issue
>again Will it play
>out in a tie or
>will “they” keep avoiding one?

Excellent thread and observations as always!

This comment by Stephenie may be a foreshadowing of the eventual tie between Stephenie and Ibrehem that is part of the Mersaydeez spoiler... She may find out what happens in a tie when her and Ibrehem face of in a fire building tie-breaker to determine who goes on vacation and who makes the jury, as reported by Mersaydeez.



Krautboy

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02-28-05, 08:59 PM (EST)
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81. "RE: Episode Two"
Just wanted to add that I also agree with who has been edited as vulnerable for each tribe.

On an editing note, we may have been able to guess that Ibe would not want to vote of Ashlee based on her picking him in the pickem. But I was surprised by Ashee's vote of Jeff. Sure, she may have not wanted to end up in a tie, but why Jeff? Perhaps it's too early to tell who likes who on a personal level, but the only place we could have gotten a hint about Ashlee's feeings towards Jeff was in the Insider transcripts. It looks like she may have "passed up" a hookup with him, but yet also didn't like him hooking up with Kim...

So right now I'm looking towards the known votes to come up with some sort of "signaling" on how the players value eachother. Ibe's vote seems consistent in that he wants a strong tribe and believed Angie was and Kim is week. I think Ashlee's vote of Jeff was personal. So... Assuming Kim was the real target for last week, who will Kim and Jeff target this week? Will they target a perceived week link, or will personal feelings come into play in who they target? I know there are spoilers about Jeff, but Kim and Jeff still have to target someone. Kim could very well try to redeem herself and vote an injured person off, (Jeff) but I will be looking for Kim and Jeff to still strategize on how they could best place Jeff's vote as a signal to the remaining team.

LookeeLoo

Another Dicey Original 2004

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71. "The Tribes, The Editing "
We were given two completely different stories about the tribes. Koror was edited as being a team (with the exception of Caryn), working together to face both the game challenges (they worked in pairs during the IC) and the survival challenges (recovering the flint). On the other hand, Ulong was shown as individuals. James tells us they are a democracy where everyone is equal. They split up learning Morse Code instead of trying to learn it together. (Koror may have taken this same approach, but we weren't shown it. And it seemed when they were solving the puzzle that more than one person knew what letter was what, although it wouldn't have taken much of a brain to figure out that they would eventually have to spell immunity in Morse Code.)They tried to do the IC as individuals instead of groups. Even the challenge they did win was more of an individual challenge than a group one. (Team members crossed the gauntlet one at a time, without help from their team.)


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02-28-05, 05:37 AM (EST)
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79. "RE: The Tribes, The Editing "
ding ding ding we have a winner
Ep1 Jiffy says to Ulong that they need to find a leader. Ep2 Jiffy says to Ulong that they need get their act together. IMO they will continue to go to TC until they can come together as a tribe. Watch for Jiffy's comments on this.

This is the tale of two tribes. Koror was beaten badly during the RC. The athletic difference between these two tribes could not have been more obvious. The apparantly least athletic person of Ulong, Angie, almost single handedly beat Koror. Through all of this, no negative comments by the tribe members. Ian remained upbeat in the face of Katie's complete failure. Ulong, even in the face of winning is shown in a negative light. Bobby John slapping on the ground in fustration. The brutal fall by James, and the focus of anguish on their faces during the RC.

Fast forward to the IC. Ulong, with the more athletic players quickly swim out to the platform and get a huge head start on Koror. Never was the difference more evident in these two teams then right here. Koror, using team work, quickly catches up and passes up Ulong and wins the IC by a large margin just as they did in Ep1.

Jiffy comments at TC lead me to believe that Ulong will be back to TC next week.

Koror:
Ian is still getting the best edit. He's responsible for finding the lost fire.
Tom, although he was given a slightly negative edit in Ep1, was redeemed this week when the fire was recoverd.
(Does anyone remember who or whom that was on the beach making comments about them not searching for the fire in the right place? I seem to recall that right after the last of the comments Ian found the fire.)
Katie's poor performance in the RC was not all that negatively portrayed by Jiffy or her tribe.
Caryn came off very negative.
The rest of that tribe were fairly unremarkable.

Ulong:
I agree with VS thoughts on Bobby. His angry outburst was in the heat of competition.
Angie has taken on several roles for her tribe. The fierce competitor, tribe narrator, and the one who doesn't quite fit in with all of those beautiful people. Could the person who was picked last for her tribe be the last member of her tribe to survive this game?
Kim stuck out by what she didn't do as opposed to what she did do. Her strategy was to flirt her way through the game and it has worked thus far. Jeff is her boy toy. Her performance in the IC was not lost on the rest of her tribe.
Ibe, here you have this physical speciman and he is barely noticable in competitions. He blends into the back ground of his tribe. He seems to lack personality.
The focus on Jeff and Kim's relationship, and not in a positive way leads me to believe that one of those two will be out this week.


DRONES

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03-02-05, 04:34 PM (EST)
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91. "RE: The Tribes, The Editing "
>This is the tale of two
>tribes. Koror was beaten badly
>during the RC. The athletic
>difference between these two tribes
>could not have been more
>obvious.

Very true Drones, but so far it seems that Koror is good in or on the water. If this pattern continues, and this season is loaded with water challenges per JP, this is a Koror advantage.

>(Does anyone remember who or whom
>that was on the beach
>making comments about them not
>searching for the fire in
>the right place? I seem
>to recall that right after
>the last of the comments
>Ian found the fire.)

That was Caryn and Coby, I believe. These two are suspiciously shown together alot, and seem to have similar personalities (IMO.)

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72. "Episode 2"
I again agree with you VS


KOROR--the tribe will have an edge at merge time...

I agree Ian and Tom are in it for the long haul... Ian could be another Ethan-a winner that everyone likes but not a "player" like Hatch or Chris. Dolphin boy will be an asset in fishing and anything water related. He is definitely someone we are supposed to like and I do!! He will not be to full of himself as Rupert became and that will let him slide by to the finals, imo.

Tom is most likely going to go down ala Sarge/Rupert as being too strong, too well liked...he may win some II to stay in it longer than 8 or 8, but eventually someone (I think Katie) will be the architect of his boot.

Coby--I said it, he's Rob C with Hatch thrown in but I agree he is too "vocal" about his scheming....he will continue to narrate imo and go far but will not be the winner.

Katie..she will def. outlast her nemesis Caryn...again like you said last week, Katie is the mother of this tribe, not Caryn

Caryn...her or Willard will be the first to go, whether she can hold onto Coby will be key

Janu and Jenn--not enough for me to go on...unless Jenn is Darrah (oh, brother) I think she will go out sooner rather than later, Janu..she is surprising me with how well she is doing in challenges, etc. but was last night some foreshadowing and will a Rat be her downfall?

Gregg--same--I have to wait and see-- but if Koror continues to win ICs he may make it to merge and then others (Tom etc) will be higher on everyone's radar and he may slip through to f6-f4 and go on an immunity run then?. The survivor Insider has a lot of clips with Gregg in them/narrating...probably cut from show bc EPMB has some time with Gregg and others (men of Ulong)will not be around as long as he will be

Willard--again, if they go next week, it is likely Willard will go, he's sat out one challenge and is a weak swimmer. I will have to wait to see how Koror acts and what is important to them when they actually are faced with a TC...my feeling is though, they will want tribal unity/wisdom over athleticism

ULONG

Ib--I think they will be around a bit longer but I agree, if they were in it for the long haul they would have been featured more in ep. 2. I see Ib as Brady but he is UTR enough and there are enough others to take the first hits, he will probably last probably til around merge and then people will be scared of his "strength" but he wasn't too strong in the water yday.

BJ--he got a much more positive edit than I thought he would in ep. 2, he is shown as a player (along with James and Steph)
Jeff and Kim are being shown in the worst light so I see them going out very soon.

Angie--I agree with VS she will stay for a bit and win some battles but ultimately lose the war. She is the Rory character of this year...although more positive than Rory...the underdog, who keeps dodging bullets...

Steph and James--as narrators, I see them as having the best chance of Ulongers to continue post merge

The people I see in most immediate danger: Jeff and Kim on Ulong and Caryn and Willard on Koror



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02-25-05, 08:36 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: Episode 2"
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 08:38 PM (EST)

Excellent work as always, I only have a few things to add.

There has been much discussion of decisions and consequences, but there may be the third aspect, reconciliation. Caryn couldn’t let go of the decision on which beach to select, but both Katie and Coby both commented that the decision was made and now they must make the best of it. Stephanie also confessed that getting rid of Jo was the right decision. It may not be the consequences of decisions that are important but the acceptance of decisions already made.

After the first episode I thought Angie’s story would revolve around her being an outcast. She would manage to hang on for a while, almost being booted of each week, and then, in a heartbreaking episode, would finally become accepted, only to be booted off. But it is only episode two and she may have already finished her story. While she probably won’t go next week, I am unsure she makes it as far as many think. As odd as this may seem, we need to see her more on the chopping block if she is going to stick around.

Almost as telling is the story that isn’t being told. Prior to the season I thought if Janu wasn’t an early boot she could have an interesting story line. We have been given some teasers, her rock climb up the coconut tree, and her aversion to rats. But if her story doesn’t begin to flesh out soon, I have little hope for her.

Stephanie has a very interesting edit. She is coming across as a strong leader, balanced, a decision maker, and strategic player. But her story arc may be moving too fast. This, combined with her early alliance with Ulong members, leads me to believe she makes the merge, but becomes an obvious target.

Ian has been given a rock star edit and it may be too good to be true, he is around for a very long time. Tom has also received a good edit, but he appears to more of a target.

I agree with you VS, Bobby Jon is getting a much better edit than I anticipated.

ETA: It is Coby not Cory

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02-26-05, 04:16 AM (EST)
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74. "Ian vs Tom..."
Two strong, likable, everday winners. They appear to have some sort of alliance going on, and so far, seem to be doing things together. There's only room for one eventually, on this island, however, and who is it going to be?

"I can do anything you can do better. Anything you can do I can do too..."

Tom, it could be said, won the IC for Koror this week. I can't be the only person, however, who sat there and looked at the challenge, and went "That's nothing compared to what Koror just accomplished in getting their flint back." Really, though, it was Ian who was highlighted as being the hero in returning the flint. Tom - with Ian's help - won immunity for the tribe. It was Ian who got fire, however.

While it was edited to show that the tribe didn't necessarily agree with the opinion, MB showed Caryn pointing at Tom for the blame of moving to the different camp, and the problems that came with it - including the loss of fire. Tom lost the fire. Ian got it back.

I think these two are going to continue to work together. I think they generally even like each other. However, I think MB might eventually give us an edit to show that only one of them can prevail. Mersaydeez's spoiler has put Katie in the Final 2. If this is true, I don't think I'm jumping out on a limb to suggest that she could have either Tom or Ian sitting next to each other, and that these three could make up the Final Three, especially if that spoiler holds true. The question is, which one will prevail?

Whatever happens with the shark next week will be important. Who will be edited as the hero this time? Ian has already provided fire for his tribe(something Tom dismissed as a 'loser' job), will he also be shown to provide food? The speculation is saying that Tom does it, and no doubt he will be a key part in it, but who will be edited to win out in this situation?

I'm torn, myself, between the two. Truly, the classic hero must overcome great odds and personal mistakes/limitations. I said pre-season that I thought we'd see more 'classic' characters being developped this season. So far, Tom has perhaps made one mistake, while Ian is being carried on everyone's shoulders. The game is only beginning, however, and EPMB is still just forming our initial impressions of people.

He wants us to like Ian. He's planted a seed of doubt around Tom, and then perhaps redeemed him slightly, but still didn't place him above Ian. Classic storytelling tells us that our hero should come up against opposition next. Not right away, perhaps, we're still in the first pages of this story, but within the next few episodes we should start to see the hints of what's to come.

Tom, on the other hand, was a hero from the first moment he walked onto the beach. A NY firefighter. The Knights of our current culture. As I said in my other thread, however, this season is all about people not playing the role they're expected to. Tom is already a hero, but can he hold onto his title? If Tom is a knight, than Ian is the peasant boy with a heart of gold and good intentions who will one day surprise himself by surpassing his mentor.

If Ian continues to coast, then I think he's simply being given the Rupert 'nice guy finishes last' edit, and EPMB will find a way to slip him a million after the game is over. On the other hand, if Tom continues to be edited as being no better than Ian, I think he will eventually pass the 'torch'.(If both of these happen, well, then, Katie wins. I'm by no means ruling out that possibility.)

On the other hand, if after the initial superstar edit, Ian is shown to hit a roadblock but continue to keep pushing forward, I see him eventually overcoming whatever 'odds' are thrown in his way, and becoming the real hero of the season. This will be a slow moving story arc, that will probably involve first establishing his greatness, then perhaps hiding him for a bit(although not letting the audience forget about him) as the seeds of trouble are planted. After his obstacles are established(be they be personal, whether physically or mentally, or coming from outside. Likely there will be both), we will see him battle them. The classic ending to this story would be to see him pervail(although he could perhaps sacrifice himself, in which case, again, I see Katie as coming out the winner).

Another thing to watch for will be how nature is edited to responding to his difficulties. Nature will often reflect the mood of the hero. Since this is reality, and even EPMB can't order thunderstorms on request, this won't be cut and dry, but it's usually pretty easy to tell when he's focusing on something.

I'm going to end this here for now because it's late, and I have a feeling I'm going to start contradicting myself or talking in circles if I keep on like this. I'll post this now, but I may come back tomorrow and change my mind on a few things. I also should mention that I have a crush on Ian biasing my opinions right now.

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02-26-05, 07:37 AM (EST)
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75. "RE: Ian vs Tom..."
I keep remembering that during the first challenge they did on the island, Jeff made a point of telling us that Tom was the first one over the first obstacle. Tom was leading in the first challenge they did and it was pointed out to us. Maybe it means nothing. But it sticks in my head.
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02-26-05, 10:27 AM (EST)
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76. "RE: Episode 2"
You have made some great observations, emy! Caryn, imo, received extremely negative editing. First with backing Tom into a corner on the first night spent at the new beach. She seemed to attack him, to me. She drilled on and on about how making the decision to come to the new, unknown beach was a serious mistake, and that their should have been a vote....hmmmm, looks like she is questioning having a leader of the tribe to direct the group, and instead wanting the tribe to become a democracy, as James has stated that their tribe is.(Yet we see the no leader, no direction, democracy at Ulong is failing miserably). I found myself thinking how nasty she was, and how unproductive to the group she was in attacking Tom and the decision, I was in complete agreement with Katie, mistake or no, the decision had been made, and now the best thing to do would be to adapt to it and move on....Caryn is resisting adapting to the new camp, she's fixated on the old one, which is an extremely unproductive course.

Then, in the previews, we are shown a glimpse of the hyped cat-fight. Once again it seems as if Caryn is doing the attacking. No doubt about it, she is trying to control this group in some regard and failing. The editing is definately making her out to be a villain, and a bossy, vindictive, and controlling one at that. She could have a Jerri edit, but to me, the fact that we are shown her accusatory and bossy nature spells first boot to me. As emydi pointed out, in referring to how Koror will vote at TC, they will want tribal unity/wisdom over athletism. Just as they preferred wisdom and unity in choosing their tribe over youth and athletism.

Over at Ulong, imo, the MOST negative editing went to Kimber. Did you see her body language when Steph told her they were considering her on the chopping block....what a BIOTCH! If looks could kill, Steph would have dropped right then and there. Even if she attempted to go and pull the box in the IC, we were not shown it at all, we were shown that she did nothing to help in that challenge. She is a threat to the Ulong tribe, and one that I think will be targeted far sooner than later. Steph definately has her dander up regarding Kim. Should be an interesting boot!

All in all, excellent points made by all! Great thread, VS!

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78. "Irony"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-05 AT 04:31 AM (EST)

Good analysis by all!

Just wanted to mention a comment edited into one of his 5 confessionals last week.

"If we have someone slowing us down, I hope that doesn't bring down our team."

While he was referring to Ashlee at the time, his comment was probaly also included for the ironic situation he will find himself in next week. When he becomes injured and brings down the team during the IC because he "quits", he will be the one slowing them down and Ulong goes on to lose...


Krautboy

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80. "RE: Episode 2"
but to me, the fact that we are shown her accusatory and bossy nature spells first boot to me. As emydi pointed out, in referring to how Koror will vote at TC, they will want tribal unity/wisdom over athletism.

I think we are being shown this because there is nothing else of particular interest to show on Koror right now (except maybe the Jenn/Gregg romance, which I think has already started, but they are hiding it until after Kim and Jeff are both gone). MB loves to show fights at camp. But it smells of misdirection to me.

Koror is focused on WINNING. We've been told there are a lot of water challenges, and Willard was already shown to be a poor swimmer at the last IC. For someone who Jeff Probst thinks is an interesting character, we're not getting much out of Willard so far. I think he is a no-brainer as Koror's first boot.


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03-01-05, 07:30 AM (EST)
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82. "RE: Episode 2"
KB, very nice foreshadowing with that quote!

BR, I agree that in absence of boot issues looming, Koror would not be seen normally so we need to be shown something. However, I have usually found with the editing that if a tribe is starting to be shown from a positive towards a negative then something negative may occur shortly.

I think there may have been more negativity that could have been highlighted from Koror; they can't be that happy but there really is no point if they don't have to eliminate someone since I would suspect we are to see how cohesive and wise they are. Since we are now planning to see a crack in their tribe this episode, the "arc" if you will, of the happy times of Koror may now have a dark cloud BUT it could very well be for the following episode.

emydi, I have been a firm believer in the eyemails along with the other editing clues I love to interpret.

We saw more of a couple of people last episode moreso at Ulong. Bobby, Jeff and Kim. The other people really are just progressing along with their same pattern so far.

Bobby's editing went up positively as opposed to a negative. Both Kim and Jeff took editing turns as far as visibility and negative. So it would seem fair things don't bode well for them. Interesting that "Kim" was mentioned as a threat by James to Jeff, however, what we didn't see is anyone deeming JEFF as a threat (deliberate misdirection?)

Technically Jeff is a bigger threat yet Kim is "dead weight" The Ulongs again are stuck with Choices and their Consequences

If they choose to get rid of Jeff, they will be getting rid of strength they need now perhaps but won't want later. If they get rid of Kim now they get rid of dead weight they don't need now but wouldn't mind later for individual game.

What choice do they make and how does it affect them?

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03-01-05, 11:59 AM (EST)
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83. "RE: Episode 2"
Since we are now planning to see a crack in their tribe this episode, the "arc" if you will, of the happy times of Koror may now have a dark cloud

I would agree it could signal danger not too far ahead, but not necessarily for one of these two.


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03-01-05, 01:06 PM (EST)
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84. "Eyemail: Episode 2"
LAST EDITED ON 03-01-05 AT 01:19 PM (EST)

Ok, this week I think my theory works!!!

Last week, not so much because no one was featured, but it could be akin to Snewser's post on Sucks quoted in KB'spost in the shark thread about sometimes EPMB edits, etc. for a surprise boot(ashlee last week) and sometimes he smacks us in the face with it (jeff this week!!)



I am brilliant--KT said so last week...

