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"Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 02:05 AM (EST)
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"Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
The way I see it, there are only two possible bootees this week, metal leg and plastic knee.

Here's how I've come to this iron clad conclusion.

First, we have the time tested STC theory which points to a male boot this week. The promos suggest that Scout makes her move and that the female alliance might crumble...also Scout says that Ami will go. Will she? Will the female alliance crumble? Of course not, and here's why.

First, the obvious answer is that spoiling history has taught us that the previews are basically all mis-direction so that in and of itself should tip us off to the fact that the pagonging is going to continue.

Second, lets look at what would have to happen for Scout's plan to work. If Scout were to enact a plan with the guys to topple the Ami&Co alliance she would need both guys, Twila and either Julie or Eliza. You could say what about a tie vote, but there is NO WAY either Scout or Twila are going to put themselves in the purple rock position when they don't have to...that's just plain asinine and it won't happen.

And we know that LeeAnn/Ami won't turn on each other so it will have to be Julie or Eliza. First, I don't see any scenario where Julie joins up with the guys, Scout and Twila. For one, she already has a better spot in teh food chain with Ami&Co. Second of all, why would she join up with three people she has already been caught lying to in this game. And on the other end, I don't think Twila would put herself in another position where she is relying on Julie, not after it was revealed to her by Sarge that Julie lied to her.

That leaves us with Eliza. Same as Julie, I think Eliza feels she is already in a good position with Ami's group. She probably assumes she is ahead of Julie since she was with Ami and LeeAnn the whole time. Remember, it was Scout who took her out of the coconut chop challenge. Which brings me to my next point...would Elzia be willing to team up with Scout, who she hates? I doubt it. And on the flipside, will Scout be willing to rely on Eliza to accomplish this coupe? I don't think so to that either.

So, I don't see anyway that Chris/Chad/Scout can get the requisite 5 votes needed to pull a coup. Also, lets not overlook the fact that EVERYONE knows that the key numbers for accomplishing a coup are ODD, not even and right now there are still 8 people in the game.

Also, next week's ep is called Suprise, and surpise again. Since Snewser is saying that LeeAnn is gone next week...how would that be a suprise if Scout's plan works this week and Ami's alliance is toppled???? It wouldn't. Therefore, I'm willing to say that the foursome of Ami/LeeAnn/Eliza/Julie are all safe this week. Additionally, the surpise title probably wouldn't work too well if ANY of the ladies went this week so Scout and Twila are probably safe as well.

Now, since it has been established that it is a guy who is going that leaves us two choices...Chris and Chad. Of the two, Chris is the only one with a weight loss spoiler, plus, Chris has been getting great F3 editing the whole season whereas Chad has been getting "and who were you on the show again" editing.

Chad is DEFINITELY gone this episode.

Now, let's for one second look at the only other scenario I see possible.

We know that Scout is going to target Ami this week. What if Ami&Co find out about it? How will they find out you ask? Here is one scenario I have....

Chris said in what I thought was a HUGE quote that if the girls open up a door he's gonna make his move and burn as many of them as he can. Well, when Scout opens her big mouth to Chris about getting rid of Ami Chris sees that as his door. We know from the previews that Chris and AMi bond this episode, probably because of the Reward Challenge. After the RC Ami is wearing Chris' hat which is a clue that they become closer this ep. We also know tha ONE survivor makes a last ditch plea to change the vote. So, what if Scout runs her mouth to Chris, Chris turns around and makes a last minute plea to Ami and rats out Scout. Ami, just like with Lisa, decides that Scout has to go and Chris/Ami/LeeAnn/Eliza/julie all vote out Scout.


If Chris were to do this without telling Chad it would also match up with Sarge's comments that the two guys need to separate to make it in the game.

This would also work under the surpise title because if those 5 banded together to get rid of Scout it would definitley be a surpise if LeeAnn went the next week.



