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"First Member of Jury: Speculation"
NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-31-04, 02:55 PM (EST)
 
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"First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
It seems patently obvious that Julie's brilliant strategy to strip her way into an alliance will be unsuccessful and result in her expulsion at the merge. Plus, Snews says so and that's good enough for me. Where it gets exciting, however, is post-merge when they start forming the jury. Here I want to speculate as to who that first jury member will be. My guess is Ami, and here's why.Ami's game play: First of all, as gorgeous as this woman is, she's not playing a very smart game. If this were a game of poker, what Ami has essentially done is show her hand, which done too soon spells disaster. She would rather hang on to a duplicitous Eliza than keep Rory. This is stupid, but what is even stupider is telling Rory, in no uncertain terms, that not only is he next on the list to go, but that she wants an all female alliance to stick together to the end and win. This plan bars any future realignment or flexibility for her. Essentially, she told Rory that he has the wrong genitals to be in her alliance. Why she didn't just string him along with false promises, I'll never know, but here's what that move did to her game. First, she made an enemy in Rory, and she did it right before the merge when the numbers will be so precarious. She presumes that Twila and Julie will come running back to the Yassur women as soon as they merge, never believeing that either had the flexibility to reinvent themselves after the switch. All good players are flexible and able to change gameplans when twists interfere with Plan A. Rory is angry, and his statement that Ami could have had a best friend in him but chose to make him an enemy instead is classic foreshadowing. She is first on his hit list. Despite his earlier comment that he can't go back to Lopevi, this is precisely what he will do. Why show him saying that? Because he will lead the men to dispatch Ami at their earliest convenience. Other evidence thru vidcaps, etc: There is some good discussion going on that Ami may well win the first individual IC, which will do two things. First, it forces the four men, now realligned, to choose another target -- a female. Chris says their goal is to pick the women off one by one. I'm not sure it will go down that way in the long run, but they will likely pick a few off, and why go after Scout or Eliza, who everyone agrees is a challenge boob, when Ami has been so strong in leading her tribe in the challenges? An Ami IC win will also signal to the men that she is a physical threat, and you KNOW how the guys feel about anyone who can out-play them. So, between showing her cards too soon, alienating Rory (and sending him running back to the men), and showing her physical strength, Ami has sealed her fate. No, she doesn't fit the traditional boot candidate for the first jury member, but considering all the tough, strong guys were booted early, Ami is actually the biggest threat out there. So there goes MY eye candy. The surprise? Twila deserts the women and votes out both Julie and Ami.
it's good to be back.
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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10-31-04, 09:17 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
This sounds like a very good explanation of what might happen.
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AMAZON 98 desperate attention whore postings
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10-31-04, 10:18 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
>but what is even stupider
>is telling Rory, in no
>uncertain terms, that not only
>is he next on the
>list to go, but that
>she wants an all female
>alliance to stick together to
>the end and win.
>This plan bars any future
>realignment or flexibility for her.
I think that this is what Ami WANTS but she isn't planning to stubbornly pursue this idea if she feels it will cost her the game, after all she did vote out Lisa BEFORE Rory.
>She presumes that Twila and
>Julie will come running back
>to the Yassur women as
>soon as they merge, never
>believeing that either had the
>flexibility to reinvent themselves after
>the switch.
This is true, but she believes that one of them got voted out instead of John K. ........so I guess she is counting on either Julie or Twila being odd (wo)man out and the genders merging 5-5.
>An Ami IC win will also
>signal to the men that
>she is a physical threat,
>and you KNOW how the
>guys feel about anyone who
>can out-play them.
