This week's prediction is brought to you courtesy of some analysis written up by Bebo and Krautboy. Bebo's analysis explains the idea behind the theorized impact of the stranger and the challenge. Kraut's explains who's getting booted... and why.

In summary:

BOOTEE: Brady
RC WINNER: Yasur
IC WINNER: Yasur

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VO: The Survivor castaways are falling apart and a mysterious stranger will affect the tribes in ways they could never imagine.
I'm starting to think the mysterious stranger brings the II to the RC winners' camp.

affect the tribes - This would explain how the stranger's visit to one tribe could affect both. If the losing tribe showed up at treemail to discover...no IC, the II was given to the RC winner, that would cause a lot of discussion and apprehension. That might also prove unsettling enough to make a player talk about going home.

ways they could never imagine - So far, they've had IC's on consecutive days, had the second IC be individual, and had a double TC. What better way to keep them off balance without a major twist than to throw another surprise like this at them? They wouldn't be expecting it, and they certainly wouldn't imagine finding out well after the fact that, oh yeah, they won immunity as well as reward.

It makes sense from an episode title standpoint too. This episode is "Now that's a reward!" I could easily see one of the winners saying that when celebrating the arrival of the II. And next episode refers to shakeups, and I could easily see a player commenting on how shaken up he/she has been by the events of the past few days, even before an earthquake occurs.

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After last week’s double tribal council, we are left with clear majority alliances on each tribe.
At Lopevi, Chad, Chris, Lea and Rory are in control with Travis a loosely aligned member of their voting block. At Yasur, Scout, Leeann, Twila and Ami are in control. Those tribe members not a part of these alliances are vulnerable…

SNEWSER’S “MEMO”:

We have no reason to doubt the reliability of Snewser’s pre-merge boot list. It has proven to be accurate so far and we can use this spoiler to narrow down the list of boot candidates for EP4.

Those remaining to be voted out pre-merge are…

Lopevi: Travis, John K., Brady

Yasur: Julie, Lisa

The OFG THEORY:

The OFG Theory confirms the vulnerability of Travis, Brady, Julie and Lisa, as they are all featured in the promo for EP4. John K., on the other hand, is missing from the promo and therefore probably safe this week.

CONFESSIONAL ANALYSIS:

The editing pattern used in the first three episodes has been to hide the bootee in the episode prior to their boot. They are then given a spike in confessional during their final episode. Again, all but John K. fit this pattern; another indication that John K. is safe in EP4.

THE FAT FIVE:

Travis is the fifth member of the majority alliance at Lopevi. As such he is probably safe in EP4, should the men go to TC. However, the storyline is starting to focus on his weaknesses and vulnerability in the eyes of his alliance partners. His “homesickness” will be viewed as a weakness and he will probably be the target of the minority group at TC. Bubba will get to go home soon, but not in EP4.

MICKEY KNOCKS SPOILER:

When Snewser’s “memo” was first released, Julie was not one of the first eight listed. She was added to the list separately at a later date. It may be that Snewser received additional information about the jury, leaving Julie as the ninth boot, by a process of elimination.

Mickey Knocks, a spoiler who apparently also has access to some inside information, later confirmed that Julie goes “just before the merge”. Julie is probably safe in EP4.

LISA OR BRADY?

By a process of elimination, we are left with a choice between Lisa and Brady. Both have a strategy to survive. Lisa’s “backup plan” was to abandon the young’ns by voting with the majority alliance. Brady’s strategy is to become a provider of sorts. Strategies revealed do not succeed, and neither do theirs, it’s just a question of who goes first?

VIDCAP ANALYSIS:

The previews for this week describe the tribes as “falling apart” as “tempers flair”, yet the only vidcaps showing disharmony at Yasur is immediately after returning from TC. This is contrasted by the Lopevi tribe where the men are shown at their camp, unhappy, appearing paranoid, and apparently biding their time…perhaps waiting to go to TC?

CBS EYE MAIL:

This preview appears to be all about misdirection..."the tides are turning" making the suggestion that Brady may somehow be able to save himself, while the vulnerability shifts to the Yasur tribe where the former alliance falls apart...
This preview gives Brady a little more face time, and also serves as misdirection, intended to leave the average viewer surprised when he is voted out.

CONCLUSION:

Lisa voted with the majority against Eliza and Julie. Eliza is the annoying one, Eliza is the pot stirer, and yet somehow Eliza survives. I'm thinking that Eliza would be next to go on the Yasur if they went to TC this week. It's Eliza who is more likely saved by a swap/reshuffle next week.

Featuring Bubba's homesickness so early in the game seems out of place, unless it's to draw attention away from the more obvious Brady boot. The audience will need to feel that someone other than Brady is vulnerable and the editing scraped the barrel to come up with Bubba's homesickness. Brady tries to become the provider, but the goldfish he spears fails to convince anyone...

The missing IC vidcaps are a little disconcerting, and maybe we will arrive at TC by way of a twist or swap, but in the end the result will be the same...Brady goes this week.