So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... DRONES 11-17-04 1
 What if... KObrien_fan 11-17-04 2
   RE: What if... Nashter 11-17-04 3
   Episode title smokedog 11-17-04 6
   Scout sorgee 11-17-04 18
       RE: Scout RudyRules 11-17-04 27
 RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... cuon10 11-17-04 4
 RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... sylvester 11-17-04 5
   RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... Brownroach 11-17-04 17
   Damn Sylvester.... shakes the clown 11-17-04 28
       RE: Damn Sylvester.... sylvester 11-18-04 38
           RE: Damn Sylvester.... emydi 11-18-04 39
           RE: Damn Sylvester.... ShadyLady 11-18-04 40
           RE: Damn Sylvester.... Brownroach 11-18-04 41
 RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... smokedog 11-17-04 7
 Counterpoint FesterFan1 11-17-04 8
   RE: Counterpoint Brownroach 11-17-04 9
       RE: Counterpoint FesterFan1 11-17-04 10
           RE: Counterpoint aethelstan 11-17-04 12
           RE: Counterpoint MDSkinner 11-17-04 16
   RE: Counterpoint emydi 11-17-04 13
   uhm Fes.... shakes the clown 11-17-04 29
       "L" is for "Loser" FesterFan1 11-18-04 36
           Need we remind you... Brownroach 11-18-04 37
 I Concede... KObrien_fan 11-17-04 11
   RE: I Concede... emydi 11-17-04 14
 RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... txmomma26 11-17-04 15
 RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... speedyforme 11-17-04 19
   RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... emydi 11-17-04 20
       RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... speedyforme 11-17-04 21
           RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... emydi 11-17-04 23
               Second thoughts about Twila Brownroach 11-17-04 24
                   RE: Second thoughts about Twila emydi 11-17-04 25
   RE: Meet your two boot candidates..... pinchy 11-17-04 22
 Scout doesn't really need 5 players Oscirus 11-17-04 26
 Snewser boot pick is up.... smokedog 11-18-04 30
 Good Job Shakes! volsfan 11-18-04 31
   RE: Good Job Shakes! Brownroach 11-18-04 32
       RE: Good Job Shakes! volsfan 11-18-04 34
   RE: Good Job Shakes! pinchy 11-18-04 33
   RE: Good Job Shakes! Owlster 11-18-04 35
 Gotta be Chad idiotcowboy 11-18-04 42

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 05:11 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
MB is pushing to hard in the promos to show that there is no pagonging. He's showing all of the wheeling dealing which is just smoke and mirrors. Chris is shown prominantly in the previews while Chad is conveniently hidden. I've been leaning towards a Chad boot and this is more evidence to push me in that direction.

DRONES

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 06:47 AM (EST)
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2. "What if..."
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 06:55 AM (EST)

But what if next weeks episode title has nothing to do with the bootee, but has to do with a surprise twist that rocks this game? We haven't been shown any twists this season- except for the double boot episode which really wasn't much of a twist.

The title this week is "Culture Shock and Violent Storms" What if that also is a play on the way the person gets booted this week? Violent storms is symbolic of the backstabbing and betrayal that will occur, and Culture Shock could be a reference to the shock boot of Ami, the leader of the female alliance. It would sure be a shock to Ami, who feels very much in power.

I also don't think that the women turning on each other next week if only one man left would be deemed as that much of a surprise, IMO. It has to happen at some point, I believe the guys have got to be a part of it.


2004 A S S Trivia Champ

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Nashter 35 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 08:14 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: What if..."
Could the surprise be Ami winning immunity twice when she's the target?
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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 10:00 AM (EST)
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6. "Episode title"
>But what if next weeks episode
>title has nothing to do
>with the bootee, but has
>to do with a surprise
>twist that rocks this game?

The precedent of a similar title was in Thailand's "A Big Surprise...then another". That episode (6 players left..Jake booted) had the family members come out for the RC, then return for the IC. Credit: FesterFan

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sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 12:20 PM (EST)
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18. "Scout"
I think that someone coud successfully argue that Scout is the person on the women's tribe, and now the combined tribe, that set the norms for the tribe and has been a major factor in developingthe tribe culture. If she were to go, I think it would literally change the culture of the tribe. The group dynamics would be shot.


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RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 09:17 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Scout"
Very valid point sorgee.
I was thinking much the saem myself.

Your 2003 College Football Pool Ultimate Prize Winner!

