CONFESSIONAL COUNT ALINTA TRIBE
..............EP1
EP2
EP3
EP4
EP5
EP6
EP7
EP8
EP9
TOTAL
Chad
..2
..0
..0
..1
..1
..1
..3
..3
..0
..11
Scout
.3
..1
..0
3
..0
..1
..1
2
..2
..13
Leeann
.3
..1
..1
..2
..1
..2
..0
..0
..3
..13
Julie
1
..1
..0
..2
..1
..3
..2
..2
..2
..14
Ami
.1
..1
..0
..1
..5
..1
..2
..2
..2
..15
Chris
..4
..2
..0
..2
..0
..1
..1
..6
..4
..20
Twila
..2
..2
..2
..1
..1
..4
2
..4
..4
..22
Eliza
6
..3
..3
..5
..2
..0
..2
..3
..4
..28
Lea
.4
..0
..2
..2
..2
..5
..2
..7
..5(Boot)
29
Rory
3
..2
..1
..6
..2
..6
..7
..6(Boot)
33
Merge
John K
..1
..0
..4
..1
..2
..0
..6(boot)
14
Lisa
.1
..0
..1
..2
..1
..3(boot)
8
Travis
.3
..2
..0
..2
..4(boot)
11
Brady
.4
..0
..0
..5(Boot)
9
Mia
..3
..1
..4(Boot)
8
John P
..2
..1
..4(Boot)
7
Dolly
..1
..4(Boot)
5
Brooke
.5(Boot)
5
BOOT PATTERN
The editing pattern of hiding the next episodes boot changed after the merge. Notice that both Rory and Sarge had increased confessionals and face time in both the episode leading up to their boot and the boot episode it self.
This may be the post merge boot pattern, because the boots from here on will be on the jury and a clear understanding of the circumstances surrounding their boot will play an important role when the jury members ultimately casts their vote for the winner.
NARRATORS
As expected, the narrator role carried Rory and Lea through to the merge, but since their departure new narrators have emerged. In the past, the post merge narrators have been destined to make it to the final four, but not the winner.
It appears that Chris, Twila and Eliza are in line to inherit the narrator roles from Rory and Sarge.
CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT
Based on confessional count, Chad has had the least development of the remaining contestants, but notice that more than half of his confessionals have come since the merge.
Chris has also had half of his confessionals in the last two episodes. His development is either because he will be a main character/narrator destined for the final four, or a confessional spike like that of Rory and Sarge prior to their departure.
Twila and Eliza have both had thorough development, and are either emerging as main characters or wrapping up their stories.
Leann had what should be considered a confessional spike. This is apparently the beginning of her swan song leading to her departure in EP11. It will be interesting to notice if she is hidden leading up to her boot or featured as were Rory and Sarge.
Ami, Julie and Scout have had steady confessionals and development since the merge. Their departure this week is not predictable based solely on the confessional analysis.
CONCLUSIONS:
This week there are two possible scenarios:
Most of the women stick together and vote out one of the men. In that scenario, confessional analysis is inconclusive. Chad has had a spike in confessionals since the merge, but was completely hidden last week. His boot would fit the classic pre-merge pattern weve seen so far. Chris, on the other hand, has had a confessional pattern more like that of Rory/Sarge and would fit the post merge pattern weve observed so far.
If on the other hand, Scout, Twila and Julie vote with the men, then the target based on confessional count is Eliza. Her confessional pattern follows the post merge boot pattern of Rory/Sarge, and her character development is already complete.
If you take some of the other spoilers into consideration, Chriss considerable weight loss suggests he may stick around to the end, in which case his confessional count may indicate a main character that willl take over as narrator until the F4. An edit much like Kathy in Survivor Marquesas.
Chad has had the least development and may very well be this seasons Zoe or Darrah, but he seems much more articulate. I dont think his story is over yet. He may still be under the radar.
That would leave Eliza as the most likely boot this week, based on the confessional count and character development.
Guess well have to wait and see
Krautboy
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