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TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 11-19-04, 00:42 AM (EST) "Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" *Total speculation alert* I see a Chris-Eliza final two, and a Chris victory. A big part this game is choosing who to sit next to at the end. A good player arrives at that final pairing seated next to a detestable or creepy alternative. Exhibit A: Clay. Exhibit B: Matthew. Assume we are correct that Ami-Leann-Julie are on the wrong side of a splintered alliance. We end up with a CETS final four. And here's what I see in their transparent little heads: Eliza would probably rather sit next to Chris, the only male, while facing a jury that has five women. I don't think she realizes how much the women dislike her. Her second choice is probably Twila. She would never take Scout to the final two. If Chris has a choice between Twila, Scout or Eliza, he will certainly try to take Eliza to the final two. He would not chose Scout. He might take Twila, but if he did, it would be a mistake. I think he's a better player than that. If Twila has a choice, she'd be smart to take Eliza, who is despised, rather than Chris, who seems to have made friends among the women. No one wants to sit next to Scout, who is inexplicably well-liked and could beat the others in any jury vote. She's a wild card who would make an exceptionally bad final two choice. Because of this, Scout can't do better than third place. Certainly Scout will not be in a position to choose the final pair, since that would involve winning immunity. The only immunity Scout will get is a flu shot. Back to that CETS Final Four. Chris and Twila know Scout would beat them, and they both know Eliza is disliked. They may plot this out, or they may arrive at it independently, but at the final four TC they will join with Eliza to boot Scout. This serves their own agendas of keeping motormouth around for the finals. In that final three, one of them will win immunity. Twila would seem an obvious choice. The winner is not usually the obvious choice. Exhibit A: Jenna. Exhibit B: Big Lill. If Eliza wins, she chooses Chris. IF Chris wins, he chooses Eliza. Final vote: Chris 5 (Sarge, Chad, Scout, Twila, Julie) Eliza 2 (Ami Leann). These reality show contestants need a reality check!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... KObrien_fan 11-19-04 1    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... redbeard103152 11-19-04 2    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Flowerpower 11-19-04 3        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Lucille 11-19-04 4        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... emydi 11-19-04 6            RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Flowerpower 11-19-04 7                RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... emydi 11-19-04 8                    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Brownroach 11-19-04 9                        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... emydi 11-19-04 10                        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... JazzyJax 11-19-04 17                        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Flowerpower 11-22-04 20  RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Brownroach 11-19-04 5  RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... cuon10 11-19-04 11  RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... ShadyLady 11-19-04 12    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... emydi 11-19-04 13    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... KObrien_fan 11-19-04 14        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Flowerpower 11-19-04 15            RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... KObrien_fan 11-19-04 16                RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... redbeard103152 11-19-04 18                RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... TeamJoisey 11-19-04 19                    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... Loquatrix 11-24-04 24                        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... marebear79 11-24-04 25    RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... cuon10 11-22-04 21        RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... kingfish 11-22-04 22            RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How... DRONES 11-24-04 23

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 06:43 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I agree with most everything you say TJ, I have been touting Chris since episode 1, and now it gets clearer that he is going to have to do some manipulation as well as being "used" as a swing vote. I think the final vote will be 4-3 though. That starts this week as the women are split right down the middle: Eliza, Scout, and Twila on one side Ami, Leann and Julie on the other side. Tie breaker Chris, boot: Leann So NOW who is in charge? 2004 A S S Trivia Champ   Top

redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-19-04, 07:03 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I agree with you KOF. I have been a fan of Chris since he dodged the bullet in episode one. He has been the under the radar leader of the men from the beginning and he has now kicked his game into high gear. The comment he made about voting for Sarge shows that he really does have his head in the game.The fact that we see see Ami wearing his Ohio State hat lets me know that she is being snowballed by him too. Too many key quotes are coming from his mouth for him not to make the final four.Also I have been one of Elizas biggest boosters from the beginning too. She is everyones perfect opponent for the final 2.Her intellegence will help her win a key IC somewhere down the road that will keep her in the game. If she makes the final four she will be a lock to be picked by any of her opponents to be taken to the finals because of her mouth and the fact she is disliked by so many others. I dont see anyone losing to her if she reaches that point which is exactly where she is headed now. Watch her watch her well.RedBeard   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 09:05 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I agree that I think Chris and Eliza may be headed to the F2. I don't agree that Scout would be a shoo-in to win if she were in the F2. Scout will be exposed next week as betraying her alliance. She was a real loser at the challenges and only served to bring her team down, i'm sure there are others that resent her as we know that Eliza has resented her. I also do not think that little Eliza will desert the power players of Ami/Leanne. I think she has felt protected by her and is a loyal little follower now. I definately see Julie as the one who will swing to vote with Chris/Scout/Twila. Julie succumbed to Ami's group last week as she did'nt have the numbers. When Scout first approached the subject of giving Eliza the boot, she was the first to jump, sincerely I thought, on that band wagon. I see Eliza clinging to Ami's coattails for as long as she can....until Ami goes to loser lodge.   Top