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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 09:29 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
Yea, but here is the thing. If you have noticed, on a couple of different recent episodes you see small indications that Chris and Ami already have some sort of alliance going on. Most of these people on this survivor are playing the game. I think most of them see that something is going on. And they are not completely dumb. A person like Ami is not saving first for anyone except herself and she is the strongest female and the female with the second strongest will. I don't think they will all follow her this go round. Why? Because she and Eliza are close and there is not another female besides LeAnne that seems to care all that much for Eliza. If you get to close to the final 6 and final 4 with someone like Eliza or Ami, you may screw yourself. I see Eliza going this week or Ami. But there are also the rumors that Jeff Probst and Julie are dating and I am also guessing she goes soon. I do not see MB allowing JP to date a finalist because of reasons that could cause a lawsuit or a "fixed,rigged" publicity.
Besides, I think that the alliances are going more like this: Ami,Chris,Eliza and then Twila,Chad,Scout, with Julie and Leanne kind of on the fence and probably thinking they are in control with swing votes. They have already said that they would let Scout have 5th place. Which would indicate a Leanne, Julie, Ami, Twila final four. They think they can outsmart Twila and she would be no threat at the end. Anyone who is smart would take Scout to the final 3 or 4 because the final challenge is usually endurance and she would most likely not make it.
That would set up for a possible Julie boot this week and Leanne next week. When it gets this close, people go for the one that thinks they are the biggest swing. Chad and Twila are already ready to see Julie gone. Eliza was snubbed by Julie last week. I think that Chad and Leanne are the under the radar people with Leanne's storyline developing because of the impending boot.
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 09:51 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
"The way I see it, there are only two possible bootees this week, metal leg and plastic knee."

Shakes, the way I see it the only 2 boot candidates this week are Ami & Julie.

"First, the obvious answer is that spoiling history has taught us that the previews are basically all mis-direction so that in and of itself should tip us off to the fact that the pagonging is going to continue."

Last week, Sarge was featured heavily in the promos, unhappy & angry around camp. You said Sarge would be booted since he was featured heavily and it was obvious the first 15 minutes would revolve around Sarge's boot set-up. How is this week different? The promos are loaded with Scout/Chad/Chris plotting against Ami and/or the most useless person around camp. Last week, 5 to 3 was shoved down our throats. This week, just small mentions of will the women's alliance crumble.

"Second, lets look at what would have to happen for Scout's plan to work. If Scout were to enact a plan with the guys to topple the Ami&Co alliance she would need both guys, Twila and either Julie or Eliza. You could say what about a tie vote, but there is NO WAY either Scout or Twila are going to put themselves in the purple rock position when they don't have to...that's just plain asinine and it won't happen."

Actually, all they need is a 3 way split to avoid a tie, 4 vote Ami, 3 vote Chad, 1 vote Eliza/anybody else. Also, we don't know what the tie breaking mechanism is now, but I'm not convinced that the survivors DON'T know. Perhaps they know the PROD isn't used. I don't think a tie is out of the question anyway.

"First, I don't see any scenario where Julie joins up with the guys, Scout and Twila."

Well, Julie may have a shaky final 4 deal with Leann, but if she jumps to the C/C/S/T alliance, she'd be 5th with 4 people that have proven to be challenge goats. She also had a final 2 pact with Chris, and she did slyly include Chris into the agreement with Leann (Chris over Eliza). If I was Julie, I'd look at jumping as a way to possibly go on an IC run.

The same goes for Eliza. She has to notice that Julie is worming her way up the food chain with the women, and she knows she was first burnt in last week's RC. Eliza is nothing if not paranoid. She could very well assess her IC possibilities as much better with C/C/S/T. She may dislike Scout & Twila, but that girl wants to win, and she's not above jumping ship to do it.

"Also, next week's ep is called Suprise, and surpise again."
Well, the boards were thrown for a loop in the Rory boot episode by the title of the next week's ep., 'Gender Wars'. Everyone thought a woman had to go to make the title appropriate, when in fact the next week's title came from Rory's own post-boot quote. Surprise & Surprise again could easily come from THIS week's boot, followed by another surprise, Leann's boot next week.

"Chad is DEFINITELY gone this episode."

