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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-14-04, 02:12 AM (EST) "EP5 Hindsight" Hindsight Hindsight is a valuable tool for evaluating our speculation and measuring the accuracy of our assumptions. This week has been particularly interesting, because much of the spoiling evidence analyzed was inconclusive and many questions remain unanswered. As we prepare to watch EP5, we can look for the answers and use this feedback to sharpen our spoiling skills for the future… Vidcap Analysis: Was Rory wearing a yellow buff while running during the IC, or is this an optical illusion created by the blurriness and exaggerated shaking. Was his buff colorized or not? Who was sitting on theleft corne of the platform…Chad, Eliza or or both? Was the “morning light” observed in these vidcaps a valid indicator that these two events took place on the same day, or did we see similar lighting conditions repeated on different days? Was this Chris or someone else? Why did Ami move forward to greet the Chief? Did it have something to do with her selection or was there another explanation? Why were they looking off to their left? Why were Ami and Twila both wearing a flower behind their ear? What was the significance? Did we overlook a clue? Was Sarge the “one chief” selected for both tribes or did Ami or one of the other women also have a role to play? Was the “one chief” involved in the swap/tribal shuffle or did the chief play some other role in the show? How did the “swap” work after Jeff said “drop your buffs”. Was it alternating pick, gender balanced or was the “one chief” asked to select individuals for swapping? SeeBS MISDIRECTION: “A trip for one tribe leads to bonding and makes one castaway very happy.” “One castaway is caught by a tribemate while attempting to communicate secretly with a member of the opposing tribe.” Who was “very happy” on the reward trip to the waterfall? Eliza, Twila or someone else? Who was the tribemate caught communicating? Did it make them more of a target at TC? VANUATU POST: from the Vanuatu Daily Post: “Mele Cascades was closed for a 'private' function to film a survivors challenge 'reward' on Thursday 8th. The winning contestants had a full-on meal supplied to them near the waterfall in which they were swimming with nobody to bother them”. Was the information provide by the Vanuatu Post accurate? CHALLENGE PERFORMANCES: How did the various contestants perform in the challenges? Was the men’s large lung capacity a factor in the dive challenge as speculated? Who sat out, if anyone? Was Scout a liability to her tribe? Could Chad compete in the running challenge or will his prosthesis be viewed as a weakness? SNEWSER’S MEMO: Based on our apparent knowledge of the pre-merge boots, was there any foreshadowing or other clues to indicate the fate of Travis, John K. and Julie? ANYTHING ELSE? Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: EP5 Hindsight KObrien_fan 10-14-04 1  RE: EP5 Hindsight Flowerpower 10-14-04 2    FCs forehead 10-14-04 3        RE: FCs Flowerpower 10-14-04 4  RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba ... Flowerpower 10-14-04 5    RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba ... KObrien_fan 10-15-04 6        RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba ... Brownroach 10-15-04 10            RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba ... sylvester 10-18-04 15    RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba ... KLicK 10-15-04 7        RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba ... Brownroach 10-15-04 12  RE: EP5 Hindsight RudyRules 10-15-04 8    RE: EP5 Hindsight VerucaSalt 10-15-04 9        RE: EP5 Hindsight emydi 10-15-04 11            RE: EP5 Hindsight Witless 10-17-04 14                RE: EP5 Hindsight Outfrontgirl 10-18-04 16                    RE: EP5 Hindsight Witless 10-18-04 17                        RE: EP5 Hindsight KObrien_fan 10-18-04 18                            RE: EP5 Hindsight emydi 10-18-04 19  RE: EP5 Hindsight Outfrontgirl 10-17-04 13

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-04, 07:11 AM (EST) 1. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" Was John K's buff colorized in the running challenge since he wasn't shown in the water challenge and Rory was. 2004 A S S Trivia Champ   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-04, 07:26 AM (EST) 2. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" Wholeheartedly agree, KB, we could learn alot from this episode...other questions I have are: Was Leann the first confessional, and if not was it one of the men, who had returned from tribal council the night before...is there a pattern emerging regarding first confessionals? What was the sequence of events throughout the episode, did we predict this accurately...was the water challenge reward and the running challenge IC? And for emydi, is there a link between CBS eyemail and the bootee?!   