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03-01-05, 03:31 PM (EST)
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85. "RE: Eyemail: Episode 2"
"Ok, this week I think my theory works!!!
Last week, not so much because no one was featured"

But didn't one pic show Ashlee falling over the wall...

I thought it worked last week too...


Close but no car...

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86. "RE: Eyemail: Episode 2"
It did in the sense that Ashlee was there, but no one was "featured" as emydi says -- Ashlee's face wasn't even visible. There were three other Ulongs in the same shot, including Jeff and Kim.


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87. "Adding to the J or K boot talk - or at this point, coals to Newcastle;"
I thought the TC interviews stood out as MBs frying pan upside the head edit indication that J&K were blissfully, naively out of sync with the tribe. When a tribe member(s) is/are shown to be out of sync with his tribe, and is unaware of this fact, they are soon to be (the next?) a puntee. I think this is a generally useful indicator.

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03-01-05, 10:39 PM (EST)
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88. "RE: Episode 2"
I'm very curioius to see the extent of this injury. Maybe it's not as bad as we think and Jeff could have just sucked it up for the tribe, but chooses to sacrifice himself to save Kim, the obvious boot? Or, maybe this "injury" is played up in the minds of Jeff's tribe mates and used as fuel to get rid of him? Ulong sees this moment of weakness and chooses to get rid of him?

IMO we are not seeing something here in regards to this injury. If this was as serious of an injury, like Mike's of Outback fame was, then EPMB would have kept it hidden for maximum shock value effect.

This would fit in with the choices and consequences theme that has been observed by VS. Ulong chooses to get rid of Jeff for his supposed injury, but in reality they are doing it because he is a threat as was stated by James.

BTW, I'm still waiting for war theme promised by EPMB in the previews for this edition of survivor.
DRONES

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03-02-05, 10:43 AM (EST)
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90. "RE: Episode 2"
I believe Jeff said: "I can barely weight bear on it..." so it sounds like a pretty serious leg/ankle injury.


Braveheart

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03-02-05, 02:11 AM (EST)
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89. "Pre - Episode 3"
On an editing standpoint, and as mentioned in other thresds we have noted that we have not received a whole lot of RC versus IC pics to decipher what exactly what are the RC versus IC pics.

Vols in another thread (or perhaps it was this one) mentioned the lack of RC/IC pics was quite frustrating in trying to determine a boot, alliances, etc..

So I'm thinking, since we have been privy to the challenge storyboard, we may just be seeing a different edit. Ex.: we get to guess the challenges based on the storyboard or the "whatever".

Are we being shown limited RC/IC pics because we have been exposed to the storyboard?

Does that mean the storyboard pics are in contract to the pics? Perhaps. Ex. the supposed Episode 3 "switch"

Is this a different editing slant? Ex.: we get the story board, which can be shuffled amongst episodes and we don't get as much pic info on RC/IC?

LookeeLoo

Another Dicey Original 2004

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03-04-05, 11:26 AM (EST)
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92. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-05 AT 02:02 PM (EST)

My post may end up quite like Ulong; all over the place with no clear direction Again, most of you know and others don't that I don't analyze the show in conjunction with spoiler material. My "analysis" (of the dime store variety) is based on exactly what the thread is titled, i.e. the players/characters and the editing of same. My opinions therefore may not make much sense to those who follow spoilers (or it just might not make any sense)

I have been wallowing in the confusion regarding the editing of this show. Those who remain invisible, those who are portrayed over the top negative or positive and so forth has made this season thus far very interesting and very frustrating. There are some constants in Survivor editing and this season is attempting to break those rules.

Well, again, we are privy mainly to Ulong and their dynamics which naturally makes sense in light of the fact they keep going to Tribal Council.

Again, however, it is important to note that even in light of losing a challenge, we see nothing from Koror discussing what went wrong. Instead, we quickly move onto their new adventures (last week retrieving the flint and this week snakes and sharks - the symbolism had me in hog heaven )

War?

Is this a theme for the show or just a general sense of what is happening with Ulong? They are at war with Koror and being demolished. They are at war with themselves and demolishing themselves

Kim: “It’s like everybody died”

Choices/Consequences

The prevalent theme which Jeff Probst keeps showing us by stating such. The reward challenge, how they chose to get the life ring; the emphasis that this is a social game and how you take the ring away could affect your long term standings.

Ulong the epitome of wrong choices are not even able to make a choice. They can’t decide who to vote off, and obviously can’t decide next week who will represent them. James had indicated they are a democracy, however, even in a democracy SOMEONE needs to be a leader

James: “We don’t know what we are gonna do until we do it”

Last season we had continuous shots of the volcanos. I had noted based on what the volcano did set up the standard for the show. This season seems to showcase WRECKAGE and following same we saw, yes, Ulong.

The interesting parallel between these tribes is the way they compete. Ulong gets the rewards and Koror gets the immunities. The irony is that the reward challenges are more individual and the immunity challenges are more team oriented. Individually, Ulong is tough, together, Koror seems unstoppable. But how will this play out for Koror once the game IS individual?

The Players, Symbolism and Editing Observations

ULONG

James, Steph remain consistent. Both have stayed the course in terms of visibility and game talk. Neither of them have been slanted as of yet in a negative light.

Interesting quote by Jeff at the IC regarding Steph “Stephenie, the only woman left”

Considering that I have committed myself to Stephenie’s pre tribe alliance discussion with Tom, it would seem fitting still that she will be reunited with them

James about himself “I’m listening to everything; I’ve got ears like a bat” (There have been quite a lot of animal references and imagery this season)

Bobby Jon - His editing is progressing even more still. His positive turn started last week and increased immensely this week. He has completely defied the pre show expectation that a lot of people had. My one concern with him is the tribe he is on. I recall Elisabeth, who despite her faring after merger, the bottom line was she was still on the other tribe to start. I fear with his editing that we are to be very sympathetic towards his plight; we see what he is dealing with and feel bad for him. That characterization typically does not end up well

Kim’s quote regarding Bobby: “It’s no use if he keeps doing this for 2 weeks then crashes and burns” (Foreshadowing? I always raise my eyebrows whenever there is talk with “numbers”)

However, I again go back to Coby’s mention: “Good choice” about Bobby and now Bobby mentioning Tom. Will Bobby have the opportunity to “see” Koror?

Angie: Consider the fact, she is probably one of the few contestants whose “underdog” status has changed. Her rise from that situation appears to be done. THAT story is over. Interestingly enough, she can now be construed as potentially threatening and not necessarily well regarded by everyone any longer. Her edit has certainly peaked as an underdog. I still question whether she and Coby “meet up again” After yesterday’s RC, she has not made “friends” with Koror though. Jeff’s emphatic speech about this reward showcasing what may happen to you is very telling in light of Angie’s performance at the challenge. What Angie has done to redeem herself in the eyes of her tribe may have garnered her some enemies in the long run.

Bobby Jon and Angie - Again we are shown the two of them appreciating one another, working together and I found their “vote” talk interesting. Although Angie was not going to vote out Kim, the two of them were not at odds with each other and I enjoyed the brief moment of their observing Kim and Jeff together. Both are very likable though I do not get a sense of as MUCH longevity with them as I do with Steph and James. I feel as if with how horrific Ulong is being portrayed, Bobby is earning our sympathy but that doesn’t then mean he could last. With Angie, it is almost as if they are setting her up to be the enemy of Koror. In my mind, neither of these portrayals signal a happy ending.

Kim: Kim’s edit has spiraled out of control. The over the top showing of her being lazy and not very smart is either deliberate misdirection or it is what it is. She was even unable to discuss being on the “cutting block” correctly.

Her concern over what people thought about herself and Jeff led right to her cuddling with him again. My only concern with her edit is the tribe that is surrounding her. Bad choices again and again. Does Kim keep managing to dodge the bullet that is intended for her?

There was a lot of irony in her statement at TC that Ulong’s strategy is voting out the weakest yet the audience is seeing the exact opposite happening in terms of Kim herself.

Ibe - It appears to me that Ibe was required to step up in the visibility portion and that is the only reason we saw more of him. His rise in visibility did not indicate to me that his story is progressing but rather, with each Ulong leaving, he is almost “forced” into being a participant in visibility. Again, his remarks and actions are not cohesive with the rest of his tribe. He voted this time for someone who was going but this vote essentially was not one of decision really.

His commentary about the challenge was interesting when Bobby claimed Tom to be the reason Koror won. Ibe, however, credits Tom AND HIS TEAM doing it together and if they had Jeff (AN INDIVIDUAL) they would have won. Again, an emphasis on Koror and team work and Ulong on individuality.

Bobby Jon about Tom: “He is a man among men; he singlehandedly won the challenge for them”

(Tom is getting the hero edit even from the other tribe. Reminds me somewhat of Rupert in terms of the high regard but not in terms of the character portrayal itself)

With the exception of the whole tribe disintegrating at this point through their choices and their consequences, it would appear that Steph and James, being consistent and being active participants in the game itself are here for as long as they can be.

Bobby Jon’s upward swing again is a mixed message as we have seen both rise in “good arcs” lead to an impending boot (two weeks?) or sustaining. He is giving me a hard way to go. Angie’s underdog status has leveled out and now she is being showcased as a competitor. How this will resolve with Koror will be interesting if there is any turn of events where she is at their mercy.

KOROR

Again, when a tribe does not visit TC, it is hard to determine exactly how much issue there is in a tribe. We were given a teaser of same which obviously setting up Caryn and Katie. Before that, again I reiterate that after the RC, we saw little to no discussion of how they fared, who may have hurt them and so forth. It was just another adventure in the day in the life of Koror.

There has been no “real talk” about alliances, strategy and so forth with the exception of a blurb of being a target if too confrontational

Tom and Ian - Again both showcased extremely positive. They are our Elisabeth and Rodger but on the prevailing tribe this time. Tom shown to be teacher and motivator during the quest for snakes and sharks and the immunity challenge. Ian positive and upbeat even while having to do something he didn’t want to do.

At the IC, Tom kept them going but at the very end Ian threw himself to tag out Ulong. At this point in time, either of these two appear to be destined for the final two or else the winner and this season is so unappetizing that they are capitalizing on Tom and Ian to save it.

Ian strongly resembles Ethan’s characterization quite a lot.

Tom: “I hooked up with two other knuckle heads who like the excitement of things like this” (Ian, Tom and Gregg a mighty threesome )

Caryn - Caryn shows her annoyance. In the light of day, probably a reasonable situation. Ironic that other than a glimpse of Jen and Willard, no fall out from this fight. Katie dismisses her antics and Caryn worries over her status. There will obviously be something coming down the pike for these two

With regard to Caryn’s status - again sometimes something shown means something. Caryn was featured in the IC visually when she quit whereas Willard and Katie left with no real visual that I can recall. Yes, Caryn was the first one out but as a whole, Caryn’s “negative” characterizations are shown more prominently than others. Perhaps she is one of Koror’s rats?

Willard - I have expected more out of Willard. The commentary about it pre show was one of a very social and dynamic older man yet we have not been shown this whatsoever even in terms of confessionals. He will either have a key moment that will then be expanded on or he will be a typical first boot. At this juncture with the lack of dynamics it is a hard call. I go back to Koror’s creed of wisdom and team work and I do wonder if Willard is passed over for a first boot because of this though. Came to Coby’s aid at the IC is really anything of note

Janu - Dipped somewhat in visibility and only remembered for being overcome by Angie but instantly shown protected by her tribe I’m perpelexed somewhat by her editing portrayal as I highly doubt she has nothing to say. There was no commentary whatsoever by her or the tribe over her brawl with Angie that we were shown. Always seems to be fairly physically close to Coby who is situated around Caryn and Willard or so it appears

Katie - It was no secret that Katie would be somewhat annoying to someone at least. Our pre show analysis stated such. In terms again, however, of what we are being shown, Katie comes out on top. The battle of Caryn and Katie only reflected Caryn’s vulnerability, Katie was nonplussed other than her annoyance at Caryn’s annoyance. We also were not shown anything from the other members about this issue outside of Coby’s off hand remarks about people grating on each other’s nerves. No specifics mentioned. Couple that with Katie getting no negative treatment from her poor showing at last week’s RC makes me tend to believe that Katie would outlast Caryn

Coby - All sneaky talk from Day one gone.........for now. I still expect him to be key in a Tribal Council. Coby is not necessarily showcased but he is highly visible. Talks about the shelter, seen doing his portion. Sympathetic to Janu; discusses the tribe’s dynamics. Shown trying very hard to keep up with the powerhouses on his tribe at IC but failing. Will he get close to the brass ring but fall short?

Jenn: In terms of vocal visibility there is still nothing but her presence escalated. She and Stephenie’s cat fight again makes me question what may come down the road for the two of them together in a battle of which woman goes. Seen lurking near the dynamics but not involved in them. (Watching Caryn and Katie, chopping the snake while the other’s actively get the shark)

Jenn at this point seems to have some longevity but if there is no increase after Koror goes to their first TC, I can’t foresee her getting at the end. I did note when she was in the water, they flashed to Gregg looking concerned. If we have another Darrah, Jenn would be such, however I don’t consider Jenn as athletic as Darrah was. She is insulated in a good tribe right now though


Gregg - Fairly consistent, a nice addition with Tom and Ian though he “joins” in after Tom/Ian already established (getting the snakes he told us he joined in and so forth) There is no question he is desired for his strength and decent attitude. He is a serious threat to Koror as individuals but they are so team oriented this is not an issue, yet. It will and should be however. We saw more of him since he was actively involved in every part of Koror but we haven’t gotten to “know him” very well. His “narration” is more general whereas Tom and Ian talk more personally. However, one cannot overlook his strength which is always an assistance. If all the strong of Ulong go, his competition for II dwindles despite the fact that Tom and Ian have shown their strength

With the editing thus far, Willard has no story or strategy. Caryn’s being showcased in a more negative light and will come head to head with Katie at some point. Coby’s visibility is there but vocally went down some from the first episode which is not unusual right now. Janu and Jenn are there but we haven’t gotten to know them very well but they are seen.

Willard is more likely than not their first boot based on there being nothing from him. Katie may, in fact, attempt to get rid of Caryn but I sense that this will happen to further along the dynamics there for a “who will it be” type Tribal Council at some point.

Gregg, Tom, Ian and Coby should endure for quite some time. Tom and Ian are getting huge portrayals for them to not to be there for some time. Katie does narrating for Koror and not just about herself. She discusses others as well. I still sense issue coming from her at some point. Jenn and Janu need to find some sense of fleshing out soon or I suspect they will not be there very long.

Animal Imagery

Ian feeling bad about having to kill the snake. Symbolism at its best? Does he have the killer instinct to get rid of a snake further down the road or will it cost him?

(Interestingly enough there was a snake shown moments before Ulong’s visit to Tribal Council)

Tom again: “We are going to back off the snakes and redouble our efforts on the sharks." We are going to get a shark” (Who on this island is the shark?) Recall the sharks ate the snakes. I also could have sworn we heard the theme from Jaws during Tom’s attempts

The interesting contrast also of what Ulong and what Koror went after:

Bobby Jon catches a tiny fish “It’s not much but I like it”
All the while, Koror is attempting to catch a shark (but they don’t get it)

Koror has inundated us with animal imagery. This is not necessarily an indicator of anything concrete but enough to question

Rats - Last time there were rats, this week snakes and sharks. Is the makeup of the tribes consistent with this? Who are rats, snakes or sharks. Tom and Ian could not get the shark, the managed to kill the snakes and the rats remained.

The Challenges in terms of symbolism

Jeff: “Good ole fashioned cat fight” (about Jen and Stephenie-will these two jockey for the position with the majority alliance?)

Jeff: “Janu didn’t like that” (regarding Angie bearing down on her) Janu was then protectively hugged by Coby
Katie: “Get her!” (About Angie)

Bobby at the IC practically carrying the weight of Ulong on his shoulders

Ibe: Strong man yet not really carrying the brunt of the weight
Steph: The only woman prevailing
James: leaving the challenge was told by BJ to give him his weight. Is Bobby carrying everyone’s burdens and will he crash/burn because of it?

Next Week

Coby: “What if the person who goes, doesn’t come back? (At that moment, the camera panned on Gregg, Tom and Ian)

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03-04-05, 12:11 PM (EST)
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93. "I *heart* VS!!!"
LAST EDITED ON 03-04-05 AT 12:45 PM (EST)

GAH.. I hit return too soon but luckily I got this back hitting the BACK button!!

Here's my post:

I always look forward to reading your weekly post VS!!! This was the best one yet (how do you keep topping yourself!!!)You should be hired by EPMB as his chief editor!! But then you'd be too good at that and we'd never figure it out!!!

I agree with everything you said but of course I want to add my own twist on it and maybe add a bit of spoiler here or there!!

You are right on about Angie She is no longer the underdog and she is becoming the enemy of Koror. You wonder if she will be at the mercy of Koror, well the double RC Ep. 5, she looks like she will be as it is surmised that Koror wins the RC and then is the voting tribe at Ulong's TC....Angie must continue to grate on Koror's last nerve because that is the only reason I see her going in Ep. 5 by Koror's hand, as opposed to BJ (and Ibe to a lesser extent) who is very strong..

I see Tom getting a Lea/Rupert edit. For me, he has become the Koror's narrator replacing Coby since Ep. 1. Since Koror has not had the onus of ousting anyone since Ep. 1 when Coby orchestrated Jonathan's non-pick, EPMB is free to focus on his heroes and Tom is the most eloquent and is the LEADER. Whenever Koror has to go to TC though, or post merge, I see Coby steppping in and becoming the narrator then, possibly because Tom is no longer around because he is seen as too strong (like Lea/Rupert)

Tom's discussion about adventure and knuckleheads was the best confessional to date imo... so Tom Ian and Gregg are Moe Larry and Curly....yuk yuk yuk

As for Ian, I too commented to my friends last nite that Ian is getting an Ethan edit. But I think Ian is a stronger player than Ethan and may have the ability to get the shark, snake, rat, whatever.. FWIW, I think Katie is going to be the snake, rat, whatever etc. I know she got the more positive edit than Caryn in. Ep. 3 and I see her lasting longer than Caryn too, but she also is getting the Jenna L./Clay annoying edit (I can't remember back that far, but did Kelli get such an edit in S1??) and I see her as a potential F2 partner for a more positive player (Ian/Tom??)

I agree Willard is just a non entity and will likely be the first boot. Janu has disappeared...

Jenn and Gregg are now coming to light a bit and they are seen yesterday with the POWER 3 of Koror IANTOMKATIE...so there you go that's the 5 votes for the first boot...I see Willard Caryn (and to a lesser extent) Janu as the only first boot candidates for Koror. Coby is not in trouble but I still see him as getting the Rob C. edit.

As for Ulong, you are right, they are one messed up tribe...last nite, the "theme" of Jiffy's questions was frustration (not romance of Kim/Jeff this week) culminating in Kim's most prophetic quote (it was about TC but...)
"I'm so sick of being here

I think a rose is a rose is a rose and Kim is a toast come Ep. 4.

Ibe also is coming to light, is this the beginning of his story line that will end shortly??? It's sort of like Angie's story is ending and Ibe's is now starting to replace it...I don't see either staying too long with Angie going before Ibe.

