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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios..."
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-01-04, 11:18 AM (EST)
 
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"EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios..." |
The rumor that Julie is safe this week was apparently confirmed when Snewser removed Julie’s name! TDT has also added Julie back to the list of possible jurors.Let’s wipe the slate clean and revisit out speculation about who is the most likely merge boot. Many were uncomfortable with Julie as a merge boot because she didn’t really fit the traditional profile, and now it appears that they were right to have doubts. I for one tried to force the information to fit the Julie Spoiler, but it’s time to rethink all the other scenarios…
Krautboy
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-01-04, 11:36 AM (EST)
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2. "Scenario #1 - Ami" |
I have to think that the most likely merge boot is Ami. There continues to be focus on the men vs. women theme. Chris is seen in a promo confessional talking about picking the women off one by one. Last week, Ami confirmed that her goal is to keep the women's alliance together to the end, and she foolishly made that clear to Rory. Traditionally, the strongest immunity challenge threat is the merge boot. Ami is the strongest of the women, and Rory is very aware that she is the actual leader of Yasur. It appears that Sarge may in fact win individual immunity due to the pic of him with a hoop in his hand as they prepare to leave for TC.
Ami then, has no immunity. I am inclined to think that Sarge would have been the first boot choice for the women. Since they cannot target him, Rory may be their first target, assuming (correctly I think) that he will go back to the men after merge. I still see a bond forming between Scout & Chad after merge, and don't believe Scout will allow him to be the boot choice. So, we have Lopevi targeting Ami, and Yasur targeting Rory. I will assume the core vote will be: Ami, Leann, Scout, Eliza vote Rory Sarge, Chad, Chris, Rory vote Ami Leaving Twila and Julie as the swing votes. Will they stick with Lopevi, or go back to the women? I believe they stick with Lopevi, and Ami is gone. They were given up for dead when they were thrown to the men, and with Julie doing everything in her power to charm Sarge, and Twila too with the nudity shown, they have to think their chances are better with the men. So, I am leaning towards an Ami boot. Makes alot more sense than a Julie boot.
 Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-01-04, 11:50 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Scenario #1 - Ami" |
A few other things to ponder...The EP9 Title “Gender Wars” makes much more sense if it’s 5 women vs 4 men, than if it’s 6 women vs. 3 men. The EP9 title suggests a woman goes this week.
 
These two confessionals, included with the IC promo feature, Ami, the strategic leader of the women and Chris the strategic leader of the men discussing voting the women off one by one.
Is Ami the logical target of the men? Is Chris the logical target of the women? In light of Julie possibly sticking around this week, we now have 3 voting blocks…the women of Yasur: 4 votes. The men including Rory: 4 votes. And the swing votes Twila and Julie: 2 votes. Julie’s been very friendly with Sarge, Twila feels comfortable with the men, it wouldn’t be hard for them to get rid of one of the women and still have the option of uniting with them the following week if the wanted to.
 
These shots, the last two images from one of this weeks promos, may be forshadowing the importance of Ami winning immunity, but the look on her face could be that of a second place finisher…the immunity idol just out of reach…
Sylvester may be right, Ami appears to be the most vulnerable this week.
Krautboy
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-01-04, 12:20 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Scenario #1 - Ami" |
"Twila and Julie improve their positions with both factions if they help to boot Rory this week: 1) they don't appear to go against the other women, and b) they don't allow Rory to insinuate himself into a better position than they have in the Lopevi alliance. "BR, I don't agree that Twila and Julie would improve their positions by voting against Lopevi. Sarge never liked Rory, and has promised his final four spot to Twila. I don't see Sarge as a manipulator, i.e., I believe if he promised it, he meant it. I would think Twila would believe she has a better shot with the men than she does with the women, and that she at least hopes that Rory and Julie are 5th and 6th in the pecking order. Ami/Leann/Scout have presented themselves as a united front, even back when Twila was on Yasur. Twila couldn't belive they kept Eliza over Bubba, and has to be suspicious that Eliza is now solidly with the other 3. She does no better than 5th with the women then. Twila is all about 'keeping the muscle', and has to believe the men have a better chance of winning immunities and dragging her along. There was also the conversation between Twila and Sarge in the woods, with Sarge saying Julie would 'have to be a fool' to go against Lopevi after merge. As in, doing so would incur the wrath of the men. Julie's whole gameplan was to flirt with the men. If she goes back to the women, her game is over. She may know she's 5th in the pecking order, but she is probably 6th with the women. And if she helps get rid of Ami, she is then the physically strongest woman left, with a better shot at IC. Just my .02.  Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-01-04, 12:48 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Scenario #1 - Ami" |
>Those are good points, sylvester.
>But then how do we
>get to Gender Wars in
>Ep 9 if Twila and
>Julie decide to throw in
>their lot with Lopevi in
>Ep 8? Do they
>switch back? BR, could 'Gender Wars' refer to the men and the women fighting over Twila and Julie? I can see Twila & Julie being torn, after having helped oust Ami, with the remaining women trying to convince them that the men will stick together in the end. Meanwhile, the men are doing everything they can to keep Twila and Julie on their side. Certainly could be viewed as 'Gender Wars'.
Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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AMAZON 98 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-01-04, 11:55 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios..." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 01:19 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 11:56 AM (EST) Didn't this same thing happen during the Pearl Islands when it was painfully obvious that Rhino was getting jettisoned but Snewser changed his pick to expose who the sheep were and who was really spoiling? Maybe I have the story wrong I can't remember exactly how that went down, but does anyone think the same thing is happening here?
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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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11-01-04, 11:58 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios..." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 12:16 PM (EST)Because next week's episode is called Gender Wars, then it follows that during that episode the genders will be as close to tied as possible. This means that we can expect a woman to be booted this week but who? Confessional analysis suggests that it could be someone who was 'hidden' last week after having some play before that. Leeann had no confessionals but Scout only had one while Ami, Twila, Julie and Eliza had 2. So, they were all hidden from that point of view. Storylines?
Eliza hasn't yet been shown as a 'villain' quite yet though maybe her early flip-flop was her story. Leeann hasn't had much of a story yet but did receive 4 votes early on. Is she a Zoe/Erin type boot? Ami has been getting an increasing amount of negative editing recently but as the main proponent of a guys vs. gals mentality, surely she would be a key person in next week's episode? Scout has been UTR most of the time and seems completely protected other than Eliza's comment that she wished that Scout weren't there. Twila's story of being more comfortable with the men has come to fruition. Is her story finished? Julie got the most promo time. OFG theory victim perhaps? Also, she isn't shown in an obvious misdirection (eg. two people having a big fight usually seems to mean that both are safe). She also still seems to be the most likely to be maybe too many alliances. Conclusion? Earlier this morning I thought that Lea could have been booted because he was relatively invisible last time and was getting some promo time. However, KB shows what really looks like the Immunity necklace in his hand and since he is using the 'war' metaphores, he should be involved in an episode called 'Gender Wars'. So, I'm back to square one. Julie still seems to me like a likely boot. Yet pretty much everyone else other than Scout wouldn't surprise me too much. It'll be interesting to see what transpires in the vote thread.
Mu hunch right now is, in fact, still Julie but perhaps it is just because I like Ami and am biased. Edited to add:
Twila may, in fact, be more vulnerable than we think. Julie was quickly able to determine that she had been granted a spot on the men's final four. If she is unable to keep her cards close to her chest, then she, like Dolly before her, may be in trouble. Moreover, it is possible that she is the one making too many deals. She has a deal with Julie, one with Sarge and maybe at the merge she starts making new overtures to Ami and/or Scout. All this could point to her downfall. 
©IceCat: the name says it all.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-04, 12:09 PM (EST)
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7. "Bebo's Quick and Dirty Boot Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 02:40 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 12:10 PM (EST) See that large grain of salt over there? Be sure to take it with this list. In yet another edition of Bebo's Wildass Speculation, I'll be breaking it down based on factors such as:
- II threat
- Alliance strength/position in alliance
- Spoiler info Things to remind myself at the start:
- Women outnumber the men 6-4.
- NuYasur and NuLopevi are even at 5-5.
- Remaining Young Men alliance - none. Four members of FatFive still in game - thanks for straightening me out here, Scarlett.
- Remaining Bowheads - 2 (Julie, Eliza) SAFE - Scout, Eliza Edited: I originally had Scout, Eliza, and Sarge safe due to a now-debunked family visit spoiler. However, I'll stand by my original conclusion for Scout and Eliza, while moving Sarge up just a bit in risk. Scout and Eliza are not II threats among the women - at this point, they look like the two least likely to win, so the others would want to keep them around to improve their own chances at winning the necklace.
FAIRLY SAFE - Twila, Chris, Chad, Leann, Lea
From a storyline standpoint, their stories haven't been told yet. Yes, there can always be the argument that folks are booted without having a storyline (Zoe and Erin being classic examples). But Twila and Chris have been too involved in the game for that to be a possibility, and Chad's leg gives him an inherent storyline that has not been properly exploited yet. We saw hints when John reminded us why Chad needs to be voted out by anyone hoping to win. But since the only person to try and target Chad has been voted out, I don't think it's his time yet. John said it well - Chad stays just UTR enough for there to be other targets. Sarge may have his grip on the II necklace this episode, based on preliminary spoiler analysis, which would make him safe. But even if he weren't immune, I would think there are much more likely targets among the men (Hello, Rory!). Besides, we've been shown Twila and Julie both working alliances with Sarge - if they're involved in any of the discussions on which man to boot first, I would think they'd want to steer folks towards the others to keep their position stronger in the game. Twila seems to be in a great alliance position right now - the female majority, and a Final Four alliance with the men. This could bite her in the long run, but for now both sides will want to see if they can use her before cutting her off.
I've moved Leann all over this list. She's part of the female majority, and she's not a major II threat compared to Ami and Julie. On the other hand, she is part of that core Yasur alliance, and if Ami wins immunity, Lopevi might vote together to take out a Yasur woman. Still, we're shown pictures of Leann conferring with Twila, which makes it appear that Twila would be less willing to target Leann. Since I'm not sure about her, I'll put her in this middle category, where I can see reasons she could go, but think there are bigger fish that would be fried ahead of her.