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-14-04, 10:57 AM (EST) 3. "FCs" "Was Leann the first confessional, and if not was it one of the men, who had returned from tribal council the night before...is there a pattern emerging regarding first confessionals?" Oh FP, you just had to raise the FC issue Well, never thought I'd bring fanatics data over to spoilers, but for the past few seasons echogirl kept track of all first confessionals for her PTB game now run by KO. As far as I recall (but here you have the data, so go ahead and check - I don't want to see m___r___ easter egg charts though), pre-merge the FC has typically come from somebody returning from TC. (Scroll down in each of these to find the FC data) A.S.S. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID4/2505.shtml PI http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2137&forum=DCForumID4&archive=yes Amazon http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1753&forum=DCForumID4&archive=yes Anyway, for tonight's supposedly action packed ep, they might skip the pattern and go straight to the earthquake "action". forehead   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-04, 01:02 PM (EST) 4. "RE: FCs" Now that's what I call service with a smile, Forehead!!! Thanks, I'll get right to it.....ha!   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-04, 11:52 PM (EST) 5. "RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba Boot" Man, oh man did we miss that one! However, applying the OFG Theory, Brownroach was the first to nail it on reviewing the first previews for episode 5: No John K, no Lisa, no Julie. Some Eliza, some Chris, some Lea, some Twila, some Leann. A ton of Bubba. He also ended his SOTS with the boots as either Lisa OR Travis Way to go, BR...we should have all listened to you! I guess with so many spoilers out there, MK, Orangeena, Sea Flea, and the king, Snewser, all making the accurate picks for this season, up until now, it's easy to be a lemming. But, really we did an awful good job with this very difficult episode and should have concluded differently...we made the boot fit to the spoiler, and not the other way around. I'd say that our vidcap analysis was almost perfect....the person to the left of the floating platform was Scout. But, how on earth could we ever have split the teams the way that they did. We almost nailed the division of the new tribes, with 2 exceptions...Scout and Chad. Two of the peeps that were no where in sight. So considering there were 13 people to divide and we only were for sure about 7 of them, I'd say we did a great job spoiling the new tribes. Most of us(Sorry VS!!!) all speculated that the women would have some role in deciding the teams and at first we primarily thought it was going to be Amy. But, earlier on Thursday, OkieLokie had a post on sucks with a gif of Amy and Lisa both mouthing the word, Scout, and we did deduce that the leader of the women would indeed be Scout. Lea, however, was not the sole chooser of the teams. I think that alot of us felt that the women would have a voice in it as well. I think that we nailed the sequencing...Earthquake, native visitors, drop your buffs, water challenge RC, waterfall reward, IC, scheming/plotting, and TC. We even nailed the challenge winners....even saying that the RC would be extremely close to call...boy was it! We spoiled that Travis would be the one to sit out the water challenge. As we did not know that Scout would be on the Yasur tribe, we did not predict her to sit out. As for her being a liability to her tribe in the challenges, I'd have to say, yes, she's almost worthless. As to Chad not being able to run....wrong...Chad was an awesome runner with his prothesis! Regarding CBS Misdirection, I'd say that both JK and Twila were the happy ones...and we heard arguments for both of them. We also spoiled the survivor signaling to another...thought Bubba/Chris may be involved in that...we knew it had to be members of the fat five. The Vanuatu Press was almost perfectly accurate although I would'nt call potato chips and beer a "full-on meal". OFG Theory: Looking back over the past episodes for this season, the OFG theory has proven to be extremely valid! Kudos to you, OFG! We could have relied solely on that for this episode and made the correct Boot choice! Although I have'nt seen the confessional analysis for episode 5, I'd say that is giving us some pretty accurate indicators of the boot choices as well. I think that we did an outstanding job with this episode, considering the information, or lack there of, that we received. If we had just gone with our own conclusions this week, would we have still nailed the bootee....I think so! Having the big spoiler be wrong is the best thing that could happen to us....as now, we'll rely on our own conclusions!   