Steph and James are the constants, although they did not vote the same last nite. BJ has become a sort of de facto leader by default of Ulong. For me, he is the most surprising Survivor ever.. I never thought he would act like this.. I saw him more of a Jeff/Kim player... I was wrong... But, like you said, usually that type of story line doesn't end up too well.. but I think for now he is safe on Ulong bc he is the provider and strongest player.


Some final notes, quotes and misc.

I too noted that they showed Tom Ian and Gregg when Coby said "what if the person doesn't come back" I do not think they will risk losing one of them, so I see Mama Katie being Koror's choice.

As for Ulong, they can't even pick a leader (as you said even a democracy has a leader) for next week.. maybe they too are afraid to pick Bj Ibe or Steph for fear of losing them. Therefore, James or Angie is my pick for Ulong. Possibly Angie goes and alienates Koror further....

Oh and I didn't know sexuality had a long e song in it...I love James' confessionals!!!



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03-04-05, 12:56 PM (EST)
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94. "Excellent post"
I look forward to Friday mornings just so I can read this thread.
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03-04-05, 06:03 PM (EST)
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95. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
Veruca: By reading these posts I get more insight into how the game is being played than from any other source. Your understanding of the players and the unique way you express this understanding makes me look forward to this ongoing post each and every week. You really make Friday special for me. Thanks for your time and your effort. I am sure many others share my thoughts.
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03-04-05, 11:36 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
VC, and Emydi, very interesting. Long as hell, and verbose. But very well done, stylish, enlightening and entertaining. Had me on the edge of my seat. I got to the end wanting more, can't wait till the next installment (do not read sarcasm into this).

What seems to be a sub-theme (to me) is the contrast between appearance and substance. Not necessarily any foreshadowing or longevity clues, but the contrasts are interesting, Jeff (strong but a quitter) and Angie (pudgy/weird but a fighter winner), or Ian (stick boy/killer, competitor), or Tom (older guy, out lasts younger), Ibe (big strong guy, but ultimately beaten by stick boy), Stephanie (woman who outlasts men).

Is MB out to teach the world a lesson in life? Hope not.


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03-05-05, 05:32 PM (EST)
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97. "RE: Episode Four Boots?"

emydi, as always, I do always look forward to your take on things! Who is your Chad this season One can't help falling in editing love with Tom, yes?

mac and redbeard, thank you so much for your nice words I would love to see more of your thoughts in here as we sure can use it in this "muck of editing"

kingfish, your edgy commentary is always welcomed even with the hint of sarcasm lolol You know this thread would not be 'THIS THREAD' without it being longwinded

As I mentioned before, Ulong's individuality and Koror's togetherness is very key in how they are handling this show. We noticed that there is a pattern to how they do competitions and there thought process on same.

In the promos of the challenge, it seems that Ulong MAY finally see the II at their camp. Couple that with the slow buildup that has been shown at Koror with the tension, they may go to TC this week. Really, why even bother showing tension on Koror? We heard Coby mention it and we saw Caryn and Katie expressing it. Since there has been an editing "turn" at their camp for really no reason to show it, it may be suggestive that they go to Tribal Council. We saw a minor hint of it with Caryn and her complaints of the camp and Tom selecting it; last week it was Caryn and Katie. In light of all their recent victories, their shared adventures and so forth, I do feel this "grating on nerves" is being delivered to set something up.

Again, I do not follow spoilers; this is merely based on what I see and how it compares to past shows, etc.

At this time, it would appear Koror may finally see Jeff Probst other than a challenge. If this happens, we have a situation of Caryn and Katie at odds. It does appear from watching and listening, Caryn is situated with Coby and Janu and Willard perhaps whereas Katie, Ian, Tom, Gregg with probably Jenn are more aligned. Usually we receive various features of more than one person being the target and then somewhat surprised at the outcome especially if MB is hiding that victim and making it more about others. Or it is clearly about two people and they make it as suspenseful as possible.

In light of these editing tricks it suggests that for a duration of the show Caryn and Katie may be featured as the potential victims, however, Willard may in fact be the one booted for the obvious reasons and then, the Caryn and Katie situation will become larger still since there won't be a "better" boot.

Over at Ulong, Kim's edit has bothered me and I won't repeat why in fairness to Kingfish I do have concern (again) about Bobby's editing turn and Angie's though as I already stated Angie leaving would seem more fitting at the hands of Koror.

At this moment, Willard seems highly likely to leave along with the above reasons and the fact that despite what we gleaned from his pre show bio/interviews etc. the editing is not showing this seemingly intelligent, humorous man who is the oldest person there. Why nothing about his struggle being there being the eldest or his observation about his tribe? Sometimes this occurs when there is so much going on more dynamic (flint lost, shark/snakes, Ulong) and the editors know his stay will be short.

If this is the case, it is a shame but predictable.

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03-05-05, 05:59 PM (EST)
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98. "RE: Episode Four Boots?"
VS I couldn't help but be impressed by BJ's attempt to carry Ulong on his back. He has been edited as the crazy man kinda like Matt, but he seems to have taken Jeffs role as the main male strength in Ulong. Increased face time sometimes is not a good thing but in this case I feel he is jumping front and center into the spot of the male leader in Ulong.In order for them to survive Ulong has to start acting as a team rather than a group of individuals. In their present state I see many other individuals ahead of BJ on the Ulong boot list. Because of his strength and the fact that he is on the numerically weaker team I do not forsee him making it to the final 4 but I think it is possible for him to be the last male standing on Ulong.RedBeard
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03-06-05, 12:05 PM (EST)
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100. "RE: Episode Four Boots?"
I re-read my post, and I regret not being clearer. Sarcasm was meant for the critical part of my reply but the praise although scarcastically written, was not ment to be sarcastic, it was real, I actually did get to the end wanting more. Same with EMYDI's reply. Besides being a skilful writer you have a sense of humor and are introspective, and my reliance on that tempts me to joke around a little. I'm not a very good editor of my own stuff.

PLease do not shorten your observations in any way that is not of your own choice. And Don't listen to any dolt who hints that you should.

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03-07-05, 10:50 AM (EST)
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106. "RE: Episode Four Boots?"
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-05 AT 10:50 AM (EST)

Why nothing about (Willard's) struggle being there being the eldest or his observation about his tribe? Sometimes this occurs when there is so much going on more dynamic (flint lost, shark/snakes, Ulong) and the editors know his stay will be short.

I don't believe Willard is leaving this week. His comment about hitting Wanda over the head with the oar set up a sarcastic, biting character (Wanda even said in one interview that Willard's "role" was to be the curmudgeon). Yet we've heard not a peep from him since then. There isn't that much going on at Koror that they couldn't have developed Willard more since Episode 1.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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03-06-05, 06:56 AM (EST)
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99. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
VS, I am always so keen to post in this thread but I rarely have anything insightful to post (or if I do, you have already put it more succinctly than I ever could). The person I am most interested in at the moment is Jenn, largely because we have seen so little of her.

I was expecting that Jenn would follow a very similar path to all other UTR players - i.e. Nick, Zoe, Leann , Amber (in S2), Erin, Vecepia (if she's lucky) - I thought she would be a non-entity who would last a moderate distance.

But so far she is a complete stranger. In all other seasons we have been introduced to all the characters by the third ep. But this time we are still waiting to be introduced to Jenn. Even Nick had been introduced by now.

VS, you say that she is hovering at the side of the action and I agree with you. But still, we don't even know what her voice sounds like. Evidently MB wants us to know she is involved with her tribe, but hasn't been able to do much yet (this is porbably because voting strategy is not yet part of Koror's story).

I think that we will begin to hear more from Jenn once the strategy starts on Koror. Up to that point we will not hear much from her at all, but I am sure she will become much more prolific after that point.

Jenn, IMHO, is NOT a non-entity and typical UTR playr. If she was we would have been introduced to her by now. I think she is not being shown because she is not important as of yet - but once she does become important, we will suddenly discover who she is.

Therefore I don't think that she is in danger if we don't hear from her for another few episodes, as she may just not need to be introduced yet. But once she is, I have a feeling she will be a part of something big in this game.

meh - i could just be wrong.

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-05, 03:59 PM (EST)
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101. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
LAST EDITED ON 03-06-05 AT 05:59 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-06-05 AT 05:47 PM (EST)

Excellent analysis as always, I really enjoy everone's opinions.

Last season one of the posters performed an excellent analysis of the Nash Equilibrium and how it impacted that season. I apologize I cannot credit the poster but the insight was amazing, and they nailed Chris as the winner of the game after only a few episodes. If EPMB and JP believe in it enough to mention it during the Thailand reunion show, perhaps it is worthwhile to examine how well each player is being edited in there ability to play the game based on Nash Equilibrium.

Ulong is being edited purely as a L-Tribe (leaderless). The great scene with all of them standing around after voting off Jolanda, still makes me chuckle. James, Kim, Angie, and Ib as, or edited as, followers. Stephanie has a chance of coming out the leader, but the disjointed voting at Ulong leads me to believe that, if she is a leader, she doesn’t have currently have control over anyone outside of James and Angie. I thought JP suggesting at TC of “get a goal”, could really imply “get a leader”. In episode 3 we began to see the emergence of BJ as a potential leader type. Spoilers aside, if Stephanie or Bobby Jon can step up as a leader this would become an N-Tribe and could potentially improve the standing of all the tribe members. If they don't, this tribe is dust, along the great lines of other leaderless tribes. Anyone remember Pagong. Regardless, Steph and BJ have been edited as the two favorites on Ulong.

Koror, at best, is being edited as an N-Tribe (one leader) or at worst, is a D-Tribe (two leaders). Tom and Ian are both leader types and both appear to be willing to acquiesce to control by the other. We also may see a fat-five scenario where one will be edited as the leader, while the other becomes the strategic decision maker. There is also a possibility that Katie could become the strategic decision maker for this alliance. While Tom and Ian have no TD confessions, Katie has four, one of which discussed the decisions and consequences theme. Ian did pick her first and she then picked Tom. This could be a pretty tight alliance and, without conflict, one leader should emerge. Of course Koror has yet to visit TC and all this could change once strategy is put on the front burner. Gregg and Jenn appear to be followers, I don’t think anyone has ever projected the UTR strategy better than Jenn.

On a side note, I found the numbers of confessionals and concern regarding the Jeff/Kim romance to be quite high for a romance that was never really fleshed out and not the determining factor in the boot of Jeff or the targeting of Kim. Could these be greater concerns and foreshadowing for the Koror tribe in dealing with the rumored Greg/Jenn relationship? Just a thought.

The remaining four members appear to have a much weaker alliance of their own. I believe Caryn and Coby have the desire to lead, but not the strength or charisma of Tom or Ian. Regardless of desire, Coby appears to be willing to take more a followers role, while Caryn is not. Willard and Janu, as of now, are sheep. I agree that the editing has Willard going first, but according to Nash Equilibrium Caryn should go next and Coby will probably vote against her. He is being edited as playing a smarter game.

Regardless whether Koror is a N-Tribe or D-Tribe Tom, Ian and Katie are set up well to continue further. Coby is also being edited well in his ability to adapt and take more of a followers role in a tribe where there is already a dominate leader.

Once again, I apologize for being unable to link to last year’s analysis or the original article, both of which are excellent.

ETA its Coby not Colby.

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03-06-05, 05:36 PM (EST)
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102. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
Rosie, I could be mistaken, but I believe KOBrien fan, (Katie) deserves credit for that.

She nailed Chris early on. Go KO!

Please call me Cat!!
(suddenly wishing I was 20 yrs younger and lived in Alabama)

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03-06-05, 07:04 PM (EST)
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103. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
Yes, Rosie, great memory! It was indeed our beloved KOfan that nailed Chris using the Nash gaming theory that you mention. At the time I was intrigued by it and she sent me to the site. The best scenario it turned out to be was the tribe with the one leader. It was great to be the leader of a tribe of followers. In a tribe that had more than one leader though, it was best to be an UTR follower. So, keeping this in mind, I agree that you have pegged Ulong correctly...they are a tribe full of followers with no distinct leader....things don't look good. I have yet to make a complete assessment of Koror yet, as we have not really had a good look at tribal dynamics. The glimpses that we are getting however do suggest they may have more than one leader, and if that's the case, look to an UTR, follower in that tribe to go the farthest....I'm holding out with my prediction until some more dynamics at Korer are presented.

Great post!

Fp

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03-14-05, 09:31 AM (EST)
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114. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 09:32 AM (EST)

In this case, Ian makes a great case to be the winner under the Nash gaming theory. There's a few take-charge personalities in the tribe, and Ian is a leader -- but he does it quietly and lets Tom make most of the 'loud' decisions in the tribe and as a result, people such as Caryn are whining and bitching openly about Tom ... but not a peep about Ian's leadership so far.

The editing is becoming more and more clear, in my mind, that Ian is going to beat out Tom at the end. We've been shown a few negative comments from Tom and towards him by others, while we have yet to hear one single negative thing about Ian. We're being made to like Tom more than Ian through the editing so far, though, I'd think -- a slight misdirection to cause viewers to focus on Tom a little more away from the real winner, Ian?



Scratch and sniff

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03-07-05, 06:25 AM (EST)
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104. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
Could there be any better of a contrast between these two tribes than the IC vs RC.

I don't believe we have ever seen a tribe fall appart like this before. We've seen tribes go on losing streaks before but never with this degree of a melt down. Ulong has to be shaking their heads at how they are losing to Koror and for Ibe and Kim they are hearing nothing but some loss change. I really doubt they understand what Jify has said at TC or why they are losing. They are a tribe devoid of any self realization.

Ulong:

Angie has evened out as stated by VS and others. She, in a weird sort of way is her tribes strongest member. She is getting the Rupert underdog edit. This person is usually the surprise boot.

BJ with all those bags on his back was symbolically carrying his tribe on his back. It wasn't enough. All of BJ's hard work is hardly appreciated or even noticed by his self adsorbed tribe. EPMB is putting a lot of effort into showing the futility of BJ's effort.

Kim, is one of those contestants who just manages to hang on week after week despite herself. Her still being in this game is a testament to the bad choices Ulong has made.

James is providing the commetary for his tribe and their complete lack of cohession is revealed in his words. He is playing the game within his tribe but has no clue that the game is played as a tribe FIRST.

Stephs edit is interesting in that Jeff is showing her as real competitor and her and Jen going at it in the RC was our first hint of War. Jify comments about her and Jen going out it could be a hint of more trouble for those two later on. Her being the last women in the IC was pointed out by Jify. She would have fit well in with Koror. I'm glad you mentioned her prior relationship with Tom. I don't think EPMB would have shown us that if they hadn't been brought back together later on.

Ibe a lot like Kim has nothing but his looks. He was seen more this week, but only because in the IC he managed to finally be a factor. His comments about how Koror works as a tribe, yet he draws no conclusion from that.

Koror:

We have been shown no alliance or potential voting blocks. This tribe is not SHOWN to be playing the game on an individual level. They are playing the game as a tribe. They are the anti-Ulong. This editing pattern is important because it has gone on since Ep1.

Are we starting to see a War Theme?
Tom, Ian and Gregg just three knuckleheads. We'd expect Gregg to be the strongest member of this group yet it's Tom followed by Ian. In the IC it was Tom's leadership that allowed them to catch up, yet as VS pointed out it was Ian, who diving, struck the fatal blow to Ulong. Gregg was just there as a soider, hmmm...Is it me or are we starting to flesh out a war theme?
We have the superior looking fire power of Ulong against the what appears to be the undermanned Koror. Koror may be losing the battles ie the RC but they are winning the war ie the IC's.

There is no investment in Willard what so ever. He is this seasons Chad.

Katie, who can't perform in challenges, yet the focus is on her as being bossy and hard to get along with.

Caryn is shown as confrontational and a quick to blow her fuse. She is not as much of a team player as the others. Coby and her could be a potential alliance yet nothing has been said.

Coby is shown as the sneaky one.

Jen's store has yet to be fleshed out.

You know you're in trouble when...
..after 3 boots you have yet to have hardly any face time or even your name mentioned. Tops to that list is Willard followed by Ibe and then Jen.

Still getting a negative edit...
...Kim, James(funny and paranoid), Caryn, Coby and Katie.

Getting a good edit...
Angie, BJ, Steph, Ian, Tom, Gregg and the only person who makes two of my lists is Jen.
DRONES

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03-07-05, 07:36 AM (EST)
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105. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
DRONES, I know you have, (like myself) been anxiously awaiting the war theme to present itself and it does seem we may see the initial stirrings of it. Let's hope it doesn't die out the way Ulong seems to be

Again, great thoughts everyone and keep them coming. In a very strange season, the more the better

If Ulong goes yet again to Tribal Council, I don't think there is any other perspective boot but Kim which sometimes in the world of Survivor, the obvious boot IS the boot. With Koror, I do believe the Caryn and Katie issues may be a means of misdirection for now so the audience will be somewhat surprised if Willard goes.

One other note as I had found earlier Coby's "throw away" comment the first episode strange. When Bobby got picked, Coby stated "Good choice" As we established, Bobby is getting a very positive edit and the weight of Ulong on his shoulders. At this time, I do still believe Bobby is eliciting sympathy from the viewers and that is usually NOT a good sign; in the same token it does have me question whether he gets far enough to infiltrate the Korors. I am positive on Stephenie based on the pre tribe alliance talks. Bobby's admiration of Tom and Coby's offhand remark left in gives those who rely on the editing pause as to what this may mean.

I will be watching closely this week again to Bobby in particular seems Stephenie I have felt will be safe for quite some time. Angie again, does give me the impression that in some form she will reach her end by the hands of Koror and since her underdog status is done, all that is left is her as a competitor. She doesn't need to get to the end now.

The pre show analysis we did is pretty much stable; BJ is the only surprise thus far. I do think there is a shark in Koror's midst. It remains to be seen whether the Koror contingent comes out on top.


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03-07-05, 09:35 PM (EST)
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107. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
Agree, enjoyed your insights DRONES!

VS, your observations about the challenges is what grabbed me most this round. I wish I can keep everything you say at the forefront, but hey, I'm just not very good at that (so I rely on you).

"Ulong does well in individual challenges and Koror does well in team challenges." Paraphrazed. I'll be looking for this edit this week. Will this edit continue with the challenges given for week 4? Or could team dynamics be changing and did we get a clue last week?

Coby noted that 9 people is too much and people are starting to get on eachothers nerves. Could this be the sign that this week the team challenge won't go to Koror due to infighting?

Does Ulong's desperation to win an IC cause them to finally come together and work as a team, (perhaps appoint a leader) in the team challenges?