VULNERABLE - Ami, Rory, Julie
Yes, I know Snewser took Julie off the page. But she's a strong swimmer, which makes her one of the biggest II challenges among the women (and it could be argued she's a bigger threat than Ami). She's in the female majority, but since this bowhead hasn't had a chance to work her way back into the core alliance because of the switch, she may not be trusted. If they see her flirting with Sarge, they may not be open to trusting her. Contrary to what Twila believes, the Lopevi men did not offer Julie a Final Four deal, which shows she's 5th (at best) in their pecking order. Julie might think she's got a better chance going back to Yasur, since she would be more likely to improve her place in the game winning challenges if she's competing against Scout, Leann, and Eliza instead of Sarge, Chris, and Chad. If Twila finds out about her lie, she's lost her strongest ally in the game. If Ami wins II, I could see her being the next logical target for the men. Ami is the real leader of Yasur (despite Scout being the designated chief) and enough people know it to target her. She and Julie are the two biggest II threats among the women. Rory has already made it clear he wants to target her, and if he returns to the male alliance, they'd be happy to go along with that plan. The question is whether Ami wins II to spoil that chance for them. Rory is extremely vulnerable. The women have made it clear to him that he's a target, and he's shown he's a major II threat by his performance in recent challenges. The men have got to be wondering why Rory is still around and Lisa's gone - did Rory cut a deal? He was on the fringe of their alliance anyway. From a strict numbers standpoint, though, the men need him, and if Chad/Chris/Sarge and Twila can bring him back into the fold for a vote or two, they can work their way back into this game. Or do they even need him? I just keep going back to his quote, "If they vote me out, Yasur will burn." Yes, that might have just been isolated to the feelings in the past episode, but it could also be foreshadowing that Rory goes out, but the Yasur women still end up getting taken out. It would be Lopevi 5 to Yasur 4, and Julie and Twila might end up sticking with their new tribe. But as Krautboy points out, would the next episode be titled "Gender Wars" if the women hold a 6-3 advantage? So, right now I'm leaning toward Ami (if she doesn't win II), and Julie if Ami does win II, with Rory as a third choice. edited because speling iz not mi strong pnt edited again because counting isn't either, and neither is debunking spoilers - but at least I'm sticking with my initial top 3 list in that order   Please abide in my words, for my references speak of the truth that is within me.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-04, 12:31 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Bebo's Quick and Dirty Boot Analysis" |
Well, I'm not official on this forum, but I'd suggest starting a new thread, writing enough filler so it doesn't show up in the preview text (200 characters), and then spilling the beans.That way, the folks who are interested could find out, while the folks who don't want to know can just avoid that thread. Guess which category I fall into. Shouldn't be hard. Oh, I'll be blunt...spill it! Go 'head, tell us! Pretty please with sugar on top and a cherry. Please abide in my words, for my references speak of the truth that is within me.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-04, 12:32 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios..." |
Ever since Ami's outbursts at Lisa in Episodes 5 and 6, I've always considered Ami as a possible early boot after the merge.A few random thoughts -Ami might have shown her hand a little too early. Based on editing, I'd say it's Ami.
-We still have the spoiler that Scout, Eliza, and Rory's loved ones never traveled to Vanuatu. Granted we have one extra boot now before the traditional family visit, so it could very well be someone else.
-I like the idea that "Gender Wars" isn't a good title for a 6-3 split between men and women.
-Perhaps we should consider an Eliza boot in more detail. I noticed that she's been more UTR lately... Although she still doesn't fit the usual post-merge boot. I'll make a more detailed analysis later. I gotta go to class now.  
A 2003 PhoenixMons creation
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-04, 12:44 PM (EST)
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17. "I'm confused" |
-We still have the spoiler that Scout, Eliza, and Rory's loved ones never traveled to Vanuatu. I thought the spoiler said that Scout and Eliza's did have visitors, based on this thread: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5416.shtml Am I missing something? (Wouldn't be the first time, LOL.) Cause I used that thread as a basis for some of my analysis and would need to rethink. Please abide in my words, for my references speak of the truth that is within me.
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JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-01-04, 12:55 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios" |
Hmm, let's see, this is fun! Chad, Chris, Sarge are a pack, Sarge may have the IN. I don't think it is any of these three though I do think Sarge's personality may easily grate with Ami, later becoming one of the key players in setting up a "gender war." Twila seems to be fitting in well with the men and IMO still has some bonds with most of the women. She seems to have a good head on her shoulders, is playing the game and seems to be able to reign in her attitude and stay focused. Julie is still the bottom dog on nu-Lopevi, and was also low on the Yasur team. She is still in danger, and is expendable. It doesn't help that she is young and able bodied either. I think because they are showing Rory as his old grouchy self in the promos that this won't actually be a defining act quite yet. Rory will definitely have to play a middleman though to get through, neither Sarge/Chris or Ami trust him. I think he hangs by a thread once again (at least this week) and would be another great player in a "gender war" with his attitude. However, the title "gender war" does not necessarily mean they are even up, it could just mean that the woman's alliance is showing itself next episode, so Rory could be next as well. Scout and Leanne are not shown in the promos, kinda stink at challenges, and may not be viewed as a threat quite yet. Not high on the hit list, though to take one out by surprise would help to break up that alliance. I think the most nervous type to start making one-on-one pacts is Eliza. She has shown deteriorating mental weakness and prattling on and blaming others is not a good sign. She has shown an uneasy, follower attitude lately. Disappointing for a New Yorker! While Julie definitely has a lot to lose I think she has no other choice than to attempt to stick with the men and is less likely to be playing one-on-one games at this point. I suspect the Lopevi boys will be watching her like a hawk. To me, the most likely boots are the usual suspects, Eliza, Julie, and Rory.
