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"One tribe at the beginning"
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 11:47 AM (EST)
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"One tribe at the beginning"
I haven't seen it noted elsewhere, but on TES they said the castaways live together as one tribe. It showed Jeff Probst leading them along a beach -- I'm not sure if that was a pregame sequence or part of the opening.


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: One tribe at the beginning Loree 01-13-05 1
   RE: One tribe at the beginning pmspml5 01-13-05 2
       RE: One tribe at the beginning volsfan 01-13-05 5
       RE: One tribe at the beginning Brownroach 01-13-05 6
           RE: One tribe at the beginning smokedog 01-13-05 7
               RE: One tribe at the beginning Brownroach 01-13-05 10
                   RE: One tribe at the beginning Capn2patch 01-13-05 11
                   RE: One tribe at the beginning volsfan 01-13-05 12
                       RE: One tribe at the beginning Brownroach 01-13-05 14
 RE: One tribe at the beginning PhoenixMons 01-13-05 3
 Clothing: Pearl Island-esque? FesterFan1 01-13-05 4
   RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque? PhoenixMons 01-13-05 8
   RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque? Brownroach 01-13-05 9
       RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque? pmspml5 01-13-05 13
           RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque? volsfan 01-13-05 15
               RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque? Wheezy 01-13-05 16
 RE: One tribe at the beginning SurvivorBlows 01-13-05 17
   RE: One tribe at the beginning Brownroach 01-13-05 18
       RE: One tribe at the beginning pmspml5 01-13-05 19
           Here's a possibility TeamJoisey 01-14-05 20
 RE: One tribe at the beginning cuon10 01-14-05 21
 The first 2 boots FesterFan1 01-14-05 22
   RE: The first 2 boots michel 01-14-05 23
   RE: The first 2 boots PepeLePew13 01-14-05 24
       RE: The first 2 boots Brownroach 01-14-05 25
           RE: The first 2 boots PepeLePew13 01-14-05 26
               RE: The first 2 boots Brownroach 01-14-05 27
               Who does the choosing? FesterFan1 01-14-05 28
                   RE: Who does the choosing? munson 01-14-05 29
                   RE: Who does the choosing? KObrien_fan 01-14-05 30
                       RE: Who does the choosing? Jerrethan 01-14-05 32
                       RE: Who does the choosing? FesterFan1 01-14-05 34
                   Purple rocks? Brownroach 01-18-05 63
 RE: One tribe at the beginning Wheezy 01-14-05 31
   RE: One tribe at the beginning volsfan 01-14-05 33
   RE: One tribe at the beginning FesterFan1 01-14-05 35
       RE: One tribe at the beginning Wheezy 01-15-05 36
           RE: One tribe at the beginning PepeLePew13 01-15-05 37
               RE: One tribe at the beginning Flowerpower 01-15-05 38
               RE: One tribe at the beginning Loquatrix 01-17-05 51
       To what event does Jeff lead them? Krautboy 01-16-05 39
           RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... volsfan 01-16-05 40
               RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... KLicK 01-16-05 41
                   Ashlee, Jenny, and their overshirts FesterFan1 01-17-05 46
               RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... Corvis 01-17-05 47
                   RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... volsfan 01-17-05 50
                       Behind the scenes... Krautboy 01-17-05 52
                           RE: Behind the scenes... volsfan 01-17-05 53
                               RE: Behind the scenes... Krautboy 01-17-05 54
                               RE: Behind the scenes... VolcanicGlass 01-18-05 56
                                   RE: Behind the scenes... volsfan 01-18-05 58
                       RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... Corvis 01-17-05 55
                           RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... volsfan 01-18-05 57
                               RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... Corvis 01-18-05 59
                                   RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... volsfan 01-18-05 60
                                       RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... Corvis 01-18-05 61
                                           RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... volsfan 01-18-05 62
           RE: To what event does Jeff lead th... biancaxxx 01-17-05 42
 ritual television 01-17-05 43
   RE: ritual Krautboy 01-17-05 44
       RE: ritual redbeard103152 01-17-05 49
   All bets are off FesterFan1 01-17-05 45
       RE: All bets are off television 01-17-05 48
       Each person picks the next one...? Brownroach 01-19-05 65
           RE: Each person picks the next one.... aethelstan 01-19-05 66
               RE: Each person picks the next one.... Brownroach 01-19-05 67
           RE: Each person picks the next one.... FesterFan1 01-19-05 68
               RE: Each person picks the next one.... Brownroach 01-19-05 69
 RE: One tribe at the beginning AMAZON 01-19-05 64

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 11:53 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
CHANGE OF GAME: Coming off of one of the lamest Survivor seasons ever, CBS has some big twists in store for the upcoming 10th edition. Debuting Feb. 17, Survivor: Palau will feature 20 contestants, three of whom will be booted at the end of the first episode. "They're given very little instruction about what to do, and some of them are genuinely lost," exec producer Mark Burnett tells Variety. "Two people don't make it to the first challenge. That's how tough it is. It's very emotional." The cast includes a 23-year-old dolphin trainer from Florida, a 55-year-old English teacher and a 39-year-old Vegas showgirl — whose name, regrettably, is not Cristal Connors.

Info taken from TV GUIDE.com

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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 11:57 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
If two people dont make it to the first challenge then I'd say they quit. Also, they are definatley dumped since several of the shots show them in complete clothes.


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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:11 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
As opposed to incomplete clothes? I am sorry but I just spit water all over the place. What do you mean by complete clothes?

I am still laughing!

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:17 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
LAST EDITED ON 01-13-05 AT 12:18 PM (EST)

The copy is a bit contradictory:

"Palau will feature 20 contestants, three of whom will be booted at the end of the first episode."

then "Two people don't make it to the first challenge..."

