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"Chris's decision"
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

12-06-04, 09:43 AM (EST)
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"Chris's decision"
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-04 AT 10:36 AM (EST)

It seems to me that Chris has an interesting decision to make for this week's episode regarding the rest of the game. He can:

1) Throw his chips in with Twila and Scout and go to the final 3 with them. With only 5 players left, any 3 can control the game if they work together. The problem with that strategy is that he would then have to hope that he wins the final three immunity challenge because Twila or Scout would probably not bring him to the final 2 if they win the final 3 immunity challenge. The good news about that strategy is that he has a good chance of beating them in an endurance challenge.

2) Make a final 2 pact with Eliza. Keep the present final 4 group together for 1 more week and then work with Eliza to take on Twila. If they win the purple rock or whatever tie breaker exists, then the 2 of them will go to the final 3 with Scout who has little chance of winning the final immunity challenge. Then the 2 of them go to the final 2. The problem with this is that you have to risk the purple rock.

3) Create a new alliance with Julie and Eliza to eliminate Scout and Twila. However, these 2 alliance-mates create more difficulty with the final 3 immunity challenge and he has no assurances that if he loses the final 3 immumity challenge that he would go to the final 2.

I don't see anyone else as having choices to make this week. Twila and Scout seem to have already made deals with each other and thrown in their chips with Chris. They seem to have little love for Eliza or Julie. Eliza doesn't have a decision to make. Any change of strategy on her part involves convincing others to do things and that creates risks of alienating people. Julie is in the Chris position of a few weeks ago. Hope to create tension among the dominant alliance.

Chris, however, has some interesting choices in front of him. If I was Chris, I would pursue choice 1. Get yourself to the final 3 against 2 people that are not very well liked and win the final 3 IC.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Chris's decision Dakota 12-06-04 1
 RE: Chris's decision fairyprincess 12-06-04 2
 RE: Chris's decision abbahammer 12-06-04 3
 RE: Chris's decision kingfish 12-06-04 4
 RE: Chris's decision oncebitten 12-06-04 5
 RE: Chris's decision PepeLePew13 12-06-04 6
   RE: Chris's decision Round Robin 12-08-04 8
 RE: Chris's decision JohnMc 12-06-04 7
 RE: Chris's decision esquire 12-12-04 9

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Dakota 5819 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-04, 10:22 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Chris's decision"
I think that first Chris has to decide who he wants to be in the final 2 with and work backwards to determine his strategy. If he goes final two with Eliza, he knows he's got the Sarge/Chad/Scout/Twila vote and the million. Eliza will have Julie/Ami/Leeann. If he goes with Twila or Scout, there's more uncertainty in spite of Ami's animosity towards Twila/Scout. Jurors have been known to get over their anger while enjoying the comforts of Loser Lodge and Ami seems to have a problem with men--she wasn't just sticking to an alliance. Julie and Leeann will probably go with Ami's vote--neither bonded with the men and they may or may not vote against the women who broke their alliance. Chris seems to have the best chance of winning by going with Eliza since he's more likely to get the Twila/Scout vote than Ami/Leeann/Julie.

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fairyprincess 262 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-04, 10:24 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Chris's decision"
Hi, I disagree that Eliza doesn't hold any cards here. If Eliza were smart (and that remains to be seen in my book) she would go to both Chris and Julie and the 3 of them would get rid of Twila and Scout. T & S seem to have had the upper hand lately and the other 3 some would be better off getting rid of them NOW. Although Chris would have a better chance at winning the challenges against the older ladies, I don't think that T & S would let him be in the final 2. He's better off going into the final 2 with Eliza who is not admired much by the jury. Well, that I'm not too sure about, but still think Chris would win if up against Eliza. Julie would be a pawn to CHris and Eliza. I hope that Chris wins this game. That to me would be the ultimate ending.
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abbahammer 70 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-04, 10:43 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Chris's decision"
I am still not convinced that Ami wouldn't vote for Chris if he makes it to the final 2. She kept Chris around when she could have voted him out. Ultimately, it led to her own demise. I have rarely seen a vote along "party lines" in the final vote. When it comes down to it, people often vote for the person that they feel is most deserving or the person who didn't lie to them.

In this particular case, I would assume that Julie is Toast this week. They are assuring themselves the final four if they vote this way. I think this week we have misdirection to make us think that they may be voting out Twila. But my guess is this is added for drama and to misdirect from the obvious Julie Boot. At final four this is where the strategy comes in. I could see Chris keeping Scout over Twila as Scout is less of an immunity threat. I am not convinced that there is a solid alliance there. Don't forget, we are down to final four. Also, Scout called out Twila to Ami when Ami asked how Leann got booted.