 
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-04, 10:20 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios" |
Sera is playing games, has always played games and will continue to play games. He has so many different names he posts under on the same boards and all over the boards in general, from newbie names to names that have been around a long time. Look at the names that come out of the woodwork on this board for example that either precede a Sera post or that follow shortly after, low post counts and minions of this spoofer. Follow the trail, count the names, it is a tangled web of deep and vast deception.He is only helpful in muddying the water and planting seeds. You can bet there will be a surprise this week, but it is a doctored surprise. He has been point blank about that Julie goes just at the merge since the beginning of the season, if his intel is so good, why change now? The list goes on and on. He definately has some inside info, enough truth mixed in to make him believable. But make no mistake about it, Sera is not out to be helpful or to point to the real boot, his "info" that he spreads through the boards keeps changing daily. He says he is doing this in order to make the show more enjoyable for all of us, so that we can't really spoil it no matter how much we want to. It makes for some interesting reading I will say. 
2004 A S S Trivia Champ
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-02-04, 10:31 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios" |
>Sera is playing games, has always
>played games and will continue
>to play games. He
>has so many different names
>he posts under on the
>same boards and all over
>the boards in general, from
>newbie names to names that
>have been around a long
>time. Look at the
>names that come out of
>the woodwork on this board
>for example that either precede
>a Sera post or that
>follow shortly after, low post
>counts and minions of this
>spoofer. Follow the trail,
>count the names, it is
>a tangled web of deep
>and vast deception. KO, I hope you're not referring to me? I've posted several times in this thread, including the original Ami scenario, but I assure you I have no connection to Sera. I've been a lurker here for a few years, just didn't feel like I had anything to add to the discussion so didn't post. I remember the Shakes the Clown flames of newbies, lol. I have no idea who will actually be booted Thursday, just thought that editing, promos, and common sense led to Ami.
Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-02-04, 11:46 AM (EST)
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56. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios" |
You must admit in some small way this season is a far cry from previous ones. Hopefully everyone is enjoying how the spoilers are now changing their minds in regards to possible boots (something we haven't seen in quite a long time). I can also confirm one thing ... I did have inside info on this season since early August as you could probably tell. From the top it trickled down to all of us which is why you see a common factor with the spoilers and spillers. In my movie clue at Chatter you've seen images of constellations (something which has been featured in edits in a few episodes). This has meaning. You might've also seen a few of my 13 hidden clues of which some have come to pass (opening episode - the women on logs as the men kneeled and drank kava which numbed their mouths). I can also say that none of my minions are here, but I'm virtually everywhere on every Survivor board since 2000. S.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-04, 12:31 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-04 AT 12:34 PM (EST)I really don't see the problem here. Seraphaem claims he has inside information. We have no way of knowing this. Heck, we have no way of knowing whether Snewser has inside information. However, his boot record lets us assume he does. Snewser does the same thing at Sucks that Sera is doing here. Snewser comes on, a few days/week before Survivor, posts something cryptic (or sometimes blatant), and the spoilers at Sucks interpret this information. That's how it's done. Cryptic clues have been common throughout Survivor Spoiling history, and they always will be. If Seraphaem feels the urge to post that "the name is Ami," I fully welcome it. I don't *entirely* believe it, but I think that Ami's a definite boot possibility. Many people questioned a Julie post-merge boot for awhile, but blindly followed it, because of Snewser's list. I'm not pertaining to anyone specifically here, but personally, that's how I felt. Now, Snewser's dropped Julie's name and Seraphaem is "muddying the water," as you say. What's wrong with muddy waters sometimes? This is a Spoiler board. The answer isn't going to crystal clear each week, and frankly I don't want it to be. This is why I only post when the boot looks uncertain. It isn't "fun" when spoilers nail every boot. In fact, Christy's Amazon boot was one of the most fun, in my opinion. Me? I'll take slightly muddy waters over crystal clear ones. A little mud may have helped us acknowlege the missed Travis boot. I remember, many of us dismissed a good deal of Travis boot speculation, since we "knew" Travis was gone in Episode 6. Of course, this is all easy to say in hindsight, but it's true. A little "conflicting information" may have been just what the doctor orders. My point is this. Survivor Spoiling, like the business world, is a global community. People here read Sucks and Chatter, and bring back ideas (with links). The same is probably true for the other sites. And, as shown this year, some "presumed" Chatter posters have decided to post here. Personally, I really enjoy seeing some of the more "infamous" posters from Sucks, Chatter, etc adding to the discussions here. I know that we have some great spoilers here at Blows, and I love to see them interpret the information. Whether the information is true or not is still undetermined. So, we all need to take the information for what it is: unconfirmed. The only reason it looks like everyone's jumping onto an Ami bandwagon is because we haven't really discussed an Ami boot. And to some, an Ami boot makes more sense than a Julie boot. Even if the boot *does* end up being Julie, the week isn't a loss. As a community, we will be able to say that we analyzed every perspective, which may come in handy later. And it also brought some frustrated readers out of lurking (like myself). 