I don't think the men are too concerned about a woman being too powerful...I think their egos are too big for them to admit they would be intimidated by a woman dominating the challenges. ....hell I just really don't want Ami to go...she is one of the closer things to interesting this season.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-04, 02:07 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
I think that this is what Ami WANTS but she isn't planning to stubbornly pursue this idea if she feels it will cost her the game, after all she did vote out Lisa BEFORE Rory.Ami didn't really like Lisa, imo; she didn't like her palling with the guys and wanting to show them how to do things. She doesn't want women around who she feels might be unreceptive to an all-women's alliance. (Also, Ami mentioned the idea of an all-women alliance sticking together in front of Leann, but I wonder how many of the other Yasur women she has actually broached this with). This is true, but she believes that one of them got voted out instead of John K. ........so I guess she is counting on either Julie or Twila being odd (wo)man out and the genders merging 5-5. Well then she's even stupider for not trying to string Rory along because she will need an extra person to help boot the other men. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Sam Buru 40 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-31-04, 10:39 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
Excelent post NightScribe. I wonder what game Ami is playing, don't think it is Survivor. When Ami went after Lisa, she did so straight up without fear of reprocussion. She also went after Travis the same way, at least so during TC. She has been more up-front and brutally honest than any Survivor I can remember, maybe because she thinks she is secure in her position. Maybe that is her strategy. Ami should be the next logical boot, and if she wins Individual Immunity that point should be driven home to all.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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11-01-04, 07:45 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
Welcome back, Scribey! Good to see ya...I'm in agreement with a lot of your points, but I'm still having a little trouble reconciling what's going on with Ami. I'm getting a lot of mixed messages from her so she's the most unpredictable one of them all for me -- as you've pointed out, she's very much a woman-centered person who wants the men out and is playing a terrible poker game by revealing far too much of her intentions, yet she booted Lisa instead of Rory.
>The surprise? Twila deserts the
>women and votes out both
>Julie and Ami.
This? I can totally buy that, regardless of what Ami did to deserve it or not.
 
©Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004 Scratch and sniff
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Nashter 35 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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11-01-04, 09:06 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
Nothing seems certain now! Jury is not until Ep 9. Julie is not the certain boot anymore given Snewser's retraction. There are secret alliances and I feel Ami will be off pre jury
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hapology 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-02-04, 01:55 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
I don't know where to put this, So I am posting it here. Julie is an ECU graduate (East Carolina University)and I was on a board compriised of ECU students- link http://www.partyeastcarolina.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=126735and her old roommate posted this instant messenger conversation between them. Not sure if it has much spoiler value, but thought I would share.... Katie13812: I want to know all the dirt about the show
Julie: I gots plenty of dirt
Julie: How are you???
Katie13812: i am doing really good and yourself??? enjoying your celebrity status???
Julie: I have a crazy thing going on, nothing happens with survivor until, if, i get voted out
Julie: So i am just traveling ALOT, i mean a sickning amount, and i am in LA right now planning to move out here in a month
Katie13812: that is cool
Katie13812: you gotta let me know shows you will be on
Julie: Oh i will
Katie13812: i am making all my friends here and my sister and mom watch too!
Julie: hehehehe, GREAT, it only gets better katie, i will be pretty predominate
Katie13812: i can't wait it kills me not knowing
Katie13812: but i hope you win
Katie13812: or at least make the jury
Katie13812: ive got lots of questions for you but i know you probably cant tell me until the show is over
Katie13812: but expect a list of questions!
Julie: well ask me one
Katie13812: razors...none of you look very hairy? was that an item allowed
Julie: NOTHING
Julie: I expected hair before i went on it didn't bother me
Julie: I didn't shave for a week after we were back either
Katie13812: sick
Katie13812: haha
Julie: come on is that all you got?
Katie13812: i will write them down as they come to me...any hookups?
Julie: can't tell you that.... but i gots TON OF DIRT, you'll ##### YOUR PANTS
Katie13812: where does jeff stay on the island?
Julie: Who do you like?
Katie13812: well obviously i am biased about you but i think john k is hot! and i really like john p and brady but they are no longer. i dont like ami at all
Julie: Jeff is actually right next to me, how do you feel about that
Katie13812: shut up
Julie: JOHN K SUCKS
Julie: I saw brady the other day, he is getting married to a women he doesn't love and hits on me all the time
Katie13812: haha
Julie: no serioulsy jeff is right next to me building a fire
Katie13812: what
Katie13812: do i think jeff is hot?
