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pax 56 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-21-04, 04:50 AM (EST) "Post-merge prospects" If the next 3 boots go as Snewser says, we'd be down to 4 of the Flab Five (Lea, Chris, Chad and Rory) and the five-woman alliance (Scout, Ami, Leeann, Eliza and Twila) for the jury phase. That would make for a very interesting TC. Before the swap, it would have been pretty clear: the women would start Pagonging the men. But can Ami keep 'em in line? Will Rory remain loyal to the guys or switch to get rid of nemesis Lea? Will Twila, who is more comfy with the guys, vote with them? Or, as Jeffie suggested, will all alliances be shattered by now?   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Post-merge prospects KObrien_fan 10-21-04 1    RE: Post-merge prospects emydi 10-21-04 2        RE: Post-merge prospects aethelstan 10-21-04 3            So I got an..... emydi 10-21-04 4                RE: So I got an..... volsfan 10-21-04 5                    RE: So I got an..... emydi 10-21-04 6                        RE: So I got an..... aethelstan 10-21-04 7                            RE: So I got an..... volsfan 10-21-04 8                                RE: So I got an..... emydi 10-21-04 9        RE: Post-merge prospects marebear79 10-21-04 11        RE: Post-merge prospects Jims02 10-21-04 14        RE: Post-merge prospects AMAZON 10-21-04 22  RE: Post-merge prospects Oscirus 10-21-04 10  Final 4 = Fat Four? Jims02 10-21-04 12    RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? volsfan 10-21-04 13        RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? Jims02 10-21-04 15    RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? JohnMc 10-21-04 16        RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? volsfan 10-21-04 17        RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? Jims02 10-21-04 18    RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? Shadowbum 10-21-04 21        RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? pmspml5 10-26-04 28            RE: Final 4 = Fat Four? Jims02 10-26-04 30  RE: Post-merge prospects memacmur 10-21-04 19    RE: Post-merge prospects volsfan 10-21-04 20  Where will Rory go? Brownroach 10-25-04 23    RE: Where will Rory go? ScurvyDawg 10-25-04 24        RE: Where will Rory go? Flowerpower 10-25-04 25            RE: Where will Rory go? ScurvyDawg 10-25-04 26                RE: Where will Rory go? Seraphaem 10-25-04 27                    RE: Where will Rory go? Flowerpower 10-26-04 29                        RE: Where will Rory go? forehead 10-26-04 31                        RE: Where will Rory go? sylvester 10-26-04 32                            RE: Where will Rory go? Seraphaem 10-26-04 33                                RE: Where will Rory go? Flowerpower 10-27-04 34                                    RE: Where will Rory go? Seraphaem 10-27-04 35                                        RE: Where will Rory go? Flowerpower 10-27-04 36                                        RE: Where will Rory go? Brownroach 10-27-04 37                                            Tread lightly guys.... emydi 10-27-04 39                                        something doesn't add up Oscirus 10-27-04 38                                            RE: something doesn't add up Seraphaem 10-27-04 40                                                RE: something doesn't add up toddE 10-27-04 41                                                    RE: something doesn't add up Oscirus 10-27-04 44                                                        RE: something doesn't add up Brownroach 10-27-04 47                                                            RE: something doesn't add up toddE 10-28-04 51                                                But do.... emydi 10-27-04 42                                                    RE: But do.... Seraphaem 10-27-04 43                                                    RE: But do.... JazzyJax 10-27-04 45                                                        RE: But do.... Seraphaem 10-27-04 46                                                            RE: But do.... Flowerpower 10-27-04 48                                                                RE: But do.... Seraphaem 10-27-04 49                                                                    RE: But do.... Flowerpower 10-27-04 50