Maybe the first blurb means booted BY the end of the first episode, and the two people who don't make it to the challenge leave before the end of the show?

Or maybe the two people are incapable of competing in the challenge but don't quit, per se, and then get booted at the end of the episode?


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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:20 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
>"Two people don't make it
>to the first challenge..."

EPM is quoted saying this on Snewser's site. So either they quit or don't get drafted.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:28 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
My guess, then, is that there will be an early TC, before any challenge, at which two people are voted out (hence they "don't make it to the first challenge"). Then there is an IC and a second tribal council at the end of the Ep, at which the third person gets voted out.


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01-13-05, 12:31 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
EPM is quoted saying this on Snewser's site. So either they quit or don't get drafted.

I like the idea about a draft. The numbers support it. One squad leader from each tribe drafts 8 members, leaving 2 survivors out and 1 TC at the end of the episode.

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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:40 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
I like your idea BR because I have been wondering ever since it was posted as to how two of them don't make the challenge. Every time the tribes leave for a challenge they are always together. How in the heck would two of them get lost from the entire tribe?

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:47 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
The draft idea sounds reasonable, too. I'm not sure MB would switch back to a two-tribe scenario in the first three days, but he might.


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PhoenixMons 4696 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:06 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
I still think that my original idea going along with Palau cultural history would work...maybe slightly different, but similar.

Say there is one tribe in the beginning. The tribemates will each start out with one person who is their 'counterpart' (if you will). I think this might be the same little quote i posted before, but I can't remember as it was probably a month ago or so...

Palau's social organization is highly complex and competitive. The race for money, prestige and power, the main thrust of which used to be for political power within a clan or village, was the focus from which most events occurred, such as sports competitions and wars.

Palauan villages were, and still are, organized around 10 clans reckoned matrilineally. A council of chiefs from the 10 ranking clans governed the village, and a parallel council of their female counterparts held a significant advisory role in the control and division of land and money.

So could we have a 'council' of sorts of men and a 'council' of women, all still being one tribe (at least at the outset) - with some sort of 2-person clan set-up? Maybe they spend the first episode as one tribe and then break off into women vs. men once the first 'clan' is eliminated after the first 'council meeting'. It could be possible that they only use this 'clan' thing for the initial challenge that will remove two players almost immediately...it seems that it would be too hard to have these people linked together in any sort of permanent way if they are on opposing tribes (logistics for TV votes also wouldn't work...can't have a one-person clan so would they both go home when one was voted off...see - doesn't make a whole lot of sense).

I don't know...I just can't shake the issue since this is the first time they've ever had 20 (seems too much to be coincidence) and that goes right along with Palaun culture.


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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:10 PM (EST)
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4. "Clothing: Pearl Island-esque?"
There were shots of Wanda in a dress, Janu in a frilly top, and others in clothing that didn't look to outdoorsy. However, some of the men appeared to be wearing swimming trunks, and a lot of the women appeared to have more than one outfit.

I'm curious if they were marooned in the clothes they're wearing, but were allowed to grab some items quickly before the marooning.

Fester

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01-13-05, 12:21 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque?"
or some of them actually watch Survivor *gasp* and were smart enough to layer their clothes with the possibility of a Pearl Islands-esque marooning.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:21 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-13-05 AT 12:21 PM (EST)

I don't remember who was wearing what when, but some if not all of the interviews were probably done pre-game. Could that have accounted for the different clothes? (Though Janu didn't have an interview...)


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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:47 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque?"
One other thing - as noted in another thread - the flage is green but there are shots of a blue buff. Why a green flag - then a blue buff.

The voice over from SEEbs says that "3 castaways will be going home before this night is over"

That with 2 people dont make it to the first challenge

some people do get lost and I think it is just too much for them -

I say 2 people quit

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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 12:58 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque?"
I have a hard time with them getting lost. The tribe/tribes always leave together for the challenges. I haven't look at any of the maps, is challenge beach on another island? If so, then the tribe leaves two people on the camp island.

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Wheezy 9153 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 01:08 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Clothing: Pearl Island-esque?"

They could get lost looking for water or food, and don't make it back in time to go to the challenge.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 01:28 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
A couple of things:

1) I know The Early Show segment and web story state that the twenty contestants start the game as "one tribe," but it might be worth noting that CBS's official press release makes no such claim, stating only that "the castaways will begin as one group of 20, with three being sent home in the first episode."

Nor does the Variety story mention the word "tribe" anywhere -- I'm beginning to thing this might just be sloppy writing on the part of the Early Show scriptwriters.

2) Burnett's Variety quote makes it quite clear that two people don't even make it to the first challenge -- which its hard to envision being an individual immunity challenge with eighteen different competitors.

I've incorporated EXACTLY what had been stated by CBS's publicity folks and Burnett into the below story that we published this morning -- right now, as far as I'm concerned, I'm leaning toward any "three people are booted at the end of the episode" or "compete as one tribe" talk to be sloppy reporting until I hear otherwise from either CBS PR or an interview with Burnett, Jiffy, etc.

http://www.realitytvworld.com/index/articles/story.php?s=3182

-SB

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 02:52 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
It would explain why a green flag is seen at camp in one shot, but Kimberly is wearing a blue buff in another. They may very well get divided into two tribes before the first challenge then.



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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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01-13-05, 03:21 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
I'm not sure if they do end up one tribe or not. I do think however, that MB wants the castaways to believe they are one tribe. I am uncomfortable with the green flag with no tribe name - and then the blue buffs - the two just dont jive

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01-14-05, 01:40 AM (EST)
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20. "Here's a possibility"

There are two tribes... but only one camp.

Hence the blue buff (and a yet unseen buff), and the green flag with no tribal name.

That would be a twist full of drama. Exist in the same camp with the other tribe, after reward challenges and bitter immunity challenges. Make alliances with folks outside your tribe, and then go to challenges determined to knock them out.