Abbahammer

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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-04, 11:16 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Chris's decision"
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-04 AT 11:17 AM (EST)

Good observations, Esquire. And I agree with your final observation as to what Chris should do. But because Eliza and Chris have the strongest alliance at the moment, Eliza actually has the same choices/decisions to make as Chris.

1. Throw in with Twila and Scout for F3, booting in some order Julie and Chris, (Surely this will at least be discussed, if rejected).

2. Make a F3 pact with Chris (at least for F3, I don't see them making a F2 pact unless it would be a false promise designed to lull the other into going along). At F3 both Chris and Eliza will recognize that advantage of taking who ever is the third survivor at that point. Whether they would act on that recognition and go with the game-wise move, well, who knows (Chris would, IMO. Eliza would also, IMO, but will be more torn).

3. Eliza could also consider the advantage of teaming with Julie and Chris to bump off Twila and/or Scout.

AS to what Chris (or Eliza for that matter) should do, teaming with T and S for F3 could be a great move. Maybe for them (T&S) also if they see that that includes the possibility of Twila winning F3 and taking Scout to F2. The fact that Twila could win F3 IC is the drawback to that course of action from Chris or Elizas point of view, because if Chris or Eliza were there instead of Twila, along with SCout (who won't win F3 IC), Either E or C would win but each could be fooled into thinking that the other would be more likely than twila to take them to F2 because of their pact.

All this adds interest to this weeks episode, not so much for the boot (The stars have lined up behind a Julie boot, I'm afraid) but for clues as to which way these decisions and the F4 alignments will go.

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oncebitten 145 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-04, 11:32 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Chris's decision"
There has been a lot of talk (especially by Twila) regarding a tie and the "purple rock". I think leads to Twila being voted out due to a tie or "the dreaded purple rock".
I think that this week Julie will go and then they will be down to four which could be the week of the tie and the possible Twila "tie breaker" with it coming down to Twila being booted.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-04, 11:50 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Chris's decision"

>The problem with that strategy is that
>he would then have to hope that he wins the
>final three immunity challenge because
>Twila or Scout would probably
>not bring him to the final 2 if they win
>the final 3 immunity challenge.
> The good news about that strategy is that he
>has a good chance of beating them in an endurance
>challenge.

Actually, Twila has shown she can win an endurance challenge that isn't water-based. She won the pole sitting IC, where Chris folded easily. Women tend to do well in the final IC where they'd have to balance and stand on something holding a pole or something like that. The one time there was a strength endurance was in Thailand where Brian won easily -- that's probably the only one that Chris *should* have a clear advantage, but even that isn't a sure thing considering how tough Twila is.

The other thing that Chris should do is to find a way to take advantage of the fighting going on in camp and sell either Twila or Scout on the merits of taking Eliza along as the "disliked F2" opponent with the other of Twila/Scout to be booted. If Twila really loses her cool as we're seeing in the previews, maybe Scout won't mind booting her if it means keeping herself alive and also maintaining harmony around camp.



ŠSlice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
Scratch and sniff

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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
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12-08-04, 00:22 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Chris's decision"
At this point I don't think any of them, even Scout, will give a rat's a$$ about harmony around camp. The next TC comes with only 3 days left on the island, and Scout will gladly tough it out for such a short period with any of the others she thinks she can beat in the F2.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"

12-06-04, 01:20 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Chris's decision"
Let's look at those options:

1 - This is Chris's best move. He made a deal with Twila and Scout to make it to F4. If he defects on either of them, he will lose their jury vote. (Now, Chris still has 2 votes in the bag with Sarge and Chad, but he still needs 2 more - and only 1 if he has Ami's, which will depend on who he's with in F2.)

2 - F2 w/Eliza could pan out, while still keeping with Scout and Twila. Scout and Twila are the obvious alliance, so Chris and Eliza need to just make their misfit F2 alliance. Not much other choice.

Even with the possibility of a tie, there's no saying that Rich's, er... Chris' manipulative ability can't get Twila to defect on Scout to avoid the purple rock. Rob and Amber got Jenna to do it to avoid PR. The way I see it, if you have immunity, and you have 2 2-person alliances at F2, then one of the 2 on the alliance that didn't have immunity will be voted out.

3 - This is the worst option. As stated above, Chris loses 2 jury votes by voting out Scout or Twila now.

But I do agree that Chris is now in a power position at F5. Go Chris!

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

12-12-04, 11:55 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Chris's decision"
I guess choice 1 was the way to go after all
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