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 07:53 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Post-merge prospects" Remember too that Eliza was never in that alliance, she is a woman but I see her as having no loyalties except to herself and how she can get further in the game. Her best bet would be to pull a flip/flop every other episode and whittle down the major alliance factions. 2004 A S S Trivia Champ   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 10:04 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Post-merge prospects" Right, I agree Katie... the Rob C strategy... but will Rory be with her in the flip flopping...if so, you'd have: Chad Chris Sarge Twila?? Eliza Rory Ami Leann Scout Twila?? The first juror may be Twila because of her real flip floppedness (ala Christie in S Amazon--as opposed to strategic flip floppedness ala Rob C in S Amazon) Then you would have Chad Chris Sarge Eliza Rory Ami Leann Scout When Eliza and Rory become the true deciding votes--do they stick together and strategically take out their strongest competitors, imo, yes--and I think (sorry Katie) Chris may become a casualty bc Rory knows that Chris is the "real" powerhouse of the Flab 3 Then you'd have Chad Sarge Eliza Rory Ami Leann Scout ER continue to flip flop and take out a stronger female either Ami or Leann--I'm going to say Eliza gets rid of Leann first before Ami just because??? Then Chad Sarge Eliza Rory Ami Scout Then VS's SHOWDOWN between RORY and SARGE occurs and guess what, SARGE is demoted to LL Then Chad Eliza Rory Ami Scout At this point its Eliza's turn to take down the MIGHTY WOMAN and Ami is sent to LL--will there be separate sleeping quarters for the women??? Then Chad Eliza Rory Scout Here I think it just depends on who wins II and my thoughts would be Chad (again I think it will be a good story--we've not seen or heard much of Chad except for his prosthesis--but then WHAMMO--the man with the prosthesis makes an immunity run not seen since Colby ) Eliza Rory and Chad get rid of the well liked Scout Then its Chad Eliza Rory I again see Chad winning IC and he picks Rory to go with him to jury because of his personality et al. Then, of course, my Chad wins!! Now you know I have skewed my analysis to fit in with whom I would like to win but I think this is a reasonable way to look at things post merge...I even think I have this as my PTTE (FOR NOW ) Regardless of who wins, etc. Rory and Eliza will be key in every vote!! Handcrafted by RollDdice Can I get an Amen?   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-04, 10:20 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Post-merge prospects" I can see how that could happen but I have a slightly different outcome. I have the same final 6 as you (I just changed my PTTE yesterday) and Lea is voted off first Then Ami realizes that Eliza is playing both sides comes to Chad to make a pact to vote out Eliza This leaves Scout, Ami, Chad and Rory Scout is out next because it was done in exchange for Chad's vote for Elize at F5. At F3, Ami wins the final IC but chooses to turf Chad who is popular and well-liked and takes Rory who is disliked to F2. However, the jury (specifically Chad, Eliza, Scout) is pissed at Ami for doing so and, as a result, Ami loses in a 4-3 vote thus fulfilling the irony initial words of 'I'm not used to being second to a man' as well as the million-dollar statement from the opening show when Rory says: "I took the fact that they didn't come after me with spears to mean that I was welcome in the island". That is, the winner is the only person that the island did not immediately reject. Hey it's possible. I think the fact that Rory can swim (and did well in last week's RC grabbing at least 2 markers) shows that anything is possible for him. ©IceCat: the name says it all.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 10:27 AM (EST) 4. "So I got an....." A from Stan--I'll take it Really at F6, I see anything happening because it comes down to II then. Ami, if she is there, may have an advantage if F3 challenge is a balance (which it usually is now)over Chad with his prosthesis--but in my scenario he triumphs above it and is VICTORIOUS Handcrafted by RollDdice Ok, even I think I went too far on my Chad loving there   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 10:33 AM (EST) 5. "RE: So I got an....." No you didn't   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 10:39 AM (EST) 6. "RE: So I got an....." Well, I think I did with the same F6 Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004 A (as in first syllable of A-men)not A like a grade in school   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-04, 11:17 AM (EST) 7. "RE: So I got an....." I think that Doc was saying that you didn't go too far in your Chad loving. Not that you didn't get an A from me. Good pun too! Got an 'A' from a man, if you get another that makes it A-men? I noticed that. ©IceCat: the name says it all.   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 11:45 AM (EST) 8. "RE: So I got an....." Yeah Stan you were right in your observations as to what I was talking about. I want to say that I don't know if I would put Twila on the women's alliance any more. I think she does bond better with the men and I think she will "think" she is better off with them.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 12:52 PM (EST) 9. "RE: So I got an....." I guess I'm catching that "blond" disease from you doc But Chad is just so mmmmmm.... Oh, thanks Stan, I wasn't sure if that would be noticed, usually my puns are so lame..... Handcrafted by RollDdice   Top