These reality show contestants need a reality check!

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01-14-05, 10:08 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
Fresh survivor ideas for a new season. Great idea. How bad can it be? Nothing was less interesting than Survivor Thailand and this sounds like it has promise to be one of the best yet.
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01-14-05, 11:26 AM (EST)
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22. "The first 2 boots"
LAST EDITED ON 01-14-05 AT 03:58 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 01-14-05 AT 01:43 PM (EST)

In trying to determine the method of elimination for the first 2 bootees, I thought it would be helpful to break down the fact from the speculation from the remaining questions. Below, I've tried to do that.

What we know

1. 3 players will “go home” in the first episode (per CBS promo)

2. This is "by design" (per Mark Burnett, Daily Variety article), which means that we have no unexpected “quitters” in E1 that might throw off the rest of the game. All 3 were meant to leave in the first 3 days of filming.

3. 2 players “do not make it to the first challenge” (per Mark Burnett, Daily Variety article). This mean that only 18 players will be competing in the first IC, whether that be individual, 2 teams of 9, or 3 teams of 6.

4. While there is a green, nameless tribal flag, we have visual evidence of a blue tribal buff (per vidcap of Kimberly), which is consistent with the buff spoilers pre-Early Show segment.

5. All 20 Survivors make it to camp (per vidcaps containing all 20 in and around camp), so the first elimination isn't a "Last 2 to arrive" scenario.

6. The first 2 are eliminated some time between when they all arrive on the beach and the first challenge begins.


What seems likely (at least to me)

1. The first 2 bootees are not voted out at a traditional TC. No one (or no tribe) will have immunity at that point.

2. The presence of the blue buff probably means that there will be at least 2 tribes competing for tribal immunity at the first challenge.

3. Tribal divisions (whether they be just for the first IC and subsequent TC or more permanent) will occur prior to departure to the first challenge (again, per Kimberly vidcap which looks to be pre-IC).

4. I think we can rule out individual competition as the method of determining the first 2 boots. Even an unconventional, as yet unnamed challenge would, in MB’s mind, still be a challenge. We know the first 2 boots don’t make it that far.

5. The 3rd boot in E1 will go home the standard route. IC losers go to TC and vote someone out.

6. The visual confirmation of the blue tribal buff would seem to validate the other colors, of which we have at least 2 more.

What we don’t know

1. We know the first 2 bootees don’t compete in the first IC. Do they get eliminated from the game before the tribes arrive at the IC? While saying they “don’t make it to the first challenge” implies they don’t even make the trip, all Burnett’s language states for certain is that they don’t compete in the challenge.

2. Do the tribal selection and the first boots happen at the same meeting, or is there some time between the 2 events?

3. What is the method of departure for the first 2 boots? Will they be voted out by their new tribes in some sort of ad-hoc TC? Will they be eliminated in the tribal selection process itself (i.e. last 2 not picked are automatically booted)? Or will it be some other method?

4. (Per Brownroach) Are the first 2 boots eliminated at the same time, and are they eliminated by the same method?


Fester

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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01-14-05, 03:24 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: The first 2 boots"
I'm thinking that after the first day or so, they make 3 teams of 6 to compete in the challenge, that would automatically leave 2 of them out.
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01-14-05, 03:45 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: The first 2 boots"
Would they actually consider something like a pick-em scenario (like when Jake and Jan picked out tribes to start S5 Thailand) and then when they get to the last two, Jiffy says "Guess what? These two are gonzo."

What a way to keep the Survivors on their toes... but it just seems so out of left field for them to consider that approach.

Thanks for laying it out, Fester, it really helps to narrow down the options for the first episode and give us something to watch for in the next month when ad promos come up in advance of the premiere episode.



Scratch and sniff

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01-14-05, 04:06 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: The first 2 boots"
Would they actually consider something like a pick-em scenario (like when Jake and Jan picked out tribes to start S5 Thailand) and then when they get to the last two, Jiffy says "Guess what? These two are gonzo."

You might say that was teased when Sarge and Scout picked new tribes in Vanuatu and Lisa was the last one left. She even asked if she was going home. Maybe this time MB does it for real.

This is a really good list of all the things to consider, Fester.


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01-14-05, 05:01 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: The first 2 boots"
>Would they actually consider something like
>a pick-em scenario (like when
>Jake and Jan picked out
>tribes to start S5 Thailand)
>and then when they get
>to the last two, Jiffy
>says "Guess what? These two
>are gonzo."

>
>You might say that was teased
>when Sarge and Scout picked
>new tribes in Vanuatu and
>Lisa was the last one
>left. She even asked
>if she was going home.
> Maybe this time MB
>does it for real.

And if they're going to do this, Ashlee and Angie makes sense as the last two picks -- the big-busted (and empty-headed?) girl who seems to be flirting/joking around with Bobby Jon and maybe other guys ... and the "tattooed freak" who's wearing a black T-shirt with knives on it who scares the older folks if they turn out to be the ones doing the picking.

Japanese culture is all about honouring the elders, isn't it? We've got two clear-cut elders in Willard and Wanda.



Scratch and sniff

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-14-05, 05:09 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: The first 2 boots"
Although, whenever MB's done this in the past, he always makes them pick by alternating gender. So the last two left would be a woman and a man if he continues that procedure.

(I liked your idea that Ashlee and Angie were pasted into the cast photo, but VolcanicGlass' blow-ups convinced me that they aren't, Ashlee's strange position notwithstanding.)


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01-14-05, 05:17 PM (EST)
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28. "Who does the choosing?"
Out of a sense of fairness (and MB's cruel sense of irony), I don't think they'd have predetermined tribal selectors. In Vanuatu they had the tribes choose "chiefs".