Jims02: Counting down the days until The Amazing Race starts
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-04, 04:04 PM (EST)
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31. "Puzzle Pieces" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 04:28 PM (EST)Here's my more in-depth analysis that I promised. This commentary is all post-merge, of course. Low Danger1. Leann
-Some character development.
-Poor in the challenges, little post-merge challenge threat.
-Gamewise, extremely non-threatening.
-Overshadowed by Ami's dominance in alliance. 2. Twila
-Abrasive at times, but is becoming a sympathetic character for the audience, kind of like Rupert.
-Gamewise, she has more options than anyone else.
-Good with Sarge, alligned with Ami.
-Possibility of getting caught as a "Burton" fence-sitter. 3. Chad
-Interesting editing, some character development.
-Somewhat of an enigma. He's very UTR, but, paradoxically, he's also visible at the same time. Probably due to his prostethic leg.
-John K's "Chad's a threat" may catch up to him eventually, especially if the women take the upper hand.
-I could see Chad definitely moving into the Medium category easily. 4. Chris
-Some editing, mostly due to strategy.
-Is perceived as the strongest gamer by the audience.
-Still overshadowed by the tribe's leader perception of Sarge.
-Could possibly be seen as a "Rob C" threat.
-Might not be seen as a big of a physical threat as Rory, Sarge, or Chad, due to his Ep1 performance. Medium Danger(no more bullet points) Scout It's clear where Scout's loyalties lie. She is alligned with Ami, Leann, and Eliza. She hasn't had the opportunity to interact with the men yet, so it should be interesting to see what she does. Scout's been extremely quiet, but received some attention during the Family Letter portion. She was rumored to not have any family visitor, so she stays in the Medium category. If Scout does get booted in the next four episodes, it probably won't be right after the merge. She's safe for now. Eliza She's in the same boat as Scout. She's perceived much more obnoxiously than Scout though. More of a gamer threat than a physical threat. Chris expressed some annoyance that the girls would keep someone like her around, which may shorten her lifespan. She *could* annoy the boys enough after the merge, but I doubt it. She might be booted, but I would see the boys go after Ami first. High DangerSarge THE BAD NEWS: Sarge is the alpha-male at Lopevi. He's playing the game, and keeping the troops in line. He may not really be pulling the strings (Chris), but the girls probably don't know that. They're likely to target Sarge first, as a challenge threat and a leader. THE GOOD NEWS: As indicated by vidcaps, there's a possibility that he wins Immunity this week, making him safe for now. If he can get through the first couple merge boots, he may be in the clear for awhile. Rory THE BAD NEWS: Rory's been an outsider for the past three episodes. He's been alienated by Ami, his new enemy. He has also been replaced by Twila in the Final Four alliance at Lopevi. Been edited as an unlucky man's "Richard Hatch." Right now, he's just hanging by a thread. Also, his recent success in challenges make him a post-merge challenge threat too. Finally, his loved one was rumored to never leave for Vanuatu. A bad sign. THE GOOD NEWS: The enemy of your enemy is your friend. Look for Rory to run back to Lopevi to boot one of the girls. Sometimes the merge helps people who were about to be booted. Julie THE BAD NEWS: She's on the wrong side of Lopevi, and the wrong side of Yasur before the merge. She may be seen as expendible for both tribes at the merge, especially right before the jury. If Twila questions Julie's Final Four lie, it might just lead to her boot. Yasur may stay together, but boot some deadweight, a la Survivor: Outback (see Jerri, Amber). THE GOOD NEWS: Taken off of Snewser's site. That's not necessarily concrete though. Snewser loves messing with us at the merge. Ami THE BAD NEWS: Extremely negative editing recently. Has shown the audience that she wants little to do with the men. However, at the merge, it is crucial to at least be diplomatic with the other tribe. She's also made an enemy in Rory. If Twila and Julie don't return to the girls' alliance, it might be curtains for Ami. She is also perceived as a leader and a challenge threat. THE GOOD NEWS: No rumors about her family members. I guess that might be good? My point is this: We have many puzzle pieces lying in front of us. Until we can piece them together, it will all seem like a jumbled mess. Here's some questions we need to ask:
1. Does New Lopevi stay together? (boot Ami)
2. Does Twila and Julie run back to New Yasur girls? (boot Rory?)
3. Does Twila play both sides and arrange a boot that both sides like? (boot Julie)
4. What's up with the family visits spoilers? Are they finally eliminating this challenge? Does that make this spoiler moot?
5. Is Snewser messing with us this week? (serious question) These are important questions to ask. I'm not here to provide answers. I'm supplying the questions for now. If you want crazy speculation, see my "Spoiler Notes."