No way is Chad gone this episode. The male pagonging stopped with Sarge, camp has already shaken up, and Scout is too smart to not make her coup attempt successful. They've purposefully kept Scout UTR in the editing, because they're gonna start showing her now masterfully rising up to defeat the women's alliance. It's gonna be a surprise to the average viewer.

If a man was going this week, CBS would be shoving the 6-2 down our throats, and they're not.

I'm siding with KO on this one, Ami is gone, unless something happens (like IC), and they can't get to Ami, and then Julie is gone. Flame away Shakes, lol, I've always had a fear of clowns, but I don't buy your conclusions.

Sylvester (just call me CAT)

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 12:07 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
Last week, Sarge was featured heavily in the promos, unhappy & angry around camp. You said Sarge would be booted since he was featured heavily and it was obvious the first 15 minutes would revolve around Sarge's boot set-up. How is this week different? The promos are loaded with Scout/Chad/Chris plotting against Ami and/or the most useless person around camp.

The difference is that the Sarge and Rory promos didn't overtly paint them either as targets or as plotting to get someone else booted. They were just complaining about their respective situations.

When an actual plot against someone is showcased in the previews, you can take it to the bank that it's misdirection. Plus, plotting normally comes later in the episode and is not part of the early boot set-up that the Shakes theory refers to.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 11:18 PM (EST)
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28. "Damn Sylvester...."
>I'm siding with KO on this
>one, Ami is gone,


...I wish you would've put that part at the beginning of your post instead of the end cause then I would've known right away that you know essentially nothing about spoiling this show and I could've skipped the rest of the crap you wrote.


Anyone who thinks Ami is gone loses all spoiling credibility as far as I am concerned. That's a HUGE "red flag" and sirens instantly go off along with a message over the loudspeaker screaming "DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME READING ANYTHING THIS PERSON POSTS ON THIS FORUM FROM NOW ON" But, don't worry, the group you just joined isn't very exclusive...you won't get lonely.



So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04

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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 12:07 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Damn Sylvester...."
"you know essentially nothing about spoiling this show"

Well, I didn't get my degree in spoiling, I admit. Perhaps you could direct me to the correct institution of higher learning that offers classes in Survivor spoiling?


"DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME READING ANYTHING THIS PERSON POSTS ON THIS FORUM FROM NOW ON"

I expect no flame in retribution for this post Shakes, since you obviously have chosen not to read what I post.

In my defense, I would remind you that I was the first person to vote for Sarge last week, when everyone one else was looking elsewhere.

I'm a vidcap analyzer, that's where I try to add to the discussion and bring up small items that might otherwise be overlooked. I do not have inside info, nor do I claim to be perfect.

Maybe you, in your infinite wisdom, should do all the posting on this board, after all, it's all about you Shakes, it's all about you.

Sylvester (just call me CAT)

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 01:26 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Damn Sylvester...."
Maybe you, in your infinite wisdom, should do all the posting on this board, after all, it's all about you Shakes, it's all about you.

CAT, you figured out Shakes...but don't stop posting (you'll only fuel his fire)

And I know my friend Shakes lumps me in here...

But, don't worry, the group you just joined isn't very exclusive...you won't get lonely.

After all I let my love/lust of bald men (I think Fester really does relate to Chad also which explains his Ami vote this week ) blind my usual somewhat coherent spoiling/analysis ability...ask VS..she'll vouch for me


Handcrafted by RollDdice

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ShadyLady 21 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 01:47 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Damn Sylvester...."
Cat,
If there is an educational institution for spoiling then "He who must not me named on this board" apparently skipped the class on "class." I am new but enjoy your insights so much. We are all just stating an opinion here, aren't we? Keep plugging away, you are lots of fun to read and have great insight to share.

S~Lady

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 02:11 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Damn Sylvester...."
I guess you didn't get a degree in counterflaming either. Anyone else would have pointed out the Clown's oversight: you said you thought the only 2 boot possibilities were Ami and Julie at the very start of your post.

Therefore you *did* spare him the necessity of reading further if he didn't want to.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 10:03 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
>The way I see it, there
>are only two possible bootees
>this week, metal leg and
>plastic knee.