If 2 players are going home as a result of the tribal selection, I'd think that MB would have some sort of chief election first.

Here's a potential scenario:
Jeff greets the tribe on the morning of Day 3 and says "You've had 2 days to get to know everyone. Now it's time to see how well you've gotten to know them. You'll be voting for the people you want to choose the tribes. Write the names of the 2 people you'd like to see choose the tribes. The top 2 vote-getters will do the tribal selection. A word of warning, though. Choose very carefully. Your fate in this game could be decided by this vote."

The reason I don't think it's a tribal elder thing is twofold. First, I don't think MB would give anyone a free pass in a boot scenario. And second, I don't think he'd want the fate of the 2 boots to be tied to predetermined people. It makes for more drama this way.

The tribal selectors are elected. Jeff then tells the selectors that they will alternate picks, choosing whomever they want, until all but 2 Survivors remain. Those last 2 will be booted from the game.

The more I think about this, the cooler it might be. Can you imagine the bargaining that will start to happen when the available pool gets down to 6, 5, 4, and 3?

Fester

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29. "RE: Who does the choosing?"
Out of a sense of fairness (and MB's cruel sense of irony), I don't think they'd have predetermined tribal selectors. In Vanuatu they had the tribes choose "chiefs".

I agree, Fester. No contestant has ever left the game by chance. Three quit, the others have either been voted out or lost the Final IC. Even PROD Paschal had his fate in his own hands. All he had to do was change his vote. No one gets a free pass.


The tribal selectors are elected. Jeff then tells the selectors that they will alternate picks, choosing whomever they want, until all but 2 Survivors remain. Those last 2 will
be booted from the game.

The more I think about this, the cooler it might be. Can you imagine the bargaining that will start to happen when the available pool gets down to 6, 5, 4, and 3?

I like this approach as well.

One of the criticisms of the game during the past few iterations is that the strong (read hot bodies) are voted out too early while the physically, and often strategically inferior, players remain in the game becuase they aren't threats.

This scenario allows the tribes to eliminate the old/weak/small/slow/etc., anyone who couldn't pull their weight physically. And think Scout when you read that.

Although, under similiar circumstances in Van., I think she would have survived easily, tribal chief role and all.

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30. "RE: Who does the choosing?"
That would certainly fit the "it's very emotional" quote. But if the two who don't make it to the first challenge is by design, would MB really want to risk a gender imbalance right away?


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32. "RE: Who does the choosing?"
That's why I think we'll have 3 tribes of 6, like in All-Stars. Just think about it: probably 1 man and 1 woman will leave immediately (it's very unlikely to get rid of 2 men or 2 women), so then we'll have 9 men + 9 women = 18 castaways. The only way to avoid an unfair gender imbalance is by forming 3 tribes, 3 boys and 3 girls per tribe. I just don't see how else this new twist could work.
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34. "RE: Who does the choosing?"
Bearing in mind that this is pure speculation at this point, it could still work and be as gender-balanced as possible, given 9-player tribes. It would just take an extra step or two. For instance, the criteria of the voting could be "vote for one man and one woman, but not yourself". Then the top male and top female vote-getters become your tribal selectors. Then the model just follows the Thailand pick-em.

The man starts by picking a woman and vice versa. Eventually you're left with one man and one woman not chosen. And you'd have one tribe with 5 men and 4 women and one tribe with 5 women and 4 men. Considering MB's started 2 seasons with tribes completely segregated by gender, I don't imagine he'd have too hard a time with this arrangement.

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63. "Purple rocks?"
Since there's been no mention yet of a two-hour premiere I think we'll have to assume that it is only hour as TES said. With that time limit, a) there most likely will be only one TC at the end of the episode, and b) the first two eliminations will probably occur at the same time.

So now I'm also favoring a scenario like what Fester outlines. I think voting for "chiefs" would be too long a process, however, and it might be hard to reach a consensus so early in the game. So I'd lean toward the tribe-pickers being chosen totally by chance -- something along the lines of the purple rock, where everyone has to select an item and two of the items are different. Again, this wouldn't give anyone a free pass initially.

They might not even be told that the last two will be out of the game until they get down to the last two. Although, as KOFan said, the phrase "very emotional" does hint at a lot of angst along the way -- people may be pleading their cases toward the end.


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31. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
LAST EDITED ON 01-14-05 AT 07:34 PM (EST)

A question, and forgive me if I missed seeing the answer elsewhere. Is there a reason why everyone is assuming that they will split into two (or three) tribes on the first show?

We are told by TES they live together as one tribe. Did they say 'they start together' or did they imply an end to the one tribe thing? It's not impossible that they stay all together for several days, is it?

I'm not convinced that they are two tribes at the first tribal council.


Then. I keep coming back to:

Survivor: Palau will feature 20 contestants, three of whom will be booted at the end of the first episode. "They're given very little instruction about what to do, and some of them are genuinely lost," exec producer Mark Burnett tells Variety. "Two people don't make it to the first challenge. That's how tough it is. It's very emotional."

This quote above says to me: some survivors are genuinely lost, and two of them don't make it to the first challenge. How many is 'some'? I've always thought 'some' was more than 2. An entire boat load of them?

It also says that three survivors will be booted at the end of the first episode. I don't yet want to make the assumption that two of them are the ones who didn't make it to the first challenge. (another note--MB uses the word 'first' challenge, which generally implies there are more than one. Of course, they could just be reward and immunity, but those aren't the only options. Likely the first challenge is a reward challenge, correct? So that wouldn't automatically get the missing survivors booted).

I think there are two concepts here that seem to go together, but might not--just because they were strung together by the journalist, doesn't mean squat. So the two concepts need to be seperated, or at least discussed seperately to appease the wheeze. Mostly? Because one is journalistic hearsay and one is a quote.

concept 1 comes from TVGuide's reporter: 3 survivors booted at the end of episode 1.

concept 2 is a direct MB quote: Some are genuinely lost, and 2 don't make it to the first challenge.