Julie: how old do you think he is??
Katie13812: he's good looking but not my type
Katie13812: late 30's
Julie: really... why??
Julie: you like skinny tall guys??
Katie13812: i love my blondes too
Katie13812: are you ##### dating jeff!!!!
Katie13812: julie you never cease to amaze me!!!
Julie: I'm not dating jeff...
Julie: friend of mine though
Katie13812: you have to tell me everything when the show is over
Katie13812: now you have me dying!
Julie: i will
Julie: so you think i look like myself on the show?
Katie13812: tan skin, chicken legs, long hair yup Julie to a T
Katie13812: yeah but for real you look good
Katie13812: <---jealous
Julie: really, cuz i'm getting ##### from people
Katie13812: like what
Katie13812: i havent seen you in a while but you look just like i remember you except you are really tan
Julie: Ok, don't speculate i'll tell you everything VERY soon
I will keep my eyes open for any new postings.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-04, 07:52 AM (EST)
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9. "Possibly a Julie Boot???" |
Night, I thought I'd bump this back to where it belongs. Yes, all of your arguments for an Ami boot are right on target. In the promos this week it seems to feature Ami as well, certainly looks as though she is a strong possibility. With all the gender wars hype, and all of the dissatisfied, even angry Sarge all over the promos as well, it looks as though the two main bootee candidates are most definately Ami and Sarge. But, TDT has come out with a nod to Julie as the first member of the jury. Once again I am speculating as to how she might possibly get there. TDT seems to think that all of the men vs. women hype is just major misdirection and after reviewing these vidcaps..... 
notes that "Julie will get burned". Could all of the Sarge/Ami shots just be misdirection for a Julie boot????
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Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 08:35 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Possibly a Julie Boot???" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-04 AT 08:38 AM (EST)Pure spec on my part. "It's 5 to 3!" This might not be a mistake on the part of CBS. This might be a a clue if you understand it correctly. We have 4 women (Ami, Scout, Leann, Eliza and Julie) against the 3 men (Sarge, Chris and Chad) while the only one undecided at this point is Twila. The key to a tie is Twila. The only way the men have a fighting chance in this "gender war" as Rory put it in his last confessional is to have a tie vote between the two persons who have been campaigning against each other, Sarge and Ami. Sarge, I believe, will pull out a win and that's how Ami is ousted.
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Gingerman28 380 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-08-04, 10:50 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: Possibly a Julie Boot???" |
Sera, count 'em: Ami, Scout, LeAnn, Eliza and Julie that adds up to five women not four, so if they all vote for Sarge then even if Twila splits and votes with Sarge and the the boys against Ami, Sarge still loses out 5 to 4.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-04, 10:31 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
Julie...see some of my reasoning herehttp://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5498.shtml#5 The men have to realize that to stay in the game, they have to get another woman on their side. And they have to realize that Ami is not the way to go...too many of the women like her. Keep her around for now. Remember Rory said he talked to Scout and Eliza about getting Ami..but it didn't work.. Ami is too strong right now... Therefore, who do the men try to enlist and who do they try to oust. It's Scout...she was the one that came up with the term...bowhead--I'm sure she would like to see the remaining 2 bowheads go before some of the men--esp. Chad and Sarge imo. Also Twila and Scout get along very well...Scout could be the replacement for ...JULIE...who the men, esp. Chad, do not trust, now more than ever. I see Scout having no problem going after her (or Eliza) before the men...they would still have a 4-3 lead at 7. So instead of Twila/Julie being the swing votes..Scout and Twila become the swing votes. I see them being able to pull this off much better than Julie/Twila because they are older, smarter, closer (and have more car insurance  ) 
Handcrafted by RollDdice
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-04, 10:53 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
When Scout voted last week, didn't she say something like, "Rory, if you had picked a different woman...," implying she could have gone along with it? I think Scout is in relatively tight with Ami and Leann, and she obviously likes Twila too. The "different woman" would probably have been Eliza, imo, whom Rory wanted to boot the week Lisa left. This week Chris is saying "Scout wants to burn Eliza," which may be true, but it reeks of misdirection about what will actually happen. But also, Scout has never had any real connection to Julie, so if she were going to vote against a woman now, I don't see her having a problem voting against Julie, the other "bowhead."