marebear79 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 10-21-04, 02:57 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Post-merge prospects" Hi, I'm a long-time lurker, first time poster. I think that Eliza and Rory will be very important in votes; however, Survivor history shows us that (with the sad exception of All Stars) power couples usually get broken up quickly. Eliza and Rory, unless their alliance is completely secret, will be targeted once their voting strategy is revealed. They will be easily agreed upon as targets by both alliances of three (Ami-Scout-Leeann, Lea-Chad-Chris). For this reason I think that only one of them or neither will be final two. And it would take some pretty skillful maneuvering by the one of those two remaining to make it to the end!   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 03:51 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Post-merge prospects" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-04 AT 03:53 PM (EST) I don't really see the Eliza/Rory connection. Rory might just be saved this week because... A. Lisa was deadwood for the women anyway and wasn't a part of Ami and Scout's alliance. B. Yasur doesn't go to TC again until the merge (after Lisa). ...Unless I see *something* develop, I don't see the connection between them. A JSlice 2003 Halloween Special   Top

AMAZON 98 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-21-04, 09:14 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Post-merge prospects" I dont think that Eliza and Rory could go that long switching alliances week to week. Someone would catch on eventually...didn't Jon & Burton try this in Pearl Islands for about 4 TC's before the ladies finally caught on? But a Rory-Eliza alliance would be a classic Survivor Odd Couple!   Top

Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-21-04, 02:31 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Post-merge prospects" ther are a few points that I consider when thinking about this. Jeff's theory of girl power would have to be post merge as there really hasn't been any indication of it so far. being that it would occur post merge I would say that chad and Chris are the first two to go. Due to the sarge being in the family challenge spoiler Id say twila would be next. Sarge being the odd man out goes next. Heres where it gets hard. Id say that leann is the next one out and after her goes Eliza due to a loss in the next tie breaker. Whoever wins the final immunity out of rory and Ami drops scout. Rory wins the f2 thereby making Ami's words of not finishing second to a man ironic.   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 03:40 PM (EST) 12. "Final 4 = Fat Four?" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-04 AT 03:47 PM (EST) **WARNING! HIGHLY SPECULATIVE POST AHEAD! DON'T BELIEVE ANY OF THIS STUFF THAT I WROTE, CUZ IT'S JUST GOING TO CHANGE TOMORROW ANYWAY** Well, I just updated my PTTE, so I've been thinking about this... I'm beginning to toss around the Most Boring Season Ever Theory. Post-merge, what's the most boring thing that could happen? A Pagonging, right? That's the beginning of the thought process. At first glance, based on the numbers, it looks like the women are going to Pagong the men. After booting Lisa, John K, and Julie, here's what we'll have left: Women vs. Men Eliza/Ami/Twila/Scout/Leann vs Lea/Rory/Chris/Chad Logically, there's the most obvious Pagonging. What I propose is an alternate theory. Remember the Amazon. This is key. One thing we learned is that tribal lines do not necessarily work, post-merge. Oh, they're there. Jenna/Heidi still had their alliance against people like Butch. In Survivor Amazon, after Jeanne and Shawna's boot, the men had a huge advantage going into the merge. Roger foolishly assumed that Alex, RobC, and Matt would join up with he and Dave, and boot one of the women. Alas, as history tells us, the New Jaburu began the Pagonging. RobC messed up a true Pagonging though. What I propose is something a little more Thailand-esque. Perhaps we need to be looking at the two New Tribes? New Lopevi and New Yasur? New Lopevi vs. New Yasur Lea/Chris/Twila/Chad vs Rory/Ami/Eliza/Scout/Leann How will the merge break down? Well, it depends on what happens this next episode. 1. Lea, Chris, and Chad are tight, AND ended up on the same tribe together. Surely, you can't separate these guys. So, you got one block of Lea/Chris/Chad. That's one piece of the puzzle. 2. Although Rory will be "saved," he'll be sure to harbor resentment against his New Yasur Tribe. It's very likely that he'll run back to his Fat Four. 3. Twila will be an interesting swing vote. She will be saved by the guys twice, PLUS she gets along with them really well (unlike Rory). I wouldn't be surprised to see her hop onto a New Lopevi alliance + Rory. Seriously. 4. Ami's sudden little peak in face time is very interesting. I'm expecting an earlier boot than we assumed. Possibly right after the merge. 5. The women's "old" alliance might live up to its name. This alliance doesn't seem as strong as the men's. They don't even vote as a unit (eh, Eliza?). I'm having serious doubts about these women succeeding. Here's my tentative list. Tentative is an important word. It essentially depends on what happens in the next couple of episode. Merge: 9. Ami -Targeted by Rory and New Lopevi, perhaps. -Twila never seemed to close to her anyway. -Probably the strongest female over there. -Building negative face time. 8. Leann (Note: after Leann, we'd have more men than women) 7. Twila 6. Eliza 5. Scout (weakest female) Final Four = Fat Four This theory would fit in with the rumor that Eliza, Scout, and Lea make the Final 6. This is still a rumor though. Should be interesting to see what develops. A JSlice 2003 Halloween Special   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 03:50 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-04 AT 03:54 PM (EST) Jims, I am totally picking-up what your putting-down on Twila! I don't think Twila will go back to the women post merge. She is getting along very well with the men. However, I don't agree with you on her being number 7! She will be on the dominate team and I see her going deeper than Eliza and maybe even Scout. Also, you say that your theory fits with the rumor that Eliza Scout and Lea make the final four but you have the Fat Four. Eliza and Scout are not part of your proposed final four. I am confused again...am I having a blonde moment? ETA: I also want to point out that if JohnK. and Julie are the next two (after tonight), NuLopevi will have by far a more powerful team. This means they will lose two IC's in a row. There must be a couple of puzzle IC's because I don't see NuLopevi throwing two IC's in a row! Director of Public Relations for GAWKUR!   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 03:53 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" The family rumor was for the Final 6. Originally I typed "Final 4" but quickly edited it. I'm surprised anyone saw that in time. Every Spoiler post is 40% original thought, 60% edit   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-21-04, 04:14 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" I think you have a lot of good ideas on that Jims, so let me offer my commentary. New tribes: Lea/Chad/Chris/Twila and Ami/Scout/Leanne/Eliza/Rory I think we have identified the solid cores as: Lea/Chad/Chris and Ami/Scout/Leanne The swings are: Twila (she bonds with the guys, plus has strong ties to the girls), Eliza (never had an alliance w/anyone - actually has the power that Christy never exercised effectively), and Rory (is making some in roads with the girls, but definitely is part of the fat 5 minus 1) If Eliza, Scout, and Lea are F6, that means that 3 of the following 6 also make the family reward challenge: Chad/Chris/Ami/Leanne/Eliza/Twila 3 of them stay, 3 of them go. There are so many different ways of playing this out that it will make post merge action VERY fun (especially since they could have changed the name of this season to Survivor: Dullsville). The women do have a numeric advantage, but we know that Eliza played a slick card in order to keep herself around. She turned the boot that was supposed to be on her into a boot of Dolly. She could still do this, but it would be at a cost. If she rides it out with the women, she'll stay until F5. If she flops and goes with the men, she's still out at F5. So it wouldn't make sense for her to do a Rob C flop UNLESS she has another move up her sleeve. She needs to get Twila with her to start voting off women, but also get in with Rory. They can get rid of a guy first, then she'll have some ins with the women. Get rid of Chris. Then the girls are up 5/3. Then they vote out Ami because of her strength. Leaves: Scout/Leanne/Chad/Lea/Eliza/Rory/Twila You have a misfit alliance, and 2 groups of what is left of the original alliances, now made of 2 people. If the misfit 3 pair up with either of fat 2 or the old ladies, they all still make it to F6 by booting either Chad (leaving Lea) or Leanne (leaving Scout). The best thing that sets up, though, is a new alliance. It would be the misfit 3, and then 3 people whose original alliances failed them. (Didn't we say that revealed alliances never win - except Romber?) Those 3 have no choice to align and to force a tie. Or someone betrays an alliance (always the better move) to make sure that they make F4. The possibilities are so great that I can only begin to think of the combos. But because this is all speculation, I just want to say that while Jims PTTE may come to pass, I agree that it is still speculation... just like mine.   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 04:22 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" I am liking this Survivor much better than All Stars! I don't think it is dullsville at all! However, that isn't why I posted here: Jiffy was quoted in a pre-season interview that starting alliances did not workout at all. Right? Can someone remember the exact quote? Director of Public Relations for GAWKUR!   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 04:31 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-04 AT 04:31 PM (EST) Great analysis, JohnMc. Speculation is fun, eh? I'm not so sure about an Ami boot after a Chris boot. Booting Chris would likely make Sarge and Chad angry at Twila, unless she had nothing to do with it. Maybe if Rory and Eliza really do pair up, but I still don't see it yet... A JSlice 2003 Halloween Special   Top