MB doesn't directly say anything about when the three survivors are booted. That fact was gathered in the interview, and could be a mistake-- 'at the end' instead of 'by the end'. Or it could be right on, and all three go at once in one big single tribal council with all 20 people there.


---> again, tell me if I missed something, and I will apologies a hundred times.

*edited for errant tags

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33. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
I think the concept of two tribes has to do with the blue buff in one vid cap and the green "tribal" sign shown in the previews.
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35. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
Is there a reason why everyone is assuming that they will split into two (or three) tribes on the first show?

The primary reason for me is that a 20 or 18-person TC is just too unwieldy, creates too much opportunity for a tie, and would be a flat-out drain on everyone involved. The TCs take several hours in real time to complete as it is. Can you imagine how long they would take with a cast of 18 or 20?

Beyond that, we have visual confirmation of a blue buff and a green (nameless) tribal flag. The assumption I'm making is that they team up at least for immunity and the subsequent TC, if not more permanently.

An individual IC with 18 or 20 players is also too cumbersome to run and have it make for good TV. I just can't bring myself to believe that we're dealing with a purely individual game right out of the chute like this. But yeah, I'm making some assumptions here.

We are told by TES they live together as one tribe. Did they say 'they start together' or did they imply an end to the one tribe thing? It's not impossible that they stay all together for several days, is it?

They only said they "start the game" as one tribe of 20. That could last anywhere from an afternoon to several days. I believe they'll be teamed up before they go to the first IC (based on the vidcap of Kimberly wearing the blue buff, which looks to be in camp, pre-IC.)

I'm not convinced that they are two tribes at the first tribal council.

I'm really hoping they are. A TC that looks like a reunion show would have to be severely edited and presents the risks I pointed out above.

Survivor: Palau will feature 20 contestants, three of whom will be booted at the end of the first episode. "They're given very little instruction about what to do, and some of them are genuinely lost," exec producer Mark Burnett tells Variety. "Two people don't make it to the first challenge. That's how tough it is. It's very emotional."

This quote above says to me: some survivors are genuinely lost, and two of them don't make it to the first challenge. How many is 'some'? I've always thought 'some' was more than 2. An entire boat load of them?

It also says that three survivors will be booted at the end of the first episode.

The CBS promo language is "by the end of the night, 3 will be going home". There isn't any official language from CBS or MB that I've seen that says the 3 go at the end of the episode. I think sloppy journalism is at work here, because...

I don't yet want to make the assumption that two of them are the ones who didn't make it to the first challenge.

That wouldn't be much of an assumption. The direct quote from MB is "2 don't make it to the first challenge". That's pretty cut and dried. 2 are booted before the first IC, and 1 goes post-IC (presumably in the traditional fashion of being voted out at in an episode-ending TC).

another note--MB uses the word 'first' challenge, which generally implies there are more than one.

Well, I think "first" here means first of the season, not the episode. There could be more than one challenge in the first episode, but I don't think that one can assume that based on MB's quote here.

I think there are two concepts here that seem to go together, but might not--just because they were strung together by the journalist, doesn't mean squat.

concept 1 comes from TVGuide's reporter: 3 survivors booted at the end of episode 1.

Bad preposition usage here. 3 go home by the end of E1, 2 before the first challenge, and 1 after.


concept 2 is a direct MB quote: Some are genuinely lost, and 2 don't make it to the first challenge.

To my eyes, the usage of the word "lost" here is a psychological reference, not a physical one. It may also be a dig at the ABC show of the same name. What he's getting at here is that he's stayed one step ahead of the cast yet again. They assumed certain things, like the size of the cast, that there would be more direction from Probst & Co., that they would be safe for at least 3 days, etc. And he's pulled the wool over their eyes yet again. He's tooting his own horn at how clever he is, but he's not going to give up how those first 2 are eliminated.

We know they make the beach. All 20 are present in vidcaps on the beach. We know they're gone before the IC because of his quote. So somewhere between landfall and the beginning of the IC is where they get the axe.


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36. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
He wise, the Fester.

Okay, so MB's quote "Two don't make it to the first challenge" means they get booted? Or did CBS state this as well?

(Sorry if I'm coming off like a chowderhead here. I was thinking of the possibility of two of them going off to find water and getting lost, then not making it to the challenge...which would also be emotional, since the others would be torn at what to do, and worried).

---> thanks festah!

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37. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
The only thing I've seen is the quote you mentioned, "Two don't make it to the first challenge" and nothing about HOW they don't make it.

The word I'm thinking of is "eliminated." I agree with Fester that it's simply too unwieldy to have a massive TC to vote out 2 or 3, and also that MB fully intended to have three get booted from the game in the first episode. So I think it makes more sense that there's some method that eliminates two people -- maybe by being the last two picked, or the last to arrive at a checkpoint, or get thrown into a pit of snakes, etc. -- rather than two people simply getting lost doing something like going to get water and not making it back in time to the challenge.



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38. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
there's some method that eliminates two people -- ...the last to arrive at a checkpoint

yes, it will be Survivor a la The Amazing Race!


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51. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
MB fully intended to have three get booted from the game in the first episode

Agree, Pepe. I reckon this would be a good Big Twist to start the game off and give viewers the sense that this is going to be a season of surprises -- renewing our excitement about the game after All-Stars (a recap episode) and Vanuata (a good season, but one without much in the way of significant MB surprises).

Of course, the show won't be much more surprising than usual (especially not to us lot) but they'll want to reinforce the idea that it will be, thus ensuring a good Sweeps showing. Having three contestants fall by the wayside in the first episode is the perfect beginning and clearly something planned for by MB, rather than something happening serendipitously with the cast. Hence the weird number of them -- two of them are completely disposable in whatever first selection challenge is to take place, and 18 is the "real" number of players.