Jims02: Counting down the days until The Amazing Race starts
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 04:16 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Puzzle Pieces" |
1. Does New Lopevi stay together? (boot Ami)
2. Does Twila and Julie run back to New Yasur? (boot Rory?) Trying to analyze this logically from the standpoint of Twila and Julie: Julie would be the least likely to be interested in a move back to Yasur. When the twist occurred, she and Eliza were the next two on the Yasur boot list, with Julie the more likely target since she had never voted with the burly girls. The twist gave Eliza the chance to win back the trust of the Yasur women, while Julie became even more marginalized. Right now she's 6th on the women's pecking order, and 5th on Lopevi's. Where does she feel more likely to move herself up the rankings? With the women, she's an II threat, with the men, she's got her boobage. Twila was firm in the burly girls alliance before the twist, but she's suspicious of why they kept Rory instead of Lisa. She's also been promised final 4 if she stays with Lopevi, and she feels more comfortable with men anyway. It looks like Julie and Twila are trying to win Sarge over from his existing F3 alliance into one with them. I think they both think they have a better current position in the Lopevi pecking order, with a better shot of moving up, than if they went back with the women. Please abide in my words, for my references speak of the truth that is within me.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 04:14 PM (EST)
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32. "Spoiler Notes" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-04 AT 04:17 PM (EST)(Sorry folks, I've just got a lot of thoughts today) Regarding the family visit spoiler, I just had an interesting thought. This is assuming that there is a family visit. Question: Why would Scout and Eliza be semi-early merge boots? These two are extremely low challenge threats. Answer: Like other "weak" players, they are at the tail end of a Pagonging. Look at it this way. The spoiler suggests the Rory, Eliza, and Scout's loved one's don't travel to Vanuatu. This is interesting. Each of these players are from New Yasur. Also, Ami is rumored to go this week. Is it possible that Twila and Julie stick with New Lopevi, to pick off the New Yasur Tribe? 10. Ami
9. Rory (Gender Wars?)
8. Eliza
7. Scout In this scenario, Jeff Probst would be right. Yasur's alliance doesn't hold up, and the Fat Five's alliance doesn't hold either (Bubba, Rory boots). The big problem with this kind of scenario is that it doesn't include Leann. Why would she be the last Yasur member left? Why not Scout? Did Leann's poor IC performance turn that many heads? If it weren't for Leann, I may be more inclined to accept this idea.
Jims02: Counting down the days until The Amazing Race starts
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 04:24 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Spoiler Notes" |
Also, Ami is rumored to go this week. Is it possible that Twila and Julie stick with New Lopevi, to pick off the New Yasur
Tribe? 10. Ami
9. Rory
8. Eliza
7. Scout The only problem with this kind of scenario is that it doesn't include Leann. Why would she be the last Yasur member left? Why not Scout? Did Leann's poor IC performance turn that many heads? If it weren't for Leann, I may be more inclined to accept this idea. I like your idea of a Pagoning...with a minor tweak. I don't think Rory is the next NewYasur to be picked off by Lopevi. The title of the next episode is "Gender Wars". If Ami goes this week, then the women still hold a 5-4 advantage. Picking off Rory next would mean 5-3...and put the Lopevi men at risk of being picked off if the remaining women can sway Twila and Julie back into the fold. The safer option for them is to get down to a equal number of men and women. At that point, there would be no advantage for Twila and Julie to turn on them, and it would be safe to get rid of Rory. Then why Scout before Leann? Because not all ICs are physical. Leann could win one and disturb the pecking order. So switch Eliza and Rory, and I'm on board with you. Please abide in my words, for my references speak of the truth that is within me.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 04:35 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Spoiler Notes" |
The spoiler suggests the Rory, Eliza, and Scout's loved one's don't travel to Vanuatu.Jim, FYI, the spoiler, now retracted, was about the loved ones of Eliza, Scout and Sarge. There never was a Rory family visit spoiler: http://p072.ezboard.com/fsurvivorchatterfrm152.showMessage?topicID=52.topic Also, up above you mentioned that Twila was/is in an alliance with Ami. I don't see this. Ami believes that all the women are going to stick together, so in a sense she thinks Twila is part of her alliance. But Twila didn't like Ami. She scoffed at Ami's suggestion that she get her hair braided. Ami might be the least likely woman for Twila to align with now. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 04:51 PM (EST)
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37. "Snewser update" |
I am not sure if this has been mentioned but Snewser removed Julie's name from his boot list as of now - no one is listed - Makes me really think maybe Ami does go home.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 05:21 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Spoiler Notes" |
I think the family visit spoiler should not be taken into consideration at all..as BR posts, it was retracted by Sera. It states that the particular family members of Sarge, Eliza and Scout do not visit Vanuatu..in that thread I asked Sear if other family members go instead. He just said the 3 do not go. Possibly there is no actual family visit..maybe it was not doable bc of the earthquakes, etc. I don't think Sarge, Eliza and Scout should be considered as the first jurors based on this...it shouldn't be taken into consideration... 
Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 05:47 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Spoiler Notes" |
From the Episode 4 Insider. Okay, Twila seems to have relented eventually, and she's probably not holding a grudge against Ami. But I don't think she feels any particular affinity for Ami either.--------------------
Twila’s Feminine Side
-------------------- Description: Wounded by Ami’s comments about her lack of femininity at last night’s Tribal Council, good sport Twila tries to be “one of the girls.”
