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"Weight Loss Spoilers"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-05, 05:51 PM (EST)
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"Weight Loss Spoilers"
Weight Loss Spoilers are a time tested spoiling tool, useful when predicting who will make it to the merge. While there have been some notable exceptions, weight loss is usually a reliable predictor when used in conjunction with other spoiling tools.


Weight loss reports vary in there reliability, and each must be considered individually. Historically, weight loss reports have been most reliable when the amount of weight loss has been “significant”. On average 25lbs or more has been considered “significant”, but the starting body mass, percentage of body fat, amount of time elapsed from the end of the game to the time of the report, etc. all need to be considered when evaluating reliability.

So, let’s begin…

The only report I’ve seen so far that appears to be “significant” is the following report for Stephenie Grossa, the Lacrosse player from Monmouth:

Stephenie-"My niece described her as extremely athletic, strong and ‘ripped almost like a man’. Said she has ‘killer abs’ for a girl. She also stated that she couldn’t weigh more than 100lbs and is petite and strong...they told him that she lost 14 lbs while she was away. Didn't sound like much to me at first, but considering she is a tiny, muscular girl, who knows?" (Source: yofox04)

Stephenie losing 14lbs is like Big Tom losing 40lbs, considering what good shape she was in, and how little body fat she probably had before starting the game.

Looks like Stephenie is a candidate to make the merge…


Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey Flowerpower 01-05-05 1
   RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey volsfan 01-05-05 2
       RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey Flowerpower 01-05-05 3
           RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey pmspml5 01-06-05 4
               RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey volsfan 01-06-05 5
                   RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey Flowerpower 01-06-05 6
                       RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey Brownroach 01-06-05 7
                           RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey volsfan 01-06-05 8
 RE: Weight Loss Spoilers Jerrethan 01-06-05 9
   RE: Weight Loss Spoilers Flowerpower 01-07-05 10
       RE: Weight Loss Spoilers FesterFan1 01-07-05 11
           RE: Weight Loss Spoilers caveman 01-07-05 12
 Ibrehem Weight Loss Krautboy 01-10-05 13
   RE: Ibrehem Weight Loss volsfan 01-10-05 14
       RE: Ibrehem Weight Loss Flowerpower 01-11-05 15
           More on Ibrehem Brownroach 01-11-05 16
               RE: More on Ibrehem ginger 01-14-05 18
                   RE: More on Ibrehem Loquatrix 02-22-05 23
 about Greg, in the 1/14 Metrowest N... Chez 01-14-05 17
   RE: about Greg, in the 1/14 Metrowe... Brownroach 01-14-05 19
       RE: about Greg, in the 1/14 Metrowe... Flowerpower 01-15-05 20
 Jonathan lost 10-15 pounds... Brownroach 01-24-05 21
   RE: Jonathan lost 10-15 pounds... PepeLePew13 02-22-05 25
 RE: Weight Loss Spoilers & Sera sweetpea 02-22-05 22
   RE: Weight Loss Spoilers & Sera Flowerpower 02-22-05 24

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-05, 09:18 PM (EST)
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1. "Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
Great thread KB, and one we can resort to through the show.
I agree with you. Fourteen pounds off of someone that tiny, with minimal fat, and all lean body mass is a great deal of weight. Definately post merge for her, IMO.

There was another weight loss mention already reported by Amanda Davis, Ultimatesurvivor5 at Sucks. She reported that Gregg Carey returned home from Survivor on December 11th and he regained ALL of the weight that he had lost in only 9 days.

So I question exactly how much weight that that could be. The first weight that goes when starving is "water weight". It can be lost quickly and regained just as quickly. I would think that a young physically fit male could drop as much as ten pounds in a day or so of starving(Any old high school wrestlers out there that can attest to how much weight actually can be lost quickly?) At any rate, I would think that a young man who has been denied his typical diet would be apt to overload on it once returning home. Especially one that was lean to begin with and did not want to lose the weight, nor keep it off. So, for a ball park guess, I'd bet that Gregg could have lost anywhere from 10-20 pounds???

Perhaps he is out just post merge? or around merge time? He looks to be lean and physically fit from his pic, so I'm sure he did not have much fat to spare either. Maybe he makes it farther than I first speculated as Chris losing 40 pounds would be comparable to Gregg's weight loss as well...maybe. Chris had far more fat on him than this young man....


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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-05, 09:25 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
Flower, I remember that spoiler of Gregg's weight loss and when first reading thought it might suggest an early boot for him. However, the more I think about it the more I am not convinced about him. The thing that I am always amazed about some peep's (young guys in particular) ability to lose and gain weight quickly. I guess it has to do with body mass and the way the body burns calories but Gregg could very well be the type of person that has no trouble gaining weight quickly.

OK...sorry for the rambling but I hope everyone can understand.