Lucille 31 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-19-04, 09:43 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I think one of the main ones to be against Scout, therefore, trying to get her ousted before the F4 would be Chris and Twila for that matter. Last night, Chris saw the true Scout and that she could not be trusted, also I think Twila will be one to turn on Scout before too long.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 11:15 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 11:18 AM (EST) After Ep. 10, I too think it will be Julie that is the 4th vote to oust Leann...Eliza may even vote for her too but Julie will, imo. cowboy has a good analysis of how this might come about from the misdirection quotes about a person trying to solidy their F4 spot...Julie with Leann and Julie not hearing what she wants to hear. I also think that Twila does not make the F4, rather Julie does...she may continue to be hesitant maybe at F6 (when it's even nos. again) or F5 about voting off Ami/Scout and that will be the end of her...stupid.... Also, what the heck was Scout doing blabbing her plan to oust Eliza to everyone...and how did she think out of what was shown (although more could have been said) that Leann was on board...stupid also... With that said, right now, I would like to see a F3 of Ami, Eliza and Chris...at least Ami knows how to play this game...Scout and Twila are totally clueless imo...and I really don't think anything is going on behind the scenes with Twila. She is a female Butch..expendable... Handcrafted by RollDdice et fix link   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 11:22 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" ...and I really don't think anything is going on behind the scenes with Twila. She is a female Butch...expendable... e, I quite agree. Although I have loved Twila's development throughout the show, her indecisiveness is going to kill her. Chad on the Early Show also commented about just this, Twila could'nt make a decision if her life depended on it.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 11:29 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" When she was telling Chad to jump off the pole last nite at IC..I was LIVID!!! That woman.....she is a little troll... Although Chad wasn't too bright in listening to her!!!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 11:49 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" On TES Chad said that Twila climbed a notch further up on the pole towards the end of the IC. She could be a contender to win a late game endurance challenge, if any of the others were paying attention... Re Twila's indecisiveness: I don't think the issue is so much that she *is* indecisive -- she tries to figure out what's going on and does make what she feels is the best decision. I think previously her problem was that she *communicated* an air of having divided loyalties -- she kept saying she felt more comfortable with the men, but she always voted with the women, yet after Julie's lie was exposed she said she should have trusted Sarge, etc. All of her remarks made her seem hard to pin down. I think that's what Chad was referring to. And as I had said, I felt it could get her into trouble in last night's ep. But now that all but one of the men are gone, she doesn't have to try to placate both genders. She should be able to choose a path without having to equivocate in her explanations. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 12:19 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" nope, she's an equivocator...plain and simple..imo, she will continue to do so...and it will be her demise... I took Chad's comments (OMH he looked good all clean shaven) as more that she is a follower, expendable....Chris will get rid of her... Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004   Top

JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-19-04, 02:32 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I'm not sure Twila is *indecisive* per se, she may be the verbal type that hashes things out loud to weigh her decisions. Not a good trait to have when you need to be sneaky toward the end of the game, but she seems to be making the right decisions so far. She had the guys convinced at merge, and started their slide. She did rightly bring up the point last night that voting off another guy would make the most sense. I'm a little concerned that Ami wouldn't give her the time of day last night as to who the ladies group would be voting out. That does point to a definite division next week.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-22-04, 07:27 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" Brownroach, I agree with what you have commented on regarding Twilla. I feel that this indecisiveness that I have referred to may be an inability to commit to one side or the other...she's easily swayed by reason from both sides. I think that now that the guys are mostly gone perhaps she will commit and further her game. If she still waivers between Chris/Scout and Ami/Leanne she'll be toast.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 11:00 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I also arrived at a Chris/Twila/Scout/Eliza F4 in the Leann thread. I agree Scout seems destined to be gone by F3 no matter what. Not so sure Eliza would get to F2 without immunity at F4 though, since Scout would be the deciding factor in the F4 vote. She'd have no problem kicking out Eliza, but she might have a problem voting out Twila or Chris since she likes them much better. And Eliza would be an F3 immunity threat. Granted she would be an excellent F2 partner for any of the three. But if Eliza won F3 immunity, a) she would never bring Scout with her to F2 (not that Chris or Twila would, but it would be most obvious to Scout that Eliza wouldn't); and b) neither Chris nor Twila could be certain which one of them Eliza would take. So I think the hope would be that they can get Eliza out by F4. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-19-04, 12:21 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" Maybe, but if they take Scout, she is not a shoe-in. I feel that if it were Twila and Scout that Twila may have it because I believe Eliza dislikes Scout more. Twila-Sarge,Chad,Eliza,Julie Scout-Leanne,Ami,Chris Twila-Sarge,Chad,Scout,Julie, Eliza-Ami,Leanne,Chris Twila-Sarge,Chad,Scout,Chris Ami-LeAnne,Julie,Eliza Chris-Sarge,Ami,Eliza Twila-Chad,LeAnne,Julie,Scout Twila-Sarge,Chad,Eliza,Scout Julie-Ami,LeAnne,Chris Twila-Sarge,Chad,Chris,Scout LeAnne-Julie,Ami,Eliza but the last two are not probable at all. Since all sources point to LeAnnes dismissal next week. The only way I see a real clean sweep from the ladies is if it were one of the females against Eliza, but I believe in that case Sarge might vote for her because as he left, he said he believed her to be as sincere as any of them. Then the other men might to. All she would need is one more vote and Leanne might go for her. Ami might get close to a clean sweep against Chris, but about now "hello" you would think the other women would be getting smarter about doing a final challenge of endurance. Who would you want as #4 for you to get into the final 3. Eliza, who is physically dissipating before our eyes or Ami, who seems for the most part unaffected compared to most of the others. Scout who has no real strong endurance, but did well for her condition in this last challenge. I believe that the final four might well be Twila,Chris,Eliza and Scout. I do not see them taking Ami to the final four unless she gets immunity. The smart ones are thinking Scout for final 4 or 3 because of physical weakness and Eliza. I believe Ami has in mind, herself, Leanne,Scout and Eliza, because either way she has in mind a majority vote. I also believe that Twila's best bet is to take Chris, Scout and Eliza. Take out Scout, then Eliza and final two with Chris. I have faith Twila will win in that case.   Top

ShadyLady 21 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-19-04, 12:30 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" If Leann was not already posted at Snewser, would we all be looking at a Chris boot next? Doesn't it make sense for Ami, Leann, Eliza and Julie to vote off Chris? Then they could take care of Scout, and then Twila (which ever one does not have immunity). After all of the plotting and scheming we saw, the women all voted for Chad anyway It would seem they are still focused on the same goal: A Girls Only Final Two. With Chris gone, then Scout would be left swinging in the breeze because she doesn't seem to have any alliance anymore. Right now she does not seem to have any help with getting rid of Eliza and then Ami, like she wanted to, even if she were to (RIGHT, AND I AM A SUPERMODEL)win immunity. I think Twila would be next for two reasons. First, she apparently makes no bones about not being able to make up her mind, which in my book means she can't be trusted because she is thinking for herself. And second, she can obviously win physical challenges (Side bar: I thought is was cr*ppy of her to coax Chad off the pole). Why did she work so hard to win immunity this week? If Chad had won wouldn't his votes have gone to Chris? Maybe she feels a target on her back. That leaves Ami, Leann, Eliza and Julie to fight it out. At this point I'm in the "Anyone But Ami" camp. But it would be great if Eliza survived long enough to be the Sole Survivor.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 12:51 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" First, she apparently makes no bones about not being able to make up her mind, which in my book means she can't be trusted because she is thinking for herself. Twila is not thinking for herself...she equivocates and goes along with the majority..she is a troll.... Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 12:53 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I think the girls at the lower end of the pecking order are smart enough to realize that they need Chris to get rid of Ami and her minions in order to make it further into the game themselves. Twila nailed it last night by saying something to the effect that they didn't have odd numbers and that she couldn't risk a tie vote and having to draw a dang rock out of a bag. That shows me that she has watched the show and has learned. This coming week they will have the odd numbers needed for a coup, and so we will witness the 3 women at the bottom of the pecking order join Chris to oust Lieutenant Slaby. 2004 A S S Trivia Champ   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 12:59 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" By the three women who are lowest in the pecking order, I'm assuming that you are referring to Eliza, Twila, and Scout?   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-19-04, 01:08 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 01:08 PM (EST) That is correct. That is what I said on the other thread (and on the post up above), so I will say it here too. I think Julie sticks with Leann and Ami and the women are split right down the middle. Chris is the deciding vote and holds the power this week, IMO. 2004 A S S Trivia Champ   Top

redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-19-04, 05:41 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" And the breakup of the super womens alliance continues with Ami getting the boot as soon as she loses an IC. At this point all the remaining survivors have got to know that Ami is the one who has to be feared in both the immunity challanges that remain and the opponent most likely to beat you in the finals.RedBeard   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 11-19-04, 09:16 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I'm so with you KO, that I have moved well past next week. All the editing is proof positive that the wymyn's alliance will finally splinter. Ami & Leann are on the wrong side. They are the next two boots unless they win immunity. I'm thinking ahead to the final six... five... four. As always, the odd numbers are the tipping points. If Chris can hold on to Twila and Scout, he can get to the final four. Unless the three women turn on him at that point, he can win the game. I think he's the best player in the game, and has been since day one. I thought he was going to win when he survived Episode One.   Top

Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-24-04, 03:28 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" Oooooh, I so hope you're right, Joisey. Normally I'm indifferent to all the players until we get to know them a bit better, but this time I've been an ardent Chris cheerleader since Episode 1. Even before he managed to salvage his ##### after the balance beam incident, I felt drawn to him as a result of early confessional comments of his. Since I am normally indifferent to the personalities, focusing only on the gameplay to decide whether I favour one contestant over another, I can only surmise that something is working on me in the background, and doing a very good job of it. I suspect this mystery factor is Chris' editing and I suspect it has been hard at work on my subconscious since the first moment he appeared on the screen. Because of the way Chris is shown to us, it would be the best result ever, in my opinion, if he were to pull out a win. I'm rooting for him so hard that it's actually making this season one of the most enjoyable ever, for me. Even when he joined in with the ruination of his former ally, Sarge, he came across as a Good Bloke. In his very worst moments, we are shown a sympathetic Chris, or a Chris who is cunning enough to get himself out of a crisis without burning anyone so much that they notice. Put it this way - I'll be horribly disappointed if he doesn't win. All the elements are there pointing at a Chris win - the delightful contrast of supposed male superiority which has been ladled on heavily throughout the show in everything from the island's backstory to the comments of the players themselves, compared with the fact that he looks like a hopeless underdog now that he's the lone male among a pack of women led by the indomitable Ami. The way things are going, and more importantly the way they are being shown to us, I cannot envisage being satisfied with anything other than a Chris win at this point. I would like to be able to come away from this season saying "Behold the best player ever to play the game," and be saying that about Chris. This is Mark Burnett's doing. This is the editing doing this to me. There is no other explanation for it other than the production itself rejoicing in a Chris win after a string of insipid women's victories (and I say that even after enjoying Sandra's win more than most others). Just my opinion, of course, and a bit of cheerleading for Chris, since the opportunity arose. ;)   Top

marebear79 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-24-04, 10:24 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I am right there with you Lo. Chris has seemed like a positive contender from the very beginning--and I am not sure why! Probably episode one--he saved himself and that was the beginning of a great season for him. I think this week will show his true colors to us finally--he will use his superior strategic skills to get rid of LeeAnn (the deputy before the chief) and shift the power balance. I've said it before and I'll say it again--if Chris makes it this week he goes all the way... Marebear79   Top

cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-22-04, 08:19 AM (EST) 21. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" Twila is most likely not next. Why? Because in the previews for next week, they try to make it look like she is being used as some sort of a scapegoat, but she was not shown during any of this. Besides, snewser is more accurate than not, and there has to be a reason for the prediction of Leanne. Also, there is not a person there that believes they are NOT smarter than Twila and slyer. I get the distinct feeling, they have never been so wrong. Twila is playing this game as hard as Ami, whom I hope is going soon. Ami also is aligned with Eliza. She is not the one who is so gung-ho about getting rid of her. That is Scout,Julie and LeAnne. If you remember, when they talked about ditching Eliza, Twila was just up for what they thought was best. She never committed with any of them, just went along with the masses. Also, Chris started many weeks ago trying to work out a alliance within an alliance to insure he went to final 4 and 2. That was while the guys were in power. He is a slug, but I am guessing he and Twila may actually have a plan.   Top

kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-22-04, 09:43 AM (EST) 22. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" LAST EDITED ON 11-22-04 AT 09:45 AM (EST) "Besides, snewser is more accurate than not, and there has to be a reason for the prediction of Leanne." Snewser Might just be going out of town (t-giving )and decided to put up a guess/solid spoiler in advance becasue of that. I know I am, and I'll have to make an early guess and check out what happeed next week.   Top

DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-24-04, 01:47 AM (EST) 23. "RE: Dissecting the Final Four - How Chris beats Eliza" I believe Snewser put up that prediction a while ago because of some solid information. DRONES   Top

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