LookeeLoo

Another Dicey Original 2004

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03-08-05, 10:19 AM (EST)
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108. "RE: Pre - Episode 3"
Interestingly, this week it looks like the RC will require teamwork (according to the Storyboard they will have to build something), while the IC is a one-against-one competition. In theory Koror is better suited to win the RC and Ulong the IC. We'll see if that is what happens.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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03-08-05, 01:31 PM (EST)
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109. "RE: Challenge Thoughs"
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-05 AT 01:38 PM (EST)


Yes indeed BR In theory, it would seem that Koror would win the RC and Ulong the IC. If this does not turn out to be the case, I do wonder though if it could indicate a turning of the tides for Ulong? With that I would say, LLoo, I would certainly agree with your thuoghts


ETA: kingfish I meant to reply to you as well. You know I was only joking with you over your sarcasm

What seems to be a sub-theme (to me) is the contrast between appearance and substance. Not necessarily any foreshadowing or longevity clues, but the contrasts are interesting, Jeff (strong but a quitter) and Angie (pudgy/weird but a fighter winner), or Ian (stick boy/killer, competitor), or Tom (older guy, out lasts younger), Ibe (big strong guy, but ultimately beaten by stick boy), Stephanie (woman who outlasts men).

Is MB out to teach the world a lesson in life? Hope not.

I do believe this is something that MB does like to do often. I think he did this in other seasons as well especially Thailand. I think a trade story telling from Mark Burnett is the deception of people in a variety of ways. He couldn't have told a better story regarding THAT in this season


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03-11-05, 01:36 PM (EST)
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110. "Coby's story not over?"
Coby and Angie have followed parallel paths in this game. Both started out considering themselves the "underdogs." Coby said the same thing about himself again last night.

Both then proved themselves as standout players in challenges. With Angie, we've heard her tribe voice their respect for her performance. Insider transcripts show Coby's tribe responded similarly after he smoked James last night, and Coby had a nice confessional about it being a victory after being laughed at in sports in the past. But that wasn't included in the show.

Could Coby have at least another "triumph" coming? Maybe a tough RC win that ironically makes a merged tribe wary of his strength, and he gets voted out?

Then we'd see the significance of the Angie/Coby encounter on Day 1. Both thought they'd be the underdogs, but their downfall ended up being their strength (if the "Angie gets booted by Koror next episode" prediction proves true).

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03-13-05, 01:27 PM (EST)
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111. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
I'll get us started with EP4.

Koror was dominant this week against Ulong, in both the RC and IC. Suprisingly Ulong still sees themselves as the "better" tribe. The men of Ulong, as was pointed out by Jify at TC, didn't get the job done, and the women carried their tribe. Could this mean that one or both of the women in Ulong goes farther than any of the men in the game?

Team Play vs Individual Play

Ulong is still playing the game as individuals. They are a tribe without either direction or any clear leadership. It's not as if this tribe is without any potential leaders. Angie, Steph or BJ could clearly fill this role. It's as if they are in a constant state of anarchy. Ulong was still working on their RC up until the last minute. Like most of the challenges they were were behind Koror who had finished well before the inspector arrived and were ready to go.

EPMB is going out his way to show that in order to survive this game the players must first become a team. This is why there is so much focus on the strong team play of Koror vs the individual play of Ulong. Even players like Caryn and Coby are shown to give way to the leadership of Ian and Tom. This was shown when they choose Ian as their representative for the RC, despite the fact that there were others who were willing to take on that role.

Ulong
BJ and Angie are the two players that we are suppose to cheer for on that tribe.

Angie is the player who was thought to be the weakest and was choosen last. She has redeemed herself, and is shown to be one of her tribes strongest memmbers. Her story is almost completed. She has outlasted almost all of the women and is no longer seen as the "freak" or her tribe.

BJ is tilting at windmills. All of his hard work is hardly recognized. It has been pointed out by several players in his tribe that he is going to wear himself out. He is the voice of frustration for his tribe.

Steph is clearly UTR and is safe for a while. Her and Jen keep getting pitted in head to head competitions and she has yet to loose. This is the second time those two have gone head to head in a RC. Jiffy made a comment in the RC where they fought over the buoy, that the physical nature of this challange could produce some hard feelings. He said that this is also a social game. We have not seen the last of Steph vs Jen. Despite how hard those two have gone at each other in the RC, we have not seen any confessionals by either player regarding their match ups.

James was choosen as his tribes representative for the RC. I can't remember who first said he should do it, but the rest of his tribe agreed.

Koror
Willard and Janu have yet to have their story fleshed out. This does not bode well for them. Despite them still being in the game we are not suppose to get to invested in them. Willard made a sarcastic remark in confessional about Tom and Ian, when he said that they always make it a point to compliment each person in their tribe and to not leave anyone out.

Katie's story has revolved around her conflict with Caryn. I don't really know what else to say about her because there just isn't much there to talk about.

Caryn is the villian of this tribe. She's the one who's shown making all the snide comments. She is put off by the the power structure in this tribe but is unable to do anything about it.

Jen has had very little face time except when she has battled with Steph, as I pointed out above. She will get a spike in face time this episode when her relationship with Greg is finally shown.

Gregg gets face time but only when he is shown with Ian and Tom. That tells me he is the 3rd wheel of that threesome. Hopefully this week we can finally get some more face time for him.

Coby, although given a lot of face time, is still a mystery to me. If not for Caryn he would be seen as the villian. His confessionals are focused on the individual rather than the tribe. He's the narrator for his tribe. Coby, like Willard has noted the power that both Ian and Tom hold in their tribe.

You can't talk about Ian with out talking about Tom. They are the co-leaders of their tribe. They go to each other for all decisions and in confessionals have talked about the other as the leader, while never proclaiming themseves as such.

The only open conflict on Koror was between Katie and Caryn. What was noticebly missing was what the rest of their tribe thought. EPMB is putting in front of our face a tribe that is team oriented. They may have conflicts, but those conficts don't affect their performance.

In previouis seasons when one tribe wins a lot of IC, there is talk from that tribe of how they wouldn't mind losing(one tribe even threw a challange). There has only been one comment(I forget by who) made, that when you are with a group of people for a long period of time that someone is bound to get on your nerves.


DRONES

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03-13-05, 06:15 PM (EST)
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112. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
Episode four put the finishing touches on the Ulong Tribe. The team centered Koror tribe finally won a physicial challenge in the Sumo at Sea Challenge. Coupled with their win in the team based RC challenge of their new camp they can't do anything but get stronger. Not a good position for Ulong to be in when you are down by four members. James attempt to be a leader didn't go over to well as both Kim and Steff complained about him losing to Coby in the IC.BJ, although he is the workhorse in this tribe seems to always come up short while competing individually with Tom.They are at the point in the game where nomatter what happens during the rest of the game they will be at a numerical disadvantage Again not a good position to be in when the other tribe is still strongly united. James and BJ's time remaining in this game will be limited. Angie's comments during the IC will not be taken well by the Koror tribe. They are so team related they will take personal attacks on teamates as an attack on them individually. Angie's personal quest to fit in and show what she is made of to her teammates will not endear her to the Koror tribe.In fact her challenge performances might lead to her taking the walk sooner rather than later.Steff as the strongest Ulong women should have a target on her back but she hasn't been ruffling any feathers on Ulong as well as on Koror as far as I can see. Ibe has been UTR for most of this season and his story is yet to be told in my opinion. This is my take on the notmuchlongerinthegame team for what it's worth.RedBeard
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03-14-05, 01:43 AM (EST)
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113. "Tom's edit"
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 02:00 AM (EST)

While I like Tom, I think the editing might be setting him up for a fall.

His character is basically the strong leader on the dominant tribe. That type hasn't done well in the past. The two who stick out in my mind are John C. from S4 and Ami last season. Both were liked and respected at the beginning of the season, but their strength was their undoing. The underlings banded together and voted out the leader. Ami was pretty much on the outs with her tribe by her end; John might have pulled it off if it wasn't for that coconut challenge.

To a lesser extent, Rupert falls into this category (but although he was a challenge powerhouse, he never had any clout in the strategy side). Lex tried to take the position. It almost got him booted early, and his alliance shot him down the next episode (when they voted out Brandon instead of Frank, like Lex wanted).

I really can't think of any counterexamples. Brian comes close, but he was more of a strategy guy, and I wouldn't characterize his team as strong (Jan? Clay?) or weak, since they held their own in challenges eventually. Not to say I don't want Tom to prevail. I just wouldn't be surprised if we eventually see a shake-up either within the "Coby 5," or some of the underdogs convince some within that alliance to turn. How the heck else could Caryn last as long as the spoilers say?

ETA: Quick note about Bobby Jon. We've also seen the "strong leader of a weak tribe" character before. That one doesn't do well, either. Think Andrew, Ken or Sarge.


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03-14-05, 10:36 AM (EST)
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115. "Episode Four"
Great observications everyone!! I needed to rewatch this episode since it appeared on the surface to be fairly straight forward. Koror prevails and Ulong dies.

You have basically stated much of my thoughts so forgive me Iif I am repeating your (DRONES, we certainly had consistent thoughts in quite a number of areas) Some of everyone's comments are a bit different from my observations, I'm glad we do this so I can "see" things that I may be missing

Warning: Long post ahead (but that is nothing new)

In terms of “fluff stuff” there was not as much as we usually get but we did see an interesting emergence of a male vs. women contigent over at Ulong. No doubt this will be a factor somehow in the boot situation

The characters essentially stayed the same from last episode with one or two differentials which do lead me to certain conclusions. First with that:

Characters with Editing Shifts/Dives

Ulong

James - Certainly a turn for the worse; not only was he shown to completely be the antithesis of Ian in the reward challenge. Most prevalent were his derisive comments about Coby (I have yet to see a winner shown discussing someone in that vein become the winner. If there is any negative commentary by a winner, it is not as specific as he was about Coby.) In addition, we are hearing first hand from his own tribe with regard to James “over actions” with regard to his methods at the reward challenge and his demise at the immunity challenge. James edit is going South.

Angie Again I had noted when they did the challenge in water where she was a wildcat on Janu and Gregg. We established the “underdog” edit is long gone and in fact, she is truly a valuable member to her tribe. The Sumo challenge has made her edit dip even further. DESPITE the fact we “appreciate” how far she has come, I would suggest that others who determine her fate may not like her displays.

” We are not going back to Immunity! Tribal Council” Let THEM know how it feels!"

Gave me a chuckle but the tenet here is that she is not making friends with this other tribe, Koror. They aren’t seeing the underdog she was; they are seeing a very “nasty” player and a potentially dangerous one. Angie HAD potential to get further until this edit change. Again as stated when this edit turned; it seems prophetic that Koror will be able to rid themselves of her.

Koror

Jenn speaks Is it safe to say that the majority of us did a double take? I know I did and immediately thought Jenn has finally entered the game. It was a throwaway comment but if you noticed closely, we saw various times throughout the episode that Gregg and Jenn were together in situations where we could have seen OTHER Korors doing the same thing. Gregg and Jenn both shouting encouragement to each other at the IC, Gregg with his arm around Jen after the RC and so forth. The editors made a point of showing this and with the upcoming promo of this “romance” it makes sense.

After this episode we will be able to see where Jenn is going, i.e. a storyline that ENDS after the romance gets full attention or whether there is more to her there than JUST the romance. The fact we know she is insulated in the dominant alliance is certainly helpful.

Willard Willard speaks!! Again, like Jenn, we question why now? Of note however with Willard is the obvious fact he is the oldest and weakest but more interesting is that his name was not mentioned during Coby’s confessional of where everyone stands Coby mentions Ian, Tom, Gregg, Katie and Jen as an alliance and himself, Janu and Caryn as the “underdogs” Unless I did not hear Coby, Willard's name was not mentioned This leads one to conclude he is not integral to any upcoming story Willard’s confessional was also not about himself but sharing a perspective on Tom (and Ian) which WILL be integral to Koror. Sadly, Willard is not.

Caryn Like Angie, Caryn’s characterization is increasingly negative. The last show capitalized on Tom’s almost larger than life status. Yet Caryn is shown increasingly biting (marginally about Tom) and everyone deferring to him. Caryn did not come off to the viewers in a situation where we could empathize; it was viewed as being petty and jealous especially in light of Tom’s stellar edit this entire episode.

In summary, Angie, James, Willard, Caryn editing does not bode well for them. Caryn I question for a longer edit as her obvious quest to rid herself of those like Tom, Ian and Katie will no doubt surface. Considering she is in a faction with Coby who by all intents and purposes has been shown to us as really the only narrative regarding the game itself, Caryn may get one dig in prior to leaving. However, this “attitude” we are being shown especially against Tom and Ian will serve her no purpose

The Challenges

I have been glued to my television with these challenges. I must say they have to be the most consistently brutal immunity challenges I recall

Again, note the differences that Mark Burnett is painstakingly showing us about each tribe.

In the Reward Challenge picking their representatives again, we practically were shown cartoonish behavior on the part of Ulong. All standing around, umming and then they decide............................ to go fishing.

At Koror, all gathered around, discussing options (albiet some were not as happy) but the decision were made and was enthusiastically stated in a chorus of “Ian” when Jeff arrived.

Ian: Asks the tribe if THEY are okay with the tools he selected
James Confidently and somewhat arrogantly selects the tools
Ian KOROR is going nuts (regarding their enthusiasm in building)
James: I’M feeling good. I can take MY skills.....

Again, Koror, despite who is “leading” is about team effort, NOT individual. Again, Ulong is all about individual. This may serve them well come “every man for himself” but not when you want to win as a tribe.

James being the leader but not behaving as a true leader. His comments were condescending and did not promote teamwork. Ian and Tom on the other hand were encouraging and citing good work.

Willard: "They are very careful not to go without saying something good in front of the group." (I would be interested in hearing the rest of that confessional. Interestingly enough it could have been fleshed out where Willard stated something along the lines of negativity about it. If that is the case it is then patently obvious that only CARYN is meant to be shown negative about Tom)

The finished product showed Ulong all surface, no substance. Nice vase but that won’t win you the game. Comparative to their own surface. Much note made on Ulong and their physical prowess however that isn’t getting the job done either.

At the Immunity Challenge a lot of interesting scenes. Is it any wonder that BJ and Tom would fight each other after the dialogue we heard from Bobby about Tom?

Stephenie and Angie both blatantly showing their strength. The major difference between these two is the pre tribe alliance discussions Stephenie had with Tom whereas Angie’s talk with Coby was more about “misfits coming together” This had nothing to do with the game as evidenced by Coby NOT picking her.

Ibe’s personality rearing its ugly head. Blatant cockiness at any challenge NEVER bodes well for the person doing it.

Interesting quotes

Angie”They found Nemo” (More humorous than anything but Ulong just keeps getting the tiny fish)

Stephenie “I can’t believe the other tribe hasn’t lost anything”

James “It’s our time now

Ian “You never know what rabbit may pull out of its hat”

Considering the extent of these types of conversation that were going on, it is suggestive then Koror is going to Tribal Council. The promos do indicate as such and the obvious foreshadowing solidifies this, however these comments are coupled with:

Bobby “I hope we learned something but right now I don’t think we have”

Kim “I’m sitting back and letting the beast attack the beast”

James: “Koror is using strategy come IC”

Despite the fact that Ulong is perfectly aware of what Koror is doing right, Ulong has failed to make adjustments on THEIR part to fix what is wrong. A tribe cannot win if adjustments are not made to correct the problem.

Tom “We are a tough tribe, we’re okay” (Indeed they are and by all accounts, remain to be)

JProbst”Jen, scraping those knees but not giving up” (Jen does battle and against Steph; Steph has always won those battles but Jen doesn’t give up, I can see that there may be a boot scenario where both are shown as potential targets)

JProbst “James on the edge” (No question, James IS on the edge and will be gone sooner rather than later)

JProbst “Ulong stays alive!” (Note at that moment, there was a shot of Stephenie posed and smiling after her victory- Stephenie stays alive?)

Bobby Jon “Fight, fight, fight, fight, that’s all I know how to do” (I do believe that Bobby will be fighting until the very end of his stay)

Kim to Steph: “Kick all the guys off” (May be prophetic, note that this is said to Stephenie or at least shown saying just to Stephenie; Angie was not part of this instruction by Kim)

JProbst “Tom, you are a great tour guide!” (And this is what I sense sadly with Tom, a great, great tour guide for Koror but not the winner; see more below)

Interesting Visuals and Showings

Bobby Jon and the tree Wow, imagery at its finest. BJ hacking away, hacking away, interspersed with: ”When I am working hard on something, my whole body and soul goes into it. You got to want it...... That’s what winners do..... keep fighting and perservering” Yet, what happens.........he can’t get the tree to fall This is the symbolic "stuff" I live for

Bobby, again, has come across very well in the editing. He takes responsibility at Tribal Council, he commends the women in their performance and so forth. Alas, Bobby’s sympathetic edit (again) signifies to me the audience is to feel badly for him; this doesn’t bode well in terms of long term range. Bobby’s story concerning Tom may have resolved itself at the immunity challenge; they met up with each other “man vs. man” but Bobby lost out. For all that Bobby is trying to do to work and prevail, he comes up short.

Tom and his omnipotence Could Tom be shown next week wearing angel wings? It seems that is what Mark Burnett is trying to shown. Between the bleeding shot on the challenge mat that almost appeared to be swathed in sunlight and slowed down a bit and the way he is shown blatantly to be the leader of Koror as per Willard: ”Tom is our motor that makes the train run” his almost unearthly editing is too good to be true. Unlike Rupert, I believe Tom IS all this but like Rupert, he cannot and will not, in my opinion, win this game. A major reason for this is the editing of Tom in conjunction with the editing of Ian

Both Ian and Tom have undoubtedly been shown as the leaders and positive foundation for Koror. However, note that Ian is not nearly showcased in this vein as Tom is Ian’s stellar edit is there but it isn’t. Willard makes mention of both of them, Tom suggests that Ian IS, in fact, been a good leader for them. But, Tom is the one shown incredibly dynamic and in the same token brings out the ire in Caryn. Ian is shown very positively but it is much more subtle It is suggestive to me then that Tom goes out in a blaze of glory whereas Ian subtly moves forward. At this moment with the editing, there is no reason for me not to believe Ian prevails

Ironic and/or telling?

A nest of busy bees then a shot of Koror

The snake again then we switch to Ulong

The tiny little rat at Koror (note Katie’s comments about the rats)

Ian and Tom mock dancing and Ian dips Tom

Gregg mentions on the Insider how Janu is key to his plan yet Coby mentions Janu in his underdog contingent. Barely anything thus far shown of Janu yet apparently she is a key player for two sides of a coin. We may see something evolving shortly for Janu and her lack of showing DESPITE that apparently a lot happens regarding her, makes me question if there is going to be a major emergence for Janu

Coby is practically the only member of Koror who talks in game talk. He will be the one to watch when key boot situations comes forth.

Animal imagery very prevalent in terms of fish, snakes and rats. Again, there are quite a few rats at Koror (the underdogs or Katie or Janu, who had the most reaction to the rats?) The snakes show up before Ulong YET Koror slaughtered them and who is indeed the great shark in all this.