Twila: (To Lisa) I want to thank you for last night. You know? Wouldn’t for you, I’d be home.
Lisa: Well you know what? I was just really shocked with Ami. She got on you for being masculine? That just drove me crazy. Leann (Confessional): Tribal council last night: it felt like a therapy session. Everybody was airing their dirty laundry. Twila got a little picked on for the way she is. Twila: I’m going to get some more wood because this ain’t gonna last for very long. Twila (Confessional): There were a lot of things said last night at Tribal Council. And I don’t know what do to with them. Ami made a comment about me being masculine. About letting some of my feminine qualities shine through or something. It just kind of hit me wrong. Ami (Confessional): My conversation with Twila was, I don’t know, maybe coaching? Because I love to be coached. But I guess I hurt her feelings. So I just wanted to get her to realize that I care for her. And that change and growth? They are painful. (In the shelter) Leann: Twila, I heard that you were very upset last night and you cried. (Twila lets out a sob) Leann: Hey, it’s okay. (Leann hugs Twila. Twila cries.) Leann (Confessional): Me and Ami and Twila were all laying down, and Twila started crying. Twila: I don’t trust too many people. People use you and they abuse you, and they eat you up and they spit you out. Leann or Ami (?): That’s just you talking from someplace where you’ve been hurt. There’s a lot of people that would really benefit from being friends with you. It would really make their lives a lot better place. I love you the way you are. Ami (Confessional): For her to have a vulnerable side, that’s something pretty new to her. I think Twila really has gotten in touch with a different side of her. She’s like a little blossom that’s just starting to open. Realizing there’s a whole world out there. Ami: Ready? Twila: I’m ready. Do your magic. (Ami braids Twila’s hair) Twila (Confessional): I can’t relate to these women. There’s no doubt about that at all. Especially Ami. Last night at Tribal Council she said something about braiding my hair. It’s hard for me to sit still when there’s work to be done, and getting my hair braided. That don’t make no sense to me. I don’t know. If I have to play the game, letting them mess with my hair, if that makes them happy, hey, whatever. I guess I’ll have to do it. But I won’t like it! I’ll tell you that right now! Ami: Wow, that looks beautiful. (Twila kisses Ami on the cheek) Eliza: Beautiful. It looks really nice. I like that so much. Twila: Now you damn women happy? Letting you comb my hair? (Laughs)
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 06:30 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Along Those Lines" |
But all that depends on Julie telling them and I dont think she will. Everyone left has betrayed her in some way and she knows that had they not switched tribes she would have been gone. I think Julie stays with the guys until she realizes it too late.
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 07:45 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: EP8 Merge Boot Scenarios - the chaos factor" |
An observation (yeah, like we can't do without another observation! here goes anyway.When the tribes merge and finally arrive at a common camp, there won't be a lot of time to sort out an agreed upon bootee, so the most reasonable bootee from any spoiler/speculator point of view could be overlooked by the actual voters. OR one camp may have its act together and the other, not so much. So it maybe wise to consider who, in a semi-chaotic - short time for decision making and manipulation - situation (whew), who would be the easiest for a largest bloc of punters to agree on. The three men plus Twilla can probably agree on someone pretty easily, they may already have a target, and if they are smart it would be Ami, kick her out and it may very well be the death knell for the women. Or, if they are scrambling, trying to talk to the other side for a feel of what they think, offering conflicting opinions in secret discussions, they could very well decide on Rory as an easy compromise (and for all the reasons prev. stated). The four women may also have an agreed on target, and if they are smart and informed, it would be Chris or Sarge. Do they? Hard to tell. Indications are that they are less together game wise. If their decision making is confused, Rory also stands out as an easy compromise for them. It all comes down to which camp has their act together, if they both do, then the women get the nod because of numbers (Julie is a wild card here, my guess is she is a man team girl, but could as easily become a girl team girl). My feeling is that the men are better manipulators, esp. Chris who has shown an ability to split opposing faction voting blocs and he could do it again here, and if he somehow got the women to split a vote or two off it would not surprise me. My prediction is either;
a. 9-1 or 8-2 Rory,
OR, my real choice because of Chris’s track record: - 4 at least for Ami and the rest for (Rory + who knows, Julie?) The most recent spoilers point to Ami also.
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shangrila 7 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-04, 00:19 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: Chad... " |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-04 AT 00:21 AM (EST)Okinawa officer's stepson is a 'Survivor' competitor Marine Lt. Col. Ann Crittenden, assistant chief of staff G-1 — administration — for the 1st Marine Air Wing, wasn’t even aware that stepson Chad Crittenden was competing on “Survivor: Vanuatu” until five days before the first episode aired on Sept. 16. She said her husband, retired Marine Lt. Col. Steve Crittenden, signed a confidentiality agreement and couldn’t say anything, but before Crittenden boarded the plane to move to Okinawa, her daughter told her Chad was “doing something really cool.” Crittenden, on an unaccompanied tour while her husband stays at their home in Fredericksburg, Va., arrived here the week the show began. I don't know, maybe it's a normal procedure but...