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-04, 11:08 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
Yes!!! BR Thank you...I knew there was a reference to picking another woman, I just couldn't remember that it was when Scout voted!!!I too agree that the "Scout burning Eliza" is misdirection this week (anyway). I think Julie's story was over two weeks ago..so I really do think she is going this episode... Eliza may go next week or she may realize, when Julie is gone, that she is toast and does some more scrambling and agrees to go with the men, either to force a tie 4-4 or to vote with the men + Twila/Scout to oust Leann. I still see T/S not feeling comfortable voting out Ami (or she wins immunity) and Bebo..I like your thinking about the title this week.
Handcrafted by RollDdice
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NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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11-08-04, 01:16 PM (EST)
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25. "Not so sure of Ami now" |
I wrote my original post with the notion that there would be a Rory/Ami showdown last episode, and that did come to pass, but I was wrong on one count: Twila and Julie did not betray the women's alliance, which confused me.Editing led us to assume that Twila was one of the guys and Julie had no where else to go, so why did they remain loyal to the women? One quote offered almost as a throw-away stands out. When Twila and Julie were on the beach, Twila said something to the affect of "might as well screw them before they screw me." I incorrectly assumed this was a reference to the women, but it wasn't. This leads me to believe that Twila never trusted her place in the men's alliance, so she went where she felt safe. Ami may well still be the first member of the jury. The title "Gender Wars" indicates Ami will be at the center of the coming episode, for who has indicated more clearly than she that the game is divided along gender lines? Still, will the men have the votes to oust her? Will Twila's promise to boot Rory then Ami come to fruition? Has she burned her bridges with the men? Will Sarge's guilt trip work? Too many unknowns. Twila is truly a wildcard this episode. However... the previews indicate there will be some serious woman love going on after Rory's boot. The look of disgust on Sarge's face clearly indicates his hatred of the women's solidarity. Twila is not absent during the love fest; in fact, I saw a clip of Twila sitting between Ami's legs in a very intimate way. If Twila were planning to vote out Ami next TC, would she be able to share that kind of intimacy (not sexual intimacy, but the sisterly-variety)? I just don't see Twila as being that duplicitous. Seriously! She's absolutely unable to hide her disgust for those she doesn't like. So I am not sure that Twila will vote out Ami, and her vote is key if that's going to happen. I'm going to speculate that a woman does indeed get voted out, but I'm less certain it will be Ami. If not Ami, then who? I seriously doubt it will be Eliza because her story is so underdeveloped, and Jiffy has indicated that Eliza has a "huge" personality. Sorry, I haven't seen it yet, have any of you? I've seen her willingness to play the game, switch alliances, but personality? So, I'm doubtful of an Eliza boot unless there is some huge spike in her face time in the coming episode that reveals her overwhelming personality. Julie is another enigma. Her only storyline is her willingness to bare all. There seems to be little depth beyond that except for the lie she told Twila about being offered a final four spot by the men. So, what about this as a potential narrative for the coming episode. The women are happy; sarge is disgusted. So disgusted is he that he confronts Twila. "Why did you lie to me after you gave your word"? He demands to know. "Hey, I did give you my word Sarge, but you are the one who is a big fat liar. You said I would be number four in your alliance, but then you went and told Julie the same exact thing." She defends her action of voting out Rory by pulling that liitle ace out of her sleeve. "What?" exclaims Sarge, "I never did any such thing. That little beyotch is lying to you. I swear we never offered her a deal." Twila's stunned and pissed. So I can see Twila being brought back into the fold by the men and voting out Julie. What we're left with if Julie goes is this: Chad, Chris, Sarge, Twila
vs.