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-04, 00:13 AM (EST) 6. "RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba Boot" I don't totally agree that we would have gotten the boot based solely on the OFG theory and the vidcaps we had. I know I did mull around the idea of Bubba, or John K being the boot, but kept coming back to Lisa. Was it because I heard it too many times and then saw Snews say so too? Maybe. There was no way to tell for sure that Bubba and Rory were the only men traded to New Yasur except BR's thread about the radio promo gave pause when they said "It's either you or me, one of us is going" And this piece of info came so late in the game. In some ways the surprise was nice. Hindsight is 20/20, now did KB have some foresight when he made this thread BEFORE the episode, almost like he knew a surprise boot was coming... 2004 A S S Trivia Champ   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-04, 10:11 AM (EST) 10. "RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba Boot" LAST EDITED ON 10-15-04 AT 10:24 AM (EST) I don't agree either, Kfan. I'm wondering if the sourced spoilers were set up and then scammed by MB this week. The way the episode was edited, Bubba's prayer getting answered with a surprise Lisa boot by the other women would have worked very well, imo. I was wrong about the radio promo -- it really sounded like Bubba's southern accent on the second part, but Rory made both comments. I don't know if that would have helped either way. And it's true we should have paid more attention to the women mouthing Scout, but I doubt anyone could have predicted the cockamamie way they reorganized the tribes. Even if we did put Scout with Yasur, who would we have switched her with? We still didn't know where Chad, Bubba and Julie were, so the possibilities were many. We took our best guess, that's all we could do. And obviously the misdirection about someone signaling the other tribe turned out to be the pivotal item this week. But it was sitting there all alone, unconnected to anything else in the previews or promos, so it was hard to know what to make of it. Anyway, I don't think we did that badly -- and congratulations to everyone who picked Bubba this week. BTW, you/Krautboy and VS/Forehead were all right: both John K and Twila were pretty happy with their new tribe. Hat's off to all of you! ETA: And we did get one part of the sequence wrong: the Vanuatans visited before the earthquake hit, but it didn't affect anything else. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-18-04, 00:32 AM (EST) 15. "RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba Boot" >ETA: And we did get one >part of the sequence wrong: >the Vanuatans visited before the >earthquake hit, but it didn't >affect anything else. Brownroach, I did post this in the Ep 5 vidcaps, but maybe since it wasn't important overall, or maybe because I'm new here, no one paid attention. "I have been studying the promo vidcaps intently. I'm not sure that this is important at all, but I do believe the natives arrive BEFORE the earthquake. In vidcaps #17, 18 & 19 above, notice Eliza's buff is worn like a kerchief, hanging down in back. I assume because she just woke up. In the earthquake shot - #28 - of Julie & Eliza, Eliza's hair is now pulled back and ready for the day, and her buff is now worn like a headband. I believe the vidcaps of Leann & Travis during the earthquake were originally planned to get their reaction to the natives' visit, I particularly noticed Leann's animated expression right before the tremor." Sylvester (just call me CAT)   Top

KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-15-04, 05:40 AM (EST) 7. "RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba Boot" I think the key thing (besides going with the spiller and making it fit... ) was missing the possibility that there were five women on one tribe. That would have made it harder to "swallow" that Eliza would flip to the men to take out Lisa. I know I was one who said, "The only possible chiefs are Ami, Eliza, Leann, and Lisa" despite the vidcap evidence that they were all looking at Scout. D'oh!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-04, 10:59 AM (EST) 12. "RE: EP5 Hindsight: Post Ep5, Bubba Boot" (besides going with the spiller and making it fit... ) But it didn't exactly not fit, as it turned out. Ami was pissed at Lisa for wanting to give the boys information. Later Eliza said she liked Rory and Travis and Lisa said nervously, "you're not thinking of voting off one of us?" Then we saw Eliza and Leann whispering, some of the women sitting together with Ami smiling like the Cheshire cat; then at TC Scout told Rory and Travis she'd wanted to play the game with them and the fat lady hadn't sung yet. It really looked like there was going to be a surprise in the voting. It was very weird. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-04, 08:37 AM (EST) 8. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" Who was the tribemate caught communicating? Did it make them more of a target at TC? I guess if we had known this for sure, it might have helped! Your 2003 College Football Pool Ultimate Prize Winner!   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-15-04, 09:44 AM (EST) 9. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" LAST EDITED ON 10-15-04 AT 09:44 AM (EST) I feel like we are re-visiting the thread of speculating based on spoilers A spirited debate wasn't it? I proudly stand corrected on the one chief and I plan on having a discussion with Mr. Burnett about continuity. I have never been one to duck when wrong but I've also never been one to really subscribe to anything but the story. This is precisely why I play in my own thread - instead of a week by week; I enjoy the long road better and maintain who is meant for the end, who is gone before the show starts and who is middle of the game casualties. Hence my simple vote with no explanation, I'm not long for week by week Analyzing who goes next when the information is presented is a very hard thing to do; much harder than determining the winner sometimes I commend those who can! The other tools used, OFG and confessions are very helpful, I hope they solidify the end picture or I am in a world of trouble I think that emydi is also someone who needs to be singled out. The eyemail's big picture of Travis and all that. emydi, you may want to think up a name for your theory! And now, I'm off to my playground, it is much safer there   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-15-04, 10:26 AM (EST) 11. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" VS--Thank you, I think I may just play in your thread from now on Let's wait for a few more Eyemails before we start getting crazy by giving me my own theory--all heck will break loose when that happens I was wrong on a lot this week. But that RC--it was close. Stupid ami--more on her in your thread VS!!!! I do think we have to take a step back and use analysis moreso than spoilers. (Aside: Could Snewser have known and put Lisa because he wanted to tell us Orangeena doesnt have all the info. she had in A$$??) And who could have ever dreamed that someone (that freak Scout wait should this be in bashers ) would pick such an awful team. Lea was escatic--he got rid of Rory and the other fattest of the fat five, kept his corporals Chris and Chad and got JK the strongest one left overall...you didn't have to be Dave, the rocket scientist , to figure out which tribe Lea was going to pick!!! Plus he gets naked Julie next week!!! Handcrafted by RollDdice   Top

Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-17-04, 11:45 PM (EST) 14. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" >And who could have ever dreamed >that someone (that freak Scout >wait should this be in >bashers ) would pick such >an awful team. ...you didn't have >to be Dave, the rocket >scientist , to figure out >which tribe Lea was going >to pick!!! Maybe I'm giving Scout too much credit, but I think that was the point. Scout is, or most of us think she is, in an alliance with Ami and LeeAnn. Her goal had to be to make a tribe that included Ami and LeeAnn that Lea wouldn't pick; it sure as heck would have been mine had I been in her shoes. The rest of the team really doesn't matter, because they can be sacrificed if the tribe loses the ICs over and over. So she has her team, she has the protection of her alliance (how long would Scout have lasted if she had made the tribes more balanced physically?) and she managed to split scheming Eliza away from her main alliance buddy, Julie. It didn't take a rocket scientist to see that Rory and Sarge don't get along (this was clear at challenges) and I doubt that she considered Travis much of a force. I don't think she wanted either of the the men as people; they were meant to be cannon fodder and a means of ensuring that Lea would pick the team without Ami and LeeAnn. The disadvantages are that the men's alliance mostly intact and on the same side, and that if Yasur loses all the time to the stronger Lopevi, Yasur is at high risk of being pagonged after the merge. But if Scout's immediate goal was to see to it that she herself lasted as long as she possibly could, then I'd say she did the best job she could of ensuring it.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-04, 00:46 AM (EST) 16. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" Witless, what a great analysis! I hadn't thought it out to that degree. Scout didn't have very long to think out all the ramifications, but yes, she did a good job of keeping her allies together for herself and splitting up the young bowheads. And notice that she didn't pick Lisa one way or the other--perhaps she didn't want her especially but also didn't feel the need to split her off because Lisa's kind of alone at this point. Interesting that she put Julie on the team for Sarge and not Eliza, given that Eliza annoys her so. Perhaps it's a Granny Jan keep your enemies closer deal, and/or she thought Julie would appeal to Sarge more, as clearly more athletic. If she could have managed, it would have been good work to get either Chris or Chad away from Sarge, but that would have been risky as Sarge might then have picked the wrong team (from her perspective). Maybe she doesn't care about winning the challenges. As you point out, she got two men who are expendable, and if Yasur were to keep losing, Twila would be safe. I think that to some extent Scout must want to bring Twila along, as she makes a good shield and she brings a fourth vote to add clout to the 3-person core alliance. All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne   Top

Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-18-04, 03:56 AM (EST) 17. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" LAST EDITED ON 10-18-04 AT 03:56 AM (EST) >Interesting that she put Julie on >the team for Sarge and >not Eliza, given that Eliza >annoys her so. I suspect that she kept Eliza because Eliza is smarter than Julie and therefore both more useful in the types of challenges they had been having and more dangerous unless carefully watched. > I think that to >some extent Scout must want >to bring Twila along, as >she makes a good shield >and she brings a fourth >vote to add clout to >the 3-person core alliance. I'm not sure about Twila. I suspect that she put Twila with the guys because Twila didn't get along too well with the other women and would be happier with the men. They needed Twila to boot the bowheads, but the bowheads are dead (long live the burly girls!). I think putting Twila on Lopevi was a risk; after all, if Twila really does get along better with the men, she could easily side with them after the merge. OTOH, she might be able to use her relationships with the men to make it to the merge and then come back into the fold. But I don't really know; I'm just looking at things from what would be my POV if I were Scout, and the most important thing to me would be to keep my alliance with me so i could make it as far as the merge and regroup then.   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-04, 07:36 AM (EST) 18. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" I agree with you about Scout Wit, and was thinking those same things myself. She even was careful with the distribution of Ami, holding her close and then dealing her last. (besides Lisa who is expendable and therefore not selected to go anywhere) She waited til last to put Ami on a team because she wanted to look over the teams and make sure that she had no way of losing her and then put her with the others she wanted, knowing that she would get what she wanted. In many ways this was a brilliant move, because she not only got what she wanted, she forced Sarge into picking the other tribe which was who she didn't want. If Julie or Twila end up rejoining at merge, so be it, but Scout ensured that her main core would be together. 2004 A S S Trivia Champ S9 PTB is Here, It's hot!!!!!   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-18-04, 10:30 AM (EST) 19. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" I stand corrected. Nice analysis Witless, OFG and Katie...but she's still a freak imho Courtesy of the Amazing Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004 I should just have "I stand corrected in my sig pic!!!!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-17-04, 11:12 PM (EST) 13. "RE: EP5 Hindsight" This looks like a good place for me to eat some crow in front of Herr Krautboy as I couldn't have been more wrong about the one chief thing. I definitely went overboard on the semantics, considering the person talking didn't seem to speak English very well. Duh on me. As was mentioned above, the clue about the intertribal communication bust was really the clue to the boot handed to us. Yet we were so caught up in vidcaps that I think it was neglected. Maybe not by everyone, and not that the vidcap work wasn't stellar. I was mad at myself this week because I had picked Travis to go in the switch the night after I saw the first episode, saw the alliance formed, and put that together with Snewser's memo. It was obvious to me that he was pre-jury because he was going to get swapped. I also noted that Bubba got gratuitous facetime for his homesickness last time, and I felt that was put there to give him pre-boot facetime, pure and simple. So there are two reasons I was pretty sure it was Bubba and yet I was a lemming and let my thinking be swayed by the lack of Bubba boot momentum on the boards. I wavered between Bubba and Lisa all week and in the end was totally guilty of going lemming. I was also guilty of getting caught up in thinking there would be some Cesternino type maneuvering from Eliza (and it did look like she tried, but no go) that would result in a more unlikely boot. However, had I known that the Yasur tribe had five women and not four, I would have gone with Bubba. At 4-3 estimated, I thought Eliza might grab the swing vote position again. As it was with the numbers, Occam's Razor said the women would vote out one of the new males, Rory is on the jury, so it was Bubba. I don't think the team picking mechanism was one we should have guessed. It was new and rather odd. Good for EPM for finding a new variation. I never thought it would work out that they would send two men and two women only ... but then I'm not as smart as Bungler (who was convinced Scout was the 2nd chief)! All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne   Top

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