Long Term or Short Term

At this juncture, I would have to say in light of Ulong’s standings, regardless if one or two sneak their way into Koror, their odds on paper are not good. Therefore, it would be foolhardy to suggest any of them to win this game. I would suggest I like for end game Ian to come out on top especially in light of the subtle editing he is receiving comparative to Tom In addition, we are still left with the unanswered question of a not yet shown pairing between Katie and Ian as Ian did pick her. Katie has been the biggest narrator of any of the females on Koror We now see development with Gregg and Jenn beginning Interestingly enough, where WOULD that leave Tom? Tom is a beautiful fourth place, perhaps third place finisher in editing terms. Willard we were finally shown, albeit just a glimpse. Some may feel surprise that we are going to have to see more of him before he goes and after this many seasons of watching this show I do not agree with that assessment. No investment means no story (including what is going on that we see on the Insider) There has been nothing further on Willard. The mere fact we finally saw something come from Willard and it involved the makeup of the tribe rather than how he feels about himself on the tribe coupled with Coby’s mention of everyone EXCEPT Willard is not good He is also the eldest.
Caryn is being set up to rock Koror’s boat, her editing, however, does not bode well for a winner. Coby is going to have some very very interesting moments We have seen the player in him from the beginning. Again, I equate him to be much like Amazon Rob and see him probably getting deep into the game but not quite making it. Katie is a shoe in for as long as Ian and/or Tom lasts BUT, I don’t like her as the winner. Janu, an extremely interesting lack of showing in a scenario where she should be. Janu, may in fact, be the one to upend whoever’s alliance is in control Gregg and Jen are evolving which is a good thing, Gregg has individual strength to forge ahead and Jen will probably do a decent amount of time but certainly, in my opinion is not at the very end

Stephenie again, in my opinion must meet up again with her pre tribe alliance people Bobby cannot get any more sympathetic to us which is not good long term Angie’s impact has concluded, James is as good as gone Ibeis our resident non impact person; he will be a boot when he is a boot; he has neither longevity or major threat story status.


The best editing positions are: Ian, Coby, Stephenie, Katie and Gregg. Janu intrigues me and Jen will probably be steady “along for the ride” edit.

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03-14-05, 01:10 PM (EST)
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117. "RE: Episode Four"
MB often seems to like a story line where pride and arrogance cometh before the fall - such as with John and Amy. Ian and Tom are true leaders though, I believe unlike anyone that has been on Survivor before. I do not believe that the power will go to their heads and result in arrogance leading to their downfalls. Willard's comments about Ian and Tom being one and each of them being careful to say something nice to the others every day suggest leaders who will maintain perspective and not turn on each other voluntarily. I am eager to see whether they will live up to their better or baser instincts.
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03-14-05, 02:17 PM (EST)
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118. "Ian and the "RAT""
WONDERFUL POST VS..they just keep getting better!!

I just wanted to add some info. on Ian and to note that before they showed Koror for the first time in the episode, they showed a RAT and then KATIE is shown going to get treemail with Jenn as her tagalong... I think Katie will end up being the rat to Tom and get him ousted at F4 and try to be it to Ian but he prevails with the jury.

Some telling quotes from Ian:

About him being picked the leader and having experience with his dad's construction company, farm, etc.

"It worked out okay."

I would say that could be the "winning quote" about the game as a whole!!

About the RC challenge and Koror

"Koror is going nuts with this thing."

Again, not only with the RC in ep. 4 but with the game as a whole.

After they found out they won the RC Ian says:

"Everything worked out the way it was supposed to!"

Another winning quote?


Katie is still being edited as the Koror Mother figure(not caryn who is the 'biotchy' aunt figure)

After the Survivor crew builds the great shelter it is Katie that says it will make "A great home" and the "quality of life will be much better."


I don't think anyone else but Ian is getting close to the winner's edit....WOOHOO!!


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03-14-05, 02:57 PM (EST)
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119. "RE: Episode Four"
Great analysis, VS. I always read and follow along this thread with great interest. This point in particular jumped out at me.

In addition, we are still left with the unanswered question of a not yet shown pairing between Katie and Ian as Ian did pick her.

I think it's fascinating that we're 5 episodes into this season before we're given a clue as to how the alliances on Koror lay (through Coby's confessional). There obviously hasn't been a great need to reveal the alliances, since Koror keeps winning immunity, and I think this is some indication that Ulong will continue to lose--except this week, when a Koror boot will follow Coby's brief revelation of the Koror alliance.

This certainly doesn't mean that Koror hasn't been forming alliances--they didn't know when the first tribal council was going to be held, so they formed them very quickly--we just haven't been shown them. I think there was an Ian-Katie-Tom alliance (and I'd include Stephanie in there as well) from the very beginning, which governed the first three picks. I think Stephanie would have been Tom's next pick, except Bobby John picked her for Ulong first. This alliance has been implied, but it hasn't been shown or mentioned, until Coby's confessional--and even then, not by itself, but with Gregg and Jenn attached.

I believe that alliances and strategies revealed usually do not succeed, so I think this is an indication that these 5 aren't the final 5--but because we haven't seen the Ian-Katie-Tom core by themselves yet, they might be our final 3 after all. I also think we were shown Stephanie's initial part of this alliance (through her brief interaction with Tom in episode 1) because her role this alliance hasn't fully played out yet--whether she might be welcomed back at the merge or discarded.


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03-14-05, 10:10 PM (EST)
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120. "RE: Episode Four"
VS, I don't think I've commented before, but I always look forward to your posts. I find myself trying to make sense of why we're being shown what we're being shown but I usually can't make a coherent statement about my musings until I see your post.

I do follow the spoilers and try to think in long term and short term. Dunno if it helps. I'll know more this week. At the moment I'm looking at things more generally instead of specifically - what have we seen the most these last few weeks and how can it be applied to this week and the final episode.

Anyhoo, your post has jelled some of my random thoughts. It's still not coherent, but here goes:

On Ulong we have Steph who turned the tide against Jo, their leader, plus Ib, James, & Angie. All were quite willing to vote out Kim over Jeff. BJ was the only person on that tribe to recognized half a Jeff was worth more to them than an entire Kim. I believe he was thinking short term & long term - in the future. The others were just looking at the next TC and not beyond. Does this mean those who don't think about the future, have no future?

We aren't seeing an edit that leads us to believe BJ will be voted out soon. Will EPMB find a way to extend an olive branch to BJ and let the rest of his tribe be annihilated?

I think Caryn's fate is to end up on Ulong, the tribe that has no leader. There's talk of a swap this week and a double TC vote. If 2 people are swapped, I think that BJ and Caryn switch tribes. If so, I wonder if we'll at least temporarily not see so much of the BJ sympathy edit.

Ian's Bad News Bears quote still bothers me. Whether it's getting back their flint or winning an IC, we've seen Koror prevail in the end, against what appear to be long odds. At the end, will an individual from Ulong win the reward, or will they go the way of the rest of their tribe, finishing second and losing immunity when somebody originally from Koror prevails?

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03-14-05, 11:47 PM (EST)
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121. "RE: Episode Four"
What I find interesting is that except for Coby's confessional about a possible alliance break down and Willards comment about Tom and Ian we have yet to see strategy talk by the players.

Ulong has lost 4 players yet there is still no talk of alliances. Why? One reason could be because there isn't any. They seem to be flying by the seat of their pants as was evident in the RC. They have no long term strategy as individuals or as a tribe. Another reason, and the one I subscribe to, is that it doesn't matter what their alliance strategy is, because none of the advance enough in the game for it to matter.

Koror strategy is being hidden for now. There is no need to show it right now because they are winning. Their story is being saved until closer to the merge.

I can't remember who said this, but in the first episode someone commented about how hard it would be to go against Tom in the finals. Since the first ep. he's been shown this way.

Ian has not been shown this way, or had any comments about him as a potential F2 opponent. He's not even being shown as a threat.

Caryn's role is to upset the apple cart. Unlike Ibe or Willard who when they are boot will be booted, having no impact on the game. She's the rat in her tribe and will be working to chip at the edges of the Tom, Ian, Gregg, Jenn and Katie alliance.

The 1st ep showed Steph and Tom making an early alliance. This was shown for a reason along with her battles with Jen. I keep going back to Jiffy's comments right before those two went at it in the water for the buoy. Jiffy said something to the effect that this is a social game and these battles could create tension later on after the merge. The battle between these two is not over. Will Steph get the better of Jen come the merger, or will Steph be done in by the social aspect of this game because she went after Jen, and Jen didn't like it.

Speaking of head to head battles, we have yet to be shown any negative comments(remember James in is own awkward way was complimentary of Coby) by the competitors about these battles. We've been shown raw emotion by Angie and Ibe, but those weren't direct personal attacks.

Angie has completely switched over from an under dog misfit to a strong player with attitude. A complete switch in editing.

BJ's edit has not changed. A hard worker trying to do it all. Taking the troubles of his tribe on his own shoulders. You cheer him on knowing that he's not going to prevail.

Ulong has been set up by EPMB as the perfect example of why team work is so important early on in this game. Every single season of survivor has started out with Jiffy saying how these individuals are going to have to work as a tribe in order to survive. The imagery of Ulong, the entire tribe, going out to fish and only managing to get just a tiny one. Shots of them laying around the beach. Comments by James that we don't need a leader, plays perfectly into the editing of Ulongs demise.


DRONES

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03-14-05, 10:59 AM (EST)
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116. "James' edit"
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 11:34 AM (EST)

James seems to be a classic setup for next weeks boot. His edit this week was very negative, his clumsy and insulting attempt to compliment Coby, his default appointment as Ulong rep which he interpreted to be an appointment to BOSS. He went from Rep. to tyrant (get your A## over there!) a little too easily.

And he was shown as an ineffective leader, although some of that has to be pure negative editing since the latrine was finished (just barely) and seemed to be pretty good attempt.

The comments from the women about James that are shown are negative comments. To be fair, he did get a slight positive edit when the remark about being a redneck and not using a toothbrush. That might have been one of those "too good to pass up" remarks even if it worked against the image of James they were going for.

Although the editing is so obviously negative for James that one might smell a skunk (Sorry Pepe), and next weeks editing will be scrutinized, it's hard to escape the conclusion that James is the most probable Boot next week.

So, looks like next week is going to be a spoiling Yawner once again.

Nice job Drones and esp. VC.
Superficial vs Functional, the latrine comparison. There it is again

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03-15-05, 05:11 AM (EST)
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122. "Merged Tribe location"
I don't know how relevant this is to editing but I couldn't think of anywhere else to put it. I thought of it when I saw how good Koror's camp would be after they won the ep. 4 RC. It's like a 'curse', really, much like the car curse.

In most past seasons the tribes have had to choose which beach to live at once they merge. In every instance of this happening, the winner has come from the tribe that stayed at their original location after the merge:

S1 - Tagi Beach - Richard
S2 - N/A (a different camp altogether)
S3 - Boran camp - Ethan
S4 - Maraamu beach - Vecepia (yeah, she was switched to that tribe but it doesn't exactly go against my theory)
S5 - Chuay Gahn beach - Brian
S6 - N/A (different area)
S7 - Drake beach - Sandra
S8 - N/A (tribes didn't get to choose)
S9 - Lopevi - Chris

Watching how good the Koror camp now is, there is now way they won't choose that camp as their post-merge camp (if they get to choose). As you can see, past evidence suggests that the winner will come from Koror.

(attempts to ignore incredibly reliable spoilers that already suggests this outcome)

Of course, if they don't get to choose (which may also happen, if they wanted to rob the survivors of a brilliant shelter), it doesn't really disprove my theory.

I thought I would just like to throw that out there and see if anyone agrees with me, or if it's already been discussed, or if anyone can find a better place for it.

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03-15-05, 07:59 AM (EST)
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123. "RE: Merged Tribe location"
LAST EDITED ON 03-15-05 AT 11:21 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-15-05 AT 09:51 AM (EST)

great comments everyone and all comments are welcome. While this thread attempts to see the long term results based on the editing of the show, it is understandable that a lot of you are tempering your thoughts with spoilers which is perfectly okay. You'll have to forgive me of course if I don't quite understand some of them as I try not to let them cloud the editing issue or I would have to change the name of this thread to speculating based on spoilers

Gothmog and bobscure I look forward to reading more of what you each have to say as I stated before it helps ME see the show in a better light with different opinions as sometimes my thoughts get clouded due to my subjective opinions on some of the contestants.

Interesting premise applejack; it would be almost nonsensical that the merged tribe wouldn't live at Koror considering the accomodations they have and considering the majority of the merge will be made up of Korors anyway.

It is very hard in this line of speculation to deduce situations when we get barely a glimpse of tribal dynamics such with Koror. We have been getting bits and pieces but these are relevant since we are being shown them for a reason. Despite how wonderfully Koror is doing, MB does NOT want us to go completely ignorant of some potential problems brewing. With that said, the mere fact that Caryn has been part and parcel to a lot of it sheds light on what her role may very well be as DRONES suggested. The fact also that Coby made the AUDIENCE aware of what he observes indicates to me that he probably is going to be integral in strategizing. Ironically we have seen nothing from those like Ian and Tom, who, for the most part, should potentially feel a smack of vulnerability as leaders are aware of that position bringing vulnerability. We will obviously see much more when they go to their first Tribal Council and I have a feeling we are going to see much more of Caryn's thoughts and Coby's as well on this matter. However due to the fact that it seems a probablity that Willard would be deemed the first boot, we may not see an abundance of it. I would suspect this is going to be an emotional situation for Koror (remniscient of Rudy's boot at All Stars perhaps?)

At that point in time, Coby and Caryn will probably be seen a lot. Again interesting that Gregg includes Janu in his plans but from Coby's narrative, he is not aware of this. There will be no doubt a lot more conniving at Koror's SECOND tribal council with potential victims such as Tom, Caryn or Katie.

At this time again, I still feel that Ian is the best contender for the winner especially in light of the way the edit shows Tom and Ian though both of them appear equal in their positions at Koror. In looking back at any foreseeable quotes with reference to Ian, the James quote (though I have never subscribed to the quote editing of a winner HAS to be in the first episode)

James “That skinny little boy, he’s a fast bugger”

We will see if Ian can "outrun" the competition HOWEVER, I might add one other person and that is Coby

I do want to add in review of the pre season and first episode information as I think there is a lot of good information to be had from same. Coby was noted by Jeff (Probst) If he is as good as he thinks he is...... I had made note that Jeff said this same thing about Chris. In addition, Coby essentially IS primarily the only Koror that has been shown "game talking" which I feel is very relevant with many of the winners or at the very least, final two?

The trust test (for me anyway) is to see what happens to IAN's editing. If there is NO discussion of the game and strategy by him then I'm not sure of his winning. Consequently, if Coby maintains strategic discussion without it getting too over the top emotional, he may be in good shape as well.

So I will have to rephrase those at this time I think are in the best position to WIN. That being said there may be a third person in the final two with one of these people but editing wise they seem to be potentially on the right track


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03-15-05, 03:23 PM (EST)
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124. "RE: Merged Tribe location"
I don't know if their editing necessarily means Tom And Ian are in the best position to win, but I would certainly think they'd be around quite a while even if Koror weren't so dominant. Ian is certainly both performing and being edited much better than what I had expected based on pregame information, and while I had expected the typical "leader-type" behavior and editing from Tom, he has been a lot better diplomat than these leader types such as fireman, cops and military people usually are, and he's been an absolute MACHINE at the challenges and camp work, so I think they'll keep him around a lot longer than Survivor contestants typically keep people around who are as much a threat as Tom is. Based on what EPMB has been showing us, unless Tom falls victim to a "biggest threat" boot at some future TC, I think he will last longer than Ian.
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03-15-05, 06:10 PM (EST)
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125. "RE: Merged Tribe location"
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-05 AT 08:15 AM (EST)

Good thoughts RR I don't think Tom's editing at all is in a position to win (I think I posted it in one of my lonnnnnnng posts above) Tom's heroic edit is too much, he will and is a fan favorite but those types of edits that I have seen over the seasons do not fare well. There will be outcries when they are booted and we usually can anticipate a boot from the person who helped to instigate it. As I noted, both Ian and Tom are being portayed as the leaders but Ian's edit is getting it in more subtle tones; therefore Ian, to me, is more logical as a winner candidate.

However as I noted somewhere here, more times than not (I never include Vecepia in this type of speculation) the winner has some aspect of letting the audience see a strategy of some type. So far, Ian has not shown us anything. Will this change when Koror finally has to go to Tribal Council? It could. BUT, if Ian's editing continues on the same path with absolutely nothing but a story of his stay and his adventure (so to speak) then I would revise him as a lesser contender. This is why I also mention Coby potentially since we have seen a nice amount of him AND he has established (on the first day) and last episode a display of being aware of being IN THE GAME NOT JUST THE ISLAND.

It is difficult to assess Koror being in the position they are in just like it is difficult to assess any of Ulong to win considering where they stand as well; HOWEVER, Stephenie, to me would also fit an edit so far to be one of victory. Despite Ulong and their breakdown, stranger things can happen. One would never have though Chris would outlast that many women, it didn't appear logical though his edit did suggest longevity.

So, I would suggest that Stephenie has the best promise and at the very least, I trust she will meet up with her pre tribe potential alliance members. Since I normally look at the end first rather than week by week, conceivably Stephenie could win as well; I already noted her preseason and nothing has changed for me. The rest of Ulong I have already discussed as to their status.

Caryn is marginally receiving the villian edit (if one can be had at Koror) Notice the difference in what Willard said about Tom and Caryn. Willard's was an observation of what Tom does and Caryn's was tempered by cattiness. Willard MAY have continued to discuss that he "isn't buying it" but we didn't get the opportunity therefore suggesting we won't see him flesh out. Caryn, with her comments about Katie and Tom will most definitely have a role albiet a negative one. Janu seems to be PART of alliances but we haven't heard that from her mouth. Jen was finally seen and heard but all we saw was her repeating what the challenge entailed.

Gregg has been on the fringes and could expand into a definite player especially in light of the Insider comments (suspiciously ONLY in the Insider comments) and Coby has definitely narrated the Koror dynamic, if only, briefly. Katie has been an adept narrator and they usually last quite a bit as well.

But Tom? Oh no. Tom is Mark Burnett's editing dream to make us adore him. Winner wise, I would not put him there.

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03-16-05, 01:07 PM (EST)
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126. "RE: Merged Tribe location"
So what you're saying VS, is that EPMB is going to let "us" give Tom a million the week after the finale?


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03-16-05, 01:23 PM (EST)
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127. "RE: Merged Tribe location"
Well my friend, if they did, I may even be tempted to vote this time

I am very excited about tonight's episode. The fleshing out will be prevalent; not only by Koror with their own decision to make but also how Koror feels about the Ulong members. Like Vanuatu, I do think one person is going to let out a collective breath of relief much like John K. did for Ami. I don't feel Mark Burnett would give Koror more power than that. This is all about choices. By allowing Koror to do the decision making in its entirety for Ulong, takes away the premise. Everyone should have to make choices, even bad ones.

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03-16-05, 04:31 PM (EST)
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128. "RE: Merged Tribe location"
I agree with you VS. Tonights episode should give us some insight into the members of Koror as they attend TC for the first time. I am going to spend alot of time looking into Coby's statements because he is Koror's player and he seems to have insight into how the game might go from here.IMHO Coby will be the key to how the game goes for Koror from now until his boot.His comments during episode one lead to Jonathan not getting picked. He revealed the pecking order as he sees it on Koror during a confessional. I feel that for as long as he is around his insight into what is going on on his tribe should not be discounted. RedBeard

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03-17-05, 10:18 AM (EST)
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129. "Episode 5."
Just wanted to start a proper episode 5 subthread.