Then of course the third person for the chop in Ep1 is the real boot at the first Tribal Council. Sounds like a great way to start the season!

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39. "To what event does Jeff lead them?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-16-05 AT 01:46 PM (EST)

Fester, great work on your summary! Nice piece of analytical work; very sound logic and reasoning.

So, building on your conclusion:

"We know they make the beach. All 20 are present in vidcaps on the beach. We know they're gone before the IC because of his quote. So somewhere between landfall and the beginning of the IC is where they get the axe."

We have seen the vidcaps of Jeff leading the survivors down the beach. Jeff only appears for important events, so we can assume that something important happens when the arrive at their destination.

Since Jeff is leading them, we can assume that no one gets lost on their way to the event. Since Jeff appears we can conclude that tree mail was not involved.

We have been told that "two don't make it to the first challenge", so Jeff is not taking them to the first challenge (unless two are eliminated by some selection method just prior to the start of the challenge.)

Since Jeff is taking them somewhere away from their camp, the event must require some sort of props or structure. (a simple picking of tribes and handing out buffs could take place at their camp)

Since it's daytime when Jeff leads them down the beach, the two eliminated before the challenge are probably not eliminated by a TC vote. (MB would want to unveil the new TC in it's full grandeur at night)

MB has been quoted stating the elimination of three survivors in the first episode is "by design"...so, Jeff is probably taking them to some kind of event that will result in the elimination of two of the contestants (who would be whisked away by speed boat waiting on the beach), and perhaps includes the formation or selection of tribes (Koror and Ulame?).


The "blue buff" Kimberly is shown wearing confirms that tribes will be formed during EP1. The fact that she is seen wearing one suggests she's not one of the first two eliminated.

Since EP1 usually only has one Challenge included (either day2 or day3)it's possible that it could happen either after the elimination event or the next day.

So, while it's not clear exactly where or what the event is to which Jeff is leading the survivors, there's a good chance that only 18 contestants will remain when it's over...


Krautboy

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40. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-16-05 AT 08:13 PM (EST)

Great thoughts KB! The thing that I keep thinking of is why is Jiffy walking them down the beach?

In the past, most of the challenges have consisted of the tribes arriving to a Jiffy standing still in a specified location. Usually even during explaining the challenge he is shown to be standing still. The cameras concentrate on the contestants coming into the challenge beach. I am not sold on the pics of Jiffy walking them somewhere is on challenge beach.

This could be at camp and like you said he could be taking them to a structure where a picking of tribes or something like that takes place.

However, could the pics of Jiffy walking them down the beach come from a behind the scenes type thing. Like from some of the preview shows we get? If so, this may not be part of the first show.

Also, I know it is very unusual to get caps from future shows but could the pic of Kimberly in the blue buff be from a future show? I know during one of the seasons we actually got the second or third boot because they showed a clip preseason of a tribe going to TC.

Lots of thoughts...what do you guys think?

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41. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
I think they are walking away from camp.

Here's a shot of what I believe is Jeff's arrival. I think the girl in the black top (sorry, don't have names/faces yet) is pointing to Jeff's boat (Look! It's Jeff! Yippee!)


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46. "Ashlee, Jenny, and their overshirts"
LAST EDITED ON 01-17-05 AT 10:37 AM (EST)

It may be worth noting here that this is a second overshirt Ashlee has on for modesty. Initially (and I'm guessing initially, because in the cap she stills seems like she's drying off from the boat trip in) she's wearing a gray tank top (presumably James's) to cover up. Now she has a black top on. Any thoughts on who this originally belonged to?

Also, in the marching shots with Probst, Jenny is wearing what appears to be a man's long-sleeve shirt. We know James has a gray tank top, Willard has a dark blue/black polo shirt, Tom has an FDNY t-shirt, Coby has a pink shirt, and Ian has an olive short-sleeve button-front shirt. So perhaps this shirt belongs to Jeff, Jonathan, Gregg, Bobby, or Ibrehim? I suppose it could be James's too, since he likely had something on over the tank top.

Anyway, it might be a clue to early bonds.

Fester
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47. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
volsfan,

The footage we're seeing of Jeff walking them somewhere will not necessarily be on the show. This stuff comes from a pre-packaged media kit that is distributed to the media outlets. It includes lots of stuff that will not be on the actual show. So in the first episode, we may just see Jeff standing somewhere with the Survivors waiting for him to explain the twist.

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50. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
Very rarely does CBS release behind the scene footage. Usually the behind the scenes comes from media day which lots of times that takes place 2-3 days into the game. I don't recall ever having anything shown to us in a preview from CBS that we don't see in the show.

Can anyone else remember when CBS actually released behind the scene footage?

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52. "Behind the scenes..."
Volsfan:

While I'm not sure the vidcaps of Jeff leading the survivors down the beach is "behind the scenes" footage or not, here's an example of "behind the scenes" footage from a recent promo:


Notice the microphone boom and camera filming S10 contestants in front of the Green banner...apparently on Day 1.


Krautboy

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53. "RE: Behind the scenes..."
KB, THANKS!

I guess the question I should be asking is did all these vidcaps come from CBS? I see there is an "E" in the corner of this pick so I am assuming it was part of the special on that network.

The vidcaps posted in the promo thresds came from CBS right? In those caps is the scene of Jiffy. So, I guess I should be asking where the caps came from. Does that make sense?

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54. "RE: Behind the scenes..."
Vols: Good question, I don't recall if past "behind the scenes" shots came from CBS affiliates or not. The "E" shots were vidcaped by Survivor Phoenix and are also posted at SFever.