Shadowbum 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 10-21-04, 06:18 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" As a reminder, when JP was interviewed before this season started, he said that one interesting thing about this season was that during the second half, it was anybody's game--hardcore alliances shattered. If that holds, the current alliances can't be relied on to predict the post-merge fallout.   Top

pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-26-04, 03:36 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" Yes but I think this could also be missdirection. Since the results may be obvious there is always the hint in the back of our mind but "JP said" - how many other things did he say that never happene?   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-26-04, 08:49 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Final 4 = Fat Four?" Yeah, I remember an interview from MB or Jiffy last year, stating that Amber and RobM aren't the F2. That quote was for fighting pre-existing spoilers though. PhoenixMons rocks!   Top

memacmur 359 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-21-04, 04:51 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Post-merge prospects" My personal thought on how alliances might develop.... I could see the gender alliances falling, as hinted at by Jiffy. I'm then left trying to figure out where everyone goes attitude-wise. Also accepting that Snewser's pre-merge spoiler is correct, this left me with the following groups: Leaders: Sarge/Scout Hard working (foot soldiers if you will): Twila/Chad Team Go ladies: Ami/Leann Not wanting to work, but happy to scheme: Rory/Eliza Somewhere in between: Chris Basically, I could easily see Sarge/Scout/Twila/Chad as one faction up against the remaing 5, with Chris as a bit of a wildcard. Going back to his comments from the 1st episode, I could really see him emerging as the 'player' of this season's survivor, so watch for him to flip-flop and try to keep himself positioned for a favorable final 2 pairing (if he can make it that far)... MEmacmur   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-04, 05:06 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Post-merge prospects" I could see the women falling apart. Hell, they are not solid in their own tribe now. However, it would be a huge shock to me to see Chris/Sarge/Chad split! Director of Public Relations for GAWKUR!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-04, 05:43 PM (EST) 23. "Where will Rory go?" I'm wondering where Rory is going to fit in post-merge. Rory told the women that he can't go back to the men (i.e. the Flab Three) because they would accuse him of selling out Travis. I think at the time he was using this as a line to convince the women that he was trustworthy, more so than that he actually believed it was true. But, apparently it may be true. Sarge, at least, seems to have written Rory off, replacing him with Twila in his final 4 scenario. Is that just because Sarge thinks Yasur will boot Rory before they get to the merge? Maybe. Or is it because he really doesn't want Rory in his alliance anymore? And what about Chad and Chris? If Rory makes it to the merge, I think he will fully expect to get back in with the Flab 3. He knows he can't insinuate himself into a core position in a women's alliance. He'll be happy to shake himself free of the Yasur women. But if he sees that he's been supplanted by Twila and maybe even Julie in the Flab 3's plans, who is he going to side with? It seems like Rory is destined to be in a no-man's land in this game from now on. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