A couple of observations from last night:

Was Coby voting to immunized Angie it in terms of their story line? Did they leave the misfits discussion in Ep. 1 just so that we can understand why Coby did this?

Steph voted for BJ? Huh? That struck me as very odd. Certainly, Ibrehem was going home if it hadn't been for being granted a last second reprieve.

Gregg and Jenn really are morphing into Romber. Should we call them Grenn or Grennifer? Clearly though, this is a case of a strategy revealed (that Final 4 option of Grenn, Coby and Janu) that will not succeed. That Janu was featured in the promo means that she is safe for next week but she's likely in trouble next time Koror has to vote someone out.

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03-17-05, 10:35 AM (EST)
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130. "RE: Episode 5."
I thought it was Gregg who voted to immunize Angie. I'm curious if the Insider will show us who voted for whom in the immunity vote.

Steph voted for BJ? Huh? That struck me as very odd.

I thought so, too, but on TES this morning a caller asked Angie why they didn't go after James. Angie seemed unsure how to answer but she said that the feeling probably was that James would be safer than Bobby Jon to have around after the merge. And obviously Ulong is praying that the merge is right around the corner since they brought all their supplies to TC.


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03-17-05, 11:16 AM (EST)
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131. "RE: Episode 5."
As they were walking to TC, after having the voting sequence spelled out by JP. I was 90% convinced that there was no way that Angie could be voted out, even if Ibe (presumably Ulongs primary target) got immunity. With her record, why would the secondary focus be on her? But the fact that they were not prepared for the twist (the bestowing of one immunity by Koror) resulted in a unorganized NoGoLong vote, a shotgun result, and a tie (two votes ea) for Steph and Angie. Angie fell victim to a tie. How about that.

For those of us who have had to struggle to comeup with a logical scenario for a Angie boot (I was in the camp figuring that Koror would boot a Schlong), this is an interesting result.

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03-17-05, 11:39 AM (EST)
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132. "RE: Episode 5."
Katie is not getting a winner's edit - she's again being shown negatively, and the minority faction of her tribe sees her as being worthless. Should she make F2 as predicted, this means she would be less likely to get votes from Caryn(duh), Coby, and Janu since none of them would see her as a worthy champion.

Those in the minority alliance are smart enough not to stick their necks out when there is no chance of success. Coby acknowledged they didn't have the numbers, so they just hid in the majority vote to avoid ruffling anyone else's feathers. This even poured over into their behavior at the Ulong TC. Coby had been the one to suggest not rubbing the other tribe's noses in their victory, and the shots during the feast showed the C/C/J eating their stew in silence. They won't stick their necks out when there's nothing to be gained.


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03-17-05, 11:41 AM (EST)
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133. "RE: Episode 5."
>
>Gregg and Jenn really are morphing
>into Romber. Should we
>call them Grenn or Grennifer?
> Clearly though, this is
>a case of a strategy
>revealed (that Final 4 option
>of Grenn, Coby and Janu)
>that will not succeed.


What I found interesting was that Gregg was talking to Coby and to the camera about him and Jenn and what "they" were going to do. But we never heard Jenn confirm this. Is Gregg taking a little too much for granted when it comes to Jenn? Jenn has also been shown spending alot of time with Katie and seems close to her. Does Jenn want to flip from the group with Katie to a group with Coby who obviously dislikes Katie. I always get suspicious when they show someone (Gregg) talking for a fellow tribemate. I want to hear Jenn state this decision for herself.

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03-17-05, 02:33 PM (EST)
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136. "RE: Episode 5."
Well everyone is up much earlier than myself

Now THAT was an episode wasn't it and am particularly grateful since Koror has definitely been fleshed out some more. Before I either agree with my initial character editing or not, the usually symbolic fare was abundant

The Imagery

Again the rat shots and always at Koror. Many equate the rat to Katie but I go back to the first time we saw rats, yes ratS. I believe there is more than one, however perhaps only one rat is shown at this time to signify one of them. If I could make that guess, it would signify Gregg. Perhaps the other rats could be Jenn, his counterpart and perhaps Katie. This remains to be seen

Again, the lone crab at Ulong. Always I see one. In light, again of Stephenie's other editing surrounding her (catching the flint, pre tribe alliance discussions, now Angie's closing statement) she probably is that crab; scurrying around in every direction but moving, moving, moving.

Nice shot of the shark We still are trying to ascertain who that shark is and who ends up killing it. No snakes that I am aware of but while Koror KILLED the snakes, they usually preceded an event at Ulong. Considering what happened to them last night, no opportunity for Mark Burnett to throw a snake at them.

The rainbow Brings back memories of last season, however Ami was the one who noticed it and indicated about a good day. She ended up getting booted and her tribe done in. I'm not sure what Mark Burnett likes to say with rainbows but if last season was any indication, it isn't positive. Couple that with James and Angie's narration that it was still dark and stormy is a pure description of Ulong.

The Characters

At Ulong, my opinion still has not changed. Stephenie remains in the best position. Ironically, she goes to lengths to not be the leader but I always notice that the situation ends up unfolding where she appears to be the last voice listened to. Bobby Jon saddens me; he truly, as Caryn mentioned is an honorable man and has tried so hard but I just keep going back to his chopping that tree and he can't make it fall I see a very sympathetic reaction to his demise; clearly at Ulong there is a question of who is really aligned with who At this stage, I would suggest that we will have much like last night, votes in order to be saved, period. Ibe has risen a notch in the visibility but naturally because of what happened to him at the challenge. He demonstrated quite a bit of iron at Tribal Council for "calling out" the utter hypocrisy of his impending doom. James his dive in character has continued. It started over the last two weeks and has not changed. What could have been a negative spin on Ibe actually turned to one on James. When this happens, it is not good. Recall Angie's editing turn; all she did was compete hard yet the building on it against the nice tribe of Koror made it appear more negative than it actually was James' tired tirade of pointing fingers has gotten old as well as his "quitters" talk. Angie quit, Ibe quit and so forth. On the other side, Ibe came out editing wise came out better despite his mishaps at the challenge which was obviously evidenced by the majority of Koror giving him immunity.

In addition, Ulong is not built along alliances as much as we are led to think by commentary I don't believe members of Ulong have even come to a cohesive decision about that. We obviously know there will be fallout between Ibe and James setting up a potential showdown; we also consider that Stephenie will stay with James because he is the weakest member but let's not forget Ulong's creed as per Kim: "This tribe doesn't even know who they vote off until they have their pens at Tribal Council" (paraphrashing) Due to my beliefs in the power of editing and the outcome of how the four appear now, James appears to be done as the editing can't really go any further South for him Mark Burnett, with these types of characters have them blazing, James has increasingly been shown to be spiraling downward. If Ibe came out of last night looking bad, I would consider Ibe to go next; this did not happen At Ulong, James should be getting ready to leave

Well, Koror is full of mischief aren't they led by Gregg With the situation unfolding, I look at the "clues" surrounding those people. Gregg, may stir up trouble but he will not succeed ultimately in my opinion. And with this gem:

Jeff P. "Gregg is working against them at the reward challenge was too good to pass up. Gregg may very well have a modicum of success in his plan and more likely than not succeed with Tom especially with Tom's "Willard is keeping a stiff upper lip (regarding being voted out) as most of us will at one time or another." Interesting he says this to Gregg as well.

Last night I had very Rupert feelings with Tom I recall vividly the stellar edit of Rupert with the eventual behind the scenes hummings to get rid of him because he was such a threat setting up those vivid "betrayal" scenarios, etc. This appears to be happening with Tom as well. Caryn and Janu clearly invisible as their characters played no part in what MB was trying to lay out for us. Caryn is not even considered in the long story per Gregg and we were only advised by Gregg and Coby and Janu are close. Considering the fact that we know Coby is perfectly aware of just about everyone's position on this tribe with perhaps the exception of Gregg's plans for/with Janu; again, Coby's edit in my opinion still appears good to me with the exception of the big narrator status he is getting. My other big concern is what he said himself: I am very social, which could bite me in end, I get along with everyone, I don't care, being me; if it costs me so be it"

Yet I am reminded of how Jeff Probst made a point of noting this is a social game The question remains on this but I still have my hopes that Coby can pull a coup as I have had good feelings about his edit early one

Interestingly again Ian is shown again but barely a word about HIS strategies, HIS game playing, HIS alliances He "high fives" his father in crime, he had a a slight dip in character with his rejoicing at the expense of Ulong while Coby, the voice of social reason, wants to take it easy on them

I still like Ian up there but it is nagging at me in that other than Ian's great adventure I haven't seen much in terms of the game (aside from his confessional about observing Ulong) Again though I sense a certain scenario that it will become the mission to get rid of "obvious Tom" and somehow Ian manages to escape somehow. After all, He's a fast bugger

Katie is clearly in either one of the worst positions or one of the best positions. I am reminded of Clay and Twilla. A perfect partner to insure that the other person will get more votes to win. We already know from Coby and Caryn and Willard she is not high on their list. I can't imagine Janu doesn't feel this way as well. Gregg seems to be "tolerating" her. Katie will no doubt be in danger probably every episode that Koror goes to Tribal Council and like Clay and Twilla manage to escape. Women comedians as I already mentioned don't get the same applause as male comedians.

Coby: "If she gets further than me, I'll just puke, puke puke Unfortunately this is one of those comments that could go either way, Coby gets past her or visa versa. But if I recall, unfortunately, a lot of these comments from past shows never bodes well for the person who says it. One can only hope

Barbie and Ken Like suggested, a Rob and Amber revisit? Perhaps for a time but I think they fall short. Gregg's outline was a little clear and specific for my tastes. I would suggest that it wouldn't have been THAT clearly delineated if it were too succeed as planned

Caryn will no doubt come off back burner the next time Koror goes to Tribal Council. Due to the fact that she "appears" to be the main contender for boot status and we saw nothing of her suggests she doesn't go

We know Janu is to be featured next week as well but like some other "sick" stories, there is more than THAT episode to be the boot one. In other words, I note a trend that we see the decline start and THEN they get the boot This suggest that perhaps the BEGINNING of her end story commences next week; we shall see.

But in light of this, I would suggest that while there will be featuring of key issues at Koror, Ulong facing more storms I can, with only the four left, see the editing pointing towards James as that candidate at TC

There was so much more naturally but I will need to watch again obviously (you would suspect with the length of this post, I would be finished )

For the present time, I am still comfortable with the long term people that I felt about at the first episode; no real signficant changes yet for me.

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03-17-05, 09:44 PM (EST)
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142. "RE: Episode 5."
This is my favorite thread, but I hate posting after you, VerucaSalt, because your posts are always so well thought out and thorough. There's little I can add, but I'll try.

It almost seems too obvious, but could Tom be the shark? He was the first person we saw after the shark was shown. Vicious, determined, a seemingly unbeatable opponent. But a lot of us seem to agree he will be beaten. And Ian seems like the obvious choice. He's an animal lover, but he's also the one who killed the snakes (even though he felt bad about it). Perhaps that foreshadows his "slaying" of the shark, which he also is a source of guilt?

Coby intrigues me the most. We've seen too much of him for him to become a pre- or early-jury boot, unless his character dramatically changes in the next few episodes. No one (on his team, at least) has said anything bad about him. We haven't seen much of his interaction with Tom, although they are seated/standing next to each other on occasion. Coby, however, made a point to Gregg that he really wants to get Tom out.

Gregg's plan, obviously, is doomed to fail, and I think Janu will be its downfall. She's being set up for a mercy boot, probably right after all (except Steph, probably) the other Ulong are gone. As with Willard, Coby won't be able to do anything to stop it. He'll just have to go with the powerful alliance and vote out his closest ally.

But Coby's due for a position of power at least once in this game. It's necessary to complete the Coby/Angie story arc. Angie's tribe voted her out begrudgingly, whereas she once was the logical choice to go first for them. Coby still hasn't had his redemption from his "outcast" status. As I said before, it might be proving himself in an individual challenge leading to his early boot. Or perhaps he'll find himself in the strategic position to overthrow the dominant Koror alliance.

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03-21-05, 06:29 AM (EST)
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151. "RE: Episode 5."
Like kingfish said, that was a great turn of a phrase VS The stage is indeed being set for Koror

Ulong is dead in the water, if I may turn a phrase myself.

Steph is the only one who has had the consistent edit from the beginning. Until things begin to change she is going to be safe.

BJ, and his work ethic is a constant theme. You can't help but feel sorry for him as he tries so hard yet there is little success.

James sure has a lot bluster. At first it was entertaining, and now...not so much.

There just isn't much left of this tribe. A tribe that failed to play the game the way EPMB wants it to be playe, as a tribe first and then as individuals. They forgot this important rule.

No matter who makes it from this tribe they are going to serve as only pawns for what is going on at Koror as....

The stage is being set

This started with Gregg who took his first bold steps at playing the game with his own twist. He laid it out in such great detail all the way to the end. He talked of himself and Gregg and yet we still didn't hear anything from Jen who is still very much UTR.

Looks like there is more than one Rat at Koror.

Coby was brought in as Gregg's co-conspirator. Each saying they can bring in their own people to topple the team of Tom, Ian and Katie.

Caryn was not as prominant in this episode making way for the upcoming fleshing out of Janu's character.

Tom was shown as the leader in booting Willard. He spent time with everyone making sure they were all on board.

Not seen in any of this strategy talk was Ian who seems to be just really enjoyining himself. I think you may have something there VS, when you say this could be Ian's great adventure.

Except for her spat with Caryn and her poor showings in challanges Katie has yet to be seen. She is starting to get that edit of someone who makes it to the F3 or F2.

We are getting the build up to when this game really begins for Koror, which is after the merge.

I look for a build up each week until the merge for the battle that is going to happen at Koror.


DRONES

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03-17-05, 12:33 PM (EST)
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134. "RE: Episode 5."
Was Coby voting to immunized Angie it in terms of their story line?

Insider clips showed Coby voted for Steph, not Angie. Ian also voted for Steph.

Tom and Caryn voted Bobby Jon; Gregg voted Angie; Janu, Jenn and Katie voted Ibe.

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03-17-05, 01:37 PM (EST)
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135. "RE: Episode 5."
The intriguing vote is Tom's. I think he didn't vote Stephenie simply because he knew she wasn't in danger. The 3 votes for Ibrehem were by 3 Korror women so it was probably not all based on strategy!!!
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03-17-05, 02:54 PM (EST)
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137. "RE: Episode 5."
I thought the same thing when I read who voted for whom. Those 3 don't strike me as the most strategic of the bunch. REALLY suprised at Tom's vote. Could he just feel sorry for BJ being on such a crappy tribe?
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03-17-05, 03:02 PM (EST)
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138. "RE: Episode 5."
I think Tom probably respects Bobby Jon, although we'll never know if that was the reason. Maybe he hoped making BJ immune would force one of the women out -- as has been noted, the Ulong women have the strength advantage over the Koror women.

But it's kind of weird that none of them said anything when they voted except for Caryn and Coby.


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03-17-05, 08:59 PM (EST)
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141. "RE: Episode 5."
I agree with this sentiment. I think Tom is a straight forward, hard working guy and he voted to save the person he thought was most deserving to stay.

I think the women voted Ibe because they saw him to be the most easily beaten, less of a threat.

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03-17-05, 03:24 PM (EST)
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139. "RE: Episode 5."
maybe we need to start looking at these three (katie, jenn, janu) as an alliance.
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03-17-05, 03:49 PM (EST)
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140. "RE: Episode 5."
I tend to agree. They (katie,jenn,janu) could have a hidden alliance. The fact that they all voted for the same player may indicate that there has been some more discussion between the three of them than we have been shown. I'm also willing to not get too concerned about their lack of airtime, given the dominance of Koror thus far.

Also, a bizarre idea that came to me that combines VS's observations of the rat(s) and James' comment about Ian being a fast bugger....

Rats are known to leave a sinking ship, right? So suppose our hero is slain (Tom voted out).... perhaps the rat will be Ian, the fast bugger who manages to scurry over to the other alliance and last a little longer?

Best aspect of this last episode was that thanks to Jiffy's surprises, we had a chance to see both tribes thinking on the fly, and for the most part, on their own. Very interesting.

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03-18-05, 09:25 AM (EST)
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143. "RE: Episode 5."
LibertyRising, you do just fine my dear

Tom the shark, very interesting. I'm just not sure yet and quite a lot depends on whether the shark gets killed or not doesn't it? If it does, then Tom does have potential in that area but if it is and is killed by Tom himself, again like Rupert, perhaps despite Tom's intentions of laying low, he was too visible and ultimately "killed himself"

memacur, Ian a scurrying rat eh? With the yet to be revealed dyamics in full force at Koror, we still have a way to go before we can know for sure but one never knows if Ian may have a rat quality with some people.

The voting for immunity was interesting and I see there have been opinions on it. While Janu, Katie and Jenn did vote for Ibe, I don't necessarily know if there is a hidden alliance. I tend to believe that there wasn't any opportunity to discuss the issue at hand. I would say psychologically speaking (which is obviously not an exact science) that Ibe's speech more than likely motivated their vote. Women are very verbally in tune and his speech certainly had me impressed. I would consider, more likely than not, it may have been a question more of their being impressed by his demeanor and candor and felt that it would be unfair (women are very big on that ) that he be penalized for ONE situation.

As far as the other votes, it was a bit surprising that Coby extended an olive branch to Stephenie (as opposed to Angie) and Tom extended it to Bobby (over Steph)in light of the first episode . The reasons (as already stated by people) may be very simple. Caryn was extremely complimentary of Bobby and it would suggest that Bobby made a huge impression during the short time they were all together. I agree that Tom probably gave Bobby a nod of respect. What we need to do is keep this information (much like the pick em that we did) on the backburner to see what happens when they are together at merge (if there are any Ulongs left that is )

Insofar as lack of airtime, agreed that lack is mainly because Koror is successful. HOWEVER, the fact that Caryn (who has been featured at Koror) was completely invisible does indicate to me that Koror is safe this week. Caryn was highlighted earlier to set up a scenario that will be occurring (along with Katie) and Caryn was MAINLY the one to look bad. This last episode KATIE's role is being established and not in a positive way so we now have two stories that have been shown to us yet JANU is the one featured (and clearly not seen at all by us) This signifies to me that the stage is set but the play hasn't started

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03-18-05, 04:05 PM (EST)
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144. "RE: Episode 5."
Tom as the shark... Very interesting idea. Will have to keep that one in mind. However, the comment that struck me was their banter about their relationship at tribal council. A "Father/Son" thing, with Ian impishly piping up with "I'm the father." I mentioned a couple weeks back that theirs was a classic mentor/apprentice relationship. The thing with those kind of relationships, is that it seems inevitable that the mentor will one day be overshadowed by his apprentice. Add that in with Tom's quote about how 'almost all of us' will eventually have to go, and how they should accept this, and I clearly see a set up for Tom eventually stepping aside - whether by his choice or circumstances - for Ian to take over. Remember he said he wanted to be known as the father figure. A father's greatest wish is to see their children succeed.
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03-18-05, 04:21 PM (EST)
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145. "RE: Episode 5."
This signifies to me that the stage is set but the play hasn't started

Nicely put, VS! Add in the reveal of Gregg's counter-alliance plot (which includes the about-to-be-featured Janu), and this is a perfect description of where we are with Koror. The pieces are in place, now we wait to see what happens...