The shots of Jeff leading the survivors down the beach are from the Early Show Promo and Extra, both CBS network shows...most of the promos we've seen so far have included shots from the walk down the beach, but not all have included the shots where Jeff is seen in the frame.


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56. "RE: Behind the scenes..."
Only E! had exclusive footage, as TV Guide and MTV had in previous seasons.

The walk with Jeff scene was part of the media kit available to all media outlets.

What is typically included in the media kit:
- B-roll of location
- B-roll of island "action"
- Interviews with all contestants
- Talking points (for example, this season all the previews mentioned the "South Pacific paradise of Palau")

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58. "RE: Behind the scenes..."
Have you seen the footage that is in the media kit?
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55. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
Volsfan,

Every single season with the possible exception of number one, CBS sendt a media package with footage from the first few days to the affiliates. In it, there are loads of images that never appear in the episodes. Last season, as well as one other season, I got some of this footage from my local affiliate. So it's not just footage shot by the news shows that have stuff that's not from the episodes.

I don't know for certain that this is walk with Jeff is not going to be on the show, but from my experience looking at this stuff, that's how it strikes me. Take it as you will.

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57. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
I know about the media footage that is sent to the affiliates. I understand what you are saying. What I want to know is how do you know for sure that the pics of Jiffy walking with them is part of that package? Unless you have seen that footage you don't know.

The only pics I have seen of Jiffy walking down the beach with the survivors is from The Early Show. So, historically has TES shown us behind the scenes footage or do they typically show us what is going to happen on the show?

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59. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
"So, historically has TES shown us behind the scenes footage or do they typically show us what is going to happen on the show?"

Both.

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60. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
So, I guess you haven't seen the footage. We are still with unanswered questions.

I think CBS is less likely to show us behind the scene footage than some other sources. IMHO.

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61. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-18-05 AT 11:37 AM (EST)

Why are they less likely when they've done it for every season except maybe numero uno?

Is the walking with Jeff stuff behind the scenes footage? I don't know for certain, but VG just told you that is part of the media kit and that stuff is all behind the scenes footage. Your reasoning that CBS is less likely to show us behind the scenes stuff doesn't hold up when they have done it practically every season.

IMO, based on having seen past media kits, that footage with Jeff walking appears to be stuff we're not going to see on the show. I could be wrong, but I am using my experience with past seasons to make an educated guess. Add that to VG telling you straight out that the walking with Jeff shot is from the media kit should end the discussion. It's behind the scenes stuff (or "b" reel as VG called it) and will probably never show up on the show.

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62. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
The reason I say that the other networks are likely to show the behind the scenes footage is because most of those networks have a "behind the scenes" Survivor show.

I don't read VG's statement to say that he/she has seen the clip him/herself. That post looks to me more of "this is typically what is in the media package".

Since I guess my question has been answered I will stop posting about this.

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42. "RE: To what event does Jeff lead them?"
I know it is most likely that Kimberly will not be one of the first 3 eliminated, but you have to remember that MB didn't say 2 don't make it to "tribes", he said "2 don't make it to the first challenge". So for all we know the 2 might get eliminated after the tribes have been formed. So technically Kimberly is still on the chopping block...but we can assume she will be saved.

As for the walk with Jeff...I think a twist will happen right after.

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television 282 desperate attention whore postings
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43. "ritual"
Ahem. Hello - first time on the spoiler board (posting, that is).

Anyhow, one thing has bothered me about all the speculation of the first two boots, and that is MB's statement (that I've heard him say a number of times promoting the show) that part of the compelling human drama of the show is that it is based on ritual. We've all seen enough Survivor to get a slightly annoyed but comforting feeling from seeing something like the last 3 people walking through coals, or some kind of "island spirit" challenge, whatever. At any rate, a large focus of the show is having people voted out in the ritualistic tribal council, and I have a hard time believing that they would sway from this. Having a "schoolyard pick 'em" of tribes and having the last two people eliminated is... well, anticlimactic. The makers of the show like to build things up, to make their "unscripted drama" have a story arc that is safe and comfortable for the viewer - in other words, they like to be unpredictable only to the extent that the viewer still has things to take for granted.

Of course, I don't see how they can have three people voted out at tribal council, especially with the quote "two of them don't make it to the first challenge". Still, I'm not sold on the idea that MB & co. would mess with the show's traditions.

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01-17-05, 09:31 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: ritual"
Welcome TV! Good insights...

It's obvious from your post that you have a good understanding of Survivor and I hope you'll continue to share your thoughts with us this season.

You mentioned..."Still, I'm not sold on the idea that MB & co. would mess with the show's traditions."

Some form of a tribal selection process or reshuffling has occured in most of the more recent Survivor seasons. In fact,we might even say that the tribal selection process has evolved to become one of "the show's traditions", in which case using some kind of selection process for elimination would not really be messing with tradition, but rather an evolution of an established element of the show.

I agree that two people being eliminated without a TC seems anti climactic, but it appears the the traditional TC to eliminate the third member will be edited as the real climax. I'm sure the editing will show the first two eliminated as "obvious choices", since we haven't had a chance to form much of an opinion, and the climactic "surprise" will be the traditonal vote at TC.

Anyway, thanks for posting your ideas TV. Hope to see you around often this season.


Krautboy

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01-17-05, 05:18 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: ritual"
LAST EDITED ON 01-17-05 AT 05:19 PM (EST)

Krautboy I agree with your thoughts on the tribal selections and mixups becoming more and more important as Survivor evolves. Wouldnt it really throw the Survivors for a loop if there were 20 buffs in some kind of container 9 of one color and 9 of another and two that were totally different from the rest( maybe purple) Each player reaches in and picks one and is assigned to that particular colored tribe. The two who pick the odd color are banished from the game. Shades of the purple rock. This would be a totally random way of assigning tribes with a fatal kicker too.RedBeard

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45. "All bets are off"
I felt the same way when the rumors were flying around before S7 of a "Ghost Tribe" of voted out players coming back into the game. I thought there would be no way that MB would violate the primary ritual in the game--"Fire Equals Life". But he did. Now? Anything's possible.