BTW: Damn our siggies look great! THANKS KOFAN!

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-05, 10:20 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
Yes Vols, I did the same thing as you, at first I thought that it could mean that he was an early boot. But, after reading what we know about him, young, healthy, physically fit and athletic, I don't think he probably has too much body fat on him, so if one could say that a healthy young male could lose up to 10 pounds in a day or so, and supposedly, if one could lose it that quickly, then they could gain it that quickly as well. So there really is a question mark here. I think it is safe to say that he is not a very early boot? He could be just pre-merge, circa merge, or even post merge....


Yes indeed, those siggies do look mighty fine!

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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-05, 08:57 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
My take on this was the he was probably early or mid jury. The reason is that he would have time while on the jury to start regaining his weight and leaving little left to gain back after he got home - just a thought.
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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-05, 10:08 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
That is a thought I had also. However, let's keep in mind that these people returned home around the 11th of December. Right in the middle of all the holiday celebrations...a time when most of us gain weight anyways!

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-05, 10:15 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
If he had time to regain weight while at loser lodge or during the jury, it still took him at least 9 days to regain all of the lost weight after returning home....so does that mean he could have lost more than 20 pounds? This is beginning to sound like a probable post merge boot to me then...?

Also wanted to add that there is some speculation out there regarding the weight loss of Will Smith. Nothing firmed up, by any means. Some peeps are speculating that he may have had a large weight loss as he STILL had not returned back to work by December 29th....Is he possibly hiding from the public??? To shield a large weight loss? Just speculation....? post merge boot?


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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-05, 10:44 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
LAST EDITED ON 01-06-05 AT 10:46 AM (EST)

I haven't seen the source of this spoiler, but the inference, as I see it, is that he must have been significantly thinner when he got back if someone was able to observe that he was back to his former weight in 9 days.

ETA: We should take all of these with a grain of salt for now since it seems like there were some fake weight loss spoilers planted for S9 (John Palyok coming home all beaten up-looking, e.g.).



Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-05, 11:02 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Weight Loss Spoiler-Gregg Carey"
You are so right BR! I agree that we should take light of the info. However, this has been a source of spoiling in the past. Maybe when the cast is revealed to the general public we will get more info as others that know them will come forward with info...hopefully!

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Jerrethan 51 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-05, 05:53 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers"
Reported by I LUV TIJUANA at Survivor Sucks:
'Upon returning home, many noticed that Caryn had her hair dyed, and looked a bit different from when she returned. "Her tan was very noticeable, and you could tell that she lost a couple of pounds, but not much," said a local informant.' (about Caryn Groedel)
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-05, 12:07 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers"
Great addition to the thread, JE. Once again this weight loss spoiler is debatable as Ms. Goedel is also a very lean 5'6", 120 pounds. So a smaller weight loss from this marathoner could be compared to a larger weight loss from a more substantial contestant.....very hard to predict where she lasted to...


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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-05, 01:40 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 01-07-05 AT 01:40 PM (EST)

Frankly, there isn't visual evidence yet of any contestants who would have the potential for serious weight loss. They all look to be at least moderately in shape, and most of them you could describe as very in shape.

It's certainly possible that MB picked this group because he knew that this new "twist" would require people who are phyisically fit.

Whatever the case, it seems we won't have anything close to a "Fat Five", or Big Tom, or Ted to get major weight loss spoilers on.

Fester

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caveman 91 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-05, 02:08 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers"
Another thing worth considering when we're looking at weight loss. According to a friend of mine from Vanuatu, some players will intentionally pack on some weight in the weeks prior to the game to give them an edge energy-wise. The women and body building men (perhaps vanity here) are less apt to do so because they want to look good for the TV, but we need to consider that when we are comparing them to old photos. Best photo for comparison purposes will be that first day group photo.

Caveman

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-10-05, 08:33 PM (EST)
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13. "Ibrehem Weight Loss "
LAST EDITED ON 01-10-05 AT 08:37 PM (EST)

Posted by I luv Tijuana at SS:

----------------------------------------------------------------
Here's what I posted on page one.

Ibrehem-"When I first saw him, he looked like he lost a lot of muscle, I mean a lot. I'm not sure how much muscle compares to fat, so I'm not exactly sure how much, but my best guess would be that he lost about 15 pounds, but like I said, I'm not sure how muscle and fat compares, and he definetly looked like he lost a lot of definition in his arms, chest and stomach." (anonymous source)

All I can say is that the source is someone who lives very close to Ibrehem, and is friendly with him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------


From his photo it appears that this guy has very little body fat to lose, and it takes a lot longer to lose muscle than fat. I'd say he falls into the same category as Stephenie. 15 lbs of muscle is probably significant. He should also be cosidered a merge candidate, or at worst, not an early boot.