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146. "RE: Episode 5."
VS, great job as always. Each episode I think I pull out maybe five good nuggets of info, you, of course, nail them, better, plus provide another dozen that I missed.

I completely agree that nothing that is going on at Koror right now indicates anything but the continued Ulonging of the other tribe for the next episode or even two. James progressively negative edit appears to be a death knell.

Only BJ and Stephanie appear to have any chance of advancing.

Poor BJ, he tries, he tries, he fails, and he fails. He does, however, have an editing relationship with Tom; his voiced respect for Tom, and Tom’s returned respect in voting for him in immunity. This could be inferred as the end of his story, or the beginning of a story arc that keeps him around along enough to once again face Tom at a later date. I still can’t believe this is the same guy from the pre-show interviews.

Stephanie, IMHO, is still getting a great, consistent edit. I don’t know how she could win considering her current situation, but purely based on editing, she would have to be considered a favorite. Her early alliance with Tom and others could be significant, or not. Her battles with Jenn lead me to believe that she makes the merge and she will potentially face off against Jenn. Irony leads me to believe this is when she goes, but Jenn’s edit is so UTR, that Stephanie could prevail.

MB finally unveiled some strategy from Koror. Unfortunately, as VS stated earlier, the Greg/Coby pact was laid out so well, it just can’t happen. While I have often question the theory “Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed”, I do believe that “Alliances Revealed Often Do Not Succeed” Additionally I am still hung up on the Jeff/Kim romance at Ulong. For something that never really panned out, they spent a lot of film discussing the potential negative impact. My gut tells me that it doesn’t work out for Gregg/Jen either. Janu could quit, or Coby could just go against his best interest, and side with Tom/Ian/Katie. Stephanie could also be a factor after the merge, which could change everything.

The Alliance also reveals the Caryn goes next at Koror, when the situation arises. Again, this may be a little too obvious. Katie is the obvious foe, but Janu’s future weakness, combined with no real editing insinuates the initiation of a short story line. I tend to agree that Caryn and Katie are both safe in the short term. Also Gregg’s quote that “Janu is key” infers that the whole strategy could blow up before it has a chance to unfold.

I agree VS, Coby is the only one on Koror receiving any strategy edit at all. After JP’s early quote, “this is a social game” and Coby’s later response, “I am very social”, I thought, this was a slam-dunk winner’s quote. Of course he continued with, “which could bite me in end, I get along with everyone, I don't care, being me; if it costs me so be it". This insinuates more of a final four or final five edit than a winner, however, one quote does not a season make.

I completely agree that Katie is the most obvious as a final two partner. She has been given a slight negative edit, which should grow as the season progresses.

Their have some excellent posts on the Tom/Ian relationship, and I don’t have anything to add. Tom is not getting a winners edit, he is being editing as too much of a target, and should be voted off sometime in the future. Ian’s edit is more interesting. He has a rock star edit, but with absolutely no strategy. VS could be correct; this could be “Ian’s great adventure”. If Ian’s edit does not begin to explore strategy, he may not be the obvious winner we foresee.

However, I still believe that MB integrates the Nash Equilibrium when editing the show. In a multi-leader tribe (Coby, Gregg, Tom and possibly Katie and Caryn), followers succeed. Ian’s edit seems to be progressing as a second fiddle to Tom and possibly Katie. As VS stated “I sense a certain scenario that it will become the mission to get rid of "obvious Tom" and somehow Ian manages to escape somehow.” I agree. It is possible that Ian could win without ever developing a Machiavellian strategy if he takes the followers role. Ethan and Tina both won in a similar role. However, this also means that Janu and Jen could be in play. Both are followers. I would be stunned if either one won, but, hey, Vecepia won from a M-Tribe. It could happen, although I have no idea how.

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03-20-05, 01:21 PM (EST)
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148. "RE: Episode 5."
Her battles with Jenn lead me to believe that she makes the merge and she will potentially face off against Jenn. Irony leads me to believe this is when she goes, but Jenn’s edit is so UTR, that Stephanie could prevail.

Agreed. If EPMB is to complete a nice, neat storyline with Jenn and Steph, then the two women must come together to compete at some later point in the game. The way Jenn's edit starts shaping up just before that point will tell us whether Jenn is finally going to overcome Steph in some head-to-head situation, or whether Steph will finally lose to Jenn in an all-important individual situation despite having dominated Jenn in all the team match-ups. If spoilers are to be believed and Steph is earlier to the jury than Jenn, I would say let's look out for Jenn's editing to show an increasing confidence and strength on her part, preparing us for what would be a surprise upset of Steph based on the outcomes of their past meetings.

I agree with you about Ian. He's getting the "NiceGuy" edit where fortune seems to smile on him without him needing to expend any effort to bring it his way. Of course, fortune smiles on him because he's capable and nice; people respond favourably to niceness and capability, and people responding favourably is all "fortune" is. It feels strongly like an Ethan edit to me at the moment, rather than a Tina edit; my prevailing sense of Tina is that she was much more manipulative than I believe Ian is capable of.

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03-20-05, 03:34 PM (EST)
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149. "RE: Steph, Jenn, Ian"
I think Steph's continued theme is "I'm not used to losing this much", "I can't handle losing". To this effect, this could mean that either she wins the game, or she goes on an immunity run when the game becomes individual before her arc is finally over and she gets voted out. Either way, I think she'll get her winning satisfaction sometime, if it's only temporary.

As far as her and Jenn go, there is some irony, as Steph has bested her in 2 individual challenges. Therefore, Steph is not used to "losing" to her, so if Jenn was instrumental in ousting Steph it would be a redemption of HER previous failures against Steph. Combine that with Tom's second day "alliance" with Steph, and the non-editing spoilers that suggest a) Steph outlasts at least 2 Korors after the merge, and b) Katie and Jenn do NOT get along with her after the merge, I can see the following scenario: Tom tries to bring her into the fold when they merge with a decimated Ulong (possibly just her)... she either wins immunity or joins with the dominant alliance for an episode or two, thus making her feel like a winner for the first time. Then, when she begins to get confident in her place in the tribe, Jenn (and possibly Katie) go behind Tom's back or overrule him to vote her out, thus giving Jenn redemption in their personal struggle, and adding further irony to Steph's situation by taking her out just when she feels she's become safe and a winner. That seems to make sense, given her edit so far.

As far as Ian goes, I see the "Ethan" edit to Tom's "Lex", but at the same time, I don't think it's fair to say he's been edited as a follower, as both Tom and Katie have been shown on camera calling him a leader. It's hard to say where the editing puts him.

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03-21-05, 12:21 PM (EST)
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152. "RE: Episode 5."
Tom is not getting a winners edit, he is being editing as too much of a target, and should be voted off sometime in the future.

I disagree. Not all editing interpretations can be based on past Survivors, because each game is different. Usually a character like Tom would probably just miss getting to the final two, but...

Tom is being pointed out as a target by people who at this point have no power, and probably never will. This game is so one-sided I have a feeling that a cigar is just a cigar this time. One tribe entirely self-destructs due to lack of leadership and organization, while the other tribe goes all the way and its most respected member wins. What little counterplotting there is will have no effect in stopping the juggernaut.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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03-20-05, 12:21 PM (EST)
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147. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing - Palau"
This weekend I sat and rewatched all the eps. I mainly was watching for things from the Koror members. We can see alot of the early alliances did start from the first ep. While Tom is talking to Steph about an alliance with Ian, they show Ian and Katie working and laughing together. And we know Tom, Ian and Katie are close now. Then they show Gregg, Coby and Caryn discussing to boot Jonathon. And then Coby picks Caryn over Angie in the pick'em game. And now Coby and Gregg are conspiring about an alliance. And you can see in every ep how close Gregg and Jenn are even when it isn't mentioned yet.

But it was last week's ep that really had me rewatching part of the show over and over again. Does Tom know about Gregg and Coby's plan? They showed Gregg and Coby talking. Then Coby is in the trees talking to the camera about it. Immediately after the shot of Coby they show Tom walking away from the trees down to Gregg. Tom looks at Gregg and asks if they are OK and still together on the plan. Gregg says yes, but Tom doesn't really look like he entirely believes Gregg. Did Tom overhear Coby?

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03-20-05, 07:34 PM (EST)
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150. "idle chatter"
I just gotta say that was a well turned phrase VS, (paraphrased, that for Koror the stage is set and the play is yet to begin), and a very appropriate way to view the remainder of the season. As we all have seen in the past, ACT II is usually post-merge dynamics dominated by the larger pre-merge team who often coasts for a few episodes while they pick off the other tribe and work on end game strategies, or for some, just how to get rid of those they dislike.

The implication is that now MB has an unusual editing luxury of extra time to devote to Koror tribal and character stories. He has planted the seeds of possible alliances, strategies, outcomes, and misdirections and now will get to develop Act II before ACT 1 is really over. He may have three(?) weeks till the merge in which he will have to deal with the RC, IC, and Boots, but the boots are starting to be perfunctory, and it looks like he is developing a lively set of Koror plots.

So what does this mean? Maybe not much, just that we might take the next two/three weeks as more of a unit, a mini-play, and try to analyze the story based on the information from this period. I know that anyone worth his/her edit analysis SALT (hows that for a plug?) is looking at the long term implications as well as short term snapshots, but it seems to me that this particular period may be worthy of special attention. So we will see.

The stories for the next few episodes seems to be, just relying on the editing analyses in this forum, that Koror as a tribe is headed for doom and destruction, a dismal failure attributed by MB (via his story telling) to James's failure of leadership (to me, his edit has been screaming this, from his statements about the team democracy to his blaming IB last week) as well as to a unfortunate luck of the draw on the second day. They didn't get either Tom or Ian, and really who, on the second day, would have guessed that either of these two could be so valuable?

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03-23-05, 07:31 AM (EST)
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153. "RE: idle chatter"
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-05 AT 11:55 AM (EST)

Excellent observations everyone!! I watched the episode again with these thoughts in mind; it is amazing how one can view the show a second time with different perspectives.

I still at this moment like the long term results for Stephenie, Coby, Ian and Tom Not too far behind would appear to Gregg, Katie and Jenn Those whose edit appears troublesome and perhaps designed that way would be Caryn, Bobby Jon and now Janu I'm confused on Ibe's edit since it is peaking and VERY quickly almost as if they are rushing it. I almost felt this way somewhat about Gregg's plan completely layed out to us. James edit has already dwindled so I don't expect much from him any longer

I hope more of Koror is evolving to further the dynamics we see taking place. I would expect with Willard leaving and Janu featured feeling hopeless the editors will concentrate some more on them. IF we see a heavy portion of the show on Koror and it isn't positive (especially if they win BOTH challenges) this *could* be an indicator they visit Tribal Council next week.

I'm going to keep a close eye out for this shark again and we know the following episode involves same. Since the shark has been heavily featured, whoever the force is surrounding the shark may be key here. We *dabbled* that it may be Tom and dependent upon the outcome could symbolize his outcome.

What I found interesting again in last week's show was what I believed to be very heavy manipulation with regard to Koror and their people. You may recall Coby's suggestion about being nice then Ian appearing to be insensitive with a shot of Caryn looking somewhat disapproving. In looking at those scenes, it appeared to be heavily edited which infers that (for whatever reason at this time) Ian was "made" to look somewhat negative. Now we have been waiting for some change in his editing. I'm still concerned by the lack of strategy talk from Ian as by now, if he were to be at the end, there would be more there. This "dip" if you will is definitely meaningful; for what reason is still not sure.

I also went back to look at Jeff's comments and this is what he said about Ian

JP: Ian is 6'8. It's the tallest Survivor cast we've ever had. Ian in terms of putting him on the show, he was on when he walked in the door in my mind. A super likeable guy. Exudes genuine-ness he's happy to be alive, wants to play and have fun. Really a likeable guy, humble, a kid. If he lasts long enough he'll probably make mistakes because of judgment. Just like I was talking about with Caryn. When I look at young people I'm thinking: Are they conf. enough to make it. They don't have the life experience. You see it with Eliza, Jenna, go down the list of young people....

We do know that sometimes his comments should be taken with a grain of salt; since I am concerned about his edit in terms of playing the game I will remind myself that this interview could pose a clue to a potential problem for Ian

Coby of course was made to look in a high light with his sensitivity and again, while I am pleased by his characterization and how it may progress, his words at Tribal Council concern me.

I will also be keeping a close eye on Tom since he is the person that the Koror's strategizing (the little we have so far) is built around him. Caryn, Gregg, Coby, Willard all have mentioned him (with Ian as a second) in terms of power to take down or to be negative about. Like Ian, I am curious to hear from Tom himself. He expresses at TC his goal was to sit back but was essentially forced to step up. I want to hear more privately from him.

BR I agree with your thoughts on Tom. I don't necessarily believe the heavy editing he is getting is necessarily horrific. I had mentioned it is essentially a crapshoot dependent upon one of two things. To repeat myself (sorry ) Mark Burnett sometimes takes what HE LEARNS from a prior season and changes. When Vecepia's edit caused a chorus of negativity from viewers, his next season had Brian almost narrating his strategy. Last season there were quite a few comments about Chris's edit as the show progressed. I read quite a few comments that Chris's behavior and comments were not to their liking. Could Mark Burnett be learning another lesson and literally giving us a hero with all the trimmings? Perhaps. Then again, Tom is also a classic editing example of the person that the audience loves who (when they meet their end) caused a ruckus of emotion and hopes for "payback"

Since MB does indeed choose to surprise us with his character portrayals, it is not an exact science. This is where I try to look closer at the person, what they are saying and what people are saying about them including symbolism surrounding them.

We still need to wait a bit to see more from Koror; I suspect with the dwindling amounts of Ulong, we will be guaranteed this very soon.

Edited to add Jeff's interview which I finally located

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03-23-05, 12:34 PM (EST)
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154. "RE: idle chatter"
Interesting!!
Re: EP 5, Gregg's analysis caught my attention. It was something like: JENN AND I ARE PERCEIVED AS JUST THE CUTE COUPLE. I THINK WE'RE THINKING A HELL-OF-A-LOT MORE THAN THEM. Maybe this was editors' attempt to have viewers believe that Tom and Ian are not strategizing.
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03-26-05, 07:03 AM (EST)
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156. "RE: idle chatter"
To repeat myself
>(sorry ) Mark Burnett sometimes
>takes what HE LEARNS from
>a prior season and changes.


One thing that strikes me in terms of MB's motivation for editing is that he has never had the fan-favorite/hero win. Ethan would be the closest, but many Africa-fans were rooting for Lex. He can only tell the story he is given with the winner that he does not determine. MB, in my opinion, would love to give America a "Rupert win" in the actual game. MB can't manipulate the winner, so he's not been able to edit a hero and then have him/her actually win it...until now.

I believe that Tom's fulfilling that role. He will be edited as America's favorite: a combination of Lex (edited with Gregg and Ian as his Tom/Ethan) and Rupert (edited as the fearless leader of the dominating tribe). We also have so much of the story surrounding his relationship with the others; even Stephanie and BJ's edits have Tom written in them. (Will Steph be reunited with Tom? Will BJ beat Tom?...) He has the Rupert-esque story of the internal threats being more severe than those from the opposing tribe. Gregg and Coby (and eventually Katie, I guess) will be "playing roles" similar to Burton/Jon -- only this time, Rupert finds out in time...I mean...Tom finds out in time.

MB is running out of seasons for a hero-wins edit. If Tom is the winner, MB will shove it down our throats. That, I believe, is what we're getting.

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03-25-05, 10:50 PM (EST)
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155. "Episode 6"
I was ony able to watch the second half of this episode and it was a real yawner.

Ulong had two players in James Ibe who are barely even trying. James messing with his skirt while Koror worked hard to make an extra few knots. Ibe was trying to look like he was doing something by standing in the water.

I'm only going to give just perfunctory attention to Ulong on from here on out. The impact of who/whom ever manages to make it to merge is going to be merely as a pawn for one of the alliances of Koror. If Ibe, I highly doubt he even makes it or BJ make it to merge they won't even have an impact on the game as they would be voted out immediately due to the "potential" for one of them to go on an immunity run. Steph would be used as a pawn, and could become very valuable.

Koror, for what I saw of them and I only saw the second half of the show, was barely visable. The best part were the highlights for Ep7, where the shark is finally caught. Ladies and Gentlemen, there had been a lot of build up to this event so we need to pay close attention to how this is edited. The second thing to watch closely is if Tom or Ian happen to pick up some trouble with Gregg and Jenn.

Rember, that there is some concern in how Ian is being edited. VS, began to notice a couple of eps ago, and I agree that Ian is not necessarily getting a winners edit. Meanwhile we saw Tom arrange and then confirm Willards boot. Coby is playing the game as well, just behind the scenes. Caryn is still only good for her negative comments. Janu is beginning to struggle and is having to be carried by her tribe. Katie is Katie and Jen is as invisible as Amber was in Africa. Gregg jumped out of the shadows rather abruptly and was not heard from last ep.

Tom, and Cody are both safe for a while. Behind them, I'd put these people in this order: Ian, Gregg, Katie, Jen, Caryn, Janu.
Merge or no merge Ibe, BJ and Steph are not long for this game. I do believe that Steph has the best chance of going the farthest of those 3.

DRONES

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03-26-05, 08:33 AM (EST)
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157. "RE: Episode 6"
Well one thing that I noticed was how Katie was perceived by members of her tribe when she was shown making knotted necklaces for everyone....Koror was saying to themselves, look the only thing she contributes to our surviving are these knotted necklaces, and that's worthless....and then at the IC, it was Katie who was knoting away at the Ulong trunk, which led to their winning the challenge....a positive spin for Katie, surviving!


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03-26-05, 09:41 AM (EST)
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158. "RE: Episode 6"
FP. This becomes really ironic to me when you look at what happened to James the Ulong knot expert after he tied his "imposssible" navy knot.This may be the beginning of a change in editing for Katie leading to her lasting longer than the way she was being protrayed earlier.RedBeard
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03-26-05, 11:56 AM (EST)
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159. "RE: Episode 6"
Well I think she will last but not because of a positive edit...it will stay negative imho

The most interesting comment about Katie was in Caryn's confessional...she said (paraphrasing)

"Katie entertains us with jokes, etc.(after the conf. they imm. went to her sad sad puppet show) She needs to work, work harder. What is her role in this tribe? "

Her role is the perfect F2 partner...imo

My only other comment about the show was the look on Coby's face when he learned Angie was gone...it was weird sort of "oh thank god" but "darn, I could have used her" look all at the same time..he is def. being shown as playing the strategic part of this game the most by Burnett..


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03-28-05, 04:14 PM (EST)
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160. "RE: Episode 6"
or emydi, perhaps Katie is a great pupper master

Believe it or not, I didn't have much to contribute after this episode. The editing is fairly consistent in terms of the characters with a slight shift here and there

If anything, we now know the answer to the question posed before this show with reference to Tom. We discussed the animal imagery and whether or not Tom kills the shark could infer what happens to him. We know he is the center of this victory which helps his standing.