Leanne, Scout, Ami, Eliza Then it's anybody's game, just as Jiffy said it was. I'm not certain of what will happen, but I will go out on a limb and say that a woman will be the first member of the jury.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-04, 01:40 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Not so sure of Ami now" |
Scribe, I posted an alternate Julie theory below.I've noticed something odd about the voting in S9. No one has gotten votes at more than one TC except Rory, who got votes at every TC he attended. Chris, Leann, Twila and Chad all received votes only once. Everyone else got booted the first time they received votes. I don't really include Chad in this because he only got one vote from John K, but there seems to be a vague underlying motif that if the person isn't booted the first time, the faction that was against that person moves on to someone else, either by necessity or because someone else becomes a priority. It mostly a coincidence, of course, and it can't continue forever, but it's just giving me the feeling that Ami isn't going to get any votes this week.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-08-04, 01:25 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-04 AT 03:18 PM (EST)Julie getting the boot could happen for a slightly different reason. I think the two people who argue this week might be Scout and Eliza, with the result that each wants the other to leave. Under those circumstances, Scout should have no problem convincing Twila to vote for Eliza. It's doubtful to me though that Eliza could convince any of the women to vote against Scout, except her best buddy Julie. Ami and Leann would, I'm sure, prefer to vote for one of the guys. So what I'm thinking might happen is that Julie and Eliza start campaigning the guys to vote out Scout and it gets back to Twila and Scout. Twila and Scout campaign the men to vote against Eliza. The men would happily throw in with either side, even if it means abandoning Ami for the moment. Scout and Twila would likely make a more attractive pair to the men -- they are older and pose minimal IC threat. Meanwhile, though, Eliza, realizing that she will probably be on the losing end of the TC vote, pulls out an IC win. By that time enough of a battle will have been created that I don't think Scout and Twila would want to switch and vote against the men. So the men + Twila/Scout would have to target someone else. Scout would't want to vote against Ami or Leann. Julie was never in a close alliance with Scout and will have lobbied against her with Eliza. Add in that the men haven't quite trusted Julie anyway, and Julie becomes the default choice.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 02:02 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
NightScribe and BR, I like both of your theories. I particularly like the idea that somehow Sarge convinces Twila that he/they never promised Julie a final 4 spot and thus reveals that Julie has lied to Twila. This, imo, would turn Twila more towards voting off Julie.I definately think that the two tribemates fueled by hatred to lobby to vote off the other, is indeed referring to Eliza and Scout. Scout bee-lines to Eliza's torches in the RC, eliminating Eliza fairly early. This shows Eliza exactly where she stands on Scout's hit list as she discusses with Twila at camp, while Scout is away, that she takes this very personally. Perhaps Eliza just may win immunity this week!
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 02:29 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
NS, I think that is an angle worth investigating also.
I agree that the 'will the men become extinct' is the red herring.I like to try to pull back and view the show as the average viewer, to try to get a clue as to what MB is thinking. The polls on the CBS website make it clear that the average viewer has thought Eliza or Rory would go every week since the start of the series. Rory going last week was no surprise to them, lol. The hints in the promos about Scout burning Eliza will get the avg. viewer excited that Eliza is finally going to get hers. We, however, know that she won't. Is it because she wins immunity as BR suggests? Very possibly. Or, she is one smart little cookie and figures out a way to save her emaciated little butt once again. I think Eliza is capable of whatever kind of last minute scrambling is necessary to pull herself out of the fire, even if it means her bowhead friend Julie has to go instead. I cannot decide yet who I think will actually go this week. I think it's still possible that it's Sarge (but I agree the 'men extinct' is a red herring), much more likely it's a woman, and in that case it has to be Ami or Julie. Without better info, I'm betting the average viewer is shocked, and it's Julie.  Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 02:12 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
This is very plausible, very plausible indeed, BR.However, I keep going back to the web promo vidcaps of the Individual Immunity that JK won with Bubba blurry. Why show this at all, what reason, for fun, something to do? No, I think it is because Chad wins a challenge. Remember..he came in a close second in that II dig challenge. I thought initially Chad won the reward challenge but after looking at the analysis over on the vidcap thread, I think the Light the Torch challenge is for reward and Scout wins it. Therefore, I'm leaning towards a Chad II win and not Eliza. Why I think the men have an axe to grind with Julie, esp. Chad, is that he KNEW he should have gotten rid of her when Chris argued for JK. Now Chad says "I told you so" to Chris and they get her out by getting Scout on board. As for Twila, Scar, I think Sarge and her smooth out things and she tells him she didn't care for Rory (and he didn't either), that's why she voted for him. Also, the men know they can't alienate both of the Lopevi women if they want to stay in the game. So they choose the one they always trusted more and use her and Scout to continue in the game. 
Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
I'm sorry, Scar and FP!!! HAPPY BDAY!! My laptop is down and I didn't see it before I left work on Friday 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 03:02 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-04 AT 03:17 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 11-08-04 AT 03:15 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 11-08-04 AT 03:07 PM (EST) I don't know e, I am doubtful about Chad winning immunity, and I also don't know if Scout will be the one to side with the guys and Twila. The more I think about it the more I'm starting to think that Eliza will be the one to turn toward the guys. Here's my theory... Eliza gets burned out of the RC very early by Scout, she sees just where she stands on Scout's hit list...number one. Eliza is really angry over this and is seen in the vidcaps telling Twila that it's definately personal! The guys are around as Eliza rants about Scout. The guys are in need of numbers to survive. They would be looking for the weaker/lowest on the Yasur totem pole to bring over to their side. I'm thinking that one of the guys will approach Eliza privately and agree with her that her days are numbered if she stays true to the Yasur's. I propose that they offer her a better deal...perhpaps even final 4. I think it will be Eliza that sides with the guys to save her own skin. Then if Ami wins the IC, they target Julie, who has eagerly gone back to the Yasur alliance.... Here's the vidcap of Eliza telling Twila...it's definately personal!. Note Chad in the background.....listening! 
Food for thought. ETA: I do think that Sarge and Twila will also work out their differences, perhaps as they are discussing what is happening the fact that Julie lied to Twila will be revealed. Thus Twila will be back on board with the guys, aiming for Ami, yet if she wins the IC, they turn thier target to Julie. Then it will be Chad, Sarge, Chris, Twila, and Eliza voting for Julie, and Ami, Scout, Leanne, and Julie voting for Sarge... Flowerpower
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 03:44 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
But why would Eliza agree to boot Julie if she is mad at Scout...bc Twila won't go after Scout?? or is it because Scout wins immunity? but if that occurs then wouldn't Eliza want to go after Ami--because the guys are afraid she has too much power and they are afraid Twila won't vote Ami out?
I think BR's analysis is more likely because to Scout--Eliza and Julie are the same. But Eliza won't target Julie if Scout is available to boot and I do not see Scout winning both challenges.
However, we do not see any caps from the other challenge--only the recyclyed II challenge that JK won. That is why I thought Chad may win...but it very well could just be MISDIRECTION for a very boring 2nd challenge (like the memory challenge on the same episode as the puzzle that Eliza solved and Rory did not)
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 03:47 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
You guys are on the ball. Eliza really seems to taking haranging Twila about something, and associating this with something that happened at Reward is all too reasonable.But look at Twila’s posture, same as when Sarge got onto her not wanting to vote out Ami. Just because she’s being ate on by Eliza doesn’t mean she is agreeing with her, and in fact this seems to be Twila's digging in her heels posture. Sets up(arguably)alternate voting scenarios;
Sarge, Chris, Chad vote Ami (if they make the smart choice. I don't think they will be inclined to vote for Julie, they can cling to some hope that Julie can be sweet-talked back onto their team, whereas with Ami or Leanne, they know they have little or no chance. So the choice should be simple for them. And this is assuming they don't just get stupid and decide that Scout, Twilla or Eliza is a better target).