Krautboy

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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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01-10-05, 09:13 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Ibrehem Weight Loss "
DAMN! He is gonna look deathly ill by losing 15 pounds. I agree with you that he prolly lasts deep into the game.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-11-05, 08:13 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Ibrehem Weight Loss "
Agreed KB and Vols. I'd say that the significant muscle wasting is just as significant as the amount of weight that he lost, and probably quite remarkable when one has the physique that Ibrehem has. My guess is that he is a definite post merge and beyond player....FWIW

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-11-05, 12:28 PM (EST)
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16. "More on Ibrehem"
From the same poster (LER), added to I Luv Tijuana's thread:

"Well I asked around at the gym and I found someone that knows him. He said that he noticed the muscle loss as well. His guess was also 18-20 lbs, he might be a better judge- since he's a muscle head too."(LER)



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ginger 22512 desperate attention whore postings
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01-14-05, 04:11 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: More on Ibrehem"
I think that picture of him should be posted every 10th post or so, just so we can thoroughly examine it. You know, for spoiler purposes.



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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-05, 09:05 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: More on Ibrehem"
Agreed, ginger. I am confident that counting abdominal ridges, like tree rings, will tell us... something. Something important, as the game goes on, so we must keep reverting to the original source, yes.
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Chez 777 desperate attention whore postings
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01-14-05, 03:22 PM (EST)
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17. "about Greg, in the 1/14 Metrowest News"
I live in a nearby town to Greg's. He reportedly lost about 30 pounds. Sorry for pasting this in, but the newspaper tends to lock their articles after a day or two.


Ashland native takes on 'Survivor: Palau'
By Theresa Edo / News Staff Writer
Friday, January 14, 2005

ASHLAND -- Rumors started swirling a little more than a week ago, and yesterday morning residents confirmed their suspicions that a former hometown football hero will star on the latest season of one of TV's hottest reality shows.

Gregg Carey, 28, an Ashland High School Class of 1995 graduate, will try to outwit, outplay and outlast 19 other contestants to win the $1 million prize on the 10th edition of CBS' "Survivor," set in the Pacific island nation of Palau. Friends say Carey and his family are mum about his stint on the reality television show watched by millions.

"His mother kept it a great secret. She was the only one who knew," said family friend and neighbor Robert Thacker. "What he knows he's not telling. I'm not even sure he knows what happened. I think they even try to confuse the contestants."

Carey's mother, Bonnie Carey of Ashland, did not return a phone call yesterday seeking comment.

Thacker said while Carey was away from mid-October until early December filming "Survivor: Palau," he told no one but his mother. Thacker, who spent Christmas Eve with Carey, said he lost 30 pounds during the competition.


More......................

http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=87560

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-14-05, 06:36 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: about Greg, in the 1/14 Metrowest News"
Thanks for the article and the link, Chez!

"He didn't even know who won the presidential election. They really keep them secluded," said (family neighbor) Thacker.

It's unclear if this means he didn't know until he got back, but that's what it seems to imply. If he were at Loser Lodge pre-jury wouldn't he probably have found out? Combined with the weight loss, it looks like Gregg makes the jury.


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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-15-05, 09:54 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: about Greg, in the 1/14 Metrowest News"
LAST EDITED ON 01-15-05 AT 09:55 AM (EST)

Well, another confirmation for Gregg! I say bring it on, I can't wait to see how he lasts deep into the game, I'll most certainly have fun watching him, as Vols would say, Woo and Hoo!

Thirty pounds off of a strapping lean muscled man is most definately a very significant weight loss!



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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-24-05, 05:23 PM (EST)
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21. "Jonathan lost 10-15 pounds..."
...according to some info that I Luv Tijuana got yesterday (scroll down).


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-05, 11:27 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Jonathan lost 10-15 pounds..."
Well, I guess we can toss out pretty much all weight loss spoilers in light of this fact that Jonathan was turfed out onto his butt in the first episode and the revelation that Sera made up "85%" of the so-called spoilers out there.

John Palyok was "reported" to have lost a ton of weight in Vanuatu, but as we all later found out, there was a misinformation campaign and John was out in the third episode.

I think we should disregard this thread and all rumours -- even if some turn out to be correct, there will be too many cases where we'd be barking up the wrong tree and we can't allow ourselves as legit spoilers to trust ANY weight-loss spoilers.



Scratch and sniff

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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-05, 07:28 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers & Sera"
Sera's mother died last week and he has been home for the funeral. He posted at Chatter today that he no longer feels like playing his games as survivor is no longer important to him. He also said that 85% of the weight loss spoilers came from him so to discount all weight loss spoilers.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-05, 10:06 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Weight Loss Spoilers & Sera"
Thanks for the info, Sweetpea. Please pass along to Sera that we here at Blows send our profound condolences for his loss. Tell him that we sure hope, with time, he finds his way back here. I most certainly would welcome him.

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