Before Koror, I turn to Ulong (poor poor Ulong ) There is absolutely no reason for me to believe in terms of editing that Stephenie and Bobby Jon won’t be the two remaining Ulongs. Mark Burnett has invested way too much in both of them for Ibe to outlast either.

Recall Ibe’s non existent editing with a sudden soaring over the last two episodes. Those types of editing shakeup (if you will) are suspicious and usually mean they are literally getting their “15 minutes of fame” We saw instances such as this with previous survivor contestants and they suddenly emerged only to be booted shortly thereafter. What about Janu though you ask? The difference is subtle but there IS a difference and the main one is that Janu is PART of someone else’s strategy. Janu’s emergence may solely be indicative of Gregg’s story whereas Ibe does not have ties to anyone else’s strategy.

Stephenie’s arc is surrounded by editing that reflects her to be Ulong’s sole member:

The crab always features Stephenie
Stephenie the only one of Ulong engaged in pre tribe alliance discussions
Kim to Stephenie “Kick all the guys off”
Angie to Stephenie “Rock the ladies”
Jeff throwing the flintin the earlier challenge; James reaching for same and it going straight to Stephenie
Stephenie’s confessionals constantly discuss losing and her disgust about it whereas Bobby’s is more reflective aka “what will be will be”
The discussion of Steph/BJ about going to the end together
And of course Steph: “I just want to win one immunity" challenge”

From an editing standpoint it would appear that Ibe would be the next to go and thereafter BJ and Stephenie.

I still believe thatStephenie’s role will play a part in the Koror dynamics. However, unlike Chris, I have doubts that she can infiltrate the Koror tribe to the extent that Chris did and the biggest reason is how much she is shown to be a threat physically.

I read again Jeff’s commentary about the contestants:

Jeff about Stephenie:”......if she can get to individual part of game, she ‘s tough. There’s a lot of guys in this game who would be afraid to go up against her in a challenge.”

THAT no doubt will cause a problem for Stephenie on the surface. However, I do believe that she could help upset a apple cart or two and with MB’s investment in her, I don’t think she will be the first one going when she meets up with Koror though technically she should be considering she will be the only Ulong left.

Koror Characters

Ian’s Great Adventure As DRONES indicated, I expressed concern over Ian’s edit. I had liked him greatly for a potential winner but indicated that if we don’t see some sense of game playing from him shortly, Ian’s stay on the island is more/less being shown to us as his adventure. These storylines can go quite far but with absolutely no showing of strategy, alliances, vulnerability, suspicion, it doesn’t bode well ultimately.

We again saw it last episode. He is having a wonderful time, they have full stomachs and it is paradise. Yet, why have we not heard about his thoughts on his own status, his relationships, his thoughts on threats, etc. It is has essentially been thrown in our faces that he is a sidekick having fun. I had quoted earlier what Jeff had said about Ian ultimately may make a mistake in judgement. It appears that Ian may be able to kill a couple of snakes but what about the shark or a rat perhaps?

Tom the shark hunter. I won’t go into the symbolism again but his killing the shark bodes well for Tom. Again, Tom has a Rupertesque edit but the difference may be trust and self esteem. Rupert was an every day man who was edited as a hero, Tom is a hero being edited as everybody’s man. Subtle difference but it is there. We KNOW Tom will discuss the relationship of Gregg and Jen; thereby setting up a situation where Tom is wary of his surroundings and doesn’t blindly trust; we also saw a hint of subtle arrogance, if you will, with reference to his discussion about Willard and last week’s talk with Janu. Mind you, this may not appear arrogant to everyone but there was a “shift” with him that I did see reaction from posters. In actuality this is a positive turn on Tom’s edit. Tom was in danger of being boxed into a one dimensional corner as Ian continues to be, sleight of hand in editing bodes well especially in comparison to Ian since we discussed that Ian and Tom sat the best at Koror.

Tom will no doubt be a thorn to some people’s sides. Again, Tom is always the main focus of threatening power though Ian is stated as well but Ian always sounds like an afterthought. Caryn, Gregg and Willard have all mentioned Tom.

Jeff about Tom in his pre show discussions: “If he does last for awhile he’s the kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say: “You know what, why not him”

Katiehas continued in the talk amongst some Survivors. The issue of Caryn and Katie has not been dropped and Mark Burnett is making sure of it. There seems to be too much emphasis on that relationship for it not to pay off in some fashion. Again, however, Caryn was not even important enough to be discussed by Gregg yet Katie is safely insulated by two men who are carrying her tribe. In addition, we have yet to hear a negative word about Katie from Jenn who is attached to Gregg. In terms of numbers, Caryn is on the short end of the stick and will probably lose this battle because numbers DO matter. Oh the irony of Caryn commenting on Katie’s braiding only to show the rope knotting at the immunity challenge. Perhaps Katie is not as invaluable

I found Katie’s comment about Janu being more of a drama queen than her was interesting. I suspected from the contestant descriptions that Janu may be too much drama and I sat watching thinking it appeared I was wrong. Throw a way comment perhaps but there may be some drama coming our way and that may be signal the end of Janu. There is only so much show girl she can discard

Jenn sits quietly again in the background. Again we only hear her reiterate a challenge description. Jenn may do pretty well since we have seen editing like hers before. Darrah was all but non existent in her alliance or so we thought but she managed to get far ahead in the food chain even surpassing her partners. In light of the fact that Gregg is doing the talking for the both of them and we already discussed that Gregg’s plan was too carefully laid out to us to succeed in its entirety, it is suggestive then that Jenn may squeak through and her partner may get tossed before she does but then, like Darrah go when it is her time. I don’t foresee much else happening in that regard but characters like Jenn(without any showing of their own plotting and scheming) can do quite well by sheer virtue of all the other drama going on around them. Plus there is a trend in male/female pairings where the woman usually outlasts the man (Rob/Amber, Sandra/Rupert, Roger/Elisabeth, Tina/Colby, Gregg/Colleen) Obviously, the relationships are different but there is a trend that I have noticed.

Gregg as we established is to play a big part in the Koror dynamics and most likely will fail in his plan. Since Janu’s story is being established that she is sickly, Gregg will no doubt let “us” know his alternatives which is probably where Caryn will come in.

Coby. I do love Coby’s character and when I watched him up until last show I had, as you know, high hopes for him. The last shown sunk my optimism. There is too much of Coby for our entertainment. This has always been a danger sign to me. Examples of this are Greg, Jeff Varner, Rob Mariano (S4) and so forth. They are the ones who we are laughing with, enjoying their enjoyment over their plans. They are wonderful people to focus on because they truly dive right into the game they are playing. Coby had originally made it known he could hurt himself and he may do so. Coby is friends with everyone but is not part of anything strong and Coby is not a weak player, either mentally or physically. These players are what I call the “not so subtle strategists” They are usually the players that are made obvious to us they are going to dive right in with strategy and challenges and if it is obvious to us, it certainly is obvious to everyone else.

Things to watch for will be Ian continuing on his great adventure, more shifts in Tom’s editing in terms of playing the game, Caryn’s role in her tribe, Gregg’s plan bearing out, Stephenie’s role in possibly unseating some Koror members, Janu’s illness.

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-05, 10:50 PM (EST)
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161. "RE: Episode 6"
Katie, is being given a very interesting edit. She is playing the game, but it is not being shown in a positive light. We've seen her tift with Caryn, which is far from over, and now her comments about Janu the drama queen. Up until the last episode she was being shown as pretty much worthless in challanges. This ep, if not for her tying the knots, Koror is at TC. With that edit we now see her as a threat.

Along the same lines as Katie, we are seeing Coby being given a mostly negative edit. We are seeing his thoughts, but they are without action. He seems content to follow along with Gregg's plan but we don't know his long term, or short term plan is for that matter. We hear his negative comments about Katie's performance in challanges. When ever he isn't competing in a challange he generally does this as well. He himself has performed well in challenges. We have yet to hear any of his tribemates thoughts on him, even those who would appear to be in his alliance.

Janu, as VS pointed out was seen as being ill and really struggling. Whenever we see a player suffering the way Janu is we are not sad to see them go.

Caryn is still being given the most negative edit of anybody. Complaining all the time with snarky comments and a bad attitude, even though she is on the winningest tribe of all time.

Tom's edit has shifted to that of a player. He sees what's going on around him. He did an excellent job of trying to lift Janu's spirits. He's sees what could be going on with Gregg and Jenn.

Like you said VS, it's still Ian's great adventure thus far.

Jenn is still being hidden ala Amber. She is being protected by Gregg. I'm gladd you pointed out what had happened to some of the other male female partnerships or whatever they are.

Gregg's plan has you to be put into to play, and that will tell his tale. His story lies in if his plan succeeds or fails. I think we know how it will turn out though, don't we

Ibe is going next. He really isn't worth much effort at this point, and that is just as well because he really doesn't give much effort.

BJ is fighting the good fight.

Steph will finally win an immunity, but it will be for herself as she is the last member of her tribe. She is being given an edit as someone who will not be the first one sent home post merge.

Look for Tom, Katie, and Coby as long term. Like VS said we should pay close attention to Ian's edit as it will tell his story if he stays in this game to the end. Caryn and Janu are being given early post merge boot edits. Gregg and Jenn are somewhere in the middle as is Steph.

DRONES

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-05, 08:56 PM (EST)
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162. "RE: Episode 6"
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-05 AT 08:59 PM (EST)

I thought I would throw this out, if only because it is a pretty slow week editing wise, but there have been a few quotes over the last few weeks that suggests that Janu, specifically, and the Koror women in general, may have some potential, despite, what must be considered, to this date, fairly ho-hum edits. I am really reaching here, so feel free to tear this to pieces.

MB always tosses out some interesting quotes that come to fruition in either an actual or ironical nature. This week, three caught my eye. The first was during Tom’s comforting of Janu. He said, and I paraphrase, “You are going to make the Jury and it is possible that you will be in the final two and we will be voting for or against you”. This could easily set up for a future betrayal, which is probably more appropriate, but MB edits for the general viewer, not the spoilers, and at this time does the general viewer actually think Janu has a chance at all? Tom could easily stab her in the back, but would anyone really be surprised? This combined with Greg’s quote, “Janu is the key”, gives her two potentially, “Winning Quotes”. Arguably, no other player has any “Winning Quotes” nearly as obvious. Additionally, once the merge happens (or the remaining members of Ulong are absorbed into Korer) is there any reason to kick Janu off. She is no threat in challenges and she has only been portrayed as a strategic player in terms of Greg. I know, more reason she should go. But initially JP said. “Here’s the thing that impressed me about her (Janu): She graduated college after 20 years. That is impressive to me. She didn’t quit. It took forever, but she did it.”

The second was Stephanie’s Pringles trivia comment regarding past winners. This could obviously play out either way but MB tends to use a sense of ironic drama and when someone says something that just doesn’t make long-term sense in terms of the current editing, it tends to pay off more than not. So far the obvious potential winners, as edited towards the general public, as narrators, have been, Tom, Ian, and Coby. Once again, would anyone really be surprise if one of those three won. This year, a women winner, would be fairly surprising. But how could a woman win? Katie is getting a pretty decent final two edit, but does anyone believe that she could beat Tom or Ian (or Coby or Greg for that matter). If a woman is to win she must go to the final two against another woman. Stephanie also remains in play, but I am not sure how this could play out.

Finally Katie’s “drama queen” quote could also set up a potential future clash with Janu. This, combined, with the general women’s alliance scenario’s that has subtly played out over the last few episodes, gives me cause. Kim’s quote to Stephanie regarding a women’s alliance, combined with the three Koror women voting together for Ib. This, of course, is a pretty serious reach.

Finally, in Koror, all four men have been revealed as potential leaders. In this situation, the women, as followers, should have a better chance to win.

Once again there is more editing to indicate that this will not happen than it will. I think the board has made some great points that MB learns from each season, and will change the editing each year based on the current season’s winner and the public’s reaction to the previous winner. This year could easily be just a straight forward edit, with Tom versus Katie facing of in the final two, and a Tom win, but I though I would throw out something different as I think the next two episodes will pretty much go as spoiled.

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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-05, 02:24 AM (EST)
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163. "BJ's edit"
It seems to me that BJ has been given the edit of someone trying to prove that he's a Man's Man. (Tarzan anyone?)

BJ seems to see Tom as his main competition for the title Man's Man.

I think when Tom get's his shark this week, the bar will have been set so high that BJ won't be able to compete anymore with Tom.

This will be the end of BJ's story arc, and we will see him voted out at Ulongs TC as the remainder of his tribe turns on him.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-05, 12:49 PM (EST)
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164. "RE: BJ's edit"
WLR, I enjoy hearing from you; please continue to do so as I always have said that other observations help me since sometimes I get "colored" by those I tend to like and/or dislike. Objectivity sometimes gets tossed out the window despite good intentions

I did find Tom's discussion with Janu interesting as well. I, on the other hand took it more in terms of Tom's shift in editing. He has been portrayed very wonderful with no real game playing that struck me forcefully which concerned me. I found his conversation with Janu more help for me in terms of his editing rather than what he SAID to her. This conversation actually made me more optimistic in Tom's longevity as this conversation revealed to me his game playing; very smooth (actually reminded me a bit of Brian )

Also, Janu's reaction to Tom's discussion was important to me in establishing her thoughts on Tom as a player which was noticeably absent to me. All we saw and heard regarding Tom were negative comments by Caryn (which actually reflected more about Caryn than Tom) and commentary from Gregg regarding his plan (which reflects more about Gregg and what happens to him than Tom actually)

In essence, I found that exchange very interesting as you did but more in terms of Tom being fleshed out as opposed to what actually was said. But I would suggest if the words DID have some meaning perhaps Janu being on the jury has something for us to enjoy with regard to her vote on the final two.

Yes, I did note the trivia questions I agree there may be something to that as well. We've often discussed remarks made for a reason of just poof pieces and this is one of them. Placed on purpose to "clue" us in on a woman prevailing or simply a comment to throw out in absence of anything other than fun.

mavsfan, very intriguing idea regarding the fish. I have found Bobby's story a little different with regard to Tom in that there is not so much a competition of these men but that they are the same type of man if but for two things. Bobby is on the tribe that couldn't and Tom is on the tribe that can. Also, Bobby 's edit almost makes me feel that Mark Burnett is showing Bobby as the man he WILL be in Tom.

I recall Bobby stating: "Tom is a man among men" (Could be an interesting winner indication?) More importantly I see the parallels of the two and Bobby's story almost being that of aspiring to be like Tom. Alas, Bobby gets the small fish and so forth. I suppose I find too much humility about Bobby to assume his attempting to be the man among men but rather he aspires to be like that kind of man.

This will be a great episode to watch as I do feel that the editing shifts we have begun to see at Koror are going to develop more. I won't go into again what we should be looking for as it is already stated

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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-05, 11:13 PM (EST)
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165. "RE: BJ's edit"
I don't think Bobby Jon's edit is a "next bootee" edit at all. Yeah, they have all 3 had TV time spikes, but there aren't enough Ulongs left to avoid that. If anybody left on Ulong is getting a "next bootee" edit, it looks like Ibrehem more than the other 2. He's been a nothing-happening kind of guy for the most part, and he's getting a nothing-happening kind of edit. He seems like a nice guy, but he's as dull as a bad sermon in church, and Marko just hasn't got a lot to work with in editing him. If Ulong takes the expected IC loss, I'm sure he's the one to go.
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knuckles487 178 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-05, 04:02 AM (EST)
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166. "RE: BJ's edit"
Perhaps there is something else the editing experts here can look at to see if there might be some meaning in it.

On the CBS site, next to each players bio are some short videos of confessionals and statements the players have made. Not all of them, just very particular ones.

I think it's the middle one <http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor10/survivors/bio/bobby_jon.shtml> titled "All by myself" that BJ talks about how afraid he is of sharks.

In this one <http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor10/survivors/bio/stephanie.shtml> Stephanie makes a remark about keeping the men around because they are great with the fire.

Could it be possible they showed us Stephanies "fire" remark as a prelude to the fire building challenge presumably next week?

Could it also be possible that the remarks about BJ being afraid of sharks could have another meaning since he has not been around any sharks? Maybe the same week a shark is killed, he is booted?

Since certain players such as Tom and Ian have only their introductory videos on their page, while some others have three or more, could the presence of particular clips be a clue to future events, or am I just taking up space here?

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steemerman 14 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-05, 12:12 PM (EST)
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167. "RE: BJ's edit"
This wasn't a direct reply to this, but I feel that a possible vote in the Immunity would be that Steph votes for
Bobby Jon because He is the strongest she already tried this earlier plus She talks to Ibe about this and He tells Her that He'll vote this way, Ibe thinks that Him and Bobby Jon are vote out Steph because of their alliance and then Bobby Jon votes for Ibe because of His and Steph's alliance. Then there is a three way tie and they have to break the tie. and then thay vote out Ibe.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-05, 11:33 AM (EST)
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168. "Episode 7"
As hard as I try to keep my observations quick and concise, ultimately I am like a bad novel but as forehead said, this thread would not truly be this thread if my posts were not excruciatingly long and I appreciate those who bear with me with my meandering. Naturally I hope that what everyone else saw is posted.

Special to emydi and FP ; you are both, as always very sweet and yes, applejack, taken completely as a compliment

The animal imagery has definitely been prevalent this season. We still have lots of shots of water life, rats and snakes. You will note that the lone crab is gone.

To give Ulong a little nod before we get to the Koror

Bobby Jon Again, I truly embraced his character and feel he is being given a special edit. As I mentioned in my last post, I believe there is a strong parallel with him and Tom and it all comes back to Tom being “a man among men” Bobby aspires to that and we see him trying over and over. Again, however, all his comments wax philosophy and in comparison to Stephenie, his story appears more of those journeys we see of people on this show as opposed to “the game” Note the difference between his talks and Stephenie....

BJ “You do what you got to do”
Steph “I’m pissed; it’s not my time”
BJ “I don’t deserve it any more than he does”
Steph”I think we deserve it”
BJ”I’m scared of sharks, but we got a fish
Steph”I’m not a loser, for them to get everything is kind of tough”
BJ”I won’t know until last second what I’m putting down on that paper”
Steph “I’m going to vote for strategy.....”

We have been meant to see these types of words coming from their mouths. Clearly their paths are extremely different. Also, obviously Stephenie needs to meet up with some of Koror for the prior editing to be fulfilled and we already knew this.

Bobby Jon” Maybe I’m the curse that causes us to lose” Interesting remark which makes me question how unlucky he truly is; he is always shown trying so hard but somehow falls short (in camp and at challenges).

And so we know when Stephenie caught the flint for Ulong.......fire is life and ultimately against a very moralistic and very unlucky Bobby and let’s note we had snakes involving Ulong (no crab shown) I believe we’ve established Steph’s lone crab story playing out and in light of Koror teeming with snakes; the next segment should unfold

The Characters of Koror - Dress Rehearsal

While obviously with Koror winning again, we are waiting for the complete destruction of once was Ulong; considering again “merger” was brought up yet again with Jeff and with that many references to same, it isn’t happening. Mark Burnett obviously is just going with the natural course of events and possibly warning future participants of two key mantras; v