Wish we could include motor mouth

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 10:06 AM (EST)
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8. "Counterpoint"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 10:52 AM (EST)

That's a very convincing argument for a Chad or Scout boot, although I think Scout's much more likely to go than Chad, but I really don't think it will work out that way.

First things first...

I agree 100% with your logic on Scout needing 5 to succeed in her coup attempt and Julie or Eliza being needed to accomplish it. I also agree that Julie would sooner swallow her own tongue than join up with Scout and Twila over Eliza, Leeann, and Ami. So she's out. But Eliza...?

would Elzia be willing to team up with Scout, who she hates?

Not on an even playing field, she wouldn't. However, she's already gone against her core alliance to save her own neck once in this game. The scenario where Eliza would join up with the Redneck & Prosthetic alliance is if they make her believe she's the target. This is no stretch, since she already feels she's #1 on the hit list of Scout and Twila. MB even set this story arc up last week when Eliza went on and on at TC about how she was the only woman who packed her bags. She feels threatened, and it wouldn't take much to convince her she's in serious jeopardy.

Once they convince her of that, she'll do exactly what she did in E2, which is give them a majority (or agree to throw her vote away on Chris or Twila) if they target Ami instead of her. In my scenario, Julie wins immunity, Scout puts her lot in with the men, Twila agrees to do the same *if* she can be assured of a majority vote, and Chris does his work on Eliza. That is your scenario where Eliza turns on the Ami/Leeann/Julie bloc.

Why do I think it will work out that way?

1) Jeff Probst's quote about what made the second half of the show interesting was that core alliances splintered. He's smart enough to realize that it doesn't count as "splintering" if they eventually have to cannibalize. That's the inevitable conclusion of an alliance. Also, he said "second half", not last third, or last days, or any of that. "Second half" pretty much started last week. The window is closing for that quote's relevance.

2) If Scout or Chad go this week, I can't imagine a scenario where Leeann goes next week. I just can't. Even *if* the women's alliance shatters next week, why, out of all the possible targets we've been given, would Leeann go next? She'd be at least 4th in line behind Ami, Eliza, and Julie. She's done her damnedest to be UTR. She's not a threat. She's not disagreeable. How on earth would she go next?

3) "Surprise", you say? I say family visit. This title is too close to the title in S5 ("A Big Surprise...and Another"), where they had the family visit, and then the family members stuck around for the IC, to be coincidental. I believe we're going to have a rehashing of that particular mini-twist.

4) First, the obvious answer is that spoiling history has taught us that the previews are basically all mis-direction so that in and of itself should tip us off to the fact that the pagonging is going to continue.

This is true, BUT every season MB gives us at least one jury boot on a silver platter, and, if memory serves, it's usually an early jury member. And every season, the spoiling community slaps its collective forehead and says "How did we miss that one?" I think that's exactly what he's doing here.

This Ami boot has been set up for weeks. First it was Rory who wanted her gone, but couldn't do it. Then it was Rory, Sarge, and the boys who wanted her gone, and thought they had her. Then, last week, she wins immunity, and Sarge is foiled. Finally, the women see the light, and turn on the Queen Bee.

No, as compelling as your arguments are, I think this week's boot is Ami. It's gotta be her or Scout, and I'm betting on her.

Fester

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 10:33 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Counterpoint"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 11:57 AM (EST)

Sorry, Fester, I just don't see how five votes against Ami can happen. Neither Julie nor Eliza is going to be interested in joining Scout's camp. To my mind, the five deciding votes at TC must come from Ami, Leann, Julie, Eliza and Chris, meaning one of Chad, Scout and Twila has to go.

Chad could ultimately get pulled into a vote against Scout or Twila, and similarly Twila could get pulled in to a vote against Chad.

Scout seems most likely to wind up out of the loop at the end, so it could very well be her week. I do think that from her editing through the show it seems like a strange time for her to go, but whatever... Her conflict with Eliza has been brewing for weeks and last week Eliza made a concerted plea to Ami to get her out.

Also, Ami's pretty decisive about what she wants to do -- when she made up her mind not to boot Rory in the Lisa ep she never wavered on it afterward.

