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"They didn't need Eliza's vote"
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

11-26-04, 02:51 PM (EST)
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"They didn't need Eliza's vote"
Late last night, something interesting occurred to me. At least I thought it was interesting. Chris, Scout and Twila didn't really need Eliza's vote to get rid of LeeAnn.

If no one spoke to Eliza before TC, then

1) Julie, Ami and LeAnn vote for Eliza,
2) Scout, Twila and Chris vote for LeeAnn and
3) Eliza probably votes for Chris thinking that the all woman alliance is still in place

That leaves us with a second round of voting with everyone but Eliza and Leann voting. Now,

1) Julie and Ami for Eliza,
2) Scout, Twila and Chris vote for LeeAnn

Leann Gets voted off without Chris, Twila and Scout having Chris speak to Eliza.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote smokedog 11-26-04 1
 RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote Gothmog 11-26-04 2
   RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote PepeLePew13 11-26-04 3
       RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote pmspml5 11-26-04 4
           RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote Gothmog 11-26-04 6
       RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote RyrieRae 11-26-04 5
           RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote esquire 11-27-04 8
               RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote JohnMc 11-29-04 10
                   RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote esquire 11-29-04 13
 RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote Dennis24or48_2005 11-26-04 7
 beg to differ JohnMc 11-29-04 9
   RE: beg to differ PepeLePew13 11-29-04 11
       RE: beg to differ PackMan 11-29-04 12
           RE: beg to differ Nashter 11-29-04 14

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Messages in this topic

smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 02:54 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
The flaw with this is that I believe there is no way Twila would vote away from the rest of the women if she didn't have a majority. She wouldn't risk it, like she wouldn't risk a 4-4 tie last episode, even with her immunity.
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Gothmog 2886 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 02:55 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
Why wouldn't Eliza and Leann get to vote the second time around? As I recall from the FF tie in Borneo, everyone got to vote a second time, even Rich and Susan. Kelly changed her vote the second time to avoid a tie.

This isn't exactly spoilerish, IMO.

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PepeLePew13 25967 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 03:01 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
And when there was a tie at the final four in the Marquesas, all four had to vote again to try and break the tie, including Pappy who didn't get a single vote the first go-around and Kathy/Neleh who each got two votes. The rock ended up being used.



ŠSlice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 03:09 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
I think what she is saying is that LeAnn and Eliza would have to vote for each other canceling them out the end result would still be a LeAnn boot - the problem with that is then Eliza is way out there instead of in your pocket like they want her.
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Gothmog 2886 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 03:15 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
If there is a tie and a revote, people can vote for anyone, not just for the two who are tied. Otherwise, in past ties, they would not have let the people up for the boot vote again, since they could only vote for each other, and it wouldn't have mattered (like they do in F3). Since they DID let them vote, we can be sure they could vote for anyone else if they wanted.
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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 03:14 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
In Survivor One the tie was bewtween Rich and Sue...

Richard and Rudy voted for Sue
Kelly and Sue voted for Richard.

The ALL FOUR voted again, but they could only vote for Richard or Sue. Kelly had immunity, and Rudy wasn't part of the tie, so he, in a way, had immunity during the tie breaker.

So if there was a tie this time bewteen Leann and Eliza...

Leann, Ami and Julie would vote for Eliza
and Twila, Scout, Chris, and Eliza would vote Leann.

The plan would still work, just take the long way. For security, I would do what they did.

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-04, 08:41 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"

>The plan would still work, just
>take the long way.
>For security, I would do
>what they did.

The potential problem with what they did is that by telling Eliza you are adding a layer of risk that Eliza will tell Ami and LeeAnn of your plan. If the rules regarding ties have not changed and the tie breaking vote only involves Eliza and LeeAnn, then Chris, Twila and Scout did not need to take that risk and speak to Eliza before the vote. They can speak to her after the vote and tell Eliza that they were the 3 some that saved her little tush. I don't know what other 3 some could take credit for voting for LeeAnn

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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"

11-29-04, 11:41 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
<<The potential problem with what they did is that by telling Eliza you are adding a layer of risk that Eliza will tell Ami and LeeAnn of your plan.>>

Um, I don't see this as a problem. Eliza is the target. She is going to be voted out. So if you tell her that she is going to be voted out, then what happens if she tells Ami and Leanne? They either console Eliza and say, "It's your turn," or they lie to her face and say, "No, we are voting for Chris - it's a girls alliance."