ScurvyDawg 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-25-04, 06:50 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Where will Rory go?" I'm guessing that Rory forms an alliance with Eliza and that those two attempt to maintain themselves at the balancing point between the other two alliances. E/R don't have to switch alliances every week to do this, they could pull it off by switching alliances every two weeks. One possible boot order follows (this assumes that Ami makes it to f4): f9; Ami/Leanne/Scout/Eliza/Rory vote off Twila who is a member of the Sarge/Chris/Chad alliance. E/R will want to boot Twila first since they fear that she might switch back to the A/L/S alliance. f8; Ami/Leanne/Scout/Eliza/Rory boot Chris. Chris is booted because Rory considers him to be the leader of the guys. f7; Eliza/Rory join with Sarge/Chad to boot Leanne. They would boot Ami, but Ami wins immunity. f6; Eliza/Rory/Sarge/Chad boot Scout. They would boot Ami, but Ami wins immunity. f5; Eliza/Rory join with Ami to boot Sarge. They boot Sarge because he is a greater immunity threat than Chad. f4 and f3 are very dependent on who wins immunity. f4; If Eliza, Rory, or Chad wins immunity they boot Ami. If Ami wins immunity she boots Rory b/c he's a greater immunity threat than Chad or Eliza. f3; If Eliza or Rory wins immunity they will take the other person to f2. If Chad or Ami wins they'll take Rory or Eliza to f2.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-04, 09:14 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Where will Rory go?" LAST EDITED ON 10-25-04 AT 09:19 PM (EST) I don't know Scurvy, I can see some holes in your argument. First off I don't know if Twila will be the first boot post merge. I also don't think that Rory is going to jump ship back to the Lopevi's. He knew he was low man on their totem pole, and he knows that Sarge despises him and he can see that the majority of the people left are women. I think Rory will sit tight with the Yasur's at first. I don't think that Twila will be their most likely boot target at F9 because although she has jumped sides and is solid with the men, she is not an immunity challenge threat. I'd be willing to bet that one of the stronger guys, Chris or Lea will be out at F9. I think an awful lot will depend on who wins the IC's. I'd be willing to bet that the Yasur's don't necessarily target Chad right off as they sympathize with him and he's kind and reserved and a good worker around camp. If Chris, Chad, or Lea wins the next immunity, then I could see Twilla getting the boot for betraying the women....but I definately think she'll see F8. At this point I think we'll see some real side jumping namely from Eliza, so I would'nt be surprised to see Leann go around here F7. That brings us to F6, family reward where we know that Scout, Eliza, and Rory have visits. At this point I predict Lea will get the boot...I think Chris will get it at F9...when they merge and his fate is sealed by the women. But this could be vice versa with Lea getting the boot at F9 and Chris at F6. F5-Perhaps Rory will go here as Scout/Ami/Eliza give him the boot. F4-So long Eliza, as Ami holds truer with Scout F3-Chad/Ami/Scout F2-Chad/Ami or Ami/Scout Perhaps Eliza will make F3 and Scout will go at F4. Then I think that Eliza could make F2, if she makes F2 I see her taking Ami with her. Just speculation....of course! ETA: I did want to say that I agree with Jims02 that Ami could indeed be an early post merge boot as the physical force of the women she has a big target on her back. If she does'nt go out strong she could go around F8. FWIW!   Top

ScurvyDawg 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-25-04, 11:07 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Where will Rory go?" Maybe so FP, but I sure hope Rory or Eliza makes it to f2. For the Twila boot to occur at f9 I'm assuming that Eliza and Rory will have a secret alliance before the f9 TC and have plans for trying to switch between the other two alliances to boot most of their competitors. If this is so (a big if), then Eliza/Rory will want to boot Twila at f9 b/c Twila is the one player that might align herself with either of the other alliances. For example, if A/L/S/E/R decide to boot Chris at f9, Twila might join with NuYasur before the vote and contribute to booting Sarge, or she (Twila) might rejoin NuYasur before f8. If Twila rejoined, then E/R lose their leverage b/c if they joined with the Lopevi guys it would be a 4-4 vote at f8. Instead of risking the 4-4 vote, Eliza would stay with the women at f8. So, E/R have to get rid of Twila before booting any of the guys if they want to ensure that they maintain leverage. On the other hand, if Ami makes the boot decision she'll want to boot Chris or Sarge since they are the leaders of the other alliance. So, if Twila goes at f9 that will be a strong indicator that E/R are pulling the strings. If Chris or Sarge goes at f9, then Ami is in charge and the likely boot order is Chris, Sarge, Chad, Rory, Twila, Leanne, and Scout with Eliza and Ami in f2. But, this boot order isn't consistent with the editing that we've been getting from MB this season. So, it seems that Rory is the person with the most motivation to set himself at the balancing point between the other alliances. He's the ultimate rat on a hot tin roof. He felt very vulnerable when he was part of the guys alliance, and based on the previews for episode 7 he probably feels just as vulnerable with the women's alliance. So, he'll probably be looking to play off the men's and women's alliances against each other. The editing so far indicates that Eliza should be very comfortable with her alliance with Ami. So I'm not sure why she would want to join with Rory to bounce between the two alliances.   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-25-04, 11:28 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Where will Rory go?" I wouldn't put too much faith in Rory staying too long after the merge. I have nothing else to add. S.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-26-04, 08:35 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Where will Rory go?" I would consider him early post-merge, if it were'nt for the family visit spoiler....does'nt that name Eliza, Scout and Rory visitors???   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-26-04, 09:02 PM (EST) 31. "RE: Where will Rory go?" At least Eliza and Lea, but TDT told us to not put too much stock in it.   Top

sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-26-04, 09:12 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Where will Rory go?" >I would consider him early post-merge, >if it were'nt for the >family visit spoiler....does'nt that name >Eliza, Scout and Rory visitors??? I remember it as naming Sarge, Eliza & Scout. I keep coming up with different scenarios for the post-merge boots, but it's really difficult. I would think the biggest immunity challenge threats will be Ami & Chad. It just seems to me that Scout is going to bond with Chad, and protect him from the women's votes. The first jury boot will depend on individual immunity of course, but I can see Chris pushing to boot Ami. All it takes is the new fab 4 + Rory, and Ami would be gone. Bubba said that the plan was for he, Rory & Chris to be final 3. That leaves out Sarge & Chad. Maybe Twila & Sarge join Leann, Scout & Chad to be the majority alliance? Stranger things have happened, lol. Sylvester (just call me CAT)   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-26-04, 11:51 PM (EST) 33. "RE: Where will Rory go?" LAST EDITED ON 10-26-04 AT 11:56 PM (EST) The visitors bearing news(papers) from home ... Justin (Eliza's boyfriend), Kris (Son of Sarge), and Dr. Carol-Ann Washburn (Scout's life partner). Of course this is just speculation on my part. Seraphaem   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 09:18 AM (EST) 34. "RE: Where will Rory go?" Thanks for noting that the spoiler "rumor" for the family visit reward included Lea, Eliza, and Scout. Hmmm, that could mark Rory for an earlier boot. I think it would be wise for him to stay with the Yasurs/women rather than run back to his original alliance. If he shows any sign of disloyalty to the girls, he's outta there, pronto! I do agree that Chris and Ami are great post merge targets as they are strong and physical(with the exception of Chris on the balance beam, that is), so I do see one of them as an earlier post merge boot, I have a feeling it will be Chris, as his demise will indeed be at the hands of the women. I would absolutely love to see Scout get in cahoots with Chad and therefore Twila and Lea. Would love to see Chad "protected". I just can not see Ami making it to the F3 as she is a real threat physically, and she's vengeful, she'll make some enemies. I could see Leanne outlasting Scout if Leanne and Eliza scheme to boot Scout, but perhaps she'll be protected in turn by Chad? Here's what I'm speculating now: Early post merge boots: Chris, Twila, Rory Mid post merge boots: Lea, Ami, Leanne Final Three: Eliza, Scout, Chad Time will tell!   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-27-04, 12:53 PM (EST) 35. "RE: Where will Rory go?" I will now detract this speculation. It seems that the aforementioned family members never made it to Vanuatu. This information has been confirmed to me as 100%. Seraphaem   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 12:59 PM (EST) 36. "RE: Where will Rory go?" It seems that the aforementioned family members never made it to Vanuatu. Wow, now that really sheds a different light on things then! I'll have to rethink all of this speculation...   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 01:03 PM (EST) 37. "RE: Where will Rory go?" Sera -- just to make sure I am reading this correctly -- you're saying it's been 100% confirmed to you that these three people did NOT go to Vanuatu? Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 01:12 PM (EST) 39. "Tread lightly guys...." --the Lisa pick-- wasn't that 100% too... unless there is a source from say an airline (like at Sucks a few seasons back I think PI) I'm going to remain skeptical... Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004   Top

Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-27-04, 01:10 PM (EST) 38. "something doesn't add up" You are saying that those threes family members don't visit and and according to you rory is gone early post merge. Thats four people out of the final nine that fail to make it to the final 6 where does the other person come from?   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-27-04, 01:18 PM (EST) 40. "RE: something doesn't add up" This is exactly what I'm saying. The Lisa abboration wasn't just confined to me but others as a result of the trickling down of info. We were all burned to some degree, but we now see that the continued order of John K. and Julie leaving next will be on track. I am confirming this as 100%. These family members do not go to vanuatu. S.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-27-04, 02:08 PM (EST) 41. "RE: something doesn't add up" Ok, So Julie is the 10th place finisher. Those three family members don't go means Lea, Eliza and Scout have to be 9,8,7 in whatever order. F6: Ami, LeeAnn, Twila, Chris, Chad, Rory. Now, Seraphaem, you also say Rory doesn't last long post-merge. Maybe the family visit is with only five players left. In any case, if this info is all 100%, obviously F5 is Chad, Chris, Ami, LeeAnn, Twila. This would lend great credibility to the theories of Ami coming in second to a man, most likely Chad. This would also be a very boring F5. With the interesting characters of Rory and Eliza, I thought this could be a good endgame, but, well, LeeAnn and Twila. Excuse the snoring. final note: I have read other spoilers that Rory is instrumental in Sarge's ouster. Since apparently Rory doesn't last nearly as long as most of us thought, Sarge must leave as probably the first jury member, 9th place, followed by Eliza, Scout and Rory.   Top

Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-27-04, 02:56 PM (EST) 44. "RE: something doesn't add up" I don't think that the family reward is at f5. When would the car reward be. Akso for the most part Scout makes no sense as someone leaving early if for the most part because she presents no threat at all. sarge leaving makes little sense either especially if we are to believe that rory leaves to his ouster , if rory has that much say as to who stays and who goes why the hell would he be gone at f6. The last fact is just going off of what jp said about the women determined to stick together and the feeling of girl power when is this suposed to happen if meembers of the yassur tribe start getting pagonged.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 03:19 PM (EST) 47. "RE: something doesn't add up" Where has it been "spoiled" that Rory is instrumental in Sarge's ouster? I've read no such thing. VerucaSalt has been speculating in her editing thread that Rory and Sarge are due for a rematch after the merge, but that's about it... Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-28-04, 05:33 PM (EST) 51. "RE: something doesn't add up" I can't remember where I read that, except it was on this site, saying something about a rift between Sarge and Rory when they come back together and Rory outlasts Sarge. It is so odd to me that Julie goes next week that I wonder if perhaps EPMB has not learned from the fiasco of Thailand and may again be delaying the merge. That would also explain the seeming unlikely boots of Rory, Eliza and Scout before, say, LeeAnn. Just doesn't explain why SargeLea would go soon.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 02:12 PM (EST) 42. "But do...." other visitors for Eliza Sarge and Scout do come at family visit? or are you saying Eliza Sarge and Scout are the 1st 3 boots after the merge Above you said: I wouldn't put too much faith in Rory staying too long after the merge. I have nothing else to add. So if Eliza Sarge and Scout do not get any visitors, and they are out at F9-8-7 isn't Rory leaving at F6 "long after the merge"--to me, it would seem the 4 boot after the merge is long after.... Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-27-04, 02:55 PM (EST) 43. "RE: But do...." I'm only stating what was given to me by a reliable source just today to correct me on my speculation. This person is well known and respected in the community and I'll leave it up to him to come forth and re-confirm this. I won't add any speculation as to Sarge, Eliza or Scout leaving earlier than expected. Rory, on the other hand ... S.   Top

JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-27-04, 02:57 PM (EST) 45. "RE: But do...." I second that question. If not those three family members specifically, have you heard of others?   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-27-04, 03:09 PM (EST) 46. "RE: But do...." I haven't heard of others with family members visiting. From what I understand part of the reward includes letters and newspapers from home. No physical visits. S.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 04:00 PM (EST) 48. "RE: But do...." Do we dare speculate that there is no family visitor reward this season....CBS in a budget crisis of some kind....too much money spent on the fake volcano???   Top

Seraphaem 66 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-27-04, 04:27 PM (EST) 49. "RE: But do...." I wouldn't say that as we still have a bit further to go in the show. I'm just stating that the family members listed (Justin, Kris and Carol Ann) do not go to Vanuatu. S.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-27-04, 07:32 PM (EST) 50. "RE: But do...." So, we are not to infer anything by the fact that family members (Justin, Kris, and Carol Ann) do not go to Vanuatu, loved ones of Eliza, Lea, and Scout respectively. But, we also can not rule out that there may not even be family members coming down this season. To me, it seems that this is a given, as there have been loved ones attending every single season without exception. So, in my mind, either Eliza, Lea, and Scout are booted prior to the family reward, or that they have loved ones come down who are not Justin, Kris, or Carol Ann.....   Top

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