Now this week she has two comments about not trusting the women and starting to vote them off. If she's heading in that direction does it seem likely that she would change her mind later and go back to voting for one of the guys? I'm not sure I see it. Plus she will have bonded somewhat with Chad and Chris on the reward trip, with Eliza tagging along for company.

I agree with Shakes -- Scout and Chad are the prime candidates, with Twila hovering in the background as a third choice. I'm leaning toward Scout now. The retracted family visit spoiler may have some merit after all.

Edited to also respond to:

2) If Scout or Chad go this week, I can't imagine a scenario where Leeann goes next week. I just can't. Even *if* the women's alliance shatters next week, why, out of all the possible targets we've been given, would Leeann go next?

If Scout goes this week I can imagine a scenario where Leann goes next week. Leann talked to Julie about Eliza being lazy and wanting to vote her out early. If this continues and Eliza gets wind of being in fourth place in that crew, now that Scout is out of the picture she could switch and vote with Chad, Chris and Twila to get rid of Leann or Ami. Leann probably would go because primary target Ami has immunity.

It is more difficult to get to a Leann boot next week if Chad leaves now, imo. But anything can happen, as we know...


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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 10:50 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Counterpoint"
Again, a Scout boot makes more "Occam's Razor" sense, but there are more things sticking out for me against a Scout boot than for one. First, if Scout goes, the women stay intact, Twila recedes into her shell not wanting to rock the boat, and the men get Pagonged. End of story. That's not really my idea of "splintering". If Scout goes, there's NO WAY Leeann goes next, short of the "lava burn" rumor that keeps floating around, or the stupidest move in Survivor history. The only thing that gives me pause about Scout's safety this week is the family visit info about her companion not coming. Still, they live on a ranch. It's possible she couldn't get away. It's also possible that Scout would've wanted her sister, or another family member, to visit instead of her companion. It's just too iffy for me to base this week's boot on that alone.

Also, I don't believe for one second that Chad goes this week. It doesn't jive with JP's quote, it wouldn't lead to Leeann's boot next week, and there is absolutely NO setup for it in the editing. This week is being framed as a showdown between Ami and Scout, and that's what it will be.

Fester

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11-17-04, 10:59 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Counterpoint"
Ah but.... If it is Scout that goes, would that not count as a splintering of an alliance? Scout and Ami have always been portrayed as the instigators of the all-women-alliance (AWA).

Moreover, with Scout (whom Eliza hates) gone, this will actually make it easier for Eliza to switch camps and side with Twila, Chris and Chad to topple Ami. She may even take Julie with her. Unfortunately (Suprise!) Ami wins immunity which means that they have to target the UTR player, Leann (Surprise again!), as she is Ami's closest ally.


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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 11:31 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Counterpoint"
Fester, I think you make some good points, though Shakes argument does seem more solid. But one thing that you said here that I think actually supports Shakes theory more than your own is

"This week is being framed as a showdown between Ami and Scout, and that's what it will be."

See BS Misdirection at it's finest here, I would say. The previews have definitely set up a Scout and Ami showdown, which means that if it came to tribal and that is the way it went down, the "general public" would not be surprised. The way I see it, this showdown is definitely not happening this week. Plus, Ami has been edited to be the villain, and this is far too early for the Queen to be knocked off her perch.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 11:01 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Counterpoint"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 11:29 AM (EST)

Shakes, you do make very compelling arguments and what you've laid out are all the things I'm struggling with with the possibility of an Ami boot (esp. Scout's "We have to get Ami" quote) but I have to side here with...... you...dammit!!!



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et completely change my post...dammit...

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 11:22 PM (EST)
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29. "uhm Fes...."
>No, as compelling as your arguments
>are, I think this week's
>boot is Ami. It's
>gotta be her or Scout,
>and I'm betting on her.
>

....I'm gonna give you a free pass on that one, just gonna mark it down as a temporary case of of temporary insanity, temporarily. I'm just gonna try to forget that you actually thought Ami was going this week...I suggest you do the same.


So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 11:52 AM (EST)
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36. ""L" is for "Loser""
You're far too kind, Shakes. It's time to come clean and admit that I totally suck at this spoiling business. Bashing's a hell of a lot easier, and it's where my stoopid ass belongs.