We've also had the Purple Rock of Doom. That eliminated a Final Four player in a very undemocratic (read: anti-Survivor) way.

I hear you about MB's hang up with tradition and ritual, but he's also about shaking things up. I'm leaning very heavily toward some sort of elimination during the tribal selection process. It won't be the last 2 to camp, because we've seen them all on the beach. It won't be some sort of elimination challenge, because MB has said the first 2 go before the first challenge. We know that tribes are selected at some point during E1. It seems to be the logical conclusion (at least at this point) that it's in the tribal selection process that the first 2 are eliminated.

The only other possibility in my mind is some sort of instant vote-out after all 20 Survivors are split into the 2 tribes. However, this presents the possibility of a tie, and would be incredibly awkward. Also, I can't see MB having a tribal vote outside of TC, and I can't see both tribes going to TC not having run any challenges. Not to mention 3 TCs in one episode is a lot to ask of your audience.

One last thing is the look on Kimberly's face in the vidcaps where she's wearing her buff. She looks very somber. I know it's a lot to read into a 1-2 second film clip, but she doesn't look like someone who's happy to have formed new tribes. She looks a bit apprehensive, like someone who's just dodged a bullet or is dealing with someone having been voted out. In other words, it looks like the post-TC faces we've grown accustomed to seeing on the faces of the remaining Survivors. Again, I don't want to read too much into that, but it's food for thought.

Fester

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television 282 desperate attention whore postings
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48. "RE: All bets are off"
True enough. I missed S4, so I always forget about the purple rock. That was arguably more of a shakeup than what is being proposed here. I just remember, and I hate to admit that I did this, but I watched the first episode of "the Benefactor" (I feel the shame creeping up)... anyway, he eliminated someone after five minutes. I remember saying to the TV "you idiot! What the hell's the point of bringing someone on if they don't even get a chance?" I just don't think it would be a satisfying thing if people were eliminated without being voted off... from what I have read, Pappy's "boot" didn't sit well with too many people. Nor did the "ghosts" in S7 (I certainly thought it was kinda bad)...

I'm just trying to think of how they could do it without it feeling cheap... I think the idea of voting for one male and one female to pick tribes, and then saying the two not picked will be gone, might make for some good drama (with the possible deal-making mentioned elsewhere in this thread). I guess I'm okay with this idea, but I can't really see it being done any other way.

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65. "Each person picks the next one...?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-19-05 AT 04:46 PM (EST)

Fester, what about a "democratic" tribe selection method?

I still think the idea of them voting for two chiefs will take too long, and somehow I don't think MB will want to give anyone even a perceived authority at the very beginning.

So, to further embellish what I was thinking up above: they arrive wherever, probably at the challenge site, and Jeff tells them that they each must pick a, say, rock out of a bag. He explains that all the rocks are yellow except for two which are purple. He will explain the significance of the purple rocks after everyone has drawn.

So they draw, two people get the purple rocks and proceed to freak out, since they think they are going home. But -- instead, Jeff says to them, each of you must pick one person of the opposite gender that you would like to be on your tribe.

So they each pick somebody. Then Jeff says to the second pair chosen, now you two must each pick someone to add to the tribe. And it continues, with each added pair picking their next tribe members, until there are only two people left. Jeff says, well, the two of you were not picked by anyone so you are going home.

That way, it's more like the two people are getting voted out, since their fate did not depend on just two choosers passing them up, but everyone else passing them up along the way as well.


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01-19-05, 05:05 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Each person picks the next one...?"
This makes a lot of sense BR. And, it adds some tension right off the bat. It also serves to keep the tribes relatively gender equal. If the two purple rock holders are men, you could wind up with 2 women being out first.

Also, there could still be 3 tribes this way.


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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 05:27 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: Each person picks the next one...?"
Yes it would work for three tribes as well. And the two or three differently-colored rocks, or whatever, could each be marked with a new tribal color, thus determining which tribe is which.


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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 05:30 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: Each person picks the next one...?"
That would be an interesting way to do it, especially if everyone has to pick someone of the opposite gender. You'd have to have a control in place to make sure your first 2 "pickers" would be one man and one woman. MB may not care about such equity.

Then it's essentially down to the 2 of the last 6 remaining as to who stays in the game and who goes home. Which means 2 bottom-of-the-food-chain players will decide who goes home first. Then again, they would each have a new potential ally in the person they saved from extinction. Interesting idea.

It's certainly one possible variation. It would take less time, conceivably, than electing chiefs, which is something to consider if the premiere really is only 1 hour.

Fester

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 05:53 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: Each person picks the next one...?"
You'd have to have a control in place to make sure your first 2 "pickers" would be one man and one woman.

That's true, if there are only two tribes, and if MB cares about gender balance. For a three tribe situation the first three pickers can be totally random and you'd always have one man and woman eliminated.


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01-19-05, 01:00 AM (EST)
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64. "RE: One tribe at the beginning"
A lot of good theories in this thread!

How is this one for tribal makeup:

Maybe for the first challenge they compete in 9 teams of 2 and the first five pairs to complete the challenge win immunity while the bottom 4 pairs have to go to TC? I dont know how it would work when there are an odd number of people though. But what if they just continued to have the bottom 3-4 pairs go to TC?

It would shake up and maybe even prevent long term alliances since there could potentially be an infinite number of combinations of people attending TC in a given episode, but consistently having 6-8 castaways attending TC could inflame the "under-the-radar" syndrome.

I just hope they find some way to prevent the now formulaic strategy of voting out the strong alpha types early-merge.

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