Leanne and Ami vote sarge (if they are smart). This and the men’s vote are the most predictable. Eliza votes Scout. Due to events at RC, and predictable according to previous analyses.
Scout votes Eliza. Eliza can't keep her mouth shut around Scout, (not a difficult prediction), and Scout targets Eliza in response.
Julie she joins Eliza to vote out scout OR she joins men to vote out Ami (her smart choice I think , her only viable chance of surviving long term is to knock out the binding force for the women's team, then join them to put the pieces back together with herself in a more secure position), OR she joins Twilla and votes out Sarge or Ami. Sarge 2
Ami 3
Scout 1
Eliza 1
Julie and Twilla ?
Leaving Twila and Julie the swing votes again
If either one of the two go to boot Ami, she’s gone.
But both have to vote Sarge for Sarge to be gone. Therefore best bet is that Ami goes. I think there is a large chance Twilla will vote with the guys. And if Julie counts votes accurately, she will too.
I do have a bias here, If Sarge goes, it becomes a week to week guy-offing game, but if Ami goes, the principal cohesive factor for the women’s team poofs away . The women are leaderless but numbers wise, they are still dominant. The week to week is a lot less predictable. I think if Ami goes the game will be more interesting.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 04:56 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-04 AT 04:57 PM (EST)I was thinking about something like this, too. Eliza (or Julie if E wins IC) -- gets "hatred" votes from Scout and Twila (who think the men are with them)
Scout -- gets "hatred" votes from Julie and Eliza (who think the men are with them)
Sarge -- gets "female alliance" votes from Ami and Leann
Ami -- gets "male alliance" votes from Sarge, Chad and Chris, and the boot. What bugs me is that Ami and Leann would be voting in a vacuum from all of the other women in this scenario. I'm not sure I see that happening.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Peachezz 60 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 03:58 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
I can't get out of my head the conversation Twila had with the men when they were discussing who to vote out last week. She insisted Rory first, then Ami. Not eliza, not Scout, not Julie, not Leanne, but Ami. With her saying that why is she cozying up to Ami the way she is? She doesn't really have the ability to hide her true feelings. That's evident even during the torch challenge this week. One of the pics shows her really miffed about something. So it seems Ami has her under her spell too now. But if she is shown, in the torch challenge, how far down the list of the women's alliance she is, she may go back with the men. She may take Eliza with her. So I think it's either Julie or Ami that gets voted out. Julie because she is caught in the lie to Twila, an Ami - probably because I want it that way. But she is getting edited to have much power over the women. Would MB do that if she really were going to go to the end. Would MB show Ami's power this early? He who angers you controls you.
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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 04:23 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Eyemail" |
Does ELiza's featured position (along with Sarge's) make her go up on anyone's list?
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 05:06 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Eyemail" |
"Does ELiza's featured position (along with Sarge's) make her go up on anyone's list? "KLick, her featured position makes her go up on my 'important to this episode' list for sure. I don't think Eliza is going anywhere yet, but I do think she plays a significant role in who will be booted this week. She's all over the promos, just like she was early on in the season. She figures out she's low on the totem pole, doesn't like it at all, and starts shaking things up again. Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 06:09 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Eyemail" |
Klick, Up on my list, not up and out, but up for sure. She's going to last till she is isolated, either by circumstance or her own stupidity. She's smart, but how wise is she, and can she control her mouth?. As a swing voter (we can agree that Julie, Twila and Eliza are obvious swingers?) she can have enough influence on the voting to deflect eviction unless she screws up so badly that everyone wants her off. If these girls are smart, (OK, substitute lucky for smart in Twillas case) their little swingers bloc can significantly affect the TC vote and delay thier ouster till they turn on each other. There are better targets out there than Eliza for almost everyone. She may have pissed Scout off, and she certianly is rising on my list, but for the survivors there are better strategic targets than her. Gut tells me she doesn't go before Ami and Sarge, at least.