This is me, lurking for the rest of the season.

Fester
Hey, I was right about Sarge though. Yeah, and Al Leiter got a hit...once.

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11-18-04, 11:59 AM (EST)
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37. "Need we remind you..."
...that you were the first to call the Sarge boot last week (even before Shakes did)?


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11-17-04, 10:56 AM (EST)
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11. "I Concede..."
I am convinced that Chad will be booted this week and the pagoning will then end with him as Chris staves off the women as the sole man.

Sorry Emy!


2004 A S S Trivia Champ

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 11:04 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: I Concede..."
Ha--what??


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txmomma26 5825 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 11:12 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
I think it's going to be between Scout and Chris with Scout gone this week. Think back, Scout organized the women's alliance. She pushed long and hard to get the women to stick together after the merge, while splintering her own alliance. She and Sarge were the two cheifs. Sarge is gone, the men are scrambling and who wants to hook up with the old lady who can't do anything, including sing? There's almost no one on her side at this point except for Twila. If Twila would pull her head out of her butt and realize it's time to play the game, she'd see that she's in the minority and team up with the guys again. Unfortunately, that is only a third of the tribe at this point.

It's the second half of the game and everyone's starting to look out for themselves. No one wants to carry anyone who can't share the workload and help make it to the final four.

As for the reward speculation involving family - there's no way it's happening this week's episode. They just got the letters from home. It will be the week of Thanksgiving. What better way to unite the tribe members and mislead all of the viewing audience than air the family episode on the day we give thanks for family?


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speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 12:47 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
I agree, and to add to your point, I see AMI going on a immunity run for a few more episodes...

this week she wins, so everyone votes off Scout/Chad as you say and then
AMI wins again the following week and of course, everyone votes off AMI's closest ally, Leanne....finally, AMI doesnt win and of course Chris says to the women "she's a Darrah, immunity threat" and voila, they all vote off AMI finally...leaving

Eliza, Chris, Julie and possibly Chad/Scout depending on who goes this week...

and maybe on a limb...Eliza and Chris in final 2

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11-17-04, 01:18 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
So does Twila go at F5 or did you forget about her


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speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 02:39 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
haha, i was counting the people and i knew i was missing someone...

hm...

not sure how it would turn out....

but im pretty sure CHRIS and ELIZA will be final 2

dont kno how...

maybe Chad, Chris and Eliza vote off Twila and Julie

maybe Scout, Chris and Twila vote off Julie but Eliza makes it farther than expected...

not too sure....the final 5 gets kinda wishy-washy since relationships and alliances change so fast in teh final 5 sometimes...hehe

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 03:40 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Scout"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 04:04 PM (EST)

I have never hopped on the Chris/Twila F2 bandwagon...I think Twila's indecisiveness (as opposed to Chris Eliza Scout and even Julie's ability to be decisive (or at least appear more decisive) will be her downfall at F5 (or possibly at F4 with Julie taking the other spot)

But I see a Chris/Eliza F2 as a definite possibility with Scout being kept til then bc she is not an immunity threat...she will not last very long at all in F3 endurance IC (neither will Chris with his feet) and Eliza will win and of course take Chris--he's a man and Scout is too "well liked" and too different from Eliza...Chris and Eliza are cut from the same cloth so she's hoping she wins it bc there will be 2 men and 5 women (with one being very pro woman) on the jury.


ETA: However, I think that, in bitter irony, Chris will win this thing (yes Katie I said it....) Hee will have the votes of Sarge and Chad no question. Scout will vote for Chris bc she hates Eliza and Eliza will have most likely been the one to boot her at F3.

Ami, Leann will vote Eliza

Julie (depending on how her boot goes down and if Eliza backstabs her) will vote Eliza most likely

Therefore, it comes down to Twila's vote...I think Chris has her vote to lose and he will be smart enough to make it look like Eliza, et al were the reason for her boot, even if he was instrumental in getting rid of her.

So in this case...when it is 6-1 women-man advantage...somehow Chris comes out with a win...

I love irony...