Eliza had nothing to lose and everything to gain by voting with C/S/T.

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

11-29-04, 02:34 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
So if you tell
>her that she is going
>to be voted out, then
>what happens if she tells
>Ami and Leanne? They
>either console Eliza and say,
>"It's your turn," or they
>lie to her face and
>say, "No, we are voting
>for Chris - it's a
>girls alliance."
>
>Eliza had nothing to lose and
>everything to gain by voting
>with C/S/T.

However, if Eliza tells LeAnne and Ami, then Ami and LeAnn may not only lie to her, but they will also go back to making it an all girl alliance. They tell Eliza to vote off Chris and they vote for Chris as well. The vote is 4-3 and Chris is voted out


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Dennis24or48_2005 1 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-04, 03:17 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: They didn't need Eliza's vote"
This plan was good, but not as good as the plan that ousted Jase in BB5, Be interesting to see where the game goes from here. Ami's gotta go she's the devil queen
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-04, 11:37 AM (EST)
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9. "beg to differ"
Having a stray vote is a bad idea. You may have ended up with the votes as follows:

Ami, Julie, Leanne - Eliza
Twila, Scout, Chris - Leanne
Eliza - Chris

As soon as Eliza realizes she is the odd one out, then any number of reshuffling possibilities can take place. Eliza may decide to vote against the people that voted for her. But she doesn't necessarily know who cast which vote. More than likely, she'd just vote for Scout, causing another tie.

But also in this reshuffling, Scout and Twila could decide to vote for Chris or Eliza, meaning that Chris could get voted out, and obviously this is not in his best interest.

The other thing that having that 4th vote is that it solidifies the next vote. If they had still voted out Leanne but Eliza hadn't voted for her, then she's the odd one out. Ami and Julie will reel Eliza in, and then we get another tie. With that tie, it will either be broken by sending Chris home, or by the purple rock, which means that anyone not having immunity could go home. Ties are ALWAYS bad.

Chris, Twila, and Scout needed to have Eliza on their side. Now they have much more security in reaching F4.

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PepeLePew13 25967 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-04, 11:51 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: beg to differ"

>Ami, Julie, Leanne - Eliza
>Twila, Scout, Chris - Leanne
>Eliza - Chris
>
>As soon as Eliza realizes she
>is the odd one out,
>then any number of reshuffling
>possibilities can take place.
>Eliza may decide to vote
>against the people that voted
>for her. But she
>doesn't necessarily know who cast
>which vote. More than
>likely, she'd just vote for
>Scout, causing another tie.

In this case, it's pretty clear that Eliza would think "I've got to vote for Leann on the revote to save my butt" and hope the others vote exactly the way they did without reshuffling.

Regardless, I'm in agreement that nobody can afford to have a stray vote unless it is clear they've got a majority. Twila and Chris knew they wouldn't have a majority without Eliza so they had to include her.

Now they've got a majority so they (Chris/Twila/Scout) can afford to leave Eliza blowing in the wind and still target Ami/Julie -- but they've got to be careful that Eliza won't vote for whoever Ami/Julie want to target.



ŠSlice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
Scratch and sniff

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PackMan 1207 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-04, 12:43 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: beg to differ"
Now they've got a majority so they (Chris/Twila/Scout) can afford to leave Eliza blowing in the wind and still target Ami/Julie -- but they've got to be careful that Eliza won't vote for whoever Ami/Julie want to target.

They need Eliza for one more vote to get rid of either Ami or Julie, plus she's a good choice to sit next to in the Final 2. At this point, stray votes are too risky. I think C/S/T locked Eliza down with last week's alliance AND Ami's knowing look at Eliza when her name was read off the first card. If Eliza had any doubts prior to TC, Ami removed them when she gave a bit of a nod as if to say, "Yeah, it's your turn."


If you don't have time to do it right the first time, when are you going to find time to do it again? - Anonymous

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Nashter 35 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

11-29-04, 09:35 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: beg to differ"
But I suspect that all of Scout Twila and Chris would see the sense in keeping mouthy irritating Eliza around. Who better to go to final 2 than the person least liked by the majority of the jury.
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