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-04, 04:00 PM (EST)
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60. "Another possibility: Sarge?" |
More speculation here, but this comment by Drones in VS' thread got me thinking...I wonder if she (Ami) knows that she is on Rory's hit list. First of all, I'm quite sure Rory didn't tell Ami that she is -- but I don't think Ami would suspect it on her own either. She seems to regard Rory as a sort of inconvenience and she is just biding her time trying to placate him (if not vote him off) until the women can get back together. Which makes me wonder if Rory would be the Yasur women's primary target at the merge. I'm starting to think not -- or at least he wouldn't be the only one. As the leader of the women's alliance, it would make sense for Ami to try and take down the one she thinks is the leader of the men's alliance. While we suspect that Chris is really pulling the strings, the leader "face" at Lopevi belongs to Sarge. Now if Ami wanted to get Sarge the leader out she'd need at least one woman to return to the fold. Maybe a candidate will appear?... Some are speculating that Julie will be the person running around trying to make alliances with everyone. She's been flirting with Sarge -- and -- she knows Twila's been promised a final 4 spot with the boys. Suppose she approaches Sarge one-to-one with the idea of an alliance and he rebuffs her, saying he can't commit because he already has loyalties elsewhere? Most people here think Sarge is usually pretty honest, right? That would give Julie pause. She'd finally know that her flirting wasn't paying off and she'd never make any inroads with the Lopevi alliance. So she might be willing to go back with the women (she wouldn't care what Twila did at that point, I'm guessing), and get rid of Sarge, since he'd be of no use to her anymore. Call it a "hell hath no fury" vote... Sarge is prominent enough in the previews to warrant consideration as a boot this week. Again this is just speculation about what *could* happen...there're a lot of balls in the air at the moment.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-04, 04:12 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Another possibility: Sarge?" |
Sarge is prominent enough in the previews to warrant consideration as a boot this week.I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment. I think that perhaps Chris will win immunity and if he does, I would venture to guess that the ladies will indeed target Sarge. When Twilla and Julie get wind of the fact that the ladies have targeted Sarge, they are even more likely to side with the guys to avoid a Sarge boot. I think that Twilla and Julie are solidly in Sarge's camp. Twilla for sure, as she has been promised a final four spot, and like others that have posted, I do feel that Sarge is a man of his word. I think Twilla feels this way as well. As for Julie, Julie was at the very bottom of the pecking order with the girls, she had no hope of survival over there, just as JK had no hope of survival staying with Lopevi. I think that she is willing to stand by her new tribe. I particularly do not think that she will send a vote Sarge's way. Her only strategy to stay in this game is the sex charm, and that is far more likely to work with the guys. She has no strategy with the girls. So BR, I agree with you.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-04, 05:35 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: Another possibility: Sarge?" |
I particularly do not think that (Julie) will send a vote Sarge's way. Her only strategy to stay in this game is the sex charm, and that is far more likely to work with the guys. She has no strategy with the girls.But...her flirtation strategy is only working if it gets her into an endgame alliance. I'm suggesting that if she doesn't get any assurances about that, soon, from the men, she might decide to hang it up. And going back to the women's alliance isn't a total loss for Julie. Eliza would probably welcome having Julie back, since she appears to be third in an alliance with Ami and Leann, or maybe fourth in an alliance with those two + Scout. Plus, aside from Ami, Julie is probably the most athletic of the women there, giving her a better shot at winning immunities if the guys are gone.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-02-04, 05:00 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Another possibility: Sarge?" |
Thanks for the feedback everyone, and thanks for not noticing my mathematical error -- I was thinking there are 9 people left but there are 10. Therefore if only Julie switches back it would only be enough to create a tie.It seems like Twila and Julie almost have to vote the same way this week in order for anyone to get booted. Would they both vote for Ami? Very possibly. Would they both vote for Rory? Very possibly. Would they both vote for Sarge? I don't think Twila would. So that seems to throw a wrench into Sarge leaving. Unless...Rory feels unwelcomed by Lopevi *and* is possibly the person who chafes at being bossed around (by Sarge, like old times)? Would he toss a vote at Sarge too? Eh -- I'm not thrilled with any of these scenarios this week. And KB, I respect your opinion about the 5/4 split, but there already *is* a gender war -- it's just not overt yet because they are still on separate tribes. But the gender war is the running motif of this game. So I don't think an even tribal distribution is necessary for a gender war to continue to play out post-merge -- it will still be a game of the men vs. the women, even if the men are in danger of being quickly pagonged.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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PhillyBrat 172 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-04, 07:38 AM (EST)
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68. "Am I missing something?" |
Sorry if this has already be covered however after reading this post and the conflict of Ami being the female leader yet Julie being the one that goes. I can only offer one idea.A tie. Ami, Scout, Lee ann, Eliza and JULIE vote in one block
Rory, Sarge, Chris, Chad and TWILA vote in another block We get the purple stone again and Julie is the one that receives the honor. This would also have a good meaning for next week's "gender wars" a focus on Twila and how she would rather vote with the men then women. Now is there something that says this isn't a possabillity.. just my two cents..
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