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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 03:58 PM (EST)
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24. "Second thoughts about Twila"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 04:08 PM (EST)

emy,

I did think there was a very good chance that Twila's indecisiveness, or at least a perceived indecisiveness, would get her into trouble this week. Mostly because of circumstantial evidence: the frowns she drew from Ami and Leann at TC; Sarge naming her as someone who has what it takes to win; plus the misdirection that a person's indecisiveness (probably Twila's, I thought) would be utilized by a tribemate -- which reeked of Rob C using Christy's indecisiveness to get her booted in S6.

Plus, in terms of storyline, she's had a complete enough one to be a suitable boot this week.

However, if Twila makes it past this week's TC (and I now think she probably will), I don't see this being an issue again. There are going to be shakeups coming with the Leann boot and I think Twila will be safe and able to maneuver for awhile.


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 04:09 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Second thoughts about Twila"
I agree with you BR on Twila this week. However, she was put into a bad situation by Sarge's TC speech. Everyone has her on their radar now as someone who vacillates (imo). She is part of the shake up in the next few weeks with Scout and Chris but I do not see her (editing, her lack of real "deceit" as opposed to Chris/Eliza/Julie way of playing the game) as going to the end game imo..she goes at F5 or F4. I see her being a pawn something akin to Butch in Amazon..


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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 02:48 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Meet your two boot candidates....Chad and Julie"
I think Leeann wins immunity (if Chad does not) and Julie is the second boot candidate. Leann and Julie have given their alliances some cause for question after openly bonding at the RC last ep. Leeann's quote about Ami winning iC and Leann winning RC's is reversed (irony). Often the IC winner is THE NEXT to go.
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Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-04, 07:38 PM (EST)
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26. "Scout doesn't really need 5 players"
She only needs her original 4. If Scout can succed in getting Eliza in throwing a vote her way it could work too. We all know that she can't stand Scout and I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be that hard for Scout to push Eliza into doing that.
Id say Julie gets the boot after Ami win immunity.


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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 00:18 AM (EST)
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30. "Snewser boot pick is up...."
I guess it makes sense now that it has been spelled out for me
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11-18-04, 09:17 AM (EST)
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31. "Good Job Shakes!"
Well, if Snewser is right and Chad gets the boot, this is the worse pagonging since season 1! And IMHO...the worst season ever! URGH!

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 10:52 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Good Job Shakes!"
Actually, vols, the last complete pagonging was in Thailand, S5. And with Chad out, there's still one dude left and it's not over till the fat lady sings as they say...

Mucho kudos to Shakes and VerucaSalt for zeroing in on a Chad boot from the beginning.


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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 11:01 AM (EST)
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34. "RE: Good Job Shakes!"
Maybe I should have said that it was the worse pagonging for me! Don't ask my why...but I liked porno Brian and how he played everyone! I just don't like Ami so I guess that is why I am upset about it!

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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 10:55 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Good Job Shakes!"
Don't woory, Chris will somehow escape the pagonging and end up in the final 2, that will make things somewhat interesting.
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Owlster 49 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 11:37 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Good Job Shakes!"
This could have been the most predictable Survivor ever, but the editing has been superior IMO. Editing has given us members of the spoilers community a lot to think about. We've come up with much good discussion and many great theories of how things will happen. But, in the end, it has been pretty much simple pagonging. We online "players" are playing a much better strategic game than the real players. This has been great fun for me
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-04, 02:15 PM (EST)
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42. "Gotta be Chad"
All the editing points to Chad. The promo's especially the cross promo on TAR highlighted the implosion of the women's alliance with the tell-tell tag line of "will it crumble?"... which of course is always, NO.

So how do we get from there to a LeAnn boot next week is the only real delimia. That too isn't too hard though, as you point out Chris looks to be getting chummy with Ami, and given his "I'll burn them if I can comment" I expect next week he is given that option. Maybe when his new buddy Ami decides to off Scout instead of him, or maybe when Julie sees the chance to improve her position, but somehow I'm betting Chris winds up as the odd numbered vote and he gets to fry his new "immune or it would be her" buddy, Ami. Which would make all the editing and professions come true all in one fell swoop.

-ICB

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