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 08:32 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Eyemail" |
I have a hard time with that too, that Eliza would turn on Julie, or even Twila. It sure would be smart for them to stick together, going with whichever other bloc they feel is to their advantage. Flexing their swinger strength as it were, they are a bloc of three, and can vote with the guys to get someone from the burly squad off, or with the women if the guys target one of them. That threat should keep the guys from targeting one of them. So for their (eliza's, and Julie's) purposes, keeping Twila is an advantage. AS you mention, apart, they are likely targets. But if they stick together, they can deflect the TC vote to someone else for a couple of weeks (our weeks). Then they can dominate the womens team and still have a numerical advantage. Great strategy for survival to final four. Would the guys and burlys gang up on them? Maybe. If you could get the two women (one with stated anti male views) and three guys (with stated anti Ami views) to vote together, then this strategy falls apart. I conser the odds to be fairly long that this could be brought about. But how often do we see Survivors completely miss what seem to us in our recliners or in our couches to be obvious strategically advantageous moves, and vote someone out becuse of personal feelings, or out of stupidity (Lex IMO is the best example of this, his believing Rob was the biggest gobbleheaded move I've seen. Apologies to Lex lovers).
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DVABDP 28 desperate attention whore postings
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11-08-04, 09:28 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Eyemail" |
Okay you guys on this board look to deeply into things this episdoe is sooooooooo obvoius and you call you guys spoilers. TDT has no clue why they said Julie they just said that because there was no one else to say they are still scartating there heads as to why she did not go last week!
This week during the reward flaming head challenge Lea/Chris and Chad are out first then Scout takes out Eliza and she knows she would be next in teh order with Julie following. ANYONE REMEMER MARQUESAS Eliza then turns teh table on Scout and they guys want Ami gone first and they take here out by Eliza-Chris-Chad-Lea-Julie and maybe even Twilia vote for Ami
Ami gone first and was said she was a early jury boot!!!!
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-09-04, 10:33 AM (EST)
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55. "RE: Eyemail" |
Okay you guys on this board look to deeply into things this episdoe is sooooooooo obvious and you call you guys spoilers.Um...excuse me....we're looking at everything..the editing, the caps, etc. We'll see how obvious it is come Thursday.... Ami gone first and was said she was a early jury boot!!!! Who said??? source??
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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11-09-04, 04:47 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Eyemail" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-09-04 AT 04:48 PM (EST)Oh, BR, I agree, but when I was new to spoiling I was told by a very wise peep (Volsfan) that you can never be "sure" with spoiling and boots (at least this late in the game) are never "obvious" ...and somebody had to say something and shakes isn't around here much anymore
Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
boy I wish I had shakes' leeway sometimes
et fix very important typo!!! doh
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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
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11-09-04, 02:25 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
she did make it to the final round of the 1st individual immunity. Plus she would win an intellectual challenge quite easily, and post merge intellectual challenges are quite frequent. I think it is very likely that Eliza could win some challenges. She may even go on a darrah-esque streak - and who would ever think that Darrah would have won as many challenges as she did? Burton was the obvious IC winner in s7, but Darrah won. Don't count Eliza out of winning challenges, don't count ehr out of anything actually. I think she's a wild card who is capable of doing anything in this game.
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limDNE 7 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-04, 02:58 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
No matter who wins II this week, a guy will be voted out. Probably Sarge. I've been lurking only since PI, & try really hard to keep the ability to think like the "average viewer". IMO, hardcore fans really really want a man to win this time (me, too) and are trying to construct scenarios to support this. But, I think all the island hoopla about dominant men was to set up 'how cool it is that an all-female alliance made it to the finals'. You know, an underdog kinda thing. Just my $.02.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-10-04, 03:24 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: First Member of Jury: Speculation" |
Welcome to Blows, lim, and your $.02 is always welcome here! Fp And, by the way, I think your thoughts make perfect sense!
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